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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling averages and changes with the online pollsters sinc

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling averages and changes with the online pollsters since January

Now that the Opinium poll for the Observer  and the The YouGov for the Sunday Times have both been published, all the online polls for May have been published, here’s the online polling average, to go with the phone pollster analysis I did earlier on in the week.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    I'm glad you made the comparison with the telephone poll changes because I'm quite sleepy and was certain these figures contradicted some I'd seen here earlier. I should know better than to question the integrity of a bar chart.

    Interesting that the Conservatives have, I think, done a little worse here and Labour roughly the same (maybe a little better). UKIP doing well is the only real constant, but that's obvious.

    In the telephone polls the Labour lead declined by a fair but not enormous margin, whereas here it's roughly the same.

    On Doctor Who: I must deny the story that the 50th Anniversary villain will be a renegade Time Lord known as The Dancer. It's simply not true.
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 660
    edited June 2013
    CAN I REMIND CONTRIBUTORS TO THE SITE THAT THERE IS TO BE NO SPECULATION ABOUT THE No 10 MAIL ON SUNDAY STORY

    THANK YOU
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Do these polls not underline the fact that a "rebranding" is necessary for the LibDems, and that requires the departure of Nick Clegg, and for Vince Cable to make a significant mark as Business Secretary over something like financial probity in the City.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The UKIP (A) Team, Loves it when a plan comes together. ;)

    Good morning, nice and sunny in London.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. K, are you suggesting that Farage = Hannibal?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Do these polls not underline the fact that a "rebranding" is necessary for the LibDems, and that requires the departure of Nick Clegg, and for Vince Cable to make a significant mark as Business Secretary over something like financial probity in the City.

    Maybe the Lib Dems should rebrand as the UK Liberal Party or UKLP?

    That would put the wind up Gran'dads Army. "They don't like it u'pem", you know.
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    Can we speculate that it is one of the moderators ;-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited June 2013

    Mr. K, are you suggesting that Farage = Hannibal?

    I can see the similarities between Hannibal son of Barca and Farage.

    Both vastly overrated by their supporters because of a few minor victories earlier on in their careers and on course for a major ass whooping in the war.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Good morning, everyone.

    I'm glad you made the comparison with the telephone poll changes because I'm quite sleepy and was certain these figures contradicted some I'd seen here earlier. I should know better than to question the integrity of a bar chart.

    Interesting that the Conservatives have, I think, done a little worse here and Labour roughly the same (maybe a little better). UKIP doing well is the only real constant, but that's obvious.

    In the telephone polls the Labour lead declined by a fair but not enormous margin, whereas here it's roughly the same.

    On Doctor Who: I must deny the story that the 50th Anniversary villain will be a renegade Time Lord known as The Dancer. It's simply not true.

    Hehe, Morris. Dancer is or was a well known assassin in Steven Erikson's Malazan series of books.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    And on that note I'm back off to bed.

    I can't believe I got up at 6.30 on a Sunday Morning to a write up a PB thread.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, going back to bed? It's a bit late for that. Anyway, I hope your nest is comfortable.

    Mr. K, I didn't know that. I've read Gardens of the Moon, and whilst I can see why others like it, it's not my cup of tea.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Mr. K, are you suggesting that Farage = Hannibal?

    I wouldn't say Hannibal. Perhaps Zukov's Offensive after the battle of Kursk: a broad advance on all fronts.

  • And on that note I'm back off to bed.

    I can't believe I got up at 6.30 on a Sunday Morning to a write up a PB thread.


    that's dedication.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Farage has yet to enjoy a victory comparable with Saguntum, Trebia, Trasimene or Cannae (as yet).

    Can't comment on Zukov. Presumably that's WWII?
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited June 2013
    O/T. On Friday, I attended a UKIP PPC assessment meeting. We were told that we would have three different, one-to-one meetings with 3 different assessors. To one, we had to give three 2 minute speeches. One was to be the closing speech to a hustings, the second on a topic on our choice, and the third from 'cold', with three minutes to prepare.

    The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.

    I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.

    Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Farage has yet to enjoy a victory comparable with Saguntum, Trebia, Trasimene or Cannae (as yet).

    Can't comment on Zukov. Presumably that's WWII?

    I can't comment on Punic war victories or defeats but to MHO, 20+ seats in the commons would be enough of a Cannae for me, especialy if the othe prong had succeeded in being first in the EU elections of 2014.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    O/T. On Friday, I attended a UKIP PPC assessment meeting. We were told that we would have three different, one-to-one meetings with 3 different assessors. To one, we had to give three 2 minute speeches. One was to be the closing speech to a hustings, the second on a topic on our choice, and the third from 'cold', with three minutes to prepare.

    The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.

    I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.

    Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.

    David

    Surely all you had to do was claim you were an Old Alleynian and prove it by misplacing an apostrophe.

    What is it with political parties these days?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. K, victory in the euro-elections would be significant, but not too big a surprise. 20+ Commons seats in the next election would be far more impressive/surprising.

    [For the record, Cannae is commonly considered the greatest battlefield victory in history. Hannibal was significantly outnumbered, but using a perfect strategy almost entirely annihilated the enemy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal#Battle_of_Cannae]
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    O/T. On Friday, I attended a UKIP PPC assessment meeting. We were told that we would have three different, one-to-one meetings with 3 different assessors. To one, we had to give three 2 minute speeches. One was to be the closing speech to a hustings, the second on a topic on our choice, and the third from 'cold', with three minutes to prepare.

    The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.

    I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.

    Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.

    Good luck david! At my first meeting of my local branch, they asked me if I would stand for councillor in next years local elections. I told them that I must decline as at 80, which I will be next year, I feel I would be too old.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. K, you're still younger than Antigonus Monopthalmus was when he fought at the Battle of Ipsus! [On the other hand. Antigonus did get killed and his empire carved up by his rivals afterwards...]
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MikeK said:

    O/T. On Friday, I attended a UKIP PPC assessment meeting. We were told that we would have three different, one-to-one meetings with 3 different assessors. To one, we had to give three 2 minute speeches. One was to be the closing speech to a hustings, the second on a topic on our choice, and the third from 'cold', with three minutes to prepare.

