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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton wher

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held

The following is based on a briefing by David Cowling who writes that the “incomparable House of Commons Library have produced the following summary of 2011 census data for Manchester Gorton constituency”

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    First :smiley:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Must have been one of the largest LD falls on the night!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    RobD said:

    Must have been one of the largest LD falls on the night!

    Where is Mark Senior?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    RobD said:

    Must have been one of the largest LD falls on the night!

    Not even in the Top 5:

    Liberal/SDP/Liberal Democrat
    Brent Central, 2015: - 35.8%
    Sheffield Central, 2015: -31.2%
    Dunfermline and West Fife, 2015: -31.1%
    Hereford and South Herefordshire, 2015: -30.5%
    Edinburgh South, 2015: -30.3%

    Until 2015, the greatest drop in Liberal vote share was 29.9% at Plymouth Devonport in 1992.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election_records
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Kaufman on his constituency:
    ‘We couldn’t win an election just with the votes of the poor and the deprived and the ethnic minorities. My constituency is a constituency which is predominantly composed of voters who are poor and deprived, with a considerable number of people from the ethnic minorities. I kept increasing my majority at every general election but it didn’t do my constituents any good because what they needed was a different government. The only way we could get a different government was by adding to the votes of the poor and the deprived and the ethnic minorities the votes of affluent people living in the south east of England and other parts of England.’
    Also on the perils of unilateralism (yes, House of Lords, I'm looking at you)
    ‘Do they really believe that if we gave up Trident, the eight other nuclear weapons powers would say, “Good old Britain! They have done the right thing. We must follow suit”? Pull the other one!’.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017


    Also on the perils of unilateralism (yes, House of Lords, I'm looking at you)

    ‘Do they really believe that if we gave up Trident, the eight other nuclear weapons powers would say, “Good old Britain! They have done the right thing. We must follow suit”? Pull the other one!’.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/

    Not just the HoL, seems to be a view shared by our more euro-enthusiast brothers and sisters here. Still, if Labour wants to support that view I am sure it will go down on their doorsteps as well as unilateral disarmament did.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    This could get tricky:

    American allies, including the British and the Dutch, had provided information describing meetings in European cities between Russian officials — and others close to Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin — and associates of President-elect Trump

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/01/us/politics/obama-trump-russia-election-hacking.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879


    Also on the perils of unilateralism (yes, House of Lords, I'm looking at you)

    ‘Do they really believe that if we gave up Trident, the eight other nuclear weapons powers would say, “Good old Britain! They have done the right thing. We must follow suit”? Pull the other one!’.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/

    Not just the HoL, seems to be a view shared by our more euro-enthusiast brothers and sisters here. Still, if Labour wants to support that view I am sure it will go down on their doorsteps as well as unilateral disarmament did.

    I think better of the British than you do, clearly. Unilateral disarmament involved giving up our ability to deter a military aggressor. Guaranteeing the rights of people who came to the UK in good faith under a regime that the UK had voluntarily signed up to does not.

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I predict

    Lab 52%
    LD 28%
    Con 7%
    UKIP 6%
    Grn 5%
    Oth 2%
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540


    Also on the perils of unilateralism (yes, House of Lords, I'm looking at you)

    ‘Do they really believe that if we gave up Trident, the eight other nuclear weapons powers would say, “Good old Britain! They have done the right thing. We must follow suit”? Pull the other one!’.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/

    Not just the HoL, seems to be a view shared by our more euro-enthusiast brothers and sisters here. Still, if Labour wants to support that view I am sure it will go down on their doorsteps as well as unilateral disarmament did.
    Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, said there was a growing consensus over the issue. “The prime minister is now increasingly isolated. Labour will continue to support this simple but effective amendment when it returns to the Commons, and urge MPs on all sides of the House to do so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/01/lords-defeat-government-over-rights-of-eu-citizens-in-uk-brexit-bill
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017

    This could get tricky:

    American allies, including the British and the Dutch, had provided information describing meetings in European cities between Russian officials — and others close to Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin — and associates of President-elect Trump

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/01/us/politics/obama-trump-russia-election-hacking.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    Yes. Although it depends a lot on how loosely the terms "close" and "allies" are being used. Its one thing to alledge that Trump has people close to his government talking policy with people close to Putin's government. On the other hand, Trump does business in Russia will have his negotiators talking with Russian officials there as a matter of course, and probably reasonably senior ones if they are discussing large capital investments.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    This could get tricky:

    American allies, including the British and the Dutch, had provided information describing meetings in European cities between Russian officials — and others close to Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin — and associates of President-elect Trump

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/01/us/politics/obama-trump-russia-election-hacking.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    Yes. Although it depends a lot on how loosely the terms "close" and "allies" are being used. Its one thing to alledge that Trump has people close to his government talking policy with people close to Putin's government. On the other hand, Trump does business in Russia will have his negotiators talking with Russian officials there as a matter of course, and probably reasonably senior ones if they are discussing large capital investments.

    It would be hard to argue that Jeff Sessions was or is a Trump business representative.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    This could get tricky:

    American allies, including the British and the Dutch, had provided information describing meetings in European cities between Russian officials — and others close to Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin — and associates of President-elect Trump

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/01/us/politics/obama-trump-russia-election-hacking.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    Yes. Although it depends a lot on how loosely the terms "close" and "allies" are being used. Its one thing to alledge that Trump has people close to his government talking policy with people close to Putin's government. On the other hand, Trump does business in Russia will have his negotiators talking with Russian officials there as a matter of course, and probably reasonably senior ones if they are discussing large capital investments.

    It would be hard to argue that Jeff Sessions was or is a Trump business representative.

