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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A grim set of local by-elections for Corbyn’s LAB losing a seat in Salford to CON and seeing average vote share down 13.4%

Mudeford and Friars Cliffe on Christchurch (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservative 629 (47% -9%), Independent 466 (35%, no candidate at last election), Labour 91 (7% -9%), UKIP 85 (6% -22%), Green Party 72 (5%, no candidate at last election) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 163 (12%) on a notional swing of 22% from Con to Ind

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Mortimer

First, like the Tories!

MarqueeMark

Maybe second at best, like Labour

Jonathan

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

Recidivist

Fourth - like anyone cares what position this post is in the thread.

Mortimer

Recidivist said:

Fourth - like anyone cares what position this post is in the thread.

SeanT is quite a fan of top 5 finishes, I've heard

SandyRentool

"...on a swing of 10.5% from Lab to Con"

This is where swing gets silly. The real wing would appear to be from Labour to Independent and UKIP, all though there could be second order effects underlying the headline figures. Anyhow, a crap result for us - and a pointer to Gorton?

rottenborough

SeanT said:

@zerohedge 36m36 minutes ago
More
Fillon done: FRANCE'S CENTRE-RIGHT UDI PARTY WILL ANNOUNCE ON FRIDAY IT IS WITHDRAWING SUPPORT FOR FILLON - SOURCE CLOSE TO PARTY LEADERSHIP

Juppe saying he'll do it now:

http://www.france24.com/en/20170303-juppe-waits-wings-embattled-fillon-quits-french-race

MarqueeMark

SandyRentool said:

"...on a swing of 10.5% from Lab to Con"

This is where swing gets silly. The real wing would appear to be from Labour to Independent and UKIP, all though there could be second order effects underlying the headline figures. Anyhow, a crap result for us - and a pointer to Gorton?

Nah. Running a rabbi in Gorton isn't going to get a 10.5% swing to the Tories!

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837645264995373056

The election has not necessarily ended to The UUP's advantage.

rottenborough

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

rottenborough

In the name of God (and my betting book), Fillon, go and let Juppe run.

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837652248431833088

Pulpstar

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837645264995373056

The election has not necessarily ended to The UUP's advantage.

I have 4 UUP bets, 3 of which are looking like losers.

Danny Kennedy in Newry and Armagh looking the only possible winner. Most allowed on and shortest price too...

Novo

At Newcomen Conservatives polled 29 votes. Pretty miserable set of results for Labour across the board.

Recidivist

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

rottenborough

PARIS — François Fillon will withdraw from the French presidential race next week if a rally of his supporters called for Sunday in Paris fails to be the show of force he expects, one of his closest aides told POLITICO.

http://www.politico.eu/article/fillon-to-quit-presidential-race-if-sunday-rally-flops-aide/

rottenborough

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

Pulpstar

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837652248431833088

Well that isn't terrible for the UUP, depends on the balance but that might give John Stewart half a sniff.

AlsoIndigo

FPT:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

My word., commiserations and best wishes to all the PB-ers who are variously poorly, ailing, and under-the-weather. I myself have quite the hangover.

I am merely incredibly soggy. If 'raining' was an Olympic sport, Wales would win gold every time. Wonderful to see the post-Brexit healing process continuing apace on PB. I can almost taste the love.

If raining was an Olympic sport it wouldn't even get into the final heat Cardiff is the rainiest place in the UK with around 140cm annual rainfall. We had that much in Jan/Feb, and average just over 300cm annually

Pulpstar

rottenborough said:

PARIS — François Fillon will withdraw from the French presidential race next week if a rally of his supporters called for Sunday in Paris fails to be the show of force he expects, one of his closest aides told POLITICO.

http://www.politico.eu/article/fillon-to-quit-presidential-race-if-sunday-rally-flops-aide/

Politico !

