politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Support for Corbyn is weakening among Labour members. Don’t as

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Support for Corbyn is weakening among Labour members. Don’t assume a Corbynite replaces him.

Those of you watching Peston yesterday will know that YouGov has a new poll of Labour members out courtesy of Ian Warren of Election Data. 1,096 Labour members were interviewed last week (27 Feb – 3 Mar) and here are some of the key numbers.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Excellent piece Keiran.

Oh and first.

*Innocent Face*

TheScreamingEagles

Sorry to go off topic, but this has major betting implications, if you've not already backed Sarkozy, Baroin, and Juppé then you should be.


https://twitter.com/Figarat/status/838712015623438336?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Morris_Dancer

FPT: Mr. Borough, 'fuel in the tank'.

Essexit

FPT

Bojabob said:

Essexit said:

The Labour Party selectorate isn't fixed in the way the national one is. As Corbyn stays in post, members who don't like him may defect or let their memberships lapse. Equally, there must be some nutty left-wingers out there who'd join Labour if they thought Corbyn was in trouble.

I expect to see him fight the next GE.

I think there might be more than a soupçon of wishful thinking for you there.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39154212
Membership already is falling as anti-democrats europhiles go elsewhere (or nowhere). The other bit is more of a theory, I'll grant you.

Off to lunch now. Got a new Zelda game to pick up!

kle4

Stay the course Jeremy, what do the people know, and you've still got plenty of support.

Pulpstar

What is really needed as Nabavi said on the previous thread was for the membership to be presented with an AV ballot of all the likely runners.

"If an election was held tommorow for Labour leadership, and the following were runners how would you mark your ballot

1 = 1st choice
2 = 2nd choice
---
10 = 10th choice
Mark down as many candidates as you wish"

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/838728846853701635

williamglenn

Essexit said:

FPT

Bojabob said:

Essexit said:

The Labour Party selectorate isn't fixed in the way the national one is. As Corbyn stays in post, members who don't like him may defect or let their memberships lapse. Equally, there must be some nutty left-wingers out there who'd join Labour if they thought Corbyn was in trouble.

I expect to see him fight the next GE.

I think there might be more than a soupçon of wishful thinking for you there.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39154212
Membership already is falling as anti-democrats europhiles go elsewhere (or nowhere). The other bit is more of a theory, I'll grant you.

'Going nowhere' was a good song by the Northern Irish band Therapy?, who will probably be going to stay in the EU as the UK falls apart.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

O/T reports of a large fire at Asda in Luton

rcs1000

NickPalmer said:

By the way, the other day someone asked whether Macron's non-party status means that he won't have candidate for Parliament if he wins (normally a newly-elected President calls Parliamentary elecitons at once to get a supportive majority). Do we know his intentions on that?

Yes, En Marche will have a full slate of candidates in every constituency.

Bojabob

williamglenn said:

Essexit said:

FPT

Bojabob said:

Essexit said:

The Labour Party selectorate isn't fixed in the way the national one is. As Corbyn stays in post, members who don't like him may defect or let their memberships lapse. Equally, there must be some nutty left-wingers out there who'd join Labour if they thought Corbyn was in trouble.

I expect to see him fight the next GE.

I think there might be more than a soupçon of wishful thinking for you there.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39154212
Membership already is falling as anti-democrats europhiles go elsewhere (or nowhere). The other bit is more of a theory, I'll grant you.

'Going nowhere' was a good song by the Northern Irish band Therapy?, who will probably be going to stay in the EU as the UK falls apart.

Talking of the end of the UK, I note that an independent Scotland by 2024 is now shorter than an, erm, dependent one. Has this crossover every previously occurred?

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-politics/scotland-to-vote-for-independence-by-end-of-2024

rcs1000

Essexit said:

FPT

Bojabob said:

Essexit said:

The Labour Party selectorate isn't fixed in the way the national one is. As Corbyn stays in post, members who don't like him may defect or let their memberships lapse. Equally, there must be some nutty left-wingers out there who'd join Labour if they thought Corbyn was in trouble.

I expect to see him fight the next GE.

I think there might be more than a soupçon of wishful thinking for you there.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39154212
Membership already is falling as anti-democrats europhiles go elsewhere (or nowhere). The other bit is more of a theory, I'll grant you.

Off to lunch now. Got a new Zelda game to pick up!

It's excellent; I have it on the Switch and love it.

rkrkrk

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sorry to go off topic, but this has major betting implications, if you've not already backed Sarkozy, Baroin, and Juppé then you should be.


https://twitter.com/Figarat/status/838712015623438336?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

I'm pondering laying Macron... Evens when he isn't all that certain to make second round could be too short...

