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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Declining UKIP support in June sees the CON position improv
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Declining UKIP support in June sees the CON position improve In the Electoral Calculus monthly GE2015 prediction
Each month the Cambridge turned city mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus since the mid 1990s, Martin Baxter, publishes his latest general election projection based on his polling average applied to his Commons seat prediction model.
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LibDems 11% vote = 30 seats,
UKIP 14% vote = 0 seats!
OT - from Cameron In Kazakstan, Tim Shipman tweets: "Cameron gives long answer on what to do about Syria and doesn't mention arming rebels once. That gambit has crashed and burned."
Let's hope so.
Meanwhile still no MSM coverage in UK of Catholic Priest beheading - the Irish Independent does have it:
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/middle-east/shocking-video-shows-priest-and-another-man-being-beheaded-in-syria-29385254.html
Can someone explain to me why, if beef from cattle with TB is safe for schoolchildren to eat, there's been all this badger cull kerfuffle?
1. Animal welfare
2. Economic losses
Nothing to do with food safety.
Best guess (guess not a spoiler) is that Les Revenants some how cause the underlying fissures in human relationships to come into the open. People become their worst selves.
I still think that they could pick up one or two seats. Whether Farage will be one of those who is elected is a different matter.
From today's Daily Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10151145/Summer-is-finally-here-with-heatwave-until-late-July.html
Hurrah!
One of the ways that Baxter has adapted to changing political conditions, in this case the dearth of Westminster VI polls conducted in Scotland, is by (whisper it) basing his Scottish projections on... lord forbid us for we have sinned... Scottish sub-samples of GB-wide opinion polls.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
Martin is a naughty boy.
Has there really only been ONE (!) Westminster VI poll in Scotland since February 2012? We used to have them at least monthly. Can anyone see if Martin has missed some polls from his table?
I very much suspect we're heading for another one with Labour having the most seats. So a minority Labour adminsitration or a coalition with Clegg? Eek! The markets will love that. Not.
It does seem that the returned are self aware, and have their own agendas, mostly to do with not letting people move on from grief.
It is slowmoving and brooding, compared with much hyperactive UK and USA TV, and so much more characterisation and atmosphere as a result.
Do you feel lucky, punk?
"Legislation to enshrine a tax break for married couples in law will be published this year after David Cameron bowed to pressure from Tory MPs.
The Prime Minister revealed yesterday that he will bring forward plans to recognise marriage in the tax system ‘very soon’.
Senior No 10 sources said details of the legislation will be spelt out in the autumn, 18 months earlier than expected.
The move was announced 48 hours before rebel MPs were preparing to back an amendment to the Finance Bill, calling for immediate marriage tax breaks.
Mr Cameron is set to make the policy the centrepiece of his speech to the Conservative Party conference in October, with the details included in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on the economy in November.
That would mean the tax breaks are included in the next Finance Bill that would be enacted early next year. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2352078/Marriage-tax-break-Days-MPs-rebel-PM-pledges-new-law-year.html
And welcome back to Me fromBrazil on the last thread - good to have a balanced view from the spot. Take care of yourself!
I don't watch much TV, but The Walking Dead season 3 has finally arrived on Channel 5 (Saturday, 11pm). Whilst I enjoyed the first episode it was 95% hitting zombies in the face with a machete, and a teensy bit more plot would go down well.
The Last Of Us (PS3 exclusive videogame with the infected as villains [infected = fungal zombies]) it was, it must be said, rather more intense. Different media, but an interesting comparison to make.
"Covered from head to foot in padded protective gear, but with his extremities still dangerously exposed, this Afghan bomb disposal expert took his life in his hands to defuse this suicide bomber's explosive vest.
Security forces captured the would-be martyr before he blew himself up in Jalalabad earlier today, hog-tying the man to stop him detonating the device.
But before the suspected terrorist could be taken in for interrogation, the bomb squad had to be called in for the risky job of disarming the bomb strapped across his chest
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2352009/The-real-Hurt-Locker-Brave-Afghan-soldier-defuses-suicide-vest-terrorist-wearing-it.html#ixzz2Xm3JwMsc
It's about sending a signal that the state is supportive of committed relationships (regardless of gender). It's not the amount that is important, it's the signal.
