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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll

Unlike the last last parliament when there was at least one poll every single day for more than four years surveyd are now few and far between at the moment. The only regular (monthly or more) Westminster voting polls are coming from just four firms – YouGov, ICM, Opinium and Ipsos MORI. At least individual polls are not having a greater impact.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    First on the second?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    I'm glad we got rid of the daily poll.
  • I'll be glad once we are rid of English Labour.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Assuming that the Nutty Boy does take UKIP in more of a WWC direction, things can only get worse unless Labour seriously tackles the concerns of voters in Hartlepool rather than Hampstead.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    edited January 2017
    FPT,
    DavidL said:

    » show previous quotes
    Malcolm, I think we disagree about whether Scotland being independent is in its interests or not! Notwithstanding that may I wish you and yours a very happy and prosperous New Year.

    David, I was not thinking of independence, current Labour mob would be disastrous for Scotland in any way shape or form.
    I also wish you and yuor family best wishes for a very happy and prosperous New Year. Whatever it will be it will for sure be an interesting year for Scotland.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I'll be glad once we are rid of English Labour.

    And I'll second, third and fourth that!

    Only two things worry me about the implosion of Labour: that it's too good to be true and won't happen, and that Labour could hang around as a zombie Opposition for a generation after its death. Shambling around the inner cities, too weak to achieve anything of value but too strong for any alternative force (hopefully a regenerated liberal party, with a real connection to life as lived outside the M25) to finally bring down. A Tory Supremacy would be infinitely preferable to a Labour one, but neither prospect is healthy for democracy and good governance.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    malcolmg said:

    FPT,
    DavidL said:

    » show previous quotes
    Malcolm, I think we disagree about whether Scotland being independent is in its interests or not! Notwithstanding that may I wish you and yours a very happy and prosperous New Year.

    David, I was not thinking of independence, curent Labour mob would be disastrous for Scotland in any way shape or form.
    I also wish you and yuor family best wishes for a very happy and prosperous New Year. Whatever it will be it will for sure be an interesting year for Scotland.

    As I said in my original post Malcolm SLAB do not make it easy. Their present leadership is simply not fit to run anything at a national or at a local level.

    Off first footing now. Some traditions need to be retained.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Roger said:

    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.

    Down 10?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT,
    DavidL said:

    » show previous quotes
    Malcolm, I think we disagree about whether Scotland being independent is in its interests or not! Notwithstanding that may I wish you and yours a very happy and prosperous New Year.

    David, I was not thinking of independence, curent Labour mob would be disastrous for Scotland in any way shape or form.
    I also wish you and yuor family best wishes for a very happy and prosperous New Year. Whatever it will be it will for sure be an interesting year for Scotland.

    As I said in my original post Malcolm SLAB do not make it easy. Their present leadership is simply not fit to run anything at a national or at a local level.

    Off first footing now. Some traditions need to be retained.
    Enjoy
  • FPT
    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic those Yougov numbers are truly terrible for Labour. They have had a fairly secure floor of the very high 20s for as long as I can remember (there may have been the odd outlier) and they have now fallen decisively through it. They still have some months to recover before the May elections but there will surely be consternation amongst many civic leaders in local government about where they might be starting from.

    The position in Scotland (which Corbyn said was going to be a priority for him) is looking increasingly hopeless. There is no chance of them holding onto a single Council in the country and they look set to take very heavy losses to both the SNP and the Tories in the west and east respectively.

    Not even Glasgow? Is that a motivated turnout issue?

    Would you vote for a Labour candidate locally to keep out an SNP one or is that a national not local strategy?
    SLab are going to get reamed in Glasgow, to the point that the SCons will likely increase their tally from their current single councillor. You might consider that a facet of the national Indy v Unionist realignment.
    Davidson's success in consolidating the Unionist vote will hurt both Labour and the Lib Dems. She cleverly positions herself as pretty centrist for a Tory which makes her much more tolerable to the Unionist centre left. And, as others have point out, the more mainstream left is being tempted by Sturgeon's version of the SNP a lot more than they ever were by Salmond.
    That may be the SCon strategy nationally, but I'd hazard that Adam 'WATP, I bleed blue' Tomkins is more of a clue to their Glasgow specific approach.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Ha ha ha ha ha. Twenty four.

    Twenty four!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    MaxPB Posts: 11,355
    11:24AM
    Roger said:
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.


    Down 10?


    3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    The long-anticipated demise of Ukip continues to not happen. As long as Corbyn's in post, the purples are probably going nowhere.
  • MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.

    Down 10?
    He's using a bizarre mixing of percentages. Lib Dems 10% of the Lib Dems 11% is 1.1 and so being up 1% is up "nearly 10%".

    However he didn't write nearly for the Tory total and 10% of the Tories old total would be 4.2% so I see no way to make down three the same as down 4.2. The Tories are down just over 7% of their total not 10% if you're going to mix percentages in such a bizarre way.
  • Essexit said:

    The long-anticipated demise of Ukip continues to not happen. As long as Corbyn's in post, the purples are probably going nowhere.

    As long as we keep First Past the Post the purples are going nowhere ;)
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    @Philip_Thompson - true, seats-wise that is.

