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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Was this the reason for TMay’s election decision?

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I'm out the closet on Facebook now btw.



    Yellow bird on profile :)
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited April 2017
    Corbyn doesn't care about winning, it's all about the movement and his view getting Labour back to where he thinks it belongs.

    Union barons surely will oust him after the GE, but unless they get back to being a center/center left party again they won't win another election. Need a sneaky, very crafty, highly intelligent, charismatic potential leader to re-brand Blairism in another name (without people noticing) and take the party along with him/her. The electorate will vote for it.

    Corbyn goes and gets replaced with someone from the same brand of Labour it won't make no difference.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Essexit said:

    This is no general election, it’s a coup – MPs have a duty to stop Theresa May (says Guardian's lobby correspondence)

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/general-election-coup-mps-theresa-may

    Anne Perkins takes the Gold for Mental Gymnastics.
    What a lot of words for - 'I'm frit'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm out the closet on Facebook now btw.

    Yellow bird on profile :)

    Perhaps that's what Donald Tusk was alluding to. Theresa May as Tippi Hedren being attacked by yellow Lib Dem birds.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548
    When Labour suffer a mauling on May 4th and June 8th, can we really be sure that Corbyn will go?

    Might he try to stay on? I can't see it, but he's proved rather hard to shift so far.
  • Will Corbyn stand down before the McDonell amendment has been voted on at Conference? Seems doubtful to me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Love that campaign bus image.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
    Makes you wonder if it was sounded out. Maybe the Tories got wind of Corbyn being deeply unhappy in the role, but not being prepared to stand down until after an election. The alacrity with which Corbyn said - "fine - bring it on!" suggests he may have had some forewarning...
    I think what changed was that Mrs May decided it was a risk worth taking, not that the fundamentals had changed. I do genuinely think she changed her mind rather just biding her time.

    I think she has realised just how tough the Brexit deal is: (a) going to be to do; (2) to sell to the swivel-eyed right. She has to have her own mandate.

    Yes. As I said, you should be genuinely cheered by this. TMay is saving Labour. A crushing defeat of Corbyn will mean the end of the Hard Left for a generation. Meanwhile, TMay will have space to engineer the softish Brexit she clearly wants, and a much stronger mandate overall - both Brexity and otherwise.

    The country will regain a proper, much-needed Opposition. The SNP will lose a few seats.

    And FFS get Ed Balls in to the Commons, and make him your leader. You could win in 2022.

    Today is a good day for UK politics. And fun for us geeks, too.
    Hopefully not only will Corbyn get stuffed and go, but hopefully Labour will be able to squish the Maomentum nutters before they get embedded within the powerbase of Labour and means that they don't become the party of Corbynistas for the foreseeable future.

    The concern is that Corbyn is simply replaced by McMao or Clive Lewis.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Artist said:

    Forgot about Carswell, he's screwed unless he can beg for the Tory nomination.

    Why shouldn't he have the Con nomination?
    He is not a member , maybe ?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    When Labour suffer a mauling on May 4th and June 8th, can we really be sure that Corbyn will go?

    Might he try to stay on? I can't see it, but he's proved rather hard to shift so far.


    If he doesn't go he will literally destroy the Labour party.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    FF43 said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
    No, if Corbyn the Clown had refused to play ball. Moron !
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963

    When Labour suffer a mauling on May 4th and June 8th, can we really be sure that Corbyn will go?

    Might he try to stay on? I can't see it, but he's proved rather hard to shift so far.

    The horror story for Labour is them taking a horror-show battering in a couple of weeks - only to have Corbyn pop up and do it all over again to them in June. "What part of Fuck Off Corbyn don't you get?" say the voters...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096

    So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.

    Good news for the Lib Dems down west.


    According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.

    A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....

    Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
    The nationally posted locally received direct mail was probably more effective. I have lost track of where that issue sits in the investigations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    When Labour suffer a mauling on May 4th and June 8th, can we really be sure that Corbyn will go?

    Might he try to stay on? I can't see it, but he's proved rather hard to shift so far.

    The horror story for Labour is them taking a horror-show battering in a couple of weeks - only to have Corbyn pop up and do it all over again to them in June. "What part of Fuck Off Corbyn don't you get?" say the voters...
    He might increase his majority in Islington.