    The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.

    I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.

    Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.

    Good luck david! At my first meeting of my local branch, they asked me if I would stand for councillor in next years local elections. I told them that I must decline as at 80, which I will be next year, I feel I would be too old.

    Mike

    Why not call yourself Hannibal and apply for the Chair of 'Young Independence'?

    Just don't mention the elephants.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    O/T. On Friday, I attended a UKIP PPC assessment meeting. We were told that we would have three different, one-to-one meetings with 3 different assessors. To one, we had to give three 2 minute speeches. One was to be the closing speech to a hustings, the second on a topic on our choice, and the third from 'cold', with three minutes to prepare.

    The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.

    I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.

    Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.

    Go for Broxtowe and make it a pb grudge-match.
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited June 2013
    AveryLP said:



    David

    Surely all you had to do was claim you were an Old Alleynian and prove it by misplacing an apostrophe.

    What is it with political parties these days?

    I was, quite properly, asked no questions about my education. How can your education be relevant, when you are over 30?

    Farage has been accused of being a 'provincial stockbroker from a minor public school'. I think the most interesting word there is 'provincial' (and yet there has been much more discussion on schooling). We are accused of not bieng London centric? We plead guilty. The last election in which UKIP did really poorly was the London mayoral elections. Not every voter believes that our leader has to be part of the metropolitan elite.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2013
    MikeK said:

    Farage has yet to enjoy a victory comparable with Saguntum, Trebia, Trasimene or Cannae (as yet).

    Can't comment on Zukov. Presumably that's WWII?

    I can't comment on Punic war victories or defeats but to MHO, 20+ seats in the commons would be enough of a Cannae for me, especialy if the othe prong had succeeded in being first in the EU elections of 2014.

    The failure of Hannibal was that after destroying the Roman army at Cannae, he failed to follow up the battle, thereby losing the war. Farage needs to think on this.

    Zhukov knew how to destroy the enemy. His greatest victory was Operation Bagration in June to August 44, destroying the Nazi Army Group Center in two months, inflicting more losses on the Germans than they had at Stalingrad, or Verdun. Because of the near simultaneous D-Day battles it is not well known in the UK or USA.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration

    The lesson? Victory without follow up is squandered.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    JohnO said:

    O/T. On Friday, I attended a UKIP PPC assessment meeting. We were told that we would have three different, one-to-one meetings with 3 different assessors. To one, we had to give three 2 minute speeches. One was to be the closing speech to a hustings, the second on a topic on our choice, and the third from 'cold', with three minutes to prepare.

    The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.

    I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.

    Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.

    Go for Broxtowe and make it a pb grudge-match.
    LOL excellent idea. Throw in SeanT for Mebyon Kernow amd invite the DT bloggers to round it off.
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited June 2013
    For those interested, I am hoping to be selected for Cambridge City constituency. I know that UKIP won no councillors in Cambridge city itself, but the seat is a three-way marginal (now four-way?).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Foxinsoxuk, that's an unfair comment.

    Rome still had a huge number of men capable of bearing arms, strong defences, a very resilient base of loyalty in wider Italy and Hannibal had no siege engines. The defeat for Carthage in the Second Punic War had more to do with a lack of support for Hannibal from Carthage, the very strong loyalty of Italy to Rome and the incredibly robust Roman military/political system. It's a rather sad contrast to how Rome was when it fell to the low standards of killing Aurelian and Honorius having Stilicho killed.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Oh ho! I've got 60 tweets waiting to be unloaded.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @DavidCoburnUKip
    #Ron Paul destroys #Piers Morgan on US TV http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVFceV8gszk
    About time someone took that sanctamonious prig down a peg, or two.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mr. Foxinsoxuk, that's an unfair comment.

    Rome still had a huge number of men capable of bearing arms, strong defences, a very resilient base of loyalty in wider Italy and Hannibal had no siege engines. The defeat for Carthage in the Second Punic War had more to do with a lack of support for Hannibal from Carthage, the very strong loyalty of Italy to Rome and the incredibly robust Roman military/political system. It's a rather sad contrast to how Rome was when it fell to the low standards of killing Aurelian and Honorius having Stilicho killed.

    I accept that Rome may have lost its army, but still was a formidable opponent. They learned a lot from the defeat very quickly. Perhaps the lesson is that without the infrastructure to follow up, an isolated victory like Cannae is just a memorable flash in the pan.

    Zhukov knew about staff planning and the infrastructure to complete the job. Within the year he was in Berlin.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    OT
    "As with the phone pollsters, UKIP is the big winner since January, up from 11.67% since January to 19% now, they would be appearing to take votes nearly equally from both the Conservatives and Labour." TSE

    Just thinking that if this progression continues, UKIP will, as I said yesterday reach 26%± by years end and, as they say, that will be mighty new kettle of fish; and Farage is an expert at fishing.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MikeK said:

    OT
    "As with the phone pollsters, UKIP is the big winner since January, up from 11.67% since January to 19% now, they would be appearing to take votes nearly equally from both the Conservatives and Labour." TSE

    Just thinking that if this progression continues, UKIP will, as I said yesterday reach 26%± by years end and, as they say, that will be mighty new kettle of fish; and Farage is an expert at fishing.

    Yes, but that's a big if. Every extra percent you're trying to gain gets harder, as they're further away from your natural constituency.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Just got up and turned on Marr to see Beyonce and co thrusting their booties and singing 'Crazy for Love' in the name of empowering women.

    'When i talk to my friends so quietly
    "who he think he is?" look at what you've done to me
    Tennis shoes don't even need to buy a new dress
    You ain't there, ain't nobody else to impress'
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MikeK said:

    @DavidCoburnUKip
    #Ron Paul destroys #Piers Morgan on US TV http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVFceV8gszk
    About time someone took that sanctamonious prig down a peg, or two.

