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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless the betting is wildly wrong Paul Nuttall looks set to b

SystemSystem Posts: 11,020
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless the betting is wildly wrong Paul Nuttall looks set to be UKIP’s next leader

The UKIP leadership race is down to four with Paul Nuttall the 1/4 odds-on favourite. It is hard to see anyone beating him.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

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    First ..... again!
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Second like Suzanne Evans.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Things just keep on getting better and better for Labour, don't they?
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    Fourth like Raheem Kassam
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    Fifth like UKIP
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Sixth like Lib Dems
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,445
    Nothing against Paul Nuttall - who in my view should have been the obvious choice when Nigel Farage resigned in 2015 - but: https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2014/10/19/14/ade-edmondson.jpg
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    Fpt

    Can any PBer fluent in Brexlish translate what 'foreign' means in this context?

    https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/792850419353608196

    Perhaps Mr Hannan can release categorised lists of nationalities by level of foreignness, just so we can prepare for our bright, new, internationalist future.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Fpt

    Can any PBer fluent in Brexlish translate what 'foreign' means in this context?

    https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/792850419353608196

    Perhaps Mr Hannan can release categorised lists of nationalities by level of foreignness, just so we can prepare for our bright, new, internationalist future.

    Obviously he means because its part of the Commonwealth, he will be rightly calling for free movement with Pakistan next.
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    MP_SE said:
    He looks more like a Harry Enfield character in that pic.
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    Essexit said:

    Second like Suzanne Evans.

    Second for Bony, 10 more to come please
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    Fpt
    Can any PBer fluent in Brexlish translate what 'foreign' means in this context?

    FPT:
    If only Hannan wasn't so reticent about committing his thoughts to print!

    let’s bow our heads for a moment at a centenary just past: that of the first major action by Canadian soldiers in the First World War.

    The Second Battle of Ypres, fought in April and May 1915, was monstrous even by the standards of the Western Front. It was the first time that the Germans used chlorine gas. The men of the 2nd Canadian Brigade alone held their position as the yellow-green clouds engulfed the troops around them. It did not take long for the venom to dissolve the Allied line, leaving heaps of dead and dying men, their faces mottled, froth on their tortured lips. Later, the Canadians were hit by a second gas attack; their casualty rate was one in three.

    Few Britons can talk of the Canadian war effort without a catch in their voice. The thought of those young men, every one a volunteer, crossing half the world to defend our country makes us emotional even a century later. Despite almost unimaginable fatalities — 67,000 Canadians killed and 250,000 wounded out of a total population of 7 million — the children of those veterans rushed to volunteer in the Second World War: a million men and women in all.

    What made them do it? Was it simply affinity of blood and speech, a determination to stand by a kindred people? Obviously that was part of the explanation. But I can’t believe it was the whole story — that the First and Second World Wars were ethnic conflicts, different only in scale from, say, the breakup of Yugoslavia or the Hutu-Tutsi massacres. Read the letters that those volunteers sent home, listen to contemporary accounts of the conflict, and you find a clear sense that people were fighting “for freedom.” The values of the English-speaking peoples were repeatedly contrasted against the enemy’s authoritarianism. We were better than the Prussians and the Nazis, we told ourselves, because we elevated the law above the government, the individual above the collective, fair dealing over raison d’état.

    But what made us that way? Was it something in our genes? Something in our soil? Hardly. The Anglosphere was dispersed across many continents and archipelagos. People of every creed and colour had adopted its values.

    So what was it? And what is it? What magic formula still distinguishes Bermuda from Haiti, Hong Kong from China, Canada from Cuba? The answer to that question brings us to the second centenary, that of Magna Carta, which first established the principle that the law was not simply the will of the king or the biggest guy in the tribe.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058
    edited October 2016
    nunu said:

    Fpt

    Can any PBer fluent in Brexlish translate what 'foreign' means in this context?

    https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/792850419353608196

    Perhaps Mr Hannan can release categorised lists of nationalities by level of foreignness, just so we can prepare for our bright, new, internationalist future.

    Obviously he means because its part of the Commonwealth, he will be rightly calling for free movement with Pakistan next.
    His Twitter banner pic makes it clear what he thinks. An embarrassingly ingratiating Anglosphere loony who thinks that we're part of the New World just because we speak English, or rather, because they do.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Checks into PB.

    Usual suspects whining about Tories/Brexit/the UK.

    Shakes head and wonders if habitual losers have a life.

    Checks out.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    Fpt

    Can any PBer fluent in Brexlish translate what 'foreign' means in this context?

    https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/792850419353608196

    Perhaps Mr Hannan can release categorised lists of nationalities by level of foreignness, just so we can prepare for our bright, new, internationalist future.

