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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa Maybe? Definitely not
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa Maybe? Definitely not
At the turn of the year Theresa May was besieged by many similar opinion pieces, several of them prompted by Sir Ivan Rogers’ resignation on 3rd January. Indecisiveness was the central charge, specifically over Brexit but also with regard to the operation of her Downing Street office and some rushed and/or reversed policy announcements. Her predecessor’s alleged nickname for her – “Submarine” – was used against her in articles that specifically did call for a running commentary.
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Very good analysis Mr Price
It would take a Supersonic effort to Bring it on Down
No wonder Corbynites and Cameroons are turning to Cigarettes and Alcohol
What a Digsy's Dinner of a post!
If our departure is either ok or actively good, *and* Corbyn stays, May could have an era-defining victory.
Mr. T, also 'pioneer'.
Since Britain is almost certainly going to concede on the point eventually (as, for that matter are the EU27), there's a lot to be said for seeing what we can get for it by trying the unexpected gambit of being nice.
As it happens, it seems to have worked out well, so far at least, for the Article 50 business. However, it's an approach which is not without danger; in politics, as in war, your opponents don't stay still, and her patient, systematic approach could leave her dangerously outflanked or simply overtaken by events outside her control. Luckily, her UK opponents are in such complete disarray that this doesn't matter, but it might not always be so.
Give 'em an inch and they'll take a foot. Before you know it, you don't have a leg to stand on.
Quite apart from anything else, even with the best will in the world, the EU27 will find it hard to agree on anything. It would be mad to take away their incentive to agree as quickly as possible on rights for Brits in the EU.
And yes, she is certainly a serious politician, whatever else one thinks of her. (But then, I've just remembered, so was Gordon Brown ...)
The issue for negotiation is what the terms of movement of labour will be in the future. To make a unilateral guarantee for people currently resident in the UK is to concede nothing. The only real argument against it is that it would just be gratuitous virtue signalling.
Britain can approach this negotiation as a transactional negotiation or it can view it as a relational negotiation. So far it is showing every sign of doing the former at a time when the EU27 is still very much in relational mode. This looks doomed to disaster, especially as Britain is going to be part of the continent of Europe for the foreseeable future (at least, until the more zealous Europhobes have worked out how to detach Britain from the Eurasian tectonic plate), making a relational arrangement inevitable.
(Most of my experience in neogitations with EU countries has been governmental, while most of my experience in negotations with Americans has been in the private sector, so maybe that could explain the difference).
Scotland +6
London +7
North +7
Midlands/Wales +19
Rest of South +30
18-24 -10
25-49 -1
50-64 +21
65 and over +50
Remain -5
Leave +39
Male +21
Female +13
ABC1 +22
C2DE +10
As indicated by some previous surveys, Labour's vote is holding up better amongst women than men, and women are also a little more sceptical about Theresa May (though no less sceptical than men about Jeremy Corbyn.) Amongst male voters, Labour's support is half that of the Tories and only 7pts clear of Ukip.
The 2015 voter churn figures also indicate that May is carrying over the large bulk of support the party enjoyed under Cameron, and continuing to hold about one-fifth of the 2015 Ukip vote, as well as respectable shares of ex-Labour and Lib Dem backers. Lib Dem support is softest, but they are doing better than in 2015 apparently thanks to attracting around three times as many voters from Labour as have travelled the other way since the last election.
It is very hard to know whether such a gesture - which feels instinctively generous and British and somehow right - would buy us goodwill and therefore be worth doing or whether it would simply be taken with nothing given in return. A British government which left its citizens abroad in limbo would be rightly criticised - especially if their interests were being or perceived as being put second - and those expats will also have families here who will worry about what might happen.
Perhaps this might be one of those occasions when the government could use those with good links in the EU to sound out informally and discreetly on a deniable basis how such an offer would be received?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/andrea-leadsom-guarantee-rights-eu-citizens-uk-brexit-tory-leadership-theresa-may
And the government could say that it would guarantee the right to stay ie no deportations but that the terms on which people can stay (ie access to benefits / public services etc) are not guaranteed and will be dependant on reciprocity for British citizens. That provides one incentive.
Most long term EU residents can eliminate any uncertainty themselves just by following this path.
From a Brexiteer perspective, the fact that this act of economic selfishness also contributed to building the Brexit vote coalition is just the deliciously ironic icing on the cake, but it's no reason to abandon the competitive advantage we've gained in the intervening period.