Lets hope they were as right about the French as they were about the US

Essexit

A lot of Labour voters don't have cars, you know.

sealo0

As per the Evening Standard

One for SeanT

Ex-Bond girl and model Catherine McQueen to stand as Tory Councillor in Camden and Primrose Hill

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/exbond-girl-and-model-catherine-mcqueen-to-stand-as-tory-councillor-in-camden-and-primrose-hill-a3480581.html

wasd

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

FrancisUrquhart

Essexit said:

A lot of Labour voters don't have cars, you know.

Or toothpaste...

AlastairMeeks

It's not that Labour's results this week are dismal, it's the consistently dismal pattern.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/837614589420449792

Pulpstar

Hilditch DUP 6000
Beggs UUP 5121
Dickson Alli 4179
Lyons DUP 3851
McMullin SF 3701
Stewart UUP 3377
Ross DUP 3313

Look to be the runners and riders for the 5 seats there.

Richard_Nabavi

In a rare piece of good news for François Fillon, it turns out that the earlier report about Les Jeunes Avec Fillon no longer being avec him was fake news, and instead it was a splinter group of Les Jeunes Avec Fillon who are no longer being avec him.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/03/35003-20170303LIVWWW00127-francois-fillon-demissions-lr-presidentielle-republicains-elus-thierry-solere-alain-juppe.php

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837655343542988800

kle4

a grim set of by-elections is fine so long as there's no sign of trouble at parliamentary. Oh wait.

Dixie

SandyRentool said:

"...on a swing of 10.5% from Lab to Con"

This is where swing gets silly. The real wing would appear to be from Labour to Independent and UKIP, all though there could be second order effects underlying the headline figures. Anyhow, a crap result for us - and a pointer to Gorton?

Labour could put a monkey up in Gorton and Labour will win. That's not been done before? Has it! #hangus the monkey

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not that Labour's results this week are dismal, it's the consistently dismal pattern.

They are doing badly in all sorts of seats.

Stoke (Safish Labour with a split of the vote)
Copeland (Lab-Tory marginal which shouldn't be). Probably safe Tory at the next election.
Richmond (Lib/Tory marginal)
Sleaford (Leavey safe Tory seat)

I expect the pattern will continue in Gorton (V safe Lab remain seat).

kle4

SeanT said:

Fillon cannot continue, this is death by a thousand cuts

Juppe v Le Pen????

Dust off those 'vote for the crook not the fascist signs'.

Wait, isn't Le Pen also being investigated for things. Vote for the crook or the crook i guess?

Carolus_Rex

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Essexit

Richard_Nabavi said:

In a rare piece of good news for François Fillon, it turns out that the earlier report about Les Jeunes Avec Fillon no longer being avec him was fake news, and instead it was a splinter group of Les Jeunes Avec Fillon who are no longer being avec him.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/03/35003-20170303LIVWWW00127-francois-fillon-demissions-lr-presidentielle-republicains-elus-thierry-solere-alain-juppe.php

This kind of thing is wreaking avec on his campaign.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

In a rare piece of good news for François Fillon, it turns out that the earlier report about Les Jeunes Avec Fillon no longer being avec him was fake news, and instead it was a splinter group of Les Jeunes Avec Fillon who are no longer being avec him.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/03/35003-20170303LIVWWW00127-francois-fillon-demissions-lr-presidentielle-republicains-elus-thierry-solere-alain-juppe.php

The mind boggles what the provisional wing of Fillon Youth are like.

AlsoIndigo

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

Fillon cannot continue, this is death by a thousand cuts

Juppe v Le Pen????

Dust off those 'vote for the crook not the fascist signs'.

Wait, isn't Le Pen also being investigated for things. Vote for the crook or the crook i guess?

She is being investigated for posting nasty things about terrorists (and being done by terrorists) not sure being a martyr to that cause is going to suppress her vote very much.