    Also, I'm putting a few more quid on Labour vote share 20-25% at next GE. Still 9/4 with Ladbrokes down from 5/2 in December, still looks like value.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited January 2017

    MaxPB Posts: 11,355
    11:24AM
    Roger said:
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.


    Down 10?


    3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

    That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited January 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Ha ha ha ha ha. Twenty four.

    Twenty four!

    Is it too late to call Jack Bauer?!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha ha ha ha ha. Twenty four.

    Twenty four!

    Is it too late to call Jack Bauer?!
    I did think of saying that, but I'm not too sure even Jack Bauer could save Corbyn's Labour Party from electoral oblivion.
  • When was the last time either major party polled in the teens? Could Labour this Parliament?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Sandpit said:

    Ha ha ha ha ha. Twenty four.

    Twenty four!

    And that's when Corbyn has been out of the news for a while and the PLP have shut up.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Chris Choi
    England's first garden villages proposed for 14 sites government has announced see list;https://t.co/4EF8HP3R7K
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Essexit Posts: 562
    11:34AM
    The long-anticipated demise of Ukip continues to not happen. As long as Corbyn's in post, the purples are probably going nowhere.

    Freudian slip?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    Sandpit said:

    Ha ha ha ha ha. Twenty four.

    Twenty four!

    Apart from the Angus Reid polls of unfond memory, have Labour ever polled below 24% in a nationwide poll?

    I can't think of a time off-hand but there are others on this site who know the polls better than I do. I know in 1981-2 the SDP touched 50% in a Gallup with the other two tied a long way behind - I think they were both on 24%. But I can't remember seeing anything lower.

    If not, and this is Labour's joint worst ever poll (without even the excuse of an insurgent third party) then that is embarrassing and worrying.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    When was the last time either major party polled in the teens? Could Labour this Parliament?

    I think the Tories hit 21% with Gallup after the Winchester by-election, but that's the lowest I remember.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    @logical_song Poor phrasing on my part!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB Posts: 11,355
    11:24AM
    Roger said:
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.


    Down 10?


    3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

    That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...
    You do realise that a rise from 0.9% to 1.2% is a relative percentage rise of 33% do you? I wouldn't say anything usually, but it does very slightly weaken your point...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    FPT: not a cheery thought, Mr. G.

    Broken sleazy major parties on the slide?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, can't recall the pollster, but under Brown Labour had a nadir of 19%.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/815857908428763136

    Under Ed M, Labour were 2 % points ahead of the Tories, today Corbyn is a mere 17 % points behind the Tories on 24. This is without much exposure on TV and radio, is a new low possible?
  • Con+UKIP 53%
    Progressives 36%
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Assuming that the Nutty Boy does take UKIP in more of a WWC direction, things can only get worse unless Labour seriously tackles the concerns of voters in Hartlepool rather than Hampstead.

    The next Labour manifesto should include the legalisation of dog fighting along with free chips and ganja then.

  • Dura_Ace said:

    Assuming that the Nutty Boy does take UKIP in more of a WWC direction, things can only get worse unless Labour seriously tackles the concerns of voters in Hartlepool rather than Hampstead.

    The next Labour manifesto should include the legalisation of dog fighting along with free chips and ganja then.

    And a defence of "justifiable homicide" to those who kill Hampstead lefties - oh, that's Paul Nuttall territory :o

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Ordinarily I would say: "Yeah, but it's a poll, you know."

    There has been so much written on this site about polls, with one side getting excited and the opponents going on the defensive, only to find much later real elections get different results.

    Which is exactly why we don't have PM Miliband.

    But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel, how they sound like a heresy. It can't happen. can it? It's impossible. In fact, it seems odd that Labour are as high as 24%. This time, surely, the polls have it right?

    A man who cannot even hold his own party together; a man who has never heard of a terrorist he didn't empathise with; a man who is singularly unsuited to be Junior Minister for Education (Manhole Studies), yet alone Prime Minister, could surely never reach the top?

    Then again, he's a survivor. He survived the wilderness years whilst his party was in power under the hated Blair. He survived the first leadership campaign; he survived all the muck and hassle thrown at him by his own side, yet alone his real opponents. He survived the second leadership campaign.

    It has to end sometime, doesn't it? His 'luck' has to run out?

    If not, we may be looking at PM Corbyn, however wrong and unbelievable that sounds.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    If not, we may be looking at PM Corbyn, however wrong and unbelievable that sounds.

    Putin would have to be sitting on something epic on Theresa May...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB Posts: 11,355
    11:24AM
    Roger said:
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.


    Down 10?


    3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

    That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...
    You do realise that a rise from 0.9% to 1.2% is a relative percentage rise of 33% do you? I wouldn't say anything usually, but it does very slightly weaken your point...
    Making percentage changes out of percentage measures is completely stupid. The rise in inflation was 0.3%, not 33%.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    If not, we may be looking at PM Corbyn, however wrong and unbelievable that sounds.

    Nobody can say it's impossible after the election of Donald Frederickovich. Despite the dire polling anything could happen if Brexit explodes in May's mortuary cosmetic caked face.

    I JC became PM I would laugh so hard I would literally soil myself.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB Posts: 11,355
    11:24AM
    Roger said:
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.


    Down 10?


