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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No promotion and the backbenchers are restless
The stability that coalition has brought to government is in many ways a good thing, allowing ministers to settle in post, become fully acquainted with their brief, see legislation through from design to statute, and reduce uncertainty. Almost certainly, there will be just the one significant reshuffle – that carried out last summer – with any casual vacancies filled with minimum disruption.
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'tis another lovely day. On leadership, the Conservatives would be muppets to remove Cameron likewise Labour Miliband. There's potentially something for the Lib Dems to gain by axing Clegg (depends on whether he's giving a commissioner gig, which would be ideal for them). If they want to do that they need to get a bloody move on, though.
I agree, the die is cast for the two main parties now. This is probably how we will go into the General Election as regards leadership. Of the fringe parties the same except perhaps the LDs. Clegg would be a fool to bet his house on a move to the EU as his retirement package. There are many people eager to see him come a cropper and find him left with nothing.
http://m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/31/ministers-misuse-statistics-resign
Make something up, get it out via the right wing press and let it percolate; all in the knowledge that when the official rebuke from stats people is issued this will be given very little coverage. It really is wonderfully cynical stuff and if vulnerable people and whole professions are stigmatised as a result, well who really cares? After all, they are not "one of us".
Notts election results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc#gid=0
Its not as though Labour didn't misuse statistics. Just think back to Brown and the Golden rule, or Labour announcing and then re-announcing and re-announcing again spending to make it look as tho there was an endless pot of gold..
When you think about damage, just remember what Brown did to the Country.
're stats - your labelling 'nasty party' about what all political parties do all the time implying it is uniquely a Conservative trait simply betrays your own prejudice. As for stigmatising professions I'm unclear who you mean. The fact is that most professional associations lobby shamelessly against the govt of the day with little care for accuracy or often even honesty.
However, my post was more about what looks to be a deliberate strategy. It may be completely dishonest, but it is very effective. Whoever dreamed it up is very clever, as well as extremely cynical, of course.
Tories who moan about the right wing press might usefully reflect on what an asset it remains for their party - from Mr Men to one million incapacity benefit malingerers they can be relied on to unquestioningly follow the line and so set the agenda. And when the rebuke comes and the fib is exposed they can also be relied on to ignore that. Job done.
So spare us your outrage, and ask Labour whether they repudiate this period of office or plan to reverse it.
Ed Miliband and Ed Balls will set out to prove that Labour is not soft on benefit claimants, or profligate with taxpayers’ money, in speeches next week."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10092877/Miliband-and-Balls-prepare-to-talk-tough-on-spending.html
Hypocrisy hypocrisy hypocrisy - hilarious hilarious hilarious!!!
It just demonstrates the hypocracy of the Labour party on the issue.
Anyone expecting a chango of policy on the issue with a change to a Milliband govt is deluded.
To quote George Galloway: the coalition and Labour are two cheeks on the same arse; a sentiment that Farage would agree with but perhaps not quite so colourfully.
45 minutes ring any bells?
A spokesman for Evans said on Friday: "Mr Evans is unaware of the complaint and vigorously denies any wrongdoing."'
Allies of Evans added that it was "beyond credibility" to suggest that the deputy speaker would fondle an intern in a bar in the presence of his parents."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/may/31/nigel-evans-sexual-assault-allegations
I guess what's missing is the bit about how the intern complained to the party, it's leadership, several MPs - and no action was taken......
Very odd indeed. One wonders what his motivation in coming forward now with this claim of assault is.
I read James Kirkup's piece when the story broke and it struck me as very odd in tone - simultaneously sad, angry and disappointed. It came across as if he'd thought quite highly of Mr Mercer until now. I must say - I never expected him to get involved in anything like this.
"Not all MPs are scum. Many MPs work hard for their constituents, doing their job to the best of their ability and sometimes even do some good.
So, much as it saddens me say so, here’s the worst thing Mr Mercer has done: he’s given voters another reason to write off all MPs as being as weak and greedy as him." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100219601/patrick-mercer-another-disaster-for-parliament/
"This week police contacted the former intern, who now has a full-time job away from parliament, and asked for a statement."
I mentioned the Turkey protests in Istanbul in my final post, last night.
However the situation has now worsened. Trust a government to make things worse by violent crackdown. Many secular Turks are getting fed up with their muslimist government.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22739423
Would a register of Lobbyists cover activities like the support that Atos gave the Labour conference before they got the contract for assessing disability benefits?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22738774
Quotas on the number of EU citizens working in Switzerland have come into effect for one year.
