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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary is now even more than reliant on the First Lady to get

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary is now even more than reliant on the First Lady to get her over the line

What’s become almost the best guide to how WH2016 is going is how often it is Michelle Obama who is making the news.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    1st, not like Hillary?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Morlando 125
    @mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Matt McDermott
    Matt McDermott – Verified account ‏@mattmfm

    Case of voter fraud in Iowa, but:
    1) It was caught.
    2) It was the first in local memory.
    3) It was a Trump voter.
    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/crime-and-courts/2016/10/28/voter-fraud-suspect-arrested-des-moines/92892042/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 1m1 minute ago
    I've gone over the internals of the IBD poll. They are showing MAJOR shifts with subgroups that look like manipulated BS.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: P3 underway.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2016

    Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 1m1 minute ago
    I've gone over the internals of the IBD poll. They are showing MAJOR shifts with subgroups that look like manipulated BS.

    Just as the FBI has switched from Ying to Yang to keep balance the IBD has to go from Yang to Ying for the right.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    nunu said:

    Matt McDermott
    Matt McDermott – Verified account ‏@mattmfm

    Case of voter fraud in Iowa, but:
    1) It was caught.
    2) It was the first in local memory.
    3) It was a Trump voter.
    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/crime-and-courts/2016/10/28/voter-fraud-suspect-arrested-des-moines/92892042/

    The best part is that her excuse is that the polls are rigged.
  • Michelle has been a good first-lady. She should continuing focusing upon the good work achieved - despite Barry - and support those causes moving forward.

    :Lexington-called-michelle-wrong:
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    tyson said:

    Completely O/T...but something I've meant to post out, but looking at this photo...

    I have to say that Theresa May is extremely photogenic. She's a very stylish women. Cameron always looked a bit of a spiv, but May is possibly the best dressed political leader I can think of.

    You need to cast a wider net, Tyson. This is Belinda Stronach, former Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development in Canada:

    http://www.wonderslist.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Belinda-Stronach-Canada.jpg

    And Mara Carfagna, former Minister for Equal Opportunity in Italy:

    http://www.abcnewspoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Top-10-Most-Beautiful-Female-Politicians-in-the-World-2015-Mara-Carfagna.jpg
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    For those who are complaining about gerrymandering of the British constituencies just be grateful you aren't american.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/10/28/how-to-gerrymander-your-way-to-a-huge-election-victory/

    The NC Carolina map is a work of beauty, despite getting the majority of the Congressional votes Dems won only 3 seats out of 13 in 2012.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Interesting piece on the personality cult of a Communist leader (not Corbyn):
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-china-blog-37800062
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I simply can't take a guy who looks like Groucho Marx seriously

    https://youtu.be/7Xh9cEMry9Y
  • Fecking lraped chinese noteplad: no sperring or interryzance. I brame Plofessol Plessclot.

    And humble apologies to our friends from China: Not everything is perfect (so we attempt to mask with 'humour').
  • Mrs Clinton
    Mrs Obama
    So much for feminism.
  • Alistair said:

    For those who are complaining about gerrymandering of the British constituencies just be grateful you aren't american.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/10/28/how-to-gerrymander-your-way-to-a-huge-election-victory/

    The NC Carolina map is a work of beauty, despite getting the majority of the Congressional votes Dems won only 3 seats out of 13 in 2012.

    How exactly are the British constituencies going to be gerrymandered?
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Morlando 125
    @mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies

    Just on that NC data (more here: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)

    1. "In comparison to each party's total ballots in 2012 to this date, registered Democrats are 4.8 percent behind their same day totals, registered Republicans are 2.2 percent ahead, and registered unaffiliated voters are 35.5 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago."
    2. The key thing in NC is in-person absentee ballots, which are the main part of early voting - they are 8% ahead of 2012 - Democrats are 5% behind 2012, Republicans are up 12% and unaffiliated are up 39%;
    3. AA voting is again down - they only made up 20% of the in-person votes on Friday vs 26% on the equivalent day in 2012;
    4. What should also be worrying in addition for the Democrats is the data on the unaffiliated voters, who have seen the biggest increase in percentage terms - of the 391K who have cast a ballot, 50% voting in the primaries - and 55% voted in the Republican primaries to 45% in teh Democrat ones. That might be a warning sign that the unaffiliated group is breaking for the Republicans, although it might be early days and there is no data on the othet 50%.

