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Ukip donor Banks says he will run against Carswell at next election after MP describes party as a 'basket case' https://t.co/9EcJfklbkp v

Read the full story here

dixiedean

First, like Carswell, but unlike any other Kipper!

TOPPING

Second like Banks in Clacton

logical_song

That photo of Farage and Carswell is just crying out for speech bubbles.

logical_song

TOPPING said:

Second like Banks in Clacton

You think he'll do that well?

TOPPING

logical_song said:

TOPPING said:

Second like Banks in Clacton

You think he'll do that well?

Good point. He'll come first in complete arseholes. He would come a millionth and one if a million people stand.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

dixiedean

Quite extraordinary. UKIP outdoes Labour as most dysfunctional party. This would be like Len McCluskey running against Corbyn in Islington North!

TOPPING

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

Brexit will be great for airport signmakers. Rejoice.

JonathanD

Just as well the rest of the UK isn't dependant on London tax revenue.

"A separate survey of finance executives by Duff & Phelps found that 58% see New York as a leading global financial centre compared to 36% who named London, while predictions for 2022 saw scores remaining steady for New York and falling to 16% for London."

http://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shakeup/john-major-opportunities-of-brexit-are-inflated/

David_Evershed

U Kip if you want to. Carswell's not for kipping.

Richard_Nabavi

"my guess is that he and his team have a pretty good idea of his support base"

Will his team still exist, though? Diehard Kippers will presumably not be working with him, and Kipper-inclined ex-Tory activists will probably drift back to the Tories. I'd have thought he be in some trouble in a three-way contest.

Blue_rog

FPT

Stark_Dawning Posts: 2,160
1:00PM
Blue_rog said:
» show previous quotes
We will always have access to the single market, just not be a member

Okay, okay. We might still have the same 'access' as Fiji or whoever - I'm just amazed that that is itself is now regarded as a cause for celebration.

And USA

Sandpit

That would be a funny seat to watch on election night. I guess Mr Banks won't care to much to lose £500.

It would also be funny if Carswell quit UKIP and lost them the £300k a year claimed in Short Money, but he's too honest to do that without resigning his seat - which is probably one by-election too many for his constituents.

Meanwhile, Nigel's enjoying life in Washington hobnobbing with the President - something the govt really need to keep a close eye on.

Stark_Dawning

All this is most amusing, but beneath it all is the definite smell of death. Actually I'm a little nervous: at least the likes of Carswell provide a modicum of sensible counterbalance to the UKIP deplorables. If UKIP goes and an unfettered Banks and Farage begin their Trumpite insurgency, then that has some very dangerous potential. I'm starting to take a better-the-devil-you-know approach.

rkrkrk

TOPPING said:

Second like Banks in Clacton

You think he'd come second? I think he might lose his deposit...

[Deleted User]

Carswell strikes me as being basically a good egg. Euroscpetic Tory whose party deserted him under Dave n Ozzy but has now drifted right back to him. Clearly very popular in Clacton but sems a bit too intellectual / theoretical vs the teeth n sawdust image of Calcton itself.
He'd make a super Speaker.

PlatoSaid

Mr Memory
Gerald Kaufman is the 24th sitting Labour MP to have died since April 2000; in the same period 1 Con, 1 LibDem, 1 UUP and 1 Ind MP have died

TheScreamingEagles

FEWER not less.

AndyJS

O/T

"JPMorgan software does in seconds what took lawyers 360,000 hours
A new era of automation is now in overdrive as cheap computing power converges with fears of losing customers to startups"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/jp-morgan-software-lawyers-coin-contract-intelligence-parsing-financial-deals-seconds-legal-working-a7603256.html

williamglenn

The Eurozone membership poll for Ireland is 90% Remain.

One day I hope the rest of the UK as was comes to the same view.

AlsoIndigo

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

TOPPING

rkrkrk said:

TOPPING said:

Second like Banks in Clacton

You think he'd come second? I think he might lose his deposit...

Well in some vague approximation of seriousness, if he was going to run then surely he would throw as much money at it as legally allowable. Perhaps ask his nanny and valet to help him canvass. He would certainly get media facetime.

MyBurningEars

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

It would be interesting to see how this compares to the % of Brits who would do not want the pound, or Yanks who do not want the dollar...

Decades into the long road of economic and political union, 18 years since currency union, and even the core group doesn't show great coherence as a geopolitical unit. Yet the momentum is ever-onwards, ever-deeper.

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

FEWER not less.

Perhaps Carswell should only be regarded as half a UKIP MP - in which case 'less' would be applicable.

SimonStClare

UKIP hogging the headlines, but for all the wrong reasons. Will it last till the end of the year?

nunu

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/27/fgm-should-not-prosecuted-police-force-says-claims-best-course/

TheScreamingEagles

‪If only he had said this during the referendum campaign. ‬

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/836564251791749120

TOPPING

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FEWER not less.

Perhaps Carswell should only be regarded as half a UKIP MP - in which case 'less' would be applicable.

