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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft is on the look out for interesting ideas for polls

In a Tweet before the weekend the biggest commissioner of private polling in the UK, Lord Ashcroft, suggested that he was looking out for interesting ideas for political polls.

Read the full story here

CarlottaVance

First!

CarlottaVance

Agree on i) Your suggested topic and ii) Lord Ashcroft's contribution - would that it were more valued in certain quarters....

edmundintokyo

FPT, since it's relevant to this one:

another_richard said:

edmundintokyo said:

edmundintokyo said:

It would be interesting to go through the list of Labour target seats and see what happens when you give them half the 2010 LibDem vote. I wonder if you wouldn't find that a fair few of Labour's most winnable seats were actually seats that the Tories won in 2005, not 2010.

Take that back, I just tried it. It turns out that if you give Labour half the LibDem vote, you get a total of 57 Lab gains from Con, but all except 4 were seats Con gained in 2010. Here's my list of notional Labour majorities in seats currently held by Con, assuming half the 2010 LibDems just realigned:

Warrington South 10.925
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 9.715
Northampton North 9.16
Lancaster and Fleetwood 8.785
Cardiff North 8.75
Brentford and Isleworth 8.185
Watford 7.96
Lincoln 7.8
Broxtowe 7.705
Hove 7.53
Weaver Vale 7.065
Pudsey 7.035
Sherwood 7.01
Bedford 6.93
Stockton South 6.895
Wolverhampton South West 6.285
Amber Valley 6.06
Hendon 5.95
Ealing Central and Acton 5.935
Brighton Kemptown 5.895
Carlisle 5.76
Warwickshire North 5.69
Dewsbury 5.65
Stroud 5.485
Waveney 5.16
Thurrock 5.15
Gloucester 4.86
Morecambe and Lunesdale 4.855
Ipswich 4.685
Chester, City of 4.025
Hastings and Rye 3.855
Corby 3.72
Bristol North West 3.705
Worcester 3.635
Colne Valley 3.53
Bury North 3.51
Erewash 3.505
Kingswood 3.315
Nuneaton 3.025
Halesowen and Rowley Regis 2.805
Enfield North 2.265
Wirral West 2.23
Pendle 2.135
Loughborough 2.075
Warwick and Leamington 1.985
High Peak 1.63
Somerset North East 1.565
Cannock Chase 1.475
Blackpool North and Cleveleys 1.36
Swindon South 1.295
Keighley 1.24
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and 0.755
Croydon Central 0.615
Stevenage 0.31
Calder Valley 0.17
Elmet and Rothwell 0.065
Harrow East 0.045

another_richard said:

So half the 2010 LibDem vote are actually Labour supporters who somehow failed to vote Labour in 2010 in Labour marginal seats ?

No, they're left-leaning people who thought the LibDems were also left-leaning, and don't think that any more. There's no particular requirement that they've been Labour supporters in the past.

another_richard said:

And yet we're repeatedly told that the most potent force in British elections is anti-Conservative tactical voting.

These two theories are mutually exclusive.

Well, tactical voting is certainly not being done as well as it could be, and it was particularly ineffective in Lab/Con marginals after the Cleggasm, because it looked like Labour were going down and the LibDems were going up, but it was impossible for the voters to gauge how far down and how far up. This won't be true next time, because the movement will be in the other direction, and the LibDems will be more focused on defending their incumbents.

another_richard said:

Now there is an element of leftists who voted LibDem in 2010 but who would vote Labour in 2015.

But I doubt its anywhere near half and it will be concentrated in various urban and university constituencies.

What you need to do is calculate the increase in the LibDem vote between 2001 and 2010 to see what the potential for Labour gaining votes from 2010 LibDems is.

Which shows that in the likes of Warwickshire North, Hendon and Thurrock the LibDem vote increased by less than 1% ie the LibDem vote in these areas is core and very unlike to change much either way.

While in the likes of Manchester Withington, Hornsey and Sheffield Central it increased by over 20% and thus at risk of an equally rapid fall.

As I say there's no requirement that these people be former Labour voters. A lot of them will never have voted Labour, especially the younger ones. So the best way to figure this out is to call them up and ask them. And to the extent that this has been done, they're saying they're going to vote Labour, and they're saying that very consistently, regardless of the various ups and downs of the news cycles.

What may be true is that there are different kinds of LibDems in different parts of the country, and the move that the national pollsters are picking up may not happen everywhere. But as Mike suggests, the best way to find that out would be to poll those constituencies, preferably doing a national poll at the same time by the same methodology to give us a good comparison.

Philip_Thompson

Isn't one problem with polling at this stage is that we don't have a track record on how the Liberal Democrats will swing back come the General Election? You say that their votes aren't holding up but that's traditional in mid-term for them - what's not traditional is for them to be in government though.

In 2010 the LD's got 23% but in 2008 polls (comparable to now and after Nick Clegg elected) every single poll inaccurately underestimated their figures with many showing 15% or less.

Given the systematic errors in the past - Why should we have any faith in these figures now?

Grandiose

I see on the last thread that ICM's Wisdom Index has a larger landslide than '97. I'm not sure that those being asked necessarily realised that was what they were predicting - particularly since it implies that some people predicted an even larger win.

Grandiose

Philip_Thompson said:

Isn't one problem with polling at this stage is that we don't have a track record on how the Liberal Democrats will swing back come the General Election? You say that their votes aren't holding up but that's traditional in mid-term for them - what's not traditional is for them to be in government though.

