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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what next for LAB/Corbyn/UKIP plus a look at Northern Ireland

On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics.

Read the full story here

Mortimer

First - like Mrs May!

OldKingCole

Second, like Labour in Gorton. Worked there for a bit, a long, long time ago

Morris_Dancer

Going to listen to it in bits and pieces (can't write and listen to discussion at the same time) but there's an early nails-on-blackboard moment.

"Semi-historic"?!

I do like Mr. Pedley, but that's a step away from "quite unique".

TheScreamingEagles

What an utter knob John McDonnell is.

He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.

So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.

If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.

glw

TheScreamingEagles said:

What an utter knob John McDonnell is.

He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.

So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.

If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.

Safe in their hands? No.

Sean_F

The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, sounds like a chap who can be trusted to be Shadow Chancellor.

Ahem.

Pulpstar

Sean_F said:

The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.

I'm on a whole bunch of tips from Lucian Fletcher. Jemma Dolan @ 15-8 (Sinn Fein, advised #1 on the ballot in F&ST) looks to be the pick of the bunch (Into 4-9 now)

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

What an utter knob John McDonnell is.

He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.

So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.

If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.

Surely as a true socialist he sees it not as identity theft but redistribution?

TheScreamingEagles

Spare a thought for Rick Astley.

I hear Rick Astley really struggles with Lent.

Lucian_Fletcher

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.

I'm on a whole bunch of tips from Lucian Fletcher. Jemma Dolan @ 15-8 (Sinn Fein, advised #1 on the ballot in F&ST) looks to be the pick of the bunch (Into 4-9 now)

Careful with that. It's not quite the shoo-in you suggest. Sinn Fein are MASTERS of ballot balancing. There are 6 DEAs in F&ST. Each of their 3 candidates is advised as 1, 2, 3 in 2 od the DEAs. Jemma is advised 1 in Erne North and Enniskillen. Michelle Gildernew advised 1 in Dungannon and the Clogher Valley (and as the former MP IS the shoo-in for SF). Sean Lynch is advised number 1 in Erne West and Erne East.

Lucian_Fletcher

Sean_F said:

The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.

Well that's what the betting says, certainly. But I've been hearing the SDLP talking up their chances in a couple of very unlikely spots. Which could indicate a movement few have seen (or I'm hearing bullshine).

Lucian_Fletcher

TheScreamingEagles said:

Spare a thought for Rick Astley.

I hear Rick Astley really struggles with Lent.

He's also a very firm Unionist.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/837233830075432960
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/837234109869133824

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What an utter knob John McDonnell is.

He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.

So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.

If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.

Surely as a true socialist he sees it not as identity theft but redistribution?

POTD

AlsoIndigo

TheScreamingEagles said:

What an utter knob John McDonnell is.

He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.

So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.

If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.

The McDonnell tendency keep coming up with this tax return bollox, they never quite seem to appreciate that the bit people are avoiding paying tax on, if any, don't actually appear on their tax return! There is no section labelled "Secret Cayman Islands Account don't tax me on this please".

PeterMannion

TheScreamingEagles said:

Spare a thought for Rick Astley.

I hear Rick Astley really struggles with Lent.

It's the way you tell them...

Sean_F

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.

Well that's what the betting says, certainly. But I've been hearing the SDLP talking up their chances in a couple of very unlikely spots. Which could indicate a movement few have seen (or I'm hearing bullshine).

I've been hearing the SDLP talk up their chances in every election for 15 years.

TheScreamingEagles

Re FPT

I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.

My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104

scotslass

The importance of the Northern Ireland election is the stalemate and return to direct rule that it is likely to emerge. In other words the May government will be facing BREXIT, a Scottish referendum and direct rule in NI at the same time.

One of the arts of politics is to avoid such a conjunction of events. Testimony to a limited inflexible and inexperienced Prime Minister.

Pulpstar

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.