    3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

    That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...
    You do realise that a rise from 0.9% to 1.2% is a relative percentage rise of 33% do you? I wouldn't say anything usually, but it does very slightly weaken your point...
    Making percentage changes out of percentage measures is completely stupid. The rise in inflation was 0.3%, not 33%.
    Did it not happen a few weeks ago that the BBC reported a 'Huge' 0.1% increase in inflation, in the same bulletin as decrying a 'Tiny' 0.1% drop in unemployment?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, can't recall BBC coverage of inflation but Sky News described it as a spike.

    Also, the 'large' rise in inflation was followed by reports of 'small' wage increases. Which exceeded inflation. But there we are.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.

    Polls at this point of the cycle I would take with a pinch of salt.

    Nontheless it is interesting to see that May’s honeymoon is fading. A 3% drop is less likely to be MOE than a 1% one.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB Posts: 11,355
    11:24AM
    Roger said:
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.


    Down 10?


    3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

    That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...
    You do realise that a rise from 0.9% to 1.2% is a relative percentage rise of 33% do you? I wouldn't say anything usually, but it does very slightly weaken your point...
    Making percentage changes out of percentage measures is completely stupid. The rise in inflation was 0.3%, not 33%.
    Did it not happen a few weeks ago that the BBC reported a 'Huge' 0.1% increase in inflation, in the same bulletin as decrying a 'Tiny' 0.1% drop in unemployment?
    And the following month inflation dropped by 0.1% back to 0.9% without any such fanfare. It's as if the BBC has an agenda!
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    If Brexit really implodes (it won't), Prime Minister Farron seems more likely than Prime Minister Corbyn.

    Farron may also be that rarest of things, a less appealing politician than Jeremy Corbyn.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    OT Just finished Narcos S2 on Netflix - just as excellent as S1.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7elNhHwgBU
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728

    Mr. Doethur, can't recall the pollster, but under Brown Labour had a nadir of 19%.

    Thank you, have found it - Ipsos Mori, May 2009. You were however wrong on one thing - it was 18%! Angus Reid repeatedly showed shares in the low 20s as well.

    However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable.

    Labour are indeed fortunate that their challengers are split between two/three parties. If it were to coalesce around one and consolidate, then they might be in trouble. I have to say Labour's strength in the large metropolitan areas makes that difficult to see, but on these figures short of something really dramatic even a hung parliament is way out of their reach.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, really? I had 19% fixed in my mind. Might have been a rounding error.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: apparently, Wehrlein's off to Sauber.
    https://twitter.com/Motorsport/status/815859189868335104

    Looks good for Bottas to Mercedes.
  • I think you're all missing the big picture, Labour have reduced the Tory lead by 2%.
  • @JosiasJessop

    Naught but Tory Scum propaganda Some good points!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, can't recall the pollster, but under Brown Labour had a nadir of 19%.

    Thank you, have found it - Ipsos Mori, May 2009. You were however wrong on one thing - it was 18%! Angus Reid repeatedly showed shares in the low 20s as well.

    However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable.

    Labour are indeed fortunate that their challengers are split between two/three parties. If it were to coalesce around one and consolidate, then they might be in trouble. I have to say Labour's strength in the large metropolitan areas makes that difficult to see, but on these figures short of something really dramatic even a hung parliament is way out of their reach.
    May 2009 was also the date of the EU Parliamentary election, in which Labour scored a paltry 15.7% nationally.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
  • @TSE

    No, Tories had a 7% lead at GE2015.
    In this poll they have a 15% lead!

    :lol:
  • I think you're all missing the big picture, Labour have reduced the Tory lead by 2%.

    At this rate crossover is due by September when Labour's 16% beats the Tories 15%. Unfortunately for both by this stage UKIP will be on 30% and the Lib Dems on 20%.

    Or maybe not.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, can't recall the pollster, but under Brown Labour had a nadir of 19%.

    Thank you, have found it - Ipsos Mori, May 2009. You were however wrong on one thing - it was 18%! Angus Reid repeatedly showed shares in the low 20s as well.

    However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable.

    Labour are indeed fortunate that their challengers are split between two/three parties. If it were to coalesce around one and consolidate, then they might be in trouble. I have to say Labour's strength in the large metropolitan areas makes that difficult to see, but on these figures short of something really dramatic even a hung parliament is way out of their reach.
    May 2009 was also the date of the EU Parliamentary election, in which Labour scored a paltry 15.7% nationally.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
    Yet scored 12% more a year later at the GE.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited January 2017

    F1: apparently, Wehrlein's off to Sauber.
    htt://twitter.com/Motorsport/status/815859189868335104

    Looks good for Bottas to Mercedes.

    Wherlein was second favourite for the Mercedes drive, so it's almost certainly going to be Bottas now - unless some very left field choice from another formula gets the hottest seat in F1. Or Jenson Button.

    *Wonders out loud about Hamilton's price for SPOTY next year*
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    One thing I have found for dyed in the wool reds is that once they break the habit of voting Labour it isn't easy for Labour to win them back. If Labour are beginning to lose their core voters then 24 could become 20 very soon and their ceiling could be 26-28 even with a new leader.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Chris Choi
    England's first garden villages proposed for 14 sites government has announced see list;https://t.co/4EF8HP3R7K

    ' Plans for a wave of garden villages creating tens of thousands of new homes in England have been given the go-ahead.

