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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will be the UK’s next Man in Brussels?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will be the UK’s next Man in Brussels?

By this time next year, there’ll have been plenty of time to pick over the results of the European and local elections, for analysts, activists, elected members and party leaders alike.  The local elections are something of a mirror-image to this year’s: heavily weighted to urban areas, including London.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • It should always be noted when this topic is raised that it is illegal under EU law (article 17(3) TEU) for a Commissioner to be a Euroscpetic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Noone gives a stuff about who the EU commissioner is - Baroness Cathy Ashton for the love of ?
    Just let Clegg step down as Lib Dem leader 3 months or so before next GE and give him the job.
    I still think Clegg.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'd rather lazily assumed that it would be Andrew Mitchell, given that he is of Cabinet level seniority, available, sufficiently Eurosceptic and owed a favour.

    An interesting alternative would be David Davis. The rightwing of the Conservative party could hardly complain that David Cameron was ignoring them.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Whats this about a reshuffle I hear? From the Sun:

    "Cabinet reshuffle 'five weeks away'
    David Cameron is preparing for a Cabinet reshuffle in five weeks time, the Sun reports. According to the newspaper, Sir George Young will step down as Chief Whip in July, with the top tips to take over named as either former Defence Secretary Liam Fox or former energy minister John Hayes. Meanwhile the Times reports that there will be a series of mini reshuffles, with further reorganisations planned for September and possibly next year. The newspaper quotes a Whitehall source who says Communities Secretary Eric Pickles could become the next Chief Whip."

    So no waiting for next year then. Has DH missed this?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mitchell makes sense. Clegg would be an insane appointment, as I've said for ages.

    Feels weird to have to wait until the afternoon for the third practice session. Not sure whether the pre-race piece will be up this evening or tomorrow morning, but the pre-qualifying piece will be up around 4.30pm, hopefully.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Amazon review for SeanT's new book accuses him of not getting his Cornish locations right:

    " I am a big fan of Tom Knox having thoroughly enjoyed all his other books. The problem for me in this one is the Cornwall part, being a native to the area, it doesn't paint the places correctly. The story is fantastic as always, but this part has been a let down as I like to have a clear picture of the setting and I know this one isn't right for instance the hospital in the story is described as being in the middle of Bodmin Moor but its not really it's just on the outskirts of the town. If you are going to use an area/ place that really exists then get it right or make up one. However, moan over if you don't know the area then the book is a cracking good read. "
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    antifrank said:

    I'd rather lazily assumed that it would be Andrew Mitchell, given that he is of Cabinet level seniority, available, sufficiently Eurosceptic and owed a favour.

    And you'd probably be right. I couldn't find any odds but he ought to be in the marginal odds-on range. Still, that leaves scope for others.

    I'm not sure about David Davis. His star is on the wane and it's not really the sort of position that would be likely to appeal to him, though he could always resign in protest and cause a brief fuss.

    As LiaMT notes though, the tricky part for Cameron will be nominating someone sufficiently Eurosceptic enough to placate his backbenchers, party and the right-wing press (and we shouldn't underestimate that factor), while also EU-friendly enough to win approval as a commissioner.

    Pulpstar - I'd make Clegg top-side of 20/1. Given Cameron's perceived patchy track record on EU referendum promises, I very much doubt he'll undermine his pledge on renegotiation by nominating an arch-Europhile as commissioner, and particularly not one from another party. Besides, the timing is wrong for three months out from the election (i.e. Feb 2015). The nomination needs to be made in the summer of 2014, close after the Euroelections, where the Tories are likely to come third and the Lib Dems quite possibly fifth. Red meat will be required.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Clegg deserves it but could Cameron afford the fall out that would arise with his sceptics? Probably depends on the polling. If there is a significant tory recovery then yes, if they stay anywhere near their current level, no chance.

    We have now had the best part of two months of increasingly positive economic news and the tories, if anything seem to be having a dip, even as Miliband makes himself look foolish again and again. The risk of an economic recovery without the votes (per 1994-7) is real. I don't think Clegg should be packing any bags just yet.

    Is Mitchell a francophone? I thought that was still fairly essential.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    To respond to DH, how about ...

    ... David Cameron ?

    Now that he's shown as being an electoral drawback to the Conservatives - not to mention the additional negative effect his chumocracy have - wouldn't it be a good way for him to leave the leadership ?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The ES yesterday suggested Cabinet returns for Mitchell and Fox:

    Liam Fox and Andrew Mitchell set for return as David Cameron plans double cabinet reshuffle

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/liam-fox-and-andrew-mitchell-set-for-return-as-david-cameron-plans-double-cabinet-reshuffle-8649370.html

    I think you are also looking for someone who has given up all hope of holding high office - and misplaced as that may be, I do not see Davis holding that view of himself....