I'm on a whole bunch of tips from Lucian Fletcher. Jemma Dolan @ 15-8 (Sinn Fein, advised #1 on the ballot in F&ST) looks to be the pick of the bunch (Into 4-9 now)

Careful with that. It's not quite the shoo-in you suggest. Sinn Fein are MASTERS of ballot balancing. There are 6 DEAs in F&ST. Each of their 3 candidates is advised as 1, 2, 3 in 2 od the DEAs. Jemma is advised 1 in Erne North and Enniskillen. Michelle Gildernew advised 1 in Dungannon and the Clogher Valley (and as the former MP IS the shoo-in for SF). Sean Lynch is advised number 1 in Erne West and Erne East.

Just one question - you did consider the seat reduction from 6 to generally 5 when assessing the odds :> ?

TheScreamingEagles

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

AlsoIndigo

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re FPT

I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.

My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104

Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?

Pulpstar

AlsoIndigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re FPT

I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.

My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104

Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?

That was Lutfur Rahman, this is Luthfur Rahman.

CarlottaVance

scotslass said:

The importance of the Northern Ireland election is the stalemate and return to direct rule that it is likely to emerge. In other words the May government will be facing BREXIT, a Scottish referendum and direct rule in NI at the same time.

Delay the Scottish Referendum until we've left the EU, obvs.

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

Good, if there is one section of public sector workers that have been badly treated - it ain't the Doctors, it ain't the teachers, it is the prison officers.
Severely under appreciated by the government and also underpaid too by the sounds of things.

isam

"When we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets us off on a two-year negotiation to leave the EU, part of that renegotiations is what happens to retired people from Britain living on the Costa del Sol and what happens to people from Warsaw living in London

Let me make this clear, during our divorce negotiations, even if the EU was to behave badly and say [British] people living in Spain were to be threatened with not being there, we would maintain the line that we believe in the rule of law, we believe in British justice and we believe that anyone who has come to Britain legally has the right to remain."

The nice party. Please distinguish between ukip & the loony nasty leavers @AlastairMeeks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30111694

Carolus_Rex

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?

Or kicking Gove out of education and turning a friend into a dangerous enemy?

Bojabob

Lucian_Fletcher said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Spare a thought for Rick Astley.

I hear Rick Astley really struggles with Lent.

He's also a very firm Unionist.

They say he's also obsessive about former girlfriends.

AlsoIndigo

Pulpstar said:

AlsoIndigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re FPT

I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.

My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104

Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?

That was Lutfur Rahman, this is Luthfur Rahman.

Aha, thanks Still might be a little awkward at the selection hearing if people don't look closely

TheScreamingEagles

AlsoIndigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re FPT

I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.

My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104

Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?

They all look the same to you.

You're thinking of Lutfur Rahman

This is Luthfur Rahman.

BudG

LR say they don't have a plan B should Fillon withdraw from the Presidential race.

Maybe this should be their plan B!!

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/a-goat-would-beat-le-pen-in-frances-presidential-election-political-analyst-says.html

[Deleted User]

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

Good, if there is one section of public sector workers that have been badly treated - it ain't the Doctors, it ain't the teachers, it is the prison officers.
Severely under appreciated by the government and also underpaid too by the sounds of things.

I'd say in terms of pay and conditions private soldiers in the army have it alot worse. Average prison officer pay is a smidgeon over 21k. Privates a smidgeon under 20k. But the terms and conditions in the army are much more demanding.

AlsoIndigo

Carolus_Rex said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?

Or kicking Gove out of education and turning a friend into a dangerous enemy?

Well quite, and giving that housetrained airhead Nicky Morgan ideas beyond her abilities at the same time.

AlsoIndigo

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlsoIndigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re FPT

I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.

My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104

Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?

They all look the same to you.

You're thinking of Lutfur Rahman

This is Luthfur Rahman.

They all look the same to you.

Seems a little cheap considering my current lifestyle

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, they should bloody well get a plan B then.

Pulpstar

Patrick said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

Good, if there is one section of public sector workers that have been badly treated - it ain't the Doctors, it ain't the teachers, it is the prison officers.
Severely under appreciated by the government and also underpaid too by the sounds of things.

I'd say in terms of pay and conditions private soldiers in the army have it alot worse. Average prison officer pay is a smidgeon over 21k. Privates a smidgeon under 20k. But the terms and conditions in the army are much more demanding.