    Reading further it does seem rather muddy - in response to a question on his work on the Trump campaign he said 'no'. However as a Senator on the Defence Committee he met the Russian Ambassador twice - once as a part of a group, once privately. I'm not sure the Democrats are going after the right guy.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    JohnLoony said:

    I predict

    Lab 52%
    LD 28%
    Con 7%
    UKIP 6%
    Grn 5%
    Oth 2%

    A bigger Lab-Con swing than Copeland :o !
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Changing the subject completely, I am currently in Singapore. This home-grown view about its education system - which puts it at the top of the international rankings - is well worth a read. It's not all gravy here and the kind of learning promoted does not necessarily lead to outcomes that a fully-developed country wants or needs:
    http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/lets-kill-the-drill-approach-in-schools
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Changing the subject completely, I am currently in Singapore. This home-grown view about its education system - which puts it at the top of the international rankings - is well worth a read. It's not all gravy here and the kind of learning promoted does not necessarily lead to outcomes that a fully-developed country wants or needs:
    http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/lets-kill-the-drill-approach-in-schools

    >Waves from Jakarta<

    Singapore education discourages creativity and thinking for yourself.....I wonder why [Innocent Face]
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....
    I meant the inevitable by election victory in Gorton, not the article 50 amendment made by the HoL.
    I think most people, when they look in to the issues, would support the position taken by the government ie that any guarantee must be reciprocated by the EU for British citizens overseas. In the meantime the government should act immediately to make a more straightforward and inexpensive route to permanent residency for long term EU residents here. This would give certainty to people and avoid people leaving due to the uncertainty of Brexit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.
    Labour are welcome to prioritise non-Britons over their fellow citizens if they think that's the right thing to do - but the Bishops aren't on their side - they voted 3:2 with the government...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    Manchester Gorton: - ‘Latest betting has LDs second favourite.’

    I doubt the Lib Dems can go from losing their deposit in GE2015, to overturning a 24K majority 2017, but to come in the top three would be quite an achievement for them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    nielh said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....
    I meant the inevitable by election victory in Gorton, not the article 50 amendment made by the HoL.
    I think most people, when they look in to the issues, would support the position taken by the government ie that any guarantee must be reciprocated by the EU for British citizens overseas. In the meantime the government should act immediately to make a more straightforward and inexpensive route to permanent residency for long term EU residents here. This would give certainty to people and avoid people leaving due to the uncertainty of Brexit.
    Yes - Gorton should be a comfortable Labour hold - but if its held on May 4th it will get buried by the other news that day - famous faces (or not) for Mayors and council election results...which may not go so well, what with the Lib Dem juggernaut (sic).....

    On EU residents it does sound as though the government could simplify the process and significantly increase handling capacity......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Changing the subject completely, I am currently in Singapore. This home-grown view about its education system - which puts it at the top of the international rankings - is well worth a read. It's not all gravy here and the kind of learning promoted does not necessarily lead to outcomes that a fully-developed country wants or needs:
    http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/lets-kill-the-drill-approach-in-schools

    Enjoy Singapore - probably my favourite city, containing all that's good about London, HK and Dubai in the same place. Bloody expensive beer though!

    Interesting article about the education system, IMO a balance is needed between rote leaning of facts and teaching students to be able to think for themselves.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    RobD said:

    Must have been one of the largest LD falls on the night!

    Where is Mark Senior?
    Ask your motel receptionist for help.

    However, I really don't think PB is the right place to conduct your illicit affair.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Must have been one of the largest LD falls on the night!

    Where is Mark Senior?
    Ask your motel receptionist for help.

    However, I really don't think PB is the right place to conduct your illicit affair.
    Last sighted discretely entering the Auchentennach Castle gay pleasure grounds. :smiley:
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Must have been one of the largest LD falls on the night!

    Where is Mark Senior?
    Ask your motel receptionist for help.

    However, I really don't think PB is the right place to conduct your illicit affair.
    Last sighted discretely entering the Auchentennach Castle gay pleasure grounds. :smiley:
    Yes, my staff saw you drooling over the estate wall at the festivities.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    I am currently in Singapore.

    There for Eddie Izzard?

    http://www.sistic.com.sg/events/ceddie0217

    If you have the chance the Singapore National Gallery is well worth checking out - the art is not bad, but the repurposing of two colonial era buildings masterful
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....
    The Tories don't have a majority in the Lords - they got a huge number of their own Peers out, but it wasn't enough.

    The Commons will overturn the amendment and send the bill back to the Lords, where it's likely that enough Peers will either accept the will of the elected, or understand that going into negotiations with one hand tied behind your back isn't a good look for the PM. If however the Lords vote for it again, then we end up with Parliamentary ping pong!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited March 2017

    I am currently in Singapore.

    There for Eddie Izzard?

    http://www.sistic.com.sg/events/ceddie0217

    If you have the chance the Singapore National Gallery is well worth checking out - the art is not bad, but the repurposing of two colonial era buildings masterful
    Yes, the gallery and museum are brilliant, and a stark reminder of how recent a lot of the 'history' is over there.

    Have to go to the Long Bar for a Sling, even though it's about £25, and the huge casino is fun, if only to observe the Chinese tourists there with stacks of $10,000 chips :open_mouth:
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124


    Also on the perils of unilateralism (yes, House of Lords, I'm looking at you)

    ‘Do they really believe that if we gave up Trident, the eight other nuclear weapons powers would say, “Good old Britain! They have done the right thing. We must follow suit”? Pull the other one!’.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/

    Not just the HoL, seems to be a view shared by our more euro-enthusiast brothers and sisters here. Still, if Labour wants to support that view I am sure it will go down on their doorsteps as well as unilateral disarmament did.