    Personally, I am waiting to see what the weekend data shows on early voting but it looks more like HRC is in trouble in NC.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Morlando 125
    @mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies

    Just on that NC data (more here: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)

    1. "In comparison to each party's total ballots in 2012 to this date, registered Democrats are 4.8 percent behind their same day totals, registered Republicans are 2.2 percent ahead, and registered unaffiliated voters are 35.5 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago."
    2. The key thing in NC is in-person absentee ballots, which are the main part of early voting - they are 8% ahead of 2012 - Democrats are 5% behind 2012, Republicans are up 12% and unaffiliated are up 39%;
    3. AA voting is again down - they only made up 20% of the in-person votes on Friday vs 26% on the equivalent day in 2012;
    4. What should also be worrying in addition for the Democrats is the data on the unaffiliated voters, who have seen the biggest increase in percentage terms - of the 391K who have cast a ballot, 50% voting in the primaries - and 55% voted in the Republican primaries to 45% in teh Democrat ones. That might be a warning sign that the unaffiliated group is breaking for the Republicans, although it might be early days and there is no data on the othet 50%.

    Personally, I am waiting to see what the weekend data shows on early voting but it looks more like HRC is in trouble in NC.
    Great data, thx.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544

    Mrs Clinton
    Mrs Obama
    So much for feminism.

    If you're trying to make the point I think you're trying to make (cack-handedly), then that's an argument for more feminism, not less.

    (Though I prefer equality over feminism).
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Alistair said:

    Just had a quick look at the Nevada early voting stats

    39815 Other
    98055 Dems
    62943 Reps

    In total there's 1.4 million registered voters so that's 13% of the state voted.

    As ever, names and distrcit of voters available on gov website http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/election/Pages/EV_TurnoutData.aspx

    Its a lot more than that. 378,558 early/mail-in voters in Nevada up to 10pm 28/10/16 US Pacific time. So that's 27% of registered voters so far.

    Dems have a margin in early over Reps just a tad behind that in 2012, when Obama carried the state.

    http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    F1: P3 underway.

    The Red Bulls seem to have found the pace, up in among the Mercs with the red cars 0.8 back.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Adam D Brown
    Florida Poll (10/25-27):
    @auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs

    Trump 48% (+6)
    Clinton 42
    Johnson 2

    3% shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/zMKXVVKrtw
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited October 2016
    Mr. Sandpit, jein. According to radio, Mercedes had traffic and the Ferraris screwed up their fast laps.

    Qualifying could be interesting.

    Edited extra bit: off for a bite to eat, shall return fairly soon.
  • Mrs Clinton
    Mrs Obama
    So much for feminism.

    If you're trying to make the point I think you're trying to make (cack-handedly), then that's an argument for more feminism, not less.

    (Though I prefer equality over feminism).
    Uxorious JJ, always under the Ottoman rolling-pin.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Flight aborts takeoff, all aboard escape safely. https://twitter.com/FlightAlerts777

    It may be becoming safer to be in the sky than on the ground in the dodgier parts of the USA (and UK?)

    When I first visited Washington DC and stayed with a friend, he told me that a particular block near the White House was 'very dangerous'. If I had to go through it, it must be by taxi, not on foot.

    Today's level of aircraft safety is an extraordinary achievement.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. Sandpit, jein. According to radio, Mercedes had traffic and the Ferraris screwed up their fast laps.

    Qualifying could be interesting.

    Edited extra bit: off for a bite to eat, shall return fairly soon.

    There's been lots of cars getting in the way of each other, short track here at 2.6 miles. Sky commentators reckon the Mercs are fastest on a clean track, then RB than Ferrari. Qualifying starts two hours from now.
  • So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    I simply can't take a guy who looks like Groucho Marx seriously

    https://youtu.be/7Xh9cEMry9Y

    Now he is a bit of a joke, but 40+ years ago he produced an incredibly infamous expose of special needs "education" in NY, which he won a Peabody for.

    http://geraldo.com/page/willowbrook

    WARNING:- The documentary really is absolutely shocking.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    PlatoSaid said:

    Morlando 125
    @mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies

    Just on that NC data (more here: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)