If you're a private in the army then there is the potential for adventure, advancement as well as subsidised housing. Its more your life than just a job !
The army has its own issues of course - the number of chiefs should probably be vastly cut... but I don't think it makes the current prison officer situation better.
I'm not sure how the pensions compare, but my colleague will receive an excellent pension compared to his time and wages served during from his navy stint. Is it so good for prison officers ?

The_Apocalypse

FPT

@kle4
I didn't say that all those who disagreed with me were right-wing. You've just mentioned this place is right-leaning: well that is what it was a comment on.

Secondly, I didn't say you were right-wing specifically either.

Thirdly, I didn't typify the alternative view as a right-wing together either. It was in response to someone who wasn't engaging with my argument at all by providing an alternative view, but dismissed my argument entirely. The dismissive attitude, and the idea that my alternative view should not be put forward was what caused the 'right-wing get together comment.' I thought that was fairly obvious, given that in my exchanges with you I never actually characterised your disagreement with me as 'right-wing'. Nor did I ever explicitly define terms of this debate in ideological terms. Your reply to me is filled with accusations of things I never actually said.

Nor did I said that my argument wasn't my opinion. The difference is, is that I did not dismiss all other arguments, but I tried to make my case. (And again I'm not accusing YOU of dismissing my opinion).

As for your last question: because politicians do stupid things. It was a dumb thing for May to do, but it was hardly the crime of the century. If I disliked a politician over this one thing, then I'd probably hate most of them, given they have all made silly comments over the years. Indeed I didn't actually intend to get into a heated argument over this. A similar observation in regard to May's comment was made previously, and funnily enough there wasn't all that much debate about it. Yet there is now....

Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.

Roger

TheScreamingEagles said:

What an utter knob John McDonnell is.

He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.

So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.

If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.

LOL!!!

AlsoIndigo

The_Apocalypse said:

Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.

Welcome to PB, where people argue with that they wish you had said and berate you for what they think you believe Oh, and try and make you guilty by association for who your house's previous tenant's auntie's dog's former owner voted for

isam

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/837225737400815616

The_Apocalypse

AlsoIndigo said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.

Welcome to PB, where people argue with that they wish you had said and berate you for what they think you believe

I also noticed that in that thread I wasn't the only person making the argument which caused all the fuss. I did noticed though that I was only person who some took issue with for making the argument.

Lucian_Fletcher

scotslass said:

The importance of the Northern Ireland election is the stalemate and return to direct rule that it is likely to emerge. In other words the May government will be facing BREXIT, a Scottish referendum and direct rule in NI at the same time.

One of the arts of politics is to avoid such a conjunction of events. Testimony to a limited inflexible and inexperienced Prime Minister.

I'd be happy to blame Mrs May for a lot. But Arlene Foster and Gerry Adams playing silly buggers isn't really a fair one to pin on her.

Lucian_Fletcher

Pulpstar said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.

I'm on a whole bunch of tips from Lucian Fletcher. Jemma Dolan @ 15-8 (Sinn Fein, advised #1 on the ballot in F&ST) looks to be the pick of the bunch (Into 4-9 now)

Careful with that. It's not quite the shoo-in you suggest. Sinn Fein are MASTERS of ballot balancing. There are 6 DEAs in F&ST. Each of their 3 candidates is advised as 1, 2, 3 in 2 od the DEAs. Jemma is advised 1 in Erne North and Enniskillen. Michelle Gildernew advised 1 in Dungannon and the Clogher Valley (and as the former MP IS the shoo-in for SF). Sean Lynch is advised number 1 in Erne West and Erne East.

Just one question - you did consider the seat reduction from 6 to generally 5 when assessing the odds :> ?

Of course. Which is why I would avoid most of the markets like the plague. In many seats, Paddy Power had 6 at long odds on. I would have loved the other side of lots of those.

The_Apocalypse

Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.

TheScreamingEagles

AlsoIndigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlsoIndigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re FPT

I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.

My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104

Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?

They all look the same to you.

You're thinking of Lutfur Rahman

This is Luthfur Rahman.

They all look the same to you.

Seems a little cheap considering my current lifestyle

Just yanking your chain.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

AlsoIndigo said:

Carolus_Rex said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?

Or kicking Gove out of education and turning a friend into a dangerous enemy?