You're sounding a bit like the bearded LibDem in the corner of the pub saying 'time to get back to the agenda for the garden sub-committee meeting next week'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23064490
It has a coda that shows the benefits of freedom of movement:
"Back on the beach, Maria Dolores is cutting a piece of ham to offer to the couple of scraggy dogs, which are skulking under the picnic table.
One of them, smelling the meat, jumps up quickly, sending a gritty cloud of grey sand onto Jose's feet. He curses irritably and Maria tuts at him reproachfully.
"They are our children's dogs," she explains. "Both our boys have gone to England to find jobs - they are working there as waiters now.
"When I speak to my sons on the phone I can hear they're homesick but of course they can't come back here because there's nothing for them in Spain." "
I'm not sure I trust Ed Balls not to lie to me.
On Baxter's model this gives the tories 31 seats less than Labour got and Labour 55 seats more, an overall difference of 86 seats despite the discrepancy being in Labour's favour by a net 0.6%.
Although this is a large difference it is considerably smaller than the absurd result in the 2005 election where a lead of 2.8% gave Labour a very comfortable majority: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005
Presumably the difference is coming from the reduction in the Lib Dem vote helping the tories in terms of seats with many of the Lib Dem losses falling to them. If that is right then returnees from Labour to the Lib Dems will not be an unmixed blessing for the tories.
You can imagine the prosperous economies (let's say Germany, Netherlands, Scandi and the UK) getting the bulk of the total immigration, but does language mean that UK gets a disproportionate share of this?
Might that, in part, account for different views?
Ever the tricky and slippery one, Cammo following Nixons stunts:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10151655/EU-referendum-law-hits-trouble.html
Only UKIP will give an in/out referendum on the EU, without the if's and but's.
OGH, for instance, believes that the LD voters in LD/Con marginals in the SE are really anti-Tory and will return to the LD, while in the Northern LD/Lab seats they will vote Labour.
I'm not convinced, but how this splits will have a massive impact on the result
Release Time - 0900hrs BST 01 July 13
I find the range of recommendations really interesting - and I've watched shows that I'd never have considered/heard of as a result. If it adds a handful of posts to a thread every once in a while - what's the big deal?
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/great-britain-post-race-analysis.html
I'll put up the early discussion thread for Germany tomorrow.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23120455
Baxter is suggesting not but I am not sure on what basis.
Graduate vacancies at Britain's "top" employers are at their highest since 2008, new research suggests.
Britain's 100 "leading employers" have 4.6% more jobs for new graduates than in 2012, High Fliers Research said. But its study of the 2013 graduate market said there wer still an average 46 applicants for each position.
Last month the Higher Education Statistics Agency said it believed 10% of UK students remained unemployed six months after graduating in 2012.
The latest study suggests that the rise in vacancies for graduates is higher than expected. Earlier this year, the same group of employers predicted that graduate vacancies would increase by 2.7%.
The data is based on responses from the 100 organisations which a poll of 18,000 final year students at 30 selected universities identified as offering the best career opportunities...
Changes in graduate job vacancies
2007-8 Down 6.7%
2008-9 Down 17.8%
2009-10 Up 12.6%
2010-11 Up 2.8%
2011-12 Down 0.9%
2012-13 Up 4.6%
The "if" is a mighty if Ukip get a few hundred MP's or so
And the "but" is but the electorate haven't completely lost its collective marbles yet !!
"Nick Clegg, starting a new schedule of monthly press conferences on Monday, will step up his efforts to win back former Liberal Democrats who have defected to Labour.
Referring to Labour's recent decision to take government spending plans for 2015-16 as its starting point, Clegg will claim that Labour "has gone from taking no position on the economy to every position".
He is hopeful that after three years of Labour criticism over accepting Tory austerity, he can now go on the front foot and win back his disilusioned former supporters."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/30/labour-falkirk-union-row-kim-howells
On topic, in 2015, if the Lib Dems get a bunch of seats on a % share of two thirds or less of the UKIP share, who then get none, expect the immediate collapse of FPTP. Especially after the result of next years Euros where the Lib Dems will be trounced by everybody, and probably not get a third of the votes of UKIP. The demands for PR at Generals will be deafening. The Mail, Telegraph and other right wing outlets will be exploding with furious anger!!! (Readerships will be going nuts!)