    1. "In comparison to each party's total ballots in 2012 to this date, registered Democrats are 4.8 percent behind their same day totals, registered Republicans are 2.2 percent ahead, and registered unaffiliated voters are 35.5 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago."
    2. The key thing in NC is in-person absentee ballots, which are the main part of early voting - they are 8% ahead of 2012 - Democrats are 5% behind 2012, Republicans are up 12% and unaffiliated are up 39%;
    3. AA voting is again down - they only made up 20% of the in-person votes on Friday vs 26% on the equivalent day in 2012;
    4. What should also be worrying in addition for the Democrats is the data on the unaffiliated voters, who have seen the biggest increase in percentage terms - of the 391K who have cast a ballot, 50% voting in the primaries - and 55% voted in the Republican primaries to 45% in teh Democrat ones. That might be a warning sign that the unaffiliated group is breaking for the Republicans, although it might be early days and there is no data on the othet 50%.

    Personally, I am waiting to see what the weekend data shows on early voting but it looks more like HRC is in trouble in NC.
    The problem with that source is that it takes no account of the fact that this time in contrast to 2012 in NC early voting has been restricted in many counties only for that to be struck down by a federal court as gerrymandering designed to discriminate against (Democratic-voting) minorities, as a result of which many early voting sites only but only belatedly. I agree that the weekend data will give a more informed picture.

    Meanwhile the NY Times has looked at early voting patterns in NC and used them to forecast that Clinton will end up 6% ahead.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html
  • So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.

    Can the American people ask for another go with new candidates?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    PlatoSaid said:

    Morlando 125
    @mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies

    Just on that NC data (more here: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)

    1. "In comparison to each party's total ballots in 2012 to this date, registered Democrats are 4.8 percent behind their same day totals, registered Republicans are 2.2 percent ahead, and registered unaffiliated voters are 35.5 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago."
    2. The key thing in NC is in-person absentee ballots, which are the main part of early voting - they are 8% ahead of 2012 - Democrats are 5% behind 2012, Republicans are up 12% and unaffiliated are up 39%;
    3. AA voting is again down - they only made up 20% of the in-person votes on Friday vs 26% on the equivalent day in 2012;
    4. What should also be worrying in addition for the Democrats is the data on the unaffiliated voters, who have seen the biggest increase in percentage terms - of the 391K who have cast a ballot, 50% voting in the primaries - and 55% voted in the Republican primaries to 45% in teh Democrat ones. That might be a warning sign that the unaffiliated group is breaking for the Republicans, although it might be early days and there is no data on the othet 50%.

    Personally, I am waiting to see what the weekend data shows on early voting but it looks more like HRC is in trouble in NC.
    The problem with that source is that it takes no account of the fact that this time in contrast to 2012 in NC early voting has been restricted in many counties only for that to be struck down by a federal court as gerrymandering designed to discriminate against (Democratic-voting) minorities, as a result of which many early voting sites only but only belatedly. I agree that the weekend data will give a more informed picture.

    Meanwhile the NY Times has looked at early voting patterns in NC and used them to forecast that Clinton will end up 6% ahead.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html
    as a result of which many early voting sites have only opened belatedly
  • PlatoSaid said:
    Hillary eggplant. What a freak.
  • Flight aborts takeoff, all aboard escape safely. https://twitter.com/FlightAlerts777

    It may be becoming safer to be in the sky than on the ground in the dodgier parts of the USA (and UK?)

    When I first visited Washington DC and stayed with a friend, he told me that a particular block near the White House was 'very dangerous'. If I had to go through it, it must be by taxi, not on foot.

    Today's level of aircraft safety is an extraordinary achievement.

    The area just beyond Capitol Hill was always very dangerous, but seemed to be gentrifying in an edgy kinda way when I was last there in May. The area around the White House always seemed fine to me.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.

    Is anyone offering a market on the winner of the election to be indicted before being inaugurated?

    Given Trump's sexual misconduct and Hilary's inability to understand the Federal Records Act anything above 2-1 looks like value right now.

    It would be a much better option for the US and the planet as well of course...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    edited October 2016

    Mrs Clinton
    Mrs Obama
    So much for feminism.

    If you're trying to make the point I think you're trying to make (cack-handedly), then that's an argument for more feminism, not less.

    (Though I prefer equality over feminism).
    Uxorious JJ, always under the Ottoman rolling-pin.
    I am very fond of my wife, but also disagree with her on many things.

    One of the things we may possibly agree on is your nastiness.

    Edit: and she LOL's at it being an 'Ottoman' rolling pin. You really don't know her ...
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Is this true?