    I think better of the British than you do, clearly. Unilateral disarmament involved giving up our ability to deter a military aggressor. Guaranteeing the rights of people who came to the UK in good faith under a regime that the UK had voluntarily signed up to does not.

    And as a Brit living in Spain I have to honestly tell you that I'd feel a lot safer relying on the British government fighting my corner post-Brexit than relying on the goodwill of the Spanish government alone.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sandpit said:

    I am currently in Singapore.

    There for Eddie Izzard?

    http://www.sistic.com.sg/events/ceddie0217

    If you have the chance the Singapore National Gallery is well worth checking out - the art is not bad, but the repurposing of two colonial era buildings masterful
    Have to go to the Long Bar for a Sling, even though it's about £25
    The best bit about the Long Bar is littering......
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Sandpit said:

    I am currently in Singapore.

    There for Eddie Izzard?

    http://www.sistic.com.sg/events/ceddie0217

    If you have the chance the Singapore National Gallery is well worth checking out - the art is not bad, but the repurposing of two colonial era buildings masterful
    Have to go to the Long Bar for a Sling, even though it's about £25
    The best bit about the Long Bar is littering......
    All those bloody nuts cases!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    I am currently in Singapore.

    There for Eddie Izzard?

    http://www.sistic.com.sg/events/ceddie0217

    If you have the chance the Singapore National Gallery is well worth checking out - the art is not bad, but the repurposing of two colonial era buildings masterful
    Have to go to the Long Bar for a Sling, even though it's about £25
    The best bit about the Long Bar is littering......
    Yes, the only place on the whole island that you won't get arrested for dropping something on the floor!
  • JohnLoony said:

    I predict

    Lab 52%
    LD 28%
    Con 7%
    UKIP 6%
    Grn 5%
    Oth 2%

    This must be the Gold Standard against which other predictions should be tested.

    It would be interesting if this is the case because the LDs would be building up their position presumably without much data. Historic data will be useless in a constituency where electors move more regularly so the build up will be by leaflet bombing in the campaign itself.

    The LDs task will be to stop flaky voters going for the Greens instead of themselves so expect some very nasty anti-green stuff in the LD leaflets. In essence I think JL is very close to what will happen but I would think the LDs will struggle to break 25% and the free votes will go to the Greens.

    A hyper charismatic Green candidate would bugger it for the LDs.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Can the Conservatives make it a third by-election in a row where their vote share rises in government? I think, given UKIP's vote share at the last election, that they might, particularly if the Lib Dems try to make the by-election about Brexit.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Sandpit said:

    Changing the subject completely, I am currently in Singapore. This home-grown view about its education system - which puts it at the top of the international rankings - is well worth a read. It's not all gravy here and the kind of learning promoted does not necessarily lead to outcomes that a fully-developed country wants or needs:
    http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/lets-kill-the-drill-approach-in-schools

    Enjoy Singapore - probably my favourite city, containing all that's good about London, HK and Dubai in the same place. Bloody expensive beer though!

    Interesting article about the education system, IMO a balance is needed between rote leaning of facts and teaching students to be able to think for themselves.
    Bloody expensive air travel! Flying to London from here on SIA via Singapore is about 60% more expensive than flying directly to London from Manila on PAL, plus PAL give me a ludicrously generous luggage allowance even flying coach.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    I wonder if George Galloway will stand in Gorton?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    THey also threw the rights of EU citizens living in the UK into question - but the unelected House of Lords chooses to prioritise EU residents rights over Britons.....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Those pesky migrants, coming here and earning us money:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/837091005576974342
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Changing the subject completely, I am currently in Singapore. This home-grown view about its education system - which puts it at the top of the international rankings - is well worth a read. It's not all gravy here and the kind of learning promoted does not necessarily lead to outcomes that a fully-developed country wants or needs:
    http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/lets-kill-the-drill-approach-in-schools

    Enjoy Singapore - probably my favourite city, containing all that's good about London, HK and Dubai in the same place. Bloody expensive beer though!

    Interesting article about the education system, IMO a balance is needed between rote leaning of facts and teaching students to be able to think for themselves.
    Bloody expensive air travel! Flying to London from here on SIA via Singapore is about 60% more expensive than flying directly to London from Manila on PAL, plus PAL give me a ludicrously generous luggage allowance even flying coach.
    Ha, last time I went there Singapore were about 30% cheaper than Emirates on the DXB>SIN route.

    My rule of thumb is that the best price is usually with the destination's airline, because they're incentivised to bring inbound tourism.

    But not Air France, for reasons discussed the other day.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Those pesky migrants, coming here and earning us money:

    twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/837091005576974342

    Good thing no one is planning on kicking them out.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017

    Those pesky migrants, coming here and earning us money:

    ttps://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/837091005576974342

    What about the migrant non-workers, or don't we discuss those ? The migrant workers will continue to get visas just like they do from non-EU countries. I am an immigrant worker here, I make them money, they give me a visa, its painless and costs next to nothing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    I consider both to be heartless (and stupid). Britain is not going to deport Spanish citizens en masse, Spain is not going to deport British citizens en masse. Both Britain and the EU27 could confirm the rights of residency of current residents and neither should see this as a negotiating card, since neither can make a credible threat.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    Are you suggesting that the Spanish government would be justified in using British nationals as a bargaining chip?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    Changing the subject completely, I am currently in Singapore. This home-grown view about its education system - which puts it at the top of the international rankings - is well worth a read. It's not all gravy here and the kind of learning promoted does not necessarily lead to outcomes that a fully-developed country wants or needs:
    http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/lets-kill-the-drill-approach-in-schools

    A friend of mine has just returned from Singapore where he was attempting to recruit smart, well-educated IT workers for his (international but UK head-office based) IT firm.

