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Its not been a good day for Theresa May. The decision on Article 50, if upheld by the Supreme Court next month, completely undermines her strategy for dealing with EU extraction. She’s going to find it much harder to follow her Home Office practice of keeping things very much to her close advisors without involving other people.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

Sunil_Prasannan

Will Labour be frit?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/primlystable/status/794142032268759040

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Sunil_Prasannan

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/primlystable/status/794142032268759040

LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%

RobD

Glorious sixth!

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

Which surprise policy announcement from Corbyn will swing the polls?

logical_song

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

MarqueeMark

But really, how much internal party pressure is Theresa May under? I'd heard her election to leader got a significant amount of backing from MPs on the specific understanding that she wouldn't go for an early election.

RobD

Point of order, did anyone actually say during the referendum that they was about bringing sovreignty back to Parliament in particular?

chestnut

An election would go a long way to purging parliament of it's vast over-representation of Remainers.

williamglenn

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

That's quite astonishing. You'd have to assume a large part of the Green vote is there for the taking by the Lib Dems in a national election.

rottenborough

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

Which surprise policy announcement from Corbyn will swing the polls?

Owls?

Alistair

RobD said:

Point of order, did anyone actually say during the referendum that they was about bringing sovreignty back to Parliament in particular?

Hannan, in between okaying ads about immigration. In private meetings.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

SimonStClare

you say 'ever never' I say 'never ever' - lets call the whole thing off...

logical_song

williamglenn said:

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

That's quite astonishing. You'd have to assume a large part of the Green vote is there for the taking by the Lib Dems in a national election.

Challenging Labour for 2nd?

Sunil_Prasannan

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

Changes? Last poll?

Pulpstar

MarqueeMark said:

But really, how much internal party pressure is Theresa May under? I'd heard her election to leader got a significant amount of backing from MPs on the specific understanding that she wouldn't go for an early election.

What would any of the MPs have to fear from an election at the moment ?

Kevin for one would completely romp home.

TheScreamingEagles

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

Which surprise policy announcement from Corbyn will swing the polls?

True, McDonnell and Corbyn are no Osborne & Cameron.

Scott_P

RobD said:

Point of order, did anyone actually say during the referendum that they was about bringing sovreignty back to Parliament in particular?

Yer man, BoZo

https://www.headoflegal.com/2016/03/07/what-boris-told-us-about-the-sovereignty-plan/

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

Changes? Last poll?

Note it's a non-standard VI question.

williamglenn

logical_song said:

williamglenn said:

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

That's quite astonishing. You'd have to assume a large part of the Green vote is there for the taking by the Lib Dems in a national election.

Challenging Labour for 2nd?

Forget my comment - I misinterpreted the numbers.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, May's done nothing to encourage speculation of an early election.

TheWhiteRabbit

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

Changes? Last poll?

Note it's a non-standard VI question.

That's not much more than 100% which intrigues me. I would have though that plenty of people would have two possibles, whether for locals/Euros/national elections, some three or even four.

Morris_Dancer

F1: as expected, Stroll will be Bottas' team mate at Williams next year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37860557

RobD

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

Point of order, did anyone actually say during the referendum that they was about bringing sovreignty back to Parliament in particular?

Yer man, BoZo

https://www.headoflegal.com/2016/03/07/what-boris-told-us-about-the-sovereignty-plan/

Gawd, him and his big gob.

justin124

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Will Labour be frit?

They have good reason to be at the moment ! I would expect them to do everything to block it.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/794220149398208512

surbiton

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

Adds upto 147%

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/794220149398208512

Looking at the pictures in those tweets, I could not help but envisage OGH with Brian Blessed's hair and beard.

Now, if only I was any good with Photoshop ...

Pulpstar

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

Adds up to 147%

Good spot, it shows that on average a voter would "consider" roughly 1.47 parties.

RobD

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

Adds upto 147%

Because people would consider voting for more than one party.. swing voters.

DeClare

If the appeal fails, call a motion in the House of Commons giving the government the authority to trigger article 50 'sometime in the next 12 Months'
Make it a three line whip and a motion of confidence, if it fails someone else has 7 days to form a new government, which they won't be able to do and there is a second vote, if that fails there is a General Election probably in April 2017.
Labour under Corbyn will lose 40 seats, the SNP will also lose some, UKIP will only stand against remaindermen.
There might be a small number of gains for the Lib/Dems but there will be a large Tory majority with some remaindermen gone.
Brexit will be in the manifesto and as a bill in the first Queens speech, the government will ask again for authority to trigger article 50 and then it's bye bye EU.