    As a Eurosceptic can still have 'European commitment" - not sure article 17(3) rules one out:

    3. The Commission's term of office shall be five years.
    The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt.
    In carrying out its responsibilities, the Commission shall be completely independent. Without prejudice to Article 18(2), the members of the Commission shall neither seek nor take instructions from any Government or other institution, body, office or entity. They shall refrain from any action incompatible with their duties or the performance of their tasks.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    What are the alternatives? Not many is the simple answer. History and convention
    suggests that the role is effectively a cabinet-level position but it’s difficult to see
    Cameron wanting to give up any of his big hitters, or, for that matter, why they’d be too
    keen to go.
    This is going to sound like an anti-Tory snark, but they're probably all going to be out of a job anyhow a few months after the new commissioner starts. Why wouldn't they want to go? It would be a good career move for anyone who didn't expect to be leader. And sending a big hitter makes it more likely they'll get a big job.

    Hague would be fine, as would Osborne, and getting rid of the latter would be good for their general election prospects.
  • @CarlottaVance
    Given that the EU (falsely) equates itself with Europe as a matter of ideology, the point stands.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Amazon review for SeanT's new book accuses him of not getting his Cornish locations right:

    I think that's called "dramatic licence" - I'd always thought of the great pyramids of Giza being in the wilderness - not slap bang next to urban sprawl....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    @CarlottaVance
    Given that the EU (falsely) equates itself with Europe as a matter of ideology, the point stands.

    When was the last time a Commisioner was rejected on that basis?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cam should offer it to Farage.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    Cam should offer it to Farage.

    He wouldn't take it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Cam should offer it to Farage.

    He wouldn't take it.
    Too lazy ?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Pulpstar said:

    Noone gives a stuff about who the EU commissioner is - Baroness Cathy Ashton for the love of ?
    Just let Clegg step down as Lib Dem leader 3 months or so before next GE and give him the job.
    I still think Clegg.

    If Cameron put an ardent Europhile in place who would be quite happy to sacrifice British interests for the sake of European unity, it would rightly cause half the party to rebel.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Dan Hannan would be a good option.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Cam should offer it to Farage.

    He wouldn't take it.
    Too lazy ?

    No. He'd have to give up his job as leader of UKIP. Why would he want to stop there, when the excellent job he's doing in making them a major party is only half finished.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lots of Labour selections during the weekend....IIRC we will see candidates for Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Manchester Withington, NE Somerset and Bristol South by the of the day.

    Christian Matheson has been selected in City of Chester last night. He used to work in the Unite General Secretary Office and now works in the HR Department.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    What about Michael Gove?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Socrates said:

    What about Michael Gove?

    if we could get the "Internal Market & Services" that Brown moronically let the French (?!?!!!) have - might be worth a punt - in 2014 he'll be looking for a "big project" with most of the Education stuff well en-route.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:
    Unbelievable. Labour first and now the Coalition are allowing immigration to make parts of this nation like a developing country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Mitchell is probably the most plausible choice, a mild Eurosceptic, but not a BOO man like Patterson or Hammond and tougher then Maude, who is anyway busy with civil service reform! If Clegg does not get the job then he will be the LDs sacrificial lamb in 2015!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    HYUFD said:

    Mitchell is probably the most plausible choice, a mild Eurosceptic, but not a BOO man like Patterson or Hammond and tougher then Maude, who is anyway busy with civil service reform! If Clegg does not get the job then he will be the LDs sacrificial lamb in 2015!

    Hammond isn't a BOOer. He wants reform inside the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
    •Rand Paul (R) 37%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
    •Rick Santorum (R) 36%

    •Joe Biden (D) 45%
    •Rand Paul (R) 41%

    •Joe Biden (D) 46%
    •Rick Santorum (R) 39%
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    HYUFD said:

    Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
    •Rand Paul (R) 37%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
    •Rick Santorum (R) 36%

    •Joe Biden (D) 45%
    •Rand Paul (R) 41%

    •Joe Biden (D) 46%
    •Rick Santorum (R) 39%

    If you look at the gubernatorial match-ups in Pennsylvania, it's clear the state has swung very hard back to the Democrats. Combined with the Republicans running one of their most lunatic politicians for Lt. Governor in Virginia, that's two swing states the GOP could be giving up.
  • Philip Hammond? - Nah, he fancies Cameron's job and the betting market agrees!
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Philip Hammond is the most plausible candidate for the next NATO General Secretary. I'd prefer that he'd stay at defence until 2022 but....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Pickles to be Chief Whip?
    "A re-arrangement of the junior ministerial ranks is expected in July followed by a Cabinet reshuffle in September. There is even talk of a third reshuffle next year. The news has set off inevitable speculation about the possible winners and losers. One Whitehall source said that Eric Pickles, the Communities Secretary, was in line to become the party’s new chief whip in an attempt to restore some discipline on the Tory benches." - The Times (£)