    No joy. He said none of them could think for themselves.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Let's be frank: this constituency is far too diverse for a Lib Dem gain.

    Easy Labour hold.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    I consider both to be heartless (and stupid). Britain is not going to deport Spanish citizens en masse, Spain is not going to deport British citizens en masse. Both Britain and the EU27 could confirm the rights of residency of current residents and neither should see this as a negotiating card, since neither can make a credible threat.
    For f*cks sake, can we all now drop this deportation charade, the question isn't about deporting people, its about paying benefit to people, paying tax credits to people, and giving free healthcare to people. When we leave the EU, why are we going to give those benefits to EU people when we don't to non-EU people that arrived at the same time.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    I consider both to be heartless (and stupid). Britain is not going to deport Spanish citizens en masse, Spain is not going to deport British citizens en masse. Both Britain and the EU27 could confirm the rights of residency of current residents and neither should see this as a negotiating card, since neither can make a credible threat.
    For f*cks sake, can we all now drop this deportation charade, the question isn't about deporting people, its about paying benefit to people, paying tax credits to people, and giving free healthcare to people. When we leave the EU, why are we going to give those benefits to EU people when we don't to non-EU people that arrived at the same time.
    If it's not about deporting people, that can be said so now. But the government foolishly and heartlessly chooses to leave millions in limbo on this point.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2017
    What a splendid line this is:

    "Kaufman condemned Palestinian violence with the crisp impatience of a man keen to reach the comma"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    I consider both to be heartless (and stupid). Britain is not going to deport Spanish citizens en masse, Spain is not going to deport British citizens en masse. Both Britain and the EU27 could confirm the rights of residency of current residents and neither should see this as a negotiating card, since neither can make a credible threat.
    It won't be a question of deportation - it will be changing things like access to healthcare, benefits and housing that makes continued residence untenable. People will leave of their own volition.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    I consider both to be heartless (and stupid). Britain is not going to deport Spanish citizens en masse, Spain is not going to deport British citizens en masse. Both Britain and the EU27 could confirm the rights of residency of current residents and neither should see this as a negotiating card, since neither can make a credible threat.
    For f*cks sake, can we all now drop this deportation charade, the question isn't about deporting people, its about paying benefit to people, paying tax credits to people, and giving free healthcare to people. When we leave the EU, why are we going to give those benefits to EU people when we don't to non-EU people that arrived at the same time.
    If it's not about deporting people, that can be said so now. But the government foolishly and heartlessly chooses to leave millions in limbo on this point.
    So if the government said to EU nationals that they could stay, but after the BrExit date they would not be able to claim benefits, claim tax credits and would have to pay for using the NHS, that would settle your complaint would it ?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    Nonsense. The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.

    The prime mover in this situation is the UK, the responsibility lies with the Government to set out its principles for leaving.

    All this bluster presages the odious line we will be fed by the Government, the media and the PB toryherd every time the UK doesn't get its own way - it's all the fault of Johnny Foreigner for not rolling over and it proves we were right to quit the EU in favour of cuddling up to that nice Mr Trump.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Reuters
    Sweden set to reintroduce conscription: broadcaster SR https://t.co/8GpnplEuW7
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited March 2017

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    Nonsense. The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.

    The prime mover in this situation is the UK, the responsibility lies with the Government to set out its principles for leaving.

    All this bluster presages the odious line we will be fed by the Government, the media and the PB toryherd every time the UK doesn't get its own way - it's all the fault of Johnny Foreigner for not rolling over and it proves we were right to quit the EU in favour of cuddling up to that nice Mr Trump.
    But a unilateral guarantee isn't a negotiation, so the ban on negotiations doesn't really apply.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    All this bluster presages the odious line we will be fed by the Government, the media and the PB toryherd every time the UK doesn't get its own way - it's all the fault of Johnny Foreigner for not rolling over and it proves we were right to quit the EU in favour of cuddling up to that nice Mr Trump.

    Lets just see who the voters blame :smirk:
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    edited March 2017
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    Nonsense. The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.

    The prime mover in this situation is the UK, the responsibility lies with the Government to set out its principles for leaving.

    All this bluster presages the odious line we will be fed by the Government, the media and the PB toryherd every time the UK doesn't get its own way - it's all the fault of Johnny Foreigner for not rolling over and it proves we were right to quit the EU in favour of cuddling up to that nice Mr Trump.
    But a unilateral guarantee isn't a negotiation, so the ban on negotiations doesn't really apply.
    Try reading what I said. It's not a matter for Spain, or any other member state.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    Nonsense. The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.

    The prime mover in this situation is the UK, the responsibility lies with the Government to set out its principles for leaving.

    All this bluster presages the odious line we will be fed by the Government, the media and the PB toryherd every time the UK doesn't get its own way - it's all the fault of Johnny Foreigner for not rolling over and it proves we were right to quit the EU in favour of cuddling up to that nice Mr Trump.
    But a unilateral guarantee isn't a negotiation, so the ban on negotiations doesn't really apply.
    Try reading what I said. It's not a matter for Spain, or any other member state for that matter.
    That is your opinion, happily, and thank god, you are nowhere near our negotiation team.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    Nonsense. The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.

    The prime mover in this situation is the UK, the responsibility lies with the Government to set out its principles for leaving.