You can certainly pick him up with a pitchfork.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

Not in Italy though and if 5☆ win next year as polls suggest even if Le Pen loses the Euro would be in big trouble

Essexit

Richard_Nabavi said:

"my guess is that he and his team have a pretty good idea of his support base"

Will his team still exist, though? Diehard Kippers will presumably not be working with him, and Kipper-inclined ex-Tory activists will probably drift back to the Tories. I'd have thought he be in some trouble in a three-way contest.

Agreed. Harwich and Clacton nominally goes Conservative. In a two-way contest Carswell would be fine - no doubt plenty in Harwich who voted for Bernard Jenkin would vote for Carswell. Throw Banks in splitting the UKIP vote though - even by not very much - and the Conservative wins (provided they're not a die-hard Remainer).

AlsoIndigo

Where does UK election law stand on what in the US context would be a PAC ? If there is an non-profit organisation with no legal connection with a candidate other than that it supports his election, uses its money to buy advertising, canvass, fund raise, accept donations, hold public meetings etc, would that be lawful ? If not, how would that be different to a national newspaper that vigorously supports a particular candidate or party ?

TwistedFireStopper

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

I guess the people of the Eurozone nations (is it ok to call them nations, or does that offend the federalist in you?) don't really have any other choice after 18 years do they?

AlsoIndigo

nunu said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/27/fgm-should-not-prosecuted-police-force-says-claims-best-course/

Does a police force get to say what should be prosecuted and what should not ? Does police discretion extend to turning a blind eye to brutal acts of sexual mutilation ?

MyBurningEars

TheScreamingEagles said:

FEWER not less.

Nah. The fewer/less "rule" is one guy's personal stylistic taste that has somehow been misremembered and ossified into some kind of Pedants' Commandment.

http://itre.cis.upenn.edu/myl/languagelog/archives/003775.html

Proper English, as what woz written by Alfred the Great no less back as early as the 10th century, was quite happy to use "less" with countable nouns.

Swa mid læs worda swa mid ma, swæðer we hit yereccan mayon.

SandyRentool

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FEWER not less.

Perhaps Carswell should only be regarded as half a UKIP MP - in which case 'less' would be applicable.

I took that to be what Mike was implying.

Roger

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool (in an intro to a TV prog) say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was 'because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers'. Her friend piped in 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

AlsoIndigo

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers. Her friend said 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

Not many people are going to object to the suggestion that there was more than a few nutcases on both sides of the argument!

Given that the UK imports around 2 billion eggs per year I think that stopping us from eating them would be the very last suggestion we would hear from the EU!

Essexit

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers. Her friend said 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

At a street stall I met a woman who said she was voting Remain because her husband said that's what they were doing. My mum was telling on the day and told me that one woman asked her infant daughter 'in or out?' as they entered the polling station (the daughter said 'In!').

We can go back and forth with anecdotes like this all day.

TwistedFireStopper

As iSam so eloquently put it to me on the last thread, UKIP are fecked, and Carswell is in the wrong party. Not sure there is much more to add.

rottenborough

dixiedean said:

Quite extraordinary. UKIP outdoes Labour as most dysfunctional party. This would be like Len McCluskey running against Corbyn in Islington North!

Now there's an idea.

Sandpit

AlsoIndigo said:

Where does UK election law stand on what in the US context would be a PAC ? If there is an non-profit organisation with no legal connection with a candidate other than that it supports his election, uses its money to buy advertising, canvass, fund raise, accept donations, hold public meetings etc, would that be lawful ? If not, how would that be different to a national newspaper that vigorously supports a particular candidate or party ?

That's a really good question. The difference would be the burden of proof on the "no legal connection" part. In the US this is very tenuous, whereas in the U.K. It would need to be absolute. It would be up to the candidate and his agent to prove that the other people were really unconnected, so not members of their party nor having ever met or spoken. I'd imagine the police would subpoena phone and email records etc. Basically it's illegal, otherwise someone would have done it already!

Someone here must have been an agent before and can probably quote the relevant law.

AlsoIndigo

TwistedFireStopper said:

As iSam so eloquently put it to me on the last thread, UKIP are fecked, and Carswell is in the wrong party. Not sure there is much more to add.

UKIP and/or it successor party are fecked so long as A50 goes through more or less on time next month. If it doesnt, and the reasons look like legal cleverdickery, UKIP are going to start to pile on the votes even if they were led by a former professional footballer now Lord Admiral of the Fleet. Similarly if in the budget the chancellor does stupid things with inheritance/death taxes.

Sean_F

williamglenn said:

The Eurozone membership poll for Ireland is 90% Remain.

One day I hope the rest of the UK as was comes to the same view.

That's about as likely as the restoration of the House of Stuart.

CornishBlue

Essexit said:

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers. Her friend said 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

At a street stall I met a woman who said she was voting Remain because her husband said that's what they were doing. My mum was telling on the day and told me that one woman asked her infant daughter 'in or out?' as they entered the polling station (the daughter said 'In!').

