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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A tribute to Sir Antony Jay
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A tribute to Sir Antony Jay
Earlier on this week Sir Antony Jay, co-creator and writer of Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister died. For my mind, both shows remain timeless, there’s the above clip about how leading questions can influence polling results, though the scene above was in the days before the BPC.
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https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/769883547431759872
Tightening? So Smith going from 25% to 27%.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3761650/Sarkozy-says-Britain-manage-asylum-seekers-territory.html
What's it go to do with us?
Well done Lewis, from the back to the podium.
(I also think we tend to miss the cyclical nature of economies. Even countries will 0.5% trend growth will string together a coupe of years of 2% from time-to-time.)
I find it has a rather melancholy air. Like Buck House would if we were a republic.
Elderly middle class types love it and move there, then one of them dies and the survivor becomes unfit to drive and they're buggered.
It's only weather that matters. I'm an Eastbourne Geordie and entirely unfussed by changing location to random place with no public transport or shops given teh interwebs. Spent last two decades in nowhereland.
All inspiration appreciated. Cheap is good, 200k budget - I like sunny.
Also few degrees cooler in summer - but milder in winter - than SE
RIP Sir Anthony.
I re-watch it all the time. Favourite episodes probably Doing the Honours, The Moral Dimension, A Victory for Democracy, One of Us, A Diplomatic Incident, The Writing on the Wall
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2016/08/23/sir-antony-jay-co-author-of-yes-minister--obituary/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjeKiIa7XEk
Morning Consult poll
Clinton 43% (-1)
Trump 40% (+2)
(Note: No apparent shift among black voters; just 5% support Trump)
Remember the late 80s when the fear was that Japan would buy up the US economy? I suspect that the current fears of Chinese deep pockets will end in a similar way some 10 to 15 years from now.
"Could you point me to the website detailing BBC bias to the right?" -weejonnie.
Trouble is Corbynista's see the BBC as biased to the neo liberal Tory elite.
Sometimes it's easier to pretend things don't exist than to actually change them.
(Some of these things *might* make a post EU world easier. The big issue, and this is a flaw on our side, I think, is that we tend to think that the rest of the world - China, India, Brazil, Russia, the US, etc. - are rather more free trade than they actually are.)
My wallet's mood after the race:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTBrY_Uterk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y4PEqvk0Jg
Trade is now in a nice pigeonhole, next to 'The City', filed under 'Do not worry my pretty little head'.
"However, not many, perhaps, were aware that the serial was commissioned with a serious political purpose: to popularise public choice theory. "
Who might have commissioned it for that purpose? I think it must have been the IEA.
Humphrey: Bernard, I have served eleven governments in the past thirty years. If I had believed in all their policies, I would have been passionately committed to keeping out of the Common Market, and passionately committed to going into it. I would have been utterly convinced of the rightness of nationalising steel. And of denationalising it and renationalising it. On capital punishment, I'd have been a fervent retentionist and an ardent abolishionist. I would've been a Keynesian and a Friedmanite, a grammar school preserver and destroyer, a nationalisation freak and a privatisation maniac; but above all, I would have been a stark, staring, raving schizophrenic
------
On weapon sales
Hacker: I cannot believe this, we're talking about good and evil.
Humphrey: Ah, Church of England problem..
Hacker: No Humphrey, our problem. We are discussing right and wrong
Humphrey: You may be, minister but I'm not, it would be a serious misuse of government time
Hacker: Selling arms to terrorists is wrong, can't you see that?
Humphrey: No minister. Either you sell arms or you don't. If you sell them, they will inevitably end up with people who have the cash to buy them.
A little later
Hacker: It's all very well to take this lightly, but we cannot close our eyes to something that is as morally wrong as this.
Humphrey: Very well, minister, if you insist upon making me discuss moral issues, may I point out to you that something is either morally wrong or it isn't, it can't be slightly morally wrong...Government isn't about morality. [It's about] stability. Keeping things going> Preventing anarchy. Stopping society falling to bits.Still being here tomorrow...Government isn't about good and evil, it is only about order or chaos.