In 2010 the LD's got 23% but in 2008 polls (comparable to now and after Nick Clegg elected) every single poll inaccurately underestimated their figures with many showing 15% or less.

Given the systematic errors in the past - Why should we have any faith in these figures now?

The polls were probably correct as a statement of current opinion, as in, if the election had been held the next day. Adopting them as a prediction of future performance is a different sort of error altogether.

MikeK

FPT
Illusion and Reality.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/352393/illusion-and-reality-mark-steyn
Funny how these bleeding hearted liberals, of all persuasions, end up getting knifed by the very causes they espouse.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Very dramatic race today. Naturally, the post-race piece is rife with spoilers, for those who haven't seen it yet: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/great-britain-post-race-analysis.html

AlastairMeeks

It would be instructive to have some polling on why non-voters and potential non-voters don't or might not vote.

Morris_Dancer

F1: Toto Wolff sounds almost exactly like Arnold Schwarznegger.

CarlottaVance

The Indy does a list of the 'Top 10 PMs we never had':

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-top-ten-best-prime-ministers-we-never-had-8675379.html

I've got to say, in at least 7 cases, I'm glad...the majority weren't up to it....

Healey, Castle & Chamberlain might have been....

AlastairMeeks

Meanwhile, because we don't seem to have talked about the EU enough recently, it's time to celebrate Croatia's entry to the EU tonight. To do so, we should look ahead to the next batch of countries in accession talks:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616

The Economist exhorts us to stick with the program (the url sums up the article):

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21580145-after-croatias-accession-europe-should-be-ready-admit-more-new-members-keeping-up

I'm sure that we can all agree that it would be a really good idea to aspire to include Turkey, Albania and Ukraine in the EU in due course, can't we?

edmundintokyo

I like Mike's suggestion, but I'd like to see some placebo polling to give us a null hypothesis to evaluate other polling questions, like PPP did with their made-up Panetta-Burns deficit reduction plan.

Does the government spend too much or too little on HSRD benefits?
Should the Minister for Social Affairs resign over the Dimplethorpe Affair?
Have you taken part in the boycott of Cafedilla Coffee in protest at tax avoidance?
Do you support a referendum on the Treaty of Valencia?

Theuniondivvie

An alternative view, albeit anecdotal, of betting on the Independence referendum. It certainly accords more with my experience of bookmakers, though in my case that's more about getting knocked back for £50 with Victor rather than trying to get a six figure sum on with Hills.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-sure-thing/

5/6 overs & unders for Yes at 37% looks interesting with Lads.

Millsy

Yeah any Con-Lab marginals are going to be important. The Conservatives "only" have to hold on to enough of these to end up with more seats than Labour and Cameron will cling on to Downing Street.

The economy will be important here, and how many Kippers vote Tory, how many Lib Dems vote Labour or Tory (don't forget the blues are currently picking up a few LD10 voters as well).

CarlottaVance

The Observer boo-boo over their hastily changed front page gets funnier:

"It looks like The Guardian/Observer has managed to get itself mightily stung over a revelation about PRISM and the NSA. Which is all very amusing given the paper’s part in the Glenn Greenwald/Edward Snowden revelations. But what turns it into an absolute joy is that, while the news originally came from someone with, hmm, rather “out there” views, the actual information itself seems to be roughly true. And yet they’ve still taken the piece down."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/06/30/the-absolute-joy-of-the-guardians-sting-over-prism-and-the-nsa/

Wayne Madsen tweets: "I provided The Observer with two declassified NSA documents re: NSA Third Parties and SIGINT sharing. The story isn't about my past articles"

Carola

I posted that tweet on PB at the time - I thought loads of folk would pile in.

I'd like a question along the lines of 'do you lack confidence in the lot of them and expect to be dragging your leaden heart into the voting booth in 2015 from a sense of duty... all the while knowing that you're pinning a tail on a donkey' rather than 'don't know'.

Blofelds_Cat

Is there any validated polling that can pick up issues that would be most likely to influence the "Don't knows"?
Like a series of questions along the lines of :

I would be more likely to vote Con/Lib/Lab if ..... happened.

NickPalmer

Good idea (and so it Edmund's). And yes, Ashcroft deserves an OBE for services to polling. My Ashcroft allergy has long since worn off.

ThomasNashe

CarlottaVance said:

The Indy does a list of the 'Top 10 PMs we never had':

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-top-ten-best-prime-ministers-we-never-had-8675379.html

I've got to say, in at least 7 cases, I'm glad...the majority weren't up to it....

Healey, Castle & Chamberlain might have been....

One or two strange selections there: Hazel Blears, FFS. He does not mention John Smith - and yet I think it's really interesting to speculate about how the course of recent history would have differed had he not died in 1994. He would certainly have become PM, though with a smaller majority I think.

No_Offence_Alan

antifrank said:

It would be instructive to have some polling on why non-voters and potential non-voters don't or might not vote.

But these people probably wouldn't respond to the poll!

foxinsoxuk

antifrank said:

Meanwhile, because we don't seem to have talked about the EU enough recently, it's time to celebrate Croatia's entry to the EU tonight. To do so, we should look ahead to the next batch of countries in accession talks:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616

The Economist exhorts us to stick with the program (the url sums up the article):

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21580145-after-croatias-accession-europe-should-be-ready-admit-more-new-members-keeping-up

I'm sure that we can all agree that it would be a really good idea to aspire to include Turkey, Albania and Ukraine in the EU in due course, can't we?

