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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll suggests that Boris not the magic

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll suggests that Boris not the magic bullet that would win GE2015 for the Tories

@LordAshcroft on mega-poll: "having Boris as leader would not make the things that stop people voting Tory go away"
http://t.co/5LNx7eLJLQ

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    First with insomnia?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    No, have been doing replies to emails from the Far East since 3.30am
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Interesting that Cameron wins Best PM even in a 4 way choice between Cameron, Miliband, Johnson and Clegg - ie with Johnson splitting the vote.

    In a 3 way choice between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg, Cameron would win by miles.

    Amongst LD voters, Miliband is behind Cameron and Johnson!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    All points in one direction:

    Cameron is by far the best bet for the Conservatives and he has a better chance of winning in 2015 than many people think.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 27th June - CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -32
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Off-topic:

    GM was being 'discussed' here last night (although I use the word rather hesitantly). Coincidentally, the latest issue if IEEE Spectrum magazine has an article on GM food, along with several other articles on the present state and future potential of global food:

    http://spectrum.ieee.org/magazine/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited June 2013
    The logic is flawed. David Cameron is viewed as the best Prime Minister by people who already vote Conservative. Boris Johnson appeals to non-Conservative voters. There is no evidence that current Conservative voters would refuse to vote blue if their top choice was replaced. Indeed, more Conservative voters say they would be more likely to vote Conservative if Boris Johnson replaced David Cameron than say they would be less likely to do so (and, indeed, than prefer Boris Johnson to David Cameron as best Prime Minister!).

    As a matter of theory the Conservatives should not choose a leader to please themselves but to tempt others. It worked well for Labour with Tony Blair.

    In practice, the polling is more a reflection of public frivolity.

    Note that one in five Labour voters prefer David Cameron or Boris Johnson over Ed Miliband. Only 1% of Conservative voters prefer Ed Miliband.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited June 2013
    YouGov

    Do you think George Osborne is doing a good
    job or a bad job as Chancellor of the
    Exchequer?
    Good: 25(+3)
    Bad: 52(-2)
    DK: 23(-5)

    Which of these would make the better
    Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    GO; 32(+4)
    EdB: 23(-3)
    DK: 45 (0)

    Who would you most trust to make the right
    decisions about dealing with the government's
    deficit?
    Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
    Labour: 23(-3)
    Neither: 34(0)
    DK: 11(+2)

    Who would you most trust to make the right
    decisions about improving the state of the
    economy?
    Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
    Labour: 25(-3)
    Neither: 31(+1)
    DK: 11(+1)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Picking up on MikeL's point, these figures once again underline the softness of Labour's polling lead. 20% of nominal Labour supporters believe that Cameron or Johnson would be best PM. By contrast, only 1% of Tory voters believe Miliband would be. In these increasingly presidential campaigns, that has to matter.

    Cameron also has a small net 10% lead over Miliband among UKIP, where I suspect Boris is acting as none-of-the-above, though equally, Boris' different political style is likely to appeal to anti-politicians. Given that Boris won't be on the ticket (technically, none will but that's not how people vote), what will the 64% of UKIP-for-Boris voters default to?

    I think Dave can be reasonably happy with these numbers.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited June 2013
    YouGov

    Here are some statements that different people
    make about different political parties. In each
    case, which party do you think it applies to
    most - the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal
    Democrats?

    The kind of society it wants is broadly the kind
    of society I want
    Cons: 26(-1)
    LAB: 25(-2)
    LD: 11(0)
    None: 24(+2)
    DK: 14(0)

    It is led by people of real ability
    Cons: 20(+1)
    LAB: 13(-2)
    LD: 4(0)
    None: 47(+2)
    DK: 16(0)

    Its leaders are prepared to take tough and
    unpopular decisions
    Cons: 45(+2)
    LAB: 9(-2)
    LD: 4(-1)
    None: 26(+1)
    DK: 15(-1)

    It seems to chop and change all the time: you
    can never be quite sure what it stands for
    Cons::22(-2)
    LAB: 25(-2)
    LD: 28(+1)
    None: 9(+2)
    DK: 17(+2)







  • Osborne eats burger and roars ahead of gurning Balls :)


    YouGov

    Which of these would make the better
    Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    GO; 32(+4)
    EdB: 23(-3)
    DK: 45 (0)

    Who would you most trust to make the right
    decisions about dealing with the government's
    deficit?
    Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
    Labour: 23(-3)
    Neither: 34(0)
    DK: 11(+2)

    Who would you most trust to make the right
    decisions about improving the state of the
    economy?
    Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
    Labour: 25(-3)
    Neither: 31(+1)
    DK: 11(+1)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    The logic is flawed. David Cameron is viewed as the best Prime Minister by people who already vote Conservative. Boris Johnson appeals to non-Conservative voters.

    This is my thinking.

    On the face of it, Boris is the answer to the question: "How do the Conservatives win back UKIP voters without alienating centrist swing voters?"

    UKIP voters split 35-15 as more likely to vote Conservative with Boris as leader and the Lib Dem split is also positive: 24-22.