Switzerland, which is not an EU member, says immigration has reached unacceptable levels, with foreigners making up a quarter of the population.
The obvious downside of fixed-term governments is that you inevitably have lame-duck leaders who can't keep the troops on their toes.
The UKIP-esque party within the Tory party is going to have a field day once the Euro-issue bandwagon starts picking up speed as it approaches the next few stops... Mediterrean bailout defaults... Romanians & Bulgarians... and the Euro elections next May.
I suppose Labour might see a benefit in keeping schtum about Europe, and allowing some panicking Europhiles to flee to the LibDems, as it would give impetus to forces tearing at the seams of the coalition.
http://aayjay.wordpress.com/tag/muslimist/
What puzzles me is the absence of defections to UKIP (probably from the Tories though you never know). It doesn't seem to be due to a shortage of MPs who largely agree with them. Nor is the PCP notable for passionate personal loyalty to Cameron. These days, it doesn't necessarily mean losing the seat at the next election (if the MP wants to stand again, and many don't) - indeed, for a Tory in a marginal it could be a survival strategy. A defection guarantees much more limelight and potential influence on public debate than being the MP for Sleepyshire.
The only explanation I've come up with is social loyalty - MPs don't want to disappoint their constituency associations. But I'd think a defector could take a chunk of the association with them. So what's really holding them back, and will it persist?
Mind you, this is a fairly universal phenomenon. It is fine for me to slag off our country and government, but woe betide the Frenchman or yank that does the same!
At least in this case - so far - it does not appear that multiple complaints to the party hierarchy were effectively ignored or swept under the carpet.
http://barnabasfund.org/UK/News/Archives/Praying-for-the-Persecuted-Church-in-Lent-Turkey.html
One advantage of Turkey entering the EU would be the ending of legal discrimination against Christians and other minorities. It is quite possible that with wealthy Germans buying up the Anatolian coast to retire, and expelled Anatolian Greeks reclaiming areas that they were expelled from in 1923 that we may see a significantly more multicultural Turkey in the future. Right of movement works in both directions ;-)
Agree wholeheartedly with you that the disregard followed by a coverup is always the killer in any scandal. And it's missing in the Evans case, hence the issues are not as comparable as MBoy would like them to be.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/9891352/Nick-Clegg-admits-he-knew-of-Lord-Rennard-rumours-for-years.html
"Nick Clegg admits his office knew of Lord Rennard rumours for five years
Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has been forced to admit his office knew for years of claims that a senior party figure might be sexually molesting volunteers and staff"
As it happens I think the media has handled the Evans case pretty sensibly. I'm just disappointed they don't offer that behaviour to others.
Btw, Evans is not a "backbench" MP - he is Deputy Speaker, which is quite an important post.
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/404169/Are-you-sitting-comfortably
Has anyone read this week's Charlemange? If so, considering the last paragraph, maybe 'Spreadsheet' Hammond could be off-to-pastures-new in the near future....
As you say, the police are now investigating both and we shall see what the outcome is in due course.
But one was a Back Bench MP, the other Chief Executive of a Party - that's not going away, however inconvenient.
Even the Euros may not change this perception because everyone knows the track record of the (non) relationship between Euro success and GE success.
I suspect that we will not see defections of any MPs who still want to have a future at Westminster until after UKIP have actually won seats outright themselves. Once that happens then defections may well be a lot more common.
The Lib Dems contributed magnificently to their own misfortune - with their 'evolving' narrative then playing the victim claiming this was an Eastleigh stitch up.....
Not sure if this has been discussed yet but if the Telegraph revelations are true (and it seems an open and shut case to me based on the evidence they present) I find it increasingly difficult to believe that Mercer can survive as an MP. Surely allegedly offering to sell HoC passes has got to be something the police have to get involved with?
Mind you, doing that and timing a by-election for the same day as the EU elections could well see a UKIP candidate over the line.
But you're right about the problem of the "evolving" narrative. The Tories have avoided this problem by simply saying "no comment", and amazingly the press have responded by saying "Oh, okay then. We just wondered if you had anything to say about this, or knew anything about it when it happened, or asked any questions, or if anyone mentioned anything to you. But since you've said that you have no comment we'll just go back home and do some gardening instead".