Artist

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

SouthamObserver

Yep - that's just about spot on. Corbyn's loss of support in London is stunning; and that's where the largest concentration of the membership is. The PLP's wait and see strategy means a lit more short-term pain, but it is clearly the correct one to be following.

rcs1000

kle4 said:

What sort of chap is Macron, by the way? I've seen him usually referred to as a centrist, but the other day I saw a piece calling him a liberal. He's not a cypher on to which people are projecting what they want to believe is he?

I met Macron last January/February and posted my thoughts on him at the time. He's clearly a very bright pragmatist. I asked him about Brexit, and he basically said that it was the job of the French government to do the best for the French.

He's very aware of the failings of French state, and praised the Schroeder-Haartz reforms which freed up the German labour market at the start of the 2000s. He also recognises that the 35 hour work week and the early pension age are big problems for France.

I don't think he fits easily into any bucket. He's more reforming than a "steady as she goes" Cameron or Blair. But he's quite conciliatory in tone. I think he'd be a very tough guy to have sitting on the opposite side of the table in a negotiations.

But at least you'd know what he was looking for.

I'm not going to deny, I liked him.

Bojabob

rcs1000 said:

NickPalmer said:

By the way, the other day someone asked whether Macron's non-party status means that he won't have candidate for Parliament if he wins (normally a newly-elected President calls Parliamentary elecitons at once to get a supportive majority). Do we know his intentions on that?

Yes, En Marche will have a full slate of candidates in every constituency.

Hi Robert. That is impressive work by EM. How have they done it? Essentially has they simply shorn off the right flank of the PS?

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

NickPalmer said:

By the way, the other day someone asked whether Macron's non-party status means that he won't have candidate for Parliament if he wins (normally a newly-elected President calls Parliamentary elecitons at once to get a supportive majority). Do we know his intentions on that?

Yes, En Marche will have a full slate of candidates in every constituency.

If he wins the Presidency who knows what will happen to the PS. Several leading figures have come very close to openly supporting Macron, not least Hollande and Segolene Royal.

Bojabob

SouthamObserver said:

Yep - that's just about spot on. Corbyn's loss of support in London is stunning; and that's where the largest concentration of the membership is. The PLP's wait and see strategy means a lit more short-term pain, but it is clearly the correct one to be following.

Agreed.

Bojabob

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

"This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be"

That statement is clearly and demonstrably false. It is now a matter of timing.

rcs1000

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

NickPalmer said:

By the way, the other day someone asked whether Macron's non-party status means that he won't have candidate for Parliament if he wins (normally a newly-elected President calls Parliamentary elecitons at once to get a supportive majority). Do we know his intentions on that?

Yes, En Marche will have a full slate of candidates in every constituency.

If he wins the Presidency who knows what will happen to the PS. Several leading figures have come very close to openly supporting Macron, not least Hollande and Segolene Royal.

I would point out that more Socialist mayors have nominated Macron than Hamon.

SouthamObserver

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

72% - 61% - 54%

The trend is your friend.

BudG

FPT

Pulpstar said:

Your book (And thus your judgement) has been astoundingly good & green this election. I think you were right when you called me out when I said Baroin had next to no chance. I've changed my mind on that.

@Pulpstar . Thank you for the compliment. I generally try to think a little outside of the box when it comes to politcal betting. And this market has been a particularly good one to be thinking outside of the box on!

And sometimes I think outside of the box and fall flat on my face!!

rottenborough

Bojabob said:

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

"This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be"

That statement is clearly and demonstrably false. It is now a matter of timing.

One has to question the judgment of people who were besides themselves with joy over Corbyn and are now turning against him in large numbers (in London at least) only a few months later.

Seems to me this is evidence that the whole Jezza thing has been a crazy, dreaming summer romance, as I posted at the time.

Bojabob

rottenborough said:

Bojabob said:

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

"This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be"

That statement is clearly and demonstrably false. It is now a matter of timing.

One has to question the judgment of people who were besides themselves with joy over Corbyn and are now turning against him in large numbers (in London at least) only a few months later.

Seems to me this is evidence that the whole Jezza thing has been a crazy, dreaming summer romance, as I posted at the time.

My two Corbynite buddies have now both abandoned him. Straws in the wind...

Bojabob

SouthamObserver said:

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

72% - 61% - 54%

The trend is your friend.

Yes, it is indeed hard to see how such a drastic downward trend is good news for Corbyn. There is more than a whiff of wishful thinking around, I'd venture.

Pulpstar

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

SouthamObserver

rottenborough said:

Bojabob said:

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

"This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be"

That statement is clearly and demonstrably false. It is now a matter of timing.

One has to question the judgment of people who were besides themselves with joy over Corbyn and are now turning against him in large numbers (in London at least) only a few months later.

