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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How post BREXIT the bookmakers are looking WH2016
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How post BREXIT the bookmakers are looking WH2016
With three months to go until election day, people all over the world are lining up to place their bets on who’s going to take on the role of the 45th president of the United States after Barak Obama’s two-term presidency.
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There are some posts for TimT on the last thread.
http://dailym.ai/2bEIbpl.
But even if your incomes £50k , if you couldnt meet an unexpected £500 bill then you aint middle class no sireee.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/gers-figures-great-news-scotland-8705226
6th like Japan7th like France
Edited for FFS.
Another strong aftershock in Italy - 4.7
Motorways around Calais 'no go areas' after dark
Throughout, this election has been about who wants to lose it most and I don't see that changing. Clinton - in marked contrast to her husband - is uncharismatic and a poor campaigner. Trump is an unqualified egoist with a strong nasty streak. Both are intensely disliked by a great many voters.
What that means is that the swing Dem/Rep group is probably even smaller than usual (though we shouldn't ignore the swing Dem/abstain, Rep/Abstain, Rep/Lib and Dem/Grn groups). Trump does seem to have recovered lost ground since the Dem convention but there's almost certainly a low ceiling to his support. If Hillary can keep a saftety-first campaign on track, she'll win.
Trump's task is therefore to lower that ceiling further, which is a task he'll no doubt enjoy thoroughly; negative campaigning is what he does best. Still, Hillary's negatives are well known and to a large extent, priced in; it's a different game from taking on Rubio or Cruz.
Trump could win but I don't expect him to and I don't expect him to come close. Apart from the polling history - few elections swing this late in the contest - I think there's a bigger reserve of voters who'd come out to stop Trump than would do so to stop Hillary, if the race looks tight and they have to vote holding their nose. The favourability scores are proof enough there.
As far as I can tell, Trump just has Trump (the Farage piece) and it is hard to see how he forms a winning coalition just off the back of that.
My main worry about this vote is that the UK media are *terrible* at reading the mood and temperature of US elections, and there's almost always a strong undertone of favourability to the Democrats.
Trump is so obviously a pantomime baddy that I worry that sentiment is even stronger than usual.
It's called investing in the future of your country.
It's called taxing me because of your lifestyle choice.
Basically these women are paying to work and the family would be financially better off and have a vastly better quality of life if they were not working.
Ditch Sky (you don't need it - get freeview or Prime for £80 a year instead) ditch the gym membership (go for a run or buy a few weights instead) and shop smarter. A family of four don't need to spend £500 a month on food.
Also..ditch the car finance. It amazes me how much people spend on hire purchase. Get a second hand car.
Their problem is also a lifestyle choice one. Plus £6k on a holiday in Florida? Why?
Looking at the salaries, this is very much the lower middle class trying to live the lifestyles of those on higher professional incomes.
yup i agree. It's hillarys to lose at the moment. I cant see anything trump can do to improve his own likeability, he has said too many terrible things
I am glad no-one begrudges the monthly £20 so the Guinea pig doesn't starve...
At this point, he should be leading or battling neck and neck in Michigan and Wisconsin. Blue collar white males aren’t doing that great these days and those states were the bulwark for Obama in the last two elections. Instead, he’s lagging farther and farther behind there. What’s worse, is that states like Georgia, Arizona and Missouri are now shaky for him. That absolutely should not be happening.
So, Clinton is pulling ahead in Ohio, and has had Florida and Virginia locked down for a while now. I think, really, the big question is whether the Dems take back the Senate.
Can also add sky box office for about £15 a month if I wanted to.
Schools really ought to teach home finances.
If those in their 20s and 30s voted in large numbers, and the retired did not, then that's what we'd have.
State spending patterns follow the votes.
The same is true of these families (and myself when I was a thirty something), when my income rose, so did my lifestyle.
If there really was a crunch then people can cope, and indeed can even enjoy frugality. I see it fairly often when people are forced to work less by medical conditions; which even in the UK put a financial strain on families.
The answer is not financial subsidies for childcare for people on twice national median income. It would only come back to them in higher taxes.
She pays £80 a year for Amazon Prime. When we have the time, families have less, we might watch one of the boxsets.
That said I plan to spend a few grand on a holiday myself, though it is my first in over 10 years.
I wonder whether women are going to vote for Clinton just because she's a she?
Of course, it could be an understandable dislike of Trump, but identity politics is rank and I hope people don't vote based on which candidate has the same set of chromosomes.
My guess would be that Clinton will win and then get slaughtered in 2020.
Betting PostF1: No Safety Car, Ladbrokes, 2.62.