I think the notably more skeptical view of the EU that we have in the UK is merely a reflection of our history. We have been physically separated from continental Europe for a long time, safe in our island and ruler of the waves.
Europe's historical strength lies in its chronic disunity. Anytime one king or country became oppressive its people could just move - and the constant competition forced all Europe to stay up with market and technological developments. Internal competition between cultures within Europe enabled Europe to outcompete the rest of the world for centuries.
But whenever one European country tried to get to big for its boots and stage a takeover the others would resist. Thre was always a Westphalian balance of power and our role was rightly described as 'the balancer of the balance'. Every would-be European emperor has failed as a result of us leading the anti gang - from Spain and the Armada, through Napoleon to WW2. We like them competing evenly as it suits our national interest and gives us a pivotal role in the power plays of Europe.
It never ever has been and never ever will be in the UK's interest to see a hegemonic power arise in continental Europe. I think we know this deep in our waters. We have a long and deep seated cultural aversion to it.
Knowing you can resign before 30yrs and get everything to date, or after 30yrs and the whole lot regardless of what you may be ducking charge wise is very contentious. To lose the whole thing seems to me very punitive and unfair.
Officers are fined a few days worth of pay if they screw up which often seems incredibly lenient, they are rarely sacked or sanctioned by the IPCC - its a dog's breakfast that needs sensible reform, not revenge by injured parties grabbing the headlines.
BTW I was in Berkhamsted recently and a gift shop was selling a pleasant range of pussy mugs. I thought of you.
That said, the current tyre clearly isn't good enough. It may be that the particular kerbs of Silverstone were involved, so that may not be an issue elsewhere. The next race is the coming weekend (Germany), so there's not much time to change things.
yeah, but, no, but, maybe...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BEfJrZ5IrvU
I wonder if this is the same group of MPs angling for a 15 per cent payrise for, erm, oh yes: MPs. We're all in it together.
Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :
Con 296 .. Lab 270 .. LibDem 44 .. SNP 12 .. PC 3 .. Ukip 3 .. NI 18 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1
No Overall Control - Conservatives 30 seats short of a majority.
I'm not after iron discipline - just a speck of consistency!
Mr. W, just pick your own figs. What could possibly go wrong?
Careful my lovelies discussing hair topics on PB is fraught with danger !!
But given that he's going to find the money I guess we can take the rest o his austerity nonsense with a pinch of salt. He's waited until the election run up (although we are still more than 2 years out) because [a] the LibDems are opposed - they have a carve out in the coalition agreement and [b] the Tories made other firm commitments such as increasing the personal allowance which have absorbed the money available for tax cuts.
What signal does it send: that marriage is a good thing. Marriage isn't just about procreation, it's also for mutual comfort and support. In the case of the older couple, loneliness is one of the worst challenges that retired people face - being married helps with that (one hopes!)
Frankie Howerd's "Lurcio" is a favourite character .... am I getting confused ?!?! .... Woe, woe and thrice woe !!
The US networks are walking all over us in this dept.
This will be familiar to to the LDs.
UKIP are in favour of ditching FPTP. We voted, albeit unenthusiastically, for AV. But Clegg didn't want our support, and in any event, we agreed with the assessment that it was a 'miserable little compromise'.
a.The Lib Dem position is exactly the same as it has been all parliament.
b.The public finances are in a much worse state than the Tories thought they were going to be.
c.What has loneliness got to do with the state subsidising a particular living arrangement, or do you genuinely think a 60 year old on their third marriage is more in need of financial support and moral buttressing than a couple in their thirties with two kids?
a. Yes. That's why it hasn't been pushed yet - I imagine he sees it as a political dividing line at the election.
b. Yes, but when things are worse you need to prioritise. The Tories chose to prioritise keeping their promises
c. The state subsidises or penalises plenty of things. Smoking has negative externalities - therefore tax it. Marriage has positive externalities - support it. It's not about welfare, it's about signals.
Disagree.
Oops, that's a no-no as well.