Carolus_Rex

Essexit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In a rare piece of good news for François Fillon, it turns out that the earlier report about Les Jeunes Avec Fillon no longer being avec him was fake news, and instead it was a splinter group of Les Jeunes Avec Fillon who are no longer being avec him.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/03/35003-20170303LIVWWW00127-francois-fillon-demissions-lr-presidentielle-republicains-elus-thierry-solere-alain-juppe.php

This kind of thing is wreaking avec on his campaign.

Bravo!

Pulpstar

In terms of betting Macron vs Fillon would be best for me now. Juppe-Le Pen would leave me underwater, though I expect Juppe would win it handily leaving me with a small profit.

It will probably be Macron-Le Pen though.

AlastairMeeks

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Scott_P

Clear your diary...

https://twitter.com/ridgeonsunday/status/837656470363734016

rcs1000

SeanT said:

Fillon cannot continue, this is death by a thousand cuts

Juppe v Le Pen????

The Odexa poll has it as Macron vs Juppe.

But who knows. This French Presidential election has more twists and turns than a twisty turny thing.

CornishBlue

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

Clear your diary...

twitter.com/ridgeonsunday/status/837656470363734016

Which Paul Nuttall?

Scott_P

FrancisUrquhart said:

Which Paul Nuttall?

MP for Stoke, right?

rcs1000

rottenborough said:

PARIS — François Fillon will withdraw from the French presidential race next week if a rally of his supporters called for Sunday in Paris fails to be the show of force he expects, one of his closest aides told POLITICO.

http://www.politico.eu/article/fillon-to-quit-presidential-race-if-sunday-rally-flops-aide/

If I were a Macron supporter, I'd be turning up to wave a flag at that rally.

Mortimer

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In a rare piece of good news for François Fillon, it turns out that the earlier report about Les Jeunes Avec Fillon no longer being avec him was fake news, and instead it was a splinter group of Les Jeunes Avec Fillon who are no longer being avec him.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/03/35003-20170303LIVWWW00127-francois-fillon-demissions-lr-presidentielle-republicains-elus-thierry-solere-alain-juppe.php

The mind boggles what the provisional wing of Fillon Youth are like.

1980s Young Conservatives?

Mortimer

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

BudG

Pulpstar said:

In terms of betting Macron vs Fillon would be best for me now. Juppe-Le Pen would leave me underwater, though I expect Juppe would win it handily leaving me with a small profit.

It will probably be Macron-Le Pen though.

Hope Macron v Fillon comes off for you. I got 19 quid on that at odds of just over 100/1 last night.

Edit: Ooops.. sorry. mis-read your post. It was Juppe v Macron I had my bet on.

kle4

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Has to be set against the reduction in efficiency and creativity by tying down the people.

SandyRentool

sealo0 said:

As per the Evening Standard

One for SeanT

Ex-Bond girl and model Catherine McQueen to stand as Tory Councillor in Camden and Primrose Hill

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/exbond-girl-and-model-catherine-mcqueen-to-stand-as-tory-councillor-in-camden-and-primrose-hill-a3480581.html

Standing on an anti-drugs platform is brave in that neck of the woods.

Carolus_Rex

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In a rare piece of good news for François Fillon, it turns out that the earlier report about Les Jeunes Avec Fillon no longer being avec him was fake news, and instead it was a splinter group of Les Jeunes Avec Fillon who are no longer being avec him.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/03/35003-20170303LIVWWW00127-francois-fillon-demissions-lr-presidentielle-republicains-elus-thierry-solere-alain-juppe.php

The mind boggles what the provisional wing of Fillon Youth are like.

1980s Young Conservatives?

You mean the Federation of Conservative Students, members of whom actually did on occasion refer to themselves as the Provisional Wing (in private, mostly, and well out of earshot of anyone from Smith Square!)

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Which Paul Nuttall?

MP for Stoke, right?

Long time local resident...

CornishBlue

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

No idea but she is the perfect embodiment of the Southern I'm-alright-Jack Remainiac.

rcs1000

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

I don't have audio; what is she saying?