    How else do the Conservatives square that circle?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    antifrank said:

    The logic is flawed. David Cameron is viewed as the best Prime Minister by people who already vote Conservative. Boris Johnson appeals to non-Conservative voters.

    This is my thinking.

    On the face of it, Boris is the answer to the question: "How do the Conservatives win back UKIP voters without alienating centrist swing voters?"

    UKIP voters split 35-15 as more likely to vote Conservative with Boris as leader and the Lib Dem split is also positive: 24-22.

    How else do the Conservatives square that circle?
    They act competently in office, stop alienating core voters, preside over an economic recovery while sticking more-or-less to Plan A and present Labour as a credible threat to prosperity and security.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    antifrank said:

    The logic is flawed. David Cameron is viewed as the best Prime Minister by people who already vote Conservative. Boris Johnson appeals to non-Conservative voters.

    This is my thinking.

    On the face of it, Boris is the answer to the question: "How do the Conservatives win back UKIP voters without alienating centrist swing voters?"

    UKIP voters split 35-15 as more likely to vote Conservative with Boris as leader and the Lib Dem split is also positive: 24-22.

    How else do the Conservatives square that circle?
    They act competently in office, stop alienating core voters, preside over an economic recovery while sticking more-or-less to Plan A and present Labour as a credible threat to prosperity and security.
    Can you honestly see the Tory backbenches finding the composure and patience to see that through?

    If it were to happen I'd suspect the Tory Chief Whip of putting sedatives in the drink at the Commons bar.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    antifrank said:

    The logic is flawed. David Cameron is viewed as the best Prime Minister by people who already vote Conservative. Boris Johnson appeals to non-Conservative voters.

    This is my thinking.

    On the face of it, Boris is the answer to the question: "How do the Conservatives win back UKIP voters without alienating centrist swing voters?"

    UKIP voters split 35-15 as more likely to vote Conservative with Boris as leader and the Lib Dem split is also positive: 24-22.

    How else do the Conservatives square that circle?
    They act competently in office, stop alienating core voters, preside over an economic recovery while sticking more-or-less to Plan A and present Labour as a credible threat to prosperity and security.
    Competence is the key. Financiers figures quoted below show Dave and George in the lead on competence by a good measure.

    If they can avoid a euro fiasco and any more self inflicted wounds like gay marriage then they can win.

    But unfortunately with the Romanian a d Bulgarian arrivals next year (which will be all over the tabloids no matter what is happening on the ground), and the Euro elections, self inflicted wounds are on the cards.

    The figures do confirm that Ed is crap though.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    antifrank said:

    The logic is flawed. David Cameron is viewed as the best Prime Minister by people who already vote Conservative. Boris Johnson appeals to non-Conservative voters.

    This is my thinking.

    On the face of it, Boris is the answer to the question: "How do the Conservatives win back UKIP voters without alienating centrist swing voters?"

    UKIP voters split 35-15 as more likely to vote Conservative with Boris as leader and the Lib Dem split is also positive: 24-22.

    How else do the Conservatives square that circle?
    They act competently in office, stop alienating core voters, preside over an economic recovery while sticking more-or-less to Plan A and present Labour as a credible threat to prosperity and security.
    Can you honestly see the Tory backbenches finding the composure and patience to see that through?

    If it were to happen I'd suspect the Tory Chief Whip of putting sedatives in the drink at the Commons bar.
    Though finding a way for Boris to re-enter the Commons and become Conservative leader in the next couple of years is even less likely - so the Conservatives are following their third most optimal strategy for success, at best.
  • All these leader hypotheticals need to be framed in the realm of 'who else' ?

    I'm sure BoJo ain't perfect but he wouldn't be competing against perfection. For Tory leadership he'd be against May or Hammond or Greening or some such - and he clearly outguns all the Tory opposition by a wide margin. As Tory Leader he'd be up against PM Redward and Chancellor Loretta - of whom he'd make easy mince meat.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    antifrank said:

    The logic is flawed. David Cameron is viewed as the best Prime Minister by people who already vote Conservative. Boris Johnson appeals to non-Conservative voters.

    This is my thinking.

    On the face of it, Boris is the answer to the question: "How do the Conservatives win back UKIP voters without alienating centrist swing voters?"

    UKIP voters split 35-15 as more likely to vote Conservative with Boris as leader and the Lib Dem split is also positive: 24-22.

    How else do the Conservatives square that circle?
    They act competently in office, stop alienating core voters, preside over an economic recovery while sticking more-or-less to Plan A and present Labour as a credible threat to prosperity and security.
    Can you honestly see the Tory backbenches finding the composure and patience to see that through?

    If it were to happen I'd suspect the Tory Chief Whip of putting sedatives in the drink at the Commons bar.
    That rather depends on what the leadership puts forward. I don't expect Peter Bone to change his course but a few MPs at the edge doesn't do much harm providing the leadership's more-or-less in touch with mainstream Conservative opinion as well as reaching out to the centre ground. There is a careful path to be trodden however between standing up to the Lib Dems on the one hand (which will be necessary to pull back Con-UKIP switchers), and not appearing fractious and excessively partisan on the other, which goes down badly with non-aligned and unpolitical voters.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Good news for the government from those YouGov numbers.