    Jack Posobiec
    Hillary has cancelled all campaign events in FL, OH, and NC
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Is this true?

    Jack Posobiec
    Hillary has cancelled all campaign events in FL, OH, and NC

    The less the public sees of her the better for her. Her best strategy is strict absence.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Observer, still odds against, I'd say.

    Mr. Sandpit, whilst that tallies with BBC radio commentary (some of which was bloody infantile) I'm not sure it's that straightforward. Fortunately, not long to find out (starts at 7pm).

    Anyway, now to knock off the pre-qualifying piece.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    PlatoSaid said:

    Adam D Brown
    Florida Poll (10/25-27):
    @auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs

    Trump 48% (+6)
    Clinton 42
    Johnson 2

    3% shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/zMKXVVKrtw

    Yet the same polling company, conducting polling over exactly the same period in Ohio, had an equally improbable result of Clinton 5% ahead there, a previously marginal state where she had reportedly been struggling. Taking all their statewide polls on that day, there wasn't much to suggest movement overall.

    We have yet to see whether the e-mail stuff shifts the polling (and early voting).
  • ydoethur said:

    So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.

    Is anyone offering a market on the winner of the election to be indicted before being inaugurated?

    Given Trump's sexual misconduct and Hilary's inability to understand the Federal Records Act anything above 2-1 looks like value right now.

    It would be a much better option for the US and the planet as well of course...

    Trump has a fraud trial starting in November and a rape trial scheduled for December. The way the US justice system works neither is likely to be over on 20th January, which is the day he'll be inaugurated.

    Not sure when Hillary might get busted. Right now, there seems to be scant evidence justifying a trial.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    PlatoSaid said:

    Is this true?

    Jack Posobiec
    Hillary has cancelled all campaign events in FL, OH, and NC

    The less the public sees of her the better for her. Her best strategy is strict absence.
    I thought the same on hearing that she was 'putting resources' into Arizona.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: Ladbrokes has no market up. Hmm.

    On the plus side, at the moment Mr. Putney's thought of laying Rosberg at 1.33 for top 3 (can't recall if that's qualifying or podium) looks quite good right now.
  • Mr. Observer, still odds against, I'd say.

    Mr. Sandpit, whilst that tallies with BBC radio commentary (some of which was bloody infantile) I'm not sure it's that straightforward. Fortunately, not long to find out (starts at 7pm).

    Anyway, now to knock off the pre-qualifying piece.

    If, as below, she is five points behind in Florida and struggling in North Carolina Trump is moving into a very strong position.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    “The number of extreme anti-government groups have have exploded since President Obama took office, from 150 groups to now well above 1,000, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center.

    Many of these individuals have “deep seated fears of a possible Clinton presidency… if Trump were to lose, that could spark God knows what kind of violence or domestic terrorism,” said Heidi Beirich, who heads the SPLC’s Intelligence Project, an initiative which tracks the nation’s hate and hardline anti-government groups.”

    (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/29/oregon-verdict-gives-anti-government-movement-hope.html)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    PlatoSaid said:

    Adam D Brown
    Florida Poll (10/25-27):
    @auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs

    Trump 48% (+6)
    Clinton 42
    Johnson 2

    3% shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/zMKXVVKrtw

    Yet the same polling company, conducting polling over exactly the same period in Ohio, had an equally improbable result of Clinton 5% ahead there, a previously marginal state where she had reportedly been struggling. Taking all their statewide polls on that day, there wasn't much to suggest movement overall.

    We have yet to see whether the e-mail stuff shifts the polling (and early voting).
    Ipsos: FL: Clinton + 4
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Flight aborts takeoff, all aboard escape safely. https://twitter.com/FlightAlerts777

    It may be becoming safer to be in the sky than on the ground in the dodgier parts of the USA (and UK?)

    When I first visited Washington DC and stayed with a friend, he told me that a particular block near the White House was 'very dangerous'. If I had to go through it, it must be by taxi, not on foot.

    Today's level of aircraft safety is an extraordinary achievement.

    Yep.

    I work in the aviation Insurance industry - I started in 1980 and the changes in safety levels really are amazing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.

    Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.

    The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.
  • “The number of extreme anti-government groups have have exploded since President Obama took office, from 150 groups to now well above 1,000, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center.

