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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn set to win Labour leadership contest with even bigger mandate than last time YouGov poll finds.
Corbyn set to win Labour leadership contest with even bigger mandate than last time YouGov poll finds. pic.twitter.com/IdlCJtfdI9
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Second like Owen Smith...
Edit - and sixth like Owen Smith in this two horse race and Labour in the 2025 election.
pubspuns are available.Edit - Swive autocorrect.
We should get an extra vote per decade of membership.
I was at Trent Bridge today, Oh Lord what a time to be alive.
IT WAS THE THREAD ON ELECTORAL REFORM
But only this morning I was reliably inform it was too close to call. Oh well, never mind...
My father was there and I left a furious answerphone message saying that he was 'a lucky bastard.'
I'm getting the same feeling now...
'You just fucking know during the next general election campaign, Corbyn's going to go campaigning in Warrington South with Gerry Adams'
Prior to the 2015 world cup, in their entire history England had managed scores of 350 just twice in 650 ODIs
Since the 2015 world cup, England have managed 7 scores of 350plus in 28 ODIs
When the England innings ended, I swear to Allah, the crowd, especially we English fans gave out a sigh that you only manage after a post coital cigarette.
AND I'VE GOT TICKETS TO HEADINGLEY, PLEASE LET US WIN THE TOSS AND BAT FIRST
I suspect that the Apple/Irish government appeal will focus on the fact that the tax arrangements between Ireand and Apple fell under the exemptions for encouraging regional development. (In the same way the UK government offered 'incentives' whih helped Nissan move to Sunderland, etc. )
What makes this difference, and where I think compromise will be reached is that the nature of regional development assistance (include tax holidays) is that they are temporary in nature. That is, they are of the nature "Hey Multinational, if you build a factory in Newport, you can have reduced tax on its profits for five years." The Apple deal was unlimited in duration.
So, Apple will argue that the tax deal should have been limited to 25 years (i.e. now), the EU will argue for 10 (because Apple didn't make much money in the 1990s so they wouldn't be giving up much), and they'll settle on 20, which means Apple won't repay very much (a couple of billion), but will need to move to the standard Irish corporate tax rate of 12.5%.
Nothing encapsulates Labour's nightmare more than these numbers. Hard working members, many of whom have given years to the party, knocking on doors etc etc, have had their party stolen by a bunch of entryists from hard-left splinter parties and neophytes who have never met a swing voter on a doorstep in their lives.
Electoral disaster awaits.
I was watching a segment on the change in modern golfers swings compared to Faldo era. Its a similar thing, Tiger came along smashing it miles, they altered courses, and now the idea of Faldo straight down the middle course management is dead and buried. All the top modern golfers have a very different approach to swinging the club.
The underlying issue remains that the centre-left needs not just an attractive leader but an attractive project. That will remain important regardless of whether people split or not, and its absence will doom any new party in the same way..
What they also did in golf was limit the maximum head volume, as again with modern material the equipment makers were able to produce drivers with massive heads but where light enough to swing but had enormous faces which increased so called trampoline effect.
Smith supporters hoped to: 1. Narrow Corbyn's margin of victory. 2. Win among at least one group. @YouGov poll suggests neither likely.
Still got the big problem of opener position and need to find more options in the bowling department.
Thing is, I don't think one can actually win an election without enthusiasm. I've yet to meet a single Owen Smith enthusiast, though I guess Don is one. Nobody hates Owen and at least he's got the guts to stand, but he's just not rousing any real support.
In any case, it's no surprise at all that quite a few "ABC" voters from last year have switched to Corbyn. Any idea that the Labour "moderates" have the maturity and the political nous to successfully lead the party have been completely shattered over the past year, where we've seen them constantly scream like toddlers, showing no self-discipline whenever something they don't like is happening, offer no constructive solutions instead of just pointless moaning, tell outright lies ("John McDonnel broke into my office") and mastermind laughably feeble "plots" which would make Homer Simpson blush with embarrassment. And that's without even getting into that they called the EU Referendum spectacularly wrong, and that, if they'd had their way and Labour had made a "passionate" case for Remain, the two-thirds of Labour seats which voted Leave would now be lost for a generation.
Welcome to the new world
But rings true with what we're hearing. St Jez is always right, and CCTV is a Tory stooge.
I see no way forward if this poll reflects the result. Labour are in zugzwang.
Let this also be a lesson to those anti-democrats who are seeking to re-run the referendum...
The person who failed to energise the Labour vote was Alan Johnson. He played a key role in the campaign. For Chrissake, Johnson couldn't even persuade his own constituency to vote Remain.
Leave took 67.6 per cent of the vote in Hull. Remain were walloped in Johnson's Hull.
And somehow, the conclusion of this is that Corbyn is to blame for Brexit, and Johnson is not.
Quelle surprise!
He had been noted but never charged for daubing the walls of the same police station with slogans referring to self-styled al-Qaeda member, Mohamed Merah.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3765370/French-police-officer-wounded-knife-wielding-attacker.html
I can name at least two Labour MPs who would win under any label. Labour is the C&A of today; only really exists outside of the U.K.,and it might yet become the BHS.
He has shown no ability to be elected by the wider electorate - there is no evidence that he is a potential PM
Did you see the results of this year's local elections?
More importantly, at Test Match level, has he shown the consistent ability to dig in for long periods, technically very sound, never giving opportunities etc etc etc, which is what you need from #3 / #4.
For me he hasn't. He is fine coming at 7/8 and being very dangerous if he gets going.