I would like to see most of these Eurovision countries join the EU. This is only tenable though if the nature of the EU changes a lot. Turkey and Ukraine would not be tenable members in the near future if the CAP remains unchanged (as I recall Labour gave up our rebate for a lick and a promise on this).

There would also have to be real progress to secular multicultural rule in Turkey, and changes in the right of free movement, for a very long time.

It is a matter of time before the remaining Balkans join, but further expansion east than that requires changes both in accession countries and in the nature of the EU; including perhaps a formal division into a Shengan and Eurozone, and a non Shengan, non Eurozone, Including Turkey,Ukraine and UK. A sort of semi-detached bit with more subsidiarity.

Grandiose

I'd like to see polling based on mentioning some choice statements - preferably true - before asking a question like voting intention. So, for example, the number of current cabinet members from Eton/Oxbridge; or the homicide rate falling; or whatever.

HYUFD

In Australia Newspoll just out matches Galaxy, 51-49 to the Coalition (compared with 57-43 last week) from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up six), 43% for the Coalition (down five) and 11% for the Greens (up two). Kevin Rudd holds a 49-35 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, with his personal ratings with both approval and disapproval at 36%. Tony Abbott is down one on approval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 56%.

DavidL

Is anyone else finding it extremely difficult to post today? I had about 10 goes at replying to a comment and have now given up.

Philip_Thompson

Grandiose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Isn't one problem with polling at this stage is that we don't have a track record on how the Liberal Democrats will swing back come the General Election? You say that their votes aren't holding up but that's traditional in mid-term for them - what's not traditional is for them to be in government though.

In 2010 the LD's got 23% but in 2008 polls (comparable to now and after Nick Clegg elected) every single poll inaccurately underestimated their figures with many showing 15% or less.

Given the systematic errors in the past - Why should we have any faith in these figures now?

The polls were probably correct as a statement of current opinion, as in, if the election had been held the next day. Adopting them as a prediction of future performance is a different sort of error altogether.

I don't think it was ever realistic at the time that the Lib-Dems would lose a quarter to half of the vote then and I don't think they will now either. The track record in many previous elections is for the party to be under-estimated in the polls at mid-term ... with the one exception of 2003 for 2005 probably due to the Iraq effect.

Given the historic errors I'd take a pinch of salt with any polling now and I don't see anything being done to address such errors.

malcolmg

Carlotta, FPT, your generous apology accepted. bad as I am I do not tipple of a morning.

Garethofthevale

Really interesting article about a strong performance for the FN in a French byelection (although the article doesn't mention they lost to the UMP in the runoff)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10151286/Frances-triumphant-Joan-of-Arc-vows-to-bring-back-franc-and-destroy-euro.html

Next year's Euro elections look set to be very interesting.

HYUFD

Garethofthe vale - Were FN and UKIP to win the French and UK Euro elections that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons

Garethofthevale

HYUFD said:

Garethofthe vale - Were FN and UKIP to win the French and UK Euro elections that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons

Last Euro elections FN got 6% and 3 seats so for them to win in France would be a big shock (but not completely out of the question considering the ongoing Euromalaise)

HYUFD

Garethofthevale - But last Euro elections the UMP were in government and the Socialists were the main source of protest votes. Now the Socialists are in government and unpopular and the UMP bitterly divided with Sarkozy facing corruption charges, so where else does a protest vote go than FN? Of course it is unlikely they would actually win but who knows what will happen given current events!

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

Carlotta, FPT, your generous apology accepted. bad as I am I do not tipple of a morning.

;-)

AlastairMeeks

When I was in Stansted airport on Thursday morning, I was astonished to see Wetherspoons more or less full at 7.20am.

MarkSenior

HYUFD said:

Garethofthe vale - Were FN and UKIP to win the French and UK Euro elections that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons

Why ? How will a few more UKIP MEP's with their snouts in the trough make any more impact than the current and previous bunches who have not exactly covered themselves in glory many of them ending up in disgrace and / or other parties . .

CarlottaVance

antifrank said:

When I was in Stansted airport on Thursday morning, I was astonished to see Wetherspoons more or less full at 7.20am.

I remember my first InterRail round Europe, alighting in Munich, bleary eyed after not sleeping on the overnight train from Paris, to be confronted by Germans drinking beer and eating sausages! Tho I fear nowadays they'd be eating a McMuffin....

jayfdee

antifrank said:

When I was in Stansted airport on Thursday morning, I was astonished to see Wetherspoons more or less full at 7.20am.

antifrank said:

When I was in Stansted airport on Thursday morning, I was astonished to see Wetherspoons more or less full at 7.20am.

antifrank said:

When I was in Stansted airport on Thursday morning, I was astonished to see Wetherspoons more or less full at 7.20am.

Try John Lennon airport at 4.00am,they are tucking in to a fair few cans of "Beater",and smoking themselves to an early grave.
Is it me or is hay fever bad at the moment,having my worst attack for years,hence indoors,and on PB.

jayfdee

Apolgies for all the repeat quotes from antifrank,blame it on Hay fever,or pressing the quote button too many times.

