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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just a week to go and it is going to be a very tense few days

In the past 48 hours, 91% of bets on the US Election have been on Trump. He's into 9/4. And we've already paid out on Hillary. Uh-oh. pic.twitter.com/pGEkHMbrF2

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MarkHopkins

1st

When Trump wins, it'll be a tense few years...

brokenwheel

FPT

williamglenn said:

Quite a turn up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sb92Zwfujb4

Just did some digging, that isn't the whole video and it's actually a bit different to how it has been edited. Matthews is actually criticizing Trump for not running the campaign like he started. I'd agree, it is almost like Trump deliberately threw the campaign. If he went half as strong on this as Matthews just did he'd win.

https://twitter.com/hardball/status/791795272254750720?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

SimonStClare

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

IanB2

Fourth

No.

HYUFD

I have a bet on the winner of the electoral college losing the presidency, though this time I think it could be the Democrat who ends up in the White House on a minority vote

MarqueeMark

Betfair...

It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

Scott_P

Interesting...

@JohnRentoul: A friend writes: "Orgreave and Leveson tossed overboard. What was it that Crosby said should happen in the run up to an election?"

jonny83

Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?

TheWhiteRabbit

SimonStClare said:

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?

brokenwheel

jonny83 said:

Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?

Who investigated the pardoning and what was the conclusion of that investigation?

I'm not sure the realease was authorised by Comey...

DavidL

Scott_P said:

Interesting...

@JohnRentoul: A friend writes: "Orgreave and Leveson tossed overboard. What was it that Crosby said should happen in the run up to an election?"

Mentioned this the other day. Also the dumping of the education bill. It's...interesting.

MarkHopkins

jonny83 said:

Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?

A warning to the Clintons that they know where the bodies are buried?

MarqueeMark

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SimonStClare said:

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?

Not if everyone puts their Paddy Power Clinton winnings on him!

Stark_Dawning

I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?

MarqueeMark

jonny83 said:

Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?

A shot across Obama's bows. Don't pardon this woman....

DavidL

Stark_Dawning said:

I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?

But Halloween is only once a year. Who wants to glow in the dark the rest of the time?

jonny83

brokenwheel said:

jonny83 said:

Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?

Who investigated the pardoning and what was the conclusion of that investigation?

I'm not sure the realease was authorised by Comey...

Looks like the investigation was closed in 2005. A FOI request has got it released by the looks of it.

Theuniondivvie

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SimonStClare said:

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?

Paddy Power stunting?

Surely not.

DavidL

Big swing in NC in the SurveyUSA poll. And Az. This is getting tight. Another 2% and it is game on. Gulp.

Pong

MarqueeMark said:

Betfair...

It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

The parallels are quite interesting.

The momentum is with trump right now - much like the momentum was with remain in the last week.

Will it be enough?

It wasn't for remain.

Barnesian

MarqueeMark said:

Betfair...

It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

If so, what does he do next?

FrancisUrquhart

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

foxinsoxuk

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Betfair...

It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

If so, what does he do next?

Trump winning would destroy the Republicans, quite possibly the rest of us!

MikeL

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

MarqueeMark

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Betfair...

It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

If so, what does he do next?

Can you imagine the ego of the man - didn't want to win, tried everything NOT to win, but his country called for him in their hour of need....

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

MarqueeMark

foxinsoxuk said:

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Betfair...

It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

If so, what does he do next?

Trump winning would destroy the Republicans, quite possibly the rest of us!

I'm not sure Trump winning would do as much damage to the Republicans as it would damage the Democrats if Hillary lost. I mean - if you can't beat Trump, what the hell do you do next?

FrancisUrquhart

MarqueeMark said:

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Betfair...

It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

If so, what does he do next?

Can you imagine the ego of the man - didn't want to win, tried everything NOT to win, but his country called for him in their hour of need....

It would be one hell of a reality show!

TheWhiteRabbit

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

DavidL

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Andrew

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.
And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

Early voting might be the thing that saves Clinton tbh.

Also, if Clinton gets Nevada+NH, and loses the other swing states ..... 269-269 :-)

foxinsoxuk

MarqueeMark said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Betfair...