Seems to me this is evidence that the whole Jezza thing has been a crazy, dreaming summer romance, as I posted at the time.

rottenborough said:

Bojabob said:

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

"This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be"

That statement is clearly and demonstrably false. It is now a matter of timing.

One has to question the judgment of people who were besides themselves with joy over Corbyn and are now turning against him in large numbers (in London at least) only a few months later.

Seems to me this is evidence that the whole Jezza thing has been a crazy, dreaming summer romance, as I posted at the time.

Yep. And when he goes he will take a lot of the flakes with him.

TheScreamingEagles

@PolhomeEditor: 'Westminster wants to abolish Holyrood' shaping up to be #indyref2's hidden oil fields. What a time to be alive.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

Nah, it was like Newbury and Christchurch 1993.

Labour did shite in them and went on to win a landslide in 1997.

Artist

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

72% - 61% - 54%

The trend is your friend.

Yes, it is indeed hard to see how such a drastic downward trend is good news for Corbyn. There is more than a whiff of wishful thinking around, I'd venture.

The important question: how likely is it that you would vote for Jeremy Corbyn in a leadership contest.
June 2016: Total Vote 50% Total not vote 47%
February 2017: Total vote 52% Total not vote 46%

That's the trend.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

Nah, it was like Newbury and Christchurch 1993.

Labour did shite in them and went on to win a landslide in 1997.

Seat Lab increase Tory/Zac increase Lab/Tory swing

Newbury -4 -29 -12.5
Christchurch -9.4 -32.2 -11.4
Richmond -8.63 -13.05 -2.21

nielh

My thoughts:

1. Some of Corbyns supporters are fed up over Brexit and deserting him (and the party) accordingly.
2. Copeland might turn out to be a low water mark for Labour: it can't get much worse, they will probably win Gorton with ease, and the multiple problems facing May once Article 50 is triggered will give Corbyn some breathing room.
3. Many of the labour membership are still silent and invisible, never turning up to any meetings etc. They are not influenced by other more longstanding and active members.
4. Labour are fucked anyway because they have no coherant economic policy, this is true for both the left and right of the party. The literature is all simply about ending austerity and reversing cuts and spending more money on everything. It is not difficult for any thinking, intelligent person to see that it is all dishonest bullshit.

I think he will be around for a while.

david_herdson

Bojabob said:

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

"This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be"

That statement is clearly and demonstrably false. It is now a matter of timing.

Not just timing: timing, personnel and method.

Corbyn is leader as long as long as he wants, unless either (1) a clearly better candidate stands against him or (2) he chooses to stand down.

That second option might be of his own volition or it might be under pressure but if there's one thing that 2016 proved, it's that Corbyn doesn't play by the usual rules. So what are the options of a clearly better candidate standing against him; one who Labour could put forward as a PM-in-waiting? Given Labour's history, not great.

As Keiran says, "Labour’s future will belong to whoever has the guts to seize it" - *if* someone has the guts to seize it.

MyBurningEars

Pulpstar said:

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

Next election is far too soon, but thinking about the very long term, it really isn't inconceivable that places like the better-heeled, cosmopolitan parts of London could become LibDem strongholds. This is not a comment on Corbyn specifically - I just think Labour's voter coalition will be harder to keep together in a post-Brexit world, and a liberal resurgence in London seems more plausible than a populist uprising in the North (though neither should be ruled out and there is some possibility of both!).

Combine that with what has already come to pass in Scotland, and with the Welsh political map having lost that The Only Way is Red sheen it used to have, and whoever serves as Labour leader is going to have to fight on many fronts. At least one ball is likely to be dropped. On the grounds that it is least alike to the others, the London ball could well be the one.

JonathanD

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

What sort of chap is Macron, by the way? I've seen him usually referred to as a centrist, but the other day I saw a piece calling him a liberal. He's not a cypher on to which people are projecting what they want to believe is he?

I met Macron last January/February and posted my thoughts on him at the time. He's clearly a very bright pragmatist. I asked him about Brexit, and he basically said that it was the job of the French government to do the best for the French.

He's very aware of the failings of French state, and praised the Schroeder-Haartz reforms which freed up the German labour market at the start of the 2000s. He also recognises that the 35 hour work week and the early pension age are big problems for France.

I don't think he fits easily into any bucket. He's more reforming than a "steady as she goes" Cameron or Blair. But he's quite conciliatory in tone. I think he'd be a very tough guy to have sitting on the opposite side of the table in a negotiations.

But at least you'd know what he was looking for.

I'm not going to deny, I liked him.

George Osborne is a fan of Macron, which probably gives an idea of where is fits politically.

ThreeQuidder

NDA +861
Sarko +300
Baroin +210
Macron +73
Fillon +59
AN Other 0

Total staked £5.

Considering laying some Fillon for flexibility.