    Ministers have backed 14 bids to create the new communities, with between 1,500 and 10,000 properties each. '

    So 'villages' which have from 3,000 to 30,000 residents.

    I doubt that's what most people imagine as a 'village'.

    But then calling them 14 small / medium new towns might be a harder sell.

  • If this poll is accurate, all things being equal, the Tories should be nailed on to take Copeland.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, can't recall the pollster, but under Brown Labour had a nadir of 19%.

    Thank you, have found it - Ipsos Mori, May 2009. You were however wrong on one thing - it was 18%! Angus Reid repeatedly showed shares in the low 20s as well.

    However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable.

    Labour are indeed fortunate that their challengers are split between two/three parties. If it were to coalesce around one and consolidate, then they might be in trouble. I have to say Labour's strength in the large metropolitan areas makes that difficult to see, but on these figures short of something really dramatic even a hung parliament is way out of their reach.
    May 2009 was also the date of the EU Parliamentary election, in which Labour scored a paltry 15.7% nationally.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
    Yet scored 12% more a year later at the GE.
    Yep. 2009 was UKIP's big breakthrough, the election being held in the aftermath of the expenses scandal. Farage's party came second with 17%.
  • @PlatoSaid

    Letchworth Garden City
    Welwyn Garden City

    :)
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB Posts: 11,355
    11:24AM
    Roger said:
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10%

    What a time to be alive!.


    Down 10?


    3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

    That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...
    You do realise that a rise from 0.9% to 1.2% is a relative percentage rise of 33% do you? I wouldn't say anything usually, but it does very slightly weaken your point...
    Except it's not because it's a percentage change of what is itself a percentage change and that is not an acceptable way of dealing with statistics.

    To demonstrate it more clearly what 0.9% inflation means is that inflation has a price multiplier of 100.9% - changing the multiplier from 100.9% to 101.2% shows just how ridiculous the claim was. You can't forget the 100% because it's inconvenient to your spin or else you're slashing prices dramatically not increasing them.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    "But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel,"

    Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, surely this year? He's 11 on Ladbrokes.

    Mr. Richard, I'd say 3,000 counts as a village.

    Mind you, I was in China, and a 'village' had 200,000 residents, so it's all relative.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728

    PlatoSaid said:

    Chris Choi
    England's first garden villages proposed for 14 sites government has announced see list;https://t.co/4EF8HP3R7K

    ' Plans for a wave of garden villages creating tens of thousands of new homes in England have been given the go-ahead.

    Ministers have backed 14 bids to create the new communities, with between 1,500 and 10,000 properties each. '

    So 'villages' which have from 3,000 to 30,000 residents.

    I doubt that's what most people imagine as a 'village'.

    But then calling them 14 small / medium new towns might be a harder sell.

    I have always thought of a village as somewhere that has few local services (e.g. only one shop) and a hamlet as somewhere that doesn't even have that. That is why I think of Llanwrtyd Wells (population 800) as a town and Highnam (population 2000) as a village.

    However, I believe the technical definition of a village is a clearly defined rural settlement without a separate council from the surrounding area. So size is irrelevant even though it's what most people use to judge such places.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Chris Choi
    England's first garden villages proposed for 14 sites government has announced see list;https://t.co/4EF8HP3R7K

    ' Plans for a wave of garden villages creating tens of thousands of new homes in England have been given the go-ahead.

    Ministers have backed 14 bids to create the new communities, with between 1,500 and 10,000 properties each. '

    So 'villages' which have from 3,000 to 30,000 residents.

    I doubt that's what most people imagine as a 'village'.

    But then calling them 14 small / medium new towns might be a harder sell.

    Even though that's what we should probably be building each year. Much better to keep building small/medium new towns than push ever more people into the inner cities.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB Posts: 11,355
    11:24AM
    Roger said:
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10


    3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

    That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...
    You do realise that a rise from 0.9% to 1.2% is a relative percentage rise of 33% do you? I wouldn't say anything usually, but it does very slightly weaken your point...
    Making percentage changes out of percentage measures is completely stupid. The rise in inflation was 0.3%, not 33%.
    Did it not happen a few weeks ago that the BBC reported a 'Huge' 0.1% increase in inflation, in the same bulletin as decrying a 'Tiny' 0.1% drop in unemployment?
    I'd be surprised. You have a link?

    This was a few weeks ago: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38300919
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    If we're using ye olde definitions, villages were defined, I think, as just having a parish church and typically 150 residents or fewer (maybe a bakery but nothing fancy). A town was defined as having a market.

    Did a spot of demographic research for fantasy-writing, and a city might only have a few thousand residents, which sounds very small now.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    "But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel,"

    Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..

    How long will PM May's lead last though if (formerly!) loyal Tory voters report that she treats them like this?

    http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons

    Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Surrey voted Remain. They have almost no Labour seats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    edited January 2017

    If we're using ye olde definitions, villages were defined, I think, as just having a parish church and typically 150 residents or fewer (maybe a bakery but nothing fancy). A town was defined as having a market.