    Obviously he means because its part of the Commonwealth, he will be rightly calling for free movement with Pakistan next.
    His Twitter banner pic makes it clear what he thinks. An embarrassingly ingratiating Anglosphere loony who thinks that we're part of the New World just because we speak English, or rather, because they do.
    I wonder how many on here also agree with him tho, a worrying number I suspect.....
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Ironically because of UKIP's success re-Brexit, the party will be denied the pre-General Election boost it enjoyed from the Euro elections in 2009 and 2014.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Orgreave -- I've only skimmed the last thread but did not see anyone comment on what to me is the odd thing about the Home Secretary's announcement, which is that it had been spun that there would be an inquiry. The obvious question is what made Amber Rudd change her mind in the last day or so?
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    nunu said:

    Fpt

    Can any PBer fluent in Brexlish translate what 'foreign' means in this context?

    https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/792850419353608196

    Perhaps Mr Hannan can release categorised lists of nationalities by level of foreignness, just so we can prepare for our bright, new, internationalist future.

    Obviously he means because its part of the Commonwealth, he will be rightly calling for free movement with Pakistan next.

    Strange how Pakistan is missing from his flag mashup on his twitter page...
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Orgreave -- I've only skimmed the last thread but did not see anyone comment on what to me is the odd thing about the Home Secretary's announcement, which is that it had been spun that there would be an inquiry. The obvious question is what made Amber Rudd change her mind in the last day or so?

    It is an interesting question. Someone has overruled her methinks.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,215
    God, I'll be glad when the US election is finally over. What a dispiriting affair.
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    538.com this evening givesTrump a 24.4% chance in the POTUS stakes. IIRC this is almost twice the corresponding figure of one week ago. Should it double again over the next week then Tuesday 8 Nov. could prove to be very interesting.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,215

    538.com this evening givesTrump a 24.4% chance in the POTUS stakes. IIRC this is almost twice the corresponding figure of one week ago. Should it double again over the next week then Tuesday 8 Nov. could prove to be very interesting.

    Yep, I reckon it is double. Can't see it doubling again.
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    nunu said:

    Fpt

    Can any PBer fluent in Brexlish translate what 'foreign' means in this context?

    https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/792850419353608196

    Perhaps Mr Hannan can release categorised lists of nationalities by level of foreignness, just so we can prepare for our bright, new, internationalist future.

    Obviously he means because its part of the Commonwealth, he will be rightly calling for free movement with Pakistan next.
    Strange how Pakistan is missing from his flag mashup on his twitter page...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    Fpt

    Can any PBer fluent in Brexlish translate what 'foreign' means in this context?

    https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/792850419353608196

    Perhaps Mr Hannan can release categorised lists of nationalities by level of foreignness, just so we can prepare for our bright, new, internationalist future.

    Obviously he means because its part of the Commonwealth, he will be rightly calling for free movement with Pakistan next.
    Strange how Pakistan is missing from his flag mashup on his twitter page...

    That's the point.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Fpt:
    Jobabob said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pong said:

    tyson said:

    Pong said:

    Jobabob said:

    Roger said:

    OT. According to Channel 4 the UK has the fattest men in Europe and the second fattest women. No wonder our EU partners weren't sorry to see the back of us.

    I believe @AlastairMeeks shared some research that showed that tendency to vote Leave correlated with waistline - the fatter you were, the more likely to vote Leave. Bizarre but true, apparently.
    Older voters have larger waists and older voters broke quite heavily for leave.

    I suspect that's how the correlation (if true) works.

    http://image.slidesharecdn.com/pheobesityadultslideset-140219151004-phpapp01/95/uk-adult-obesity-data-9-638.jpg?cb=1392822770
    If we say that the first 18 years you are not allowed to vote whilst you are developing; it appears more than reasonable to say that for the last 18 years of predicted life you should be excluded to vote whilst your brain is turning to mush (over 65's should not be allowed to vote).

    I think pbCOM perfectly demonstrates why our oldies should be excluded from voting. You can almost see how old the poster is by the amount of drivel being spewed out. Obviously JackW would get an exemption just for posterity and all that....
    lol

    I'm generally more in favour of extending democracy than reducing it.

    The fact our system disenfranchises 16/17 year olds is a disgrace - as is having an electoral system which requires millions of young people without a settled address to jump through hoops to vote.
    I'd say it is far more of a disgrace how few registered youngsters actually vote. And I say this as a twenty something.