Pulpstar

@Myburningears Aye, whoever leads Labour has a hell of a battle on about 5 different fronts

Animal_pb

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

NickPalmer said:

By the way, the other day someone asked whether Macron's non-party status means that he won't have candidate for Parliament if he wins (normally a newly-elected President calls Parliamentary elecitons at once to get a supportive majority). Do we know his intentions on that?

Yes, En Marche will have a full slate of candidates in every constituency.

If he wins the Presidency who knows what will happen to the PS. Several leading figures have come very close to openly supporting Macron, not least Hollande and Segolene Royal.

I would point out that more Socialist mayors have nominated Macron than Hamon.

Isn't this going to leave Macron open to accusations that he is just a PS Trojan horse?

BudG

Sarkozy camp asks France's Fillon to replace himself as candidate

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-fillon-idUKKBN16D1EN?rpc=401&

Freggles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

Nah, it was like Newbury and Christchurch 1993.

Labour did shite in them and went on to win a landslide in 1997.

After the whole Red Liberals fiasco in 2015 I'm wary of attempts to slice up the electorate and move them between columns in that way.

You need a good leader and clear message, the rest is nice but secondary

rcs1000

MLP -1211
Sarkozy +1821
The Field +908 or more

PlatoSaid

The revelations re Podesta at the end of this re Russia are pretty amusing on the hypocrisy stakes

https://youtu.be/WHrcNKVt4Rw

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/838720989991223297

Richard_Nabavi

A good summary by Keiran of the poll findings.

Do we know who paid for this poll, and why? I wouldn't expect that Ian Warren paid for it out of his own pocket.

SouthamObserver

david_herdson said:

Bojabob said:

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

"This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be"

That statement is clearly and demonstrably false. It is now a matter of timing.

Not just timing: timing, personnel and method.

Corbyn is leader as long as long as he wants, unless either (1) a clearly better candidate stands against him or (2) he chooses to stand down.

That second option might be of his own volition or it might be under pressure but if there's one thing that 2016 proved, it's that Corbyn doesn't play by the usual rules. So what are the options of a clearly better candidate standing against him; one who Labour could put forward as a PM-in-waiting? Given Labour's history, not great.

As Keiran says, "Labour’s future will belong to whoever has the guts to seize it" - *if* someone has the guts to seize it.

There is a 3 - he is beaten in a leadership election. If the unions call for one, Corbyn's biggest selling point from the last contest, the PLP "coup" is removed; something that will give the green light to more credible figures than Owen Smith (who got close to 40% don't forget) to stand. That's why next year is a better bet for a change than this year.

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

MLP -1211
Sarkozy +1821
The Field +908 or more

Worth about £450 at the moment

justin124

The figures given by Keiran in relation to the Feb 2016 response to the question 'Do you think JC should or should not continue as Labour and fight the next election? ' do not appear to match those appearing on Ian Warren's Election Data link.
The figures there are shown as:

Should lead Labour at next election - 63%

Continue for time being but step down by GE -16%

Step down now - 15%

Don't Know - 6%

SimonStClare

Cheers Mr Pedley, an impressively well researched and informative thread. - Any idea who commissioned the Peston poll, ITV perhaps?

Charles

SouthamObserver said:

Yep - that's just about spot on. Corbyn's loss of support in London is stunning; and that's where the largest concentration of the membership is. The PLP's wait and see strategy means a lit more short-term pain, but it is clearly the correct one to be following.

Aren't you confusing "strategy" with "paralysis"?

AlastairMeeks

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

I think when the Brexit deal or lack thereof is announced, that might be the ideal time.

So 2018/19 seems likely as people point out Corbyn whipped Labour to approve the Article 50 notification bill.

Keiranpedley

justin124 said:

The figures given by Keiran in relation to the Feb 2016 response to the question 'Do you think JC should or should not continue as Labour and fight the next election? ' do not appear to match those appearing on Ian Warren's Election Data link.
The figures there are shown as:

Should lead Labour at next election - 63%

Continue for time being but step down by GE -16%

Step down now - 15%

Don't Know - 6%

Ah mine are from Aug. Will see if it can be updated

david_herdson

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

Bojabob said:

Artist said:

"From 72% support in February 2016 to 54% support now. From a majority wanting him to stay on until the next GE to a majority wanting him to go before the next GE. McDonnell's support is far too low for him to hope to win the leadership. It is absolutely clear that the membership is turning against Corbyn and the far left. In London - where Labour's membership is most concentrated - Corbyn has gone from +40 to -1 in a year.

The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "



February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.

June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

"This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be"

That statement is clearly and demonstrably false. It is now a matter of timing.

Not just timing: timing, personnel and method.

Corbyn is leader as long as long as he wants, unless either (1) a clearly better candidate stands against him or (2) he chooses to stand down.