    UKIP associating themselves with Ron Paul is a really bad idea. The guy is a crank, and UKIP need to be a serious political party.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    edited June 2013
    MikeK said:

    O/T. On Friday, I attended a UKIP PPC assessment meeting. We were told that we would have three different, one-to-one meetings with 3 different assessors. To one, we had to give three 2 minute speeches. One was to be the closing speech to a hustings, the second on a topic on our choice, and the third from 'cold', with three minutes to prepare.

    The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.

    I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.

    Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.

    Good luck david! At my first meeting of my local branch, they asked me if I would stand for councillor in next years local elections. I told them that I must decline as at 80, which I will be next year, I feel I would be too old.

    I got an email from ukip the other day asking for people who wanted to stand in next years London elections... My ward of Upminster was one of those with a vacancy... So watch this space!

    What exactly does the role involve if one were to succeed?

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Interesting to hear David Kendrick's experience of getting on the national panel. I don't hope that UKIP gets an MP, but if they do it'd be great if it was David, who has identified himself here from the start, and remains civil, interesting and balanced to a fault, even when he's reporting on problems in getting people to support him because his rival is more popular. I wish him a more promising seat than Cambridge. Definitely welcome in Broxtowe!

    It's a while since I did any selection meetings (something I'll soon be remedying) but the usual format is 5- or 10-minute speeches followed by 10-15 minutes' speeches. A few questions are barred - you can't quiz candidates on whether they'll give money to the campaign, their sexual preferences, their family background, etc. A common pattern seems to be that candidates want to go on about what wonderful campaigners they are while members want to ask about their political views, to smoke out the energetic young things with shaky ideas of policy. In tightly-contested seats you have have lots of these sessions - in branch and affiliate nomination meetings, at short-listing time, and then one or more constituency hustings. You can also canvass members and send up to three leaflets - very like a mini-GE. The perception that seats are easily fixed for leadership favourites is wrong - well-advised candidates with good connections should get through to the short-list, but after that it's up to the members, who are usually notably resistant to being told what to do.

    I don't think there is now a Parliamentary panel of approved candidates as it's felt that the system is rigorous enough already, though at council level where the selectorate is smaller there is an approval process, and that's quite testing, I've heard - you get quizzed closely on what responsibilities borough vs county councils have and what you think about tricky questions that voters or the media might raise.



  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Rentoul says Ed will promise an EU referendum:

    Ed Miliband is going to promise a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union. And that means the referendum will almost certainly happen. Previously, I had assumed that David Cameron's promise of a referendum was more about managing the Conservative Party than about European policy – although that's not to say it is a bad idea. In fact, the Prime Minister's policy of renegotiating the terms of our membership of the EU and cementing the result with a referendum, with the aim of staying in the EU, is probably closest to what most British people want.


    But when the election comes closer the Labour leader will not want to put off even a handful. I predict that, within six months of the election, all four main parties will be committed to a referendum.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-miliband-dare-not-duck-an-eu-referendum-8640746.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    All these tales about UKIP on the ground sound horribly "déjà vu", to a veteran of the Liberals in the 60's and the SDP in the 80's.

    Except that the Liberals were a LOT younger. Apart from the few survivors from Lloyd George's days!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    isam said:


    What exactly does he role involve if one were to succeed?

    This is for the borough council, right? You should reckon to
    spend an evening or two a week on the official business (depending
    on how many committees you sit on) and as much as you see fit
    on keeping in touch with your voters. Serious councillors have it
    effectively as their main hobby and struggle to avoid it impinging on
    work. It's vital to enjoy it as the pay is generally peanuts (ca. £4000/year
    in Broxtowe for maybe 15-20 hours/week), but borough council work
    does have its rewards - the council is powerful enough to matter (e.g.
    on planning issues) but your ward is small enough that you can easily
    meet almost every voter is you put your mind to it. A few years of that
    and they'll re-elect you even if your party falls from fashion.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Socrates said:

    MikeK said:


    UKIP associating themselves with Ron Paul is a really bad idea. The guy is a crank, and UKIP need to be a serious political party.

    I'm not associating UKIP with anyone, least of all Ron Paul. It's just that I can't stand Piers Morgan.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    You almost make the point when referring to Labour, but it's interesting that ALL the parties have lost +/- 10% of their support.

    Con 3.43 off 30.83 (11%)
    Lab 3.93 off 40.33 (10%)
    LibD 1.3 off 9.5 (14%)

    That suggests to me that UKIP is still just top slicing off people who are hacked off with politicians generally rather than making any sophisticated policy-led appeal. The LDs suffer a little more - perhaps because they are still more of a party of protest?

    Of course limited data and MoE comes into play, but thought it was interesting to look at the relative impact.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729

    isam said:


    What exactly does he role involve if one were to succeed?

    This is for the borough council, right? You should reckon to
    spend an evening or two a week on the official business (depending
    on how many committees you sit on) and as much as you see fit
    on keeping in touch with your voters. Serious councillors have it
    effectively as their main hobby and struggle to avoid it impinging on
    work. It's vital to enjoy it as the pay is generally peanuts (ca. £4000/year
    in Broxtowe for maybe 15-20 hours/week), but borough council work
    does have its rewards - the council is powerful enough to matter (e.g.
    on planning issues) but your ward is small enough that you can easily
    meet almost every voter is you put your mind to it. A few years of that
    and they'll re-elect you even if your party falls from fashion.
    Thanks Nick.

    I didn't know it was a paid role!

    if the kind of numpties that 'like' dodgy Facebook pages are standing, how hard can it be?!!

    Is it the necessary first step to being an MP?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Another déjà vu; Clement Freud used to tell the tale of his selection to fight the Isle of Ely by-election in 1973. According to Freud the local Liberal Party didn't have that many members, so, to get a decent sized selection meeting a number of pensioners from a local Home were "bussed in" with the promise of a speech by the great man, then a popular TV personality.
    When the votes were counted it was clear that he had only won because of the votes of the pensioners!
    However apparently he also put a considerable sum on himself to win at 33-1 with Ladbrokes which, after he was elected kept the (new) full-time constituency office going until "proper" arrangements could be made.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeK said:

    Farage has yet to enjoy a victory comparable with Saguntum, Trebia, Trasimene or Cannae (as yet).