RobD

DeClare said:

If the appeal fails, call a motion in the House of Commons giving the government the authority to trigger article 50 'sometime in the next 12 Months'
Make it a three line whip and a motion of confidence, if it fails someone else has 7 days to form a new government, which they won't be able to do and there is a second vote, if that fails there is a General Election probably in April 2017.
Labour under Corbyn will lose 40 seats, the SNP will also lose some, UKIP will only stand against remaindermen.
There might be a small number of gains for the Lib/Dems but there will be a large Tory majority with some remaindermen gone.
Brexit will be in the manifesto and as a bill in the first Queens speech, the government will ask again for authority to trigger article 50 and then it's bye bye EU.

It can't be a motion, it has to be a bill, which means going through all the hoops.

MarkHopkins

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/794220149398208512

Mike Smithson
‏@MSmithsonPB

Can the moaning leavers tell us which other of our statutory rights the PM should be able to abolish without going through parliament?

The ones on which a specific referendum has been held.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

Trump will win Arkansas easily, along with West Virginia, Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee, which were all carried twice by Clinton.

I'd try Alaska as a long shot. Trump will very likely win, but his popularity lags way behind the incumbent Senator.

taffys

Voters could be forgiven for looking at today and concluding the only way to get Brexit is to vote UKIP.

And that is dangerous for some major parties, methinks.

TudorRose

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

Changes? Last poll?

Note it's a non-standard VI question.

That's not much more than 100% which intrigues me. I would have though that plenty of people would have two possibles, whether for locals/Euros/national elections, some three or even four.

But it doesn't tell you how many said 'no-one'!

williamglenn

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/794220149398208512

Mike Smithson
‏@MSmithsonPB

Can the moaning leavers tell us which other of our statutory rights the PM should be able to abolish without going through parliament?

The ones on which a specific referendum has been held.

None of the specific terms of Brexit or our current EU membership have been put to a referendum.

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

I think I'd put your Clinton wins Arkansas bet down as "not close and no cigar" ....

JosiasJessop

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/794220149398208512

Mike Smithson
‏@MSmithsonPB

Can the moaning leavers tell us which other of our statutory rights the PM should be able to abolish without going through parliament?

The ones on which a specific referendum has been held.

Even if it is clear in the legislation for the referendum that it is not legally binding?

peter_from_putney

O/T
A fairly shocking dip in the spreads for Hillary over the past hour with her price now at 285 - 295, down 7 ECVs. Trump's spread has risen correspondingly to 241 - 251.
Therefore at their respective mid-spread points they are now just 44 ECVs apart (290 vs 246). At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

williamglenn

taffys said:

Voters could be forgiven for looking at today and concluding the only way to get Brexit is to vote UKIP.

And that is dangerous for some major parties, methinks.

It's as dangerous for ardent Leavers to assume that people's GE vote will be motivated by their opinion of Brexit as it is for Remainers.

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/primlystable/status/794142032268759040

Brexiteers don't do logic. That's a discipline for experts

Luckyguy1983

Judiciary in tying things up in yards of red tape NON SHOCK. Sigh.

foxinsoxuk

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

I think I'd put your Clinton wins Arkansas bet down as "not close and no cigar" ....

I did not have financial relations with that wager!

nunu

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

I think I'd put your Clinton wins Arkansas bet down as "not close and no cigar" ....

Alaska is a better long shot for her only one two thirds white.

justin124

DeClare said:

If the appeal fails, call a motion in the House of Commons giving the government the authority to trigger article 50 'sometime in the next 12 Months'
Make it a three line whip and a motion of confidence, if it fails someone else has 7 days to form a new government, which they won't be able to do and there is a second vote, if that fails there is a General Election probably in April 2017.
Labour under Corbyn will lose 40 seats, the SNP will also lose some, UKIP will only stand against remaindermen.
There might be a small number of gains for the Lib/Dems but there will be a large Tory majority with some remaindermen gone.
Brexit will be in the manifesto and as a bill in the first Queens speech, the government will ask again for authority to trigger article 50 and then it's bye bye EU.