    Many of these individuals have “deep seated fears of a possible Clinton presidency… if Trump were to lose, that could spark God knows what kind of violence or domestic terrorism,” said Heidi Beirich, who heads the SPLC’s Intelligence Project, an initiative which tracks the nation’s hate and hardline anti-government groups.”

    (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/29/oregon-verdict-gives-anti-government-movement-hope.html)

    And if Trump wins stay clear of American cities for a while. It's not looking good States-side.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, there's no need to wish me financial misfortune. Surely we can hope Trump wins North Carolina and loses everywhere else?

    One agrees on their moral weakness. Perhaps only Utah can save America from a delinquent president (although I don't know much of the extra Republican candidate there).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    Mr. Observer, still odds against, I'd say.

    Mr. Sandpit, whilst that tallies with BBC radio commentary (some of which was bloody infantile) I'm not sure it's that straightforward. Fortunately, not long to find out (starts at 7pm).

    Anyway, now to knock off the pre-qualifying piece.

    If, as below, she is five points behind in Florida and struggling in North Carolina Trump is moving into a very strong position.

    Florida is probably neck and neck. If Trump gains FL, IA, and OH, but loses NC, he still loses 244 to 294.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: forty minutes after P3 and still no markets. Bit tardy today at Ladbrokes.
  • ydoethur said:

    Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.

    Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.

    The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.

    I just don't see equivalence between Hillary not using proper email protocols and Trump's racism and sexual predatory.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I know this is jest, but right now the optics a awful

    John Podesta compares himself to a mobster for his collusion with Politico. #hillarysemail #podestaemails22 https://t.co/acBN8n7CRS
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.

    Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.

    The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.
    On what basis for Clinton? FBI can't or won't yet say whether the emails even were to and from Clinton herself.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.

    Which of the two sleazebags did you have in mind? Are you worried she might do a Bush and support the other party?
  • Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.

    Michelle has Presidential ambitions. If she knows what's good for her ( and she does ) she'll distance herself from the toxic crook pronto.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.

    You think she's been good?
    Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    Amidst all the strife and argument, here's one story that people from all sides of political debate can probably smile at:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-37809819
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Observer, only half an eye here (trying to spot the markets appearing) but what Clinton did was more serious than that. Security protocols aren't there to make men in black feel important.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Amidst all the strife and argument, here's one story that people from all sides of political debate can probably smile at:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-37809819

    Indeed. One happy story in among all the gloom and doom!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    F1: forty minutes after P3 and still no markets. Bit tardy today at Ladbrokes.

    I guess the sports desk is still busy with the football. Have you tried asking them on Twitter what happened to the F1 markets?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    Mrs Clinton
    Mrs Obama
    So much for feminism.

    If you're trying to make the point I think you're trying to make (cack-handedly), then that's an argument for more feminism, not less.

    (Though I prefer equality over feminism).
    Uxorious JJ, always under the Ottoman rolling-pin.
    I am very fond of my wife, but also disagree with her on many things.

    One of the things we may possibly agree on is your nastiness.

    Edit: and she LOL's at it being an 'Ottoman' rolling pin. You really don't know her ...
    I don't know what gender Monika is...so let me just say "it"......but "it" writes the most succinct posts on pbCOM....Often barely a few words, and often they are very funny. I like to think Moniker is a very sweet Primary School teacher in Dulwich who plays out this right wing caricature of an alter ego.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.

    Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.

    The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.

    I just don't see equivalence between Hillary not using proper email protocols and Trump's racism and sexual predatory.

    Depends on what was in them and what was leaked from them.

    The FBI have so far found no evidence that anything highly sensitive (as in life threatening) was stolen. However, it should not even be in question especially for someone who trades on her experience and political skill.

    While it is of course also possible and indeed entirely fair to argue that Trump's alleged behaviour is orders of magnitude worse, the simple fact remains that there is prima facie evidence to suggest they are both guilty of wilfully breaking the criminal law - which should rule both of them out of being President.

    Which brings me back to my original point that they should both withdraw regardless of the damage to Mr Dancer's book. It's not a hope of Trump winning NC and losing everywhere else - it's an urgent need for them both to lose every state.
  • GeoffM said:

    Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.

    You think she's been good?
    Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
    I doubt that there's anywhere where views are 'universally' held, not even N.Korea. It's certainly the majority view though.

    '64% view Michelle Obama favorably'

    http://tinyurl.com/hvvbgd4

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    GeoffM said:

    Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.

    You think she's been good?
    Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
    Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.