    Did a spot of demographic research for fantasy-writing, and a city might only have a few thousand residents, which sounds very small now.

    In the Wars of the Roses, it is estimated London probably had 60,000 residents, York and Norwich around 10,000, and Bristol not quite 7,000. The rest - 5,000 at best.

    That's quite a sobering thought.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Kieron
    Typos.

    The Greek God of spelling errors.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    If this poll is accurate, all things being equal, the Tories should be nailed on to take Copeland.

    The problem is the polls are taken now but the bye-election will almost certainly be post A50.

    Will there be a wave of patriotic fervour, or a reaction to the confusion and chaos? Or both. Certainly it will be a different context.
  • If this poll is accurate, all things being equal, the Tories should be nailed on to take Copeland.

    In a General Election absolutely.

    In a by-election while in government not so sure.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited January 2017

    "But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel,"

    Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..

    How long will PM May's lead last though if (formerly!) loyal Tory voters report that she treats them like this?

    http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons

    Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Surrey voted Remain. They have almost no Labour seats.
    Except Louise Trethowan is a Lib Dem, not a "loyal Tory voter". Look at her twitter history.

    Yet more #Fakenews.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    "But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel,"

    Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..

    How long will PM May's lead last though if (formerly!) loyal Tory voters report that she treats them like this?

    http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons

    Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Surrey voted Remain. They have almost no Labour seats.
    Except Louise Trethowan is a Lib Dem. Look at her twitter history.
    The victim of the rude behaviour is said in the article to be a 'lifelong Conservative voter'.

    Or is this more 'fake news'?!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879

    "But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel,"

    Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..

    How long will PM May's lead last though if (formerly!) loyal Tory voters report that she treats them like this?

    http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons

    Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Surrey voted Remain. They have almost no Labour seats.
    It's not clear to me what she was hoping for from this meeting. That she would convince TM she was wrong on brexit?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB Posts: 11,355
    11:24AM
    Roger said:
    Lib dems up nearly 10% Tories down 10


    3 in 40 is 7.5%. Not sure it's that meaningful.

    That goes in the same pantheon as inflation up 33% when it rose from 0.9% to 1.2%...
    You do realise that a rise from 0.9% to 1.2% is a relative percentage rise of 33% do you? I wouldn't say anything usually, but it does very slightly weaken your point...
    Making percentage changes out of percentage measures is completely stupid. The rise in inflation was 0.3%, not 33%.
    Did it not happen a few weeks ago that the BBC reported a 'Huge' 0.1% increase in inflation, in the same bulletin as decrying a 'Tiny' 0.1% drop in unemployment?
    I'd be surprised. You have a link?

    This was a few weeks ago: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38300919
    It was on a radio bulletin, was discussed on here at the time. Let me dig back and see if I can find it.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Chris Choi
    England's first garden villages proposed for 14 sites government has announced see list;https://t.co/4EF8HP3R7K

    ' Plans for a wave of garden villages creating tens of thousands of new homes in England have been given the go-ahead.

    Ministers have backed 14 bids to create the new communities, with between 1,500 and 10,000 properties each. '

    So 'villages' which have from 3,000 to 30,000 residents.

    I doubt that's what most people imagine as a 'village'.

    But then calling them 14 small / medium new towns might be a harder sell.

    Even though that's what we should probably be building each year. Much better to keep building small/medium new towns than push ever more people into the inner cities.
    I have no problem with building such places but we need to be honest about what is to be built.

    Otherwise we'll end up with the infrastructure for a 'garden village' not that needed for a new town.
  • Mr. Sandpit, surely this year? He's 11 on Ladbrokes.

    Mr. Richard, I'd say 3,000 counts as a village.

    Mind you, I was in China, and a 'village' had 200,000 residents, so it's all relative.

    The description 'garden village' suggests the sort of place which features on 'Beautiful Britain' calendars.

    As ydoethur says it depends upon the level of services within the settlement.

    A new place of 3,000 people with a pub, shop and bus stop would be better described as a housing development than a village.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    A bit odd that this poll has been published now two weeks after the fieldwork took place! Why was it not released before Christmas? As well as being a bit out of date it appears a bit out of line with Opininium , Mori - and even ICM.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic those Yougov numbers are truly terrible for Labour. They have had a fairly secure floor of the very high 20s for as long as I can remember (there may have been the odd outlier) and they have now fallen decisively through it. They still have some months to recover before the May elections but there will surely be consternation amongst many civic leaders in local government about where they might be starting from.

    The position in Scotland (which Corbyn said was going to be a priority for him) is looking increasingly hopeless. There is no chance of them holding onto a single Council in the country and they look set to take very heavy losses to both the SNP and the Tories in the west and east respectively.

    Not even Glasgow? Is that a motivated turnout issue?