    A mandate from the voters...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963
    I am surprised we haven't had Sunil pop up with his take on the election:

    Tories 52%
    Losers 48%

    Big question - will Sunil stick with Labour this year?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017
    AndyJS said:

    New poll from ICM:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 1h1 hour ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (+1)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    UKIP: 11% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via ICM / 14 - 17 Apr)"

    Worse than 1983. The opposition vote was split two ways then. Labour should do a "soft Brexit" deal with the Lib Dems. But Moron won't do it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
    Will Jeremy Corbyn think that anything as incidental as an election defeat is a ground for resignation?
    Funny you should mention that.......

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/even-crushing-election-defeat-might-not-spell-end-jeremy-corbyn/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    IanB2 said:

    So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.

    Good news for the Lib Dems down west.


    According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.

    A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....

    Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
    The nationally posted locally received direct mail was probably more effective. I have lost track of where that issue sits in the investigations.
    Was it not claimed by Crosby and Co that the targeted Facebook ads were also hugely effective.
  • What's going to happen in Rochdale? Simon Danczuk is suspended.

    Also what about those two? whipless SNP MPs?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    I am surprised we haven't had Sunil pop up with his take on the election:

    Tories 52%
    Losers 48%

    Big question - will Sunil stick with Labour this year?

    Wes might have a better chance than some notionally larger majorities. Like Huppert did at GE2015...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    What's going to happen in Rochdale? Simon Danczuk is suspended.

    Also what about those two? whipless SNP MPs?

    Is Ken allowed to help with the campaign while he is appealing?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548
    So everyone, what will be the gaffe of the campaign?

    May walking out of No. 10 with her skirt hitched up at the back? Corbyn having a policy of bringing Venezuela's success to the UK? Farron deciding the Lib Dems are for Brexit? Nicola deciding to take Malc on as chief spokesman? :)

    It'll be hard to beat the Ed Stone from two years ago ...
  • A general election works for everyone. A fat Tory majority allows May to dismiss her nutters and not be press ganged into hard Brexit. And it removes that wazzock Jezbollah from LOTO so that we actually have someone holding her feet to the fire as it is negotiated.

    Labour's impending demolition removes all the agony of arguing over Entryists and Momentum, and delegates to conference to fight the McDonnell amentment, and whether its permissible to talk to Tory deviants like Labour, LibDem, SNP etc MPs about a progressive alliance.

    Instead he goes, the cretins surrounding him goes, we elect a unity candidate like Ed Balls or Kier Starmer and 200k useless bedblockers go, and we get back to being a political party again. Yes the penalty is that the Tories will have fat majority to wreck lives with but thanks to Jez they can do that anyway.

    Q - if you are Burham or Rotheram, looking at the local mayoral polling, do you seek reelection to Westminster just in case, the Lieberman gambit?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    So everyone, what will be the gaffe of the campaign?

    May walking out of No. 10 with her skirt hitched up at the back? Corbyn having a policy of bringing Venezuela's success to the UK? Farron deciding the Lib Dems are for Brexit? Nicola deciding to take Malc on as chief spokesman? :)

    It'll be hard to beat the Ed Stone from two years ago ...

    I am sure Jezza will give it a bloody good go.
  • Off topic, but what cabinet reshuffle will May undertaken when she wins?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096

    I am surprised we haven't had Sunil pop up with his take on the election:

    Tories 52%
    Losers 48%

    Big question - will Sunil stick with Labour this year?

    Squeaky bum time for his MP, with his ultra slim majority and no boundary-changed safer seat to run to.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891



    Looking ahead and on the bright side.

    1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.

    2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit

    3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades

    4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do

    5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Except there's a provision to review the FTPA before then.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Do we think that if May wins a big majority that the FTA will remain in place or will it get swept away with the great repeal?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017

    So everyone, what will be the gaffe of the campaign?

    The press conference in Downing St at 11am this morning? :D:D

    It depends on tomorrows vote
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Animal_pb said:

    It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 20232022, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...

    I would have thought they'd want to use the momentum (if you'll pardon the phrase) of a crushing loss to mount a probably unbeatable challenge as soon as possible, if Corbyn doesn't step down voluntarily. Perversely, though, that might mean they wind up with a weaker successor than might otherwise be the case. Another Owen Smith might well be terminal for a Labour Party on ~150 seats.
    BIB: Well, exactly. The idea that after getting decimated, there won't be an immediate challenge to Corbyn's leadership seems to me a rather odd conclusion.