That second option might be of his own volition or it might be under pressure but if there's one thing that 2016 proved, it's that Corbyn doesn't play by the usual rules. So what are the options of a clearly better candidate standing against him; one who Labour could put forward as a PM-in-waiting? Given Labour's history, not great.

As Keiran says, "Labour’s future will belong to whoever has the guts to seize it" - *if* someone has the guts to seize it.

There is a 3 - he is beaten in a leadership election. If the unions call for one, Corbyn's biggest selling point from the last contest, the PLP "coup" is removed; something that will give the green light to more credible figures than Owen Smith (who got close to 40% don't forget) to stand. That's why next year is a better bet for a change than this year.

I'd agree with your conclusion about next year being the better bet, but I think the scenario is essentially the same as the (1) above: if he is to be beaten by a better candidate then it must be in an election, and he's unlikely to be beaten unless there's a better candidate.

That said, I think there's still an immense psychological barrier that prevents Labour MPs from opposing the leader directly in a contest.

FF43

Unless they are stupid Labour members can see Corbyn isn't working but I don't think they have yet accepted the promise on which they elected him was faulty and that they need to rethink their strategy for the Party. A "progressive alliance" just isn't there to fall into their laps. They need to convince a sceptical public of the worth of Labour values and they are competing with the Conservatives for those votes.

Carolus_Rex

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

Wasn't that essentially what they did last year though?

Tissue_Price

rcs1000 said:

MLP -1211
Sarkozy +1821
The Field +908 or more

Having being utterly rescued by the Juppe crash I am now being greedy.

Emmanuel Macron +804
Marine Le Pen +311
Francois Fillon -365
Francois Baroin +10,085
Laurent Wauquiez +3,041
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan +3,921
Nicolas Sarkozy -177
Field -610

Essexit

Carolus_Rex said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

Wasn't that essentially what they did last year though?

Well they mixed in some stuff about competence (not a quality Owen Smith was overflowing with).

justin124

Keiranpedley said:

justin124 said:

The figures given by Keiran in relation to the Feb 2016 response to the question 'Do you think JC should or should not continue as Labour and fight the next election? ' do not appear to match those appearing on Ian Warren's Election Data link.
The figures there are shown as:

Should lead Labour at next election - 63%

Continue for time being but step down by GE -16%

Step down now - 15%

Don't Know - 6%

Ah mine are from Aug. Will see if it can be updated

Ok - but it implies a much bigger shift against Corbyn - in barely a year - than initially suggested!

Dixie

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

Essexit

rcs1000 said:

Essexit said:

FPT

Bojabob said:

Essexit said:

The Labour Party selectorate isn't fixed in the way the national one is. As Corbyn stays in post, members who don't like him may defect or let their memberships lapse. Equally, there must be some nutty left-wingers out there who'd join Labour if they thought Corbyn was in trouble.

I expect to see him fight the next GE.

I think there might be more than a soupçon of wishful thinking for you there.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39154212
Membership already is falling as anti-democrats europhiles go elsewhere (or nowhere). The other bit is more of a theory, I'll grant you.

Off to lunch now. Got a new Zelda game to pick up!

It's excellent; I have it on the Switch and love it.

Very excited to get home from work today.

Maybe I'm feeling a little peaky...

AlastairMeeks

Carolus_Rex said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

Wasn't that essentially what they did last year though?

In a bout of exceptional incompetence, they allowed it to be portrayed as the Parliamentary party against the membership. Unsurprisingly, the membership voted for the membership.

This poll shows that the membership are under no further illusions about the poor prospects under Jeremy Corbyn but still on balance want him to depart on his own terms.

williamglenn

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

They should make sure he gets put on the spot about Brexit putting Vauxhall's Luton plant at risk.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

MLP -1211
Sarkozy +1821
The Field +908 or more

Having being utterly rescued by the Juppe crash I am now being greedy.

Emmanuel Macron +804
Marine Le Pen +311
Francois Fillon -365
Francois Baroin +10,085
Laurent Wauquiez +3,041
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan +3,921
Nicolas Sarkozy -177
Field -610

Sarkozy is still available at 140 on Betfair.

I will always remember last Wednesday very fondly

Dixie

Pulpstar said:

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

Tory figures in London by-elections since 2015 GE are simply terrible. I can't see any upside for the blues, and no down side for the red peril. Hope I am wrong.

Alanbrooke

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

They should make sure he gets put on the spot about Brexit putting Vauxhall's Luton plant at risk.

I think you'll find it's the ease with which PSA can buy the facility and plan to close it because were in the EUis the problem

they have previous

Ryton didnt survive despite us being in the EU

Tissue_Price

Dixie said:

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

I would have Sadiq Khan as about a 5/2 favourite overall in the circumstance you describe - Corbyn making it to 2020, Khan standing down, Khan finding and winning a seat (not necessarily so easy).