    Osborne chosen over Balls in every group (apart from Labour voters)
    The coalition chosen over Labour on the deficit and the economy generally in every group (apart from Labour voters)

    Although there is a big "neither" or "none of the above" contingent as always amongst Lib Dems and Ukip voters.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,701
    One problem for Boris is that, when running for Mayor of London, you are obliged to come out with lots of pro-London, anti-non-London statements. These would be dug out by opponents and used against him.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Millsy said:

    Good news for the government from those YouGov numbers.

    It would be even better news if the commissioning organ published them......but burgers are making better copy.

  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Bottom line is Boris is popular because of who he is and the job he has - if he were let near Number 10 he would instantly lose this appeal.

    He has a far better chance of winning a third term as mayor than ever being PM or even LOTO. He can earn more money as mayor as well.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    tim said:

    Millsy said:

    Good news for the government from those YouGov numbers.

    Osborne chosen over Balls in every group (apart from Labour voters)
    The coalition chosen over Labour on the deficit and the economy generally in every group (apart from Labour voters)

    Although there is a big "neither" or "none of the above" contingent as always amongst Lib Dems and Ukip voters.

    I realise the PB Tories will want to concentrate on Best PM/Best Chancellor, with their incumbency bonus and 45% don't knows, they always do.

    But the closest you have to approval ratings on this are Good Job/Bad Job figures for quarter pound George.

    53% of 2010 Tories think he's doing a good job.
    Among 2010 Lib Dems he's at -43 with one in six thinking he's doing a good job.
    No the important numbers are forced choices - and the blues win most of these. You like approval numbers because they will be worse for incumbents.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    The problem for people who live and work in the Westminster bubble is that what seems good to them rarely is in the eyes of the real world beyond. I like Boris but I don't live in London.

    The further away one travels from London the less appealing the prospect of a Boris PM is to people. Let's just accept its going to be Dave v Ed, Jeffrey/Gideon/George v Ed and somewhere in the background jumping up and down to be seen and heard Nick when it comes to GE2015.

    Interesting that we now know in recent years there has been a single recession, the Gordon, Ed and Ed one and it was far worse than hitherto believed. We have had no recession under the present government.

    Why has our independent, free media buried the official news from the ONS that the "2nd recession" never happened on page 4 or worse.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    At the risk of falling foul of the anecdote police - some of the focus group quotes on Boris:

    “Boris was the one smoking behind the bike sheds, Cameron was the one reporting him to the teacher. That’s the impression you get.” Huntingdon

    “He doesn’t present himself as being a stuck-­‐up toff. You don’t have to speak like a cockney to be in touch with people.” Huntingdon

    “I honestly don’t think I have heard him express much in the way of political views.
    He’s more of a personality.” Eastleigh

    “We don’t know what he thinks.
    That’s why some people are drawn to him.” Nuneaton

    “You wouldn’t want him to run the country.
    He’s OK to run London, and all those crazy people” Leeds
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Hate fest?

    Nobody forced Osborne to tweet his burger photo stunt and then lie about it being delivered.
    All self inflicted I'm afraid.
    And Pickles is enjoying it along with everyone else

    I really don't understand why he didn't just say "I asked my colleague to get me some dinner" (which is most likely what happened) and that he had "more important things to worry about than where it was bought from"?

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Hate fest?

    Nobody forced Osborne to tweet his burger photo stunt and then lie about it being delivered.
    All self inflicted I'm afraid.
    And Pickles is enjoying it along with everyone else

    Osborne has a winning sense of humour . Here he salutes Pickles' amusing photo .

    "George Osborne ‏@George_Osborne 15h
    Nice one Eric"

    Labour needs to be able to laugh at itself . It has become humourless and petty .
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    And Pickles is enjoying it along with everyone else

    Not in the Daily Mail he's not:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2350039/Twitter-users-mock-Eric-Pickles-tweeted-picture-healthy-lunch.html

    Classy of Prescott to make fatty jokes......
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Interesting that the non-Clegg LibDems break 27/11/17 Cameron/EdM/Boris [just ignoring Clegg's 47% not readjusting]

    Are these 2010 LibDems or current?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    "Most said that if he were leader, they would be no more or less likely to vote Conservative than they were now, for three main reasons. First, the personality of the leader would not be a good enough reason in itself to vote for a party; policies were more important, and it was not clear how if at all the party’s policies would change if he were in charge. Second, if he were party leader Boris would have to change, in which case he could lose some of his attraction. Third, aside from its (toned down) new leader, the Conservative Party as a whole would look much the same as it does now."
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    When Boris is at an event, there is electricity in the air, adoration. People smile at each other. They are happy.

    At "good evening" everyone is his. For the next 30 minutes he thrills and delights, they would have his babies. Even the women. Everyone would vote for him to do anything. Political allegiances are forgotten.