We can go back and forth with anecdotes like this all day.

Exactly. Plenty of thick people who voted either way.

Animal_pb

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool (in an intro to a TV prog) say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was 'because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers'. Her friend piped in 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

Yours is an argument to abolish democracy (or at least reduce the franchise), not to remain in the EU.

Hmm. Ok, there is some overlap, I suppose.

Jonathan

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool (in an intro to a TV prog) say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was 'because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers'. Her friend piped in 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

I didn't know about the EU egg thing. Well that changes everything. £350M buys you a lot of eggs.

geoffw

TheScreamingEagles said:

FEWER not less.

Forward not back.

frpenkridge

"I heard a lady from Blackpool (in an intro to a TV prog) say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was 'because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers'. Her friend piped in 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs."
On this very site I have seen people wanting to remain because they liked being served by nice Italian boys in expensive London restaurants and having cosy chats with German tennis players in the south of France.

TwistedFireStopper

frpenkridge said:

"I heard a lady from Blackpool (in an intro to a TV prog) say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was 'because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers'. Her friend piped in 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs."
On this very site I have seen people wanting to remain because they liked being served by nice Italian boys in expensive London restaurants and having cosy chats with German tennis players in the south of France.

Ouch!

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

The Eurozone membership poll for Ireland is 90% Remain.

One day I hope the rest of the UK as was comes to the same view.

That's about as likely as the restoration of the House of Stuart.

Which happened, of course.

Sean_F

Animal_pb said:

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool (in an intro to a TV prog) say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was 'because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers'. Her friend piped in 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

Yours is an argument to abolish democracy (or at least reduce the franchise), not to remain in the EU.

Hmm. Ok, there is some overlap, I suppose.

Certainly, a lot of nineteenth century political theorists would be nodding with approval at the arguments made by the most hardline supporters of EU membership.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

rcs1000

Blue_rog said:

FPT

Stark_Dawning Posts: 2,160
1:00PM
Blue_rog said:
» show previous quotes
We will always have access to the single market, just not be a member

Okay, okay. We might still have the same 'access' as Fiji or whoever - I'm just amazed that that is itself is now regarded as a cause for celebration.

And USA

That's not necessarily true, as I've pointed out before (and as Sir Ivan pointed out in his testimony) there are quite a lot of agreements giving bilateral US-EU trade, and if we crashed out to WTO we would have worse access than the US.

Fortunately, that's quite unlikely

Richard_Tyndall

Richard_Nabavi said:

"my guess is that he and his team have a pretty good idea of his support base"

Will his team still exist, though? Diehard Kippers will presumably not be working with him, and Kipper-inclined ex-Tory activists will probably drift back to the Tories. I'd have thought he be in some trouble in a three-way contest.

I doubt it. He has engendered a huge amount of personal loyalty. He easily took the key members of his local party with him when he left the Tories and it was the EU which was the overwhelming factor in that activist support. He has stuck to his guns as an independent minded MP throughout and as Mike says he retains very high levels of support in the constituency and also crucially in areas surrounding the constituency which bodes well for post boundary change elections.

AlsoIndigo

Sandpit said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Where does UK election law stand on what in the US context would be a PAC ? If there is an non-profit organisation with no legal connection with a candidate other than that it supports his election, uses its money to buy advertising, canvass, fund raise, accept donations, hold public meetings etc, would that be lawful ? If not, how would that be different to a national newspaper that vigorously supports a particular candidate or party ?

That's a really good question. The difference would be the burden of proof on the "no legal connection" part. In the US this is very tenuous, whereas in the U.K. It would need to be absolute. It would be up to the candidate and his agent to prove that the other people were really unconnected, so not members of their party nor having ever met or spoken. I'd imagine the police would subpoena phone and email records etc. Basically it's illegal, otherwise someone would have done it already!

I would assume so, but its difficult to see how it works in the modern world. In one case because sub rosa communications are pretty easy with even moderate technical skill, but more because of what constitutes a legal relationship in this context. If you have no business relationship, accept no money, sign no contracts, but happen to be friends with the candidate, that is no more than can be said of the political correspondents of some newspapers that ramp one candidate or another.

AlastairMeeks

This is how UKIP ends. Douglas Carswell is expelled, at which point UKIP has the wasting assets of MEPs and some lunatic councillors. Without money or elected officials, it sinks back into richly deserved obscurity.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

I guess you're officially a joke of a party when you're talking about expelling your only MP. That might actually be Carswell's best option though, as it avoids his conscience requiring a by-election.

TwistedFireStopper

AlastairMeeks said:

This is how UKIP ends. Douglas Carswell is expelled, at which point UKIP has the wasting assets of MEPs and some lunatic councillors. Without money or elected officials, it sinks back into richly deserved obscurity.

After having done the thing it set out to do.