    All this bluster presages the odious line we will be fed by the Government, the media and the PB toryherd every time the UK doesn't get its own way - it's all the fault of Johnny Foreigner for not rolling over and it proves we were right to quit the EU in favour of cuddling up to that nice Mr Trump.
    But a unilateral guarantee isn't a negotiation, so the ban on negotiations doesn't really apply.
    Try reading what I said. It's not a matter for Spain, or any other member state for that matter.
    But the ban is on the EU (or any member state) negotiating with the UK. You don't need to negotiate in order to unilaterally guarantee something.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    Nonsense. The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.

    The prime mover in this situation is the UK, the responsibility lies with the Government to set out its principles for leaving.

    All this bluster presages the odious line we will be fed by the Government, the media and the PB toryherd every time the UK doesn't get its own way - it's all the fault of Johnny Foreigner for not rolling over and it proves we were right to quit the EU in favour of cuddling up to that nice Mr Trump.
    But a unilateral guarantee isn't a negotiation, so the ban on negotiations doesn't really apply.
    Try reading what I said. It's not a matter for Spain, or any other member state for that matter.
    That is your opinion, happily, and thank god, you are nowhere near our negotiation team.
    Sigh. Immigration is determined at EU level. An inconvenient (for you) fact.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    RobD said:

    But the ban is on the EU (or any member state) negotiating with the UK. You don't need to negotiate in order to unilaterally guarantee something.

    For some reason he thinks because we "started it" the UK should make all the guarantees and the rest of the EU should make none, its an interesting negotiation position.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited March 2017

    Kaufman on his constituency:

    ‘We couldn’t win an election just with the votes of the poor and the deprived and the ethnic minorities. My constituency is a constituency which is predominantly composed of voters who are poor and deprived, with a considerable number of people from the ethnic minorities. I kept increasing my majority at every general election but it didn’t do my constituents any good because what they needed was a different government. The only way we could get a different government was by adding to the votes of the poor and the deprived and the ethnic minorities the votes of affluent people living in the south east of England and other parts of England.’
    Also on the perils of unilateralism (yes, House of Lords, I'm looking at you)
    ‘Do they really believe that if we gave up Trident, the eight other nuclear weapons powers would say, “Good old Britain! They have done the right thing. We must follow suit”? Pull the other one!’.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/


    I just can't see the logic. As someone who has another home outside of the UK (in the EU) I would feel much more confident of my position if the UK had unilaterally given an undertaking to those foreigners living in this country. Wouldn't you?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Changing the subject completely, I am currently in Singapore. This home-grown view about its education system - which puts it at the top of the international rankings - is well worth a read. It's not all gravy here and the kind of learning promoted does not necessarily lead to outcomes that a fully-developed country wants or needs:
    http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/lets-kill-the-drill-approach-in-schools

    Yes, I think in the past we also have seen the opposite proposition: that the United States is perennially in mid-PISA table yet has the most dynamic, entrepreneurial economy in the world. I'm not sure I'd go all the way with the author. How can we measure the long term success of primary school English lessons, for instance, besides platitudes about love of literature? Library membership? Newspaper circulation? Number of SK Tremaynes read?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    RobD said:

    But the ban is on the EU (or any member state) negotiating with the UK. You don't need to negotiate in order to unilaterally guarantee something.

    For some reason he thinks because we "started it" the UK should make all the guarantees and the rest of the EU should make none, its an interesting negotiation position.
    They won't negotiate until A50 is triggered. However much you fume about it, you can't change their position.

    Cnut.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    But the ban is on the EU (or any member state) negotiating with the UK. You don't need to negotiate in order to unilaterally guarantee something.

    For some reason he thinks because we "started it" the UK should make all the guarantees and the rest of the EU should make none, its an interesting negotiation position.
    They won't negotiate until A50 is triggered. However much you fume about it, you can't change their position.

    Cnut.
    What part of a unilateral guarantee do you have to negotiate? And really, name calling?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Don't be obtuse. I say this, he says that is a negotiation.

    No name calling, unless you're dyslexic.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    I just can't see the logic. As someone who has another home outside of the UK I would feel much more confident of my position if the UK had unilaterally given an undertaking to those foreigners living in this country. Wouldn't you?

    Because when the French government says, that yes you can stay but you need to pay for any use of the health system, and can no longer claim and benefits or tax credits (unlikely to affect you personally I am sure), the UK government will be unable to say that the French government should offer you those benefits, and in exchange we will offer the same benefits to French citizens staying in the UK.

  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    I just can't see the logic. As someone who has another home outside of the UK I would feel much more confident of my position if the UK had unilaterally given an undertaking to those foreigners living in this country. Wouldn't you?

    Because when the French government says, that yes you can stay but you need to pay for any use of the health system, and can no longer claim and benefits or tax credits (unlikely to affect you personally I am sure), the UK government will be unable to say that the French government should offer you those benefits, and in exchange we will offer the same benefits to French citizens staying in the UK.


    I didn't say that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Don't be obtuse. I say this, he says that is a negotiation.

    No name calling, unless you're dyslexic.

    I'm not being obtuse. This is what you said

    The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.

    I'll ask again, what aspect of a unilateral guarantee requires a negotiation?
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    I just can't see the logic. As someone who has another home outside of the UK I would feel much more confident of my position if the UK had unilaterally given an undertaking to those foreigners living in this country. Wouldn't you?

    Because when the French government says, that yes you can stay but you need to pay for any use of the health system, and can no longer claim and benefits or tax credits (unlikely to affect you personally I am sure), the UK government will be unable to say that the French government should offer you those benefits, and in exchange we will offer the same benefits to French citizens staying in the UK.


    I didn't say that.
    No Roger did. But it applies to your case as well, if we guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK, we have nothing to offer in exchange if EU member states decide they want to withdraw those rights/benefits from out citizens in their country. The rights in question are more than the right of where you can live, they are the rights of what you can do and have access to while you live there.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @AlsoIndigo there's no need to commit on benefits etc, though it would be wise to say that Britain is not proposing to treat EU27 citizens worse now or in the future than citizens of other countries outside the EU.