    And then he finishes and moments later, the euphoria evaporates. Normal life goes on. No impression made other than some witticisms that people struggle to remember.

    Not PM. Ever.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    antifrank said:

    The logic is flawed. David Cameron is viewed as the best Prime Minister by people who already vote Conservative. Boris Johnson appeals to non-Conservative voters.

    This is my thinking.

    On the face of it, Boris is the answer to the question: "How do the Conservatives win back UKIP voters without alienating centrist swing voters?"

    UKIP voters split 35-15 as more likely to vote Conservative with Boris as leader and the Lib Dem split is also positive: 24-22.

    How else do the Conservatives square that circle?
    They act competently in office, stop alienating core voters, preside over an economic recovery while sticking more-or-less to Plan A and present Labour as a credible threat to prosperity and security.
    Looks like it will be:

    Fail, Fail, Fail, Succeed

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742

    At the risk of falling foul of the anecdote police - some of the focus group quotes on Boris:

    “Boris was the one smoking behind the bike sheds, Cameron was the one reporting him to the teacher. That’s the impression you get.” Huntingdon

    And yet the actualité is that Dave was the one caught 'smoking'; perhaps he should make more of that to get down with the kids, waccy baccy much more effective than foamy Guiness.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So yougov suggests GO did a good job.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Financier said:

    YouGov

    Do you think George Osborne is doing a good
    job or a bad job as Chancellor of the
    Exchequer?
    Good: 25(+3)
    Bad: 52(-2)
    DK: 23(-5)

    Which of these would make the better
    Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    GO; 32(+4)
    EdB: 23(-3)
    DK: 45 (0)

    Who would you most trust to make the right
    decisions about dealing with the government's
    deficit?
    Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
    Labour: 23(-3)
    Neither: 34(0)
    DK: 11(+2)

    Who would you most trust to make the right
    decisions about improving the state of the
    economy?
    Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
    Labour: 25(-3)
    Neither: 31(+1)
    DK: 11(+1)

    So people think by over 2:1 that Osborne is doing a bad job yet they still think Balls would be worse.

    Time for Balls to take one for the team - how about by picking up a few more speeding tickets?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    That "there was no double-dip recession" in full:
    And as Faisal Islam pointed out last night the actual figures work out as -0.1%, -0.01%, -0.5% and the middle figure only gets described as 0% due to rounding to one decimal place.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TOPPING said:

    When Boris is at an event, there is electricity in the air, adoration. People smile at each other. They are happy.

    At "good evening" everyone is his. For the next 30 minutes he thrills and delights, they would have his babies. Even the women. Everyone would vote for him to do anything. Political allegiances are forgotten.

    And then he finishes and moments later, the euphoria evaporates. Normal life goes on. No impression made other than some witticisms that people struggle to remember.

    Not PM. Ever.

    He would be an excellent party chairman, on the rubber chicken circuit firing up the troops.

    But the clown prince will not be PM.
  • Morning all,
    Wildly off topic.
    If you have purchased something online. In this case a waterproof mobile phone case which is sold on their website as being compatible with my hand set.
    Upon receiving the item you discover that it is not long or deep enough for the hand set.
    Should the consumer be liable for the postage or any handling charge as the item isn't faulty? Merely misadvertised and missold.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bubble watch.

    Nationwide says house prices rose 1.9% yoy.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    BenM said:

    That "there was no double-dip recession" in full:

    And as Faisal Islam pointed out last night the actual figures work out as -0.1%, -0.01%, -0.5% and the middle figure only gets described as 0% due to rounding to one decimal place.
    straw clutching. The middle figure will get revised upwards again and will become a plus. it is of importance only to politicos. The reality is we are in a period of stagnation and low growth as we try to digest a debt mountain.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    The Chancellor eats a burger and the trivia monkeys go mad, thank heaven it wasn't a tub of caviar.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Hate fest?

    Nobody forced Osborne to tweet his burger photo stunt and then lie about it being delivered.
    All self inflicted I'm afraid.
    And Pickles is enjoying it along with everyone else

    Osborne has a winning sense of humour . Here he salutes Pickles' amusing photo .

    "George Osborne ‏@George_Osborne 15h
    Nice one Eric"

    Labour needs to be able to laugh at itself . It has become humourless and petty .
    Burger/saladtweetgate came across to me as banter between mates .

    I think Eric may have noticed that he is a little overweight, and doesnt strike me as a shrinking violet who cannot take a bit of gentle teasing.

    He is quite capable of a bit of banter himself, and is one of the most competent ministers. He is a substantial asset to the party.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I don't think I can recall a time in politics when it was so boring. If all the media can do is obsess over GO's burger, no wonder people are turned off politics.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 27th June - CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -32

    Good morning all. So UKIP are above the L/Ds again, jumping 3 points. Funny that YouGov found that, after last nights good results from the local by-elections.

    On the Boris matter: The PB Cameroons are frightened of Boris in that if he was PM he might do something brilliant for this country, and if the Cameroons are anything, they hate brilliance, innovation and genius.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    MikeK said:

    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 27th June - CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -32

    Good morning all. So UKIP are above the L/Ds again, jumping 3 points. Funny that YouGov found that, after last nights good results from the local by-elections.

