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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big hope for Trump now is that there will be a polling fai
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big hope for Trump now is that there will be a polling fail as large as in the UK at GE2015
Twelve days to go before the US elects Barack Obama’s successor and so far at least the polling both national and in the key swing states suggests a return to the White House after a gap of 16 years for Hillary Clinton. This time, of course, as President not as First Lady.
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A couple of little nuggets :
1. Mike Pence having been dispatched yesterday to shore up Utah is today off to Omaha to fend off Clinton in NE CD02.
2. Clinton campaign moving resources from Nevada to Arizona as it considers the former is moving comfortably into their column.
I'd love to see ward by ward breakdowns here.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 13m13 minutes ago
0.5% q3 GDP is exactly what OBR predicted at Budget, significantly above the -0.1 in Treasury Brexit impact assessment
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/who_the_hell_is_an_undecided_voter.html
Mind boggling. A side with a good GOTV operation must be in hog heaven.
@faisalislam: It did, the Chancellor says and the document implies, but would be difficult to presume that's worth 0.6% of GDP twitter.com/rehabspice/sta…
We forget as non-americans that in republican circles, voting for Clinton is very much frowned upon. So I could see a lot of republicans doing the same as that group and voting for Clinton over an objectively terrible Trump.
I'm hoping there isnt going to be a tortoise and hare thing going on.
Only economic shock was how shockingly bad the HM Treasury forecast was...
View image on Twitter
Case for Bank of England cutting interest rates 2nd time has probably evaporated. Not clear it was necessary they did it post-June 23rd
My 0.6% prediction might still be right when the first revision of Q3 GDP comes in. Ones thing for sure, the masses will never believe economists ever again. That's if they believed them in the first place.
Please don't shout, but well done for your first ever post which says anything other than YEBBUT TRUMP.
Brexiteers. This is great news.
Remoaners. This is terrible.
Take your pick...
The quantum of cut was such that it was neither here nor there, but it said "we're all over this".
Cinton ...... 336 ECVs
Trump ...... 200 ECVs
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/788157613657755648
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/788152288011513856
She has had public campaign events in the swing states for the last week.
When it is implimented and the UK stops being the centre for pan european advertising as it might things could change very fast. Advertising has always been a bellwether.
Clinton 1.215
Trump 5.75
Sanders 360
Pence 865
Trump has been holding his ground in the betting market for 2.5 weeks. If I were advising him, I'd say make some news, delivering preferably at least two punches - in connection say with foreign policy towards the Middle East and Russia - and look strong. Before the election, things may get hairy in the eastern Mediterranean, and there are ongoing land battles for Aleppo, Kirkuk and Mosul. Mosul especially, where US soldiers are engaged, looks like money for the self-assured man with the tremendous assets. Don't whinge about the media; play judo with them. With his mental problems, is he going to understand that? Never mind whether someone says you have short fingers. The media can be like a juggernaut or oil tanker. They may report some more about what Trump does to young non-consenting women with his hands or even his willy, but they're not going to stop reporting the Russian aircraft carrier. Look strong. He's quite good at that, but he needs to tweak his act. He's not going to "be like water" like Bruce Lee, but he needs to avoid looking all the time like a posturing Mussolini with his chin jutting out. Mussolini only won an election after he was already in office.
Helmut Norpoth, who predicts a Trump win, says his model would have picked the winner every time since 1912 except 1960, year of the famous Kennedy-Nixon TV debate, but maybe the debates this year make 2016 like 1960. The inputs into his model are performance in the primaries relative to rival candidates in the same party - especially in New Hampshire - and the number of terms the sitting president has been in the White House, but I don't know how he calculates probabilities. It's kind of refreshing for someone not to be crunching polls, even if the model's accuracy with past results is probably an artefact. (Though it's probably not as bad as saying that no horse with a 'D' in its name has ever won this race on a Tuesday.)
However this is a chap who spent his entire prebudget interview with a recent CoTE talking about whether he travelled 1st or 2nd class on a train so well..
It seems to me that the Treasury stuff was based on the idea that there would be an immediate psychological chill in people's economic activity. Clearly there hasn't been - doesn't mean when the real trouble with trade, custom's paperwork etc etc starts there won't be a dip.