Charles

AlsoIndigo said:

Where does UK election law stand on what in the US context would be a PAC ? If there is an non-profit organisation with no legal connection with a candidate other than that it supports his election, uses its money to buy advertising, canvass, fund raise, accept donations, hold public meetings etc, would that be lawful ? If not, how would that be different to a national newspaper that vigorously supports a particular candidate or party ?

IIRC Unison pays for all those tediously predicable NHS posters at elections ("cash or credit card, sir") without it coming out of Labour's budget (because it doesn't mention a party or a candidate). If you actually named a party I think it would be trickier

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

Not in Italy though and if 5☆ win next year as polls suggest even if Le Pen loses the Euro would be in big trouble

Haven't 5 star just joined the pro-EU ALDE?

Animal_pb

Sean_F said:

Animal_pb said:

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool (in an intro to a TV prog) say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was 'because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers'. Her friend piped in 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

Yours is an argument to abolish democracy (or at least reduce the franchise), not to remain in the EU.

Hmm. Ok, there is some overlap, I suppose.

Certainly, a lot of nineteenth century political theorists would be nodding with approval at the arguments made by the most hardline supporters of EU membership.

I presume you're referencing Hegel rather than Nietzche, here.

AlsoIndigo

Jonathan said:

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool (in an intro to a TV prog) say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was 'because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers'. Her friend piped in 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

I didn't know about the EU egg thing. Well that changes everything. £350M buys you a lot of eggs.

Typical Labour, always spending the same money over and over again

TheScreamingEagles

MyBurningEars said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FEWER not less.

Nah. The fewer/less "rule" is one guy's personal stylistic taste that has somehow been misremembered and ossified into some kind of Pedants' Commandment.

http://itre.cis.upenn.edu/myl/languagelog/archives/003775.html

Proper English, as what woz written by Alfred the Great no less back as early as the 10th century, was quite happy to use "less" with countable nouns.

Swa mid læs worda swa mid ma, swæðer we hit yereccan mayon.

I'm leading the lone battle.

It is electronic mail

https://twitter.com/lisafleisher/status/836571804231684096

geoffw

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

Not in Italy though and if 5☆ win next year as polls suggest even if Le Pen loses the Euro would be in big trouble

Haven't 5 star just joined the pro-EU ALDE?

Is that the singular of Aldi?

Sean_F

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

Not in Italy though and if 5☆ win next year as polls suggest even if Le Pen loses the Euro would be in big trouble

Haven't 5 star just joined the pro-EU ALDE?

They tried to, but got turned down.

rcs1000

Essexit said:

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers. Her friend said 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

At a street stall I met a woman who said she was voting Remain because her husband said that's what they were doing. My mum was telling on the day and told me that one woman asked her infant daughter 'in or out?' as they entered the polling station (the daughter said 'In!').

We can go back and forth with anecdotes like this all day.

Are you saying Remain was the traditional values choice?

Sean_F

TwistedFireStopper said:

AlastairMeeks said:

This is how UKIP ends. Douglas Carswell is expelled, at which point UKIP has the wasting assets of MEPs and some lunatic councillors. Without money or elected officials, it sinks back into richly deserved obscurity.

After having done the thing it set out to do.

UKIP has done what it had to. It doesn't matter if the egos at the top turn on each other now.

Richard_Nabavi

Richard_Tyndall said:

I doubt it. He has engendered a huge amount of personal loyalty. He easily took the key members of his local party with him when he left the Tories and it was the EU which was the overwhelming factor in that activist support. He has stuck to his guns as an independent minded MP throughout and as Mike says he retains very high levels of support in the constituency and also crucially in areas surrounding the constituency which bodes well for post boundary change elections.

Sure, but the EU issue is over now: the referendum has happened. So he'd be standing on his own merits as an independent. Would that be enough? Maybe, but it's always difficult in our system. As you imply also, there's the boundary changes complication.

It would make a great betting market. Anyone care to price up these options for the winner of his seat (or successor seat), on the basis of the bet being void if he doesn't stand?

- Carswell standing as a Kipper
- Carswell standing as a Tory
- Carswell as Speaker
- Carswell as an independent or for any other party
- Someone other than Carswell

rcs1000

Re the Eurobarometer survey, while I believe it is honestly collected, by reputable firms, the questions tend to be rather leading and I think it rather overstates pro-EU sentiment. Nevertheless, with the Eurozone economy picking itself off the floor, one would expect support for the status quo to rise.

Sandpit

AlsoIndigo said:

Sandpit said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Where does UK election law stand on what in the US context would be a PAC ? If there is an non-profit organisation with no legal connection with a candidate other than that it supports his election, uses its money to buy advertising, canvass, fund raise, accept donations, hold public meetings etc, would that be lawful ? If not, how would that be different to a national newspaper that vigorously supports a particular candidate or party ?