If he was up against the other two he'd win handily. But there'll be at least one more left-wing contender too.

Essexit

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

Wasn't that essentially what they did last year though?

In a bout of exceptional incompetence, they allowed it to be portrayed as the Parliamentary party against the membership. Unsurprisingly, the membership voted for the membership.

This poll shows that the membership are under no further illusions about the poor prospects under Jeremy Corbyn but still on balance want him to depart on his own terms.

The alternative is portraying it as pro- or anti- triggering Article 50. A challenger representing the latter could beat Corbyn among the membership, but would alienate a lot of the country (not just Leavers). A rather Pyrrhic victory.

matt

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

They should make sure he gets put on the spot about Brexit putting Vauxhall's Luton plant at risk.

It's at risk because GM Europe consistently loses money and had to sell GMAC. Why do you think that Brexit is the reason?

Tissue_Price

What's our collective opinion on Marine Le Pen's price for winning the first round (1.56 - 1.60 on betfair)?

Richard_Nabavi

Tissue_Price said:

What's our collective opinion on Marine Le Pen's price for winning the first round (1.56 - 1.60 on betfair)?

In a forced choice, I'd be a backer rather than a layer at those odds, but they don't look too far out IMO.

ThreeQuidder

Dixie said:

Pulpstar said:

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

Tory figures in London by-elections since 2015 GE are simply terrible. I can't see any upside for the blues, and no down side for the red peril. Hope I am wrong.

There has only been Tooting, right? 7.3% wasn't terrible for an incumbent government, I wouldn't have thought?

MyBurningEars

Dixie said:

Pulpstar said:

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

Tory figures in London by-elections since 2015 GE are simply terrible. I can't see any upside for the blues, and no down side for the red peril. Hope I am wrong.

Before pulp edited his original post to add the last paragraph I had assumed he meant a LibDem resurgence (perhaps with some upside to the Tories) rather than a total Tory takeover!

williamglenn

matt said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

They should make sure he gets put on the spot about Brexit putting Vauxhall's Luton plant at risk.

It's at risk because GM Europe consistently loses money and had to sell GMAC. Why do you think that Brexit is the reason?

A typically presumptive comment from you. I suggested merely that Corbyn's opponents should put him on the spot about it. Now I know you're a modest man, but do you really think Jeremy Corbyn will be able to bat it away as easily as you?

Essexit

matt said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

They should make sure he gets put on the spot about Brexit putting Vauxhall's Luton plant at risk.

It's at risk because GM Europe consistently loses money and had to sell GMAC. Why do you think that Brexit is the reason?

Die-hard Remainers will blame anything and everything on Brexit.

Dixie

Tissue_Price said:

Dixie said:

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

I would have Sadiq Khan as about a 5/2 favourite overall in the circumstance you describe - Corbyn making it to 2020, Khan standing down, Khan finding and winning a seat (not necessarily so easy).

If he was up against the other two he'd win handily. But there'll be at least one more left-wing contender too.

He plays a good, "I am a left winger to lefties and right winger to righties." He will find a safe seat, no doubt; he's got great contacts in London. If Corbyn makes it to 2020, then Khan is very likely to do this. He will want to keep Corbyn in place until then. I think he is unbeatable.

williamglenn

Essexit said:

matt said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

They should make sure he gets put on the spot about Brexit putting Vauxhall's Luton plant at risk.

It's at risk because GM Europe consistently loses money and had to sell GMAC. Why do you think that Brexit is the reason?

Die-hard Remainers will blame anything and everything on Brexit.

Yes, and slow-witted know-it-alls will miss the point.

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

Essexit said:

FPT

Bojabob said:

Essexit said:

The Labour Party selectorate isn't fixed in the way the national one is. As Corbyn stays in post, members who don't like him may defect or let their memberships lapse. Equally, there must be some nutty left-wingers out there who'd join Labour if they thought Corbyn was in trouble.

I expect to see him fight the next GE.

I think there might be more than a soupçon of wishful thinking for you there.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39154212
Membership already is falling as anti-democrats europhiles go elsewhere (or nowhere). The other bit is more of a theory, I'll grant you.

Off to lunch now. Got a new Zelda game to pick up!

It's excellent; I have it on the Switch and love it.

I had the Switch. Played it for a weekend, left it in London.

Dixie

Dixie said:

Tissue_Price said:

Dixie said:

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

I would have Sadiq Khan as about a 5/2 favourite overall in the circumstance you describe - Corbyn making it to 2020, Khan standing down, Khan finding and winning a seat (not necessarily so easy).

If he was up against the other two he'd win handily. But there'll be at least one more left-wing contender too.

