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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One by-product of the UKIP surge – smaller parties like Nat

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One by-product of the UKIP surge – smaller parties like National Health Action have been swamped

As can be seen the party chalked up 18% in the poll taking votes from LAB and the LDs and leaving the blues ahead. Those figures were quite remarkable and suggested that there was an appetite for a non-mainstream party to emerge. There was but not NHA.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2013
    first?

    (Not a position Tories have been used to for a while)
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    The first past the post system has a lot to answer for. No wonder the big two resist meaningful change.
    Charles, any news on vaccines? Been busy in that area recently?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    The first past the post system has a lot to answer for. No wonder the big two resist meaningful change.
    Charles, any news on vaccines? Been busy in that area recently?

    If anyone knows, I'd love to hear about advances in bacteriophage research. The next antibiotic.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The first past the post system has a lot to answer for. No wonder the big two resist meaningful change.
    Charles, any news on vaccines? Been busy in that area recently?

    Closing on my fish deal this week. Already lining up the next one ;-)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    I wouldn't take much notice of that 18% number. The question pushes quite hard to agree to support them, and even then it's not a particularly overwhelming score.

    Galloway is the exception that proves the rule, but it's generally much easier for minor parties to make progress against governments than against oppositions. Rightly or wrongly Labour has the NHS brand sewn up, so these guys were never going to make much progress against them during this parliament.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Blue_rog said:

    The first past the post system has a lot to answer for. No wonder the big two resist meaningful change.
    Charles, any news on vaccines? Been busy in that area recently?

    If anyone knows, I'd love to hear about advances in bacteriophage research. The next antibiotic.

    Tetraphase is a company that has always fascinated me. Suspect that remining existing classes likely to be the way forward for now. Challenge with novel classes is that they get reserved for salvage, so limits the commercial potential
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2013
    Conservatives led by an anti-conservative , Labour led by an inheritance multi-millionaire who hasn't done a hand's turn of work in his pampered life , LibDems led by somebody allergic to liberty and democracy , SNP led by an EUnionist Brussels bankers' boy.

    It's no surprise that UKIP is now the mainstream opposition to this cloaca maxima of bs.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Many congratulations Charles. I hope you find this little thread offers you a bit of comfort.
    Charles said:

    first?

    (Not a position Tories have been used to for a while)

    Charles said:

    first?

    (Not a position Tories have been used to for a while)

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    I don't think you can really draw the conclusion Mike draws without a directly-comparable poll. As Edmund points out, the question which gave rise to that 18% response was highly leading: if Lord Ashcroft were to re-run that exact same question today, who knows what result he would get?

    In fact one could put it the other way round: the evident flakiness of the 18% figure in the 2012 poll should make one wary of the 2013 UKIP poll responses.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2013

    Conservatives led by an anti-conservative , Labour led by an inheritance multi-millionaire who hasn't done a hand's turn of work in his pampered life , LibDems led by somebody allergic to liberty and democracy , SNP led by an EUnionist Brussels bankers' boy.

    It's no surprise that UKIP is now the mainstream opposition to this cloaca maxima of bs.

    Farage is a millionaire former City Banker.

    Hardly the 'man of the people' with soil under his fingernails that you're making him out to be!

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Why haven't the Greens been as effective as UKIP in gaining protest votes? Part of it is that the left of centre protesters are currently happy enough with Labour, but the Greens have comprehensively failed to strike a distinctive voice. The opportunity was (and is) there. Since whatever we do is going to be expensive for all of us, we may as well structure the deficit funding in such a way that makes us all feel more moral.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Conservatives led by an anti-conservative , Labour led by an inheritance multi-millionaire who hasn't done a hand's turn of work in his pampered life , LibDems led by somebody allergic to liberty and democracy , SNP led by an EUnionist Brussels bankers' boy.

    It's no surprise that UKIP is now the mainstream opposition to this cloaca maxima of bs.

    Reminds me of a verse that someone had written inside the loos at Christchurch - in Latin naturally. My grandfather translated it into Greek, and then someone else added medieval German. Higher class of graffiti in Christchurch...

    Fair Cloacina, goddess of this place
    Accustomed seat of every child of grace
    On this, thy fair throne, let our libations flow
    Not rudely swift, nor obstinately slow
  • samsam Posts: 727

    Conservatives led by an anti-conservative , Labour led by an inheritance multi-millionaire who hasn't done a hand's turn of work in his pampered life , LibDems led by somebody allergic to liberty and democracy , SNP led by an EUnionist Brussels bankers' boy.

    It's no surprise that UKIP is now the mainstream opposition to this cloaca maxima of bs.

    Farage is a millionaire former City Banker.

    Hardly the 'man of the people' with soil under his fingernails that you're making him out to be!

    Isnt the point that he is in line with his partys name while the others arent.

    I dont think Moniker said Farage was a man of the people

  • samsam Posts: 727
    antifrank said:

    Why haven't the Greens been as effective as UKIP in gaining protest votes? Part of it is that the left of centre protesters are currently happy enough with Labour, but the Greens have comprehensively failed to strike a distinctive voice. The opportunity was (and is) there. Since whatever we do is going to be expensive for all of us, we may as well structure the deficit funding in such a way that makes us all feel more moral.