    On the Boris matter: The PB Cameroons are frightened of Boris in that if he was PM he might do something brilliant for this country, and if the Cameroons are anything, they hate brilliance, innovation and genius.

    he might do something brilliant for this country

    really ? such as ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    Financier said:

    YouGov

    Do you think George Osborne is doing a good
    job or a bad job as Chancellor of the
    Exchequer?
    Good: 25(+3)
    Bad: 52(-2)
    DK: 23(-5)

    Which of these would make the better
    Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    GO; 32(+4)
    EdB: 23(-3)
    DK: 45 (0)

    Who would you most trust to make the right
    decisions about dealing with the government's
    deficit?
    Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
    Labour: 23(-3)
    Neither: 34(0)
    DK: 11(+2)

    Who would you most trust to make the right
    decisions about improving the state of the
    economy?
    Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
    Labour: 25(-3)
    Neither: 31(+1)
    DK: 11(+1)

    So people think by over 2:1 that Osborne is doing a bad job yet they still think Balls would be worse.

    Time for Balls to take one for the team - how about by picking up a few more speeding tickets?
    Maybe he could get Mrs Balls to take them for him and we could get rid of both of them?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    MikeK said:


    On the Boris matter: The PB Cameroons are frightened of Boris in that if he was PM he might do something brilliant for this country, and if the Cameroons are anything, they hate brilliance, innovation and genius.

    Is them hating UKIP the exception that proves the rule?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MikeK said:

    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 27th June - CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -32

    Good morning all. So UKIP are above the L/Ds again, jumping 3 points. Funny that YouGov found that, after last nights good results from the local by-elections.

    On the Boris matter: The PB Cameroons are frightened of Boris in that if he was PM he might do something brilliant for this country, and if the Cameroons are anything, they hate brilliance, innovation and genius.

    Mike you are looking at 5-8% come GE15 and 8% feels toppy.

    wrt Boris? Nope - they (the Cameroons) are concerned that people's eyes will be taken off the ball and be distracted by an ultimately vacuous Boris diversion.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Hate fest?

    Nobody forced Osborne to tweet his burger photo stunt and then lie about it being delivered.
    All self inflicted I'm afraid.
    And Pickles is enjoying it along with everyone else

    Absolutely a hate-fest on a piece of tissue-thin trivia.

    Just like the ridiculous issue of Osborne and the train ticket, which you wet yourself over, and which turned out to be a journalist (ahem) exaggerating.

    You repeatedly claim Osborne is hiding when he is not seen (and even when he has a good excuse not to be seen, like being elsewhere). You have also claimed that he takes the glory of good news.

    It is clear that any minor piece of trivia regarding Osborne will be twisted by you into ammunition against him.

    Like him crying at a funeral. Remember that one? ;-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Must agree with the suggestion Boris isn't a panacea for Conservative ills. Whilst very likeable the polling suggests he may not be an electoral asset beyond the south-east, which is very blue anyway, and I doubt that the PCP would be inclined to be led by Boris.

    Mr. Jessop, the crying at a funeral attack on Osborne was absolutely deranged.

    In unrelated news: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/sport-headlines/british-grass-defeats-foreigners-2013062773903
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited June 2013
    F1: P1 and P2 are at 10am and 2pm today. I imagine it might be soggy. I'll definitely be paying attention to the forecasts for qualifying and the race.

    Edited extra bit: just checked the forecasts, which suggest rain today, but not Saturday or Sunday.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2013
    Is Ed Miliband still clinging to office ?

    Rather a sad case really. Politically murdering his brother so publically and then we have a four year spectacle of him consigning the Labour party to another historic defeat.

    And then there's his cheer leaders in the country like poor Nick Palmer watching this slow motion car crash desperating clinging to the odd decent mid term poll and hoping above hope that Ed is not a later day incarnation of Neil Kinnock.

    Reaches for hanky ....
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    On the Osborne burger thing:

    If I'm working late or to an important deadline I think I'd call in something of better quality than Mucky Ds.

    And ok the photo might not have authenticity stamped all over it, but I thought it was a bit of harmless fun really. And Pickles riposte is genuinely funny.

    Good laughs all round. Heaven knows there's enough bad news out there.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    BenM said:

    That "there was no double-dip recession" in full:

    And as Faisal Islam pointed out last night the actual figures work out as -0.1%, -0.01%, -0.5% and the middle figure only gets described as 0% due to rounding to one decimal place.
    straw clutching. The middle figure will get revised upwards again and will become a plus. it is of importance only to politicos. The reality is we are in a period of stagnation and low growth as we try to digest a debt mountain.

    Digest?

    We're still adding to it and for the next course the government wants to switch back to another round or ten of private sector borrowing.