In the last 5 races I think there have been 2 with safety car periods (a VSC occurred last year). Also, the weather forecast has only a very low chance of rain. Always the possibility of a crash but this is somewhat mitigated by the Virtual Safety Car.
If you're serious about the gender pay gap, you can't act surprised at it when women (and it will always generally be women) have to work a 6-hour day rather than an 8-hour day to pick up their little mites.
Paying for a childminder to cover the 3pm-5.30pm gap might make the headline figures look better but the net effect is just the same.
And actually tbeir housing costs are rather modest. When I was 30 I was paying 40% of my income on mortgage at 12%. These families will really know austerity if interest rates went to half that.
Discuss.
"Keeping up with the Joneses" was a running joke as I grew up. Perhaps the advent of social media has increased the pressure to do so.
Schools are there to educate. Taking the kids off the parents hands is an accidental by product.
Also ask any parent or teacher what a primary school kids concentration in late afternoon and you get an answer as to why they are booted out at 3.30
Quite a few are a bit shit as well.
Private schools have a huge advantage here as they teach music, sport, archaeology and fun sciences and all sorts of structured activity rather than babysitting kids watching Ballamory.
Hamilton will be starting from the back, he will be praying for a safety car.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scaring-teenagers-off-pregnancy-with-baby-dolls-has-reverse-effect-gkcsq559t
Apparently in the first controlled study, teenage girls 13-15yrs were twice as likely to get pregnant [8%] after experiencing 'robot virtual baby', compared with 4% control group.
Romney states and Pennsylvania and Ohio to make 244 with Clinton on 265. Florida's 29 puts either over the line.
It's not happening as it stands for the Donald.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ar3xm
2016 Belgian Grand Prix Formula 1
No
Safety car to be deployed during race
Odds: 13/8
1 line at £20.00
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential return: £52.50
Time: 26/08/2016 8:17:53
Receipt No: O/x
Apart from going to the games of course!
So not surprised this type of scaring off may not work.
I went to private school and it was always a full day.
All bar one of those people were in the south east. That inflates their housing costs (mine are a third of that for a comparable house). But I'm likewise flabbergasted by that utility bill. Mine would barely be £1500 a year, never mind a month, and I have to pay South Staffs Water's
extortion moneyrather high rates. Somebody is being taken for a huge ride there.And having watched last night's debate, isn't Jeremy Corbyn rude and aggressive? If that's his idea of a kinder, gentler politics, no wonder he admires the IRA and Hamas.
There's certainly a lot of room for turnout in the US to increase. Could be that like Leave, Trump is ahead already because he's mobilising non-voters, and the polls aren't picking it up. I'm sceptical though, Clinton is enjoying significantly bigger poll leads than Remain had at this stage, so the error would have to be monumental.
It therefore has average class sizes of twelve and stays open until five, while the state schools have average class sizes of 34 and close at 3.10. And all for the small matter of up to forty grand a year...
8:30 - register, house
8:45 - assembly, main hall
9:00 - period 1
10:00 - period 2
11:00 - break
11:30 - period 3 (double session, usually PE or technology class)
13:00 - lunch
14:00 - period 4
15:00 - period 5
16:00 - end
The school library was open until 5pm though so anyone who's parents couldn't pick them up until later would usually just hang around there doing homework for an hour, but most people got the bus home.
The first point will be if Gary Johnson can get an invite - in which case anything could happen as the dynamic of the race is completely changed with three people.
The second will be Trump's performance - if he manages not to offend anyone - big IF there - and continues to call his opponent corrupt and untrustworthy, he might see a polling boost and have the momentum for the final weeks.
I think Trump is the value bet but I'm only betting beer money on this election - there's clearly a lot going on that I don't understand from so far away. The Republican nomination was a much clearer betting opportunity.
On scandals, something might emerge from Hillary's emails, but equally there may be a shock in Trump's tax returns and business dealings, so that is a wash. The known unknowns cancel each other out, at least while they remain unknown.
A presidential election with an electoral college, 3rd party candidates and a much high non-white population is a completely different kettle of fish from a national referendum.
However, the average teaching time would be 5 hours rather than 5.30 as well, so very slightly shorter.
Trump has a lot of passionate supporters and opponents. Clinton seems to have a largely lukewarm, but broader, level of support. Might they be likelier to peel off for a third party chap?
Brexit pushes up price of a bacon butty as China takes advantage of weak sterling to buy British pork
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/26/brexit-pushes-up-price-of-bacon/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.
Trump requires all 3 or it's over.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLW4A
Florida Arizona Pennsylvania