That's a really good question. The difference would be the burden of proof on the "no legal connection" part. In the US this is very tenuous, whereas in the U.K. It would need to be absolute. It would be up to the candidate and his agent to prove that the other people were really unconnected, so not members of their party nor having ever met or spoken. I'd imagine the police would subpoena phone and email records etc. Basically it's illegal, otherwise someone would have done it already!

I would assume so, but its difficult to see how it works in the modern world. In one case because sub rosa communications are pretty easy with even moderate technical skill, but more because of what constitutes a legal relationship in this context. If you have no business relationship, accept no money, sign no contracts, but happen to be friends with the candidate, that is no more than can be said of the political correspondents of some newspapers that ramp one candidate or another.

There are very specific laws on election spending, on printed material, advertising etc. You'd have to convince the judge why his spending shouldn't be added to yours, which unless you've sent him a cease and desist during the campaign isn't going to wash. Especially not if you share a pint with him on Friday night at the local [party] club!

The grey area might be someone who sets up and publishes a national newspaper, purely as a front to a political party but without any involvement of the party.

As with most of these things, every reasonable loophole in electoral law has been pushed, to the point where I believe agents have gone for a stay in the big house before.

Jonathan

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I doubt it. He has engendered a huge amount of personal loyalty. He easily took the key members of his local party with him when he left the Tories and it was the EU which was the overwhelming factor in that activist support. He has stuck to his guns as an independent minded MP throughout and as Mike says he retains very high levels of support in the constituency and also crucially in areas surrounding the constituency which bodes well for post boundary change elections.

Sure, but the EU issue is over now: the referendum has happened. So he'd be standing on his own merits as an independent. Would that be enough? Maybe, but it's always difficult in our system. As you imply also, there's the boundary changes complication.

It would make a great betting market. Anyone care to price up these options for the winner of his seat (or successor seat), on the basis of the bet being void if he doesn't stand:

- Carswell standing as a Kipper
- Carswell standing as a Tory
- Carswell as Speaker
- Carswell as an independent or for any other party
- Someone other than Carswell

He's in a difficult spot for someone who lives and breathes politics and the Commons in particular.

He probably ought to sit tight at least a week. UKIP could go through several iterations and leaders by then.

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

MyBurningEars said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FEWER not less.

Nah. The fewer/less "rule" is one guy's personal stylistic taste that has somehow been misremembered and ossified into some kind of Pedants' Commandment.

http://itre.cis.upenn.edu/myl/languagelog/archives/003775.html

Proper English, as what woz written by Alfred the Great no less back as early as the 10th century, was quite happy to use "less" with countable nouns.

Swa mid læs worda swa mid ma, swæðer we hit yereccan mayon.

I'm leading the lone battle.

It is electronic mail

https://twitter.com/lisafleisher/status/836571804231684096

Hyphens should be used to identify nouns constructed out of verbs (wind-up), to avoid ambiguity (superfluous-hair remover), to avoid the possibility of misreading (mini-series), and to avoid mispronunciation (co-operation). Otherwise, they are an abomination unto the Lord.

OldKingCole

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

I guess you're officially a joke of a party when you're talking about expelling your only MP. That might actually be Carswell's best option though, as it avoids his conscience requiring a by-election.

They’ve done that once already. Bob Spink, the Tory MP for Castle Point defected to UKIP halfway through the 2005-10 Parliament. He then disagreed with them over something or other, was expelled and became an Independent.

Mind, I’ve seen boxes of frogs which were sane compared with Bob Spink.

Edit. Bob ‘Ukipped' in 2008.

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I doubt it. He has engendered a huge amount of personal loyalty. He easily took the key members of his local party with him when he left the Tories and it was the EU which was the overwhelming factor in that activist support. He has stuck to his guns as an independent minded MP throughout and as Mike says he retains very high levels of support in the constituency and also crucially in areas surrounding the constituency which bodes well for post boundary change elections.

Sure, but the EU issue is over now: the referendum has happened. So he'd be standing on his own merits as an independent. Would that be enough? Maybe, but it's always difficult in our system. As you imply also, there's the boundary changes complication.

It would make a great betting market. Anyone care to price up these options for the winner of his seat (or successor seat), on the basis of the bet being void if he doesn't stand?

- Carswell standing as a Kipper
- Carswell standing as a Tory
- Carswell as Speaker
- Carswell as an independent or for any other party
- Someone other than Carswell

New Leicester City boss?

SquareRoot

Here I am with yet one more arge g and t and wondering how many other of our parties might try to self destruct.. weather in Cyprus is crap today but it's at least 15deg warmer so I hear

Richard_Nabavi

SquareRoot said:

Here I am another large g and t and wondering how many other of our parties might try to self destruct..

The Greens have been quiet recently...

Richard_Tyndall

AlastairMeeks said:

This is how UKIP ends. Douglas Carswell is expelled, at which point UKIP has the wasting assets of MEPs and some lunatic councillors. Without money or elected officials, it sinks back into richly deserved obscurity.

Having achieved it's goals that is an almost perfect conclusion to their existence.