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Cameron criticised by Carswell over Bilderberg
    "David Cameron has been accused of joining the "unaccountable clique of Davos men" after he attended the secretive Bilderberg group meeting at the luxury Grove hotel in Watford, a move that raised questions about his pledge to lead Britain's most transparent government. Douglas Carswell, the Tory MP who campaigns for transparency in government, said the prime minister was taking part in a "cliche fest" whose participants had helped crash the global financial system. Davos is the town in Switzerland that hosts an annual meeting of global political and business leaders." - The Guardian
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Socrates - He has said he supports withdrawal if membership cannot be renegotiated like Gove
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Socrates - Indeed, and if the GOP run a hard right candidate against Hillary (quite likely given Christie is now persona non grata among many Republicans for not appointing a Republican to succeed Lautenberg and after his remarks supporting Obama after Sandy) and after running a moderate in 2008 and 2012 Pennsylvania is likely to swing to the Democrats in 2016 even more. The Virginia governor race this year will also be interesting
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @SeanT

    You asked for suggestions about a new blog post. How about one combining the French holding up trade negotiations with the US over their entertainment industry, holding up trade negotiations with Canada over their beef industry, while doing their hardest to get an FTT in place and regulation of LIBOR moved to Paris, which would wreck our financial sector.

    You could even throw in something about a military coup.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    HYUFD said:

    Socrates - He has said he supports withdrawal if membership cannot be renegotiated like Gove

    Rather than staying in no matter how much the EU screws us? Sounds like the sort of person we need. Hammond or Gove or Paterson would all be good options.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,773
    DavidL said:

    Clegg deserves it but could Cameron afford the fall out that would arise with his sceptics? Probably depends on the polling. If there is a significant tory recovery then yes, if they stay anywhere near their current level, no chance.

    We have now had the best part of two months of increasingly positive economic news and the tories, if anything seem to be having a dip, even as Miliband makes himself look foolish again and again. The risk of an economic recovery without the votes (per 1994-7) is real. I don't think Clegg should be packing any bags just yet.

    Is Mitchell a francophone? I thought that was still fairly essential.

    I don't think the government is anything like as unpopular as it was in 1994-97. Compare local election results since 2010 with those from 1993 onwards. Their biggest danger is that many centre-right voters don't care much about the outcome in 2015.


  • As a Eurosceptic can still have 'European commitment" - not sure article 17(3) rules one out:

    3. The Commission's term of office shall be five years.
    The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt.

    If it was felt that Cameron's candidate lacked European commitment, what would the procedure be for rejecting him?

    A political fight over the issue might help Cameron with the Eurosceptics -"I'm fighting to get a commissioner who will stand up for Britain" - especially if he can force his candidate through against opposition.

    I don't think Cameron would openly pick a fight, but he may not be averse to one, as long as it doesn't look like he deliberately provoked it.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:
    Unbelievable. Labour first and now the Coalition are allowing immigration to make parts of this nation like a developing country.
    And look at this story, just yesterday:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2337593/It-beggars-belief-Anger-shopkeepers-Roma-gypsies-set-camp-Marble-Arch-London.html

    These aren't Romanians, they are Roma. And anyone who has been to Eastern Europe, Romania and Hungary etc, knows that Roma bring massive social problems. And we have imported several hundred thousand, with many many more to come, thanks to the EU, and there is nothing we can do about it.

    I reckon this could be what propels us from the European Union.
    But how can EU immigration have bad effects? On average, they're more educated than indigenous Brits and its pro-market Thatcherism. Or so says tim.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,773
    TGOHF said:

    Cam should offer it to Farage.

    It would be a step down for Farage.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    How come we didn't get many Roma from Hungary when they joined?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romani_people_by_country
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Socrates - Cameron will not pick a Europhile, but he will not pick an anti either, which is why it will probably be Mitchell
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Sean F - Mitchell worked for Lazards, and the Lazard brothers were French
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    As a Eurosceptic can still have 'European commitment" - not sure article 17(3) rules one out:

    3. The Commission's term of office shall be five years.
    The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt.

    If it was felt that Cameron's candidate lacked European commitment, what would the procedure be for rejecting him?