    @CarlottaVance plenty of EU27 citizens primarily want residency. They have jobs, they have housing. They don't want to be at risk of being bundled onto a plane with £12 in their pocket and separated from their spouse of 27 years.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    My problem with this is this. That the British government is refusing to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK is being described as heartless. Yet, the Spanish et al who are not guaranteeing the rights of Brits in their countries are not heartless and it's the Leave voters who are to blame.

    You can't have it both ways.
    I consider both to be heartless (and stupid). Britain is not going to deport Spanish citizens en masse, Spain is not going to deport British citizens en masse. Both Britain and the EU27 could confirm the rights of residency of current residents and neither should see this as a negotiating card, since neither can make a credible threat.
    For f*cks sake, can we all now drop this deportation charade, the question isn't about deporting people, its about paying benefit to people, paying tax credits to people, and giving free healthcare to people. When we leave the EU, why are we going to give those benefits to EU people when we don't to non-EU people that arrived at the same time.
    Do you really think people won't be deported?
    I'd assumed that at least some EU citizens will be - certainly those who haven't got permanent residency and don't meet an income threshold... I might be totally wrong on this though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    RobD said:

    Don't be obtuse. I say this, he says that is a negotiation.

    No name calling, unless you're dyslexic.

    I'm not being obtuse. This is what you said

    The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.

    I'll ask again, what aspect of a unilateral guarantee requires a negotiation?
    Who would have the authority to give that unilateral guarantee? There are 27 countries involved.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    Don't be obtuse. I say this, he says that is a negotiation.

    No name calling, unless you're dyslexic.

    I'm not being obtuse. This is what you said

    The lack of any guarantee to UK citizens by the EU (for this issue is to be negotiated at that level and not by any member state) is simply because those negotiations cannot start until after A50 is triggered. The EU has rightly taken that stance since 24/6/16.

    I'll ask again, what aspect of a unilateral guarantee requires a negotiation?
    Who would have the authority to give that unilateral guarantee? There are 27 countries involved.
    According to Bromptonaut it's decided at the EU level.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017

    @AlsoIndigo there's no need to commit on benefits etc, though it would be wise to say that Britain is not proposing to treat EU27 citizens worse now or in the future than citizens of other countries outside the EU.

    I wouldnt have a problem with that, so long as benefits in this context includes things like WFTC/Universal Credit.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Totally O/T, but as this is Thursday and there’ll be an election thread tonight, am I right in thinking that Northern Ireland doesn’t start counting until tomorrow morning?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    RobD said:

    But the ban is on the EU (or any member state) negotiating with the UK. You don't need to negotiate in order to unilaterally guarantee something.

    For some reason he thinks because we "started it" the UK should make all the guarantees and the rest of the EU should make none, its an interesting negotiation position.
    They won't negotiate until A50 is triggered. However much you fume about it, you can't change their position.

    Cnut.
    I wish Lord Tebbit was posting here.

    'Get on yer bike!
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    Do you really think people won't be deported?
    I'd assumed that at least some EU citizens will be - certainly those who haven't got permanent residency and don't meet an income threshold... I might be totally wrong on this though.

    No. I dont. I think it would be too controversial. It would be much more fair and equitable to put EU citizens on the same basis as non-EU citizens with Indefinite Leave to Remain, specifically they can stay, work, pay taxes, but not "be a burden on the state", and can be deported if they commit a criminal act. Then, after five year with a clean record they can apply for citizenship if they are so inclined.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    Sigh. Immigration is determined at EU level. An inconvenient (for you) fact.

    Bromptonaut, one of the reasons you get grief on here is your patronising manner (and the name calling doesn't help either, especially when you then roll that in by using dyslexia as a term of abuse).

    It also doesn't help that you're wrong on this point. Immigration is officially an EU matter, but the EU has chosen to lump it in with the A50 negotiations which are run by heads of government (admittedly Junker has tried to launch a power grab on that in his usual - ahem - tired and emotional way, but Merkel is the one who in practice made this call).

    The key question to my mind is what good this posturing is doing to anybody. It's merely reminding EU citizens that their status is not guaranteed while simultaneously stiffening the resolve of a government that has been very doveish on this issue not to back down. It's just about the worst imaginable way of doing things.

    Why couldn't they have made their stand on something economically important but emotionally neutral like the question of customs?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Not that I buy it, but just heard on the Today papers review that, as predicted, the Sun have taken the Lords to task for their contemptuous vote last night.

    Anyone who thinks the press are going to be on the side of foreigners in this foolish debate should study which papers are read on the Costas....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    But the ban is on the EU (or any member state) negotiating with the UK. You don't need to negotiate in order to unilaterally guarantee something.

    For some reason he thinks because we "started it" the UK should make all the guarantees and the rest of the EU should make none, its an interesting negotiation position.
    They won't negotiate until A50 is triggered. However much you fume about it, you can't change their position.

    Cnut.
    I wish Lord Tebbit was posting here.

    'Get on yer bike!
    A far more measured response than calling someone a cunt at 7:30 in the morning. :smiley:
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited March 2017
    ydoethur said:

    Sigh. Immigration is determined at EU level. An inconvenient (for you) fact.

    Bromptonaut, one of the reasons you get grief on here is your patronising manner (and the name calling doesn't help either, especially when you then roll that in by using dyslexia as a term of abuse).