    Britain's Mr Creosote event is yet to happen.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    BenM said:

    That "there was no double-dip recession" in full:

    And as Faisal Islam pointed out last night the actual figures work out as -0.1%, -0.01%, -0.5% and the middle figure only gets described as 0% due to rounding to one decimal place.
    straw clutching. The middle figure will get revised upwards again and will become a plus. it is of importance only to politicos. The reality is we are in a period of stagnation and low growth as we try to digest a debt mountain.
    Digest?

    We're still adding to it and for the next course the government wants to switch back to another round or ten of private sector borrowing.

    Britain's Mr Creosote event is yet to happen.


    "digest" fair comment. On current trends we can't start to digest it until 2018.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    I'm sure the twitter experts might be able to find the exact tweet but the utter dredfulness of Ed Balls brings to mind this prediction from Sally Sillycow:

    ' The chronically moronic Sally Bercow tweeted “Osborne is toast!” and predicted “Ed Balls will be *fantastic* Shad Chancellor :))))” '

    Ed Balls it is to be remembered is yet another of the Oxford PPE alumni.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    tim said:

    @Josias
    Calm yourself.

    Why do you think Osborne tweeted the burger stunt then lied about the delivery?

    He tweeted the burger stunt because everyone tweets everything these days. The narrative was "I'm at my desk and don't leave it even to eat".

    It to a tiny little weeny extent backfired but the abiding image will be a guy in shirtsleeves, working, having food at his desk (as do untold millions of other workers).

    Your usual acuity is here for some reason absent.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited June 2013
    UKIP performances in yesterday's by-elections:

    BASILDON - Billericay East: 29.84%

    DARTFORD - Newtown: 22.71%

    PLYMOUTH - Southway: 26.45%

    RUTLAND - Ketton: 17.47%

    SOUTH TYNESIDE - Cleadon and East Boldon: 26.06%

    SOUTH TYNESIDE - Primrose: 34.64%

    WORCESTERSHIRE - Stourport-on-Severn: 25.97%
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Eric Pickles' tweet is superb.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Andy_JS said:

    UKIP performances in yesterday's by-elections:

    BASILDON - Billericay East: 29.84%

    DARTFORD - Newtown: 22.71%

    PLYMOUTH - Southway: 26.45%

    RUTLAND - Ketton: 17.47%

    SOUTH TYNESIDE - Cleadon and East Boldon: 26.06%

    SOUTH TYNESIDE - Primrose: 34.64%

    WORCESTERSHIRE - Stourport-on-Severn: 25.97%

    Good to see a Lab councillor back in my old ward - Dartford Newtown.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    BenM said:

    On the Osborne burger thing:

    If I'm working late or to an important deadline I think I'd call in something of better quality than Mucky Ds.

    And ok the photo might not have authenticity stamped all over it, but I thought it was a bit of harmless fun really. And Pickles riposte is genuinely funny.

    Good laughs all round. Heaven knows there's enough bad news out there.

    Exactly.

    If two days after a CSR all people are worrying about is his choice of late night snack, I doubt Osborne will be too worried..

    Brave of Prescott to be re-tweeting fatty jokes....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Google Ed Balls ppe and this link presents itself:

    " A Future with PPE - PPE - University of Oxford www.ppe.ox.ac.uk/index.php/a-future-with-ppe

    PPE offers a good preparation for a wide variety of careers, many linked to ... Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper, Ruth Kelly, David Miliband, Ed Miliband, Jacqui Smith ... "

    Is this desperate bunch really meant to be an elite trained for the highest roles in government ?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Is this desperate bunch really meant to be an elite trained for the highest roles in government ?

    The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    tim said:

    @Josias
    Calm yourself.

    Why do you think Osborne tweeted the burger stunt then lied about the delivery?

    I'm perfectly calm, thanks. Just having a nice chat to Mrs J and laughing at your comment. I won't ask what you're doing as you're typing manically at your keyboard 24/7 ...

    If Osborne did not tweet, you would just accuse him of hiding. In your eyes he cannot win: anything he does is open to misinterpretation. Sadly, this means when he does do things wrong, it gets lost in your noise. "Oh, it's just Tim and his Osborne obsession again."

    The fact is, you might as well shut up about anything personal about Osborne (policies are fine): you have shown yourself to be incapable of rational thought when it comes to him.

    Like the crying episode, ffs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    UKIP overall performance in contested by-elections yesterday:

    UKIP votes: 3,705
    Total votes: 13,863
    UKIP percentage: 26.73%

    UKIP overall performance, including Newark & Sherwood where they didn't stand:

    UKIP votes: 3,705
    Total votes: 15,719
    UKIP percentage: 23.57%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    @BenM

    Were you a councillor for the ward?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Google Ed Balls ppe and this link presents itself:

    " A Future with PPE - PPE - University of Oxford www.ppe.ox.ac.uk/index.php/a-future-with-ppe

    PPE offers a good preparation for a wide variety of careers, many linked to ... Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper, Ruth Kelly, David Miliband, Ed Miliband, Jacqui Smith ... "

    Is this desperate bunch really meant to be an elite trained for the highest roles in government ?