LOL. You lot are hilarious.
And, sometimes at least, as a fruitcake!
That not everyone, by any means, went with Spink did give the rump time to rebuild.
(thank goodness!)
At the time of the initial complaint about Evans, which tim linked to (2009) Evans was a Back Bench MP, and was elected Deputy Speaker in June 2010.
At the time of the (it would appear largely ignored/brushed under the carpet - but the Lib Dems have got two investigations into it) complaints about Rennard he was Chief Executive of the Lib Dems, tasked with recruiting more female candidates.
There was a very large number of new MPs in 2010, both because of Conservative gains, and also the unusual number of retirements in 2010 from fallout of the expenses scandal. I think near 50%. Few novice MPs would expect to go straight into government, but 3 years later some must be feeling a little held back in their ambitions. Some like Louise Mensch may feel a little disillusioned by the life on the back benches, but others may be starting to get restive. A relatively small reshuffle this summer/autumn may be in order, to bring on a few fresh faces, and perhaps prune out a few duds, but mostly at sub-cabinet level.
I suspect that the absence of UKIP defections is more due to the uncertainty of how much of the UKIP phenomenon is a bubble, and how much is real. The anti-party feelings that I expressed down thread goes from Galloway to Farage, and getting it to cohere into an ordered manifesto is not easy.
If Cameron wins the next election, it would be the end for a defector, and if he loses it would be the end of Cameron. The end of Cameron would almost certainly lead to a much more Eurosceptic- even europhobic- leadership. It would seem sensible to therefore not defect to UKIP, and if in a safe seat, sit tight, and if in a marginal seat then cater to the potholes and Nimbys to keep the best chance of staying in post.
Remember how many Labour to SDP defectors lost their seats in 1983? including some who believed that they would take their voters with them. It is a very high risk move.
Or just turning a blind eye?
It links, too, with the comments that have been made earlier about the importance of the local association, and the point frequently made in other threads about the strength of the LibDems in many at least of the seats that they do hold, as demonstrated at the recent locals.
IIRC, in many of the seats lost by defectors in 1983, most of the Labour local party stayed loyal to Labour, which left the SDP-ers with no door-knockers etc.
https://twitter.com/OttoInglis/status/340511761226661888
Anyone know what poll this is?
Remember how many Labour to SDP defectors lost their seats in 1983? including some who believed that they would take their voters with them. It is a very high risk move.
-----------------------
You have a point there. the difference being that in UKIP we have the making of a mass movement, which the SDP clearly wasn't. However if I were an MP and leaned towards the UKIP position, I would wait until after the EU elections next year unless a new Black Swan moment arrived out of the blue.
Now I must away, with wife, for a bit of culture at the V&A. See yers later.;)
It would require Turkey to change considerably, and in effect become secular in law to a much greater degree than it is at present. The reconquista may not be over!
I cannot see any major country joining the EU for a while, though some bits of old Yugoslavia may do so.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616
In the future I could see Ukraine and the Caucasian republics being serious applicants, and It has been espoused by Ukranian politicians as a desire.
On a related note, I recruited my first Romanian doctor this week, the first of many I expect. There were no UK trained applicants for the post, which has a track record of getting to substantive consultant posts in the UK after a year or so. Her description of life as a doctor in Romania was very telling. She earned £400 pounds a month, and the people were too poor to pay for the treatments she was prescribing. It was not just the salary (she will earn ten times that in Leicester) that attracted her, but the prospect of professional development, and to treat patients to a much higher level. I am looking forward to working with her, and the language skills will be useful when we develop a bigger Romanian community next year.
Remember our little bet? you owe me a pint if more than 50 000 Romanians and Bulgarians come in the first year after the movement retrictions end.
I may want a pint of Ursus, I am sure that soon pubs will want to stock it to keep up with demand:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursus_(beer)
1. If they are right, from now on, the more the UKIP vote grows the more it affects Labour.
2. The much neglected white working class is most drawn to UKIP
3. The "like for like" rise in UKIP support year on year is around 11%. Much of the total rise year on year was down to having more candidates
4. Don't argue with UKIP on their ground - it merely feeds the beast. Either ignore it, or steal its clothing.
5. Yes their support is male and elderly and not funky and fashionably young and female. And......
6. While they link UKIP to far right radical parties in Europe, which are authoritarian in outlook, I'd have thought Farage himself is intuitively libertarian. In fact I could see him coming into conflict with his party because of it in the future
Labour has to look at it's historic base - the white working class, and also do it with enthusiasm, rather than looking like they are merely responding to polling data and covering off a base.