    Can't comment on Zukov. Presumably that's WWII?

    I can't comment on Punic war victories or defeats but to MHO, 20+ seats in the commons would be enough of a Cannae for me, especialy if the othe prong had succeeded in being first in the EU elections of 2014.

    So are you saying that less than 20 seats (or let's be fair 15 seats) would be an unmitigated disaster?

    I'll take the other half of that bet if you like.

    I'll give OGH £1 for each seat more than 15 UKIP win in 2015 (capped at £20) and you give him £1 for each seat less than 15 with an extra £5 (i.e. £20) if they win zero seats
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking
    Egypt's top court rules that the country's upper house and a panel that drafted the constitution are invalid

    More demo's in Tahira Square then. The whole of the Middle East is now aflame. Turkey demo's still continuing in many places.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Charles said:

    You almost make the point when referring to Labour, but it's interesting that ALL the parties have lost +/- 10% of their support.

    Con 3.43 off 30.83 (11%)
    Lab 3.93 off 40.33 (10%)
    LibD 1.3 off 9.5 (14%)

    That suggests to me that UKIP is still just top slicing off people who are hacked off with politicians generally rather than making any sophisticated policy-led appeal. The LDs suffer a little more - perhaps because they are still more of a party of protest?

    Of course limited data and MoE comes into play, but thought it was interesting to look at the relative impact.

    So UKIP taking more off Labour than Tory then. Theres a surprise!

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    MikeK said:

    Farage has yet to enjoy a victory comparable with Saguntum, Trebia, Trasimene or Cannae (as yet).

    Can't comment on Zukov. Presumably that's WWII?

    I can't comment on Punic war victories or defeats but to MHO, 20+ seats in the commons would be enough of a Cannae for me, especialy if the othe prong had succeeded in being first in the EU elections of 2014.

    The failure of Hannibal was that after destroying the Roman army at Cannae, he failed to follow up the battle, thereby losing the war. Farage needs to think on this.

    Zhukov knew how to destroy the enemy. His greatest victory was Operation Bagration in June to August 44, destroying the Nazi Army Group Center in two months, inflicting more losses on the Germans than they had at Stalingrad, or Verdun. Because of the near simultaneous D-Day battles it is not well known in the UK or USA.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration

    The lesson? Victory without follow up is squandered.
    Wounder why they chose to name the operation after the general best known for losing Austerlitz, Eylau and Borodino?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    BTW, haven't seen the usual YG Sunday polling roundup - apols if I missed it. Labour lead 9 (39/30/15/10), app -36, Cam -26, Ed -34, Nick -57, economy bad (-61), eoconomic strategy should change from deficit priority to growth priority (42-31), help Syria in humanitarian ways and a no-fly zone but not weapons or intervention, best on immigration UKIP 25, Con 18, Lab 14, none of them 29. Various movements to please each of us (e.g. last leader poll showed Ed bouncing, this drops him back, but shows a swing against government economic policy) but overall picture pretty stable.

    The only point I'd pick out is that the underlying economic view remains morose although the news has been OKish for some time. I'd guess this reflects people's personal experience - they read that things are getting a bit better, but they personally are worse off.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Anthony Wells ‏@anthonyjwells
    New post: YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 30, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 15
    http://bit.ly/16ABrjn

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Could the disturbances in Turkey have any knock-on effects on the situation in Syria?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeK said:

    Charles said:

    You almost make the point when referring to Labour, but it's interesting that ALL the parties have lost +/- 10% of their support.

    Con 3.43 off 30.83 (11%)
    Lab 3.93 off 40.33 (10%)
    LibD 1.3 off 9.5 (14%)

    That suggests to me that UKIP is still just top slicing off people who are hacked off with politicians generally rather than making any sophisticated policy-led appeal. The LDs suffer a little more - perhaps because they are still more of a party of protest?

    Of course limited data and MoE comes into play, but thought it was interesting to look at the relative impact.

    So UKIP taking more off Labour than Tory then. Theres a surprise!

    Don't read too much into that - they've already taken the easy wins from the Tories. It will become harder to win Tory supporters (they're more like Richard Nabavi) going forward, so Farage is right to focus more on the isams of the world.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    isam said:

    isam said:


    What exactly does he role involve if one were to succeed?

    This is for the borough council, right? You should reckon to
    spend an evening or two a week on the official business (depending
    on how many committees you sit on) and as much as you see fit
    on keeping in touch with your voters. Serious councillors have it
    effectively as their main hobby and struggle to avoid it impinging on
    work. It's vital to enjoy it as the pay is generally peanuts (ca. £4000/year
    in Broxtowe for maybe 15-20 hours/week), but borough council work
    does have its rewards - the council is powerful enough to matter (e.g.
    on planning issues) but your ward is small enough that you can easily
    meet almost every voter is you put your mind to it. A few years of that
    and they'll re-elect you even if your party falls from fashion.
    Thanks Nick.

    I didn't know it was a paid role!

    if the kind of numpties that 'like' dodgy Facebook pages are standing, how hard can it be?!!

    Is it the necessary first step to being an MP?
    It's not hard to stand, just hard work to do it well! You have, say, 4000 voters. Ideally you should get to know them all (more realistically, half of them) and keep track of their interests and concerns, become their first port of call when there's a problem in the area. There are of course councillors who don't bother with that and just go to some meetings, but if you were going to be a deadweight, why bother?

    it's a useful CV entry when applying to be an MP, since it shows you've worked at a lower level without disgracing yourself - if you were nuts, it would have probably become apparent. But certainly not necessary, especially in UKIP where they need up to 650 candidates and have nowhere near that many councillors.