    A political fight over the issue might help Cameron with the Eurosceptics -"I'm fighting to get a commissioner who will stand up for Britain" - especially if he can force his candidate through against opposition.

    I don't think Cameron would openly pick a fight, but he may not be averse to one, as long as it doesn't look like he deliberately provoked it.

    The Commisioner has to be completely independent so can't "stand up for Britain" - he or she can of course have beliefs which Britain shares (so Brown giving internal market reform to a Frenchman still staggers even at this distance) - and the whole Commission is subject to approval by MEPs - who in the past have blocked some candidates (Berlusconi's nomination for Justice who had written that homosexuality was a sin, for example).
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    HYUFD said:

    Socrates - Indeed, and if the GOP run a hard right candidate against Hillary (quite likely given Christie is now persona non grata among many Republicans for not appointing a Republican to succeed Lautenberg and after his remarks supporting Obama after Sandy) and after running a moderate in 2008 and 2012 Pennsylvania is likely to swing to the Democrats in 2016 even more. The Virginia governor race this year will also be interesting

    I'm not sure you can count Mitt Romney as a moderate. He ran on a far more right-wing platform than George Bush did. However, their actual moderation matters a lot less than how they are perceived. Marco Rubio is very conservative, but is seen as a moderate, so could put in a decent showing, if the immigration issue doesn't blow up in his face. Paul Ryan isn't seen as a moderate any more, and Ted Cruz is considered extreme by everyone. I think the establishment GOP would block Rand Paul. Scott Walker seems like he could be the back-up if Rubio doesn't get through.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Prince Harry is our man.

    He has come on leaps and bounds since the swimming incident in Las Vegas.

    And he is likely to be eclipsed as a focus of attention when the new heir arrives in July.

    He is an Old Etonian too, which adds competence to eligibility.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:
    Unbelievable. Labour first and now the Coalition are allowing immigration to make parts of this nation like a developing country.
    And look at this story, just yesterday:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2337593/It-beggars-belief-Anger-shopkeepers-Roma-gypsies-set-camp-Marble-Arch-London.html

    These aren't Romanians, they are Roma. And anyone who has been to Eastern Europe, Romania and Hungary etc, knows that Roma bring massive social problems. And we have imported several hundred thousand, with many many more to come, thanks to the EU, and there is nothing we can do about it.

    I reckon this could be what propels us from the European Union.
    But how can EU immigration have bad effects? On average, they're more educated than indigenous Brits and its pro-market Thatcherism. Or so says tim.

    " Imad Habid, has run Park Lane News, which is directly opposite the patch of grass occupied by the Romanians, for 21 years said: 'The council keep clearing all the boxes and everything, but today they didn't turn up so they haven't moved. At 8 o'clock they usually go to different points for begging "

    " Mohammed Khan, 25, who runs a souvenir stall opposite the site said: 'They are always begging around here and approaching people who look rich and when they refuse to give them money they push them three or four times. "

    If the criticism had come from a Mr Smith or a Mr Jones the PB lefties would have already made accusations of racism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Socrates - Romney was the moderate against Santorum and Newt though. Whoever wins Iowa has a good chance, including Paul and Santorum. The establishment could not stop Paul if he had enough momentum, much as they could not stop Goldwater in 1964, though many may secretly vote for Hillary over Paul in the general. Immigration could hit Rubio amongst the base
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,773
    Another Richard, they're doing the jobs that the lazy Brits won't do.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited June 2013

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:
    Unbelievable. Labour first and now the Coalition are allowing immigration to make parts of this nation like a developing country.
    And look at this story, just yesterday:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2337593/It-beggars-belief-Anger-shopkeepers-Roma-gypsies-set-camp-Marble-Arch-London.html

    These aren't Romanians, they are Roma. And anyone who has been to Eastern Europe, Romania and Hungary etc, knows that Roma bring massive social problems. And we have imported several hundred thousand, with many many more to come, thanks to the EU, and there is nothing we can do about it.

    I reckon this could be what propels us from the European Union.
    But how can EU immigration have bad effects? On average, they're more educated than indigenous Brits and its pro-market Thatcherism. Or so says tim.

    " Imad Habid, has run Park Lane News, which is directly opposite the patch of grass occupied by the Romanians, for 21 years said: 'The council keep clearing all the boxes and everything, but today they didn't turn up so they haven't moved. At 8 o'clock they usually go to different points for begging "

    " Mohammed Khan, 25, who runs a souvenir stall opposite the site said: 'They are always begging around here and approaching people who look rich and when they refuse to give them money they push them three or four times. "

    If the criticism had come from a Mr Smith or a Mr Jones the PB lefties would have already made accusations of racism.
    Of course they would.