Hacker: And it's in order for Italian terrorists to get British bombs? And you don't care?
Humphrey: It's not my job to care! That's what politicians are for. My job is to carry out government policy.
Hacker: Even if you think it's wrong?
Humphrey:Well, almost all government policy is wrong. But frightfully well carried out.
Problems only really occur when - in a desire for ideological purity - you move faster than existing contracts. Imagine a British firm that has a three year contract to sell gearboxes to Mercedes in Germany. It will probably have signed three year deals for the purchase of various component parts, from both British and international suppliers.
This is probably a contract with an 8-10% margin. Impose a 15% tariff on importation of components (which it is contractually obliged to purchase), and the firm will have to declare force majeure.
Now, if you announce that five years from now you'll do it, then firms have the ability to plan around.
It's the Sir Humphrey school: at no stage do anything too radical.
What could put a stop to such a retirement?
Only if we were daft enough to Leave the EU I suppose :-)
SpAds, they always get the worst of it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3762288/Catholic-priest-stabbed-ISIS-knifeman-tries-kill-hundreds-setting-bomb-Indonesian-mass.html
Edited extra bit: Mr. kle4, I sympathise. I'm terrible at gratitude for presents.
There is a perception that seems to be widely held that the gains form Free trade come from us being able to sell goods to other contrary's, and that it is some times worth accepting not charging tax on some imports to gat this. this may be popularly believed but it is simply wrong the gains form free trade as because we don't change tax on goods that people in this country what to buy,
By not changing tariffs on things people what to buy, they can buy the goods for less, and hence lead better life, any temporary imbalance in the value of goods coming in Vs going out, will lead to a drop in the values of the currency, making it easer for exporters, and/or company's competing directly against imports, and the currency will keep dropping until they equalibralise. In the mean time, recourses, (mostly people) will more to the Jobs/company's/industry's that we have a relative advantage at, and can create the most values in, thus rising the 'Wealth of the nation' by employing recourses including people in the optimal role.
This understanding, brilliantly describes by Adam Smith, and David Ricardo, is as trough now as it ever was, but with 250 years of economic history to back it up. e.g. Hong Kong 1946-1997, or the UK 1850-1814.
The best the government could do, is simply announce that on the da of BREXIT there will be no tariffs or other restrictions on any good from any country, and stop there.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Minister, I have something to say to you which you may not like to hear.
James Hacker: Why should today be any different?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Minister, the traditional allocation of executive responsibilities has always been so determined as to liberate the Ministerial incumbent from the administrative minutiae by devolving the managerial functions to those whose experience and qualifications have better formed them for the performance of such humble offices, thereby releasing their political overlords for the more onerous duties and profound deliberations that are the inevitable concomitant of their exalted position.
James Hacker: Now, whatever made you think I wouldn't want to hear that?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Well, I thought it might upset you.
James Hacker: How could it? I didn't understand a single word. Humphrey, for God's sake, for once in your life put it into plain English.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: If you insist. You are *not* here to run this Department.
James Hacker: I beg your pardon.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: You are *not* here to run this Department.
James Hacker: I think I am. The people think I am, too.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: With respect, Minister, you are... they are wrong
James Hacker: And who does run this Department?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: I do.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/belgium-post-race-analysis-2016.html
Constructors' race has changed a bit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyU28D1C1-4
Journo: Questions about corruption at BES.
Hacker: Complete Nonsense.
Journo: But they quoted reports of payments to officials.
Hacker: You see, this is absolutely typical. A British company slugs its guts out to win orders, create jobs, earn dollars, and what does it get from the media? A smear campaign...There is no question of bribery, I've had a full internal inquiry, and all these so-called 'payments' have been identified.
Journo: What as?
Humphrey: Commissioning fees, administrative overheads...
Hacker: Operative costs, managerial surcharges...
Woolley: Introduction expenses, miscellaneous outgoings...
Hacker: We have looked into every brown envelope, er, every account book and everything is completely in order. And may I say, allegations of this nature are symptomatic of a very sick society, for which I'm afraid the media must take its share of the blame...Why are you putting thousands of British jobs at risk? I'm calling on the press council to censor the press, for its appalling lack of professional standards in running this story. The council, and indeed the House of Commons, must be concerned about the standards which have applied in this disgraceful matter, and pressure will be brought to bear to make sure this sort of gutter press reporting is not repeated.