    Balls.

    Not a rude comment, just a possible answer. Desperate times ... desperate measures?

    I don't entirely trust him but do I trust a vicar's daughter who turns out after 9 months to be as devious as her predecessor?
    Balls isn't even an MP so I don't see how he can stand for the leadership. I also don't see him wanting to stand in this GE.
  • On the boundary review, it doesn't look like this will be interrupted. The law says:

    The four boundary commissions of the United Kingdom are to conduct constituency reviews before 1 October 2013 and before 1 October of every subsequent fifth year.

    There wouldn't be time to start the whole process again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    SeanT said:

    A general election works for everyone. A fat Tory majority allows May to dismiss her nutters and not be press ganged into hard Brexit. And it removes that wazzock Jezbollah from LOTO so that we actually have someone holding her feet to the fire as it is negotiated.

    Labour's impending demolition removes all the agony of arguing over Entryists and Momentum, and delegates to conference to fight the McDonnell amentment, and whether its permissible to talk to Tory deviants like Labour, LibDem, SNP etc MPs about a progressive alliance.

    Instead he goes, the cretins surrounding him goes, we elect a unity candidate like Ed Balls or Kier Starmer and 200k useless bedblockers go, and we get back to being a political party again. Yes the penalty is that the Tories will have fat majority to wreck lives with but thanks to Jez they can do that anyway.

    Q - if you are Burham or Rotheram, looking at the local mayoral polling, do you seek reelection to Westminster just in case, the Lieberman gambit?

    A rare moment of PB unity! We are all happy! (apart from williamglenn, obv)
    I bet even Timmykins is popping an expensive bottle of plonk !!!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,406
    Excellent. Only four years to wait for a Labour PM, rather than eight if May hadn't called an early GE.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548
    On another point, what is the state of the parties' finances? Will they be able to finance a GE battle (e.g. to the 2015 level)?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    SeanT said:

    If he doesn't go, MPs will challenge him, and he will be toppled. Corbyn knows this. He will go.

    His MP's have already had a darn good go and he simply ignored them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    I am going to claim predictive insight. I can't find the exact comment, but I definitely claimed back in October called out the end March timing of A50 was very suspicious.

    If politician says that they are definitely not going to do something, you can discount it utterly. I cite Gove.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I reckon turnout will be low except in Scotland.

    https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854290333173153796

    Low turnout must surely help Tories.
  • General elections give me the horn.

    There I said it and I'm proud to say it.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2017
    Are we sure the Great British Public are going to be sanguine about Mrs May's blatant game-playing?

    https://twitter.com/jonkay01/status/854300093142511621
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:




    Looking ahead and on the bright side.

    1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.

    2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit

    3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades

    4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do

    5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.

    Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
    Agreed! We've done Milliband. An opposition led by Balls could be formidable.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Holy crap what have I missed!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
    You came back early ? Fitalass was doing a fine job in your absence.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:




    Looking ahead and on the bright side.

    1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.

    2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit

    3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades

    4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do

    5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.

    Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
    Agreed! We've done Milliband. An opposition led by Balls could be formidable.

    Do you think he could dance his way into No.10 ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:




    Looking ahead and on the bright side.

    1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.

    2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit

    3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades

    4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do

    5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.

    Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
    Agreed! We've done Milliband. An opposition led by Balls could be formidable.
    You do realise he very nearly lost his seat in 2010, then lost it in 2015. That was bloody impressive going for somebody so popular.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2017
    Also, I can't believe that so many want Ed Balls to be Labour leader (for reasons that they think he'll genuinely be a good leader). I remember years ago he was seen as utterly toxic by many on here and Yvette Cooper was seen as far more electable than him. Personally, I'd like Keir Starmer to be the next Labour leader.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:




    Looking ahead and on the bright side.

    1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.

    2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit

    3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades

    4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do

    5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.

    Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
    Indeed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    tpfkar said:

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes I think that is right.

    I've felt for some time that the political landscape is too different from 2015 for that mandate to be effective, so good for the country I think.
    What is May's platform other than more power for herself? It will be a Brexit election and she will have to effectively refight the referendum campaign as a Brexiteer.
    Here's your chance to stop Brexit. Work hard every night, and who knows, the Lib Dems might win the election?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    I see the usual 'progressive alliance' calls are going up.