On the basis of today's YouGov Labour would lose circa 30seats. On balance I would expect the Tory lead to narrow in a campaign.

AnneJGP

peter_from_putney said:

O/T
A fairly shocking dip in the spreads for Hillary over the past hour with her price now at 285 - 295, down 7 ECVs. Trump's spread has risen correspondingly to 241 - 251.
Therefore at their respective mid-spread points they are now just 44 ECVs apart (290 vs 246). At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

I don't know how people have the courage to engage in spread betting. What I've read about it on here is enough to frighten me!

Tissue_Price

Nice, if self-aggrandising, chart showing the different models out there:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794220355132989441

williamglenn

peter_from_putney said:

At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

He's a fighter not a quitter. When you look back to his position before the second debate when most of the Republican party and the media turned on him, to be where he is now is incredible.

SimonStClare

peter_from_putney said:

O/T
A fairly shocking dip in the spreads for Hillary over the past hour with her price now at 285 - 295, down 7 ECVs. Trump's spread has risen correspondingly to 241 - 251.
Therefore at their respective mid-spread points they are now just 44 ECVs apart (290 vs 246). At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

Any day that does not reveal a new FBI investigation, must surely be a good day for Clinton!

peter_from_putney

Pulpstar said:

MarqueeMark said:

But really, how much internal party pressure is Theresa May under? I'd heard her election to leader got a significant amount of backing from MPs on the specific understanding that she wouldn't go for an early election.

What would any of the MPs have to fear from an election at the moment ?

Kevin for one would completely romp home.

On the contrary, with boundary changes deferred yet again, they could then look forward to a fresh full 5 year term in the HoC.

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

O/T
A fairly shocking dip in the spreads for Hillary over the past hour with her price now at 285 - 295, down 7 ECVs. Trump's spread has risen correspondingly to 241 - 251.
Therefore at their respective mid-spread points they are now just 44 ECVs apart (290 vs 246). At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

Unthinkable to buyers of Hillary on the spreads most certainly !

JackW

As if by magic for TSE ...

Arkansas - Uni of Arkansas - Sample 585 - 18-27 Oct

Clinton 31 .. Trump 51

https://fulbright.uark.edu/departments/political-science/partners/arkpoll/2016/2016-Arkansas-Poll-summary-report.pdf

foxinsoxuk

williamglenn said:

logical_song said:

Just noticed this:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Oct 30
% of UK voters who'd consider voting for (X):
CON: 39%
LAB: 31%
LDEM: 21%
GRN: 18%
UKIP: 18%
SNP: 6%
PC: 3%
[Unsure]: 11%
(via YouGov)

Good for LibDem and Green.

That's quite astonishing. You'd have to assume a large part of the Green vote is there for the taking by the Lib Dems in a national election.

More accurately there must be potential for significant Green/LD/Lab tactical voting.

JackW

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

I think I'd put your Clinton wins Arkansas bet down as "not close and no cigar" ....

I did not have financial relations with that wager!

Chortle ....

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

I think I'd put your Clinton wins Arkansas bet down as "not close and no cigar" ....

That's what they all said when I backed Clinton to win Texas at 16/1

Now she's as low as 11/2

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

I think I'd put your Clinton wins Arkansas bet down as "not close and no cigar" ....

That's what they said when I backed Clinton to win Texas at 16/1

Now she's as low as 11/2

11-2 looks to me like the muggiest punt since muggers saw Muggy McMugface at the Mucksville Muck fayre.

nunu

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

Trump will win Arkansas easily, along with West Virginia, Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee, which were all carried twice by Clinton.

I'd try Alaska as a long shot. Trump will very likely win, but his popularity lags way behind the incumbent Senator.

Snap!

foxinsoxuk

AnneJGP said:

peter_from_putney said:

O/T
A fairly shocking dip in the spreads for Hillary over the past hour with her price now at 285 - 295, down 7 ECVs. Trump's spread has risen correspondingly to 241 - 251.
Therefore at their respective mid-spread points they are now just 44 ECVs apart (290 vs 246). At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

I don't know how people have the courage to engage in spread betting. What I've read about it on here is enough to frighten me!

