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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mapping across – how the Brexit vote might translate onto the next general election
(Source: Prof John Curtice)
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Assuming that, as planned, we leave the EU in 2019, then will the leave/remain divide not be pretty moot by a 2020 election? We will have left already, life and politics would have moved onto other things.
After the 6am embargo for decent PBers ....
'Illegal immigrants break the law at lower rates than American citizens.'
So all Americans are, apparently, criminals. Indeed statistically speaking for that sentence to be accurate more than 100% of Americans must be criminals.
The writer doesn't appear to be speaking ironically either.
I don't like Donald Trump but when you see just how stupid his opponents are his success begins to make more sense.
........and of course there are the 90% of 'experts' 70% of MP's and 100% of ex Prime Ministers to remind them that were warned
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/
As for 'the good folk of Hartlepool' (or an approximation, 'Leave voters'):
If Britain does secure the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May has suggested do you think it would be good or bad for Britain?
Net Good: +76
Do you think this outcome would or would not respect the result of the referendum?
Net Respect: +68
And would you personally be happy or unhappy with this outcome?
Net Happy: +75
How much confidence, if any, do you have in Theresa May to negotiate the sort of Brexit deal she says she wants for Britain?
Net Confidence: +51
And do you think the other member states of the European Union will or will not agree to the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May is proposing?
Net Agree: -20
Theresa May also said that "no deal is better than a bad deal". Which of the following best reflects your view?
Net 'no deal': +66
Theresa May suggested that Britain would walk away from negotiations if other European Union countries are not prepared to offer a good deal. This would mean Britain leaving the EU without a new trade deal and tariffs being applies to imports and exports between Britain and the EU. Do you think Britain should or should not be prepared to walk away from a bad deal?
Net 'walk away': +74
Three birds with one stone at the next election perhaps
Interesting header. I missed all Andy's work during the referendum. Not being mathematically minded I tend to skip over anything to do with spreadsheets. Clearly a big mistake. Well done Andy!
- themselves, or
- politicians?
If 'politicians'
- British ones or
- 'Foreigners'?
It looks like a desperate bid to put her case beyond doubt and drumbeat her rivals into submission - and the fact it was utterly wrong doesn't bother her. Problem is, that seems to have been the modus operandi of the Clinton/Remain campaigns: and then they wonder why sufficient numbers of people voted against them to secure their defeat.
(Incidentally I voted Remain and would have voted for Clinton.)
Ultra Remain is not desired by most voters.
indeed, even reluctant remain was rejected by most voters.
And there may not be a British Government to blame.
The Pollyanna thinking on which Tory Brexit is based will almost certainly, as a more considered Tory John Major, has pointed out, turn out to be dangerously optimistic.
However, sometimes, that’s impossible to do. Lets hope that, if this is the case, this is one of those times.
I want to live, and I want my grandchildren to live after I have gone, in a prosperous Britain.
Using occams razor, I'd say it was more likely that you were being your usual Rogerdamus than the people of an entire town were wrong....
Cheers for the analysis Mr Meeks. – 5 months on and I’m not entirely convinced the British Election Study from last October still reflects the attitude of voters today, or that it will remain relevant at all, come GE2020. - For the vast majority I expect, Brexit will have been done, dusted and forgotten, with the old ways returned to what they were.
'New study reveals that people behave like their names'
Not necessarily great for someone called Roger.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/faces-names-how-to-choose-pick-decide-people-children-boys-girls-herbert-a7602536.html
If Britain does secure the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May has suggested do you think it would be good or bad for Britain?
Good: 32
Bad: 38
Do you think this outcome would or would not respect the result of the referendum?
Respect: 56
Not Respect: 19
Theresa May also said that "no deal is better than a bad deal". Which of the following best reflects your view?