The Daily Mail, loyal as ever, did what it could to blow the matter up - "Fury Of The LIB Dem Women" was one classic headline - but it didn't do the trick and even Paul Dacre must have realised his organ was in danger of looking ridiculous, so it dropped the campaign.
Evans is a different gether altothing. If there is any substance in the charges, he will have to resign, and present UKIPpers with the by-election opportunity they have been aching for.
That's hialrious, Carlotta!
A minute is a hell of a time to put up with that if he wasn't enjoying it. I think if it hd happened to me, I would have let him continue - not in the hope of a bum-bashing but just to see how far he would go.
Anyway, we have to wait to see what charges may follow. If we are in by-election territory, it's a gift for UKIP - but there may nothing in it.
Nigel Farage has got himself some more oxygen by saying UKIP will take legal action if it is excluded from the TV debates at the next general election. The Independent’s report this morning has a panel by me (scroll down) on the party leader’s strengths and weaknesses in that format.
All good clean fun, but the important thing about the TV debates is that they are not going to happen in the 2015 election.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/06/01/tv-debates-not-going-to-happen/
Also interesting work on how Miliband comes across:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-warns-let-ukip-into-studio-for-tv-election-debates-or-ill-take-you-to-court-8640326.html?origin=internalSearch
Focus groups conducted by the Tories are understood to have re-enforced the arguments of those in Downing Street who say they could give Ed Miliband an electoral advantage.
Party strategists showed short clips of Mr Miliband taken from news programmes and asked voters to rate the Labour leader. The groups were then shown longer videos of his speeches and question-and-answer sessions and asked whether it had changed their views.
Sources said that voters in the focus groups had an overwhelmingly more positive view of Mr Miliband when shown the longer films.
A Downing Street insider said: “If you only watch Miliband for a couple of minutes the first thing you think is that he looks a bit odd and sounds a bit odd and you don’t really listen to what he says.
“But when you see him for longer you start listening properly and he tends to have a more positive response.”
It is worth pointing out that my new recruit is permitted under existing rules, not needing the Jan relaxation. That only applies to those without firm job offers. She is the sort of well qualified migrant with excellent English who will integrate well, and applied for a job that no UK graduate wanted.
Very different to Labour's open door policy.
Genuine question.
As long as the TV stations get two leaders, they should just announce they're going ahead and will leave empty chairs for anyone else. The US stations do this all the time, and eventually the politicians buckle.
Loved Rentoul's description of the pluses and minuses of each leader - here's Farage:
Nigel Farage:
Plus Engaging plausibility of a cheeky uncle. Everyone agrees with Ukip policies to spend more, cut taxes and pay off the national debt.
Minus Like a pub bore, you suddenly realise after the third drink that you have nothing in common with him at all.
Why William Hague’s ‘red card’ plan won’t work
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/06/why-william-hagues-red-card-plan-wont-work/
Bob Spink was MP for Castle Point.
Interestingly, Castle Point was one of the constituencies UKIP "won" at the county council elections in May.
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
While I think the debates are not a good thing I think the one thing we can guarantee is the debates will happen. The power to hold them now the precedent is in place lies firmly in the hands of the tv companies.
It is my understanding that as long as the leaders of the lib dems,labour, and conservatives are invited to take part then the show can go on even if one or more refuses. The invite I would have though fulfils the rules for lack of bias.
If a major party refused to provide party political broadcasts to fill the offered slots in the run up to an election you certainly wouldn't see the tv companies telling the other parties this meant that their ppb's couldn't be shown either.
If Cameron for instance refuses and Sky goes fine well there will be an empty chair and we will ensure it has equal air time in the debates, feel free to change your mind I am not sure there is a lot that could be done about it and he would end up having to take part.
For this reason I would also expect Farage to be included as the TV companies have the whip hand and it will make for a better tv experience
Given the events of 2010, I can understand David Cameron's caution when it comes to the televised debate format. It's entirely credible to argue the 60-minute setpiece interview will play better for Cameron who will be able to defend in depth rather than to Miliband who will be forced to explain in depth.