    Because the three main parties all try to be Green

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @sam A Green government would be continuing the fuel escalator. And the Greens' failure to articulate how they would be distinctively different from other parties is baffling. They should be flirting with the left wing of the Labour party as shamelessly as UKIP are hitching their skirts up at the Tory headbangers.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Tony Pulis leaves Stoke making Alan Pardew the 2nd longest serving manager in the Prem...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    antifrank said:

    Why haven't the Greens been as effective as UKIP in gaining protest votes? Part of it is that the left of centre protesters are currently happy enough with Labour, but the Greens have comprehensively failed to strike a distinctive voice. The opportunity was (and is) there. Since whatever we do is going to be expensive for all of us, we may as well structure the deficit funding in such a way that makes us all feel more moral.

    Maybe it's just my Twitter feed, but it seems like they're having some trouble holding the coalition together. There was always a bit of a tension between the rationalists and the mystics, and it's starting to get a bit ridiculous having people who are serious about dealing with climate change in the same party as people who don't like nuclear power or electricity cables.
  • MarchesMarches Posts: 51

    Conservatives led by an anti-conservative , Labour led by an inheritance multi-millionaire who hasn't done a hand's turn of work in his pampered life , LibDems led by somebody allergic to liberty and democracy , SNP led by an EUnionist Brussels bankers' boy.

    It's no surprise that UKIP is now the mainstream opposition to this cloaca maxima of bs.

    Farage is a millionaire former City Banker.

    Hardly the 'man of the people' with soil under his fingernails that you're making him out to be!


    If you look at what he did, Disraeli would fail the tests as applied now. Yet what he did both ensured the survival of the conservatives/tories but also ensured that that they remained a keystone in government for the next 100 years.
  • MarchesMarches Posts: 51

    Conservatives led by an anti-conservative , Labour led by an inheritance multi-millionaire who hasn't done a hand's turn of work in his pampered life , LibDems led by somebody allergic to liberty and democracy , SNP led by an EUnionist Brussels bankers' boy.

    It's no surprise that UKIP is now the mainstream opposition to this cloaca maxima of bs.

    You show in one email posting why it's a fools errand trying to reason with a UKIP supporter. Religions do not need consistency or thought, just belief.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    From Sean T's comment in the previous thread about there being a limit to human understanding.

    This seems provable logically already.

    It takes until the age of about 22 to get an undergraduate degree in maths. Broadly, the older you get, the more recent the maths you study. Thus when you are 10 you do geometry (Ancient Greek). Then you do algebra (mediaeval Arabian) at 12, then calculus ay 15 (18th century, Newton / Leibniz etc), then at A Level you will do probability and statistics (the last branch to be invented / developed, mainly from the early 19th century onwards).

    Either mathematics continues to develop further, or it does not. If it does, then one day, it must get to a point where it takes more than a human lifespan just to assimilate what's already known. At that point, more can never be discovered, because nobody lives long enough to build on what's known.

    If it does not develop further, then the hypothesis of human knowledge being finite is proven.

    It's a bit embarrassing that we can assimilate all the maths there are in a quarter of one human lifespan.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    For those kippers and labourites who like a good laugh, Toby Young is keeping faith with Dave.

    His 'Dave will still win in 2015' is now in the telly - the comments underneath are quite amusing too.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    antifrank said:

    @sam A Green government would be continuing the fuel escalator. And the Greens' failure to articulate how they would be distinctively different from other parties is baffling. They should be flirting with the left wing of the Labour party as shamelessly as UKIP are hitching their skirts up at the Tory headbangers.

    Getting rid of a popular leader and replacing her with a foreigner probably didnt help either

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that Dave, for lack of a better word, is good. Dave is right, Dave works. Dave clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Dave, in all of his forms; Dave for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Dave, you mark my words, will not only save the Tory Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    From Sean T's comment in the previous thread about there being a limit to human understanding.

    This seems provable logically already.

    It takes until the age of about 22 to get an undergraduate degree in maths. Broadly, the older you get, the more recent the maths you study. Thus when you are 10 you do geometry (Ancient Greek). Then you do algebra (mediaeval Arabian) at 12, then calculus ay 15 (18th century, Newton / Leibniz etc), then at A Level you will do probability and statistics (the last branch to be invented / developed, mainly from the early 19th century onwards).

    Either mathematics continues to develop further, or it does not. If it does, then one day, it must get to a point where it takes more than a human lifespan just to assimilate what's already known. At that point, more can never be discovered, because nobody lives long enough to build on what's known.

    If it does not develop further, then the hypothesis of human knowledge being finite is proven.

    It's a bit embarrassing that we can assimilate all the maths there are in a quarter of one human lifespan.

    I hate to break it to you, but they don't teach you all the maths there is, you study some calculus in school, you certainly don't cover all of it.

    But hypothetically if what you said was true, then we'd just specialise more in the education. There was an age when there were scientists who were true polymaths, now there's so much science we divide and sub-divide it.into separate subjects and sub-specialties.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2013
    sam said:

    antifrank said:

    @sam A Green government would be continuing the fuel escalator. And the Greens' failure to articulate how they would be distinctively different from other parties is baffling. They should be flirting with the left wing of the Labour party as shamelessly as UKIP are hitching their skirts up at the Tory headbangers.

    Getting rid of a popular leader and replacing her with a foreigner probably didnt help either

    'replacing her with a foreigner'

    Care to elaborate on that one?

    I read comments like that from UKIPpers and begin to wonder if those Scots had a point last week.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2013
    test
    edit: yep, that fixed it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byQIPdHMpjc
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2013
    Green policies: they're a luxury that not many are willing to pay for right now, so I'm not surprised they have no traction. Hair shirts are unappealing when you can't afford shoes.

    It's no coincidence that Europe's richest nations are the most 'green', and poorest are, well, less so.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Dave, for lack of a better word, is good.