No deal: 28
Bad deal: 30
Theresa May suggested that Britain would walk away from negotiations if other European Union countries are not prepared to offer a good deal. This would mean Britain leaving the EU without a new trade deal and tariffs being applies to imports and exports between Britain and the EU. Do you think Britain should or should not be prepared to walk away from a bad deal?
Walk away: 34
Not walk away: 45
And Remainers are even less likely to think the EU will give us the deal May set out:
And do you think the other member states of the European Union will or will not agree to the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May is proposing?
Net agree: -54
So while Leavers are strongly behind May's plan - but don't think the EU will agree, a good third of Remainers could live with it (and over half think it would respect the referendum result) but over half don't think the EU will agree to it.
Amazingly Van Jones and Chris Wallace thought it was possibly the best they'd heard from a president.
A few nitwit journalists said mean things on Twitter about the SEAL widow and were mobbed - but the serious criticism is aimed at Pelosi and Ellison for not clapping and remaining seated whilst others stood and applauded for almost 2 mins.
The partisan dead end the Dems are going down is crap optics. A chunk even booed at moves to support victims of illegal immigrant crimes. Who's side are they on? is a recurring theme.
Then if this writer wrote "undocumented" thinking that being an illegal immigrant in itself is not wrong, and a sub editor changed it to comply with style not realising that it would make the sentence be ridiculous...
It would however be even better if SeanT's middle name was Roger
Though I suspect, like you, that the writer wasn't including the first crime.
Oh, and thanks for the thread!
But certainly by definition they are in the country illegally.
But it would have to be a shockingly high rate to beat the 100% starting point.
By the way, thank you for the thread header. Unfortunately as long as Corbyn - who is clearly pretty happy with the outcome of the referendum, whatever his public statements - is in place, the answer to your final question is no. If Lewis replaced him there might be movement I suppose, but it's hard to see that happening unless Corbyn dies (which I wouldn't wish on anybody) or resigns (which he is far too stubborn to do). That's not great news but we are where we are.
BREAKING: 25 of 33 Senators Up for Election in 2018 are DEMS (10 are in RED States Trump Won; NONE are Truly 'SAFE') https://t.co/PPNnxV9Mmi
Non violent crime: ~8 million extrapolated
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States 2487 /100,000 x ~321.5 million
Speeding tickets: http://www.statisticbrain.com/driving-citation-statistics/ 41,000,000
Which I make to a grand total of 51.2 million crimes. If we render children as void then
That yields a maxima of ~ 260 million adults (I think) = 0.2crimes per person.
Firms bidding for government contracts asked if they back Brexit
Department for International Trade says tech companies should have the right ‘cultural fit’ if they want to be hired
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/01/firms-bidding-for-government-contracts-asked-if-they-back-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw
It was well received by Congress and who knows but maybe, just maybe, he will become more Presidential and confound his critics.
The Remainers tell us that the Earth is flat, and ends at the borders of the EU.
An important aspect to consider is that many Remain voters will wish their side had won but accept the democratic result. That same shift won't happen in the opposite direction because Leave won (although there's a possible case of buyer's remorse for some, depending how things go).
Plus, a lot of aspects will likely be resolved by the next election. If we assume they are, would voters wish to cast their ballots based on past events?
Again, we need to think of whether Corbyn will be there. Punishing the Conservatives if you dislike how things have gone by voting for a socialist, unilateralist, friend of Hamas is a bit like punishing your wife by setting fire to your house.
F1: testing day three. Will the McLaren work? Will I get any bloody work done?
There's a temptation to draw simple, if not simplistic conclusions from figures and I'm probably about to fall into the trap but here goes..
Stodge's Eleventh Law of Politics states "don't go looking for irony in politics, it'll find you". The 23/6 Referendum might have had, as one of its main aims, the reunification of the Conservative Party and the ending of the decades-long open wound that was European policy but the truth is 23/6 has exposed Labour's similar but quieter problem.