    The rules exist, they are piss easy to follow, and yet much of generation snowflake feels that moaning is more important than voting.
    How many of your immediate peer group share your lean Trump, or Brexit views?
    Not many pro Brexit - about 10%, and I don't lean Trump, I dread either winning but lean towards thinking Trump will.

    How many of your peer group share your penchant for disenfranchising people.
    I suspect given the choice you want Trump to win.
    Go on suspecting. Does it make you feel better?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280
    That is really quite unbelievable. Over 200 Labour MPs voted for that man to be on the Justice Committee? It's a sad, sick sense of humour that our masters have, right enough.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited October 2016
    UKIP's future does largely depend on there being at least a softish Brexit and limited immigration controls rather than the complete end to free movement hardcore Leavers demand. If that is the case Nuttall is probably best placed to capitalise. As OGH suggests they need to focus on FPTP and Westminster in particular as we are likely to be out of the EU by the time of the next European elections. Of their top 10 Westminster target seats 6 are in the Midlands or the North and 6 are held by Labour, Nuttall is likely to have more appeal there than Evans.

    The top UKIP targets are

    1.Thurrock
    2.Thanet South
    3.Hartlepool
    4.Boston and Skegness
    5.Heywood and Middleton
    6.Dagenham and Rainham
    7.Rochester and Strood
    8.Mansfield
    9.Great Grimsby
    10.Stoke-On-Trent North
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
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    Very worrying...

    Warning as hundreds of jailed terrorists back on UK streets
    http://news.sky.com/story/warning-as-hundreds-of-jailed-terrorists-back-on-uk-streets-10639848
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2016
    nunu said:

    That's the point.

    What point?

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    nunu said:

    Fpt

    Can any PBer fluent in Brexlish translate what 'foreign' means in this context?

    https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/792850419353608196

    Perhaps Mr Hannan can release categorised lists of nationalities by level of foreignness, just so we can prepare for our bright, new, internationalist future.

    Obviously he means because its part of the Commonwealth, he will be rightly calling for free movement with Pakistan next.
    Strange how Pakistan is missing from his flag mashup on his twitter page...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    Mortimer said:

    O/T - does anyone play peer to peer chess. I fancy the distraction but find playing computers dull...

    Not any more, but an app called ChessTime was what I used when I did - it's pretty decent.
    Thanks Mr Price.
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    DavidL said:

    That is really quite unbelievable. Over 200 Labour MPs voted for that man to be on the Justice Committee? It's a sad, sick sense of humour that our masters have, right enough.
    Lefties thinking that they are clean and pure just because they are lefties.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Orgreave -- I've only skimmed the last thread but did not see anyone comment on what to me is the odd thing about the Home Secretary's announcement, which is that it had been spun that there would be an inquiry. The obvious question is what made Amber Rudd change her mind in the last day or so?

    Labour couldn't be arsed over 13 years with massive majorities.

    Probably said heh...what's the point waste of time and money ( which would be correct)
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    538.com this evening givesTrump a 24.4% chance in the POTUS stakes. IIRC this is almost twice the corresponding figure of one week ago. Should it double again over the next week then Tuesday 8 Nov. could prove to be very interesting.

    Yep, I reckon it is double. Can't see it doubling again.
    Unlikley - unless there is a major shift - but he would have to turn Florida, North Carolina and Nevada red by about 1 1/2% to get there - which is about a 2.5% - 3% swing from where we are now. And even then he would need Colorado \/ Pennsylvania \/ Michigan \/ Wisconsin any of which are quite unlikley.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Disgraceful. And then politicians wonder why the public despise them.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Oh....

    BRING BACK THE GALLOWS Ukip leadership favourite Paul Nuttall says he would hold referendum on bringing back death penalty for child killers
    He said if 'enough people' signed a petition he would give the public their say on reintroducing capital punishment

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2087063/ukip-leadership-favourite-paul-nuttall-says-he-would-hold-referendum-on-bringing-back-death-penalty-for-child-killers/
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Very worrying...

    Warning as hundreds of jailed terrorists back on UK streets
    http://news.sky.com/story/warning-as-hundreds-of-jailed-terrorists-back-on-uk-streets-10639848

    We've dealt with that shit for years and hardly a soul raised an eyebrow.

    Off topic: Trump and the Russians.

    Vyacheslav Ivankov is a really interesting guy. Hung out a lot in Trump properties. Trumps debts to Russians who have links to the Kremlin, and the Russian mob many of whom also have links to the Kremlin, runs into hundreds of millions. One of the reasons for his tax return reluctance.