    Funnily enough the Sun said the same thing today. After pouring a large bucket of scorn on him, of course..
  • Lewis_DuckworthLewis_Duckworth Posts: 90
    edited May 2013
    Cameron has for some days rested on a lie, that no-one within his inner charmed circle referred to a substantial number of Conservative party activists as "swivel-eyed loons". Goodness, let's face it: 1) ALL his inner circle share, and have long shared, this view 2) Cameron at PMQ's often treats his own back-benchers [ones with views similar or over half-way to mine] as loons. He does regard much of UKIP and the flaking right of Tory voters as fruitcakes and closet racists. All his past pronouncements and body language show this. These years of disdain can't now be undone. He has continued the march of Political Correctness and has entered into alliance with Labour to secure this. Unforgiveable. He's burnt his bridges with a substantial chunk of his 2010 support.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    antifrank - "Why haven't the Greens been as effective as UKIP in gaining protest votes?"

    Because as I wrote at the weekend, the current swing vote is among social conservatives, which none of the current parties are catering for. By contrast, there are plenty of politicians in the main three who advocate what might be seen as a green-lite agenda. There is a market for a full-strength Green agenda but it's only believed in by 1-2%, which is what the Greens are polling: their core support.

    The main reason for this is that UKIP is doing a fine job - as Mike has pointed out - of sweeping up the "none of the above" vote, which is not only hurting Labour (as the main party of opposition) and the Lib Dems (who previously benefitted from it), but also established minor parties such as the BNP and Greens, and aspirant minor parties such as the NHS lot.
  • samsam Posts: 727

    sam said:

    antifrank said:

    @sam A Green government would be continuing the fuel escalator. And the Greens' failure to articulate how they would be distinctively different from other parties is baffling. They should be flirting with the left wing of the Labour party as shamelessly as UKIP are hitching their skirts up at the Tory headbangers.

    Getting rid of a popular leader and replacing her with a foreigner probably didnt help either

    'replacing her with a foreigner'

    Care to elaborate on that one?

    I read comments like that from UKIPpers and begin to wonder if those Scots had a point last week.
    Sorry that did sound like it came from someone with a hatred of foreigners

    To elaborate, the Greens have an Australian leader, and I wouldnt imagine that is much of a plus point for them with voters.


  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    corporeal said:

    But hypothetically if what you said was true, then we'd just specialise more in the education. There was an age when there were scientists who were true polymaths, now there's so much science we divide and sub-divide it.into separate subjects and sub-specialties.

    Wouldn't matter.

    By analogy, in the 1920s it was well understood that somewhere far off, there was an upper limit to the speed attainable by piston-engined aircraft. You could streamline them, fit a tractor at the front and a pusher at the back, have two contra-rotated propellers at each end, etc - but eventually, should the tips of the blades turn at Mach 1, the prop will shake itself off the airframe (or shake the airframe off itself).

    And if you engineer a way around that, then the drag created by the propeller itself will eventually exceed the thrust it provides, in the same way that you can't freefall at more than 140mph.

    Eventually the corpus of mathematical knowledge to be absorbed must exceed the amount absorbable in the time available to do it; or, require so much specialisation that the number of people doing it falls, with the same consequence.

    Specialisation defers that day, but not indefinitely.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    The Green leader being Australian is neither here nor there. The fact that she's an invisible nonentity making zero impression in the media is of a great deal more import in their inability to go forward.

    The halving of LD support combined with Miliband's less than inspirational leadership of Labour ought to be an opportunity for the Greens. In fact, it is. They're just not taking it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @david_herdson I agree with the replacement David Herdson that has stepped in between 3.25 and 3.32.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2013
    Suppose that you had taken a poll in 1535 on the following question:
    "Some priests opposed to the Crown's policies on religion have suggested that they should have greater influence on the King. Would you support such a suggestion?"
    There is little doubt that a similar proportion would have said Yes as approve of the so-called National Health Action party in the Ashcroft poll. When the government interferes in the national religion, whether it does so well or badly, it tends to stir up dissent.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    But hypothetically if what you said was true, then we'd just specialise more in the education. There was an age when there were scientists who were true polymaths, now there's so much science we divide and sub-divide it.into separate subjects and sub-specialties.

    Wouldn't matter.

    By analogy, in the 1920s it was well understood that somewhere far off, there was an upper limit to the speed attainable by piston-engined aircraft. You could streamline them, fit a tractor at the front and a pusher at the back, have two contra-rotated propellers at each end, etc - but eventually, should the tips of the blades turn at Mach 1, the prop will shake itself off the airframe (or shake the airframe off itself).

    And if you engineer a way around that, then the drag created by the propeller itself will eventually exceed the thrust it provides, in the same way that you can't freefall at more than 140mph.

    Eventually the corpus of mathematical knowledge to be absorbed must exceed the amount absorbable in the time available to do it; or, require so much specialisation that the number of people doing it falls, with the same consequence.

    Specialisation defers that day, but not indefinitely.
    Your analogy doesn't hold up, because we knew the maximum level of pressure those can take. We don't have that information for maths.

    The idea that "we can assimilate all the maths there are in a quarter of one human lifespan." is so ridiculous it's farcical.