Both parties have been split since the 1970s if not before and while the late Sir Gerald Kaufmann remarked about the 1983 Manifesto being "the longest suicide note", it contained within it a commitment to withdraw from the EU - I draw you then to Stodge's Ninth Law which states "don't deride a Party's policies - today's insanity could be tomorrow's sanity".
The question is then what do we make of the 28% or REMAIN voters who support the Conservatives - as others have argued, with a tinge of desperation, we will have left the EU and all this will be done with and forgotten and "Global Britain", rather like the Crimson Permanent Assurance, will be sailing toward the sunlit horizons.
Perhaps.
We can't know for sure whether the 23/6 vote will still be resonating in 2020 - the chances are it will in some form because it's such a seminal event with considerable economic, societal and perhaps even cultural impacts. Whether the present (as it will be then - it's the future now) will be the glorious utopia promised by some or the chaotic dystopia feared by others is impossible to know at this time.
Irrespective of all this, "the Government" will have a record to defend and on which to be held to account. Simply basing voting intention on the event which caused that Government's formation and ignoring the following four years seems spurious reasoning. As always, the wallet, purse or pocketbook (if you are of the American persuasion) will be of significance. As has been remarked, the first half of the 2010s has been very tough for a lot of people with stagnation in living standards at best - part of the allure and the USP for "Global Britain" is the unfocussed promise we will be "better off" outside the EU - that can be defined and quantified in many different ways and challenged in as many. The problem for now is we have nothing to measure and nothing with which to measure against - May sails along (back to the Crimson Permanent Assurance) on a wave of everyone's expectations and desires.
Shame they can't get a cartoonist who is funny, mind...
Then another crime is committed, albeit consequentially and indirectly.
PB haven't had a funny or topical cartoonist for a few years now.
That is not what the job description says at all, I believe the story has a misleading header.
Surely being committed to seeking the best outcome for the UK upon departure is important for these departments ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJuvNMLBcQk
The tories seem more united on this now than I recall the party being in my adult life. The remain wing is one Ken Clarke who presumably will not stand again. Labour are much more divided but they have a sea of troubles and I don't see this particular one affecting their vote much.
The importance of Leave has been greatly overstated on both sides. I think most people will be surprised how little difference it makes. Despite the dire warnings from both Major and Osborne the effects at the margins will be too small to spot unless one looks very hard and impossible to prove given that we only have one reality. In practice any effect will be swamped by much bigger changes in both our own and the international economy some positive and some negative. It really is time to move on.
You actually wore different colour badges depending on why you'd been sent to a camp. Green for criminals, black for gypsies and prostitutes, pink for gays and rapists etc.
a) They were loyal conservatives following their leader
b) They believed in Dave personally and were following him
c) They believed Project Fear
a) Will mostly be following Theresa now and leaning toward Leave
b) Will dwindle but there will be the TSE tendency left, others will move to the LDs
c) Will have mostly decided it was bullshit and adjusted their views accordingly.
Personally I'm surprised just how few Remainer Conservatives have demonstrated Stockholm Syndrome. It shows just what a poor job Leave supporters have done in reaching out to even the most potentially persuadable Remainers.
"Contractors bidding for work with the government are being asked to affirm that they back Brexit.
Liam Fox’s Department for International Trade (DIT) has inserted a clause into advertisements inviting tech companies to bid for work, saying that in order to have the right “cultural fit” for the task, they must “be committed to the best possible outcome for the United Kingdom following its departure from the European Union”.
Pro-Brexit ministers have sometimes been frustrated by civil servants’ lack of enthusiasm for the complex task of unpicking Britain’s close relationship with the EU and appear to be determined to hire firms that share their optimism."
This split between Leave and Remain voters is now artificial. It's been decided. Only the details are to be concluded.
Only a few flat-earthers remain to howl at the moon, as the rest of us have moved on.