    Would you vote for a Labour candidate locally to keep out an SNP one or is that a national not local strategy?
    SLab are going to get reamed in Glasgow, to the point that the SCons will likely increase their tally from their current single councillor. You might consider that a facet of the national Indy v Unionist realignment.
    Davidson's success in consolidating the Unionist vote will hurt both Labour and the Lib Dems. She cleverly positions herself as pretty centrist for a Tory which makes her much more tolerable to the Unionist centre left. And, as others have point out, the more mainstream left is being tempted by Sturgeon's version of the SNP a lot more than they ever were by Salmond.
    That may be the SCon strategy nationally, but I'd hazard that Adam 'WATP, I bleed blue' Tomkins is more of a clue to their Glasgow specific approach.
    Centrist my butt, extreme right wing nutter more like.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    between 1950 and 2100 europeans will have gone from being 22% of the world's population to 6%

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/menschen/dsw-bildet-die-weltbevoelkerung-und-entwicklung-in-dorf-ab-14600551.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    rkrkrk said:

    "But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel,"

    Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..

    How long will PM May's lead last though if (formerly!) loyal Tory voters report that she treats them like this?

    http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons

    Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Surrey voted Remain. They have almost no Labour seats.
    It's not clear to me what she was hoping for from this meeting. That she would convince TM she was wrong on brexit?
    She says in the article - " I didn’t think she would be able to make me change my mind... but I did expect her to try."

    She went for a Monty Python style "15 minute argument" and accidentally walked into the stonewalling room.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic those Yougov numbers are truly terrible for Labour. They have had a fairly secure floor of the very high 20s for as long as I can remember (there may have been the odd outlier) and they have now fallen decisively through it. They still have some months to recover before the May elections but there will surely be consternation amongst many civic leaders in local government about where they might be starting from.

    The position in Scotland (which Corbyn said was going to be a priority for him) is looking increasingly hopeless. There is no chance of them holding onto a single Council in the country and they look set to take very heavy losses to both the SNP and the Tories in the west and east respectively.

    Not even Glasgow? Is that a motivated turnout issue?

    Would you vote for a Labour candidate locally to keep out an SNP one or is that a national not local strategy?
    SLab are going to get reamed in Glasgow, to the point that the SCons will likely increase their tally from their current single councillor. You might consider that a facet of the national Indy v Unionist realignment.
    Davidson's success in consolidating the Unionist vote will hurt both Labour and the Lib Dems. She cleverly positions herself as pretty centrist for a Tory which makes her much more tolerable to the Unionist centre left. And, as others have point out, the more mainstream left is being tempted by Sturgeon's version of the SNP a lot more than they ever were by Salmond.
    That may be the SCon strategy nationally, but I'd hazard that Adam 'WATP, I bleed blue' Tomkins is more of a clue to their Glasgow specific approach.
    Centrist my butt, extreme right wing nutter more like.
    Happy New Year malc

    is this the big retirement one ? :-)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Ydoethur said
    'However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable. '

    On the other hand, Opinium has Labour at 31% based on fieldwork just a few days earlier.Mori puts them on 29% and the last ICM gave them 27%. This poll looks a bit odd!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    edited January 2017

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic those Yougov numbers are truly terrible for Labour. They have had a fairly secure floor of the very high 20s for as long as I can remember (there may have been the odd outlier) and they have now fallen decisively through it. They still have some months to recover before the May elections but there will surely be consternation amongst many civic leaders in local government about where they might be starting from.

    The position in Scotland (which Corbyn said was going to be a priority for him) is looking increasingly hopeless. There is no chance of them holding onto a single Council in the country and they look set to take very heavy losses to both the SNP and the Tories in the west and east respectively.

    Not even Glasgow? Is that a motivated turnout issue?

    Would you vote for a Labour candidate locally to keep out an SNP one or is that a national not local strategy?
    SLab are going to get reamed in Glasgow, to the point that the SCons will likely increase their tally from their current single councillor. You might consider that a facet of the national Indy v Unionist realignment.
    Davidson's success in consolidating the Unionist vote will hurt both Labour and the Lib Dems. She cleverly positions herself as pretty centrist for a Tory which makes her much more tolerable to the Unionist centre left. And, as others have point out, the more mainstream left is being tempted by Sturgeon's version of the SNP a lot more than they ever were by Salmond.
    That may be the SCon strategy nationally, but I'd hazard that Adam 'WATP, I bleed blue' Tomkins is more of a clue to their Glasgow specific approach.
    Centrist my butt, extreme right wing nutter more like.
    Happy New Year malc

    is this the big retirement one ? :-)
    Happy New Year Alan, I am thinking of going just a little bit longer, would be at too much of a loose end. Debating whether to take a new European position I have been offered that sounds interesting or stay where I am , depends if UK can come up with an incentive to stay. Plan for this year is to transfer my pension out to a SIPP, get my hands on a chunk of it.
    Is your wife still there, expect there to be plenty churn again this year as they "Transform".

    PS: Hope your business is going well, shoudl be good opportunities for you in near future.
  • "But 'Prime Minister Corbyn'? Roll those three words around in your mouth and see how wrong they feel,"

    Agreed, but so does "President Trump"..

    How long will PM May's lead last though if (formerly!) loyal Tory voters report that she treats them like this?

    http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons

    Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Surrey voted Remain. They have almost no Labour seats.
    Except Louise Trethowan is a Lib Dem. Look at her twitter history.
    The victim of the rude behaviour is said in the article to be a 'lifelong Conservative voter'.