    And hanging over the background of all this is computing power.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    The Green party has been doing quite well lately. 6% in the latest MORI poll is as high as I remember for quite some time. More sustainable net gains in the local elections just gone (with breakthroughs on authorities like Kent, Surrey and Essex county councils). I'm more confident of gains in next year's Euros than I have ever been and I expect a lot more local authority gains then too. Finally I am very confident of the 8/1 bet I have with Mark Senior on Caroline Lucas retaining her seat ;)
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Neil said:

    The Green party has been doing quite well lately. 6% in the latest MORI poll is as high as I remember for quite some time. More sustainable net gains in the local elections just gone (with breakthroughs on authorities like Kent, Surrey and Essex county councils). I'm more confident of gains in next year's Euros than I have ever been and I expect a lot more local authority gains then too. Finally I am very confident of the 8/1 bet I have with Mark Senior on Caroline Lucas retaining her seat ;)

    8/1??? isnt it 5/6??
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Superb article in today's New York Times - English football supporters, a guide for Americans:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/sports/soccer/a-guide-to-attending-a-premier-league-game.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    sam said:


    8/1??? isnt it 5/6??

    Mark was even more generous than you were with your UKIP odds!
  • NHA doesn't have a leader. UKIP does.

    Farage is a salesman, and is happy to admit to being one. If DC, EM, NC and NF were asked if they were salesman, how many would be comfortable giving the one word answer: yes? Yet nobody at the top of an organisation that depends for its success on his sales skills, can afford to be too important, or too precious, to describe themselves as a salesman.

    And the top man needs to show leadership. Only UKIP of the 4 main parties is led by someone who obviously ticks both boxes.

    Can that compensate for the absence of history, the lack of organisation, and FPTP? Almost always, the answer is no.

    But currently, all the other leaders are so uninspiring, so pedestrian, and so dull, that Farage is in with a great shout.
  • The Green leader being Australian is neither here nor there. The fact that she's an invisible nonentity making zero impression in the media is of a great deal more import in their inability to go forward.

    The halving of LD support combined with Miliband's less than inspirational leadership of Labour ought to be an opportunity for the Greens. In fact, it is. They're just not taking it.

    The problem for the Greens is that there doesn't seem to be an obvious issue to differentiate them from the other parties e.g. the Coalition is shutting coal power stations and encouraging renewables. It is also increasing foreign aid.

    As people were discussing with regards to the SDP, the Greens have managed to get the main parties to implement their agenda but have made neutered themselves in the process.

    BTW - on topic I had never heard of National Health Action even 18 months ago.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Azerbaijan president aks for a recount of their Eurovision votes.

    He can't believe that they didn't give Russia any points. The ambassador is also concerned.

    They ordered an internal investigation on the matter...or, in their own words, "this incident, possibly initiated by certain interest groups"

    Howarth would blame the "aggressive homosexual community" for this.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good afternoon :tea time. But before that, have a look at this:
    @ukipwebmaster
    The EU politics of envy.
    Killing the goose that lays the golden egg out of spite and jealousy. http://youtu.be/BCD7Z84qnGc?a
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2013
    The Greens next goal should be to overtake the Lib Dems in the UK at next year's European elections. It would take them back to their heady days of 1989 when they had 15% to the Social and Liberal Democrats 6%. 15% for the Greens seems impossible next year but they could get ahead of the Lib Dems by 1% or 2%.
  • samsam Posts: 727

    NHA doesn't have a leader. UKIP does.

    Farage is a salesman, and is happy to admit to being one. If DC, EM, NC and NF were asked if they were salesman, how many would be comfortable giving the one word answer: yes? Yet nobody at the top of an organisation that depends for its success on his sales skills, can afford to be too important, or too precious, to describe themselves as a salesman.

    And the top man needs to show leadership. Only UKIP of the 4 main parties is led by someone who obviously ticks both boxes.

    Can that compensate for the absence of history, the lack of organisation, and FPTP? Almost always, the answer is no.

    But currently, all the other leaders are so uninspiring, so pedestrian, and so dull, that Farage is in with a great shout.

    Farage was good on the Jeremy Vine Show on R2 earlier.. Vine accused him of being an old Etonian!

    Farage admitted to having had a priveliged childhood, and wasnt ashamed of it at all. Spoke well

    BTW I used to work at IG Sport, are you that David Kendrick? (team perfs)
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Neil said:

    sam said:


    8/1??? isnt it 5/6??

    Mark was even more generous than you were with your UKIP odds!
    Blimey, he sure was!

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    o/t - Maria Miller and especially Kate Green have been quite impressive in their handling of the Same Sex Marriage Bill over the last two days. A lot of other contributions have been far more ponderous in comparison.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Neil said:

    . Finally I am very confident of the 8/1 bet I have with Mark Senior on Caroline Lucas retaining her seat ;)

    Apparently, Labour just got 3 applications (they received 4 for Kemptwon, 18 for Hove).

    Kusum Parashar from Ealing Southall CLP
    Purna Sen – the deputy director of the Institute of Public Affairs at the London School of Economics and a local party activist in Brighton
    Anne Marie Waters from London http://www.annemariewaters.org/about-me/

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    antifrank - yes, slightly contradictory posts from me but then politics is sometimes contradictory and there are nearly always more than one reason for an event or outcome.

    Fact is that the Greens could be doing better. There are probably a lot of soft left votes that could be attracted to them given a moderate, high-profile and politically able leader, which is something they don't have. Even so, the overlap beween potential UKIP and Green voters is surprisingly large and consists of those who like protesting against the government and/or the establishment in general.

    In addition, UKIP's picking up plenty of socially conservative voters, which the Greens could never hope to attract but the bandwagon that these voters have generated for Farage has created a momentum which is currently enabling them to be the vehicle of choice for protest voters, so crowding out the Greens and others. That dynamic would always have been difficult for other minor parties but their own failings makes it that much harder.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    antifrank - yes, slightly contradictory posts from me but then politics is sometimes contradictory and there are nearly always more than one reason for an event or outcome.