I have bought HC at 295 but only for 50p.

The stop/loss is 200, so maximal loss of £100. It is pretty highly geared.

rottenborough

nunu said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Mrs May will do a Gordon Brown and bottle it.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855759

Democrats at 33-1 and 39-1 for you on Betfair (I think its a horrible bet personally)

Cheers, I've been asked to come up with a long shot bet.

And I went for Arkansas on the basis of the GOP voters not turning out, and the fact the Clintons were popular in the State.

AA population too.

Last Dem to carry Arkansas was a Clinton

Trump will win Arkansas easily, along with West Virginia, Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee, which were all carried twice by Clinton.

I'd try Alaska as a long shot. Trump will very likely win, but his popularity lags way behind the incumbent Senator.

Snap!

I have a small wager on Alaska falling to Dems.

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

As if by magic for TSE ...

Arkansas - Uni of Arkansas - Sample 585 - 18-27 Oct

Clinton 31 .. Trump 51

https://fulbright.uark.edu/departments/political-science/partners/arkpoll/2016/2016-Arkansas-Poll-summary-report.pdf

Clearly a rogue poll

CD13

The Labour tactic is to delay things as much as possible, argue and put up amendments, then complain that the final bill is unacceptable to the British people so they're reluctantly having to vote against.

That will give the Labour MPs the ability to go to their constituents and say ... "We wanted to vote Yes, but look at subsection (b) - it would be terrible for this constituency. That's the only reason I voted No."

It's playtime politics ... "Those awful Tories made me do it."

Pulpstar

foxinsoxuk said:

AnneJGP said:

peter_from_putney said:

O/T
A fairly shocking dip in the spreads for Hillary over the past hour with her price now at 285 - 295, down 7 ECVs. Trump's spread has risen correspondingly to 241 - 251.
Therefore at their respective mid-spread points they are now just 44 ECVs apart (290 vs 246). At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

I don't know how people have the courage to engage in spread betting. What I've read about it on here is enough to frighten me!

I have bought HC at 295 but only for 50p.

The stop/loss is 200, so maximal loss of £100. It is pretty highly geared.

How did you get the stop/loss in there ?

Scott_P

Meanwhile at Holyrood...

@BBCPhilipSim: So the headline is, council tax bands E-H are going up. The sub-plot is that govt had to vote for order noting "regret" at their strategy...

After the defeat yesterday too

RobD

Tissue_Price said:

Nice, if self-aggrandising, chart showing the different models out there:

twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794220355132989441

I assume there's some basis for their locations?

JackW

National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 1,200 - 31 Oct - 2 Nov

Clinton 44 .. Trump 39

https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/

Pulpstar

Scott_P said:

Meanwhile at Holyrood...

@BBCPhilipSim: So the headline is, council tax bands E-H are going up. The sub-plot is that govt had to vote for order noting "regret" at their strategy...

After the defeat yesterday too

Aren't council tax rates set on a council by council basis ?

taffys

It's playtime politics ... "Those awful Tories made me do it."

When it looked as though the leave cause was lost in the early summer, I thought well I'll just have to vote UKIP in future if Brexit's what I really want.

Looking at today, I'm starting to think the same again.

RobD

Scott_P said:

Meanwhile at Holyrood...

@BBCPhilipSim: So the headline is, council tax bands E-H are going up. The sub-plot is that govt had to vote for order noting "regret" at their strategy...

After the defeat yesterday too

titters

peter_from_putney

foxinsoxuk said:

AnneJGP said:

peter_from_putney said:

O/T
A fairly shocking dip in the spreads for Hillary over the past hour with her price now at 285 - 295, down 7 ECVs. Trump's spread has risen correspondingly to 241 - 251.
Therefore at their respective mid-spread points they are now just 44 ECVs apart (290 vs 246). At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

I don't know how people have the courage to engage in spread betting. What I've read about it on here is enough to frighten me!

I have bought HC at 295 but only for 50p.

The stop/loss is 200, so maximal loss of £100. It is pretty highly geared.

Eh?? Your maximum stop loss is surely 50p x (295 - 200) = £47.50.
I'm amazed that Sporting took your bet for 50p per ECV!

Pulpstar

You know it could be a really boring election night.