    Or is this more 'fake news'?!
    She clearly contradicts herself in her data manipulation:

    ' so I showed her a pie chart with voting numbers showing that only 37% of the electorate voted for Brexit, which was not the majority of British people '

    So she reduces the Leave vote by multiplying by turnout and then:

    ' Maidenhead had voted overwhelmingly for Remain '

    Windsor and Maidenhead council voted 53.9% Remain on a 79.7% turnout ie only a 43% vote for Remain.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic those Yougov numbers are truly terrible for Labour. They have had a fairly secure floor of the very high 20s for as long as I can remember (there may have been the odd outlier) and they have now fallen decisively through it. They still have some months to recover before the May elections but there will surely be consternation amongst many civic leaders in local government about where they might be starting from.

    The position in Scotland (which Corbyn said was going to be a priority for him) is looking increasingly hopeless. There is no chance of them holding onto a single Council in the country and they look set to take very heavy losses to both the SNP and the Tories in the west and east respectively.

    Not even Glasgow? Is that a motivated turnout issue?

    Would you vote for a Labour candidate locally to keep out an SNP one or is that a national not local strategy?
    SLab are going to get reamed in Glasgow, to the point that the SCons will likely increase their tally from their current single councillor. You might consider that a facet of the national Indy v Unionist realignment.
    Davidson's success in consolidating the Unionist vote will hurt both Labour and the Lib Dems. She cleverly positions herself as pretty centrist for a Tory which makes her much more tolerable to the Unionist centre left. And, as others have point out, the more mainstream left is being tempted by Sturgeon's version of the SNP a lot more than they ever were by Salmond.
    That may be the SCon strategy nationally, but I'd hazard that Adam 'WATP, I bleed blue' Tomkins is more of a clue to their Glasgow specific approach.
    Centrist my butt, extreme right wing nutter more like.
    Happy New Year malc

    is this the big retirement one ? :-)
    Happy New Year Alan, I am thinking of going just a little bit longer, would be at too much of a loose end. Debating whether to take a new European position I have been offered that sounds interesting or stay where I am , depends if UK can come up with an incentive to stay. Plan for this year is to transfer my pension out to a SIPP, get my hands on a chunk of it.
    Is your wife still there, expect there to be plenty churn again this year as they "Transform".

    PS: Hope your business is going well, shoudl be good opportunities for you in near future.
    Yeah Missus is still there but watching her colleagues disappear as each month goes by

    Hoping 2017 picks up, last quarter was tough trading so could do with a brisk start to the year.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited January 2017
    justin124 said:

    A bit odd that this poll has been published now two weeks after the fieldwork took place! Why was it not released before Christmas? As well as being a bit out of date it appears a bit out of line with Opininium , Mori - and even ICM.

    December polling;
    Con Lab UKIP LD
    39% 24% 14% 12% - Yougov
    38% 31% 13% 6% - Opinium
    40% 29% 9% 14% - MORI
    41% 27% 14% 9% - ICM
    42% 25% 12% 11% - Yougov

    So really what this shows is that Labour does best when the methodology of a pollster likely underestimates 3rd and 4th parties. UKIP always do poorly in MORI compared to other pollsters, Libs are unrealistically low in Opinium.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    justin124 said:

    Ydoethur said
    'However, the majority of pollsters had them in the 27-31 bracket, which was of course where they ended up. 27 is however now at the higher end of what pollsters are giving them in the last few months, so talk of a 25% share in an actual election doesn't seem unreasonable. '

    On the other hand, Opinium has Labour at 31% based on fieldwork just a few days earlier.Mori puts them on 29% and the last ICM gave them 27%. This poll looks a bit odd!

    Thanks. I hadn't appreciated exactly when the fieldwork was done.

    The general trend however is clearly low by historic standards and struggling to match even their abysmal performance in 2010.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    Have there been any opinion polls for the French presidential election since the terror attack in Berlin on 19 December? The fieldwork for the most recent one listed at Wikipedia was completed on 7 December.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    Dromedary said:

    A

    B
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2017
    In Scotland I think Labour needs to take a much firmer anti -Independence position such as would have been adopted by John Smith , Donald Dewar and Robin Cook. It seems probable that any voters who have been inclined to switch to the SNP will have already done so, and that Labour needs to focus on winning back support from those attracted by Ruth Davidson. Interesting that the leaked poll has the SNP at 45% - which is 5% lower than at the 2015 Westminster election. Tory voters who were previously voting SNP on the basis of an anti-Labour tactical vote appear to have returned home. By firming up its own Unionist base Labour can wait for a continuation of the shine to fall off the SNP administration. Only at that point will the SNP switchers be likely to return home to Labour.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    2016 was the first year since 1968 when no British soldiers died in operation

    https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/uk/2016-second-year-since-world-war-no-uk-military-deaths/

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    http://arstechnica.co.uk/security/2016/12/did-russia-tamper-with-the-2016-election-bitter-debate-likely-to-rage-on/

    Ars calling bullshit on the Russian hacking claims and deconstructing the report quite adeptly.

    It's all fake news though I guess.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    justin124 said:

    In Scotland I think Labour needs to take a much firmer anti -Independence position such as would have been adopted by John Smith , Donald Dewar and Robin Cook. It seems probable that any voters who have been inclined to switch to the SNP will have already done so, and that Labour needs to focus on winning back support from those attracted by Ruth Davidson. Interesting that the leaked poll has the SNP at 45% - which is 5% lower than at the 2015 Westminster election. Tory voters who were previously voting SNP on the basis of an anti-Labour tactical vote appear to have returned home. By firming up its own Unionist base Labour can wait for a continuation of the shine to fall off the SNP administration. Only at that point will the SNP switchers be likely to return home to Labour.