    Fact is that the Greens could be doing better. There are probably a lot of soft left votes that could be attracted to them given a moderate, high-profile and politically able leader, which is something they don't have. Even so, the overlap beween potential UKIP and Green voters is surprisingly large and consists of those who like protesting against the government and/or the establishment in general.

    In addition, UKIP's picking up plenty of socially conservative voters, which the Greens could never hope to attract but the bandwagon that these voters have generated for Farage has created a momentum which is currently enabling them to be the vehicle of choice for protest voters, so crowding out the Greens and others. That dynamic would always have been difficult for other minor parties but their own failings makes it that much harder.


    The leader is so important these days in securing a hearing. Especially for the smaller parties.

    John Swinney -> Samond
    Lord Pearson -> Farage

    Totally changed the fortunes of the parties. The greens have clearly made a bad choice that could be reversed as in UKIP & SNP.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Neil said:

    The Green party has been doing quite well lately. 6% in the latest MORI poll is as high as I remember for quite some time. More sustainable net gains in the local elections just gone (with breakthroughs on authorities like Kent, Surrey and Essex county councils). I'm more confident of gains in next year's Euros than I have ever been and I expect a lot more local authority gains then too. Finally I am very confident of the 8/1 bet I have with Mark Senior on Caroline Lucas retaining her seat ;)

    The Greens in Brighton seem to be intent on committing hara kiri at the moment with Lucas and the Green leader of the council Jason Kitcat at loggerheads .
    Interesting that although as you say the Greens made a few breakthroughs on May 2nd , they went backwards in two of their stronger areas Norwich and Lancaster .
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Jonathan said:

    The greens have clearly made a bad choice that could be reversed as in UKIP & SNP.

    I simply state, without further comment, that the current leader's term will expire next year.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    The Greens in Brighton seem to be intent on committing hara kiri at the moment with Lucas and the Green leader of the council Jason Kitcat at loggerheads .

    Yes, but Caroline would appear to be on the electorally popular side of that dispute and that's what informs my analysis.

    A couple of the Green losses in Norwich I expected, one a bit more disappointing, it's still the area that needs to be worked next hardest as most likely to result in a second seat.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Jonathan said:

    antifrank - yes, slightly contradictory posts from me but then politics is sometimes contradictory and there are nearly always more than one reason for an event or outcome.

    Fact is that the Greens could be doing better. There are probably a lot of soft left votes that could be attracted to them given a moderate, high-profile and politically able leader, which is something they don't have. Even so, the overlap beween potential UKIP and Green voters is surprisingly large and consists of those who like protesting against the government and/or the establishment in general.

    In addition, UKIP's picking up plenty of socially conservative voters, which the Greens could never hope to attract but the bandwagon that these voters have generated for Farage has created a momentum which is currently enabling them to be the vehicle of choice for protest voters, so crowding out the Greens and others. That dynamic would always have been difficult for other minor parties but their own failings makes it that much harder.


    The leader is so important these days in securing a hearing. Especially for the smaller parties.

    John Swinney -> Samond
    Lord Pearson -> Farage

    Totally changed the fortunes of the parties. The greens have clearly made a bad choice that could be reversed as in UKIP & SNP.
    Regarding the accent (I take it Bennett is British now, apologies for assuming she was Australian due to her accent), have we had an MP with a strong non British accent before?

    Please lets not get into a petty debate about what constitutes British here...

    As I type I can only think of Gisela (Stewart?) from The Labour party at a stretch



  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    The Greens should outperform the Lib Dems at the Euroelections and it will be another false dawn. The EP elections are great for minor parties - PR so less wasted vote argument, full representation on the ballot papers, no personal votes, no meaningful outcome so a free hit at the establishment, and a low turnout. Even the local council election profile is unhelpful to the Yellows in 2014, where there are lots of elections in places they're not strong. If the Greens can't poll more than the LDs then they've had a poor day. It still won't make any difference come the general election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,546
    corporeal said:

    From Sean T's comment in the previous thread about there being a limit to human understanding.

    This seems provable logically already.

    It takes until the age of about 22 to get an undergraduate degree in maths. Broadly, the older you get, the more recent the maths you study. Thus when you are 10 you do geometry (Ancient Greek). Then you do algebra (mediaeval Arabian) at 12, then calculus ay 15 (18th century, Newton / Leibniz etc), then at A Level you will do probability and statistics (the last branch to be invented / developed, mainly from the early 19th century onwards).

    Either mathematics continues to develop further, or it does not. If it does, then one day, it must get to a point where it takes more than a human lifespan just to assimilate what's already known. At that point, more can never be discovered, because nobody lives long enough to build on what's known.

    If it does not develop further, then the hypothesis of human knowledge being finite is proven.

    It's a bit embarrassing that we can assimilate all the maths there are in a quarter of one human lifespan.

    I hate to break it to you, but they don't teach you all the maths there is, you study some calculus in school, you certainly don't cover all of it.

    But hypothetically if what you said was true, then we'd just specialise more in the education. There was an age when there were scientists who were true polymaths, now there's so much science we divide and sub-divide it.into separate subjects and sub-specialties.
    I've just skimmed that thread, and it was an interesting discussion.

    I agree that specialisation holds the key; it would be interesting to get the opinion of someone who already works in a highly specialised, rapidly-advancing area, for instance medicine. I assume surgeons read deeply in their area of concern, and less widely in surrounding areas.

