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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French Presidential polls edge back a touch to Macron who
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French Presidential polls edge back a touch to Macron who is now odds-on in the betting once again
Tuesday’s shock announcement by Mrs May that there is to be an early UK General Election has rather overshadowed events in France where the country’s presidential election takes place on Sunday.
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Big fat reds against Fillon and Le Pen, green elsewhere.
So it's Fillon and Le Pen in the final two then. Nailed on
I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.
When do the Trumpian chants of "Lock Em Up" start?
Macron looking pretty firm still.
Macron will, I think, win the first round, and then the second.
Traitors must be punished for their treachery
I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.
Nick, having lived in Switzerland, there is much to admire (and a bit to find creepy) about the civic-mindedness of the Swiss and how they govern themselves. But that system is based upon totally different realities than Britain - different size, different community structures, different culture and a different political history. I don't see any feasible path from what we have in Britain to that sort of structure.
Even if we did, given the number of decisions and pieces of legislation the government has to make, it is unrealistic to consult the public on all of them. How do you decide which are referendum-worthy and which are not? At the moment, our practice seems to reserve referenda for clearly constitutional issues. I rather like that threshold
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/hartlepool-ponders-a-change-after-half-a-century-voting-labour
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/20/robots-racist-sexist-people-machines-ai-language
Is she going to stand for the mentalist party? She will fit right in.
Lon: +6
RoS: +43
MdW: +22
Nth: +13
Sc +14 (-20 vs SNP)
That 'North' number used to be low single digits - and for a long time was level pegging.....
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
Quelle surprise
My point is the same though. If Macron actually has a 6% lead, he's almost home and dry. We are talking about another sort of risk, which is the risk that he doesn't have a 6% lead.
Upon reading the headlines about his speech, my immediate thought was "Corbyn is trying to do a Trump". And then I laughed.
Trump, for all his faults, knows how to communicate effectively, even if we educational and political elite scoff at his almost childish verbal formulations. He understands that action is spurred by emotions, not cognition, and that 'facts' just do not get the job done. Speak to either people's fears or their aspirations, or as Trump did, both.
Jezza doesn't know how to communicate, period. He has no dream to inspire a majority of the electorate. And the fear he inspires is of himself, not the Tories.
@carlgardner: Infuriating that politicians who set Britain on course for disaster now just slip away, avoiding all the blame and anger they'll deserve.
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....
* assuming that David Prescott gets the nod.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
He hasn't lost yet.
* Unless the pollster has already done this
Macron 24%
Le Pen 23%
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 19%
http://www.bva-group.com/sondages/18eme-vague-dintentions-de-vote-4-jours-de-lelection-presidentielle/
If they get 20 seats and a slew of second place recoveries, they'll be thrilled I think.
@DPJHodges: Agree with @DMcCaffreySKY. Douglas Carswell had clearly been exploring possibility of running as Tory. Seems to have been rebuffed.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
Net Well : +5 (+6)
Sure, I'll take your money.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/855018543016030208
Hmm, Fillon is a pillock
Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.
We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.