AndreaParma_82

South Antrim

DUP 33.7 (-3.8)
UUP 20.8 (-1.4)
SF 16.3 /(+3.1)
Alliance 12.5 (+3.6)
SDLP 9.8 (-0.1)

Mortimer

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

I don't have audio; what is she saying?

(Without European workers) Who would serve us coffee and sandwiches in pret?!

AlastairMeeks

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

I don't have audio; what is she saying?

She's saying that in London immigrants are needed to serve coffee and sandwiches.

The considered Leaver position continues to be that the fruit should pick itself.

Pulpstar

BudG said:

Pulpstar said:

In terms of betting Macron vs Fillon would be best for me now. Juppe-Le Pen would leave me underwater, though I expect Juppe would win it handily leaving me with a small profit.

It will probably be Macron-Le Pen though.

Hope Macron v Fillon comes off for you. I got 19 quid on that at odds of just over 100/1 last night.

Edit: Ooops.. sorry. mis-read your post. It was Juppe v Macron I had my bet on.

-430.5 Le Pen
+189.44 Macron
+533.59 Fillon
+99.65 Juppe
+20.59 Other
+357.63 Baroin
+74.74 Melenchon
-170.36 Hamon

is where I'm at now.

JackW

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Antrim

DUP 33.7 (-3.8)
UUP 20.8 (-1.4)
SF 16.3 /(+3.1)
Alliance 12.5 (+3.6)
SDLP 9.8 (-0.1)

Huzzah for PB's most famous Italian contributor and site legend ..

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

American academe today. Charles Murray tries to give a speech to young US college students. Watch from about 18:50

There is something genuinely sinister about it. A kind of self-harming, wilful stupidity, a determination to be less educated, allied to a bullying moral righteousness, with an implicit if unwitting threat of violence.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6EASuhefeI&t=1524s

Unfortunately the stupidity is catching on over here...both students and authorities...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/03/02/university-bans-phrases-right-hand-man-gentlemans-agreement/

AndreaParma_82

Belfast West

Orliathi Flynn SF 6918 (elected on first stage)
Maskey SF 6346
McCann SF 6201
Sheehan SF 5466
People Before Profit 4093
DUP 4063
People Before Profit 1096
SDLP 3452
Alliace 747
UUP 486
Workers Party 415
Greenss 251

HYUFD

New Kantar poll Le Pen 27% Macron 25% https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/835921844343537665

david_herdson

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

AndreaParma_82

Hi Jack!

AlsoIndigo

AlastairMeeks said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

I don't have audio; what is she saying?

She's saying that in London immigrants are needed to serve coffee and sandwiches.

The considered Leaver position continues to be that the fruit should pick itself.

Only in your fantasy land where borders are slammed shut and drawbridges lifted, and no visa whatsoever issued for any purpose.

TheScreamingEagles

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

Headline says

David Herdson: Labour moderates should consider a second leadership challenge

But the byline says

Written by David Singleton on 3 March 2017 in Opinion

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

New Kanfar poll Le Pen 27% Macron 25% https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/835921844343537665

That tweet is from 26 Feb.

Pulpstar

AndreaParma_82 said:

Belfast West

Orliathi Flynn SF 6918 (elected on first stage)
Maskey SF 6346
McCann SF 6201
Sheehan SF 5466
People Before Profit 4093
DUP 4063
People Before Profit 1096
SDLP 3452
Alliace 747
UUP 486
Workers Party 415
Greenss 251

4 SF, 1 PBP - almost certain.

madasafish

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

I worked on farms as a student. Hard work - if you survived the first week you toughened up.
tremendous parties..

david_herdson

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not that Labour's results this week are dismal, it's the consistently dismal pattern.

They are doing badly in all sorts of seats.