He plays a good, "I am a left winger to lefties and right winger to righties." He will find a safe seat, no doubt; he's got great contacts in London. If Corbyn makes it to 2020, then Khan is very likely to do this. He will want to keep Corbyn in place until then. I think he is unbeatable.

Tissue_Price said:

Dixie said:

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

I would have Sadiq Khan as about a 5/2 favourite overall in the circumstance you describe - Corbyn making it to 2020, Khan standing down, Khan finding and winning a seat (not necessarily so easy).

If he was up against the other two he'd win handily. But there'll be at least one more left-wing contender too.

and thank you for that. Very helpful.

Bojabob

Dixie said:

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

I don't doubt your intel, but Khan would be a huge loss to London. Another reason to get rid of Corbyn next year to avoid Sadiq having to stand down to save the party.

Essexit

williamglenn said:

Essexit said:

matt said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

They should make sure he gets put on the spot about Brexit putting Vauxhall's Luton plant at risk.

It's at risk because GM Europe consistently loses money and had to sell GMAC. Why do you think that Brexit is the reason?

Die-hard Remainers will blame anything and everything on Brexit.

Yes, and slow-witted know-it-alls will miss the point.

To be fair you blame rather a lot on Brexit - just my luck to pick up on it the one time you're being sarcastic

Tissue_Price

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/838729737816129536

Dixie

Bojabob said:

Dixie said:

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

I don't doubt your intel, but Khan would be a huge loss to London. Another reason to get rid of Corbyn next year to avoid Sadiq having to stand down to save the party.

depends on your view, though. I despise the man. He's just a good liar, not good Mayor IMHO. Tessa Jowell was about as left as I can go when it comes to the reds.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/838729737816129536

She's cutting it fine if she wants a May 4th general election, she'd has less than three weeks to prorogue/dissolve Parliament, even before we get to the FTPA.

justin124

Dixie said:

Pulpstar said:

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

Tory figures in London by-elections since 2015 GE are simply terrible. I can't see any upside for the blues, and no down side for the red peril. Hope I am wrong.

According to Yougov crossbreaks the Tories have a 16% lead in London now - equivalent to a 12.5% swing!

BudG

Tissue_Price said:

What's our collective opinion on Marine Le Pen's price for winning the first round (1.56 - 1.60 on betfair)?

It's a difficult one. Macron is pretty close on current polling and there may yet be a wild-card like Baroin thrown into the mix. Some of Le Pen's support has come form Fillon deserters. Will she hang on to that if there is a compromise reached with the Fillon situation that the Party can unite behind?

Seven weeks to go, given the uncertainties in this election so far, I would have to say she was a lay at that price at the moment. I would be a backer at 1.85

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/838729737816129536

She's cutting it fine if she wants a May 4th general election, she'd has less than three weeks to prorogue/dissolve Parliament, even before we get to the FTPA.

Agreed. It's a tragedy, of course, that we won't get all the Star Wars jokes or the once-in-a-lifetime "Vote 4 May on 4 May".

FrancisUrquhart

Barbra Streisand: Donald Trump is making me pile on the pounds

http://news.sky.com/story/barbra-streisand-donald-trump-is-making-me-pile-on-the-pounds-10792313

Tissue_Price

Dixie said:

Tissue_Price said:

Dixie said:

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

I would have Sadiq Khan as about a 5/2 favourite overall in the circumstance you describe - Corbyn making it to 2020, Khan standing down, Khan finding and winning a seat (not necessarily so easy).

If he was up against the other two he'd win handily. But there'll be at least one more left-wing contender too.

He plays a good, "I am a left winger to lefties and right winger to righties." He will find a safe seat, no doubt; he's got great contacts in London. If Corbyn makes it to 2020, then Khan is very likely to do this. He will want to keep Corbyn in place until then. I think he is unbeatable.

Why would Khan not prefer for someone else to play Kinnock to his Blair, while he wins a second term?

williamglenn

FrancisUrquhart said:

Barbra Streisand: Donald Trump is making me pile on the pounds

Cake news!

Bojabob

Essexit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Carolus_Rex said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

Wasn't that essentially what they did last year though?

In a bout of exceptional incompetence, they allowed it to be portrayed as the Parliamentary party against the membership. Unsurprisingly, the membership voted for the membership.

This poll shows that the membership are under no further illusions about the poor prospects under Jeremy Corbyn but still on balance want him to depart on his own terms.

The alternative is portraying it as pro- or anti- triggering Article 50. A challenger representing the latter could beat Corbyn among the membership, but would alienate a lot of the country (not just Leavers). A rather Pyrrhic victory.

It is almost impossible for any victory against Corbyn to be Pyrrhic, whatever the consequences.

Dixie

Tissue_Price said:

Dixie said:

Tissue_Price said:

Dixie said:

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

I would have Sadiq Khan as about a 5/2 favourite overall in the circumstance you describe - Corbyn making it to 2020, Khan standing down, Khan finding and winning a seat (not necessarily so easy).