Well quite, and giving that housetrained airhead Nicky Morgan ideas beyond her abilities at the same time.

Nicky Morgan is Osborne's b1tch.
Anything she says should be seen in that context.

CarlottaVance

AlsoIndigo said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.

Welcome to PB, where people argue with that they wish you had said and berate you for what they think you believe Oh, and try and make you guilty by association for who your house's previous tenant's auntie's dog's former owner voted for

And invent long lists of supporters of the other team demanding outrageous things like mass deportations....then go curiously quiet when asked to name any of them individuually....

Pulpstar

The_Apocalypse said:

Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.

It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.

The_Apocalypse

Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?

https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

CarlottaVance

The MHS & Brexit climb the IPSOS issues index, while worries about the economy fade:

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3849/Concerns-about-the-NHS-and-the-EUBrexit-continue-to-rise.aspx

The_Apocalypse

CarlottaVance said:

AlsoIndigo said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.

Welcome to PB, where people argue with that they wish you had said and berate you for what they think you believe Oh, and try and make you guilty by association for who your house's previous tenant's auntie's dog's former owner voted for

And invent long lists of supporters of the other team demanding outrageous things like mass deportations....then go curiously quiet when asked to name any of them individuually....

Mass deportations? Huh?

TheScreamingEagles

The_Apocalypse said:

Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?

https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

A Logan Act violation?

Lock him up!

Pulpstar

The_Apocalypse said:

Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?

https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

I think Sessions will have to go over this. AG confirmation is under oath is it not ?

Roger

isam said:

"When we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets us off on a two-year negotiation to leave the EU, part of that renegotiations is what happens to retired people from Britain living on the Costa del Sol and what happens to people from Warsaw living in London

Let me make this clear, during our divorce negotiations, even if the EU was to behave badly and say [British] people living in Spain were to be threatened with not being there, we would maintain the line that we believe in the rule of law, we believe in British justice and we believe that anyone who has come to Britain legally has the right to remain."

The nice party. Please distinguish between ukip & the loony nasty leavers @AlastairMeeks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30111694

So leopards can change their spots! It's a wise decision. This isn't making the Tories or May look a all good. Even the threat of mass deportations puts you in a category that makes most civilised people gulp.

Morris_Dancer

F1: Mercedes has not been seen so far today, due to investigating an electrical issue.

isam

Roger said:

isam said:

"When we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets us off on a two-year negotiation to leave the EU, part of that renegotiations is what happens to retired people from Britain living on the Costa del Sol and what happens to people from Warsaw living in London

Let me make this clear, during our divorce negotiations, even if the EU was to behave badly and say [British] people living in Spain were to be threatened with not being there, we would maintain the line that we believe in the rule of law, we believe in British justice and we believe that anyone who has come to Britain legally has the right to remain."

The nice party. Please distinguish between ukip & the loony nasty leavers @AlastairMeeks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30111694

So leopards can change their spots! It's a wise decision. This isn't making the Tories or May look a all good. Even the threat of mass deportations puts you in a category that makes most civilised people gulp.

That was Farage speaking in 2014. He said the same last night, but I can't guarantee that the current ukip hierarchy will continue with his compassionate approach

AlsoIndigo

The_Apocalypse said:

Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?

https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Maybe. As I understand it he was asked about communications between Russia and the Trump campaign. He maintains he met with the Russian ambassador in his capacity as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and that he had had similar meetings with 25 other ambassadors, so I guess it comes down to whether he can produce evidence, such as a letter or instruction, that such was the nature of the meeting, or his opponents can prove that they were not.

bigjohnowls

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Dixie

Pulpstar said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.

It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.

which will be great, but it will still be boring. Likely to occur on same day as local elections; which won't be boring.

perdix

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Frustrated lefties trying to stir up trouble for the government.

AlsoIndigo

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Yes, for failing to hold the government to account on those as is his job.

Stark_Dawning

isam said:

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/837225737400815616

I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.

Dixie

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

Truss and Morgan only got their jobs because they are female. Stupid PC world. Greening is great. Jane Ellison is superb and should be in the cabinet.