    It also doesn't help that you're wrong on this point. Immigration is officially an EU matter, but the EU has chosen to lump it in with the A50 negotiations which are run by heads of government (admittedly Junker has tried to launch a power grab on that in his usual - ahem - tired and emotional way, but Merkel is the one who in practice made this call).

    The key question to my mind is what good this posturing is doing to anybody. It's merely reminding EU citizens that their status is not guaranteed while simultaneously stiffening the resolve of a government that has been very doveish on this issue not to back down. It's just about the worst imaginable way of doing things.

    Why couldn't they have made their stand on something economically important but emotionally neutral like the question of customs?
    Very good point. One answer to the final question, of course, is because there is little liberal virtue to be obviously signalled by seizing on emotionally neutral issues.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited March 2017
    ydoethur said:

    Sigh. Immigration is determined at EU level. An inconvenient (for you) fact.

    Bromptonaut, one of the reasons you get grief on here is your patronising manner (and the name calling doesn't help either, especially when you then roll that in by using dyslexia as a term of abuse).

    It also doesn't help that you're wrong on this point. Immigration is officially an EU matter, but the EU has chosen to lump it in with the A50 negotiations which are run by heads of government (admittedly Junker has tried to launch a power grab on that in his usual - ahem - tired and emotional way, but Merkel is the one who in practice made this call).

    The key question to my mind is what good this posturing is doing to anybody. It's merely reminding EU citizens that their status is not guaranteed while simultaneously stiffening the resolve of a government that has been very doveish on this issue not to back down. It's just about the worst imaginable way of doing things.

    Why couldn't they have made their stand on something economically important but emotionally neutral like the question of customs?
    It is the British government that has tried to introduce this as a Trojan horse to start prenegotiations.

    Both Britain and the EU have behaved badly on this but the idea that the British government has been doveish on this is very wide of the mark.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Interesting how it's the most ardent pb Remainers who are cheering the Lords decision most loudly.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    But the ban is on the EU (or any member state) negotiating with the UK. You don't need to negotiate in order to unilaterally guarantee something.

    For some reason he thinks because we "started it" the UK should make all the guarantees and the rest of the EU should make none, its an interesting negotiation position.
    They won't negotiate until A50 is triggered. However much you fume about it, you can't change their position.

    Cnut.
    I wish Lord Tebbit was posting here.

    'Get on yer bike!
    A far more measured response than calling someone a cunt at 7:30 in the morning. :smiley:
    And quite witty, I smugly thought, given his username!

    One of Shaw's....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited March 2017

    Interesting how it's the most ardent pb Remainers who are cheering the Lords decision most loudly.

    Indeed - and reliant on calling people names.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Very good point. One answer to the final question, of course, is because there is little liberal virtue to be obviously signalled by seizing on emotional neutral issues.

    Because it had nothing whatsoever to do with reviewing the legislation, even everything to do with trying to embarrass the government because they are supporting a decision by the public that some abhore. If you look closely you can see a rattle thrown from a pram somewhere in the Lord's making its way through Central Lobby.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    Are you suggesting that the Spanish government would be justified in using British nationals as a bargaining chip?
    That's what it comes down to for many Remainers: EU citizens living here are innocent victims, whilst Brits living abroad deserve the punishment.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    rkrkrk said:

    Do you really think people won't be deported?
    I'd assumed that at least some EU citizens will be - certainly those who haven't got permanent residency and don't meet an income threshold... I might be totally wrong on this though.

    No. I dont. I think it would be too controversial. It would be much more fair and equitable to put EU citizens on the same basis as non-EU citizens with Indefinite Leave to Remain, specifically they can stay, work, pay taxes, but not "be a burden on the state", and can be deported if they commit a criminal act. Then, after five year with a clean record they can apply for citizenship if they are so inclined.

    rkrkrk said:

    Do you really think people won't be deported?
    I'd assumed that at least some EU citizens will be - certainly those who haven't got permanent residency and don't meet an income threshold... I might be totally wrong on this though.

    No. I dont. I think it would be too controversial. It would be much more fair and equitable to put EU citizens on the same basis as non-EU citizens with Indefinite Leave to Remain, specifically they can stay, work, pay taxes, but not "be a burden on the state", and can be deported if they commit a criminal act. Then, after five year with a clean record they can apply for citizenship if they are so inclined.
    Actually ILR gives you full access to the benefits system. The only real differences between. ILR and being a UK citizen are:

    1). You can't vote or have a passport
    2). If you leave the UK for more than 2 years, you lose your residency
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Interesting how it's the most ardent pb Remainers who are cheering the Lords decision most loudly.

    Both @Roger and I have a direct personal interest in how the EU27 approaches this problem. Amazing how those posters (to be clear, I don't include you among those) who are very free with highly personal attacks have neglected to note that detail.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    Do you really think people won't be deported?
    I'd assumed that at least some EU citizens will be - certainly those who haven't got permanent residency and don't meet an income threshold... I might be totally wrong on this though.

    No. I dont. I think it would be too controversial. It would be much more fair and equitable to put EU citizens on the same basis as non-EU citizens with Indefinite Leave to Remain, specifically they can stay, work, pay taxes, but not "be a burden on the state", and can be deported if they commit a criminal act. Then, after five year with a clean record they can apply for citizenship if they are so inclined.
    You mean the ones already in the UK I presume.
    Not EU citizens who haven't come yet?

    Don't people with indefinite leave to remain have the ability to use NHS free of charge, receive tax credits etc?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Mortimer said:

    Interesting how it's the most ardent pb Remainers who are cheering the Lords decision most loudly.