MrJones

edmundintokyo said:

FPT, since it's relevant to this one:

another_richard said:

edmundintokyo said:

edmundintokyo said:

It would be interesting to go through the list of Labour target seats and see what happens when you give them half the 2010 LibDem vote. I wonder if you wouldn't find that a fair few of Labour's most winnable seats were actually seats that the Tories won in 2005, not 2010.

Take that back, I just tried it. It turns out that if you give Labour half the LibDem vote, you get a total of 57 Lab gains from Con, but all except 4 were seats Con gained in 2010. Here's my list of notional Labour majorities in seats currently held by Con, assuming half the 2010 LibDems just realigned:

Warrington South 10.925
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 9.715
Northampton North 9.16
Lancaster and Fleetwood 8.785
Cardiff North 8.75
Brentford and Isleworth 8.185
Watford 7.96
Lincoln 7.8
Broxtowe 7.705
Hove 7.53
Weaver Vale 7.065
Pudsey 7.035
Sherwood 7.01
Bedford 6.93
Stockton South 6.895
Wolverhampton South West 6.285
Amber Valley 6.06
Hendon 5.95
Ealing Central and Acton 5.935
Brighton Kemptown 5.895
Carlisle 5.76
Warwickshire North 5.69
Dewsbury 5.65
Stroud 5.485
Waveney 5.16
Thurrock 5.15
Gloucester 4.86
Morecambe and Lunesdale 4.855
Ipswich 4.685
Chester, City of 4.025
Hastings and Rye 3.855
Corby 3.72
Bristol North West 3.705
Worcester 3.635
Colne Valley 3.53
Bury North 3.51
Erewash 3.505
Kingswood 3.315
Nuneaton 3.025
Halesowen and Rowley Regis 2.805
Enfield North 2.265
Wirral West 2.23
Pendle 2.135
Loughborough 2.075
Warwick and Leamington 1.985
High Peak 1.63
Somerset North East 1.565
Cannock Chase 1.475
Blackpool North and Cleveleys 1.36
Swindon South 1.295
Keighley 1.24
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and 0.755
Croydon Central 0.615
Stevenage 0.31
Calder Valley 0.17
Elmet and Rothwell 0.065
Harrow East 0.045

another_richard said:

So half the 2010 LibDem vote are actually Labour supporters who somehow failed to vote Labour in 2010 in Labour marginal seats ?

No, they're left-leaning people who thought the LibDems were also left-leaning, and don't think that any more. There's no particular requirement that they've been Labour supporters in the past.

another_richard said:

And yet we're repeatedly told that the most potent force in British elections is anti-Conservative tactical voting.

These two theories are mutually exclusive.

Well, tactical voting is certainly not being done as well as it could be, and it was particularly ineffective in Lab/Con marginals after the Cleggasm, because it looked like Labour were going down and the LibDems were going up, but it was impossible for the voters to gauge how far down and how far up. This won't be true next time, because the movement will be in the other direction, and the LibDems will be more focused on defending their incumbents.

another_richard said:

Now there is an element of leftists who voted LibDem in 2010 but who would vote Labour in 2015.

But I doubt its anywhere near half and it will be concentrated in various urban and university constituencies.

What you need to do is calculate the increase in the LibDem vote between 2001 and 2010 to see what the potential for Labour gaining votes from 2010 LibDems is.

Which shows that in the likes of Warwickshire North, Hendon and Thurrock the LibDem vote increased by less than 1% ie the LibDem vote in these areas is core and very unlike to change much either way.

While in the likes of Manchester Withington, Hornsey and Sheffield Central it increased by over 20% and thus at risk of an equally rapid fall.

As I say there's no requirement that these people be former Labour voters. A lot of them will never have voted Labour, especially the younger ones. So the best way to figure this out is to call them up and ask them. And to the extent that this has been done, they're saying they're going to vote Labour, and they're saying that very consistently, regardless of the various ups and downs of the news cycles.

What may be true is that there are different kinds of LibDems in different parts of the country, and the move that the national pollsters are picking up may not happen everywhere. But as Mike suggests, the best way to find that out would be to poll those constituencies, preferably doing a national poll at the same time by the same methodology to give us a good comparison.

I think this is definitely the case. My (possibly wrong) way of guessing if an area has a lot of UKIP potential in the Thursday by-elections is if a large chunk of the drop in LD support since 2010 hasn't gone to Labour/Greens.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

O/T
John McCain seems to have divorced himself from reality if he thinks that the US has the power to do anything.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/308615-mccain-schumer-urge-strong-response-to-nations-offering-snowden-asylum

HYUFD

Mark Senior - Because it would mean France and the UK (2/3 of Europe's largest nations) have an anti-EU majority amongst their MPs. With a German eurosceptic party also emerging that would have an impact in terms of votes, budgets etc

fitalass

"Is it me or is hay fever bad at the moment,having my worst attack for years,hence indoors,and on PB."

@jayfdee, I know a few folk who are having a mare with hay fever right now.

MarkSenior

HYUFD said:

Mark Senior - Because it would mean France and the UK (2/3 of Europe's largest nations) have an anti-EU majority amongst their MPs. With a German eurosceptic party also emerging that would have an impact in terms of votes, budgets etc

What emerging German eorosceptic party ? 2% in the latest polls

Plato

OT for PB's TV pundits, I can't recall who on here recommend The Walking Dead to me as a *good* series, but blimey - I must disagree. I tried it as part of my LoveFilm subs.