    No offence intended, but you sound younger than some of us (not difficult in my case), so you might try first getting on the panel like David and then deliberately standing in a quiet but unpromising ward (an upmarket Tory ward with a popular councillor, maybe) to see if you enjoy it - people won't be rude to you, hy and large, and it'll be interesting but non-committal. If you enjoy it you could try more ambitiously next time.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:

    Could the disturbances in Turkey have any knock-on effects on the situation in Syria?

    Just for reference:
    Voice of Turkey ‏@VOT99
    Protester shooted by police gun. His body was taken by police also to COVER his death. #turkeyprotest http://twitpic.com/cuxuvs

    If the Turkish Islamist government collapses or fights it's own citizens, then anything could happen.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    CAN I REMIND CONTRIBUTORS TO THE SITE THAT THERE IS TO BE NO SPECULATION ABOUT THE No 10 MAIL ON SUNDAY STORY

    THANK YOU



    We await a Sally Bercow tweet abouit what's trending.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Oh those heady days of 9%. When will they come again?

    Although I continue to admire and respect the Lib Dems for doing what needed to be done in the national interest at a time of genuine danger there is something deeply amusing about a party that fights to get the balance of power since at least 1987, gets it and then is almost destroyed as a result.

    Be careful what you wish for.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    MikeK said:

    Farage has yet to enjoy a victory comparable with Saguntum, Trebia, Trasimene or Cannae (as yet).

    Can't comment on Zukov. Presumably that's WWII?

    I can't comment on Punic war victories or defeats but to MHO, 20+ seats in the commons would be enough of a Cannae for me, especialy if the othe prong had succeeded in being first in the EU elections of 2014.

    The failure of Hannibal was that after destroying the Roman army at Cannae, he failed to follow up the battle, thereby losing the war. Farage needs to think on this.

    Zhukov knew how to destroy the enemy. His greatest victory was Operation Bagration in June to August 44, destroying the Nazi Army Group Center in two months, inflicting more losses on the Germans than they had at Stalingrad, or Verdun. Because of the near simultaneous D-Day battles it is not well known in the UK or USA.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration

    The lesson? Victory without follow up is squandered.
    Wounder why they chose to name the operation after the general best known for losing Austerlitz, Eylau and Borodino?
    It may have been the Georgian connection. Bagration was a Georgian, as was Stalin, and Stalin wanted to keep the meme going of Georgia and Russia having common goals, even if this was a nobleman who fought for the Tsar.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Apologies if this has already been covered but I was slightly surprised to be presented with this headline this morning when switching on AOL: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/31/rebel-mp-tory-david-cameron-confidence-_n_3364562.html?utm_hp_re

    Reading it, it appears that the story has a remarkably thin factual base, even for Mr Hasan, basically 1 disgruntled MP so far as I can see but such stories will not help tory polling.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited June 2013
    DavidL said:

    Oh those heady days of 9%. When will they come again?

    Although I continue to admire and respect the Lib Dems for doing what needed to be done in the national interest at a time of genuine danger there is something deeply amusing about a party that fights to get the balance of power since at least 1987, gets it and then is almost destroyed as a result.

    Be careful what you wish for.

    In the L/Dems case the vast majority of the the rank and file members were against joining into a coalition with Cammo, or any Tories. Hence the collapsing base. In UKIP's case on the contrary, we strive for power on our own and the executive have the full support of the members.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Rentoul says Ed will promise an EU referendum:

    Ed Miliband is going to promise a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union. And that means the referendum will almost certainly happen. Previously, I had assumed that David Cameron's promise of a referendum was more about managing the Conservative Party than about European policy – although that's not to say it is a bad idea. In fact, the Prime Minister's policy of renegotiating the terms of our membership of the EU and cementing the result with a referendum, with the aim of staying in the EU, is probably closest to what most British people want.


    But when the election comes closer the Labour leader will not want to put off even a handful. I predict that, within six months of the election, all four main parties will be committed to a referendum.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-miliband-dare-not-duck-an-eu-referendum-8640746.html

    The way he interprets Clegg is a bit mad. British politicians always support a referendum in the next parliament, as long as they won't be in a position to actually provide one. Clegg supported an in/out referendum when there was a treaty to have a referendum on, and now instead supports a referendum on a treaty instead, now that there's no actual treaty to have a referendum on.

    So Clegg can safely support a referendum when the rules change, if he either thinks he'll be out of office, or he doesn't think there will be a treaty, or he doesn't think Britain will be party to that treaty if there is one. This is a combination of three unlikely things, the upshot of which is, "We're going to sound like we want a referendum, but you wouldn't actually get one".
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Jack Cunningham following in his father's footsteps.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729

    isam said:

    isam said:


    What exactly does he role involve if one were to succeed?

    This is for the borough council, right? You should reckon to
    spend an evening or two a week on the official business (depending
    on how many committees you sit on) and as much as you see fit
    on keeping in touch with your voters. Serious councillors have it
    effectively as their main hobby and struggle to avoid it impinging on
    work. It's vital to enjoy it as the pay is generally peanuts (ca. £4000/year
    in Broxtowe for maybe 15-20 hours/week), but borough council work
    does have its rewards - the council is powerful enough to matter (e.g.
    on planning issues) but your ward is small enough that you can easily
    meet almost every voter is you put your mind to it. A few years of that
    and they'll re-elect you even if your party falls from fashion.
    Thanks Nick.

    I didn't know it was a paid role!

    if the kind of numpties that 'like' dodgy Facebook pages are standing, how hard can it be?!!

    Is it the necessary first step to being an MP?
    It's not hard to stand, just hard work to do it well! You have, say, 4000 voters. Ideally you should get to know them all (more realistically, half of them) and keep track of their interests and concerns, become their first port of call when there's a problem in the area. There are of course councillors who don't bother with that and just go to some meetings, but if you were going to be a deadweight, why bother?

    it's a useful CV entry when applying to be an MP, since it shows you've worked at a lower level without disgracing yourself - if you were nuts, it would have probably become apparent. But certainly not necessary, especially in UKIP where they need up to 650 candidates and have nowhere near that many councillors.

