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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 looks such a certainty that it could end up like GE2001
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 looks such a certainty that it could end up like GE2001 – boring with a low turnout
Many of the Labour MPs who will be voting for a general election this afternoon will be doing so in the pretty certain knowledge that they are ending their political careers earlier than planned.
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Surprised no ones photoshopped May as a Dalek.
Boring and predictable will not motivate the electorate to turn out in great numbers as seen with Brexit. 60-65% turnout has become the norm for an average general election, so unless a black swan appears on the scene, I’d expect the lower end.
The one good thing in all this is that it is happening three years earlier than expected. That means there is now slightly more of a chance that I will live to see another Labour government; or, failing that, the creation of a new centre-left party that can seriously challenge for power.
I continue to be hugely grateful that I was born when I was.
you do this every election. You wobble like SeanT in a referendum and then vote Labour anyway.
I'm sure I will go to the polling booth but I have no idea who, if anyone, I will vote for.
So, anyway, on to more important matters: the next Labour leader.
First of all, it has to be someone with a rock-safe seat. That lets out the egregious Cat Smith, also Clive Lewis and despite earlier posts very probably Jess Philips too (heck, even Yvette Cooper doesn't look totally safe).
It has to be someone who can pass for sane. That lets out Abbott, Macdonnell, Burgon, Rayner, Long-Bailey and Thornberry.
It has to be someone in Parliament. That lets out Burnham and Khan.
It has to be someone who can't be blamed for the defeat. That lets out Trickett.
It has to be someone acceptable to the left. That lets out almost every other plausible candidate including Benn, Watson and Creasy.
Two obvious front runners are left. Starmer is favourite with the bookies. However, there is rumoured to be some bad stuff about his disastrous time as DPP which somebody as ruthless as May will undoubtedly use. Moreover as a posh London lawyer he's completely out of touch with the voters Labour need to reach.
Which leaves the other one. Jon Ashworth meets all the criteria above. Also, if the Labour campaign is to be on the NHS - and it has to be because that's the one topic Labour agrees on and has a realistic angle of attack on - he will get a lot of airtime. He is also, along with Starmer, a rare example of an effective shadow Minister. Moreover, he doesn't carry much baggage.
At the moment he's 80/1. Those odds seem insane to me. 3/1 would be more like it. DYOR but I'd say he's value.
Now the Tory lead with over 65s, that was chilling - so much more then last time, when it was already high. That and the higher turnout from the old are the on,y reason I am not wholly certain of my 60-80 majority prediction.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/32658907/election-2015-mp-thanks-voter-for-penis-ballot-paper-mark
I'd say that realistically any Labour MP who gets back into the Commons by whatever margin probably has a safe seat or an immensely strong personal vote.
I'd agree with your second point but we don't know who's going to survive yet. In a northern working class seat with a large UKIP vote to squeeze she might just be a shock victim.
Creagh incidentally looks like toast in Wakefield and good riddance to bad rubbish.
I think Leicester South is pretty safe, but it did go Tory in 1983.
A significant number will not vote. A more important number will support the Tories. This is what has driven them to the low to middle 40s. Others will splinter and everyone will get a share, even the Lib Dems in their re-found NOTA mode. But the Tories will gain the most and I suspect in some areas the Lib Dems will be chasing a moving target that remains beyond their reach as a result.
UKIP won votes for many reasons; but far more for policy than not being the Libs.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotlands-key-battlegrounds-2017-general-10251668
Interestingly despite the ridicule I got for pointing out the SNP will be gunning for Carmichael, they also tip Orkney as vulnerable and for the same reason.
But no Labour candidate ought to be 3-1. I think Starmer was ok yesterday at 7-1 (And I had a betting hole there), but 3-1 would be too short for even him I think.
I've just had a pint's worth on him.
I can't see huge numbers of Labour MPs who come into that category keeping quiet for the next six weeks. I think there will be a massive amount of pressure on Corbyn to get out. I think the warfare will be open and bloody and if it isn't it should be..
One thought occurs to me - at what point does UNS become utterly meaningless and we prepare for a total Labour collapse? If the polls are anywhere approaching correct sub-20% for Labour is not a wholly unrealistic possibility. At that point, surely, all bets are off on the results in individual seats. As we saw in Scotland, there is a cliff edge.
However, Corbyn was 1-10 which was a bit peculiar.
However there is an interesting problem in that the 2013-2018-2023 etc. timetable for reviews is hard-written into law, designed to tie up with the FTPA. In the HoC briefing papers, civil servants identify the potential problem if an earlier election is called (amusingly in one paragraph using a 2017 GE as a hypothetical example) but the paper doesn't offer any solution.
Most probably, legislation will have to be amended to reset the timetable or, more sensibly, to remove the hard-wired dates and go for some more flexible formula in terms of scheduling future reviews.
The likelihood, however, is that the need to amend legislation, coupled with the extra time before the subsequent GE, the local electoral numbers changing as people rush to sign up in advance of June, and the data being used for the 2018 review becoming more out of date, will generate calls for the review to be re-started on different criteria. The new (current) criteria - particularly the inflexible +/- 5% tolerance - has been widely criticised by both academics and polticians, including some Tories.
If the Tories have a big majority, they may well press ahead - and indeed the timing question doesn't actually need to be addressed until the current review is completed. With a smaller majority things might become more interesting. In amending the Act, the HoL too gets a say - indeed the setting aside of the 2013 review began as a Lords amendment.
My best guess is that the Tories will implement the new boundaries in 2018 (for 2021/2) and then amend the future arrangements thereafter, postponing the subsequent review until after the 2022 GE. But this now looks less certain than it did last week.
What are they frightened of?
The 2011Holyrood election had 50% turnout and the 2016 had 55% turnout where the Conservatives managed to capture almost the entirety of that extra 5%.
The 2015 Westminster General Election also had unnaturally high turnout which almost certainly favoured the SNP.
What that means? Buggered if I know.
Usually every party's HQ is besieged by eager candidates wanting a visit; if not a target seat they'll be pleading for a 15 minute stop-off and quick photo opportunity, if their seat is anywhere near a motorway. Somehow I think the dynamic in Corbyn Towers might be a little different this time?
Why would he go? His party will be cast more in his image after a shellacking...
Edit:.. I approve of your avatar change!!
My own expectation is that it will stay LD, but I think it could be much tighter than expected.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39638012
The SNP screwed up their Orkeny and Shetland campaigns for Holyrood in a way that poisoned the well.
Still surprised Labour's apparent position is to support this.
I don't think he will resign until he can guarantee the left wing of the PLP a horse in the next leadership race.
Labour could be down to zero with the LDs on 2/3.
In Scotland the post referendum election was won by the losers as they were more determined and more united. I am not sure this election is the slam dunk the pollsters predict.
The other aspect is that there is only a couple of years since having LD MPs, so not a distant memory.
- won't express support for Corbyn as PM, although she still wants people to vote Labour
- says Labour won't win
- says she expects Labour to campaign for Brexit