It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

If so, what does he do next?

Trump winning would destroy the Republicans, quite possibly the rest of us!

I'm not sure Trump winning would do as much damage to the Republicans as it would damage the Democrats if Hillary lost. I mean - if you can't beat Trump, what the hell do you do next?

The Democrats can nominate any number of sensible folk in a few years time. The Republicans will however have to deliver Trumps policies, or fight them from Congess.

Whover wins next Tuesday loses the midterms, badly.

MarqueeMark

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....

Dadge

The narrative has turned against Clinton but (a) at least 25% of voting had already been done, so it's too late for some people to change their mind, and (b) emails shmemails - it's hard to believe that very many Clinton voters will switch to Trump over yet another story about emails. It will be harder for her to GOTV though.

peter_from_putney

Theuniondivvie said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SimonStClare said:

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?

Paddy Power stunting?

Surely not.

The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.

foxinsoxuk

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....

Urban warfare is rarely quick.

Luckyguy1983

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

We're surely always being told there isn't a head.

TheScreamingEagles

Interesting from YouGovUSA

https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572048740184076
https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572542141308928

DavidL

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....

Probably too soon but the mood music will be reasonably positive on the lead up to the election.

TheWhiteRabbit

peter_from_putney said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SimonStClare said:

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?

Paddy Power stunting?

Surely not.

The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.

I tried explaining to William Hill once that Trump was literally the only horse left in the race, but oh no, they said he hadn't won(!)

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting from YouGovUSA

Which given that 'going badly' is highly subjective might support the idea that there's been a shy Trump factor all along.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

foxinsoxuk

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting from YouGovUSA

Which given that 'going badly' is highly subjective might support the idea that there's been a shy Trump factor all along.

Though equally Shy Clintonites now...

Pulpstar

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

peter_from_putney

TheWhiteRabbit said:

peter_from_putney said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SimonStClare said:

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?

Paddy Power stunting?

Surely not.

The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.

I tried explaining to William Hill once that Trump was literally the only horse left in the race, but oh no, they said he hadn't won(!)

I suppose he could have quit or in fact croaked for that matter - of course much depends on what the rules state in each particular market, although as we have seen in the past, sometimes these are very poorly written.

FrancisUrquhart

Four people were injured when a car mounted a pavement and ploughed into a group of pedestrians.

A woman was seriously injured in the hit and run in Humberstone Gate, Leicester, shortly before 17:00 GMT, police said. Eyewitnesses told the BBC they saw a car with a smashed windscreen being driven "erratically" after the crash.

Others said the car appeared to have been deliberately driven at the group of pedestrians.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-37841829

Jobabob

peter_from_putney said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SimonStClare said:

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?

Paddy Power stunting?

Surely not.

The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.

PP are like that too, in some cases. I had to wait until the 2015 election itself for them to pay out on the "will be contested on 650 seats" bet despite the fact the boundary changes had been spiked by the LDs in parliament months (years?) before.

Pong

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Quick, William Hill...!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/north-carolina

tyson

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not.

williamglenn

foxinsoxuk said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting from YouGovUSA

Which given that 'going badly' is highly subjective might support the idea that there's been a shy Trump factor all along.

Though equally Shy Clintonites now...

I'm sure when the results are in there will be plenty of "we always knew we were losing/winning" stories from both campaigns.

TheKitchenCabinet

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting from YouGovUSA

https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572048740184076
https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572542141308928

So Trump supporters would have been not participating in polls then for what, the past month?

TheScreamingEagles

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not.

Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not, but my bank balance is at least.

peter_from_putney

Jobabob said:

peter_from_putney said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SimonStClare said:

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?

Paddy Power stunting?

Surely not.

The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.

PP are like that too, in some cases. I had to wait until the 2015 election itself for them to pay out on the "will be contested on 650 seats" bet despite the fact the boundary changes had been spiked by the LDs in parliament months (years?) before.