I haven't had so many giggles in ages - it's so bad, its riveting viewing - though I'm not sure my vital organs will allow me to watch all three series of this nonsense lest I die laughing. I thought Shaun of the Dead was scarier and more convincing plot wise :^ )

If there's ever a zombie apocalypse - I'm siding with the undead if the cast of humans are representative of what's left. It's like Lost meets Survivors with added Eastenders melodrama. How this tosh wasn't cancelled way before now mystifies me, as does the hype around it.

For PBers interested in the range of stuff on LoveFilm - I really wouldn't bother if you're anything other than a casual grazer - its astonishingly limited, old and I can't quite believe that they've got AbFab as one of the few *New Arrivals* - the most recent Dexter is S6 - its now on S8... the range of films is very poor but apparently better than Netflix which is saying something. For £5pm is cheap, but I won't be renewing.

TGOHF

antifrank said:

Meanwhile, because we don't seem to have talked about the EU enough recently, it's time to celebrate Croatia's entry to the EU tonight. To do so, we should look ahead to the next batch of countries in accession talks:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616

The Economist exhorts us to stick with the program (the url sums up the article):

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21580145-after-croatias-accession-europe-should-be-ready-admit-more-new-members-keeping-up

I'm sure that we can all agree that it would be a really good idea to aspire to include Turkey, Albania and Ukraine in the EU in due course, can't we?

Croatia : 5 year long recession, 20% unemployment and 2/3 workers in the public sector - trial run for Scotland joining ?

Seriously - talk about thtowing a drowning man a brick.

foxinsoxuk

Plato said:

OT for PB's TV pundits, I can't recall who on here recommend The Walking Dead to me as a *good* series, but blimey - I must disagree. I tried it as part of my LoveFilm subs.

I haven't had so many giggles in ages - it's so bad, its riveting viewing - though I'm not sure my vital organs will allow me to watch all three series of this nonsense lest I die laughing. I thought Shaun of the Dead was scarier and more convincing plot wise :^ )

If there's ever a zombie apocalypse - I'm siding with the undead if the cast of humans are representative of what's left. It's like Lost meets Survivors with added Eastenders melodrama. How this tosh wasn't cancelled way before now mystifies me, as does the hype around it.

For PBers interested in the range of stuff on LoveFilm - I really wouldn't bother if you're anything other than a casual grazer - its astonishingly limited, old and I can't quite believe that they've got AbFab as one of the few *New Arrivals* - the most recent Dexter is S6 - its now on S8... the range of films is very poor but apparently better than Netflix which is saying something. For £5pm is cheap, but I won't be renewing.

The Returned on Channel 4 at 2100 (4th episode) is excellent.

Very spooky, and a more thoughtful "Lost" type programme. Highly recommended. Great soundtrack too.

Gary

I’d like to ask about education; specifically whether or not people support free schools.

Q) Do you support the idea of “free schools?”
Q) Would you like a free school to open in your area?
Q) Do you know what a free school is?
I think if we could ask about free schools in marginal that have them or will have them it would be interesting to see if they are popular or not really an issue.

Steven_Whaley

antifrank said:

It would be instructive to have some polling on why non-voters and potential non-voters don't or might not vote.

I think an increasing number of us look at the, very obviously, artificially manufactured arguments and debates that the politicians are engaging in and we just walk away shaking our heads.

At best party politics in this country is now nothing more than a spurious tongue-in-cheek game played out by, with a nod and a wink to each other, the rival parties and factions within those parties.

At worst it's the destructive art of creating artificial divisions between different parts of society in order to harvest votes - and more people who see this and walk away from the process then the more extreme and OTT the words of the politicians become.

I used to think it was important to vote and that it mattered who was elected - and I looked down somewhat on people who didn't use their vote. Nothing the politicians say now resonates with me at all because politics is all about the politicians and all for the politicians.

AlastairMeeks

Has anyone mentioned Janan Ganesh's article about how the state might look in 10 years' time?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fa4aad86-de7d-11e2-b990-00144feab7de.html#axzz2XiZ9VF7a

It would make an interesting discussion for a thread. Is this vision broadly correct, and if so what does that mean for narrower party politics?

Plato

foxinsoxuk said:

Plato said:

OT for PB's TV pundits, I can't recall who on here recommend The Walking Dead to me as a *good* series, but blimey - I must disagree. I tried it as part of my LoveFilm subs.

I haven't had so many giggles in ages - it's so bad, its riveting viewing - though I'm not sure my vital organs will allow me to watch all three series of this nonsense lest I die laughing. I thought Shaun of the Dead was scarier and more convincing plot wise :^ )

If there's ever a zombie apocalypse - I'm siding with the undead if the cast of humans are representative of what's left. It's like Lost meets Survivors with added Eastenders melodrama. How this tosh wasn't cancelled way before now mystifies me, as does the hype around it.

For PBers interested in the range of stuff on LoveFilm - I really wouldn't bother if you're anything other than a casual grazer - its astonishingly limited, old and I can't quite believe that they've got AbFab as one of the few *New Arrivals* - the most recent Dexter is S6 - its now on S8... the range of films is very poor but apparently better than Netflix which is saying something. For £5pm is cheap, but I won't be renewing.

The Returned on Channel 4 at 2100 (4th episode) is excellent.

