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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Night hawks is now open
House Of Lords To Get £100,000 New Toilets. The cost of refurbishing two small toilets at the House of Lords with “historic oak panelling” will be met by taxpayers.
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There will never be democracy in the Arab world until its people understand (a) that one's creed should not be a basis for citizenship, government or law; and (b) the legitimacy of people having different (even radically different) views on matters of public policy - in short the concept of loyal opposition while still being patriots. Habits of thought are needed for democracy not simply elections and parties and the processes attached to those.
It took the West a long time to understand both points and, arguably, we had a better starting point.
Until then all the changes we are seeing are simply different groups vying for, achieving or being thrown out of power - with different degrees of violence.
Indeed, Miss Cyclefree. There's such a thing as tyranny of the majority, as Coptic Christians in Egypt probably know rather well. Just because 51% of people support something does not make it right, if that thing involves oppression of others.
Not the first relationship to end shortly after the guy has troubles with a burst rubber
Nicole Scherzinger and Lewis Hamilton split after five years together
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2352185/Nicole-Scherzinger-Lewis-Hamilton-split-years-together.html#ixzz2XpKile6w
So, in short, until they abandon Islam ?
A housing association in Norfolk helping tenants cope with changes to housing benefits have drawn inspiration from an unlikely source - speed dating.
The Wherry Housing Association is running an event in Norwich to help people swap houses and so avoid the under-occupation penalty.
It hopes to match up tenants looking to downsize or who want a bigger house.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-23124280
The basis of post-enlightenment politics is the seperation of Church and State politically, even if some symbolic aspects are kept.
Theocracy, whether Islamic or otherwise, over-rides individual human rights with the rules of the state religion, which are given more importance.
Interesting to see the Cairo University graduation photos over the years:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_veil_falls_on_cairo/
Similarly an Iraqi friend of mine showed me her medical school graduation album the other day, from the 1980's. The big hair and shoulder pads would have fitted well with the medical school photos of my own year, or TSE's musical obsessions. Her niece cannot go out without a Niqab in Baghdad now, for fear of attack by militias. So sad.
Mrs J can wield a mean knife, and I do not wish to sing castrato.
On Egypt: it is an utter mess. I'm starting to think that a military coup might be the only way to get some sanity back into the country, and that is not a thought that comes easily to me. Whatever happens, there is going to be more bloodshed: it just depends if it is going to be a small or large amount. Too many groups have followers and a will to rule.
(Edit: Cyclefree: thanks for an excellent post)
That mode of thinking is not one which can easily be grafted onto people, especially after a long period of tyrannical or authoritarian rule, especially when there is no historical experience to look back at. Even in Eastern European countries we can see a tendency for governments to treat opponents as somehow illegitimate even for daring to voice criticism.
The Arabs have tried a sort of pan-Arabism, sometimes allied with socialism and Baathism (an offshoot of Fascism) and more or less benevolent monarchies and now Islamist politics seems to have taken centre stage. Nowhere has any sort of real democratic frame of mind developed.
It's as if parts of the region are in the 16thC, some in the 17th, some in Revolutionary France and some possibly in c. 1848, some still in the 7th C and others undergoing the 30 Years War with a dash of Communism / Fascism from the future thrown in.
It is very sad for those suffering there of course and for those who hope / hoped for something better.
Ed Miliband needs to sack Tom Watson > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/qd33c8f
To become a castrati[sp] the male must be castrated prior to adolescence. You shall never have such a beautiful singing voice, or the increased life expectancy.
But what shows no sign of coming is Avery's prediction of when Britain gets the first month of trade surplus.
;-)
I have yet to reach adolescence.
http://www.thepoke.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/969440_570359659670998_1997351894_n.jpg
Spain has basically taken a leaf out of the first Thatcher government, and introduced the most remarkable labour reform laws. It has also (successfully, by and large) encouraged pay cuts in the private sector, and (following Ireland's example) put through public sector wage cuts. (Not freezes, actual cuts.)
And now - despite horrendous, horrible, pain - this is working. Call me a starry-eyed optimist if you like, but I think Spain could be an extraordinary opportunity in the next three to five years.
Not much chance of that happening now, I guess.
As if by magic, one master strategy coming right up.
I saw Blondie a couple of years back, Debbie Harry was struggling a bit with the high notes, and we are in the era where "moves like Jagger" is featured in physiotherapy referrals.
Still I think that one of the best things about PB is that it is possible to engage with someone with an opposing view in a friendly and polite manner (certainly for those of us without Sean T's talent for invective!)
The first of the month is when DECC update their Oil and Gas production stats on the internet. Unfortunately, the figures are released three months in arrears so we only got March 2013 today.
A quick look at the three totals for oil, associated gas and dry gas shows that North Sea output is continuing in rapid decline.
This is surprising as on a couple of occasions in the past three months, BoE officials have mentioned in speeches and interviews that North Sea production has been recovering and underpinning prospects for increased growth,
Well, no real sign of it in Quarter 1, at least on an annual basis. Q3 & Q4 2012 were weak due to unscheduled shutdowns of major fields (mainly Buzzard) which might have boosted Q1 2013 on Q4 2012 growth, but that is not a recovery.