    I suspect they will call the people who linked the article racist instead, or the journalist who wrote it.

    Its amazing how flexible the racist smear is. Here we have a couple of London shopkeepers saying that immigrants of different colour to them are smelly beggars. But no one will call them racist (of course they probably aren't)

    To me these double standards are racist.. why not treat people the same regardless of skin colour?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2013
    A positive story about immigration - this polish doctor has set up a clinic for those who cant wait for the NHS - enterprising chap.

    Wouldn't be surprised if more of these spring up all over the country.

    Patients before staff ? The NHS-o-holics will be scratching their heads...


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2337682/Patients-shun-NHS-clinics-run-Polish-GPs-Cut-price-private-surgeries-doctor-seven-days-week.html

    "A private doctor’s surgery run by Poles is attracting thousands of patients who have given up on the NHS.
    Open seven days a week, usually until 11pm, the clinic gives half-hour appointments – three times longer than usual.

    And, despite charging £70 a visit, it already has almost 6,000 Britons on its books. Customers are welcomed into the spotless and modern centre by friendly receptionists whose motto is to ‘put patients first’."


    "Another British patient, who did not want to be named, said the care she received was ‘beyond comparison’ with that offered by the NHS.

    She said: ‘I got an appointment when it was convenient to me and that made a huge difference straight away. I needed physiotherapy and I didn’t want to wait ages for an appointment.

    ‘I tried the NHS but I felt like I was getting nowhere because they kept sending me to people who said they couldn’t help me. I feel like I can trust what they tell me at My Medyk, they work to give me what I need, rather than make my need fit into a big system.’

    "
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    PS The really scary story in the Mail today is the photo's of Mrs Blair's sister -ooft !
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Fascinating story about human echo-location:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22805748

    I actually already knew this was possible, through the educational medium of videogames. The Last of Us has fungal zombies, some of whom use echo-location (the Clickers).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg deserves it but could Cameron afford the fall out that would arise with his sceptics? Probably depends on the polling. If there is a significant tory recovery then yes, if they stay anywhere near their current level, no chance.

    We have now had the best part of two months of increasingly positive economic news and the tories, if anything seem to be having a dip, even as Miliband makes himself look foolish again and again. The risk of an economic recovery without the votes (per 1994-7) is real. I don't think Clegg should be packing any bags just yet.

    Is Mitchell a francophone? I thought that was still fairly essential.

    I don't think the government is anything like as unpopular as it was in 1994-97. Compare local election results since 2010 with those from 1993 onwards. Their biggest danger is that many centre-right voters don't care much about the outcome in 2015.


    Not to mention comparing the economic performance of 1994-7 to what even the optimists hope for by 2015 is ridiculous.

    During 1994-7 the economy grew by 15% and was over 30% larger than it had been a decade earlier.

    Unemployment fell by over a million while earnings growth was well ahead of inflation, personal debt was much lower than now while higher savings interest, a soaring stock market and building society demutualisations provided financial windfalls for millions.

    Productivity growth was much higher, industrial ouput at an all time high and Britain ran a trade surplus for four consecutive years.

    Is any of that going to be repeated by 2015 ?

    With the possible exception of a QE fueled stock market, no.
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited June 2013
    The argument that voting UKIP might mean we get Miliband hasn't the potentcy for Tory voters it might have had. The socialists will be able to do much less damage in 2015, when there is no money to spend. That is in sharp contrast to 1997, when they had shed-loads to waste.

    There would be less difference between a govt run by Cameron and a govt run by Miliband than between being in or out of the EU.

    If you want immigration controls, you have no option but to vote UKIP. If you want to quit the EU for other reasons, you have to vote UKIP. Why? Because the stronger the UKIP vote, the more likely you are to get what you want, however few UKIP MPs are actually elected at the next GE.
  • Maude is the obvious Europhile who Cameron would pick. He might try to get Paterson out of his hair, but I think he wouldn't be smoked out of his badger layer: he's a man waiting for greater prominence when Cameron departs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Kendrick, there is practically no situation that cannot be made drastically worse.

    I'd add that the Conservatives will have a manifesto commitment to an EU referendum. Even if you distrust Cameron, you'd be a fool not to believe his party would happily ditch him if it meant securing a referendum.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2013


    I'd add that the Conservatives will have a manifesto commitment to an EU referendum. Even if you distrust Cameron, you'd be a fool not to believe his party would happily ditch him if it meant securing a referendum.