Very spooky, and a more thoughtful "Lost" type programme. Highly recommended. Great soundtrack too.

Thanks - will give it a shot - I don't wander over to C4 very often.

Tykejohnno

tim • Posts: 4,999 = celebration time ;-) come on tim,we are waiting.

HenryGManson

In tomorrow's Wimbledon I'm backing Ivan DODIG to push David Ferrer close. I think he has a good chance of winning and the 9/4 match win was a tempter, but I'm preferring the handicap bet. DODIG+4.5 game with Hills and Stan James is 11/10 and that's worth grabbing. DODIG is a strong server which means any sets he does lose will be tight run affairs. A 7/6 6/4 4/6 6/4 Ferrer win would still be enough to land the handicap bet, so that's my choice. I wasn't impressed with Ferrer in his last match. Far too many double faults and unforced errors. Happy to take him on but still respect his match play experience.

In the other selections Alamagro lost but VERDASCO won in straight sets. My 250/1 each way shot is now as short as 50/1 but is still 100/1 with Bet Fred and Victor Chandler. Standing in his way in the next round is a Frenchman called Kenny De Schepper. De Schepper dispatched Juan Monaco in straight sets in the last round and has a tidy serve, but I fancy Fernando VERDCASO to come through the tie with greater variety and power at his disposal and keep the interest alive.

foxinsoxuk

Tykejohnno said:

tim • Posts: 4,999 = celebration time ;-) come on tim,we are waiting.

Will it be Fops, or Date nights?

Which of tims obsessions will out for the landmark 5000 posts?

richardDodd

Maybe tim can regale us about his time as a Cheshire Farmer..

MrJones

Farage and doctors

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/general-news/farage-attack-on-doctors-born-abroad-1-5809506#.Uc_vwmhI_UQ.twitter

one thing on that is i've known quite a few people with regional accents who when they get a bit deaf can't understand what people are saying unless they have the same regional accent or an RP accent.

Andy_JS

I was thinking of adding the LD vote and share to my Labour target list. In fact I was going to do it in the first place but decided against.

With Luke Pollard being selected for Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Labour have now chosen candidates in 11 of their top 20 target seats:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0

Of the remaining nine, four are coming up in the near future:

Hendon: 7th July
Sherwood: mid-July
Broxtowe: 3rd August
Brighton Pavilion: 7th July

rodwarner

OT (I hope - previous post just got lost on trying to sign in)
My constituency falls into this area. In God's Little Acre (Lougborough), LD's had 18%in the last election when Nicky Morgan took the seat from Labour for the Cons on a 5 point something swing. The lowest they have polled in recent years was in the 1997 landslide when Labour retook the seat - 11%. So there has been a steady level of support between 15-18% over the last few elections. Will they leak to Labour next time? Could be very interesting... the Loughborough seat has had a succession of incumbents since 1931 (1918-31 it pingponged every election between Liberals/National Liberals/Conservative/Labour). Although the seat was split in 1997 (I think) when Stephen Dorrell (Con) decamped to the new Charnwood seat where he has been ensconced ever since. La Morgan has kept up a high profile locally and outgunned the CLP last time round. But UKIP have had a steady presence for several elections bouncing on just under 1000 (from memory, again). The 'I'm Walking Backwards to Attlee' people have been noisy recently in Leicester and I know some of them who live locally (waiting on being unfriended from Facebook in a purge very soon for unkind comments about poor old Ken Loach). If they decide to launch a local ageing ex trot or equivalent, could be worth a couple of hundred votes or so. Throw in the BNP who have some small traction, if they stand - next time round is going to be very interesting. Too far out to predict - but I think Morgan might squeak it, on incumbent factor and local issues. Going to be fun, whatever...

richardDodd

203499 pounds spent over four years to remove the idiot emblem..it takes six visits to the hospital to remove the tattoo, how many cleft palates would that pay for, how many traineee nurses..how many ambulance call outs...still if 200 grand is peanuts to the NHS why should anyone bother about it.. and yes, you are a moron.

NickPalmer

Steven_Whaley said:

I used to think it was important to vote and that it mattered who was elected - and I looked down somewhat on people who didn't use their vote. Nothing the politicians say now resonates with me at all because politics is all about the politicians and all for the politicians.

Interesting if depressing insight. There is quite a bit of constructive discussion going on but both the media and PB are mostly about the football team aspect - up with our lot, down with your lot. I think the best place to get intelligent discussion that means something is actually the much-maligned party conference fringe. In my current non-partisan role I've been to all three main parties (and hope to get to UKIP this year), and there have been serious discussions with front benchers in every case where the impression was certainly given of genuine interest.

Because everyone there is more or less on the same side, you don't get much partisan rhetoric at the fringe meetings (you'd feel silly haranguing your own party for an hour about the evils of the others) and the focus switches to "what ought we to be doing differently?"

The snag is that you pretty much have to be either in a party or an NGO to bother to go to a party conference...

Plato

@NickPalmer

"The snag is that you pretty much have to be either in a party or an NGO to bother to go to a party conference..."

Or a lobbyist.