    If there is a limit to useful specialisation, the Internet will have pushed that limit further into the future. There is now no need to order a paper copy of the latest journal; it can be in your fingers in moments. This makes it easier for experts to get the latest advances in other areas, and for ideas and concepts to cross-pollinate without attending conferences. Computers, whilst not intelligent, will be able to pattern-match and take much of the grunt work out of scientific inquiry. "Give me all the papers and research on 5-Fluorouracil in the last three years, sorted by references to GCATAGTC DNA sequence."

    I'm fascinated by Henry Cavendish, who lived up to 1810. (*) An immensely wealthy man, he used his wealth to investigate natural philosophy. He discovered hydrogen, calculated the mass of the earth, and was an early experimenter with electricity.

    A hundred years after his death, James Clerk Maxwell studied Cavendish's personal papers and found that Cavendish had discovered many things that others had taken credit for, such as Ohm's law. He never publicised many of his investigations and discoveries, which looking back was a hideous failure.

    There is no way anyone could be such a polymath nowadays.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Cavendish

    (*) Actually in my old home village in Derbyshire, Doveridge.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    It still won't make any difference come the general election.

    Resources are so thin for the Greens that a couple of extra MEPs (should they come to pass) would be extremely helpful in the run up to the general election.

    I dont think beating the Lib Dems is a sensible target for the Greens. All they can do is maximise their own potential. A slight improvement on 2009 would be great. If that's enough to beat the Lib Dems so be it; if it isnt that's no big deal.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    sam said:

    Jonathan said:

    antifrank - yes, slightly contradictory posts from me but then politics is sometimes contradictory and there are nearly always more than one reason for an event or outcome.

    Fact is that the Greens could be doing better. There are probably a lot of soft left votes that could be attracted to them given a moderate, high-profile and politically able leader, which is something they don't have. Even so, the overlap beween potential UKIP and Green voters is surprisingly large and consists of those who like protesting against the government and/or the establishment in general.

    In addition, UKIP's picking up plenty of socially conservative voters, which the Greens could never hope to attract but the bandwagon that these voters have generated for Farage has created a momentum which is currently enabling them to be the vehicle of choice for protest voters, so crowding out the Greens and others. That dynamic would always have been difficult for other minor parties but their own failings makes it that much harder.


    The leader is so important these days in securing a hearing. Especially for the smaller parties.

    John Swinney -> Samond
    Lord Pearson -> Farage

    Totally changed the fortunes of the parties. The greens have clearly made a bad choice that could be reversed as in UKIP & SNP.
    Regarding the accent (I take it Bennett is British now, apologies for assuming she was Australian due to her accent), have we had an MP with a strong non British accent before?

    Please lets not get into a petty debate about what constitutes British here...

    As I type I can only think of Gisela (Stewart?) from The Labour party at a stretch



    A former Australian Prime Minister once went on to become a Westminster MP.
  • rel="david_kendrick1">

    BTW I used to work at IG Sport, are you that David Kendrick? (team perfs)

    Yes
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    The Green leader being Australian is neither here nor there. The fact that she's an invisible nonentity making zero impression in the media is of a great deal more import in their inability to go forward.

    The halving of LD support combined with Miliband's less than inspirational leadership of Labour ought to be an opportunity for the Greens. In fact, it is. They're just not taking it.

    My preferred explanation is that potential Green voters are more inclined to vote tactically. If you look at the 2010 GE results this seems to be borne out, as the Green vote decreased in many seats - perhaps as an attempt to keep the Tories out.

    Oxford West and Abingdon is an example of this, though it wasn't enough to save the Lib Dem incumbent. Overall the Green vote was up by less than 8,000 votes, despite standing in more than 100 extra seats, and yet the Green vote did go up substantially in seats where it made immediate sense, such as Brighton and Norwich.

    My hypothesis is then that potential Green voters are prepared to vote tactically anti-Tory at the next election to get Osborne out of the Treasury. If Miliband were to tack to the right as Blairites recommend then this might change.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    sam said:

    Jonathan said:

    antifrank - yes, slightly contradictory posts from me but then politics is sometimes contradictory and there are nearly always more than one reason for an event or outcome.

    Fact is that the Greens could be doing better. There are probably a lot of soft left votes that could be attracted to them given a moderate, high-profile and politically able leader, which is something they don't have. Even so, the overlap beween potential UKIP and Green voters is surprisingly large and consists of those who like protesting against the government and/or the establishment in general.

    In addition, UKIP's picking up plenty of socially conservative voters, which the Greens could never hope to attract but the bandwagon that these voters have generated for Farage has created a momentum which is currently enabling them to be the vehicle of choice for protest voters, so crowding out the Greens and others. That dynamic would always have been difficult for other minor parties but their own failings makes it that much harder.


    The leader is so important these days in securing a hearing. Especially for the smaller parties.

    John Swinney -> Samond
    Lord Pearson -> Farage

    Totally changed the fortunes of the parties. The greens have clearly made a bad choice that could be reversed as in UKIP & SNP.
    Regarding the accent (I take it Bennett is British now, apologies for assuming she was Australian due to her accent), have we had an MP with a strong non British accent before?

    Please lets not get into a petty debate about what constitutes British here...

    As I type I can only think of Gisela (Stewart?) from The Labour party at a stretch



    There have been loads of MP's with non British accents.