Dixie

Dixie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

Truss and Morgan only got their jobs because they are female. Stupid PC world. Greening is great. Jane Ellison is superb and should be in the cabinet.

I also think the MP who replaced Vince Cable should get a chance. She's very bright.

AlsoIndigo

Stark_Dawning said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/837225737400815616

I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.

It would be pretty unusual in the normal scheme of things to foster a child, and find out they were actually an adult!

Quite why we think we can take people from fairly basic living conditions, in a fairly brutal culture, in a country that has been at war pretty much for the whole of living memory, with very little in the way of national institutions, and expect them to fit in to polite western society I don't know.

bigjohnowls

AlsoIndigo said:

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Yes, for failing to hold the government to account on those as is his job.

PB Tory Responsibility index

Government circa 0%

Last Labour Government/ Corbyn circa 100% depending on circumstances.

Pulpstar

Dixie said:

Pulpstar said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.

It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.

which will be great, but it will still be boring. Likely to occur on same day as local elections; which won't be boring.

2012 NEV

Con 31
Lab 38
Lib Dem 16

A 6 pt lead is Corbyn's target.

CarlottaVance

Far too sensible:

Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.

“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says

david_herdson

Pulpstar said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.

It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.

A Lab - Con swing is almost inevitable. Labour had a 57.4% lead over the Tories in 2015, having gained a huge 22.7% swing from the Lib Dems against 2010. Kaufman's two-thirds share of the vote in 2015 was Labour's highest in the constituency since 1945. (The figures for 2005 and 2010 were 53.2 and 50.1 respectively).

Even without current levels of support for Con, we could reasonably expect some unwind of that LD-Lab swing and as such, a technical Lab-Con swing, particuarly with Con starting at sub-10% and as such, with little space to fall.

DecrepitJohnL

Carolus_Rex said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.

Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.

Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.

It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?

Or kicking Gove out of education and turning a friend into a dangerous enemy?

Michael Gove left a mess behind him at Justice as well as Education. Though one might applaud his enlightened liberal instincts and ambitions, he fell down on the day job of just keeping schools and prisons ticking over with enough places and staff. Gove would not be the first or last minister unsuited to the daily grind of management, leadership and, well, politics, and might have been better promoted to the Keith Joseph memorial peerage for thinking important thoughts.

Pulpstar

AlsoIndigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/837225737400815616

I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.

It would be pretty unusual in the normal scheme of things to foster a child, and find out they were actually an adult!

Quite why we think we can take people from fairly basic living conditions, in a fairly brutal culture, in a country that has been at war pretty much for the whole of living memory, with very little in the way of national institutions, and expect them to fit in to polite western society I don't know.

Interesting that he had a bone density exam in Belgium which was good enough for them to rule he was more like 20 than 12 (Of course these things are never exact..).
Why wasn't this information passed on to ourselves ? I thought that was what the EU was supposed to be all about.
Its these small things, a dental check up here; slightly more stringent controls relating to work in Belgium than here; a contibutory benefits system there - that all added up methinks...

david_herdson

Pulpstar said:

Dixie said:

Pulpstar said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.

It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.

which will be great, but it will still be boring. Likely to occur on same day as local elections; which won't be boring.

2012 NEV

Con 31
Lab 38
Lib Dem 16

A 6 pt lead is Corbyn's target.

Interesting, although the elections in England were last contested in 2013.

FF43

AlsoIndigo said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?

https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Maybe. As I understand it he was asked about communications between Russia and the Trump campaign. He maintains he met with the Russian ambassador in his capacity as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and that he had had similar meetings with 25 other ambassadors, so I guess it comes down to whether he can produce evidence, such as a letter or instruction, that such was the nature of the meeting, or his opponents can prove that they were not.

Jeff Sessions was asked under oath in a Senate committee about communications between the Trump campaign and Russia, when he said he had had no communications. It turns out he did have a private meeting with the Russian ambassador while he was part of that campaign. His defence is that he didn't discuss the Trump campaign. If you believe that or don't have any proof to the contrary, it comes down to what you understand by the word "communications" in that context. I think he's skating on very thin ice but will survive.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39136118

rkrkrk

Stark_Dawning said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/837225737400815616

I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.

