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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight w
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight with Macron still ahead
France has some very tight laws on opinion polls including a complete ban on then being published on the day before an election. So the Wikipedia chart above represents all the polling that we will see until we get the exit polls tomorrow evening.
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Second place looks tighter. I suspect Le Pen will get it, but wouldn't be surprised if Fillon beat her.
As long as Melenchon's not in the top two, I'll be content.
Definitely contact the cabinet member. And if there is any sniff if it going beyond the appeal process (which I still think you'll win) contact the local Camden papers. It's always a good human interest story when people get fined despite being many miles away, and the council refuses to be sensible.
This, I posted on previous thread without realising the new one.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/michelle-thomson-will-step-down-as-an-mp-after-the-snp?utm_term=.boeGVqMxz#.tiWn7MYLD
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
If it is Macron vs Le Pen in the second round, then she has a 5% chance of winning. (That 20+ percentage point gap won't be closed easily.)
If it's Fillon vs Le Pen, then I'd give her a 15% chance. She's really closed the gap, but she still trails significantly. (And I suspect a lot of French voters who currently say they'd abstain in a second round would come out and vote for Fillon.)
If it's Melachon vs Le Pen, then I'd give her a 60% chance. Yes, the polls put Melachon in the lead, but I think he'd struggle under the scrutiny of the second round.
So, what's the chance that Le Pen doesn't make the second round? Shall we say 10%? The odds of Macron being her opponent have to be 60%, and let's make Fillon and Melachon 15% each.
So 60% * 5% + 15% * 15% + 15% * 60% = 3% + 2% + 5% = 10%.
She's still too long. Sell.
On that basis, go Melanchon and Fillion.
Any politician I meet goes on to become the firm betting favourite and then loses.
Case 1: Hillary Clinton
Case 2: Emmanuel Macron (tbc)
Given she's been charged by the Polis, it would have been a fairly tough sell to the electorate.
Possibly Byzantium during the Angeli dynasty.
Mr. 1000, that's nothing compared to the Curse of Morris Dancer.
....
I have also backed Macron.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/09/public-attitudes-tax-distribution/
And I'm done trading until the first round is over, I think - I trust the polls to the extent that it's any two from four - but not which two.
But I still have a very nice green on NDA if he'd be so kind as to cause a huge upset
Rumours:
https://order-order.com/2017/04/22/david-miliband-phoning-around-veteran-labour-mps/
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
Oh look Mummy - a Nat and facts! Look away son, look away......
Also, strong commitment to the ongoing Greek tragedy that is the Labour Party.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12111507 is a rather well presented discussion of this.
The abolition of VAT on fuel and sanitary products must form part of any post-Brexit budget.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/12/camerons-sheet-on-prices-of-everyday-goods-revealed
If journalists are prone to asking silly questions like this (and we know they are) then every politician should get themselves something similar and learn the numbers by heart! I'd be surprised if CCHQ don't do this already.
‘polling days would be on the first Thursday in May in the fifth calendar year’
This will mean that the election due in 2022 would be held on May 5th that year with Parliament being dissolved at the end of March 2022. Effectively, therefore, on June 8th we will be electing a Parliament which will not last more than 4.75 years.
Mr. Jim, unconfirmed and fictional excerpt of text sent from David Miliband to Jeremy Corbyn:
"I know what you're thinking. Did he get rejected by all six safe seats, or only five? In all the excitement, I lost count myself. But ask yourself this: do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?"
Mr. F, take it you mean Flavius Phocas?
None did as much damage to their own side as Corbyn. Honorius may be an exception, but he was maintaining decline rather than causing and accelerating it.
Honorius' treatment of Stilicho was an act of self-harm akin to idiotic Labour MPs sticking Corbyn on the ballot.
A little rambly blog about him, and the others, is here: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/basil-iis-odd-childhood.html
Anyway, leaving aside current players, why should the PM of the day have the big advantage of deciding the timing of the election?
Labour’s structure means that even though Corbyn is leader, he doesn’t control the party. Before members elected him in 2015, he was a fringe figure in Labour and doesn’t have the headquarters staff’s deep knowledge of the battleground and years of experience fighting elections.
Although the 2010 and 2015 elections were defeats for Labour, the party’s Field Operations team can point to some individual successes. In 2010, they helped to stop David Cameron’s Conservatives from winning a majority and five years later the party gained seats in England, a result masked by its near-wipeout in Scotland.
It is now identifying a defensive line, according to people familiar with the plans, which one person said might mean targeting resources at seats with majorities of around 5,000 or more.
“I don’t think that this election is about changing the government,” Labour lawmaker Helen Goodman told ITV News on Thursday. “This election is about preventing the Tories from getting such an overwhelming majority that there is no possibility of dissent in this country.”
This is just an isolated report, and it will be interesting to hear if there are similar reports in coming weeks, but the suggestion made in this piece sounds reasonable. Essentially, Labour HQ would tell MPs in the most vulnerable marginals to look to their own defences, and try to rescue those vulnerable to a swing greater than about 5% or 6% - i.e. to keep losses down to around 50. This implies that they're preparing for a national vote share somewhere in the 23-25% range, with damage limitation through over-performance in the 30 or so seats vulnerable to a swing of around 5-8%. Although that much said, if the Ukip collapse continues then a lot of previously very safe Labour holds - Sedgefield, Huddersfield, Don Valley, Torfaen, even Durham North West - become potentially vulnerable.
Assuming that the Liberal Democrats only make gains against the Tories in the high single figures, a Labour loss of around 50 seats would keep May's majority down to somewhere in the 90-110 range.
From Wiki:
"During the filming, Herzog gave some strange direction to elicit particular performances from the actors. In directing one dwarf who continually struggles not to laugh, Herzog repeatedly told the actor that he must not laugh, but then made funny faces at him as soon as he started filming.
While filming the scene where a van drove in circles with no one at the wheel, one of the actors was run over, but immediately stood up uninjured. During the flower burning scene, the same actor caught fire and Werner Herzog raced over and beat the fire out. The actor only had minor injuries from the fire."
Etc...
£1,000 to the first major party candidate to tweet "Pretty disappointing reception on the doorstep this morning. Was expecting better".
£2,000 to the candidate who tweets "This election is about standing up for slovenly, dishonest families".
£3,000 to the candidate who tweets "This election is not too close to call. Every vote doesn't count. I've got it in the bag/lost".
The UK government advised the Scottish government at the time that this change would take them out of the scope of the VAT refunds as they are now funded differently to other police and fire services in Great Britain.'
https://www.cchdaily.co.uk/hmrc-warned-police-scotland-ps76m-vat-bill
Sure it is, Clive, I believe you. That is, I believe you may well believe some Tories care about others, but you certainly want to encourage supporters to genuinely consider it in such simplistic, moral terms, because it helps you get elected. Pathetic.
From Wiki
The reign of Phocas is also marked by the change of Imperial fashion set by Constantine the Great. Constantine and all his successors, except Julian the Apostate, were beardless. Phocas again introduced the wearing of the beard