Stoke (Safish Labour with a split of the vote)
Copeland (Lab-Tory marginal which shouldn't be). Probably safe Tory at the next election.
Richmond (Lib/Tory marginal)
Sleaford (Leavey safe Tory seat)

I expect the pattern will continue in Gorton (V safe Lab remain seat).

Gorton isn't as safe as the 2015 numbers imply. It was a 24,000 majority for Kaufman then but he only had a 6,700 majority in 2010 and 5,800 in 2005.

The Lib Dems will fancy their chances and I could easily see a Lab majority of just a tenth what it was at the last general election.

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

Headline says

David Herdson: Labour moderates should consider a second leadership challenge

But the byline says

Written by David Singleton on 3 March 2017 in Opinion

Ah. That'll be why I'm blocked from reading it!

(To be fair, the *headline* is his; the rest of it should be mine though).

John_M

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We only shut down SAWS in 2013 (it ran in various forms for 60 years).

Here is more information than you ever felt you needed on the entire topic.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/257242/migrant-seasonal-workers.pdf

Pulpstar

Are the Jeuenes still "avec" Fillon ?

Cookie

I don't know if this has already been noted, but Kersal is extremely Jewish - getting on for 25%. Not the sort of territory to look kindly on Jeremy Corbyn.

Pulpstar

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not that Labour's results this week are dismal, it's the consistently dismal pattern.

They are doing badly in all sorts of seats.

Stoke (Safish Labour with a split of the vote)
Copeland (Lab-Tory marginal which shouldn't be). Probably safe Tory at the next election.
Richmond (Lib/Tory marginal)
Sleaford (Leavey safe Tory seat)

I expect the pattern will continue in Gorton (V safe Lab remain seat).

Gorton isn't as safe as the 2015 numbers imply. It was a 24,000 majority for Kaufman then but he only had a 6,700 majority in 2010 and 5,800 in 2005.

The Lib Dems will fancy their chances and I could easily see a Lab majority of just a tenth what it was at the last general election.

My main question is - Where can Labour do "Well" and by well I mean get a decent swing toward & win in a by-election ?

AlastairMeeks

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

I can't criticise because I agree with it completely.

JackW

AndreaParma_82 said:

Hi Jack!

Are you following the ministerial career of Hunky Dinky Dunky with deep interest ? ..

Richard_Nabavi

Pulpstar said:

Are the Jeuenes still "avec" Fillon ?

They seem to be squabbling and threatening legal action over who owns the Twitter account @JeunesFillon.

AlastairMeeks

AlsoIndigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

I don't have audio; what is she saying?

She's saying that in London immigrants are needed to serve coffee and sandwiches.

The considered Leaver position continues to be that the fruit should pick itself.

Only in your fantasy land where borders are slammed shut and drawbridges lifted, and no visa whatsoever issued for any purpose.

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Richard_Nabavi

My favourite tweet on the subject:

Paul Personne‏ @Gangstapacol

#JeSaisQueJaiUnPeuTropBuQuand je vois que les @JeunesFillon demandent le retrait de @FrancoisFillon mais c'est bien drôle

Carolus_Rex

madasafish said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

I worked on farms as a student. Hard work - if you survived the first week you toughened up.
tremendous parties..

I never worked on farms but I did work in a fruit packing factory and that was hard enough. No wonder they invented gap years.

John_M

AlsoIndigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

I don't have audio; what is she saying?

She's saying that in London immigrants are needed to serve coffee and sandwiches.

The considered Leaver position continues to be that the fruit should pick itself.

Only in your fantasy land where borders are slammed shut and drawbridges lifted, and no visa whatsoever issued for any purpose.

The second phase of Brexit is for England to be towed 500 miles out into the mid-Atlantic. Personally I think the government will have performed a miracle if immigration drops below 150k per year (that's with students being excluded). We're all far too fond of marrying out, if nothing else.