If you have nothing to say, say nothing. Better yet, have something to say and say it, no matter what they ask. Pay no attention to the question, just make your own statement. If they ask the question again you simply say, 'that's not the question', or 'I think the real question is', and then you make another statement of your own.
(PART 1)
200K is not enough for within M25. But you know that already
In the South East of England, you can still do Winchester if you can do flats. You can't do posh Home Counties, so no Haslemere or Guildford. You might be able to do Petersfield, which is nice. Try to avoid the South Coast of England: whether it's Hastings, Brighton, Bognor, Portsmouth, Bournemouth, Sandbanks, it's the same mishmash with varying degrees of prosperity, and as you already live in Eastbourne, there's no real point in the move.
Moving to the South West, things pick up. Ignore seaside towns but little market towns are always good I feel. Devizes is nice, Shaftesbury has lots of new builds, Tisbury is lovely, Blandford Forum is also good. Bear in mind that some of these places are genuinely isolated (no buses after six, few taxi services, not on the rail network). They give off a fifties vibe: it makes my skin itch but you're Ukippy so (unsarcastically) that's probably not a problem.
Avoid spa towns: so no Royal Tunbridge Wells, and possibly Bath as well. They carry a premium which they don't deserve.
Let's go further up. Swindon is frowned on by metropolitan sof-is-ti-cates, but f**kem: it's perfectly decent and outstanding transport links. Thames Corridor is outside your budget, but you might be able to do Banbury. Don't do Stratford-upon-Avon unless you like tourists.
Moving to Wales. You might still be able to do Cardiff. Do not do Newport...just don't. The Valleys is cheap but too poor. Swansea, Llanelli...well yes, but why bother? The West Coast is easily affordable but are very isolated. North Wales is an improvement and transport links to Liverpool is good but suffers from the perennial Welsh problem of lovely scenery and rubbish architecture. Mid-West Wales (Brecon and north) is genuinely lovely, but like Dorset you do have isolation problems.
I oddly like Liverpool, for reasons I don't understand, and it is cheap. But that's a me-thing and I don't think it can be unreservedly recommended. Manchester is nice and vibrant, tho' the chip on its shoulder is never far from the surface and the accent takes some getting used to...
(PART 2)
...Birmingham? Better than you think, but again not a place to move to.
Lancaster, Morecambe? Not really. Windswept coast, staring out to sea, wondering where your life went.
Blackpool? Ohgodno.
The Lake District? Full of undiscovered gems and well worth a look. Get the Coogan/Brydon "The Trip" (first series) and see why it's a good idea. Possibly also the Yorkshire Dales, but that's me guessing so don't quote me.
North Yorkshire is good to great - York may now be outside your budget, but the surrounding areas are good. Leeds is genuinely underrated, especially by Southerners,but again is it a place to move to?
Avoid South Yorkshire, Bradford and surrounding, Lincolnshire. I don't know enough about the East Riding (is Beverley nice?) and the old Humberside but I do know Grimsby and Hull are not good.
Going North, and there are certain universal truths: never start a land war in Asia, don't play cards with a man called "Doc", *never* live in Middlesbrough.
An that's about as far up as I go. Please consult others for the Pennines, Newcastle, Scotland (but Edinburgh is very nice!), Northern Ireland, Midlands, Essex and Cornwall. Avoid the coast, stick to market towns, try to balance countryside against transport links. It is fun to do up a wreck but it is hard work and outside most people's pain threshold. Don't buy new-builds (unless off plan) because the premium wears off immediately, but 5-10 years old is just as good.
Please can I have your reasons why that is ?
CORBYN. Jeremy
SMITH, Owen
What am I to do ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/28/britain-will-retain-access-to-single-market-and-curb-migration-u/
http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/property/stoke-on-trent/
http://tinyurl.com/zjyym68
"What should I do, dear Liza, dear Liza ?"