    That's a very worrying idea.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: pre-qualifying piece is here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2016.html

    In related news, I'm bloody perplexed as to why the visitor numbers are so high. Hundreds every day from a more usual single figures (double at race weekends).
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    PlatoSaid said:
    Hillary eggplant. What a freak.
    A principled conservative. Good luck to him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    F1: pre-qualifying piece is here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2016.html

    In related news, I'm bloody perplexed as to why the visitor numbers are so high. Hundreds every day from a more usual single figures (double at race weekends).

    Do you maybe have a history of making very long odds winning bets?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.

    How have you rated Romney's term as president?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?

    Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    PlatoSaid said:

    Adam D Brown
    Florida Poll (10/25-27):
    @auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs

    Trump 48% (+6)
    Clinton 42
    Johnson 2

    3% shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/zMKXVVKrtw

    Yet the same polling company, conducting polling over exactly the same period in Ohio, had an equally improbable result of Clinton 5% ahead there, a previously marginal state where she had reportedly been struggling. Taking all their statewide polls on that day, there wasn't much to suggest movement overall.

    We have yet to see whether the e-mail stuff shifts the polling (and early voting).
    Ipsos: FL: Clinton + 4
    The Florida polling has been remarkably consistent and in line with early voting when comparing with 2012.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Alistair said:

    Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?

    Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?

    Its beginning to feel inevitable at this point. I don't know why, I've started to back Trump. Wish I'd gone in 6 when it was available.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Mark, a nice idea, but I doubt suddenly hundreds of strangers are checking my blog daily because of that.

    Besides, I only have two tips that could legitimately be described as long odds, and one of those was back when Brown was PM.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited October 2016
    Alistair said:

    Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?

    Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?

    Possibly because everyone thinks she's such a dud she was only one silly cock-up away from defeat anyway. Add in the pessimism and tepidity of most of her supporters and the visceral loathing pro-Trumpers have for her...

    Incidentally the mathematics of this race means that she should still win unless she is actually indicted before polling day which I doubt is even possible given the short time left. But she will be crippled from her first hour in office if this investigation is ongoing, and it may severely damage the down ticket campaign leaving her facing a very hostile congress.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?

    Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?

    Its beginning to feel inevitable at this point. I don't know why, I've started to back Trump. Wish I'd gone in 6 when it was available.
    Some of us have him at 6.5 and still think he'll lose
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    tyson said:

    GeoffM said:

    Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.

    You think she's been good?
    Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
    Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.
    Michelle has done the job of First Lady very well. It's a difficult job to get right and she's given her time to a lot of good causes that are dear to her.

    It's a very different role to running for office though, where everything you've ever said and done is analysed critically by opponents, and you're expected to have an opinion on every current issue.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Jobabob said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?

    Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?

    Its beginning to feel inevitable at this point. I don't know why, I've started to back Trump. Wish I'd gone in 6 when it was available.
    Some of us have him at 6.5 and still think he'll lose
    It just feels like we're all going to wake up on the 9th and look at each other, stunned as Donald takes the rust belt on the back of rare voters.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    tyson said:

    GeoffM said:

    Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.

    You think she's been good?
    Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
    Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.

    Of course left wingers aren't blinkered, oh no............
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.

    Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.

    The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.
    On what basis for Clinton? FBI can't or won't yet say whether the emails even were to and from Clinton herself.
    I would have thought they must have something serious. To do this just before an election they must be bloody sure of themselves.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Yet the same polling company, conducting polling over exactly the same period in Ohio, had an equally improbable result of Clinton 5% ahead there, a previously marginal state where she had reportedly been struggling. Taking all their statewide polls on that day, there wasn't much to suggest movement overall.
    .

    Yeah, tiny samples. Even assuming no weighting failing, all that Florida poll is stating is a 95% chance of the result being between Trump+15 and Clinton+3 ..... the latter being about where all the others are at.

    Ditto their Ohio poll, 95% between Trump+5 and Clinton+13.


    As you say, let's see how the email news shifts things. Does Abedin resign immediately? Even then there'll be some damage, say 1% maybe costs Clinton her chance in AZ IA OH, if it's 3% then NC NV FL also. There's quite a gap after that though, needs up to a 6% move to take the next states (PA, CO perhaps) ..... which is the point Trump wins.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited October 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?

    Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?