AndreaParma_82

South Belfast

DUP 20.8 (-1.2)
SLDP 19.4 (-0.6)
Alliance 17.8 /+1.4)
Sinn Fein 17.7 (+3.5)
Greens 9.9

Máirtín Ó Muilleoir from SF is elected on first stage. DUP, SDLP and Alliance have 2 candidates

TheScreamingEagles

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

Headline says

David Herdson: Labour moderates should consider a second leadership challenge

But the byline says

Written by David Singleton on 3 March 2017 in Opinion

Ah. That'll be why I'm blocked from reading it!

(To be fair, the *headline* is his; the rest of it should be mine though).

On the substantive part of your piece, I agree 100% with you.

The longer Corbyn stays the more Labour are buggered.

Under someone else they could get the short of result the Tories got in 2005, by leaving Corbyn in charge they will get 1983 style result.

justin124

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not that Labour's results this week are dismal, it's the consistently dismal pattern.

They are doing badly in all sorts of seats.

Stoke (Safish Labour with a split of the vote)
Copeland (Lab-Tory marginal which shouldn't be). Probably safe Tory at the next election.
Richmond (Lib/Tory marginal)
Sleaford (Leavey safe Tory seat)

I expect the pattern will continue in Gorton (V safe Lab remain seat).

Gorton isn't as safe as the 2015 numbers imply. It was a 24,000 majority for Kaufman then but he only had a 6,700 majority in 2010 and 5,800 in 2005.

The Lib Dems will fancy their chances and I could easily see a Lab majority of just a tenth what it was at the last general election.

My main question is - Where can Labour do "Well" and by well I mean get a decent swing toward & win in a by-election ?

They last managed that at Tooting in mid-June.

AndreaParma_82

North Down

DUP Democratic Unionist Party 37.5 (-4.2)
UUP Ulster Unionist Party 21.5 (+6)
APNI Alliance Party 18.6 (+1.8)
GRN Green Party 13.7 (+1.0)
IND Independent 3.3
OTH OTHERS 5.4

Elected on first prefs:

Alex Easton DUP
Alan Chambers UUP
Stephen Farry Alliance

AndreaParma_82

DUP and Greens should take the other 2 seats in North Down

Richard_Nabavi

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

It's a good piece (as one would expect!), but if I were a Labour moderate wondering whether to take the disinterested advice of the Chairman of Wakefield District Conservatives, I'd be worrying about three potential downsides:

- What happens if we try to dislodge Corbyn and fail again?
- What would the effect on the party be if we win, but only by blocking a left-wing candidate from getting on to the ballot?
- Can we get agreement on a single unifying candidate, or would we be in for yet another bruising and divisive contest?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/837665421109170176

SandyRentool

AlastairMeeks said:

AlsoIndigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

I don't have audio; what is she saying?

She's saying that in London immigrants are needed to serve coffee and sandwiches.

The considered Leaver position continues to be that the fruit should pick itself.

Only in your fantasy land where borders are slammed shut and drawbridges lifted, and no visa whatsoever issued for any purpose.

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

The price of fruit rises, fruit growers are incentivised to pay higher wages to get their fruit to market, and people who previously weren't interested in the low wages become fruit pickers.

The rest of us pay more for our fruit, but our taxes go down because all of the new tranche of fruit pickers are no longer signing on. Everyone is a winner. Except Jonny Foreigner, who has been told by Lord Tebbitt to get on his bike and look for work somewhere else.

(I plan to submit this as an Economics MA thesis. Distinction nailed-on?)

Pulpstar

#NIreland (33% counted)
#DUP: 27% (-2)
#SF: 27% (+3)
#UUP: 14% (+1)
#SDLP: 12%
#A: 9% (+2)
#TUV: 3% (-1)
#Green: 3%
#PbP: 1% (-1) #AE17

Apparently.

Pulpstar

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not that Labour's results this week are dismal, it's the consistently dismal pattern.

They are doing badly in all sorts of seats.