Nearly three-quarters of Welsh voters think only EU citizens with the right skills should live and work in a post-Brexit UK, a BBC Wales poll suggests. Over half - 57% - of those questioned felt MPs should support the referendum result, while 24% said they should take account of their constituents' view on Brexit and 17% their own conscience.
On the economic impact, 44% thought it would be negative and 33% positive.
Meanwhile a majority of 60% said Donald Trump's state visit should go ahead. Only 38% wanted the UK government to withdraw the invitation.
On the freedom of movement to live and work in the UK post-Brexit, the poll showed 74% agreed that only those EU citizens with the "right" skills or qualifications should be allowed in, with 19% believing that nothing should change and just 6% wanting the door firmly shut to EU immigrants.
When questioned about the impact of Brexit on the Welsh economy, 44% thought it would have a negative impact with 33% saying it would be positive.
Martin Boon of ICM Unlimited, which carried out this year's St David's Day poll for BBC Wales, said: "With the triggering of Article 50 likely to be no more than a month or so away, the decision to leave the EU still has the power to somewhat mystify.
"Wales voted marginally to leave, and this BBC Cymru Wales data confirms that the public probably did so despite knowing that it would harm the Welsh economy and their own personal finances."
He added: "What's been described as 'project fear' may not have been convincing in comparison to immigration and control arguments, but that doesn't mean it failed to get through: 44% think the Welsh economy will be negatively impacted and 30% think their own finances will suffer - both being higher than those who think that positive outcomes will accrue.
"Despite this acknowledgement, 'carry on' is the main message that people in Wales want Theresa May to hear."
As a non-Conservative, I quite like the idea of holding this Government to account on its record beyond leaving the EU as I suspect by 2020 there will be plenty of areas in which it will be found wanting but that's just me.
As for Conservative "unity", we'll see. With the exceptions of Ken Clarke and John Major, neither of whom have much to lose, we've heard little in the way of dissenting voices but that may change with time and especially if, for example, the City doesn't fare so well in the A50 negotiations.
Of course, the Conservatives can only prosper while Corbyn leads the Opposition - that won't last forever and as sure as night follows day, Labour will re-group and become the credible alternative - I'm inclined to think it won't happen this side of 2020 but to assume it won't ever happen is naïve. Add into that day to day Government bungling and the growing sense we're all fed up with that Theresa May telling us what's what and there's plenty in the medium and longer term for Conservatives to consider. For now, though, all's right with the world.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269840/SARAH-VINE-wanted-death-taxes-d-vote-communist.html#ixzz4a3ZHmhjM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-speech-fact-check-lies-claims-joint-address-congress-jobs-immigration-pipeline-a7604861.html
The distinction is important for people who enter the country legally, but overstay visas. They are not strictly speaking criminals, though they are breaking the law.
TRUMP: "Ninety-four million Americans are out of the labor force."
THE FACTS: That's true, but for the vast majority of them, it's because they choose to be.
Where's the false statement?
TRUMP: His budget plan will offer "one of the largest increases in national defence spending in American history".
THE FACTS: Three times in recent years, Congress raised defence budgets by larger percentages than the 54 billion dollars, or 10%, increase Mr Trump proposes. The base defense budget grew by 41 billion dollars, or 14.3%, in 2002; by 37 billion dollars, or 11.3%, in 2003, and by 47 billion dollars, or 10.9%, in 2008, according to Defence Department figures.
Since when didn't top three qualify as "one of the largest".
Do we want contractors who are not committed to the best possible outcome, or who are committed to the worst possible outcome?
You are an intelligent adult. You will either reconcile yourself to the situation, or not. It's entirely up to you. I've no interest in trying to persuade or mollify you or any other Remain voter. It seems like a very unprofitable way for any of us to spend our time.
I'm worried about the future, but I always have been. Having lived through 25% inflation, 15% base rates and several recessions, I'm sanguine that my life will continue much as it always has done. I'll adapt.
More trouble for Uber:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-39124096
Oh dear, what a shame.