I'm afraid that PP historically have a poor record for paying out on their "special" bets - it seems they get stuffed in a drawer and conveniently forgotten about. There have been two or three occasions when I have had to chase PP for payment weeks after the event. If they can't handle these types of bets they shouldn't offer them in the first place.

Jobabob

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Something like this?

http://www.270towin.com/maps/ZgK6V

Cohn throws a spanner in the works by handing NC to Hillary. But, like you, I am sceptical of that.

TheScreamingEagles

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not, but my bank balance is at least.

I'm using my Trump winnings to build a nuclear fallout shelter

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/793579160845385728

But, you know, sovereignty and that...

Jobabob

TheKitchenCabinet said:

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.

Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not.

Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.

He can still make a real mess of the world all on his own if he puts his mind to it. Fortunately for Americans what you say is right as far as domestic legislation is concerned but he still has the ability to make a real mess of international relations with little or no control from Congress.

peter_from_putney

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting from YouGovUSA

https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572048740184076
https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572542141308928

So Trump supporters would have been not participating in polls then for what, the past month?

Is that pollster-speak for being wise after the event ...... i can't remember YouGov having raised these aspects previously.

TheKitchenCabinet

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.

Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!

Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!

Jobabob

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

Chris

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

I think it refers to an alleged reward in Paradise.

619

On NC, AA is down due to the reduction in early voting places. More are opening up soon, so may be more votes coming in

The polls with NC leads for clinton has her leading in those who voted early

MP_SE

A Duterte vs Trump slanging match would be something to behold.

MarqueeMark

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

He means their promised virgins.....

foxinsoxuk

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

A reference to 72 virgins methinks!

Jobabob

peter_from_putney said:

Jobabob said:

peter_from_putney said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SimonStClare said:

Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

Oops..

Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?

Paddy Power stunting?

Surely not.

The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.

PP are like that too, in some cases. I had to wait until the 2015 election itself for them to pay out on the "will be contested on 650 seats" bet despite the fact the boundary changes had been spiked by the LDs in parliament months (years?) before.

I'm afraid that PP historically have a poor record for paying out on their "special" bets - it seems they get stuffed in a drawer and conveniently forgotten about. There have been two or three occasions when I have had to chase PP for payment weeks after the event. If they can't handle these types of bets they shouldn't offer them in the first place.

Yes, I had to ring them up three times and explain the bet back to them, then explain why they now needed to pay out. They thought about it, refused, and waited until after the election itself before they eventually coughed up.

Richard_Nabavi

peter_from_putney said:

Is that pollster-speak for being wise after the event ...... i can't remember YouGov having raised these aspects previously.

They have made that point before - for example, in the 2012 US election when Romney did better than expected in the first debate, there was exactly that effect of Romney supporters become more eager to respond to the poll and Obama supporters less eager, causing a temporary (and ultimately misleading) narrowing of the Obama lead. It's probably an effect which shows up more in online polls than telephone polls.

Edit: Of course, since voting has already started, it might also be an effect which shows up in the propensity to actually vote.

TheKitchenCabinet

619 said:

On NC, AA is down due to the reduction in early voting places. More are opening up soon, so may be more votes coming in

The polls with NC leads for clinton has her leading in those who voted early

But she has lost so much ground already - you would have to see the AA percentages massively outperform 2012 levels for her to recover just what has been lost.

My tip for state bets has been to go for those states where the Democrats need 2008/2012 AA style turnouts to overcome Republican leads. Given AA turnout so far, very happy to stick with that view.

Chris

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.

Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!

The weakness of Cohn's analysis is that it depends on a voting intention poll which even before the FBI intervention was on the favourable side for Clinton. On the other hand, it should be accounting properly for turnout differences between demographic groups.

FrancisUrquhart

For those of us who like our number crunching and mathematical models...

https://twitter.com/MATLAB/status/793448819023224833

Jobabob

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.

Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!

Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!

Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.

Dromedary

DavidL said:

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....

Probably too soon but the mood music will be reasonably positive on the lead up to the election.