    Good luck with that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    RobD said:

    Holy crap what have I missed!

    Nothing exciting. We had a long discussion about the minute of long term leasing agreements held by EU institutions located in the UK.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    and not just because I stand to win over £100 on Balls.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,406

    If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.

    100,000 Tory entryists paying their £35 or whatever it is next time could keep Jezza in post.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    SeanT said:

    If he doesn't go, MPs will challenge him, and he will be toppled. Corbyn knows this. He will go.

    His MP's have already had a darn good go and he simply ignored them.
    Then the party will definitely break up. I am giving Labour time until end of June.
  • RobD said:

    Holy crap what have I missed!

    Serves you right for going to bed early.

    We need you airborne on June 8th.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    On another point, what is the state of the parties' finances? Will they be able to finance a GE battle (e.g. to the 2015 level)?

    Labour and Lib Dems healthy
    UKIP bankrupt
    Conservatives poor but will have no problem raising the necessary finances to fight a strong campaign
  • What will happen with the coming by-election?

    Wikipedia says by-elections have been cancelled in similar circumstances before, but not since 1924 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Countermanded_Poll
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 886
    Will David Miliband stand??
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I have to give props to Dianne Abbott, the crap she is managing to spout of BBC News now while getting a straight face is mighty impressive.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Off topic: I know everyone has forgotten about it by now but any idea why the Turkish Referendum is still "in play" on Betfair?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2017

    If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.

    100,000 Tory entryists paying their £35 or whatever it is next time could keep Jezza in post.
    I don't see that happening (re as many as 100,000 Tories voting in Labour's leadership). It wasn't even Tory entryists which kept Corbyn in his post the last two times - it was his supporters who genuinely think he's Britain's Bernie Sanders (which he is not).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Off topic: I know everyone has forgotten about it by now but any idea why the Turkish Referendum is still "in play" on Betfair?

    Its been challenged by the opposition parties?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:




    Looking ahead and on the bright side.

    1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.

    2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit

    3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades

    4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do

    5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.

    Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
    Agreed! We've done Milliband. An opposition led by Balls could be formidable.

    Do you think he could dance his way into No.10 ?
    Sorry. Briefly off message. Clearly the opportunity will not arise because Jeremy Corbyn will be Prime Minister on June 10. But I welcome Balls back in the Commons.
  • What's going to happen in Rochdale? Simon Danczuk is suspended.

    Also what about those two? whipless SNP MPs?

    Doubt the SNP will allow either to stand, tbh. Edin West is a potential loss to the Lib Dems, so too risky to allow Michelle Thomson back.

    Can't see the Rochdale Labour SLP welcoming Danczuk either, if the Lib Dems are going to come back anywhere, its in seats like this. What's Paul Rowen doing these days?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,406
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    New poll from ICM:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 1h1 hour ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (+1)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    UKIP: 11% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via ICM / 14 - 17 Apr)"

    Worse than 1983. The opposition vote was split two ways then. Labour should do a "soft Brexit" deal with the Lib Dems. But Moron won't do it.
    Baxtered, that ICM poll gives a Tory majority of 138.

    Some of the Labour victims are:

    Gisela Stuart
    Ben Bradshaw
    Wes Streeting
    Sadiq Khan
    Tulip Siddiq
    Labour loses the London mayoralty on that result? Shocker!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    I see the usual 'progressive alliance' calls are going up.

    Good luck with that.

    Some smug SNP prat on the BBC earlier saying 'sorry we can't stand in England, too, folks."

    Yeah, Sturgeon would go down a treat in Maidenhead wouldn't she?

    Twit.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Prof Curtis....saying very hard for Tory to get a big majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    What will happen with the coming by-election?

    Wikipedia says by-elections have been cancelled in similar circumstances before, but not since 1924 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Countermanded_Poll

    I don't care what happens or who wins. I just need it to go ahead as an official by-election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Holy crap what have I missed!

    Serves you right for going to bed early.

    We need you airborne on June 8th.
    :o:D

    So much for the FTPA :p
  • It will be a strange election. We already know the result, its what happens afterwards that is the interesting bit.

    I've lost most of today work wise as its all been election speculation then gibber then planning. As I posted in the last thread wheels are already turning about immediate next steps (such as a CLP leaflet I've started sketching out with a colleague), I can see how we select a candidate, get the troops gathered, pull of our generally excellent canvas data and get out knocking on doors.