[Deleted User]

SeanT said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

I guess the people of the Eurozone nations (is it ok to call them nations, or does that offend the federalist in you?) don't really have any other choice after 18 years do they?

If I was a citizen of a eurozone state, I too would support euro membership, because essentially there is no Exit Door from the euro-penthouse, just a lift door with no lift behind, meaning you step out, plunge to the bottom and break your back, or simply die.

Look how difficult Brexit is proving, and we're only on the fourth floor of the EU skyscraper (not in the euro, not in Schengen). Basically we're having to climb out the window, shimmy down a drainpipe, and just hope we don't slip, and snap an ankle.

Once you're in the euro room, you're in forever. So you have to support membership. The alternative is a catastrophic fall.

And this, of course, is no coincidence. The EU was always meant to be an irreversible political project of ever-closer union, it's written in the founding Treaties, FFS, it's part of the architectural design.

Indeed the man who wrote Article 50 said it was deliberately phrased to make it so hard to Leave that would it would never be used.

...and the building is on fire and starting to fall over...

Sean_F

SeanT said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

I guess the people of the Eurozone nations (is it ok to call them nations, or does that offend the federalist in you?) don't really have any other choice after 18 years do they?

If I was a citizen of a eurozone state, I too would support euro membership, because essentially there is no Exit Door from the euro-penthouse, just a lift door with no lift behind, meaning you step out, plunge to the bottom and break your back, or simply die.

Look how difficult Brexit is proving, and we're only on the fourth floor of the EU skyscraper (not in the euro, not in Schengen). Basically we're having to climb out the window, shimmy down a drainpipe, and just hope we don't slip, and snap an ankle.

Once you're in the euro room, you're in forever. So you have to support membership. The alternative is a catastrophic fall.

And this, of course, is no coincidence. The EU was always meant to be an irreversible political project of ever-closer union, it's written in the founding Treaties, FFS, it's part of the architectural design.

Indeed the man who wrote Article 50 said it was deliberately phrased to make it so hard to Leave that would it would never be used.

The path to EU integration is always to offer a choice between something bad, and something worse.

Essexit

rcs1000 said:

Essexit said:

Roger said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Meanwhile Mr & Mrs Smith at 29 Acacia Avenue think that they gave their vote, saw the result, shrugged, and left the politicians to get on with carrying it out. They will probably not notice the vast majority of this posturing on either side. If it isn't carried out, they will probably notice, and the consequence for political careers at the next election may well be unfortunate, or even regrettable.

But it's not going to be like that. We didn't vote for a cataclysm, nor for a new order, but for a huge mess that will consume all our political energies for the next decade or more. Even Acacia Avenue will have an opinion, even if it's just "A plague on the lot of them!"

It's a highway robbery by people we don't know because they were masked but they're smelly and their leaders are nasty opportunists who used them for their own purposes because they're ignorant and don't trust foreigners.

They've taken everything we value but we should accept it with good grace because there are more of them than us.

And the fatuous hypobole prize 2017 goes to Roger! Your wife and kids spontaneously combust ? Did your house suddenly vanish ? Did your car collapse into the dust ? will you continue to live in a beautiful part of the world making loads of money doing a job you love ? are you hyperventilating sneery elitist who despises the plebs daring to express their views unless they happen to agree with yours ?

Eurosceptics were in a similar position in 1976, and have campaigned doggedly for the last 40 years to get to where we are now. You can do the same, of course you might be getting on a bit by then, but you cant have everything, and you will still have more than 99% of the world does, even after BrExit.

I thought it was quite poetic! I heard a lady from Blackpool say the reason she wanted us out of the EU was because they were trying to stop us eating eggs and said that we had to have straight cucumbers. Her friend said 'it's ridiculous that foreigners can stop us eating eggs.

Well not half as ridiculous as those two being entrusted with whether or not we change the way we are governed

At a street stall I met a woman who said she was voting Remain because her husband said that's what they were doing. My mum was telling on the day and told me that one woman asked her infant daughter 'in or out?' as they entered the polling station (the daughter said 'In!').

We can go back and forth with anecdotes like this all day.

Are you saying Remain was the traditional values choice?

Traditional values/infantile, on the basis of my anecdotes.

MarqueeMark

I'm hoping Carswell leaves UKIP on the first day of their annual conference. There would be a nice symmetry to that.....

rcs1000

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

I guess the people of the Eurozone nations (is it ok to call them nations, or does that offend the federalist in you?) don't really have any other choice after 18 years do they?

If I was a citizen of a eurozone state, I too would support euro membership, because essentially there is no Exit Door from the euro-penthouse, just a lift door with no lift behind, meaning you step out, plunge to the bottom and break your back, or simply die.

Look how difficult Brexit is proving, and we're only on the fourth floor of the EU skyscraper (not in the euro, not in Schengen). Basically we're having to climb out the window, shimmy down a drainpipe, and just hope we don't slip, and snap an ankle.

Once you're in the euro room, you're in forever. So you have to support membership. The alternative is a catastrophic fall.