    That I suspect is the possibly predictable last turn of the news cycle wheel unless the FBI mysteriously leak every second of the current investigation. Predicting anything else coming out of the cracks is guesswork.
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    chestnut said:

    nunu said:

    That's the point.

    What point?

    Your checking out/flounce didn't last long.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Moses_ said:

    Orgreave -- I've only skimmed the last thread but did not see anyone comment on what to me is the odd thing about the Home Secretary's announcement, which is that it had been spun that there would be an inquiry. The obvious question is what made Amber Rudd change her mind in the last day or so?

    Labour couldn't be arsed over 13 years with massive majorities.

    Probably said heh...what's the point waste of time and money ( which would be correct)
    Perhaps true but that would not explain the sudden change in mood music. Did a minister from the time make a phone call, or a civil servant find something buried in the files, or ... tbh since there is no obvious connection with Brexit, it is hard to speculate. Maybe the weeklies or Sundays will have more information.
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    Moses_ said:

    Oh....

    BRING BACK THE GALLOWS Ukip leadership favourite Paul Nuttall says he would hold referendum on bringing back death penalty for child killers
    He said if 'enough people' signed a petition he would give the public their say on reintroducing capital punishment

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2087063/ukip-leadership-favourite-paul-nuttall-says-he-would-hold-referendum-on-bringing-back-death-penalty-for-child-killers/

    Oh f*** off.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    nunu said:

    That's the point.

    What point?

    Your checking out/flounce didn't last long.
    Can't recall putting a time on it. Still at it though, eh?

    All those Canadian tube bombers, and Canadian heritage Rotherham rapists under the microscope?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334
    DavidL said:

    That is really quite unbelievable. Over 200 Labour MPs voted for that man to be on the Justice Committee? It's a sad, sick sense of humour that our masters have, right enough.
    There's an element of personal sympathy there, I think - MPs dislike seeing one of their number pilloried when he hasn't been convicted of an offence, and they'll have felt that taking him off the chairmanship was punishment enough. That will also be why Tory MPs (who were entitled to vote on this as well) generally didn't vote at all (only 7 did).
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    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    nunu said:

    That's the point.

    What point?

    Your checking out/flounce didn't last long.
    Can't recall putting a time on it. Still at it though, eh?

    All those Canadian tube bombers, and Canadian heritage Rotherham rapists under the microscope?
    Why oh why aren't people discussing your favoured Muslamic hobby horse for the umpteenth time.
    Life's just not fair, eh?
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.
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    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Orgreave -- I've only skimmed the last thread but did not see anyone comment on what to me is the odd thing about the Home Secretary's announcement, which is that it had been spun that there would be an inquiry. The obvious question is what made Amber Rudd change her mind in the last day or so?

    Labour couldn't be arsed over 13 years with massive majorities.

    Probably said heh...what's the point waste of time and money ( which would be correct)
    Perhaps true but that would not explain the sudden change in mood music. Did a minister from the time make a phone call, or a civil servant find something buried in the files, or ... tbh since there is no obvious connection with Brexit, it is hard to speculate. Maybe the weeklies or Sundays will have more information.
    The Tories probably woke up to the fact that there was absolutely no upside for them, it would drag on for years with Fatcher Fatcher Fatcher at every turn and whatever the outcome they were going to get a real kicking.

    If there was genuine concern Labour could have and should have opened one. They didn't possibly because they thought they would receive the same fallout hence probably thought better to leave until the first born, baby eating pitch fork handlers were back in power.

    Perhaps this is one for Mr Vaz in his new role on the justice committee to break his duck?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited October 2016

    538.com this evening givesTrump a 24.4% chance in the POTUS stakes. IIRC this is almost twice the corresponding figure of one week ago. Should it double again over the next week then Tuesday 8 Nov. could prove to be very interesting.

    Yep, I reckon it is double. Can't see it doubling again.
    As of tonight RCP has Trump 3.1% behind nationally, he trails in Colorado by 4% and Pennsylvania by 5.2%, given those states are likely now to be the key swing states in determining who wins the Electoral College Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than actually win the Presidency

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Well there is one, Trumps association with indviduals linked to Alfa Bank is also known. A google search will tell you that.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,215
    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Floater said:

    new politics my arse

    Is that one of his chat up lines?
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    Wasn't Steven Woolfe the favourite a couple of weeks ago?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,215
    Reuters:

    "Stephen Vladeck, a professor at the University of Texas School of Law, said, "I would be surprised if this complaint leads to anything significant, but I would also be surprised if Comey's tenure as the FBI director will not be shortened." "

    You don't say. Day one, hour one of Clinton presidency: "pass me the FBI file".
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    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,215

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Wow!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964
    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    Is that even with Maine's congressional district?
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    SeanT said:


    Tell you what, you're in favour of referendums, as am I: so let's ask the British people to decide.