    Thats where the plan stops. "Vote Labour on 8th June. Put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. In these uncertain times of Brexit and war drums in Korea and economic uncertainty for so many, the man you really want leading this nation through it all is Jeremy Corbyn".

    Nope, can't even type it without giggling.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    Also, I can't believe that so many want Ed Balls to be Labour leader (for reasons that they think he'll genuinely be a good leader). I remember years ago he was seen as utterly toxic by many on here and Yvette Cooper was seen as far more electable than him. Personally, I'd like Keir Starmer to be the next Labour leader.

    Ed Balls has had a similar journey to several prominent politicians once they lose (another example being Portillo). They're widely derided and laughed at as politicians, but once out of office go on to being, if not loved, liked.

    It's almost as though the public get to see that they're (relatively) normal people.

    Having said that, if Balls went back into politics the public's feelings would soon swing back the other way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Prof Curtis....saying very hard for Tory to get a big majority.

    Eh ?

    He thinks it is hard for Tories to get a big maj ?

    I'd have thought the opposite.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    New poll from ICM:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 1h1 hour ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (+1)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    UKIP: 11% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via ICM / 14 - 17 Apr)"

    Worse than 1983. The opposition vote was split two ways then. Labour should do a "soft Brexit" deal with the Lib Dems. But Moron won't do it.
    Baxtered, that ICM poll gives a Tory majority of 138.

    Some of the Labour victims are:

    Gisela Stuart
    Ben Bradshaw
    Wes Streeting
    Sadiq Khan
    Tulip Siddiq
    You will find Sadiq Khan is not an MP. Gisela Stuart is a Tory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:




    Looking ahead and on the bright side.

    1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.

    2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit

    3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades

    4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do

    5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.

    Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
    Agreed! We've done Milliband. An opposition led by Balls could be formidable.
    He's smart. He's proved he's likeable. He would indeed by a formidable leader. Does Labour have the wits to persuade him into a seat, and into the job?

    Will their stupid membership see sense?
    He was likeable on a dancing show....He was very unpopular doing his day job. Christine Hamilton was popular on reality tv shows....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    New poll from ICM:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 1h1 hour ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (+1)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    UKIP: 11% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via ICM / 14 - 17 Apr)"

    Worse than 1983. The opposition vote was split two ways then. Labour should do a "soft Brexit" deal with the Lib Dems. But Moron won't do it.
    I'd fancy the Tories' chances of going deep into Labour Leave territory if they did that. And it'd also bugger up the LDs Ultra-Remain mantle.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.

    Well that didn't work in 2015...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    surbiton said:

    Artist said:

    Forgot about Carswell, he's screwed unless he can beg for the Tory nomination.

    Why shouldn't he have the Con nomination?
    He is not a member , maybe ?
    That could be rectified in a matter of seconds.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?

    I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    Also, I can't believe that so many want Ed Balls to be Labour leader (for reasons that they think he'll genuinely be a good leader). I remember years ago he was seen as utterly toxic by many on here and Yvette Cooper was seen as far more electable than him. Personally, I'd like Keir Starmer to be the next Labour leader.

    You can bet that CCHQ have a thick dossier full of his screw ups at the DPP ready to throw at him if and when that happens.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    What will happen with the coming by-election?

    Wikipedia says by-elections have been cancelled in similar circumstances before, but not since 1924 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Countermanded_Poll

    Darlington 1983. Ossie O'Brian. Who can forget that ?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."

    A sentiment that is bound to grow.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Prof Curtis....saying very hard for Tory to get a big majority.

    Eh ?

    He thinks it is hard for Tories to get a big maj ?

    I'd have thought the opposite.
    Big as in 179 Blair in 1997.

    More closer to Thatcher in 1987 which was 101
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Well, well, we seem to have had a shock to the PB system - nobody seems to have seen this one coming. I thought TSE's head might explode; after all he has been bangibng on for months about Mrs. May not having her own mandate and here she is asking for one. No matter.

    I note nobody is yet raising the question as to whether the Conservatives will be returned with an increased majority. Isn't that rather a key point? Someone, and I am sorry I can't remember who, posted on here yesterday that it would take a swing to Labour of less than 1% from 2015 to wipe out the Conservative majority.