It's entirely credible to argue that since only the Conservative and Labour Party leaders are likely to be the next Prime Minister, then they alone should take part in debates and interviews. The problem with that is the possibility of another Parliament with no majority for any single party. It therefore becomes important to know what other parties might be saying as prospective Government partners or supporters. Indeed, the non-Tory and non-Labour represents a third of the electorate so it seems curious that they should be completely excluded.
It seems wholly appropriate for those considering voting Liberal Democrat, UKIP, Green or whatever to understand the proposed position of their party vis-a-vis the two main parties in the event of a Parliament with no overall majority for any one party and indeed wholly appropriate for those considering voting Conservative or Labour to understand what they intend to do in the same situation.
On that basis alone, NIgel Farage deserves a seat at the table but he needs to be considered not as a potential Prime Minister (which he manifestly isn't) but as a potential supporter of a future Conservative or Labour-led Government or indeed to justify supporting neither if that's the line he wishes to take.
I do wonder myself! We have a reputation for providing excellent training, and being a congenial department. As I am sure you are aware British doctors are paid good salaries, though some more than this as the post has no on call payments. As there is no on call, the hours are quite compatible with family life. Previous postholders have progressed to substantive Consultant jobs both in house and elsewhere in the country.
It is a slightly unfashionable speciality (part of the reason for the good prospects of promotion) and the Midlands are nor for everyones taste.
I think in large part we are seeing the fallout of Labours disastrous MMC changes to medical training. We lost over ten thousand doctors in that shake up andthe manpower planning was very poor. British graduates canot get posts to train to the entry level for this post.
In addition British grads are unwilling or unable to move.
Around 30% of Foundation graduates (ie 2 years post qualification) are not practicing medicine in the UK. We have astonishingly achieved the both medical unemployment and a medical staffing crisis similtaneously. It is very difficult to recruit in some specialities such as GPs in urban areas, Psychiatry (where 93% of trainees are now from outside the UK) andfor Senior Training posts in Emergency medicine (Casualty) there were 98 applicants for 200 posts nationally, and many of those were lacklustre. You can see how undesireable many of these posts are if despite the pay and prospects people prefer to leave medicine. I hate Patricia Hewitt for what she did more than any other politician of my lifetime.
Rant over. That lawn wont cut itself!
Highly recommend it if you're into this genre - the alias in-jokes are most amusing too. So far, I've counted 6 actors from Warehouse13 and Eureka in the cast playing other roles...
'Such concerns are wrapped in a serious loss of trust. In 2012, trust among the "white working class" in government stood at 23%, equalling the worst figures under New Labour. But when working-class voters were asked who would make the best prime minister, only 22% said Ed Miliband, while 42% said they did not know. This means that for every one (white) working-class voter who supports Miliband's bid for the premiership, there are two who reject all three mainstream leaders. Some may link this to ignorance, but the figures have worsened since 2010, as Miliband has become more widely known.
There are some inside Labour who see the Ukip army assembling on the hills. The MP John Mann argues that Labour must "wake up and get real on immigration", while Blue Labour types hope to translate intellectual debate into genuine connections with workers. But recognising a problem is always easier than solving it. The resentments fuelling Ukip run deep, and have built up over two decades of marginalisation and neglect. Apologies are a start. But there will be no quick fix.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22739736
Marine Le Pen clearly says some very unpleasant things, but criminal prosecution for speech that isn't encouraging anyone to do anything violent is outrageous. Where does this end? Would comparing Muslims praying in the street to the Taliban also result in racism charges? What about saying a particular black guy looks like Robert Mugabe?
This sort of stuff just shows what a crock of shit the European project is. It's whole justification is supposed to be to stand up for democratic values, yet they're quite happy to trample all over free speech, one of democracy's most fundamental values. It's such a screwed up thing that Britain's former colonies in America still hold up the great Whig principles developed here, while the UK is sacrificing her constitution to an institution that doesn't give a damn about them. John Locke must be turning over in his grave.
That seems an odd way to proceed. I'm far more interested to know what UKIP supporters think their party should do were they to be in a position to help form or influence the next Government and on that Nigel Farage has been strangely reticent.
We've seen for example UKIP Councillors in Norfolk joining forces with Labour and the Liberal Democrats to form an anti-Conservative administration - I've not heard or seen a comment from Nigel Farage on this either.
In medicine we are really just paralleling what has happened in other artisan trades. Our politicians are to blame, and I see why more people are flocking to any alternative, even the chimera that is UKIP.