    Bernie Grant springs to mind.
    The Tory MP for Braintree has a US accent.
    quite a few Asian born MP's
    Daniel Kawczynski in Shrewsbury.
    Cheers

    Kawczynskis accent is not strong to my ear

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5ATka5zte0

    Brooks Newmark doesnt have a US accent at all

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ1B4Wz5gxo

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Neil

    are the Euro Green targets North West, South West and East?
    I think they aren't likely to get anything in SW and NW (because they are 2 regions where LibDem should hold their seat)...maybe East because it's a region where Labour could underperform as UKIP stole them many of the Con switchers
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Andrea

    Targeting doesnt make much sense for these elections though I believe NW and East were the target regions last time. I wonder whether a small improvement in Yorkshire might not be more likely to deliver a seat than some of those if both the BNP and the Lib Dems fall back by enough.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2013
    @Andrea

    The Bermondsey and Old Southwark selection candidates for Labour:

    http://www.london-se1.co.uk/news/view/6842

    Disappointing that IOS doesnt appear to be among them. He was probably scared off by the shock of Simon Hughes being likely to confound his prediction by standing again.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @Sam

    Brooks Newmark definitely has a US accent.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7POEWsHsSl8

    Not that any of it matters.

    Hmmmm Im not convinced that if I didnt know I would say he sounded American, or Kawczynsk sounded Polish

    Definitely not in the same way that Natalie Bennet sounds Australian

    You dont think it matters? Do you think voters would be more no more or less likely to vote for a party with a leader that speaks with a strong foreign accent? Suprised if that were so
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Neil

    for targets, I just meant regions where you think Greens can gain a seat.

    Labour and UKIP should get a second seat each in Yorkshire. Con will certainly lose their third seat....but will they hang on the second?

    If you poll 9% (assuming BNP and LD go below it), they would need be over 18% ( which is realistic as they were at 24.5% in 2009). If you go over 10%, it will obviously change things...
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    So the 4 I told you + a lady as I suggested

    Val is backing Prem IIRC.
    Neil said:

    @Andrea

    The Bermondsey and Old Southwark selection candidates for Labour:

    http://www.london-se1.co.uk/news/view/6842

    Disappointing that IOS doesnt appear to be among them. He was probably scared off by the shock of Simon Hughes being likely to confound his prediction by standing again.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Bryan Gould, who was from New Zealand, stood for the leadership of the Labour party in 1992.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Sir Malcolm Rifkind intervenes to support Caroline Lucas' amendment to equalise pension rights for same sex married partners. Next step is equalising rights for widowers!
  • samsam Posts: 727
    antifrank said:

    Bryan Gould, who was from New Zealand, stood for the leadership of the Labour party in 1992.

    He has a strong BRITISH accent!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qccFFPJJePs
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776
    tim said:

    sam said:

    Jonathan said:

    antifrank - yes, slightly contradictory posts from me but then politics is sometimes contradictory and there are nearly always more than one reason for an event or outcome.

    Fact is that the Greens could be doing better. There are probably a lot of soft left votes that could be attracted to them given a moderate, high-profile and politically able leader, which is something they don't have. Even so, the overlap beween potential UKIP and Green voters is surprisingly large and consists of those who like protesting against the government and/or the establishment in general.

    In addition, UKIP's picking up plenty of socially conservative voters, which the Greens could never hope to attract but the bandwagon that these voters have generated for Farage has created a momentum which is currently enabling them to be the vehicle of choice for protest voters, so crowding out the Greens and others. That dynamic would always have been difficult for other minor parties but their own failings makes it that much harder.


    The leader is so important these days in securing a hearing. Especially for the smaller parties.

    John Swinney -> Samond
    Lord Pearson -> Farage

    Totally changed the fortunes of the parties. The greens have clearly made a bad choice that could be reversed as in UKIP & SNP.
    Regarding the accent (I take it Bennett is British now, apologies for assuming she was Australian due to her accent), have we had an MP with a strong non British accent before?

    Please lets not get into a petty debate about what constitutes British here...

    As I type I can only think of Gisela (Stewart?) from The Labour party at a stretch



    There have been loads of MP's with non British accents.

    Bernie Grant springs to mind.
    The Tory MP for Braintree has a US accent.
    quite a few Asian born MP's
    Daniel Kawczynski in Shrewsbury.
    The former Labour MP for Finchley was Dutch.
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 140

    Superb article in today's New York Times - English football supporters, a guide for Americans:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/sports/soccer/a-guide-to-attending-a-premier-league-game.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

    Brilliant - on the button. Particularly about how many fans don't appear to be enjoying themselves

    You worry for some fan's physical health (heart attack) they look so tense
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Can't really compete with the erudite contributors on the potential singularity, but I know that fans of the concept gravitate towards the works of the wonderful Vernor Vinge. His Fire Upon the Deep remains my favourite book.

    That said, I only really like the bits where he doesn't go on about the singularity. Don't like things I can't understand.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Pity Cameron couldn't have had Nicholson sacked, rather than retired.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,546
    Blooming heck, that's a story and a half.

    I hope the people who witnessed this asshat's suicide manage to get over it.

    (I've startled myself by calling someone who committed suicide without hurting anyone an asshat - I normally have a little more sympathy than that. But in this case, I think it's the right wording, from what we know at the moment).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    He obviously wasn't too bothered about the church's strictures against suicide.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    antifrank said:

    He obviously wasn't too bothered about the church's strictures against suicide.
    Very good point

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    Tobias was outdone by Jim Shannon who let his side down by admitting that he's heard from Roman Catholics on this issue.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    @Sam

    The MP who is the heir to the Baronetcy of Ballentaylor and Ballylemon in the County of Waterford had the voice of a five year old girl, not sure what happened to him

    Im not that bothered by it, I just thought it could be a reason for the Greens not doing so well..

    I can think of a Frenchman with a strong accent that, if he were in charge of the economy , would probably have the UK punching above our weight internationally, running a surplus while upgrading every school, hospital and council house, probably funded by unparallelled growth from selling gold at the market high having bought it for next to nothing.