If you're saying what I think you are, you've got it very wrong. The attack on Mosul has been a complete f***-up. They say they were completely unprepared for the scale of the resistance, taken unaware by the use of tens of thousands of human shields, and oh dear, will the Iranian-backed Shiites start massacring Sunnis? And what on earth will the Turks do to the Kurds? And generally speaking, "HELP". They look like idiots compared to the Russians. As for heads on spikes, any such disgusting propaganda in the next few days is likely to be by Daesh itself, successfully conveying the message that the US military strategy in the area is an utter crock, which is exactly what Trump is saying. This isn't Baghdad in 2003. Apocalypse is breakfast, lunch and dinner to Daesh. You saw at the Bataclan theatre and on the Nice promenade that they relish murdering the innocent, to show how vicious they are. Mongol forces waged psychological war that was similar. There could be attacks by Daesh elsewhere too. Mosul is terrible news for Clinton.

FrancisUrquhart

Dromedary said:

DavidL said:

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....

Probably too soon but the mood music will be reasonably positive on the lead up to the election.

If you're saying what I think you are, you've got it very wrong. The attack on Mosul has been a complete f***-up. They say they were completely unprepared for the scale of the resistance, taken unaware by the use of tens of thousands of human shields, and oh dear, will the Iranian-backed Shiites start massacring Sunnis? And what on earth will the Turks do to the Kurds? And generally speaking, "HELP". They look like idiots compared to the Russians. As for heads on spikes, any such disgusting propaganda in the next few days is likely to be by Daesh itself, successfully conveying the message that the US military strategy in the area is an utter crock, which is exactly what Trump is saying. This isn't Baghdad in 2003. Apocalypse is breakfast, lunch and dinner to Daesh. There could be attacks by Daesh elsewhere too. Mosul is terrible news for Clinton.

Link?

Jobabob

foxinsoxuk said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

A reference to 72 virgins methinks!

Oh I see! I assumed David moonlighted as a relationships counsellor and had miscued a copy and paste!

Pulpstar

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.

Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!

Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!

Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.

Sky Bet are 6-4, Hills are theoretically 13-8 but their site is down.

Ladbrokes are 5-6 the pair - which is where I'd imagine all the others will be in half an hour or so.

MikeK

RCP says that overall Clinton still has a slight edge but the momentum is with Trump.
OGH is right in that today at WH, the betting was on a Trump victory, with my £100 bet on trump at 5/2 confirmed by Rosie.

tyson

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not.

Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.

He can still make a real mess of the world all on his own if he puts his mind to it. Fortunately for Americans what you say is right as far as domestic legislation is concerned but he still has the ability to make a real mess of international relations with little or no control from Congress.

How the hell Richard could people like you and me become so divergent over Brexit?

foxinsoxuk

Dromedary said:

DavidL said:

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....

Probably too soon but the mood music will be reasonably positive on the lead up to the election.

If you're saying what I think you are, you've got it very wrong. The attack on Mosul has been a complete f***-up. They say they were completely unprepared for the scale of the resistance, taken unaware by the use of tens of thousands of human shields, and oh dear, will the Iranian-backed Shiites start massacring Sunnis? And what on earth will the Turks do to the Kurds? And generally speaking, "HELP". They look like idiots compared to the Russians. As for heads on spikes, any such disgusting propaganda in the next few days is likely to be by Daesh itself, successfully conveying the message that the US military strategy in the area is an utter crock, which is exactly what Trump is saying. This isn't Baghdad in 2003. Apocalypse is breakfast, lunch and dinner to Daesh. You saw at the Bataclan theatre and on the Nice promenade that they relish murdering the innocent, to show how vicious they are. Mongol forces waged psychological war that was similar. There could be attacks by Daesh elsewhere too. Mosul is terrible news for Clinton.

I think it will be neither. A grinding down and bloody house to house battle,and not quick.

DavidL

foxinsoxuk said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

A reference to 72 virgins methinks!

Well I am glad someone got the reference. Hey ho.

williamglenn

Trump in Wisconsin tonight. Trying to expand the map.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cxw0HrFf00

TheKitchenCabinet

Pulpstar said:

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.

Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!

Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!

Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.

Sky Bet are 6-4, Hills are theoretically 13-8 but their site is down.