All the "known" states called within a minute or so (Including New Hampshire)

Some minor excitement as Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio all swap sides. But otherwise nothing but Hillary celebrating and Trump crying into his beer.

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

You know it could be a really boring election night.

All the "known" states called within a minute or so (Including New Hampshire)

Some minor excitement as Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio all swap sides. But otherwise nothing but Hillary celebrating and Trump crying into his beer.

I will take that from a financial standpoint. Dem <53 in the Senate too please.

foxinsoxuk

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AnneJGP said:

peter_from_putney said:

O/T
A fairly shocking dip in the spreads for Hillary over the past hour with her price now at 285 - 295, down 7 ECVs. Trump's spread has risen correspondingly to 241 - 251.
Therefore at their respective mid-spread points they are now just 44 ECVs apart (290 vs 246). At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

I don't know how people have the courage to engage in spread betting. What I've read about it on here is enough to frighten me!

I have bought HC at 295 but only for 50p.

The stop/loss is 200, so maximal loss of £100. It is pretty highly geared.

How did you get the stop/loss in there ?

It came up in the betting slip on Sporting Index. So the maximum loss is the free bet that they give to new accounts.

JackW

Utah - Monmouth - Sample 402 - 30 Oct - 2 Nov

Clinton 31 .. Trump 37 .. McMullin 24

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_110316/

Sean_F

Pulpstar said:

You know it could be a really boring election night.

All the "known" states called within a minute or so (Including New Hampshire)

Some minor excitement as Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio all swap sides. But otherwise nothing but Hillary celebrating and Trump crying into his beer.

Control of the Senate, OTOH, really is a coin toss (though the Democrats have the edge, thanks to the casting vote.)

foxinsoxuk

peter_from_putney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AnneJGP said:

peter_from_putney said:

O/T
A fairly shocking dip in the spreads for Hillary over the past hour with her price now at 285 - 295, down 7 ECVs. Trump's spread has risen correspondingly to 241 - 251.
Therefore at their respective mid-spread points they are now just 44 ECVs apart (290 vs 246). At this rate, with 5 days to go before the election next Tuesday, it appears possible that the Donald will be America's next President. Something which was unthinkable just one week ago.

I don't know how people have the courage to engage in spread betting. What I've read about it on here is enough to frighten me!

I have bought HC at 295 but only for 50p.

The stop/loss is 200, so maximal loss of £100. It is pretty highly geared.

Eh?? Your maximum stop loss is surely 50p x (295 - 200) = £47.50.
I'm amazed that Sporting took your bet for 50p per ECV!

I understood it to be that the bottom would be 95 EV and top 495 EV; but it is a new venture for me.

Here's hoping for a Hillary landslide!

Richard_Tyndall

Quick Update on the Young Prince.

RCS is out of surgery and looking very sorry for himself. I don't think he will be doing any typing for a week or so judging by the bandages.

foxinsoxuk

JackW said:

Utah - Monmouth - Sample 402 - 30 Oct - 2 Nov

Clinton 31 .. Trump 37 .. McMullin 24

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_110316/

I think Clinton taking Utah by slipping tbrough the middle is a reasonable longshot punt too.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/794220149398208512

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/

Scott_P

@AndrewDuffEU: @JenniferMerode I guess @MargSchinas was being polite. I doubt that the UK Supreme Court can avoid a reference to the CJEU on Article 50.

@AndrewDuffEU: @JenniferMerode Supreme Court will have no option. Article 267 says it "shall bring the matter before the Court (of Justice)".

popcorn!

Pulpstar

JackW said:

Utah - Monmouth - Sample 402 - 30 Oct - 2 Nov

Clinton 31 .. Trump 37 .. McMullin 24

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_110316/

The 8-11 on offer at Ladbrokes looks absolubtely massive on the GOP here to me.

RobD

Scott_P said:

@AndrewDuffEU: @JenniferMerode I guess @MargSchinas was being polite. I doubt that the UK Supreme Court can avoid a reference to the CJEU on Article 50.

@AndrewDuffEU: @JenniferMerode Supreme Court will have no option. Article 267 says it "shall bring the matter before the Court (of Justice)".

popcorn!

Would the government take it to the ECJ, even if they could?

chestnut

williamglenn said:

taffys said:

Voters could be forgiven for looking at today and concluding the only way to get Brexit is to vote UKIP.