    Indeed - and reliant on calling people names.
    LOL. Perhaps you should take the plank out of your own eye?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited March 2017
    Roger said:


    I just can't see the logic. As someone who has another home outside of the UK (in the EU) I would feel much more confident of my position if the UK had unilaterally given an undertaking to those foreigners living in this country. Wouldn't you?

    Actually I think it makes the government position trickier than if it had not been bought up at all.
    If the government overturns the HoL it looks heartless and that brutal negotiating stance could backfire. "So Mrs May, I think the first item on the agenda should be do you wish to treat EU citizens like Mexicans in Trump's America"
    If the Government doesn't - well there are 27 other countries, primarily Spain that have a superior hand before we begin.

    A difficult position for May indeed.
    I'm content to let the Lords & Commons have democracy run their process, whatever the outcome. After all that is what 'taking back control' is all about. The central point of Art 50 has been ceeded, as is correct.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    rkrkrk said:

    Do you really think people won't be deported?
    I'd assumed that at least some EU citizens will be - certainly those who haven't got permanent residency and don't meet an income threshold... I might be totally wrong on this though.

    No. I dont. I think it would be too controversial. It would be much more fair and equitable to put EU citizens on the same basis as non-EU citizens with Indefinite Leave to Remain, specifically they can stay, work, pay taxes, but not "be a burden on the state", and can be deported if they commit a criminal act. Then, after five year with a clean record they can apply for citizenship if they are so inclined.

    rkrkrk said:

    Do you really think people won't be deported?
    I'd assumed that at least some EU citizens will be - certainly those who haven't got permanent residency and don't meet an income threshold... I might be totally wrong on this though.

    No. I dont. I think it would be too controversial. It would be much more fair and equitable to put EU citizens on the same basis as non-EU citizens with Indefinite Leave to Remain, specifically they can stay, work, pay taxes, but not "be a burden on the state", and can be deported if they commit a criminal act. Then, after five year with a clean record they can apply for citizenship if they are so inclined.
    Actually ILR gives you full access to the benefits system. The only real differences between. ILR and being a UK citizen are:

    1). You can't vote or have a passport
    2). If you leave the UK for more than 2 years, you lose your residency
    and you can be thrown out if you are a crook.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,191


    Also on the perils of unilateralism (yes, House of Lords, I'm looking at you)

    ‘Do they really believe that if we gave up Trident, the eight other nuclear weapons powers would say, “Good old Britain! They have done the right thing. We must follow suit”? Pull the other one!’.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/

    Not just the HoL, seems to be a view shared by our more euro-enthusiast brothers and sisters here. Still, if Labour wants to support that view I am sure it will go down on their doorsteps as well as unilateral disarmament did.

    I think better of the British than you do, clearly. Unilateral disarmament involved giving up our ability to deter a military aggressor. Guaranteeing the rights of people who came to the UK in good faith under a regime that the UK had voluntarily signed up to does not.

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.
    Labour are welcome to prioritise non-Britons over their fellow citizens if they think that's the right thing to do - but the Bishops aren't on their side - they voted 3:2 with the government...
    How is this prioritising? It's treating equally, and fairly. I realise fairness has always been a concept Tories struggle with, Carlotta.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    ydoethur said:

    Sigh. Immigration is determined at EU level. An inconvenient (for you) fact.

    Bromptonaut, one of the reasons you get grief on here is your patronising manner (and the name calling doesn't help either, especially when you then roll that in by using dyslexia as a term of abuse).

    It also doesn't help that you're wrong on this point. Immigration is officially an EU matter, but the EU has chosen to lump it in with the A50 negotiations which are run by heads of government (admittedly Junker has tried to launch a power grab on that in his usual - ahem - tired and emotional way, but Merkel is the one who in practice made this call).

    The key question to my mind is what good this posturing is doing to anybody. It's merely reminding EU citizens that their status is not guaranteed while simultaneously stiffening the resolve of a government that has been very doveish on this issue not to back down. It's just about the worst imaginable way of doing things.

    Why couldn't they have made their stand on something economically important but emotionally neutral like the question of customs?
    It is the British government that has tried to introduce this as a Trojan horse to start prenegotiations.

    Both Britain and the EU have behaved badly on this but the idea that the British government has been doveish on this is very wide of the mark.
    Well, I was speaking relatively. They have indicated a willingness to offer a guarantee, but the one sure way to get them to withdraw it is to try and browbeat them into doing it without anything in return.

    Your point about prenegotiations is true, but if this process has shown one thing it is that A50 is completely unfit for purpose (largely because of course its creators never dreamed anyone would want to leave their perfect EU so in practice it would never be used). Two years is an impossibly short time to agree a deal for exit. It needs to be deal first, then exit, in everyone's interests. It's too late to alter it for us of course but that's one thing the EU will have to change going forward especially with other countries still at risk of leaving.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Will undoubtedly be celebrated as a major victory for labour.

    a turning point after the disappointment of copeland.


    I wonder why the Tories let it through? Cock up? (most likely) - or a trap for Labour in the Hoc?

    Good luck with that 'turning point' - I'm not sure 'Labour prioritises foreigners over Brits' is the strongest platform to mount a relaunch from....

    Using people who have lived, worked and paid taxes here - often for years - as a means to attack Labour is clearly what the Tories are seeking to do, I agree.

    Using this gesture politics whilst disregarding the rights of British citizens in Europe is shameful in the extreme.
    By voting Leave, the British people (who also elect the Government you are expecting to protect you) decided to throw the rights of all British citizens living in Europe into question. Don't blame the Spanish Government
    THey also threw the rights of EU citizens living in the UK into question - but the unelected House of Lords chooses to prioritise EU residents rights over Britons.....
    Last time I checked, the House of Lords didn't have jurisdiction over Spain
This discussion has been closed.