    No offence intended, but you sound younger than some of us (not difficult in my case), so you might try first getting on the panel like David and then deliberately standing in a quiet but unpromising ward (an upmarket Tory ward with a popular councillor, maybe) to see if you enjoy it - people won't be rude to you, hy and large, and it'll be interesting but non-committal. If you enjoy it you could try more ambitiously next time.

    Looking at the ward I live in, Upminster, it seems there are four councillors and they are all Residents Association... Is that right?

    The current MP, Angela Watkinson, seems to be on the right of the Conservative party and won a big majority in 2010.

    I'm not that young I'm afraid, 38. Not much younger than the PM! But no offence taken!




  • Over the last 40 years, I've both worked in Cambridge (it was Kendrick Hire's top depot) and played in Cambridge (mostly cricket and bridge). I live 10 minutes from the center.

    Broxtowe? No thanks. I regard it as good when politicians respect each other, and are civil. In truth, we agree about far more things than we disagree.

    I wonder if there are any UKIP students at University?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is Ed Miliband crap enough to lose the next election?

    @iainmartin1: Is Ed Miliband the Tories' secret weapon? (My piece for the Sunday @Telegraph ) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10093021/Is-Ed-Miliband-the-Tories-secret-weapon.html
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    " Imagine this: Newspapers and broadcasters in China suddenly start to denounce the British government. They call it a ‘regime’. They say that its treatment of its Muslim minority is cruel and unjust.

    Soon, their views are echoed by the Chinese Foreign Minister, who in a speech at the United Nations says that Britain’s treatment of its minorities is a disgrace, and calls for sanctions against this country.

    The Chinese ambassador turns up as an ‘observer’ at an Islamist demonstration in Birmingham. Some protestors are injured. Carefully-edited footage of the occasion is shown on global TV stations, in which the police are made to look brutal and the provocations against them are not shown...."


    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Key message is Euroholic parties on the slide.

    Swing from pro Euro Lib + Lab > Ukip + Con.

    Labour could be on 50% if they had been in favour of a referendum now.

    Catastrophic error from rEd.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Not talking of affairs England are playing Dernbach AGAIN. What does he know for goodness sake?
  • MBoyMBoy Posts: 104
    MikeK said:

    In the L/Dems case the vast majority of the the rank and file members were against joining into a coalition with Cammo, or any Tories. Hence the collapsing base. In UKIP's case on the contrary, we strive for power on our own and the executive have the full support of the members.

    Utterly untrue. Did you enjoy making it up? At the special conference to ratify the coalition, Lib Dem members voted by 96% to endorse the coalition.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    For those interested, I am hoping to be selected for Cambridge City constituency. I know that UKIP won no councillors in Cambridge city itself, but the seat is a three-way marginal (now four-way?).

    How many Ukip candidates stood in Cambridge City ? There wasn't one in my ward.

    Last GE the LDs won with the Cons finishing suprise 2nd.

    Should imagine a Ukip candidate standing would scoop up enough of the WWC northern fringe of the city Labour vote so that the Greenohilolic (anti - A14 upgrade), Euroholic, spendoholic Dr Huppert will stay on as MP.

    God bless FPTP.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited June 2013
    MBoy said:

    MikeK said:

    In the L/Dems case the vast majority of the the rank and file members were against joining into a coalition with Cammo, or any Tories. Hence the collapsing base. In UKIP's case on the contrary, we strive for power on our own and the executive have the full support of the members.

    Utterly untrue. Did you enjoy making it up? At the special conference to ratify the coalition, Lib Dem members voted by 96% to endorse the coalition.
    I'm not talking about the conference of about 2000 members. i'm talking about the rest of the membership that wasn't represented. MODERATED
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    Is Ed Miliband crap enough to lose the next election?

    @iainmartin1: Is Ed Miliband the Tories' secret weapon? (My piece for the Sunday @Telegraph ) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10093021/Is-Ed-Miliband-the-Tories-secret-weapon.html

    It's interesting that the nicest thing that Labour's sugar daddy John Mills could say about EdM is that he's a very capable speaker. EdM is a terrible speaker , most accurately described as sounding like a robot with flu.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    The voice of reason.... Garry Bushell!


    "BBC2’s The Iraq War raised more questions than it answered. If Saddam had no WMD, wasn’t involved in 9/11 and had no stomach for war with the West, then why were we there? What did 179 British soldiers and 4,500 Yanks actually die for? Worth considering when we hear today’s politicians try to drum us into a new Sunni-Shia conflict in Syria."
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TGOHF said:

    For those interested, I am hoping to be selected for Cambridge City constituency. I know that UKIP won no councillors in Cambridge city itself, but the seat is a three-way marginal (now four-way?).

    How many Ukip candidates stood in Cambridge City ? There wasn't one in my ward.

    Last GE the LDs won with the Cons finishing suprise 2nd.

    Should imagine a Ukip candidate standing would scoop up enough of the WWC northern fringe of the city Labour vote so that the Greenohilolic (anti - A14 upgrade), Euroholic, spendoholic Dr Huppert will stay on as MP.

    God bless FPTP.
    The results in May in the wards making up Cambridge parliamentary seat were

    Lab 10150
    LDem 7257
    Con 3684
    Green 2298
    Ind 1024
    UKIP 633
    Others 118

  • MBoyMBoy Posts: 104
    edited June 2013
    MikeK said:


    I'm not talking about the conference of about 2000 members. i'm talking about the rest of the membership that wasn't represented. MODERATED

    MODERATED . What makes you think you know better than the actual membership vote what the members thought? Have any evidence to show what would have been the most bizarre result of modern times if the who turned up to vote were 96% in favour, while those who didn't were "overwhelmingly against"? I didn't think so. MODERATED
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    " Imagine this: Newspapers and broadcasters in China suddenly start to denounce the British government. They call it a ‘regime’. They say that its treatment of its Muslim minority is cruel and unjust.

    Soon, their views are echoed by the Chinese Foreign Minister, who in a speech at the United Nations says that Britain’s treatment of its minorities is a disgrace, and calls for sanctions against this country.