    Will the Conservatives actually win? Herself, when I broke the news of the election to her earlier today, thought for a moment and then said, "Good, she is right to do it" and Herself has called every election correctly since 1983. However, she may not be infallible, there is a campaign ahead and things might change.

    Faites vos jeux, mesdames et Messieurs, faites vos jeux.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Pulpstar said:

    Prof Curtis....saying very hard for Tory to get a big majority.

    Eh ?

    He thinks it is hard for Tories to get a big maj ?

    I'd have thought the opposite.
    Big as in 179 Blair in 1997.

    More closer to Thatcher in 1987 which was 101
    He was talking about it being in his opinion very hard for Tories to get anything like a 100 majority.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Remember Richmond Park. Some of the leafy posho bits of England that have voted Tory may switch to cuddly hummus-loving LD europhiles this time.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    I see the usual 'progressive alliance' calls are going up.

    Good luck with that.

    Some smug SNP prat on the BBC earlier saying 'sorry we can't stand in England, too, folks."

    Yeah, Sturgeon would go down a treat in Maidenhead wouldn't she?

    Twit.

    Nauseating self-satisfaction is a bad sign in politics. The Nats are due.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Y0kel said:

    Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?

    I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.

    There is a list of 50 here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."

    A sentiment that is bound to grow.

    https://twitter.com/jonkay01/status/854300093142511621
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."

    A sentiment that is bound to grow.

    She is a lying b**ch.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    surbiton said:

    John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."

    A sentiment that is bound to grow.

    She is a lying b**ch.
    Charming!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    surbiton said:

    John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."

    A sentiment that is bound to grow.

    She is a lying b**ch.
    Bit harsh on John Curtice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Y0kel said:

    Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?

    I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.

    Chester
    Halifax
    Newcastle (Under Lyne)
    Ilford North
    Barrow
    Wirral West
    Wolve SW
    Dewsbury
    Enfield North
    Hapmstead
    Derbyshire NE
    Lancaster & Fleetwood
    Bridgend
    Middlesborugh South Cleveland East
    Wakefield
    Wrexham
    Brum Northfield
    Eltham
    Gedling
    Copeland
    Clwyd South
    Coventry Couth
    Southampton Test
    Delyn
    Darlington
    Blackpool South
    Scunthorpe
    Bishop Auckland
    Chorley

    Starter for 30.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."

    A sentiment that is bound to grow.

    Not really. The opposition won't be able to make anything of it unless they oppose the government tomorrow, which apparently they aren't going to do, and unless the opposition remind them, the public won't notice.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited April 2017

    Well, well, we seem to have had a shock to the PB system - nobody seems to have seen this one coming. I thought TSE's head might explode; after all he has been bangibng on for months about Mrs. May not having her own mandate and here she is asking for one. No matter.

    I note nobody is yet raising the question as to whether the Conservatives will be returned with an increased majority. Isn't that rather a key point? Someone, and I am sorry I can't remember who, posted on here yesterday that it would take a swing to Labour of less than 1% from 2015 to wipe out the Conservative majority.

    Will the Conservatives actually win? Herself, when I broke the news of the election to her earlier today, thought for a moment and then said, "Good, she is right to do it" and Herself has called every election correctly since 1983. However, she may not be infallible, there is a campaign ahead and things might change.

    Faites vos jeux, mesdames et Messieurs, faites vos jeux.

    I called this in October. ;-)
    Ironically Corbyn must also have wind of it. The policy stuff on reflection is very well timed.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Artist said:

    Forgot about Carswell, he's screwed unless he can beg for the Tory nomination.

    Why shouldn't he have the Con nomination?
    He is not a member , maybe ?
    That could be rectified in a matter of seconds.
    Oh, I see. You have no procedures. Will everyone at Clacton Tory Association just accept it ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    I'm almost disappointed we won't find out of Corbyn becomes interim PM in the event of a no confidence vote.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."

    A sentiment that is bound to grow.

    Probably... But on 8th June it will still come down to whether people want Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn to be PM... And they will vote accordingly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    On another point, what is the state of the parties' finances? Will they be able to finance a GE battle (e.g. to the 2015 level)?

    Labour and Lib Dems healthy
    UKIP bankrupt
    Conservatives poor but will have no problem raising the necessary finances to fight a strong campaign
    Thanks. I'm surprised by that. I thought that Labour's finances were poorish, and the Conservatives' were good. But I'll bow to superior knowledge.
This discussion has been closed.