    Only 180 degrees out there, they will be waiting a long time methinks. Labour a busted flush and Tories with NO chance of ever being in government.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    FPT:
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Do socialists drink beer and Conservatives drink wine?

    Churchill brandy, Thatcher whisky, Hague beer, Cameron wine are the ones I know about without googling.
    Cameron was a pretend Guinness drinker:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/18/david-cameron-guinness-darts-sky

    and was associated with expensive champagne from his Bullingdon days but also convincingly drank beer in pubs.
    Tim used to have a hilariously bad photo of Cameron supposedly drinking Guinness at home which he used to post regularly. I still miss his acerbic wit.
    I think we know who is the pretend beer drinker out of these two

    image
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    malcolmg said :
    'Only 180 degrees out there, they will be waiting a long time methinks. Labour a busted flush and Tories with NO chance of ever being in government. '

    The SNP will eventually become unpopular as all parties in Government do. There are increasing signs that peak SNP was reached in 2015 as reflected in both Holyrood and council by elections. I suspect they will struggle to poll 45% at the next Westminster elections - 42/43% is probably more likely.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    I am not convinced by David's view that "Even a series of terrorist attacks is unlikely to swing the European results (...) Fillon would play sufficiently to the same law, order and culture market as Le Pen to see her off".

    James Connington at the Telegraph ("(e)ven if Ms Le Pen doesn’t win") and Matthew Doulton at the Wall Street Journal ("Mr. Fillon, however, is more likely to become president") seem to think she's got a good chance.

    Like the last three presidents Fillon has been a senior government minister (in his case, prime minister), which gives him recognition, but although he is outperforming Le Pen in one-dimensional popularity polls the more important consideration may be whether he can come cross as "feeling people's pain". Hollande and Valls can't. If it's time for a change, will law and order packaging be enough?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Dromedary said:

    I am not convinced by David's view that "Even a series of terrorist attacks is unlikely to swing the European results (...) Fillon would play sufficiently to the same law, order and culture market as Le Pen to see her off".

    James Connington at the Telegraph ("(e)ven if Ms Le Pen doesn’t win") and Matthew Doulton at the Wall Street Journal ("Mr. Fillon, however, is more likely to become president") seem to think she's got a good chance.

    Like the last three presidents Fillon has been a senior government minister (in his case, prime minister), which gives him recognition, but although he is outperforming Le Pen in one-dimensional popularity polls the more important consideration may be whether he can come cross as "feeling people's pain". Hollande and Valls can't. If it's time for a change, will law and order packaging be enough?

    France had serious terrorist attacks in 2015, and it didn't change Le Pen's polling.

    Indeed, there were two sets of elections in 2015 in France and the Front National underperformed its polling in both cases. It also did very poorly in transfer votes in both. Even immediately after the Bataclan attack, in the most pro-FN region in France, and with Marine Le Pen herself standing against a colourless LR candidate, the FN still trailed by 10%.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Do socialists drink beer and Conservatives drink wine?

    Churchill brandy, Thatcher whisky, Hague beer, Cameron wine are the ones I know about without googling.
    Cameron was a pretend Guinness drinker:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/18/david-cameron-guinness-darts-sky

    and was associated with expensive champagne from his Bullingdon days but also convincingly drank beer in pubs.
    Tim used to have a hilariously bad photo of Cameron supposedly drinking Guinness at home which he used to post regularly. I still miss his acerbic wit.
    I think we know who is the pretend beer drinker out of these two
    Is this the one DavidL is referring to?

    image
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited January 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Dromedary said:

    I am not convinced by David's view that "Even a series of terrorist attacks is unlikely to swing the European results (...) Fillon would play sufficiently to the same law, order and culture market as Le Pen to see her off".

    James Connington at the Telegraph ("(e)ven if Ms Le Pen doesn’t win") and Matthew Doulton at the Wall Street Journal ("Mr. Fillon, however, is more likely to become president") seem to think she's got a good chance.

    Like the last three presidents Fillon has been a senior government minister (in his case, prime minister), which gives him recognition, but although he is outperforming Le Pen in one-dimensional popularity polls the more important consideration may be whether he can come cross as "feeling people's pain". Hollande and Valls can't. If it's time for a change, will law and order packaging be enough?

    France had serious terrorist attacks in 2015, and it didn't change Le Pen's polling.

    Indeed, there were two sets of elections in 2015 in France and the Front National underperformed its polling in both cases. It also did very poorly in transfer votes in both. Even immediately after the Bataclan attack, in the most pro-FN region in France, and with Marine Le Pen herself standing against a colourless LR candidate, the FN still trailed by 10%.

    I think it would have to be a very, very serious attack indeed for FN to get a look in. It would also have to be Syrians who have German asylum status. Maybe an attack on the Élysée or Notre-Dame. Even then I think it wouldn't happen and Fillon would tack to the right and win.
This discussion has been closed.