It's a terrible story if true.
How many other foster kids has that guy ruined things for?

Cyclefree

Morning all.

The Gorton by-election is the second one in which a Cyclefree family member will get a vote. Copeland was the other one.

Who knew life could be so exciting!?

freetochoose

UKIP will cease to exist before long, the final nail will be when the MEPs are no more, funding will dry up considerably. That's a terrible shame, they helped shape politics in this country.

Ishmael_Z

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Well thank God for that, another day of Wrong Winner at Oscars would have finished me off.

Corbyn's fault mainly, but Brexit must take its share of the blame.

DecrepitJohnL

CarlottaVance said:

Far too sensible:

Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.

“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says

A monumentally stupid idea suggesting Green knows sod all about politics, leadership or management.

AlsoIndigo

FF43 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?

https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Maybe. As I understand it he was asked about communications between Russia and the Trump campaign. He maintains he met with the Russian ambassador in his capacity as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and that he had had similar meetings with 25 other ambassadors, so I guess it comes down to whether he can produce evidence, such as a letter or instruction, that such was the nature of the meeting, or his opponents can prove that they were not.

Jeff Sessions was asked under oath in a Senate committee about communications between the Trump campaign and Russia, when he said he had had no communications. It turns out he did have a private meeting with the Russian ambassador while he was part of that campaign. His defence is that he didn't discuss the Trump campaign. If you believe that or don't have any proof to the contrary, it comes down to what you understand by the word "communications" in that context. I think he's skating on very thin ice but will survive.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39136118

I agree. There is a certain amount of spin from both sides. This article from NBC says more or less the same but seems to feel the ice is somewhat thicker than the BBC does.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/sessions-met-russian-ambassador-didn-t-mislead-senate-spokeswoman-n727966

david_herdson

CarlottaVance said:

Far too sensible:

Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.

“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says

You cannot run a government like a business for the same reason that you cannot run a business like a government. Democracy does not work that way. (Arguably, far too many businesses *are* run with excessive considerations of internal politics but that's a different matter!)

AlsoIndigo

rkrkrk said:

Stark_Dawning said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/837225737400815616

I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.

It's a terrible story if true.
How many other foster kids has that guy ruined things for?

If you foster in the UK, the child will usually come from being in care and will have a detailed record and the social worker will take you through the highlights, so you will know pretty much what you are getting, someone fresh from Calais and before that a war zone, not so much.

AlastairMeeks

Cyclefree said:

Morning all.

The Gorton by-election is the second one in which a Cyclefree family member will get a vote. Copeland was the other one.

Who knew life could be so exciting!?

The Cyclefree family: changing the electoral landscape, one seat at a time.

[Deleted User]

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Could cite you these - would be helpful, because they look like bollocks.
eg 20% fall in living standards seems impossible given a nicely growing economy and population growth 0.6% - living standards are rising quite fast!
Who is deciding if a hosptial is unsafe?
Affordable housing that was there is still there - it's just occupied. So do you mean new build? Do you mean currently available for rent? What's driving supply and demand? Supply is increasing but demand is growing faster - so there is a pressure. How does immigration play into this?
Are Owen Jones and McMao your data sources?

isam

https://twitter.com/thedailymash/status/837251428683026432

AlastairMeeks

@isam I'll brush up my MS Paint skills for a suitable Venn diagram of Leaveworld.

FF43

bigjohnowls said:

AlsoIndigo said:

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Yes, for failing to hold the government to account on those as is his job.

PB Tory Responsibility index

Government circa 0%

Last Labour Government/ Corbyn circa 100% depending on circumstances.

It's nonsensical for supporters of a party to blame failures on the opposition for not holding their own party to account. Heck, they could hold their own party to account for failures that happened on its watch.

bigjohnowls

Patrick said:

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Could cite you these - would be helpful, because they look like bollocks.
eg 20% fall in living standards seems impossible given a nicely growing economy and population growth 0.6% - living standards are rising quite fast!
Who is deciding if a hosptial is unsafe?
Affordable housing that was there is still there - it's just occupied. So do you mean new build? Do you mean currently available for rent? What's driving supply and demand? Supply is increasing but demand is growing faster - so there is a pressure. How does immigration play into this?
Are Owen Jones and McMao your data sources?