And this, of course, is no coincidence. The EU was always meant to be an irreversible political project of ever-closer union, it's written in the founding Treaties, FFS, it's part of the architectural design.

Indeed the man who wrote Article 50 said it was deliberately phrased to make it so hard to Leave that would it would never be used.

The path to EU integration is always to offer a choice between something bad, and something worse.

I thought that was the path to spousal agreement?

Roger

It's not really surprising that a party which is so mean spirited to foreigners and pretty much everyone else should behave in the same way to their colleagues.

Could anyone 'NICE' be a leader of UKIP?

Jonathan

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

I guess the people of the Eurozone nations (is it ok to call them nations, or does that offend the federalist in you?) don't really have any other choice after 18 years do they?

If I was a citizen of a eurozone state, I too would support euro membership, because essentially there is no Exit Door from the euro-penthouse, just a lift door with no lift behind, meaning you step out, plunge to the bottom and break your back, or simply die.

Look how difficult Brexit is proving, and we're only on the fourth floor of the EU skyscraper (not in the euro, not in Schengen). Basically we're having to climb out the window, shimmy down a drainpipe, and just hope we don't slip, and snap an ankle.

Once you're in the euro room, you're in forever. So you have to support membership. The alternative is a catastrophic fall.

And this, of course, is no coincidence. The EU was always meant to be an irreversible political project of ever-closer union, it's written in the founding Treaties, FFS, it's part of the architectural design.

Indeed the man who wrote Article 50 said it was deliberately phrased to make it so hard to Leave that would it would never be used.

The path to EU integration is always to offer a choice between something bad, and something worse.

Back to the Westminster system, proudly managing the decline of the UK for over 150 years.

Sean_F

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/836561153966895104

I guess the people of the Eurozone nations (is it ok to call them nations, or does that offend the federalist in you?) don't really have any other choice after 18 years do they?

If I was a citizen of a eurozone state, I too would support euro membership, because essentially there is no Exit Door from the euro-penthouse, just a lift door with no lift behind, meaning you step out, plunge to the bottom and break your back, or simply die.

Look how difficult Brexit is proving, and we're only on the fourth floor of the EU skyscraper (not in the euro, not in Schengen). Basically we're having to climb out the window, shimmy down a drainpipe, and just hope we don't slip, and snap an ankle.

Once you're in the euro room, you're in forever. So you have to support membership. The alternative is a catastrophic fall.

And this, of course, is no coincidence. The EU was always meant to be an irreversible political project of ever-closer union, it's written in the founding Treaties, FFS, it's part of the architectural design.

Indeed the man who wrote Article 50 said it was deliberately phrased to make it so hard to Leave that would it would never be used.

The path to EU integration is always to offer a choice between something bad, and something worse.

I thought that was the path to spousal agreement?

That as well.

GeoffM

williamglenn said:

The Eurozone membership poll for Ireland is 90% Remain.

One day I hope the rest of the UK as was comes to the same view.

That's probably already the case.

I suspect that the UK already views Irish support for the Eurozone as being at about 90%

MyBurningEars

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

I guess you're officially a joke of a party when you're talking about expelling your only MP. That might actually be Carswell's best option though, as it avoids his conscience requiring a by-election.

They’ve done that once already. Bob Spink, the Tory MP for Castle Point defected to UKIP halfway through the 2005-10 Parliament. He then disagreed with them over something or other, was expelled and became an Independent.

Mind, I’ve seen boxes of frogs which were sane compared with Bob Spink.

Edit. Bob ‘Ukipped' in 2008.

I don't think Dr Bob was officially a UKIP MP though.

He got quite a strong personal following when he stood, effectively as an independent, at the 2010 election - under the banner of his "Save Our Green Belt Party".

http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/5059019.Eight_join_MP_in_bid_to_save_green_belt/

logical_song

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

How do UKIP MEPs justify their existence since the referendum? Shouldn't they leave en masse and stop claiming expenses.

Stark_Dawning

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

How do UKIP MEPs justify their existence since the referendum? Shouldn't they leave en masse and stop claiming expenses.

'We haven't left yet.'

Philip_Thompson

Stark_Dawning said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

How do UKIP MEPs justify their existence since the referendum? Shouldn't they leave en masse and stop claiming expenses.

'We haven't left yet.'

Quite a simple reason really! Especially when MEPs need to vote on our exit.

rcs1000

Philip_Thompson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

How do UKIP MEPs justify their existence since the referendum? Shouldn't they leave en masse and stop claiming expenses.

'We haven't left yet.'

Quite a simple reason really! Especially when MEPs need to vote on our exit.

Do our own MEPs get to vote as part of the European Parliament?

MarqueeMark

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

This is how UKIP ends. Douglas Carswell is expelled, at which point UKIP has the wasting assets of MEPs and some lunatic councillors. Without money or elected officials, it sinks back into richly deserved obscurity.