    You're allowed to choose Free Movement between the UK and three different sets of nations.

    The first is the EU, from Romania and Bulgaria to Belgium and France

    The second is the advanced English-speaking Commonwealth nations: Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

    The third is, ooh, let's say Pakistan, Argentina, and Indonesia.

    I wonder which the people would prefer? Job done.

    Asking British people to decide? That's not what they did in the EU referendum :) Non-British citizens of Australia, Canada, the Republic of Ireland, India and Pakistan who were living in Britain all had a vote. Shouldn't have, but did.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Alfa Bank is involved with a few of Trump's mates. The Carter Page association is notable. Richard Burt. And thats just Americans.

    The Trump Organisation's links to around 200 concerns in Russia seems quite high.

    The man is in Russia's pocket and is far over his head he has to go with it.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,215
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    Is that even with Maine's congressional district?
    I reckon with Maine 2 and all of Nebraska he gets 270.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    Y0kel said:

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Alfa Bank is involved with a few of Trump's mates. The Carter Page association is notable. Richard Burt. And thats just Americans.

    The Trump Organisation's links to around 200 concerns in Russia seems quite high.

    The man is in Russia's pocket and is far over his head he has to go with it.
    Just a new twist on the old line about capitalists selling the Russians the rope to hang them with, I suppose...
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    269 will be six more than Clinton gets if McMullin wins Utah. (Although I realise your 269 figure assumes Utah will go to Trump.)
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    SeanT said:

    We need to heal the nation, between the righteous, virile, heterosexual, upstanding patriots, such as me, and the vile, scuttling, treacherous, deeply personally unhygienic, deviant Remainers on PB, like foxinsox and TSE

    I suggest this essay is a good place to start

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    upstanding with chemical assistance, aye.

    the article loses all credibility at the lennon quote

    "Emile Durkheim was not a conservative, but as one of the founders of modern sociology he studied the forces that bound groups together and created communities in which individuals were willing to restrain themselves and live according to rules and norms. "

    aye and lennon was a bit of a tit who could write a good tune (but not as good as Paul :) ). so why not find someone suitable to present a counter argument instead?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Just watched bbc spoof on farage gets his life back...what utter shit. Piss poor imitation & Not funny at all.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited October 2016
    Dromedary said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    269 will be six more than Clinton gets if McMullin wins Utah. (Although I realise your 269 figure assumes Utah will go to Trump.)
    Assuming Trump wins Utah and got to 269 it would still go to the House of Representatives who might give it to Pence, Trump can only ensure he wins the Presidency if he gets over 270. McMullin winning Utah in that scenario would still see the House determine the winner.

    To win Trump therefore needs Colorado or Pennsylvania, New Hampshire would not be enough if he did not win one of the former too
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    Is that even with Maine's congressional district?
    You have to consider Nebraska's congressional district too which might cancel that out and Hillary has been leading in all districts of Maine in the latest polling
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,215
    HYUFD said:

    Dromedary said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    269 will be six more than Clinton gets if McMullin wins Utah. (Although I realise your 269 figure assumes Utah will go to Trump.)
    Assuming Trump wins Utah and got to 269 it would still go to the House of Representatives who might give it to Pence, Trump can only ensure he wins the Presidency if he gets over 270. McMullin winning Utah in that scenario would still see the House determine the winner.

    To win Trump therefore needs Colorado or Pennsylvania, New Hampshire would not be enough if he did not win one of the former too
    "And when I see the light
    I know I'll be all right.
    Philadelphia."

    Neil Young
  • Options

    Piss poor imitation & Not funny at all.

    That suggests a certain essence d'Farage..
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    Is that even with Maine's congressional district?
    You have to consider Nebraska's congressional district too which might cancel that out and Hillary has been leading in all districts of Maine in the latest polling
    Surely it's not going to be this tight? I'm not sure I could last the night...
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Slate is ridiculously biased and that article doesn't amount to much.
  • Options
    "I am running against a man who says he doesn't understand why we can't we use nuclear weapons."

    Clinton

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/email-scandal-looming-campaign-clinton-urges-supporters-distracted/story?id=43197702
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Slate is ridiculously biased and that article doesn't amount to much.
    Slate is not biased and the article is very important.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    HYUFD said:

    Dromedary said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    269 will be six more than Clinton gets if McMullin wins Utah. (Although I realise your 269 figure assumes Utah will go to Trump.)
    Assuming Trump wins Utah and got to 269 it would still go to the House of Representatives who might give it to Pence, Trump can only ensure he wins the Presidency if he gets over 270. McMullin winning Utah in that scenario would still see the House determine the winner.