CQC, HM GOV, IFS

AlsoIndigo

bigjohnowls said:

Patrick said:

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Could cite you these - would be helpful, because they look like bollocks.
eg 20% fall in living standards seems impossible given a nicely growing economy and population growth 0.6% - living standards are rising quite fast!
Who is deciding if a hosptial is unsafe?
Affordable housing that was there is still there - it's just occupied. So do you mean new build? Do you mean currently available for rent? What's driving supply and demand? Supply is increasing but demand is growing faster - so there is a pressure. How does immigration play into this?
Are Owen Jones and McMao your data sources?

CQC, HM GOV, IFS

Link ? I am not of course suggestion that there is some small print or selective reading going on, but you can't be too careful these days.

freetochoose

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

These unsafe hospitals - does it mean they're falling down, full of criminals or poorly trained staff?

Sounds like nonsense to me

Richard_Nabavi

Bravo to @John_M for the coinage of the year on the previous thread:

John_M said:

Good morning all. The obvious answer is for us to invoke article 50 as soon as possible, so all this pent up good faith can finally be released.

LOL!

AndyJS

Pulpstar said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.

It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.

As others have said, the Tory vote is already at rock bottom and Labour can only go down from 68% or whatever it is. Most likely is Labour around 50-55% and Tories 12-15%. But you never know whether the Greens or LDs might get some traction in a by-election like this.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

Bravo to @John_M for the coinage of the year on the previous thread:

John_M said:

Good morning all. The obvious answer is for us to invoke article 50 as soon as possible, so all this pent up good faith can finally be released.

LOL!

I have a feeling that particular cork won't damage the ceiling with the explosiveness of the pop.

AlsoIndigo

AlsoIndigo said:

bigjohnowls said:

Patrick said:

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

Could cite you these - would be helpful, because they look like bollocks.
eg 20% fall in living standards seems impossible given a nicely growing economy and population growth 0.6% - living standards are rising quite fast!
Who is deciding if a hosptial is unsafe?
Affordable housing that was there is still there - it's just occupied. So do you mean new build? Do you mean currently available for rent? What's driving supply and demand? Supply is increasing but demand is growing faster - so there is a pressure. How does immigration play into this?
Are Owen Jones and McMao your data sources?

CQC, HM GOV, IFS

Link ? I am not of course suggestion that there is some small print or selective reading going on, but you can't be too careful these days.

Oh! well there is a shock.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/02/ifs-growth-uk-living-standards-worst-in-60-years-pensions-poverty-budget

The IFS calculated that average household incomes will be 18% lower in 2021-22 than could have been reasonably expected in 2007-08, before the global financial crisis took hold of the economy. It means a childless couple would be about £5,900 a year worse off than they might otherwise have been, rising to £8,300 for a couple with two young children.

So what you meant to say was that in 4-5 years time we could be 20% worse off than we might have been if the Great Financial Crisis hadn't happened. Hold the press!

bigjohnowls

freetochoose said:

bigjohnowls said:

It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news

•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards

Corbyns fault presumably

These unsafe hospitals - does it mean they're falling down, full of criminals or poorly trained staff?

Sounds like nonsense to me

and CQC get paid a fortune to inform you too

timmo

The latest lib dem adult movie starring Sarah Olney and Tom Brake.. Fifty shades of yellow

https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/837076333700120576/pu/img/to-I4sYHWnuS-tx5.jpg

nunu

Theresa May Gains Nothern Ireland! Lol.

CarlottaVance

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Far too sensible:

Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.

“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says

A monumentally stupid idea suggesting Green knows sod all about politics, leadership or management.

david_herdson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Far too sensible:

Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.

“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says

You cannot run a government like a business for the same reason that you cannot run a business like a government. Democracy does not work that way. (Arguably, far too many businesses *are* run with excessive considerations of internal politics but that's a different matter!)

So, you can't set Ministers objectives, identify their skills, their strengths to build on or weaknesses to address and measure their progress and review.

Why not?

Tissue_Price

An important counterpoint to the argument that Labour should be for Remain since its supporters are. In truth they have few good options.

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/837257004754284545