So unless there is a big jump in Q2 2013, then it is difficult to see what the BoE have been going on about.
And until or unless Oil and Gas output recovers there is no short or medium term prospect of the UK recording a monthly Balance of Trade surplus.
I'll update you in three months time when DECC finally get to post the complete Q2 figures!
In the meantime get fracking!
The big problems for off-shore UK are:
(1) the natural decline rates are close to 10%. That is, without new projects, UK oil production drops c. 10% every year as field pressures decline.
(2) our North Sea (unlike the Norwegians) is quite well drilled already.
That doesn't mean there won't be new fields. And it's quite possible that some EOR techniques become economic, and reverse some declines. But it does mean that - absent on-shore shale gas development - we will struggle to see meaningful increases in UK oil production, and are more likely to see declines.
But NP and SO and others are invariably polite and interesting and though I suspect that we don't agree on everything we agree on more than might be imagined.
The only true castrato of which there is an extant recording is Alessandro Moreschi.
Moreschi was born in 1858 and was retained in the Vatican Choir becoming its last surviving castrato at the turn of the 20th century. He died in 1912 at the age of 54.
Here he is singing Preghiera by Tosti in the Sistine Chapel in a February 1902 recording to wax cylinders.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv-S3uoeTXg
Who could have guessed that would happen.
You mean the precise same one Cammie used when he slapped a three line whip on his own MPs back when he was trying to shut them up about a referendum? The one where 81 of his backbenchers told him where to stick his whip and his excuse in the biggest tory rebellion on the EU for decades? That 'argument'?
Nice to see one example of honour in the public service......
Nexen have a big field due to come online in 2014 (Golden Eagle) in addition to Buzzard but there is not much else that is new and big.
Robert, do you have access to any output figures that are more recent than DECC;s PPRS reports?
It would be good if some of the other BBC bods who received monies they were not legally entitled to under their contracts also gave the money back.
Similarly, it would be good if those who caused the global financial crisis paid a little more towards the coffers.
Not to mention those who work / worked for discredited news organisations.
As to shale gas word has it there's plenty of shale gas under Sussex but the best two drilling points are under Glyndebourne and under a certain Richard Nabavi's house - would you be so kind as to break the bad news to our friend ;-)
Con nc
Labour nc
LD minus 3
UKIP plus 1
Is there any sign of Spain picking up new inward investment from foreign business?
One of the signs of the success of the Thatcher reforms was Japanese investment into Britain.
Robert Smithson is due to be called in to validate such claim and to advise on its implications.
Until then the Pagoda is safe.
The publishing bit will retain the News Corp name.
As News International is a subsidiary of NewsCorp then I would guess that, for once in your many posts, you have got lucky by being right!
[Edit: I see RobD is saying the UK subsidiary is now News UK. Rob is probably right as I am only informed on the NewsCorp split]
http://www.georgefreeman.co.uk/
Must say I'm slightly surprised by this poll - no obvious reason for UKIP to bounce back - and had expected Labour lead to rebound the other side of 8.....ah well, as Mrs Butler said "Tomorrow is another day!"
I think one of the things PBers are guilty of is to try to explain essentially sub-MOE movements, when the real explanation is, MOE.
In all seriousness - I think this beautiful area of Sussex would be much more damaged by wind farms (and perhaps by expansion at Gatwick) than oil and gas production, which are relatively innocuous once the initial exploration and production drilling are complete.
I was hopeful it would give a boost to Q4, even if only by giving us a pause in the rate of decline.
However....the longer these lower labour leads continue....
A poll with a MOE of 3% does not mean that a poll showing Tory 40% Labour 30% is just as likely to be 43-27 or 37-33. The distrbution of the true value of the sample isn't distribute across the MOE.
Read about it on Wikipedia
(a) Jake Whatsisname is a petulant child with a personal grudge, and no substance;
(b) No normal Lib Dem or Conservative voter would want to vote for him;
(c) There is no chance that either the Lib Dems or the Conservative Party would stand down in his favour, and their voters would be angry if they did;
(d) No normal person would think he would be a better MP than any Labour MP;
(e) He is very unlikely to stand anyway, because the next general election is a tenth of alifetime away and he will probably grow up a lot before then;
(f) He would only get a few hundred votes, if he stood;
(g) The article selects a few examples of successful Independent Labour MPs, and ignores various other unsuccessful Independent Labour candidates or outgoing MPs - such as Terry Fields, Dave Nellist, Ron Browne, or Insert Name Here.
Anyway, on a similar train of thought, I am getting increasingly cautiously optimistic that Nelson Rolihlahla Treacle Pudding Armadillo "Madiba" Mandela will live long enough to reach the age of 95 (which is in 16 days' time).
Actuarially, you are odds-on to still be here in 12 months time, until you reach the age of around 107...