    PPE trying to present itself as the UK equivalent of France's Ecole Nationale d'Administration or ENA.

    maybe Oxford should drop the PPE tag and rebrand as ENA M.A. since all they produce is pains in the arse.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Interesting to note the good folk of Rutland having the lowest Kipper vote last night.

    Rutland motto - Multum in Parvo - Much in Little ..... Well they do have Hunky Dinky Dunky as their MP - Oh er Missus !!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Andy_JS said:

    UKIP overall performance in contested by-elections yesterday:

    How did UKIP do in terms of seats?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    @JackW

    It may have been that the Independent candidate took votes that would otherwise have gone to UKIP in Rutland. That would be less likely to happen in a general election.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    looks like Francois needs to get some burgers in. France heading into a deeper recession.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10147219/Tempers-fray-in-France-as-drastic-cuts-loom.html
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Do Macdonalds deliver food orders.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @RichardDodd They do in EC2.

    I believe there are McDonalds elsewhere, but I can't vouch for things outside the Square Mile. In backward suburbs like Westminster, perhaps not.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Benedict Brogan:

    "The dust is settling on the spending review, and it has survived first contact with the IFS: there's no sign of it falling apart so far. Conservative MPs who in the past have been swift to criticise the Chancellor are keeping their counsel. Mr Osborne is setting the terms of the debate even if, as Fraser Nelson says, he doesn't seem to quite realise it yet."
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704


    looks like Francois needs to get some burgers in. France heading into a deeper recession.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10147219/Tempers-fray-in-France-as-drastic-cuts-loom.html

    It's ok... Hollandes got it all under control. Ed said so.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    AF..So if the local Westminster branch don't deliver why does the Cheshire farmer call the Chancellor a liar
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Andy_JS said:

    UKIP overall performance in contested by-elections yesterday:

    How did UKIP do in terms of seats?
    How did the Conservatives do ?

    Held 3, lost 3 wasn't it ?

    And one of the holds was without UKIP opposition.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    @Topping

    Correct in part.
    As I pointed out this tells you how stung Osborne was after the omnishambles that he'd been flouncing in the USA rather than working on his budget.

    The lies about the delivery stem from the fact that he couldn't bring himself to say "It was from Byron, I like those and we were working late so someone went to fetch them"

    The reason he made up the stuff about the delivery is simple, he and the rest of the chums are utterly paranoid about the fact that they all come from the same background, so he brought in the "McDonalds don't deliver" line.

    These fops always make fools of themselves when their circle and elitism are the issue, and they know it, hence the lie.

    The other chum in the room by the way will have been Rupert Harrison, former head boy at Eton.

    Well, I think he was more being economic with the actualité than lying. He stated, correctly, that Mickey D's didn't deliver, although your point is well made that he panicked and didn't answer as you suggest.

    There is nothing to argue with your point about OEs. It beggars belief that they can be so blind as to keep appointing such types. A case where a (non-OE) quota system would be at least expedient.

    So much wrong with the presentation. The content, however, is more or less spot on. And to answer your point about the timing of their infrastructure announcements (2015 vs 2010), I don't think it would have flown in (at least) the capital markets for a new, unproven chancellor in a highly indebted country to come to power announcing huge fiscal expansion.

    Now the markets know he is serious about deficit reduction (ok, "attempted" deficit reduction) so are likely to cut him some slack when he wants to spend a bit.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited June 2013
    @Alanbrooke

    France is in very very deep doodoo. They've been utter lefties for too long and have a deeply entrenched anti-business culture across society. And now that the 'later' part of 'sooner or later' is here, the fact that sooner or later socialism kills your private sector and makes the public sector unaffordable is dawning on them. But decades of this can't be reversed quickly. French GDP will contract for quite a while and the deficit will balloon or riots will decorate the necessary rebalancing. Their social model, economic model and exceptionalist worldview is dead - and the realisation of this will be a new horror for the frogs.

    You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    @another_richard - and UKIP?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Andy_JS said:

    @JackW

    It may have been that the Independent candidate took votes that would otherwise have gone to UKIP in Rutland. That would be less likely to happen in a general election.

    Unless you're on the ground it's difficult to tell the impact of an Independent. The candidate might have been a fervant europhile hoping to twin Ketton with Helsinki and who has dedicated their political life to ever deeper union with Brussels and been keenly against the vulgar overcoats that Farage models.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'd missed that Ireland is back in recession.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Poor old Miliband - put his chips on a Uk perma slump and a French rebound free of the shackles of austerity.

    Really - what does he have to look forward to before May 2015 apart from his photo in a light bulb ?
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    As Rutland considers itself already independent of the rest of England - not much point in UKIP there.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    @Tim

    I suspect that policy would lose the party more votes than it wins, and wouldn't help it win any seats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    @JackW

    I'll check on the candidate a bit later but it would be very surprising if they were a fervent europhile in a place like Rutland.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    I'd missed that Ireland is back in recession.

    They are eating the wrong type of burgers ..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    antifrank said:

    I'd missed that Ireland is back in recession.