    To win Trump therefore needs Colorado or Pennsylvania, New Hampshire would not be enough if he did not win one of the former too
    "And when I see the light
    I know I'll be all right.
    Philadelphia."

    Neil Young
    Trump is probably likely to be leading Pennsylvania for a while after polls close as rural and small town areas report first, so it may be a nervous few hours for Hillary supporters waiting to see if Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs have produced a big enough lead to overturn them
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058
    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Slate is ridiculously biased and that article doesn't amount to much.
    Slate is not biased and the article is very important.
    Not biased?

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/clinton_vs_trump_whose_crimes_are_worse.html
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dromedary said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    269 will be six more than Clinton gets if McMullin wins Utah. (Although I realise your 269 figure assumes Utah will go to Trump.)
    Assuming Trump wins Utah and got to 269 it would still go to the House of Representatives who might give it to Pence, Trump can only ensure he wins the Presidency if he gets over 270. McMullin winning Utah in that scenario would still see the House determine the winner.

    To win Trump therefore needs Colorado or Pennsylvania, New Hampshire would not be enough if he did not win one of the former too
    "And when I see the light
    I know I'll be all right.
    Philadelphia."

    Neil Young
    Trump is probably likely to be leading Pennsylvania for a while after polls close as rural and small town areas report first, so it may be a nervous few hours for Hillary supporters waiting to see if Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs have produced a big enough lead to overturn them
    Sounds like Neil had it right!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    Is that even with Maine's congressional district?
    You have to consider Nebraska's congressional district too which might cancel that out and Hillary has been leading in all districts of Maine in the latest polling
    Surely it's not going to be this tight? I'm not sure I could last the night...
    I have put a bet on the winner of the presidency (most probably Hillary) losing the popular vote, I think this election has the potential to be as close as 2000 now with neither candidate inspiring the average swing voter, although hopefully not so close we have weeks of hanging chads in suburban Pennsylvania!
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,810
    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Orgreave -- I've only skimmed the last thread but did not see anyone comment on what to me is the odd thing about the Home Secretary's announcement, which is that it had been spun that there would be an inquiry. The obvious question is what made Amber Rudd change her mind in the last day or so?

    Labour couldn't be arsed over 13 years with massive majorities.

    Probably said heh...what's the point waste of time and money ( which would be correct)
    Perhaps true but that would not explain the sudden change in mood music. Did a minister from the time make a phone call, or a civil servant find something buried in the files, or ... tbh since there is no obvious connection with Brexit, it is hard to speculate. Maybe the weeklies or Sundays will have more information.
    The Tories probably woke up to the fact that there was absolutely no upside for them, it would drag on for years with Fatcher Fatcher Fatcher at every turn and whatever the outcome they were going to get a real kicking.

    If there was genuine concern Labour could have and should have opened one. They didn't possibly because they thought they would receive the same fallout hence probably thought better to leave until the first born, baby eating pitch fork handlers were back in power.

    Perhaps this is one for Mr Vaz in his new role on the justice committee to break his duck?
    Thought for a while (not just today) that, if there is a good way of doing it, the calling and conduct of public enquiries should be put in the hands of an independent body. National Public Enquiry Service, anyone?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    edited November 2016
    [Deleted]
  • Options
    Pro_Rata said:

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Orgreave -- I've only skimmed the last thread but did not see anyone comment on what to me is the odd thing about the Home Secretary's announcement, which is that it had been spun that there would be an inquiry. The obvious question is what made Amber Rudd change her mind in the last day or so?

    Labour couldn't be arsed over 13 years with massive majorities.

    Probably said heh...what's the point waste of time and money ( which would be correct)
    Perhaps true but that would not explain the sudden change in mood music. Did a minister from the time make a phone call, or a civil servant find something buried in the files, or ... tbh since there is no obvious connection with Brexit, it is hard to speculate. Maybe the weeklies or Sundays will have more information.
    The Tories probably woke up to the fact that there was absolutely no upside for them, it would drag on for years with Fatcher Fatcher Fatcher at every turn and whatever the outcome they were going to get a real kicking.

    If there was genuine concern Labour could have and should have opened one. They didn't possibly because they thought they would receive the same fallout hence probably thought better to leave until the first born, baby eating pitch fork handlers were back in power.