Ken Clarke
A reciprocal deal would be an excellent thing, and was offered by May, and declined by the EU.
However, this vote may actually help May, as it gives her a prime opportunity to stand with the electorate against those whose valens must be signified.
What are her weaknesses? She's slow to make her mind up and her government has been caught flatfooted more than once already when speed was required. She has given flashes of a charmless intolerance of different approaches to life - "citizens of nowhere" and baiting Emily Thornberry about not taking her husband's name were entirely avoidable. It's far from clear that her plans for Brexit will survive first contact with reality. And time is not a quantity that she has in abundance, particularly in relation to Brexit where she is about to start negotiations with a group that are out to do her few favours and where she has made no serious attempt to gain any goodwill at all.
But until Britain has a functioning opposition other than the SNP, she will govern unchallenged.
That might not be likely, and as I said I'm relaxed about doing this - it is certainly the case that even before the vote I knew EU citizens, who have no wish to go anywhere, who were worried about the potential consequences, and it would be nice to alleviate that worry - but governance for the overall benefit of a nation of millions must occasionally involve cold, calculating action. Whether that is reasonable here, I do not know, but I think it would be unfair to paint anyone taking a more abstract and pragmatic viewpoint as being entirely heartless, even acknowledging that some will indeed be that heartless.
Thanks to all for the kind comments below; I was half the world away when OGH published it.
We've been winning the demographic war for talent within the EU, and seeking to maintain that advantage is not a concession but consolidation of the spoils of victory.
Given the circumstances, it was (IMHO) just as well there wasn't a full leadership campaign. It would inevitably have resulted in Brexit hostages to fortune.
It also seems to me that the fears of our EU residents probably say more about their knowledge both of their own national governments and of the EU's ways than about the UK's position. In which case, of course, the UK government is even more wise to wait upon the outcome of negotiations.
Good evening, everyone.
Who remembers the 2010 Cleggasm, Cameron triumphant after the 2015 election or "the near perfect chancellor" a dead cert for the premiership in 2020?
May could be here for a while. She could be gone by Christmas.
....and that ignores the morality. It's interesting to hear Tebbit leaving his crypt to remind those who have forgotten or weren't born what Tories look like when you strip off the new paint.
This line was a calculated, and brutal, rebuke to Davos man. It caused great offence in certain quarters; one grand media panjandrum went to see May to complain about it to her face. But May’s real aim was to show the voters that she loathed cheating bankers, Philip Green and other private jet users just as much as they do. From this position, the calculation went, voters would trust her to try to make globalisation and markets work for them rather than throwing the baby out with the bathwater and opting for full-blown populism and protectionism.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/theresa-mays-new-third-way/
But I sense there is something slippery about her and that 'maybe' she is not quite as clever as she thinks she is and that - coupled with her obvious lack of warmth - ultimately might be her undoing.
The date of his appearance before the French courts is two days before the deadline for nominations. The French people who I've spoken to (and who are not particularly political) seem convinced of his 'guilt' already and apparently the French media are having a field day at his expense.
If he doesn't make it onto the ballot (or pulls out after the deadline for nominations) it could make a mess of betting calculations. I'm tempted to put a small amount on Macron getting the job in the first round, although there might still be some value on a different Republican candidate being substituted at the last minute.
https://twitter.com/newdawn1997/status/836909502813331456
I hope Fillon toddles off. Added a shade of greenery for both Juppe and Bairon, so if either of them gets the nod I can lay nicely.
Miss JGP, you're welcome.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Nabavi, cheers for that Fillon information.
Perhaps if there was no history on this point your strategy would work.
But we've already gone to them and said "This is unreasonable. Let's just agree this minor point and take it off the table" and we're slapped down (even though that is the likely outcome).
If we go back now and say "ok we'll give you the point anyway" it will just be taken as weakness, not niceness.
Good thread header, nice to be able to read one without feeling I was being trolled! The puns worked too, a rare double
May's attempted slight of hand was rightly slapped down by Merkel, although other EU leaders may have been naive enough to fall for it.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/837018048326402048
The three million individuals are a pretty disparate bunch.
Find them in five bed houses in Ally Pally and they are earning large salaries and fully self sustaining. Trot along to nearby Edmonton or Wood Green and it will not be long before you encounter the part time worker who is receiving copious amounts of housing benefit, tax credits and child benefit in return for 16 hours a week serving coffee or driving an Uber.
Across the board guarantees are not the way forward.
Abolish the lot of 'em and shoot one in ten as a lesson.