Stoke (Safish Labour with a split of the vote)
Copeland (Lab-Tory marginal which shouldn't be). Probably safe Tory at the next election.
Richmond (Lib/Tory marginal)
Sleaford (Leavey safe Tory seat)

I expect the pattern will continue in Gorton (V safe Lab remain seat).

Gorton isn't as safe as the 2015 numbers imply. It was a 24,000 majority for Kaufman then but he only had a 6,700 majority in 2010 and 5,800 in 2005.

The Lib Dems will fancy their chances and I could easily see a Lab majority of just a tenth what it was at the last general election.

My main question is - Where can Labour do "Well" and by well I mean get a decent swing toward & win in a by-election ?

They last managed that at Tooting in mid-June.

Pre EU ref, Corbyn vs Cameron...

Fishing

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Eh? If the facts are as reported, fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.

AndreaParma_82

Foyle


SF Sinn Féin 36.6 (+8.2)
SDLP SDLP 31.8 (+1.8)
DUP Democratic Unionist Party 13.4 (+1.5)
PBPA People Before Profit Alliance 10.7
UUP Ulster Unionist Party 3.7
OTH OTHERS 3.8


Elisha McCallion (SF) elected in first stage.

Her sweater doesn't pass unnoticed
https://twitter.com/freyamcc/status/837666628175347713

Richard_Nabavi

SandyRentool said:

(I plan to submit this as an Economics MA thesis. Distinction nailed-on?)

You'd need to rewrite it in incomprehensible gobbledygook to get a Distinction.

Verulamius

RTE has a good website for the Assembly Elections.

http://www.rte.ie/news/assembly-election-2017/results/

Cookie

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not that Labour's results this week are dismal, it's the consistently dismal pattern.

They are doing badly in all sorts of seats.

Stoke (Safish Labour with a split of the vote)
Copeland (Lab-Tory marginal which shouldn't be). Probably safe Tory at the next election.
Richmond (Lib/Tory marginal)
Sleaford (Leavey safe Tory seat)

I expect the pattern will continue in Gorton (V safe Lab remain seat).

Gorton isn't as safe as the 2015 numbers imply. It was a 24,000 majority for Kaufman then but he only had a 6,700 majority in 2010 and 5,800 in 2005.

The Lib Dems will fancy their chances and I could easily see a Lab majority of just a tenth what it was at the last general election.

My main question is - Where can Labour do "Well" and by well I mean get a decent swing toward & win in a by-election ?

They last managed that at Tooting in mid-June.

Their problem in getting a swin towards them in a by-election is that the Lib Dems did so badly at the last election. They will win in Gorton - it's the sort of seat that doesn't instinctively and uniformly hate Jeremy Corbyn - but there will be a Lab-Lib swing. And this is generally true - the seats where Corbyn is least loathed are the seats where the Lib Dems did worst at the last election and where the Lib Dems would be expected to bounce back. Meanwhile, they might achieve a swing towards them in some of the least pro-May Conservative seats - outer London or inner home counties, perhaps - but they won't win there.

rkrkrk

AlastairMeeks said:

AlsoIndigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

We used to have students for that sort of thing.

Have Leavers considered resurrecting serfdom? The barons never used to have to put up with stuff like this.

Serfdom? Isn't that what Remainers want to continue to have from those Eastern European serfs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAikPyEyztI

Was this audience member an rcs stooge??

I don't have audio; what is she saying?

She's saying that in London immigrants are needed to serve coffee and sandwiches.

The considered Leaver position continues to be that the fruit should pick itself.

Only in your fantasy land where borders are slammed shut and drawbridges lifted, and no visa whatsoever issued for any purpose.

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

An example from US in 1960s...

Reducing immigrants increased mechanisation and led to changed consumer habits/choice of what to grow from products that are handpicked to those machines can get. Didn't change wages.

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21716055-least-it-didnt-when-america-tried-1960s-kicking-out-immigrants-doesnt-raise

williamglenn

Fishing said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.

You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?