    Perhaps this is one for Mr Vaz in his new role on the justice committee to break his duck?
    Thought for a while (not just today) that, if there is a good way of doing it, the calling and conduct of public enquiries should be put in the hands of an independent body. National Public Enquiry Service, anyone?
    I call for a full, judge-led inquiry into your proposal.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    edited November 2016

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Slate is ridiculously biased and that article doesn't amount to much.
    Slate is not biased and the article is very important.
    Not biased?

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/clinton_vs_trump_whose_crimes_are_worse.html
    You're suggesting that anyone who thinks Trump's behaviour is worse than Clinton's must be "biased"?

    Obviously you're prejudiced.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dromedary said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    269 will be six more than Clinton gets if McMullin wins Utah. (Although I realise your 269 figure assumes Utah will go to Trump.)
    Assuming Trump wins Utah and got to 269 it would still go to the House of Representatives who might give it to Pence, Trump can only ensure he wins the Presidency if he gets over 270. McMullin winning Utah in that scenario would still see the House determine the winner.

    To win Trump therefore needs Colorado or Pennsylvania, New Hampshire would not be enough if he did not win one of the former too
    "And when I see the light
    I know I'll be all right.
    Philadelphia."

    Neil Young
    Trump is probably likely to be leading Pennsylvania for a while after polls close as rural and small town areas report first, so it may be a nervous few hours for Hillary supporters waiting to see if Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs have produced a big enough lead to overturn them
    Sounds like Neil had it right!
    Yes, Philly will certainly be 'the light' for Hillary supporters on Tuesday week
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    Is that even with Maine's congressional district?
    You have to consider Nebraska's congressional district too which might cancel that out and Hillary has been leading in all districts of Maine in the latest polling
    Surely it's not going to be this tight? I'm not sure I could last the night...
    I have put a bet on the winner of the presidency (most probably Hillary) losing the popular vote, I think this election has the potential to be as close as 2000 now with neither candidate inspiring the average swing voter, although hopefully not so close we have weeks of hanging chads in suburban Pennsylvania!
    Better book 9th off work then.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Slate is ridiculously biased and that article doesn't amount to much.
    Slate is not biased and the article is very important.
    Not biased?

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/clinton_vs_trump_whose_crimes_are_worse.html
    You're suggesting that anyone who thinks Clinton's behaviour is worse than Trump's must be "biased"?

    Obviously you're prejudiced.
    No, I'm suggesting that any publication which suggests that the only black mark against Clinton is 'Poor email server management' is guilty of bias.

    As for the 'smoking gun': Multinational corporation has periodic communication of some form with a major bank in Russia. So what?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    Is that even with Maine's congressional district?
    You have to consider Nebraska's congressional district too which might cancel that out and Hillary has been leading in all districts of Maine in the latest polling
    Surely it's not going to be this tight? I'm not sure I could last the night...
    I have put a bet on the winner of the presidency (most probably Hillary) losing the popular vote ...
    I thought I detected a slight change of emphasis!

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    I think Trump may have to win either Michigan or Wisconsin to win the election.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    Is that even with Maine's congressional district?
    You have to consider Nebraska's congressional district too which might cancel that out and Hillary has been leading in all districts of Maine in the latest polling
    Surely it's not going to be this tight? I'm not sure I could last the night...
    I have put a bet on the winner of the presidency (most probably Hillary) losing the popular vote, I think this election has the potential to be as close as 2000 now with neither candidate inspiring the average swing voter, although hopefully not so close we have weeks of hanging chads in suburban Pennsylvania!
    Better book 9th off work then.
    If it is that close I think we can safely assume the result will not be known for days if not weeks, so can safely assume I can go to work and not miss too much!
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Slate is ridiculously biased and that article doesn't amount to much.
    Slate is not biased and the article is very important.
    Not biased?

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/clinton_vs_trump_whose_crimes_are_worse.html
    You're suggesting that anyone who thinks Clinton's behaviour is worse than Trump's must be "biased"?

    Obviously you're prejudiced.
    No, I'm suggesting that any publication which suggests that the only black mark against Clinton is 'Poor email server management' is guilty of bias.

    As for the 'smoking gun': Multinational corporation has periodic communication of some form with a major bank in Russia. So what?
    I'm suggesting that anyone who suggests that's all it was is guilty of bias.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    Is that even with Maine's congressional district?
    You have to consider Nebraska's congressional district too which might cancel that out and Hillary has been leading in all districts of Maine in the latest polling
    Surely it's not going to be this tight? I'm not sure I could last the night...
    I have put a bet on the winner of the presidency (most probably Hillary) losing the popular vote ...
    I thought I detected a slight change of emphasis!