Pence having to campaign in Utah and Omaha speaks volumes. You don't send your Veep pick and one of your few competent surrogates there unless there's trouble.
But it was a small mistake in the overall scheme of things which will hopefully be reversed quite soon.
Hillary hasn't been on O'Reilly Factor once - he's been on 43x apparently.
The blind-eyeing of the media to Hillary's low profile/green screen speeches is amazing. She did another one with graphics worthy of 80s Dr Who - and no one is pointing them out.
http://6abc.com/politics/tim-kaine-campaigns-in-bucks-county-allentown/1574677/
And right now sterling is down by more than WTO tariffs against the Euro so UK competitiveness in terms of selling into Europe is unlikely to be significantly affected. What will be a bigger problem is the regulation of services when we leave the single market. Hence all the focus on passporting etc.
I will be genuinely surprised if we do not end up with tariff free trade in goods but I accept that there will be consequences of not being in the customs union and in our ability to provide international services from here with local regulation being sufficient.
From all his sniffing during the debates, we know where he is getting his energy.
Hhmmm .....
The truth is nobody knows whether or not we will be better off in or out in the long term, nor is it knowable as we can't compare the future outcome with the path that will not be taken. The only thing we could do is look at relative performance against the EU countries, but even there there so many other factors than come into play that attributing relative success or failure to EU membership would be extremely difficult.
I'll say it again, we should spend our time looking at UK productivity as it has the potential to be more fruitful than any outcome of our EU exit negotiations.
Maybe they won't vote for an out and out racist like Trump?
That election was much more of a toss-up compared to Trump/Clinton.
Just taking a simple average of the polls - then betting on it - really isn't a stupid strategy in these presidential election thingys.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
http://spinzon.com/tim-kaine-catholic-church-will-change-sex-marriage-stance-will-banned-u-s/
"The United States of America, more precisely, the future President of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton, will state an ultimatum. And that ultimatum will be to either change its stance on same-sex marriage or pack its bags and get out of America"
In more Brexit Bad News, Dutch bank IMG just created 400 new jobs in... the City of London. Don't they know the exodus is about to start?
However, there's never been a candidate like Trump so I still think it's questioning how many people would actually admit to voting for him.
Personally I think there will be a shy Trump factor but not enough to stop the Clintons.
One for Moniker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZPBeor0oSY
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-clinton-texas-red-state-230368
- Shy Trumpers won't know others who feel the same - despite possibly knowing a few who are equally shy.
- Vocal Trumpers who live in areas where Trumpers are in the majority
- Those who feel their workplace or livelihood could be damaged by saying they'd vote Trump [public sector et al]
- People who don't like Trump per se, but want MAGA rather than Continuity Obama/Hillary
- People who don't vote or haven't for decades and now are - impossible to track
I honestly don't take much notice of the polling - I just glance at the internals and mostly laugh at the skewed samples - like Brexit, they're making the news not reflecting it.
Corbyn OTOH..
"What will be a bigger problem is the regulation of services when we leave the single market. Hence all the focus on passporting etc. "
Mr. L., I remember reading a while back a seemingly authoritative article which suggested the loss of passporting could lose the City business worth as much as £10bn a year. It sounds a lot but in terms of the overall worth of the City's business it is a very small proportion and in terms of tax take it will be a rounding error. The point made up-thread about percentage of a percentage is, I think, very valid.
@glw
"I'll say it again, we should spend our time looking at UK productivity as it has the potential to be more fruitful than any outcome of our EU exit negotiations."
Yup, the UK's productivity is, as noted on here many times, pretty crap and we are not going to become more wealthy as a nation until that is sorted. It is I think a complicated problem but on of the causes is surely the ever increasing population which enables firms to exist by using cheap, taxpayer subsidised, labour rather than investing in new methods, plant and training.
Which isn't to say the Society of Jesus, whom Kaine plays for, hasn't got form playing both sides of the street. Kaine will probably be president some day.
The Democrats have not held the Whitehouse for more than 8 unbroken years since the 22nd amendment.