    The Chinese ambassador turns up as an ‘observer’ at an Islamist demonstration in Birmingham. Some protestors are injured. Carefully-edited footage of the occasion is shown on global TV stations, in which the police are made to look brutal and the provocations against them are not shown...."


    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/

    My thoughts on the Syrian intervention are much the same. I also do not like the way we seem to be lining up against Russia on this. I can see why Russia does not want an Islamist regime stoking up trouble on its Southern borders. Some help with mediation and conflict resolution would be fine, but arms to an side in a civil war so confused is insane. The history of our interventions in the Middle East is one failure after another, that have achieved little. This is a local issue for local people.

    BTW Interesting bit in the next paragraph of the article about Cannibis use by the Woolwich suspects. I have some friends who never fully recovered from Cannabis induced paranoia.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2013

    TGOHF said:

    For those interested, I am hoping to be selected for Cambridge City constituency. I know that UKIP won no councillors in Cambridge city itself, but the seat is a three-way marginal (now four-way?).

    How many Ukip candidates stood in Cambridge City ? There wasn't one in my ward.

    Last GE the LDs won with the Cons finishing suprise 2nd.

    Should imagine a Ukip candidate standing would scoop up enough of the WWC northern fringe of the city Labour vote so that the Greenohilolic (anti - A14 upgrade), Euroholic, spendoholic Dr Huppert will stay on as MP.

    God bless FPTP.
    The results in May in the wards making up Cambridge parliamentary seat were

    Lab 10150
    LDem 7257
    Con 3684
    Green 2298
    Ind 1024
    UKIP 633
    Others 118

    Still noting that Ukip put up a candidate in most county seats but not many (2-3 ?) in the city.

    My ward switched from LD to Lab after a very aggressive ground war between the two but in the GE I'd still I'll be betting LD hold.

    I wasn't convinced by the LD message enough to switch to keep the Reds out - so some work to do for the LD team.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,701
    AndyJS said:

    Could the disturbances in Turkey have any knock-on effects on the situation in Syria?

    I doubt if the Syrians are too concerned at the Turkish bourguoisie getting upset at a park getting built over.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    For those interested, I am hoping to be selected for Cambridge City constituency. I know that UKIP won no councillors in Cambridge city itself, but the seat is a three-way marginal (now four-way?).

    How many Ukip candidates stood in Cambridge City ? There wasn't one in my ward.

    Last GE the LDs won with the Cons finishing suprise 2nd.

    Should imagine a Ukip candidate standing would scoop up enough of the WWC northern fringe of the city Labour vote so that the Greenohilolic (anti - A14 upgrade), Euroholic, spendoholic Dr Huppert will stay on as MP.

    God bless FPTP.
    The results in May in the wards making up Cambridge parliamentary seat were

    Lab 10150
    LDem 7257
    Con 3684
    Green 2298
    Ind 1024
    UKIP 633
    Others 118

    Still noting that Ukip put up a candidate in most county seats but none in the city.

    My ward switched from LD to Lab after a very aggressive ground war between the two but in the GE I'd still I'll be betting LD hold.

    I wasn't convinced by the LD message enough to switch to keep the Reds out - so some work to do for the LD team.
    UKIP contested 5 of the Cambridge wards in May . Around 700 of the Ind votes were for John Hipkin in Castle ward and would be Lib Dem in a GE or when he does not stand as in 2011 .

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MikeK said:
    Farage "charming the ladies?" Is this the same Farage who said that women of child-bearing age are a "burden" to employers?

  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    edited June 2013

    isam said:

    " Imagine this: Newspapers and broadcasters in China suddenly start to denounce the British government. They call it a ‘regime’. They say that its treatment of its Muslim minority is cruel and unjust.

    Soon, their views are echoed by the Chinese Foreign Minister, who in a speech at the United Nations says that Britain’s treatment of its minorities is a disgrace, and calls for sanctions against this country.

    The Chinese ambassador turns up as an ‘observer’ at an Islamist demonstration in Birmingham. Some protestors are injured. Carefully-edited footage of the occasion is shown on global TV stations, in which the police are made to look brutal and the provocations against them are not shown...."


    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/

    My thoughts on the Syrian intervention are much the same. I also do not like the way we seem to be lining up against Russia on this. I can see why Russia does not want an Islamist regime stoking up trouble on its Southern borders. Some help with mediation and conflict resolution would be fine, but arms to an side in a civil war so confused is insane. The history of our interventions in the Middle East is one failure after another, that have achieved little. This is a local issue for local people.

    BTW Interesting bit in the next paragraph of the article about Cannibis use by the Woolwich suspects. I have some friends who never fully recovered from Cannabis induced paranoia.

    Party politics aside (I was anti the Iraq & Afghanistan wars when I was a Labour voter and haven't changed my opinion) I have always thought "what if another, more powerful, country decided they didn't like our Govt and decided to bomb us and arm our fanatics?"... Seems crazy to intervene as we do.

    On the cannabis front, I too have known people who it affected. It is not a soft drug, and I think it is fair to say smoking a joint has changed from being like drinking a pint of fosters to a can of special brew in terms of strength over the last 20 odd years


    I'm sure Hitchens is ahead of the game oñ this one
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    This is a really good batting track. What is Dernbach's record for runs conceded? Could be on today.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    edited June 2013
    perdix said:

    MikeK said:
    Farage "charming the ladies?" Is this the same Farage who said that women of child-bearing age are a "burden" to employers?

    I think that was Godfrey Bloom.

    Not all women are feminists

  • TGOHF, Mark Senior and David Kendrick etc Julian Huppert does have such tiny fingers.

    http://tinyurl.com/mjggo3s
  • perdix said:


    Farage "charming the ladies?" Is this the same Farage who said that women of child-bearing age are a "burden" to employers?

    That was another UKIP MEP Godrey.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    @foxinsox

    Surely Syria is on Russia's southern boundary in the same sort of way that Libya is on ours. Russia starts a lot more north these days but was never that close.

