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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Purge: Election Year
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Purge: Election Year
Yesterday Jeremy Corbyn said he ‘fear[ed]some of his supporters may have been “unfairly” barred from voting in the party’s leadership election. He has handed a list of names to party officials, saying he wants a “fair and open” contest, with all those eligible to take part able to do so.’
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Seem to recall that last year about 3,000 were excluded for views not compatible with Labour party / membership of other parties.
NB. Far, far more were excluded for duplication (ie Registered Supporters who were already members etc) or not being on the electoral register - but that's another matter. About 40,000 who signed up this time as Registered Supporters were excluded for these reasons.
Marie le Conte
oh my god this extract from Ed Balls's book https://t.co/czTrL8SnYT https://t.co/fJe82b1kdh
malcolmg said:
You didn't listen in class then?
You know her subject, surely?
Music and Drama I believe, though not an expert.
To me this represents another effort to make the party a broad church, some may not like the left side of broad, but that is life. The Labour vote has been holding under his reign. Why Labour nationally keeps trying to stop people voting is becoming implausible. The way to slow the left down is for the party to get nehind him and do things in a subtle way, up to now they have tried to destroy the castle rather than work within it, and maintain its standing and appeal
Besides, if anyone wants to read of a self-absorbed charlatan they should check The Adventures of Sir Edric on Amazon. It's much better-written, and the money goes to me instead of Balls.
Yellow card.
If you win re-election but Scotland is lost then you'll be an MP for about a year.
Every single Labour MP or PPC should be in Scotland, campaigning, every week. Shadow ministers should be there passionately persuading the Scots the good reasons to stay, on a daily basis. Labour should be pouring money and energy into defeating the SNP in September, because it is Labour voters that will swing this plebiscite. Yet you don't do this. It is quite bizarre.
If you win or lose the GE in 2015 you can shrug your shoulders and look forward to a rematch in 2020. If you lose Scotland, you are permanently crippled.
Miss Plato, I've darned socks in the past. Should probably do it again, actually. Also mended the hems (is that the right word?) on jeans before.
And yes
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK/
Edited extra bit: there are many reasons PBers should buy the above book.
1) Ensures the Morris Dancer Food Fund has sufficient fish food for the enormo-haddock.
2) Mirth decreases stress, lowering the chance of heart attack. Stay safe and buy today!
3) Excellent opportunity to laugh at the ridiculousness of old-fashioned right-wing hierarchical types.
4) Excellent opportunity to laugh at ridiculousness of new-fangled over-sensitive political correctness.
HOW VERY DARE YOU accuse me of not paying attention in class...
*goes off to find Kindle charger...*
We know that the CLP nominations ran heavily for Corbyn but how representative are they, and have some minds changed even in the few weeks since then? We know that many signed up via the Saving Labour route but how meaningful is that - to what extent is it simply reinforcing pre-existing opposition to Corbyn? How active are the unions that endorsed him in pushing his candidacy and how active are those that oppose him?
My guess is that Corbyn will win with about 55% of the vote but I wouldn't rule out him losing and I wouldn't rule out a 60%+ share.
It's tough, though.
I did have work writing something else [don't want to go into detail, it was just boring news stuff] on a part-time basis but that folded for technical reasons. Ironically, the only area I'm exceeding expectations is gambling. My total funds in accounts have roughly tripled since 2009, and that's with the initial deposits long since withdrawn. Small sums, alas, but there we are.
[I might shove together a beginner's guide to F1 betting to self-publish, if I have the time].
Don't be fooled by Mr. T's success. It's very difficult, especially with sci-fi/fantasy (which are still seen as niche genres) to make anything approaching a living.
Anyway, got a story in a fantasy anthology early next year, and one of the other contributors (Adrian Tchaikovsky[sp]) recently won an award, so that (and a few other pretty big names) should help sales, and I'm hoping that, in turn, will help drive readers from that to Kingdom Asunder, which should be out late this year/early next.