And that is dangerous for some major parties, methinks.

It's as dangerous for ardent Leavers to assume that people's GE vote will be motivated by their opinion of Brexit as it is for Remainers.

There is a precedent in Scotland.

I think we can reasonably assume that many Leavers will not be lending their vote to Remain MPs, especially in clear Leave voting constituencies.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Tyndall, unfamiliar with the situation, but hope he recovers quickly.

Scott_P

RobD said:

Would the government take it to the ECJ, even if they could?

I read that as they have no choice but to.

RobD

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

Would the government take it to the ECJ, even if they could?

I read that as they have no choice but to.

Probably would help if I knew what Article 267 was...

Richard_Tyndall

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/primlystable/status/794142032268759040

Brexiteers don't do logic. That's a discipline for experts

It is amusing to see Eurofanatics who, for more than 40 years have argued in favour of the subverting of Parliamentary Sovereignty by the EEC/EU, suddenly discovering how vital it is to this country. Utter hypocrites.

taffys

''I read that as they have no choice but to. ''

Its sounding more as if the remainer assurance that we always had sovereignty, that we simply had to invoke article 50 to leave, is another complete fabrication.

Richard_Tyndall

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyndall, unfamiliar with the situation, but hope he recovers quickly.

Young Mr Smithson. Just had surgery on his arm/hand. We are friends on FB so I got to see his post-op scowl. :-)

RobD

taffys said:

''I read that as they have no choice but to. ''

Its sounding more as if the remainer assurance that we always had sovereignty, that we simply had to invoke article 50 to leave, is another complete fabrication.

Well, we do have sovereignty.. it's just in Parliament, not in the Crown.

TheWhiteRabbit

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

Would the government take it to the ECJ, even if they could?

I read that as they have no choice but to.

Probably would help if I knew what Article 267 was...

If it a question of:

"(a) the interpretation of the Treaties;

(b) the validity and interpretation of acts of the institutions, bodies, offices or agencies of the Union"

Then the Court must refer.

If the interpretation of Article 50 is at stake, it must be referred. But I'm far from clear it is.

Morris_Dancer

Hannibal wouldn't've had this palaver. The day after the vote (or possibly several months beforehand) he would've led an army of men, horses and elephants through the Channel Tunnel to devastate the oblivious eurocrats.

RobD

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

Would the government take it to the ECJ, even if they could?

I read that as they have no choice but to.

Probably would help if I knew what Article 267 was...

If it a question of:

"(a) the interpretation of the Treaties;

(b) the validity and interpretation of acts of the institutions, bodies, offices or agencies of the Union"

Then the Court must refer.

If the interpretation of Article 50 is at stake, it must be referred. But I'm far from clear it is.

Oh, why would an Article of the EU treaty force the government to appeal to the ECJ?

Sunil_Prasannan

On this day in 1534 - The English Parliament passed the first Act of Supremacy, making King Henry VIII head of the Anglican Church, supplanting the pope and the Roman Catholic Church.

Sean_F

Richard_Tyndall said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/primlystable/status/794142032268759040

Brexiteers don't do logic. That's a discipline for experts

It is amusing to see Eurofanatics who, for more than 40 years have argued in favour of the subverting of Parliamentary Sovereignty by the EEC/EU, suddenly discovering how vital it is to this country. Utter hypocrites.

A ruling caste will rarely surrender power willingly.

AnneJGP

Richard_Tyndall said:

Quick Update on the Young Prince.

RCS is out of surgery and looking very sorry for himself. I don't think he will be doing any typing for a week or so judging by the bandages.

All best wishes to him & his family.

williamglenn

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

Would the government take it to the ECJ, even if they could?

I read that as they have no choice but to.

Probably would help if I knew what Article 267 was...

If it a question of:

"(a) the interpretation of the Treaties;

(b) the validity and interpretation of acts of the institutions, bodies, offices or agencies of the Union"

Then the Court must refer.

If the interpretation of Article 50 is at stake, it must be referred. But I'm far from clear it is.

Oh, why would an Article of the EU treaty force the government to appeal to the ECJ?

That would make sense if the question of whether or not it was irreversible were at stake, but both parties seem happy to concede that it is. For now at least.