Probably true, except that UKIP consistently get millions of votes, because a lot of WWC and Welsh people like their brand of anti-immigration, ban-the-burqa, sod political correctness non-Tory right-wingery.

Where will those votes go if UKIP disappear? These voters are culturally averse to the Tories (and the Tories are about to disappoint them on EU migration). They'll never go back to a leftwing, public sector jihadi-hugging Labour party.

The LDs lol.

Either those millions of kippers simply stop voting, or SOMEONE will find a way to hoover them up.

There's a fair few Kippers who were ex-Tories and in the absence of any alternative, will come home to the party that actually gave them a referendum. That's my experience from the doorstep, anyway.

And some former Labour folks might have found UKIP a temporary stepping-stone to get across to the Tories too. I haven't met so many of them, fair to say.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

How do UKIP MEPs justify their existence since the referendum? Shouldn't they leave en masse and stop claiming expenses.

'We haven't left yet.'

Quite a simple reason really! Especially when MEPs need to vote on our exit.

Do our own MEPs get to vote as part of the European Parliament?

Who else can represent EU citizens with UK passports?

paulbarker

"For a Party with" how many members ? The last official figures give UKIP 33,000 members but at that point the number had been falling rapidly, I guess it might be a lot less now.
Compare that to The Libdems with 84,000 & still rising.

AlsoIndigo

Roger said:

It's not really surprising that a party which is so mean spirited to foreigners and pretty much everyone else should behave in the same way to their colleagues.

Could anyone 'NICE' be a leader of UKIP?

The problem with "nice" in politics, is it usually contains the small print "by spending someone else's money". In good times that is an ideological arguing point, in the current times someone else doesn't have any money, and it gets more tricky.

Richard_Tyndall

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I doubt it. He has engendered a huge amount of personal loyalty. He easily took the key members of his local party with him when he left the Tories and it was the EU which was the overwhelming factor in that activist support. He has stuck to his guns as an independent minded MP throughout and as Mike says he retains very high levels of support in the constituency and also crucially in areas surrounding the constituency which bodes well for post boundary change elections.

Sure, but the EU issue is over now: the referendum has happened. So he'd be standing on his own merits as an independent. Would that be enough? Maybe, but it's always difficult in our system. As you imply also, there's the boundary changes complication.

It would make a great betting market. Anyone care to price up these options for the winner of his seat (or successor seat), on the basis of the bet being void if he doesn't stand:

- Carswell standing as a Kipper
- Carswell standing as a Tory
- Carswell as Speaker
- Carswell as an independent or for any other party
- Someone other than Carswell

He's in a difficult spot for someone who lives and breathes politics and the Commons in particular.

He probably ought to sit tight at least a week. UKIP could go through several iterations and leaders by then.

His best bet would be to be expelled. No need for a by election and he must realise UKIP will never be the party he might have hoped

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

"my guess is that he and his team have a pretty good idea of his support base"

Will his team still exist, though? Diehard Kippers will presumably not be working with him, and Kipper-inclined ex-Tory activists will probably drift back to the Tories. I'd have thought he be in some trouble in a three-way contest.

I disagree w Mike, Carswell is not THAT popular in Clacton. I canvassed Frinton at the by Election and many conservatives absolutely hated him. Jay wick is a khazi and people there would vote for Banks. I think he'd lose in a three way contest w Banks and Conservatives, & the Conservatives would win

Philip_Thompson

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

This is how UKIP ends. Douglas Carswell is expelled, at which point UKIP has the wasting assets of MEPs and some lunatic councillors. Without money or elected officials, it sinks back into richly deserved obscurity.

Probably true, except that UKIP consistently get millions of votes, because a lot of WWC and Welsh people like their brand of anti-immigration, ban-the-burqa, sod political correctness non-Tory right-wingery.

Where will those votes go if UKIP disappear? These voters are culturally averse to the Tories (and the Tories are about to disappoint them on EU migration). They'll never go back to a leftwing, public sector jihadi-hugging Labour party.

The LDs lol.

Either those millions of kippers simply stop voting, or SOMEONE will find a way to hoover them up.

I suspect the LDs which is where I suspect most of their votes came from in the first place.

In the vast majority of constituencies up and down the country the UKIP vote rise was almost exactly the Lib Dem vote fall. Politics geeks like ourselves can be too obsessed over the minutiae of what parties represent when in reality what people vote for when they vote "Lib Dem/UKIP" is normally essentially no more complicated than "none of the above".

AlsoIndigo

frpenkridge said:

On this very site I have seen people wanting to remain because they liked being served by nice Italian boys in expensive London restaurants and having cosy chats with German tennis players in the south of France.

Did you miss out some wanting easy access to their pied-a-terre in agreeably low cost areas of Eastern Europe, conveniently overlooking the neo-fascist (in their terms) president with an unfortunate record on pronouncements concerning the EU and immigration ?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/836568645748801536

How do UKIP MEPs justify their existence since the referendum? Shouldn't they leave en masse and stop claiming expenses.

The same way MEP's from other parties do.