    Just because it's in their manifesto doesn't mean they actually want to do it. If you're a Euro-sceptical-but-non-BOO Tory - and most MPs probably still are although the BOOs are growing - a referendum is a great thing to advocate but a terrible thing to actually have.

    It's good to advocate because it covers you with the BOO elements of your base without you actually needing to agree with them. But it's terrible to actually have it, because you lose either way: Either an "out" result which you don't want by definition, or a positive "in" result that risks inviting more integration that you don't want.

    If a triumphant majority-winning Cameron, who would presumably have seen off UKIP in 2015, wanted to hold off on his referendum until treaty negotiations were complete, and that gradually got put off due to the fecklessness of our European cousins until it ended up being something for the third term not the second, the party probably aren't going to knife him over it.

    PS. It may not actually be in the manifesto - the current official position is still weaselly.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    HYUFD said:

    Socrates - Cameron will not pick a Europhile, but he will not pick an anti either, which is why it will probably be Mitchell

    I reckon he could go ahead and pick an anti, if there's a capable one around. Keeps that wing of the party happy, where's the harm? It doesn't really matter what the Commissioners think about the EU constitution. If you're put in charge of fish, what matters is what you think about fish.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Would John Major be too old (70)?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Would John Major be too old (70)?

    I'd have thought so. I mean, he might be able to serve a term but why would he want to? He probably wouldn't even get a very senior job...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Sean_F said:

    Another Richard, they're doing the jobs that the lazy Brits won't do.

    yes begging and robbing, lovely
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Does the candidate have to be an Old Etonian?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2013

    Does the candidate have to be an Old Etonian?

    Good point.

    Rory Stewart would make for a good news cycle.
    Stewart attended the exclusive Bilderberg Conference in June 2011, along with leading world politicians and bankers including UK Conservative Chancellor George Osborne. Columnist Charlie Skelton commented in the Guardian that this made it likely that Stewart would receive a "forthcoming promotion", based on the history of other politicians invited to the exclusive Bilderberg group.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    What about Boris? That would get rid of a rival.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    If they picked an MP do we reckon they'd have to have a by-election to fill the seat, or could they stay in parliament until the last minute then leave the seat unfilled until the general election?

    If it's going to need a by-election, look for a non-MP.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    What about Boris? That would get rid of a rival.

    He'd be mad to take it - it's a job for detail people, Boris's thing is getting attention.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited June 2013

    Would John Major be too old (70)?

    I'd have thought so. I mean, he might be able to serve a term but why would he want to? He probably wouldn't even get a very senior job...
    I'm struggling: It may be 'cause I hate soy-sauce though. How would Sir John Major struggle to get a high-powered EU role when Baroness Ashton could?

    Lets face it: He was a successful politician who pushed through Maastricht. And Cathy was one of Gormless's "brilliant plans". Gaijin, what is Abe putting in your water...?
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 140
    Surely the last thing the Tories need is a reinvigorated Lib Dem Party? Notwithstanding his euro-philia, the Tories would prefer Clegg where he is.

    Does it have to be an mp or former mp. Not Adair Turner, but someone like Adair Turner - more adept at bureaucratic politics than many mp's
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 140
    Temperamentally Mitchell does not have what it takes to be a good commissioner. Too much of a bruiser. I wish he was back at ODA myself, where he was very good.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited June 2013
    "Cam should offer it to Farage."

    Yes, I'd like to see a Belgian MEP inform Farage that he comes from a non-country (which in a sense he does) and has all the charisma of a wet rag, then ask him : "Who are you?"
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    Does it have to be an mp or former mp. Not Adair Turner, but someone like Adair Turner - more adept at bureaucratic politics than many mp's

    Sir Alex Ferguson is free (end-of-contract, therefore no transfer-fee). Jocular, anglo-phile and - allegedly - fond off a bottle (nae, two-or-more) of wine.

    :win-wine-whine:

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    "Cam should offer it to Farage."

    Yes, I'd like to see a Belgian MEP inform Farage that he comes from a non-country (which in a sense he does) and has all the charisma of a wet rag, then ask him : "Who are you?"

    Except Farage wouldn't take it, has charisma and everyone knows who he is.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Except Farage wouldn't take it, has charisma and everyone knows who he is."

    1) Wouldn't he? He's happy enough to pocket his fat MEP salary.
    2) In the eye of the beholder.
    3) Let's put that to the test in a Belgian opinion poll, shall we?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    "Except Farage wouldn't take it, has charisma and everyone knows who he is."

    1) Wouldn't he? He's happy enough to pocket his fat MEP salary.
    2) In the eye of the beholder.
    3) Let's put that to the test in a Belgian opinion poll, shall we?