If he was up against the other two he'd win handily. But there'll be at least one more left-wing contender too.

He plays a good, "I am a left winger to lefties and right winger to righties." He will find a safe seat, no doubt; he's got great contacts in London. If Corbyn makes it to 2020, then Khan is very likely to do this. He will want to keep Corbyn in place until then. I think he is unbeatable.

Why would Khan not prefer for someone else to play Kinnock to his Blair, while he wins a second term?

He wants to be Prime Minister. Mayor of London is about Police, Fire Brigade and Transport. Nothing else. And all 3 organisations have very powerful senior management. The Mayoralty is nothing like a Mayor in many big cities. Boris got bored. I'm told Khan is already bored too.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/838729737816129536

She's cutting it fine if she wants a May 4th general election, she'd has less than three weeks to prorogue/dissolve Parliament, even before we get to the FTPA.

Agreed. It's a tragedy, of course, that we won't get all the Star Wars jokes or the once-in-a-lifetime "Vote 4 May on 4 May".

Tell me about it, I had George Osborne set up to be Yoda or Obi Wan, gone into exile whilst the Dark Side has taken over.

justin124

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/838729737816129536

She's cutting it fine if she wants a May 4th general election, she'd has less than three weeks to prorogue/dissolve Parliament, even before we get to the FTPA.

Quite so. I think 27th March would be the latest date for such a Dissolution - though the Commons would need to have already authorised it . No sign of it - and Corbyn could effectively block it at this late stage.

OllyT

Essexit said:

matt said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn's opponents need a plausible cause on which to act, to convert that wish to see Jeremy Corbyn stand down into a vote against him in a leadership election. Given the membership's Europhilia, something Brexit-related looks like a good bet.

They should make sure he gets put on the spot about Brexit putting Vauxhall's Luton plant at risk.

It's at risk because GM Europe consistently loses money and had to sell GMAC. Why do you think that Brexit is the reason?

Die-hard Remainers will blame anything and everything on Brexit.

You mean like you guys used to blame everything on the EU? Boot firmly on the other foot from here on in.

Dixie

justin124 said:

Dixie said:

Pulpstar said:

Richmond Park was an exceptionally awful by-election for Labour. Less votes than members ffake !

I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !

Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?

Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..

Tory figures in London by-elections since 2015 GE are simply terrible. I can't see any upside for the blues, and no down side for the red peril. Hope I am wrong.

According to Yougov crossbreaks the Tories have a 16% lead in London now - equivalent to a 12.5% swing!

Christ. That's wonderful. This must be recent. Some senior tory chaps I met were talking about the blues winning back some London boroughs, but I took it with a pinch of salt. Thank you.

TheScreamingEagles

I wonder who the guilty party is this time

https://twitter.com/PoliticalPics/status/838722565497581568

Ishmael_Z

FrancisUrquhart said:

Barbra Streisand: Donald Trump is making me pile on the pounds

http://news.sky.com/story/barbra-streisand-donald-trump-is-making-me-pile-on-the-pounds-10792313

Going for a reverse Streisand effect whereby the more you blog about how fat you are the less people notice.

Dixie

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/838729737816129536

Every party leaks like a sieve, and none of that is leaking out. I've been wrong before!

Tissue_Price

Dixie said:

Tissue_Price said:

Dixie said:

Tissue_Price said:

Dixie said:

I have it on good authority from City Hall, that Sadiq Khan will serve only one term as London Mayor. In 2019, he will find a safe London seat and get elected. He will stand to be LOTO in 2020 after Labour's electoral defeat. His competition is likely to be Starmer and one of Balls or Cooper. if Jezza goes before 2020, then he may re-stand as Mayor. He is the best liar and will appeal to all current Labour voters.

Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?

I would have Sadiq Khan as about a 5/2 favourite overall in the circumstance you describe - Corbyn making it to 2020, Khan standing down, Khan finding and winning a seat (not necessarily so easy).

If he was up against the other two he'd win handily. But there'll be at least one more left-wing contender too.

He plays a good, "I am a left winger to lefties and right winger to righties." He will find a safe seat, no doubt; he's got great contacts in London. If Corbyn makes it to 2020, then Khan is very likely to do this. He will want to keep Corbyn in place until then. I think he is unbeatable.

Why would Khan not prefer for someone else to play Kinnock to his Blair, while he wins a second term?

He wants to be Prime Minister. Mayor of London is about Police, Fire Brigade and Transport. Nothing else. And all 3 organisations have very powerful senior management. The Mayoralty is nothing like a Mayor in many big cities. Boris got bored. I'm told Khan is already bored too.

If you want to be Prime Minister you don't want to start with 150 MPs.