    Doesn't mean I disagree with your points about whether our intevention is a good idea or not. The Americans and Russia seem to have got closer to the same page and I would hope that the EU or us would not get in the way.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    DavidL said:

    This is a really good batting track. What is Dernbach's record for runs conceded? Could be on today.

    I recall him going for 100 in a 10 over spell. I've watched him a lot and never seen why he's picked, either.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    Complete shot in the dark but....

    Bresnan is going to leave the field if his wife goes into labour...
    England are batting second...
    Could he open?
    40/1 top Eng bat
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729

    DavidL said:

    This is a really good batting track. What is Dernbach's record for runs conceded? Could be on today.


    I recall him going for 100 in a 10 over spell. I've watched him a lot and never seen why he's picked, either.

    He looks good in the new kit? Good barnet?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    Essex bias perhaps, but Nasser Hussain is the best pundit on Sky isn't he?

    Great knowledge, pro active commentary, self deprecating sense of humour...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    DavidL said:

    This is a really good batting track. What is Dernbach's record for runs conceded? Could be on today.

    I recall him going for 100 in a 10 over spell. I've watched him a lot and never seen why he's picked, either.

    The good news is that if Joe Root is bowling he won't get 10 overs (unless Bresnan disappears).

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    AndyJS said:

    Could the disturbances in Turkey have any knock-on effects on the situation in Syria?

    I doubt if the Syrians are too concerned at the Turkish bourguoisie getting upset at a park getting built over.

    I don't think the park issue has much relevance now. The whole of secular Turkey is up in arms about police and political represion of the protests.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    NewZealand Revenge today?
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited June 2013
    How about a thread on the "news" from the IPPR, and Unis of Cardiff and Edinborough? Surely our Scots born, plastic-Yorkshireman (currently residing in The Duchy of Lancastershire) sub-editor could put a lawyer's nuance on the inevitability of English aspirations*...?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10093611/British-identity-is-waning-in-England.html

    One point in the article I take umbrage with is this:
    The findings will provide further ammunition for the campaign for English sports teams to have their own anthem played before international fixtures....

    Currently, most England teams line up to God Save the Queen, while squads representing Scotland and Wales sing national verses such as Flower of Scotland or Land of My Fathers.
    Ahem: "God Save the Queen" is the de facto anthem of Engerlundt! As GB the other two sing it (Ulster-Scots are excepted as an anomoly) because:

    + Wales is a proto-colony. It has a faux capital that's existence barely pre-dates my own mortal soul, and
    + Scotland is the constitutional off-spring of a failed marriage (Margaret and Wee Jimmy the Fourth) whose custodial status is currently under review.

    So let us celebrate England and her folk by discussing the renaissance of our nation. And - at the same time - let us show our respect for "Johnnie Foreigner" is our time-honoured style; with humour...!

    * In the interest of balance of course....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    MikeK said:

    NewZealand Revenge today?

    Unless England get wickets they are heading for 300 plus. With our plodders at the top of the innings that is out of reach.

    He is going to have to come back to Jimmy again soon but he really can't do it all on his own.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    AndyJS said:

    Could the disturbances in Turkey have any knock-on effects on the situation in Syria?

    I doubt if the Syrians are too concerned at the Turkish bourguoisie getting upset at a park getting built over.

    Events in Turkey are a lot more significant than a bit of Nimbyism over a park. Craig Murray had an interesting piece on this:

    http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2013/06/talking-turkey/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    and the Kissing protest in Ankara sounds like the beginning of a real culture war:

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/26/Islamists-attack-Turkey-kissing-protest-.html

    I would like to see a secular democratic state in Turkey (and indeed in every country in the world) but there is real trouble possible there between the Kemalists and the Islamists.

    On the other point:
    I agree that Syria is not physically that close to Russia, but Russia has been in conflict over its southern flank in the Balkans and Caucuses for two centuries, and there is a strong interest in the outcome there. I do not think that they should get deeply involved either. Russia Today does give a very different picture of the conflict to our own media, though very onesided it is of interest.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    AndyJS said:

    Could the disturbances in Turkey have any knock-on effects on the situation in Syria?

    It should distract the Turkish government so if they were planning to do anything in Syria (no idea if they were or on whose side) they would be less likely to do so if this carries on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Interesting about cannabis and politics. IMO political opinion got quite close to legalising it (as I recall both Anna and I took an interest in possible legalisation pre-2010) but there was a strong push-back on the reported effects on people with psychotic problems, and the politicians (including both of us) backed off.

    On Turkey - the position of liberal secular cities vs intensely traditional countryside is not new though it seems to be sharpening. The AK government has been fairly reasonable until recently (and a lot more open-minded than its secular military-backed predecessors), but an authoritarian streak is now appearing. Their position on Syria has been discreet support for the rebels (not least as they're having to house lots of refugees in Turkey) but stopping short of air strikes or the like. They aren't getting into the Sunnis vs Shias stuff and are wary of those who do.

    I'm surprised there haven't been more reports of Iraq-Syria cooperation. They share some of the same enemies (militant Sunni extremists in general and Al Quaeda in particular) though Assad is both more secular and more dictatorial than the Shia-led government in Iraq (which for all its faults was elected after a fairly clean election). Has the Iraqi government taken sides?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    tim said:

    Survation

    Con 25
    Lab 36
    UKIP 20
    LD 10

    @DavidWooding: How are PM's efforts to combat extremism viewed? And that Ibiza holiday? More from Survation poll. http://t.co/Kq8VWvwJkm


    And some dire numbers for the chillaxed fop PM personally

    The article seems to think that 36-25=9. The numbers no worse than the last two Survation polls (indeed 1% better for both major parties with UKIP 2 points off the peak) but they were pretty scary for the Tories, so the persistent results are not reassuring for them. I think the criticism of Cameron on terror is unfair, especially given that Woolwich seems to have been a one-off, but the laid-back image is not helping him recover. (And whoever does his PR was bonkers to release pictures from the holiday.)

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