    Of course Trump could still win the EC too but he would need about 1% more to be assured of that than he would be to win the popular vote based on the latest RCP national and state averages
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    I think Trump may have to win either Michigan or Wisconsin to win the election.
    Colorado and Pennsylvania are closer with RCP based on polling averages but you never know if he gets very high white working class turnout in Michigan that may be the key state
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Dromedary said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    269 will be six more than Clinton gets if McMullin wins Utah. (Although I realise your 269 figure assumes Utah will go to Trump.)
    Assuming Trump wins Utah and got to 269 it would still go to the House of Representatives who might give it to Pence, Trump can only ensure he wins the Presidency if he gets over 270. McMullin winning Utah in that scenario would still see the House determine the winner.
    If no-one gets 270 and McMullin wins Utah and his electors vote for him, then at least seven faithless electors would have to vote for Pence for him to be sure of being available as a choice in the HoR. Five would be too few, and I think even tying with McMullin on six would be insufficient. The 12th amendment:

    "from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President."
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Slate is ridiculously biased and that article doesn't amount to much.
    Slate is not biased and the article is very important.
    Not biased?

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/clinton_vs_trump_whose_crimes_are_worse.html
    You're suggesting that anyone who thinks Clinton's behaviour is worse than Trump's must be "biased"?

    Obviously you're prejudiced.
    No, I'm suggesting that any publication which suggests that the only black mark against Clinton is 'Poor email server management' is guilty of bias.

    As for the 'smoking gun': Multinational corporation has periodic communication of some form with a major bank in Russia. So what?
    I'm suggesting that anyone who suggests that's all it was is guilty of bias.
    A multinational organisation which is engaged in multiple real estate projects will have communications with all kinds of banks for various reasons. Why pick on this one? Because it's a very tenuous way of implying some kind of conspiracy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    Dromedary said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dromedary said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    269 will be six more than Clinton gets if McMullin wins Utah. (Although I realise your 269 figure assumes Utah will go to Trump.)
    Assuming Trump wins Utah and got to 269 it would still go to the House of Representatives who might give it to Pence, Trump can only ensure he wins the Presidency if he gets over 270. McMullin winning Utah in that scenario would still see the House determine the winner.
    If no-one gets 270 and McMullin wins Utah, then at least seven faithless electors would have to vote for Pence for him to be sure of being available as a choice in the HoR. Five would be too few, and I think even tying with McMullin on six would be insufficient. The 12th amendment:

    "from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President."
    There are probably enough Republican electors to do so but it would certainly be a long and complicated series of ballots if it got that far, goodnight
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    NH Clinton +7 - Uni of NH.

    That seems to block one of Trumpy's routes to ECV of 270

    Even if he won NH alongside Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and the rest of the Romney states Trump would only get to 269, he needs Pennsylvania or Colorado to get over 270, Colorado is closer in the RCP average than NH and Pennsylvania is also closer in recent polls.
    I think Trump may have to win either Michigan or Wisconsin to win the election.
    Interestingly, a poll by Mitchell Research, conducted entirely after the FBI's intervention in the election, shows Clinton's lead is unchanged since last Tuesday, at 6 points:
    http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/214738676-story
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump and the Russians , 2.

    Alfa Bank and the potentially strange transactional relationship and methods with the Trump Organisation

    Stuff seems to be floating to the surface at the moment. Proper stuff.

    Link?
    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/793208373235871744
    Intriguing....
    Slate is ridiculously biased and that article doesn't amount to much.
    Slate is not biased and the article is very important.
    Not biased?

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/clinton_vs_trump_whose_crimes_are_worse.html
    You're suggesting that anyone who thinks Clinton's behaviour is worse than Trump's must be "biased"?

    Obviously you're prejudiced.
    No, I'm suggesting that any publication which suggests that the only black mark against Clinton is 'Poor email server management' is guilty of bias.

    As for the 'smoking gun': Multinational corporation has periodic communication of some form with a major bank in Russia. So what?
    I'm suggesting that anyone who suggests that's all it was is guilty of bias.
    A multinational organisation which is engaged in multiple real estate projects will have communications with all kinds of banks for various reasons. Why pick on this one? Because it's a very tenuous way of implying some kind of conspiracy.
    But the suggestion is that a) the server has never been used for trumps real estate business b) the fact is it very limited & abnormal internet traffic for the supposed marketing business it is connected to.

    One thing that occurred to me of one possible explanation not detailed by the nerds investigating this is that some Russians have hacked into trump & that is what they are seeing in the weird traffic profiles.
This discussion has been closed.