Andy_JS

Quite addictive — guess the location:

http://geoguessr.com/

Y0kel

Off topic, Egypt. A picture saying more than a thousand words.

https://twitter.com/Egyptocracy/status/351390692163063810/photo/1

The media will focus on Cairo but the protests and problems in that country are very widespread.

richardDodd

'it would train one nurse every year" or just cover the cost of some one falling out of love with a rose tattoo, an unintelligible Japanese emblem or a nice ring of nonsense around the upper bicep..or whatever the fools want removed..it should be at their cost, not the taxpayer. and we could train one more much needed nurse..that is why you are a moron

Theuniondivvie

richardDodd said:

203499 pounds spent over four years... how many traineee nurses..

Around 12?

richardDodd

Are the PM and Chancellor still sleeping in dorms..well I never..

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Mr. JS, I think I've played that geographical guessing game. It's bloody hard.

Mr. Y0kel, d'you think there's any prospect of Mursi being toppled?

richardDodd

TUD..According to tim it would onlytrain one nurse a year..proves his point about being a moron I suppose..

Morris_Dancer

Interesting but depressing tweet from Dan Hannan. Apparently Syrian rebels have beheaded a Catholic priest in front of a cheering crowd. Doesn't persuade me that we should set about giving them lots of heavy weapons.

TheScreamingEagles

I'd like to see what helps decides a voter make up their mind on whom to vote for?

Is is mostly, policies or leaders, or their candidate?

TheScreamingEagles

@Morris_Dancer, did you follow my tip to back Rosberg.

I hope Pirelli have their tyre contract renewed, it was a very exciting race.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, surprised you haven't even considered that people's friends and families might play a larger role.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, surprised you haven't even considered that people's friends and families might play a larger role.

That too, and media endorsement.

I'm very dubious people vote based on what newspapers tell them to vote for

Morris_Dancer

Didn't Clegg attract ridicule when he had a three line whip early in his leadership so that his party abstained on the Lisbon Treaty referendum vote (despite it being in the manifesto) because it was a meaningless referendum proposal and a real one (did it appear in the 2010 manifesto) would be on membership?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23117842

richardDodd

not in the least accurate..even allowing for inflation it would come in at about three nurses.Do you have a part time job,apart from the farm and the offie, in the NHS accounting dept

MrJones

Y0kel said:

Off topic, Egypt. A picture saying more than a thousand words.

https://twitter.com/Egyptocracy/status/351390692163063810/photo/1

The media will focus on Cairo but the protests and problems in that country are very widespread.

I wonder if 1848 was like that - a more liberal urban population breaking apart from a more conservative rural population?

isam

To those interested in the Scottish Independence debate/betting, is this website useful?

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/

To those wondering about hayfever, I can confirm it is v bad in Essex this year, especially if you are fool enough to ride a mountain bike through the country parks on a daily basis.. the stinging nettles are feisty this year as well!

AlastairMeeks

Most people don't know why they vote the way that they vote. What they tell you and what actually has led them to vote in a particular way may well be very different things.

TheScreamingEagles

Miliband is taking his cue from loser Kinnock, not winner Blair

The Labour leader is doomed to fail because he offers nothing that raises a nation’s hopes, writes Boris Johnson

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10151620/Miliband-is-taking-his-cue-from-loser-Kinnock-not-winner-Blair.html

Y0kel

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

Mr. JS, I think I've played that geographical guessing game. It's bloody hard.

Mr. Y0kel, d'you think there's any prospect of Mursi being toppled?

Yes but probably only via violence if it did occur. Mursi is in an odd position, not only is he not pleasing a fair slice of the country, he was essentially a front man and some of those powerbrokers behind him aren't enamoured with him now either.

MrJones

SeanT said:

Those Syrian rebels that tim, and Cameron and William Hague want us to arm, beheading a Christian monk:

(warning: extremely distressing)

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ead_1372329728

F*ck it. Let's arm Assad. Let's give him more chemical weapons. There is no dealing to be done with Islamists. You either kill them, or build a massive big wall between us and them. Or both.

Not going to show that on the BBC. I wonder if they'll report it at all?

edit: What i don't get is why they have to do it slowly. There's no reason to do it slowly other than being ****s.

AlastairMeeks

Tomorrow's Telegraph includes Boris-by-numbers:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10151620/Miliband-is-taking-his-cue-from-loser-Kinnock-not-winner-Blair.html

He's hardly extended himself this week.

EDIT I see TSE has got there first.

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

Tomorrow's Telegraph includes Boris-by-numbers:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10151620/Miliband-is-taking-his-cue-from-loser-Kinnock-not-winner-Blair.html

He's hardly extended himself this week.

EDIT I see TSE has got there first.

Plus he's got some inaccurate polling figures in his piece.

1) He's forgotten the Tories had a lead 15 months ago

2) Labour have had smaller leads this year.

Roger

Morris Dancer

"I hope Pirelli have their tyre contract renewed, it was a very exciting race."

These are the tyres they should have used. One I shot earlier


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEfJrZ5IrvU

Morris_Dancer

Cheers for that answer, Mr. Y0kel.

Very depressing state of affairs. Anyway, off for the night.

TheScreamingEagles

I assume this has been posted earlier

Tony Blair more truthful about war than liar Winston Churchill, says Alastair Campbell

Tony Blair was more truthful about war than serial liar Sir Winston Churchill, says Alastair Campbell, the former Number Ten spin doctor.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tony-blair/10151126/Tony-Blair-more-truthful-about-war-than-liar-Winston-Churchill-says-Alastair-Campbell.html

TheScreamingEagles

The problems with Syria is that we let the French rule Syria after World War I, we should have taken control of Syria, they wouldn't have these problems today, if it had been a British Mandate.

foxinsoxuk

TheScreamingEagles said:

The problems with Syria is that we let the French rule Syria after World War I, we should have taken control of Syria, they wouldn't have these problems today, if it had been a British Mandate.