    Bitterness rising
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Bitterness rising"

    Eh?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    The so-called “neverendum” is a primal fear of the No camp. The word isn’t in the dictionary, but what it actually translates to is “democracy”. It’s not a “neverendum” if the Tories lose an election but then get to contest another one five years later. Some UK Parliaments have lasted barely eight months before asking the electorate for their opinion again. Even dictatorships eventually fall. Nothing in politics is forever.

    This site doesn’t want to see an independence referendum every five years. We very much hope – just as Ruth Davidson does – that only one will ever be required, though for the opposite reason. But whichever side loses the 2014 vote, they will be perfectly entitled to stand for election on a manifesto offering another one, and to implement that policy if they are democratically elected with a majority. That’s not only how democracy works, it’s how it must work. No government can bind its successors. “Stability” is every despot’s excuse...

    Because it’s a punchy slogan, this site is fond of using the phrase “Vote No Get Nothing”. But the more evidence we collect, the more apparent it is that such a view is a seriously over-optimistic assessment of the reality.

    If Scotland gives up its only bargaining chip next year by voting for continued Westminster rule, the powers of the Scottish Parliament – which has so ungratefully exceeded the limits of what it was meant to be permitted to achieve – will be curtailed, not extended. It won’t be one chance in 307 years. It’ll be one chance forever.


    http://wingsoverscotland.com/changing-the-rules-of-the-game/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Roma in Hungary are not particularly well-treated, but they are nowhere near as badly treated as they are in Romania, the former Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. Roma are coming to western Europe as much through push as through pull.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "Cam should offer it to Farage."

    Yes, I'd like to see a Belgian MEP inform Farage that he comes from a non-country (which in a sense he does) and has all the charisma of a wet rag, then ask him : "Who are you?"

    I love the way you find it so awful Farage called Belgium a "non-country", despite that's how you regularly refer to the UK, despite the facts that there is far more attachment to a British identity than a Belgium one, that the UK has a common language, and that the UK has an extra century of history over Belgium.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Cameron should offer it to Ken Clarke. He is sure to be accepted as probably the most ardent Europhile in British politics. It would also utterly negate his ability to influence opinion either inside the Tory party or with the public at large.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,719
    How about Chris Huhne?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:
    Unbelievable. Labour first and now the Coalition are allowing immigration to make parts of this nation like a developing country.
    And look at this story, just yesterday:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2337593/It-beggars-belief-Anger-shopkeepers-Roma-gypsies-set-camp-Marble-Arch-London.html

    These aren't Romanians, they are Roma. And anyone who has been to Eastern Europe, Romania and Hungary etc, knows that Roma bring massive social problems. And we have imported several hundred thousand, with many many more to come, thanks to the EU, and there is nothing we can do about it.

    I reckon this could be what propels us from the European Union.
    But how can EU immigration have bad effects? On average, they're more educated than indigenous Brits and its pro-market Thatcherism. Or so says tim.

    " Imad Habid, has run Park Lane News, which is directly opposite the patch of grass occupied by the Romanians, for 21 years said: 'The council keep clearing all the boxes and everything, but today they didn't turn up so they haven't moved. At 8 o'clock they usually go to different points for begging "

    " Mohammed Khan, 25, who runs a souvenir stall opposite the site said: 'They are always begging around here and approaching people who look rich and when they refuse to give them money they push them three or four times. "

    If the criticism had come from a Mr Smith or a Mr Jones the PB lefties would have already made accusations of racism.
    Very, very true.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I love the way you find it so awful Farage called Belgium a "non-country", despite that's how you regularly refer to the UK"

    Ahem. That was kind of the point I was making, Soc. If Farage reckons Belgium is a non-country, then the UK most certainly is. (In reality of course his allegiance is to England, not the UK, which makes the irony even more acute.)

    "that the UK has a common language"

    No wonder the promotion of the Welsh language makes you so angry - it seems English language imperialism is at the heart of your national identity.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    Roma in Hungary are not particularly well-treated, but they are nowhere near as badly treated as they are in Romania, the former Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. Roma are coming to western Europe as much through push as through pull.

    I always wondered why the leaders of Romania and Bulgaria weren't encouraging the UK to take action against incoming migrants. Losing their young people destroys their long-term finances. But now I understand: they want to play down the issue and use it as an opportunity to get rid of their problem populations. And there's #### all the UK can do about it. Can't wait to see this put to Cameron and Miliband on the campaign trail.