Ladbrokes are 5-6 the pair - which is where I'd imagine all the others will be in half an hour or so.

Got 6/5 with PP but bet limited to £114. Boo!!

peter_from_putney

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.

Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!

Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!

Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.

If that's your view then should perhaps consider Laddies' Clinton's Firewall Finder and a possible 25/1 shot which I referred to on the previous thread.

MP_SE

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

A reference to 72 virgins methinks!

Well I am glad someone got the reference. Hey ho.

I got the reference. I found it quite amusing.

DavidL

Jobabob said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

A reference to 72 virgins methinks!

Oh I see! I assumed David moonlighted as a relationships counsellor and had miscued a copy and paste!

LOL. Sounds more fun than being a lawyer.

Jobabob

tyson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not.

Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.

He can still make a real mess of the world all on his own if he puts his mind to it. Fortunately for Americans what you say is right as far as domestic legislation is concerned but he still has the ability to make a real mess of international relations with little or no control from Congress.

How the hell Richard could people like you and me become so divergent over Brexit?

Richard is almost sui generis - a libertarian, internationalist, anti-racist, Democrat-supporting pro free market, pro Scottish nationalist, anti capital punishment, intellectual, evangelical atheist Brexiteer!

Jobabob

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

A reference to 72 virgins methinks!

Well I am glad someone got the reference. Hey ho.

Apologies David!

foxinsoxuk

peter_from_putney said:

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Jobabob said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

MikeL said:

FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.

Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!

Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!

Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.

If that's your view then should perhaps consider Laddies' Clinton's Firewall Finder and a possible 25/1 shot which I referred to on the previous thread.

I put a bit on that. Well spotted!

williamglenn

The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

Jobabob

DavidL said:

Jobabob said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

A reference to 72 virgins methinks!

Oh I see! I assumed David moonlighted as a relationships counsellor and had miscued a copy and paste!

LOL. Sounds more fun than being a lawyer.

DavidL said:

Jobabob said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

Agree.

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.

snip

On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.

Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?

A reference to 72 virgins methinks!

Oh I see! I assumed David moonlighted as a relationships counsellor and had miscued a copy and paste!

LOL. Sounds more fun than being a lawyer.

There is always the option of evening shifts...

peter_from_putney

williamglenn said:

The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

An extraordinary statement from someone you'd imagine would be a strong supporter.

foxinsoxuk

williamglenn said:

The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

Barak Obama in Florida and NC for the rest of the week.

Bernie is doing the Midwest.

https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

Jobabob

williamglenn said:

The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

For clarify, bettors note that this story relates to Florida only. These omissions are becoming irritating. We had a poster earlier in the week post up data from a poll, giving the impression that it was a national survey. The poll was an Indiana state poll.

Jobabob

peter_from_putney said:

williamglenn said:

The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

An extraordinary statement from someone you'd imagine would be a strong supporter.

A statement that applies only to the situation in FL. The OP failed to mention that.

JennyFreeman

williamglenn said:

Trump in Wisconsin tonight. Trying to expand the map.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cxw0HrFf00

We might, just might, be heading for President Trump.

My oh my what a political year.

tyson

Jobabob said:

tyson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not.

Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.

He can still make a real mess of the world all on his own if he puts his mind to it. Fortunately for Americans what you say is right as far as domestic legislation is concerned but he still has the ability to make a real mess of international relations with little or no control from Congress.

How the hell Richard could people like you and me become so divergent over Brexit?

Richard is almost sui generis - a libertarian, internationalist, anti-racist, Democrat-supporting pro free market, pro Scottish nationalist, anti capital punishment, intellectual, evangelical atheist Brexiteer!

Jobabob...apart from Brexit...that is me, and I guess that is you too, and people like Fox (maybe not quite atheist)....so how come we can come so far apart on Brexit. I don't get it.

I feel a natural affinity to libertarians more so than any other political philosophy. I really do not like Corbyn's hamfisted, socialism

taffys

''I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?''

Spot on. People who rave about Trump doing this or that clearly know zero about the US constitution, specifically designed and tested for separation of powers.