Quite right. the bits we grabbed off the Ottomans in Iraq, palestine and Egypt are pictures of peace and civilisation.

TheScreamingEagles

Dan Hodges Owen Jones writes an Ed is crap piece

What's killing Labour? A thousand failures to oppose the cuts

The party has not so much missed open goals as fled in the opposite direction

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/whats-killing-labour-a-thousand-failures-to-oppose-the-cuts-8680389.html

CarlottaVance

MrJones said:

SeanT said:

Those Syrian rebels that tim, and Cameron and William Hague want us to arm, beheading a Christian monk:

(warning: extremely distressing)

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ead_1372329728

F*ck it. Let's arm Assad. Let's give him more chemical weapons. There is no dealing to be done with Islamists. You either kill them, or build a massive big wall between us and them. Or both.

Not going to show that on the BBC. I wonder if they'll report it at all?

edit: What i don't get is why they have to do it slowly. There's no reason to do it slowly other than being ****s.

Following Dan Hannan's tweet its now in the Telegraph:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100224075/syrian-rebels-behead-a-catholic-priest-before-a-cheering-crowd-wheres-the-msm-reaction/

TheScreamingEagles

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The problems with Syria is that we let the French rule Syria after World War I, we should have taken control of Syria, they wouldn't have these problems today, if it had been a British Mandate.

Quite right. the bits we grabbed off the Ottomans in Iraq, palestine and Egypt are pictures of peace and civilisation.

I still blame the French, we should have been given the whole mandate over the Ottoman empire.

We're very good at this Empire thingy.

HYUFD

Mark Senior - Well Germany has PR for Euro elections, so even if it only won 1/2 MEPs that would still add to the trend

Carola

PM warns MPs pay rise unthinkable:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/351445511968010240/photo/1

Quincel

It's an obvious choice, but can we have some polling on the death penalty for a baseline? Traditionally we only poll just after a shocking story brings it up and makes the case for capital punishment very prominently. Some polling at a random moment would be useful.

Polling about how many people are aware of major policies the government is enacting, and polling about how many people can correctly identify policies on future cuts etc between parties. It ill probably show once again how little most people pay attention, and would mind all us who watch intently that what we think are 'big stories' aren't going to suddenly swing the election.

RobD

tim said:

@benedictbrogan: Tonight's @Telegraph front page: trouble for Dave and Tory referendum Bill http://t.co/zJM9vFEZSN

Private members bill not binding?
Who could've seen that coming.

Hardly a shock, given that you cannot bind a future Parliament.

foxinsoxuk

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The problems with Syria is that we let the French rule Syria after World War I, we should have taken control of Syria, they wouldn't have these problems today, if it had been a British Mandate.

Quite right. the bits we grabbed off the Ottomans in Iraq, palestine and Egypt are pictures of peace and civilisation.

I still blame the French, we should have been given the whole mandate over the Ottoman empire.

We're very good at this Empire thingy.

If the Gallipolli campaign had knoked the Ottomans out of the war, it is likely that we would have a Russian city called Constantinople, and possibly still a tsar on the throne. The Greeks would have kept Smyrna and the Agean sea.

Probably the world would have been a better place.

NickPalmer

Carola said:

PM warns MPs pay rise unthinkable:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/351445511968010240/photo/1

The fine print of his comment there is interesting - it's UNTHINKABLE...well...cough...unless there are changes to MPs' pensions. It's pretty well known that IPSA's recommendation will be to boost pay while nerfing the pension scheme, so is Dave preparing his escape route? Ed has said a Labour government will reverse it if it happens - can see candidates in marginals loving that, MPs in safe seats not so much.

Andy_JS

Rather amusing how The Economist has spent the last 15 years lobbying for Turkey's accession to the EU and now absolutely no-one, including the EU and Turkey, are in favour of it. Apart from The Economist, of course.

GeoffM

RobD said:

Hardly a shock, given that you cannot bind a future Parliament.

Indeed. Despite the faith placed in its permanence the Fixed Parliament Act, for another example, is only a vote away from being history. Apart from a simple vote, the only thing that keeps any Act on the books is the political will and capital needed to change things.

Seems like a very silly DT 'story'.

Andy_JS

The only sensible option is to increase MPs pay to bring it into line with most other countries. Otherwise only rich people will become MPs in the future.

AveryLP

SeanT said:

Those Syrian rebels that tim, and Cameron and William Hague want us to arm, beheading a Christian monk:

(warning: extremely distressing)

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ead_1372329728

F*ck it. Let's arm Assad. Let's give him more chemical weapons. There is no dealing to be done with Islamists. You either kill them, or build a massive big wall between us and them. Or both.

Sean

Can you tell me when the HD version of that video will become available for download from LoveFilm?

isam

On topic, maybe some polling on whether people are bothered about the personal background of the leading politicians?

Privately educated vs State, admitted drug taking, married, for instance?

Has there been a poll asking directly whether people would consider voting tactically to keep out a party?

@tim I thought you had said we should have armed the rebels? I can't go through 5,000 posts to find the quote though! If you say you didn't then fair enough ill take you word for it