    We don't want any more unskilled immigration. How ####ing hard is this for our leaders to understand?!?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "I love the way you find it so awful Farage called Belgium a "non-country", despite that's how you regularly refer to the UK"

    Ahem. That was kind of the point I was making, Soc. If Farage reckons Belgium is a non-country, then the UK most certainly is. (In reality of course his allegiance is to England, not the UK, which makes the irony even more acute.)

    "that the UK has a common language"

    No wonder the promotion of the Welsh language makes you so angry - it seems English language imperialism is at the heart of your national identity.

    You're reduced to making up things now. I love the Brythonic languages: both Cornish and Welsh. But virtually everyone that speaks Welsh also speaks English. Hence there is a common language. Indeed, the British nation has every hallmark of a nation, and is as much a nation as any other one.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I also saw this the other day:

    "For Scots, their predominant identity was Scottish (34%) closely followed by British (31%)"

    Not much in it, if true. Although, the vast majority of Scots have both a Scottish and a British national identity.

    http://www.unlockdemocracy.org.uk/blog/entry/identity-and-constitutional-conventions
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "You're reduced to making up things now"

    Rubbish. I have never seen you angrier than when I defended Welsh language education. In fact you were so furious you essentially informed me that I had no right to continue making the point.

    "Hence there is a common language"

    Have you ever been to Belgium? Blilingualism is scarcely uncommon. The reality is that there are large geographical swathes of the UK where English is not the native language.

    "Indeed, the British nation has every hallmark of a nation"

    Do most nations have a constituent part where the primary identity (as irrefutably demonstrated by poll after poll) is something entirely different?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    "The reality is that there are large geographical swathes of the UK where English is not the native language"

    East London

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    @JK

    Geographical=LOL
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I missed Weaver Vale from today's Labour selections. It seems Julia Tickridge (a Cheshire Cllr) got it.

    Karin Smyth won Bristol South (Primarolo's seat) selection on first preferences beating Amanda Ramsay and Barbara Brown.
    http://karinsmyth.com/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    How would Sir John Major struggle to get a high-powered EU role when Baroness Ashton could?

    1) He can't get a high-powered EU role because Baroness Ashton did get one, and the member states work on Buggin's Turn principles.
    2) The member states wanted someone unimpressive for the foreign policy job, because they didn't want to be told what to do.
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 660
    new thread
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    How would Sir John Major struggle to get a high-powered EU role when Baroness Ashton could?

    1) He can't get a high-powered EU role because Baroness Ashton did get one, and the member states work on Buggin's Turn principles.
    2) The member states wanted someone unimpressive for the foreign policy job, because they didn't want to be told what to do.
    I thought it was her job because Miliband was supposed to get it, but Brown didn't want him to, and it was offered to Mandelson, who turned it down, and Ashton was the best British person Brown could find that was loyal to him.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "You're reduced to making up things now"

    Rubbish. I have never seen you angrier than when I defended Welsh language education. In fact you were so furious you essentially informed me that I had no right to continue making the point.

    "Hence there is a common language"

    Have you ever been to Belgium? Blilingualism is scarcely uncommon. The reality is that there are large geographical swathes of the UK where English is not the native language.

    "Indeed, the British nation has every hallmark of a nation"

    Do most nations have a constituent part where the primary identity (as irrefutably demonstrated by poll after poll) is something entirely different?

    You have a bizarre view of what constitutes fury. My reaction at the time to the Welsh education point was your argument that learning Welsh helped them with learning more useful languages more than spending more time actually learning the other language.

    As for your latter question, I guess it means Texas isn't part of the American nation as so many Texans think of themselves as Texan first, American second. You do say silly things sometimes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    EdmundinTokyo - But he probably would not get it through
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "You have a bizarre view of what constitutes fury."

    OK. If telling someone that they don't have the right to an express a view is not a sign that you were furious, and is instead just your default setting, I'd suggest you might want to reflect on your manners.

    If you can find any polling evidence that Texans regard their primary NATIONAL identity as being Texan in the same way that Scots regard their primary national identity as Scottish, I might be more impressed by that wild assertion.

    "You do say silly things sometimes."

    Go on sticking your head in the sand. All this condescension is going to make your sense of shock, bewilderment and (it seems) loss all the more satisfying next September.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    How about Cable as the next man in Brussels? I think he's too old to really have any aspirations in the UK, he's too awkward to try to place in anything dynamic, and he's too daft to actually make anything of the job.

    Whilst typing this I looked him up on Wikipedia - I'm absolutely amazed that on paper he's a clever man (I knew the Glasgow and BP stuff, but not the Cambridge connection).

    I've not heard any rumours of such an appointment, but having suggested it here, it seems almost a formality!

This discussion has been closed.