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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Les Republicans. You’ve lost that lovin’ Fillon?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Les Republicans. You’ve lost that lovin’ Fillon?
Fillon puts final decision on his continuing running or not to Républicains party, according to his prepared speech.
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Your puns may be in contravention of the Geneva Convention.
Edited extra bit: vast yawning chasm between Baroin's back and lay prices on Betfair (36/85).
America, good luck for the next
threefour years. You're going to need it.@TSE, there's No Limit to your dodgy '90s music references.
Picking between Trump and Pence is like deciding whether you want to eat vomit or faeces.
Sorry to hear you are ill, get well soon.
https://twitter.com/Dbussereau/status/838396691585826816
https://twitter.com/Dbussereau/status/838398474412507136
@williamglenn Why do you say that?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/04/baguette-postbox-trend-taking-france-storm/
Most politicians lie, but its the way they tell'em...either leaves wiggle room or are very difficult to establish with 100% certainty it is a lie...but Trump just constantly makes absolute claims which are easy to check.
No president has ever left office due to impeachment (although Nixon would surely have done so if he hadn't resigned - technically that happened before being impeached, however).
According to Carl Bernstein many Republicans on the hill are very concerned about Trump's mental state.
I feel some sympathy for the envelope bunglers, but why the hell weren't they paying attention? Mind you, from what I've heard it sounds like the chap reading it saw something seemed wrong and handed it to the lady to read out, which is also dodgy.
Still not as stupid as the F1 qualifying at the start of last season.
They have that sinking Fillon
They should sing for their Juppe.
I agree that's she a much more unifying figure though.
Surely, if Trump doesn't survive the next four years, it will be Pence who gets to be POTUS. If it's not him then Paul Ryan (or whoever else is speaker of the house). The only way I see it being Ivanka is if she runs in the primaries and wins.
"Juppe, Juppe and away in my Beautiful Fillon"
As an example, I bet next year the envelopes and the cards inside will have much clearer descriptions of what the f they're for. But it's easier to blame the individuals ...
"I see a flamethrower, the flamethrower guy wins in a stick fight…
"The idea of the Master Wizard Hypothesis says there are some people in the world, living people, masters of persuasion, they’ve got a linguistic gift for influencing people. And they are using actual techniques.
"What I [see] in Trump is someone who was highly trained. A lot of the things that the media were reporting as sort of random insults and bluster and just Trump being Trump, looked to me like a lot of deep technique that I recognized from the fields of hypnosis and persuasion."
I believe that Adams was, in the last sentence, referring to Cialdini's seminal work on 'compliance professionals', his book the Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion . It has sat on my bookshelf for a while, but recent events have persuaded me to read it. I am beginning to think that Adams was onto something. Trump uses a lot of flamethrowers.
PS Important addition to the Adams quote:
"So his complete ignoring of facts are actually part of the persuasion because he doesn’t give you targets. He doesn’t give you details of his policies, usually. So he’s reducing the number of targets while making you feel good and focusing on the things he wants. So it’s not about facts, it’s about focus and attention."
Ivanka is an idea straight out of Don Brind fantasy land.
French stuff - if Juppe gets the gig, would we expect both Macron and Le Pen's odds to lengthen?
I seemed to remember that the claims in articles in the likes of the Guardian (and well as some more "out there publications", was NOT that they asked for and eventually were granted a wire tap on Donald Trump, but to snoop on certain parts of Trump Towers.
The suggestion was that they wanted to know more about interesting internet connections emanating from within Trump Towers to Russians contacts.
https://twitter.com/45jonnyboy/status/838352840393306113
Chimes with my experience....
That's obviously not faked. Look at the angle Obama's hanging at; it's impossible to fake that even with the best green-screens in Holywood ...
Artist said:
'It doesn't seem encouraging at all to me. Things were going OK for Corbyn in February 2016, if you look at the YouGov's during the last leadership contest, the released figures from Election Data so far don't show much of a drop at all. Corbyn would still win against a moderate by roughly 55/45, unbelievable. '
A Yougov poll of Labour members at the end of August 2016 showed 52% wanting to see him lead Labour into the next election. 41% did not. Today's poll has only 44% wanting him as leader at the election compared with 50% who do not. That represents a 9% swing against Corbyn in 6 months when Don't Knows are excluded.Pretty close to a tipping point I would think.
It would suggest that LR aren't taking the big decisions concerning who represents LR.
Whether Fillon stays in or withdraws, the question is what will happen to his support. Will it stay with the LR candidate, whether it's him or someone else, or might it leak in someone else's direction? If there's a classic "men in dark suits" stabbing, populism may win out.
Le Parisien quote someone at today's pro-Fillon demo:
"Si on retire Fillon, les gens voteront pour un petit candidat au premier tour, Dupont Aignan et Le Pen au deuxième tour", estime cette femme de 68 ans, pour qui "l'autorité judiciaire confisque la démocratie en empêchant Fillon de parler de son programme."
"If they pull Fillon out of the race, people will vote for a small candidate in the first round, Dupont-Aignan, and for Le Pen in the second Round", said this woman, 68, for whom "the judges are undermining democracy by preventing Fillon from speaking about his programme" (emphasis added)
I doubt that Dupont-Aignan will even need 10% in the polls to get into the TF1 TV debate on 20 March. 7-8% should be enough.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-39173159
Also, and in regard to Russia story it certainly isn't a sustainable strategy long-term. That story just keeps coming back, and no amount of diverting has really changed that. It certainly didn't help save Michael Flynn.
If Fillon does depart for Juppe, M. D-A will not doubt gain somewhat; but how much? 2% 3%?
I also suspect that M. D-A may split the French Eurosceptic vote. If Mme Le Pen loses 5 points to D-A, you could easily end up with a Macron-Juppe last two.
He's also personally popular and competes with Macron for the centre ground.
But right now (and I reserve the right to change my mind), I don't see how she doesn't lose by 20 points plus.
I'm green on her, but only a little. Juppe (relatively) a lot, and Macron quite a lot.
"Your practices are not different from the Nazi practices of the past," Mr Erdogan said.
Voters will be asked whether they back a new constitution, which would transform the country from a parliamentary republic to a presidential one.
That would give Mr Erdogan, as president, new powers over the budget, appointment of ministers and judges, and the power to dismiss parliament, among others.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39173296
Dictator....
But in some cases this means more work for human employees. Quartz points out that McDonalds doesn't plan to reduce its workforce after installing kiosks, and Panera Bread "has said that at some locations where it has ordering kiosks, it has actually increased human hours to help the kitchen keep up with the higher number of orders that come in through the more efficient ordering system."
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/03/05/0344244/more-fast-food-restaurants-are-now-automating
Anyhoo, the Beeboids have misreported certain details - trolling for outrage-clicks as per, perhaps? The top on the cover isn't seethrough:
I'd say Watson's problem is that she is positioning herself as an English version of Charlotte Church, burbling on about a kind of hectoring feminism that most people rejected some time ago.