    Its beginning to feel inevitable at this point. I don't know why, I've started to back Trump. Wish I'd gone in 6 when it was available.
    Some of us have him at 6.5 and still think he'll lose
    It just feels like we're all going to wake up on the 9th and look at each other, stunned as Donald takes the rust belt on the back of rare voters.
    Well, it's possible. But remember what we said when Jeremy Corbyn said he would get non-voters to vote Labour - the problem is that non-voters don't vote. It's a sine qua non for the role, indeed. So his path still looks too steep and rocky.

    If it were any candidate other than Hilary, this race would have been over months ago and the most one-sided election since 1936. That we're even discussing a possible Republican victory, and were doing so even before today's events, is an extremely damning comment on her weakness.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    F1: pre-qualifying piece is here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2016.html

    In related news, I'm bloody perplexed as to why the visitor numbers are so high. Hundreds every day from a more usual single figures (double at race weekends).

    Have you been linked from somewhere, do you have a log of IP addresses you can geo-locate?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?

    Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?

    Its beginning to feel inevitable at this point. I don't know why, I've started to back Trump. Wish I'd gone in 6 when it was available.
    Some of us have him at 6.5 and still think he'll lose
    It just feels like we're all going to wake up on the 9th and look at each other, stunned as Donald takes the rust belt on the back of rare voters.
    If the ambiguous FBI statement hadn't been made would you be thinking this?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    tyson said:

    GeoffM said:

    Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.

    You think she's been good?
    Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
    Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.

    Trying to work out whether that is more condescending and patronising to Michelle or to women. The fluffy headed darlings have no idea how to act without someone to copy, but here's Michelle to demonstrate that marrying an important man is the trick.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    F1: pre-qualifying piece is here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2016.html

    In related news, I'm bloody perplexed as to why the visitor numbers are so high. Hundreds every day from a more usual single figures (double at race weekends).

    Have you considered adding Google Ads or similar to your sidebar? For that number of hits you'll get a very occasional but nonetheless welcome cheque from them every now and then.

    There are also some Blogger tools which might help you learn more about the sources of the traffic should you feel inclined to tinker under the hood.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited October 2016
    Mr. Sandpit, I'll try and see... (worth noting I have the technical aptitude of a potato).

    Edited extra bit: referring URLs show a few coming from the PB Vanilla forums and several odd single referral sites (like flowers to Russia).

    Edited extra bit 2: looks like almost all (1,200 of about 1,300) are Mac users in the US.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    PlatoSaid said:
    So you are still happy quoting from a source that provably lied about the contents of the Podesta e-mails?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. Sandpit, I'll try and see... (worth noting I have the technical aptitude of a potato).

    I'll try and PM you some details tomorrow, it's not technically difficult to do.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, cheers.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.

    Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.

    The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.

    I just don't see equivalence between Hillary not using proper email protocols and Trump's racism and sexual predatory.

    Some of the emails allegedly discussed the identities of agents operating undercover in hostile territory, that information was available to any foreign power with a half competent hacking team (ie. most of them) and will get people killed, although by the nature of their jobs we will never know who, where, or how many. It's rather surprising you cannot see the equivalence between sexual predatory acts and getting people killed.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    tyson said:

    GeoffM said:

    Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.

    You think she's been good?
    Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
    Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.

    #bringbackourgirls was such a success.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    So you are still happy quoting from a source that provably lied about the contents of the Podesta e-mails?
    Is that a typo for "probably"?

    Just asking for a lawyer friend.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.

    Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.

    The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.

    I just don't see equivalence between Hillary not using proper email protocols and Trump's racism and sexual predatory.

    Some of the emails allegedly discussed the identities of agents operating undercover in hostile territory, that information was available to any foreign power with a half competent hacking team (ie. most of them) and will get people killed, although by the nature of their jobs we will never know who, where, or how many. It's rather surprising you cannot see the equivalence between sexual predatory acts and getting people killed.
    Strange that the same people outraged at this are ebulient when Wikileaks and co put field agents in danger.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    GeoffM said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    So you are still happy quoting from a source that provably lied about the contents of the Podesta e-mails?
    Is that a typo for "probably"?

    Just asking for a lawyer friend.
    No, provably.

    They claim an email is an email from Hilary Clinton and link to it on Wikileaks. A quick look at the sender field shows it comes from a right wing Netherlands crank newsletter that spammed a whole host of email addresses. It wasn't even sent to Clinton never mind sent by her.
This discussion has been closed.