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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon stays in the race and the morning’s big betting move to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon stays in the race and the morning’s big betting move to Juppe comes to an end
Both Fillon and Macron move up in the French President betting following Fillon statement that he's staying in race. pic.twitter.com/60j5cASg4h
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Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 2004
Edit: or not
C
So I'm happy.
Don't look.
Go with your gut feeling.
Fillon +200
Baroin +80
Everyone else -55
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z1elxz48n9/TimesResults_170228_VI_Trackers_W.pdf (Page 3)
Sometimes, people want a harsh ruler.
Marine Le Pen £277.25
Francois Fillon £99.14
Alain Juppe -£243.58
Francois Baroin £22,584.23
Field -£370.71
The Baroin position was acquired [much of it at 500.0] in the immediate aftermath of Fillon's speech!
Le Pen + 6.9k
Fillon +8.4k
Juppe +7.7k
Baroin +23k
Hamon +2k
Rest various shades of red, with one or two exceptions
@MarqueeMark I don't believe that I said that Corbyn only had to win over the 36% of DKs.
Again .....
In the YouGov polling of April 22nd 2015, the last one I can find before the election, the don't know score on that exact question was 27 %.
In the January before the election, it was 39%.
Full tables can be found here: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7rj2tjjm1c/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-Perceptions-050515.pdf
Don't Know at 36 % is entirely consistent with this question as it was answered for the 2010-2015 parliament.
Editors - I am happy to do a post on this sort of thing. Government approval is always negative. Opposition leadership ratings - when they're gone, they're gone.
I don't know the answer to that issue though - as you say it happens on left and right, and they do it because we like it, on the whole.
CH4 have form on this kind of issue. I remember them doing a big story on an academic who allegedly had been refused entry to work in the UK due to tougher immigration laws...which turned out to be total horses##t. Even the most simple googling showed it wasn't true.
Miliband never once beat DKs in this tracker for 5 whole years.
April 23rd will that mean a white flag with a red cross?
The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit
Goes to show how bad Ed Miliband was!
I'd be very interested to read a post by yourself on this topic.
See: http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/p724i3euyc/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220415.pdf#page=2
There's 11 % don't know on the headline figure, it's just usually factored out.
This was my initial point at the start of this.
The betting industry has gone the same way now that it is easy to make prices because of Betfair, but the crap traders still get shown up for what they are (Me in Stoke for instance!)
But it's all supposition. Right now Fillon is the candidate, and there is no clear way to eject him. And if they try, they risk shedding even more votes Macron's way through the inevitable loss of momentum that comes through in fighting.
This is why a confrontation is so risky for the EU. If it tries to impose a punitive trade regime in order to compel Britain to accept the free movement of people – and thus a surrender of sovereignty – London will retaliate. The Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Prime Minister said this in no uncertain terms when they threatened to explore alternative tax regimes. This would be an asymmetrical struggle. On trade, the EU would at first have the upper hand; indeed, a trade war is just about the only thing that Brussels can wage effectively.
Unlike Greece, however, Britain cannot be forced to its knees by economic measures alone, and unlike Greece it would adapt and diversify. London would apply the considerable talents and resources of its various institutions to subverting the EU. The UK would be unable to uphold its security guarantees in Nato if those being protected were engaged in a vicious war against British livelihoods.
The EU may be a club and it can make whatever rules it likes, but it should never forget that the Anglo-Americans own the freehold of the property on which the club is built.
On the whole a fanciful article based on a misreading of Trump combined with a rose-tinted view of the UK. The author clearly longs for the days when men, born in Dublin, like him could stand up at the despatch box and send gunboats to China.