    Nobody would be complaining then.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "UKIP tells me that it now has 27,517 members and expects to pass 30,000 once the backlog is cleared"

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/336813508794654721
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    antifrank said:

    He obviously wasn't too bothered about the church's strictures against suicide.
    Looking at his record in the Algerian related terrorist group I suspect he wasn't too bothered by "thou shalt not kill" and "All men are created equal" either.

    Since when was "all men are created equal" a church stricture? That's Thomas Jefferson. The Bible was fine with slavery.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good evening, everyone.

    What was it that Corsican chap said about reinforcing failure?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22606809

    McLaren are putting fewer resources than planned into 2014 to try and make the 2013 car better. This season's title is lost already, and the monumental regulation changes from this year to next will be in place for years. This is not Sparta, but it is madness.

    In unrelated news, my octo-lemur photographer snapped the moment E. Miliband heard of the latest Survation poll: http://awkwardedmilibandmoments.tumblr.com/post/50726460359/ed-loves-it-when-his-evil-master-plan-comes
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    My big news of the day is that I've set myself a new record on Blackberry Wordmole: 94,145.

    Sooner or later my antique Blackberry is going to give out.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    NHA doesn't have a leader. UKIP does.

    Farage is a salesman, and is happy to admit to being one. If DC, EM, NC and NF were asked if they were salesman, how many would be comfortable giving the one word answer: yes? Yet nobody at the top of an organisation that depends for its success on his sales skills, can afford to be too important, or too precious, to describe themselves as a salesman.

    And the top man needs to show leadership. Only UKIP of the 4 main parties is led by someone who obviously ticks both boxes.

    Can that compensate for the absence of history, the lack of organisation, and FPTP? Almost always, the answer is no.

    But currently, all the other leaders are so uninspiring, so pedestrian, and so dull, that Farage is in with a great shout.

    When Cameron started to travel on sales missions to BRICs he was criticised for demeaning the position of PM. He said he didn't care if people called him a salesman, he would do what ever was necessary in his view.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The first past the post system has a lot to answer for. No wonder the big two resist meaningful change.
    Charles, any news on vaccines? Been busy in that area recently?

    All 5 leadership contenders in the Labour Party supported AV. In fact, a majority of Labour members would support AV or some other fairer system. When Labour created the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments, it did not choose FPTP. All for the Mayoral elections.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    surbiton said:

    The first past the post system has a lot to answer for. No wonder the big two resist meaningful change.
    Charles, any news on vaccines? Been busy in that area recently?

    All 5 leadership contenders in the Labour Party supported AV.

    They didn't ACT like they did.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Rowenna has officially entered the Itchen Labour selection race. Is Avery acting as her campaign manageR?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    The first past the post system has a lot to answer for. No wonder the big two resist meaningful change.
    Charles, any news on vaccines? Been busy in that area recently?

    All 5 leadership contenders in the Labour Party supported AV.

    They didn't ACT like they did.

    surbiton said:

    The first past the post system has a lot to answer for. No wonder the big two resist meaningful change.
    Charles, any news on vaccines? Been busy in that area recently?

    All 5 leadership contenders in the Labour Party supported AV.

    They didn't ACT like they did.

    So when you are asked a question about AV, you say I support AV. You put out statements supporting AV.

    But, of course, they were not ACTING like they did.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    In 1971, a 75 year old woman from Norfolk killed herself because of decimalisation.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2001/dec/22/euro.money4
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    perdix said:

    NHA doesn't have a leader. UKIP does.

    Farage is a salesman, and is happy to admit to being one. If DC, EM, NC and NF were asked if they were salesman, how many would be comfortable giving the one word answer: yes? Yet nobody at the top of an organisation that depends for its success on his sales skills, can afford to be too important, or too precious, to describe themselves as a salesman.

    And the top man needs to show leadership. Only UKIP of the 4 main parties is led by someone who obviously ticks both boxes.

    Can that compensate for the absence of history, the lack of organisation, and FPTP? Almost always, the answer is no.

    But currently, all the other leaders are so uninspiring, so pedestrian, and so dull, that Farage is in with a great shout.

    When Cameron started to travel on sales missions to BRICs he was criticised for demeaning the position of PM. He said he didn't care if people called him a salesman, he would do what ever was necessary in his view.

    He's a lousy salesman and he's an even lousier PM.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    Tebbit Santorum

    Perhaps we could have a competition for an alternative meaning for Tebbit à la Santorum?

    I see it as a verb myself e.g. 'Ooh, I could go a right tebbit tonight', or 'that back room's only for tebbiting'.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Jeffrey Donaldson - marriage is for everyone.

    Just not for the gays, Jeffrey!
  • DUP to vote against the Bill even though it would not introduce homosexual marriage in Ulster. West Lothianism in action.
  • Neil said:

    Jeffrey Donaldson - marriage is for everyone.

    Just not for the gays, Jeffrey!

    That's not fair. Homosexuals can get married at the present time, just not to people of the same gender. Heterosexuals can't get married to people of the same gender as well.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2013
    @Life_ina_market_town

    Tbf the SDLP is likely to support it and that is just as perverse. I love the fact that Sylvia Harmon is thought of as a relative liberal in Northern Irish circles.

    Scottish Labour MPs have been voting on both sides at all stages as well.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    If Dave goes nobody will miss him at 1200 o'clock on a Wednesday.

    In any other job in the public sector , he would be on a supportive action plan to enable him to fulfil his contractual duties.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Bone urges the HoL to reject the bill.
This discussion has been closed.