    It looks like a mixed bag - employment up, exports down - so tough, but far from basket case:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23083003

    I'd far sooner be Irish than Spanish or Italian!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: interesting comment on the BBC F1 practice live page (they start the text about an hour before each practice session):

    "As fascinating as the news itself was how Webber communicated it. The Australian had flown to Austria on Wednesday to inform Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz in person but did not tell team boss Christian Horner until about 10 minutes before the announcement was due to be made - about the time BBC Sport was breaking the story. There were a lot of people wondering why Webber left it so late to tell Horner - Webber said he 'informed Christian before the announcement, which contractually I should do' - to which no answer was forthcoming. But more interesting than that is why did Mateschitz - who had been kept in the loop by Webber on his thinking for the past few months - not tell him either?"
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    This part of Ashcroft's analysis seemed to me particularly perceptive (and is why I'm anti-Boris to a much greater degree than I'm anti-Cameron):

    The overlap between UKIP-inclined voters and those who most strongly back the
    idea of Boris as Prime Minister is surely no coincidence. The fact that Boris
    has been among the most outspoken supporters of immigration and gay marriage
    shows that this is nothing whatsoever to do with policy. Instead it shows that
    people’s stated desire to see him in Number 10 says less about Boris himself
    than it says about them, and crucially their own view of politics and political
    leadership.

    Those for whom politics is the hard grind of sorting out difficult problems most
    value competence and statesmanship and want to be able to picture their leaders
    in the company of Obama and Merkel. (That is not to say Boris lacks these
    qualities, rather that they are not the things they most closely associate with
    him). Existing Conservative supporters largely fall into this group; they have
    after all signed up to the drudgery of deficit reduction. This helps explain
    why, adore Boris though they do, they much prefer the idea of Cameron as Prime
    Minister, and fewer of them than average think the party would be more likely to
    win an election with Boris as leader.

    The idea of Prime Minister Boris appeals most to those who have the most jaded
    view of what politics can achieve for the country and themselves. Though they
    often think Boris is cleverer and more competent than he is sometimes given
    credit for, this is beside the point. It is the antithesis of the idea that
    serious times call for serious people; rather, in an age when our problems seem
    beyond the capacity of governments to solve, we might as well have a leader who
    cheers us all up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    O/T:

    The Laura Robson unofficial fan page:

    http://www.laura-robson.net/
  • ... throw in the fact that Europe's two worst capitalised banks are French just as a huge bear market in government bonds is getting started:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/lhorreur-goldman-finds-europes-two-worst-capitalized-banks-france

    ...and France is looking more like the one that might break the Euro's back than even Spain or Italy. If a 'core' EZ 'big boy' is that deeply screwed I can't see how the Krauts will hold it all together...

    (especially if you take a look at Germany's nightmarish Japanese style demographics)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tim said:

    Another Tory talks sense.
    First Boris on the idiot migration pledge now this

    @michaelsavage: Cameron loyalist says an amnesty for illegal immigrants may be the way for Tories to win over ethnic minority voters: http://t.co/lccvQj3EMH

    Sooner or later, even a Tory would realise that people of working age pay taxes and people over 65 usually get benefits even if earned.

    The number of pensioners is on the rise, so we need more people to work and pay taxes. Simple.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633



    It is the antithesis of the idea that
    serious times call for serious people; rather, in an age when our problems seem
    beyond the capacity of governments to solve, we might as well have a leader who
    cheers us all up.

    Ed Miliband is totally rooked then..

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349

    I fill in the yougov on-line surveys from time to time - for amusement and for the odd few pence they give me.

    On the voting issues, I find it odd that they don't name-check UKIP. I'm down as a 2010 LibDem voter (which is true) but I thought I'd vote for UKIP once in their survey just to see how easy it was, and I found that it interfered with my chain of thought.

    It's odd but I can see why they could be under-counting the real UKIP vote. And for anyone who's not a committed party supporter (like myself), the NOTA vote is likely to be artificially down.

    Pure anecdote - just like the feeling that some Labour voters have switched to UKIP - but if I were a professional pollster, one that I'd look at.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited June 2013
    Not sure the conclusions here are fair. If you put Boris up against a sitting Tory PM, he is bound to score badly.

    Personally the interesting things here are the relationship between the party supporters and the party leaders. Not great reading for the Reds.

    For example the 24% of Labour voters who favour another party leader for PM is clearly an opportunity. Equally the split of the LibDem voters is also an opportunity for the Blue team.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    antifrank said:

    I'd missed that Ireland is back in recession.

    It looks like a mixed bag - employment up, exports down - so tough, but far from basket case:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23083003

    I'd far sooner be Irish than Spanish or Italian!
    What's going on with Ireland's population, have they got a triumphant net migration pledge or does their history preclude an idiot pledge like Daves?
    Last time I looked Ireland's demographics were better than Italy and Spain but emigration could wreck that for the nth time in their history
    last time I looked about 2% of the population were leaving each year. The young and the educated heading to UK, Oz, US and EU.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not sure the immigration fly is attracting too many bites today tim - you've scared all the big carp types off.

    Any markets on whether Balls will be SCotE at the end of the year ?
This discussion has been closed.