Ahem, I apologise for banging on about this. I think a bit of self-promotion is ok, but I don't want to go overboard, so I'll stop rambling about this [and confine my rambling to F1]. The pre-race piece is mostly done, but the markets are still half asleep.
What share of the 45% of the vote that backed independence do you think will switch to Labour if they do as you propose?
If I had backed Corbyn heavily, I would be more than a little concerned at "the purge" of Labour members. Certainly would appear that some Corbyn supporters are being banned for the flimsiest of reasons. If Corbyn wins, Party officials responsible for the bans are likely to face a backlash. Which begs the question, why would they risk losing their jobs if the numbers involved are not likely to make much of a difference to the result? Fot that reason, they must feel that banning members is likely to have a reasonable chance of stopping Corbyn.
I'd observe as a reader that MD certainly *deserves* to be rewarded with a comfortable income based on his considerable talent.
F1: looking like one of those weekends where I have a thousand potential bets and difficulty picking one. Hmm.
Edited extra bit: and thanks
"...Nevertheless, from the Middle East outwards there has been a significant regression in recent decades away from all freer forms of female attire. Forty years ago, the burqa was a rare sight in Afghanistan. Today it dominates.
In the same way, within the lifetime of most readers the Islamic headscarf was comparatively rare in North Africa. Now it has become commonplace – indeed it is becoming a statement not to wear one. The same regression is happening in Turkey and across Europe. Globally Islam is becoming more puritanical and one of the first signs of this, always, is the suppression of women’s freedom..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/26/from-cannes-to-bavaria-politicians-fiddle-with-burkini-bans-whil/
On topic, I've not seen The Purge: Election Year. The Purge: Anarchy was good.
If the SNP and Labour were splitting the Indyref vote and the Tories were hoovering up the unionist vote, then that would help the Tories.
It probably was damp and chilly for the Romans.
The market is so light that any extra betting caused by TSE's article is enough to shift the odds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37204996
After 3 months campaigning, a promise on tuition fees reminds me of Cameron desperately campaigning for students to vote for him in the referendum.
Smith has done a terrible campaign, really bad debate performances, his own campaign is starting to admit defeat (though they are keeping the line of "it's closer that you think").
The 34% of Labour voters who don't think Corbyn told the truth about Trains and the 29% who say May is a better PM are probably close to what Smith is going to get.
Scottish Labour's long-term problem (leaving aside their personnel and UK party troubles), is that having dropped to third, they're now stuck between backing the SNP (which makes them largely irrelevant, apart from on the independence question) and backing the Tories (which makes them disliked).
Umunna and Jarvis would be insane to take the Labour leadership and lose to May in 2020 which is why they will let Smith do it instead. They would aim to be Cameron to Smith's Howard, having got rid of Corbyn, their IDS
Now due to FPTP it's too late to save scottish Labour, but the SNP moving left means that is losing to it's right towards the Tories.
For a recovery in scotland, S.Labour needs 3 things to happen simultaneously and for the long term:
1. A left wing local leader.
2. The SNP moving right to counter the Tories.
3. Oil prices to be low.
Apollo Magazine
Your chance to win Colour: The Art and Science of Illuminated Manuscripts https://t.co/9pBS3dA0j4 https://t.co/rR64pt32sk
Betting PostF1: backed Red Bull and Ferrari to top score (split one stake between each, 3.75 and 4.5 respectively).
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/belgium-pre-race-2016.html
Smith's own campaign posted that in order for them to win even by the slimmest of margins they would need more than 60% of the registered supporters and trade unionists, it's more likely that Corbyn gets that than Smith.
This time, while I expect him to win, there are so many variables that it's a much harder call.
Can't believe that prophecy actually came true.......
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
ALL my predictions come true...
SNP 50
Con 25
Lab 12
Grn 5
LD 4
UKIP 2