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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Download the Rallings and Thrasher Election 2015 book for FREE

The leading psephologists, Profs Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, are making their reference work on last General Election, Election 2015 Results and Tables, available online so people can download it. It is in PDF format and runs to 437 pages.

Read the full story here

kle4

Danke schoen

IanB2

Second. Like Corbyn will be very lucky to be.

FPT: The next recession will be on the Tories' watch and is going to hit them incredibly hard.

kle4

Sandpit said:

SimonStClare said:

https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/865553683387367425

Hope the arsehole has been paying his fair dues in child support.

LOL! Self-imposed exile after running from justice isn't "Detained" by any definition of the word. Idiot.

According to the UN it is. Idiots.

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/865595985896120321

I'd like if she lost. But she won't.

TOPPING said:

kle4 said:

Disraeli said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/865597550308450304

Looks like Starmer will challenge Corbyn if he loses

Looks like, and that the challengers no longer think Corbyn will do worse than Ed M, in vote share at least - the belief is growing, even as the seats tally is still expected to be very bad.

Good points.

Nevertheless, if Corbyn could get,say, 35% of the vote then he could point out that he had been able to attract just over one million more people to vote for the him than Ed Miliband.

He could argue (plausibly) that in a special year such as this one that he did better than the Blairites would have (in part because there would be little differentiation between Blairite and Mayism)

Oh, I have long thought if he faced a shellacking he would, despite statements to the contrary, stand down for fear of provoking a split...but if he does get that many votes, which will save some number of seats, then I fully expect he will stay on with that as his defence, and the others will be too cowed by his relative out performance to split.

Well hold on, if he does get that number of votes then why shouldn't he stay on? He can say that Brexit was a unique set of circumstances, that the party was in the middle of a reorganisation, and that people had just given him a mandate to complete the move leftwards.

That was my point - he will have a legitimate justification for saying he should stay on if he does that well, and because he did that (relative) well, his opponents won't dare split.

MarkHopkins

IanB2 said:

Second. Like Corbyn will be very lucky to be.

FPT: The next recession will be on the Tories' watch and is going to hit them incredibly hard.

General Election 2010: cuts will doom election winner

TOPPING

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

SimonStClare said:

https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/865553683387367425

Hope the arsehole has been paying his fair dues in child support.

LOL! Self-imposed exile after running from justice isn't "Detained" by any definition of the word. Idiot.

According to the UN it is. Idiots.

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/865595985896120321

I'd like if she lost. But she won't.

TOPPING said:

kle4 said:

Disraeli said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/865597550308450304

Looks like Starmer will challenge Corbyn if he loses

Looks like, and that the challengers no longer think Corbyn will do worse than Ed M, in vote share at least - the belief is growing, even as the seats tally is still expected to be very bad.

Good points.

Nevertheless, if Corbyn could get,say, 35% of the vote then he could point out that he had been able to attract just over one million more people to vote for the him than Ed Miliband.

He could argue (plausibly) that in a special year such as this one that he did better than the Blairites would have (in part because there would be little differentiation between Blairite and Mayism)

Oh, I have long thought if he faced a shellacking he would, despite statements to the contrary, stand down for fear of provoking a split...but if he does get that many votes, which will save some number of seats, then I fully expect he will stay on with that as his defence, and the others will be too cowed by his relative out performance to split.

Well hold on, if he does get that number of votes then why shouldn't he stay on? He can say that Brexit was a unique set of circumstances, that the party was in the middle of a reorganisation, and that people had just given him a mandate to complete the move leftwards.

That was my point - he will have a legitimate justification for saying he should stay on if he does that well, and because he did that (relative) well, his opponents won't dare split.

nice format rescue.

kle4

TOPPING said:

I started at 60-100, moved up to 70-120 and am now probably back at 60-100. .

A lot of people actually initially predicted 50-80 range, on here at least, but that will be forgotten if it actually happens in favour of mocking that some then moved on to 100+

IanB2

MarkHopkins said:

IanB2 said:

Second. Like Corbyn will be very lucky to be.

FPT: The next recession will be on the Tories' watch and is going to hit them incredibly hard.

General Election 2010: cuts will doom election winner

The economy didn't turn south on their watch, though, did it?

Ishmael_Z

IanB2 said:

MarkHopkins said:

IanB2 said:

Second. Like Corbyn will be very lucky to be.

FPT: The next recession will be on the Tories' watch and is going to hit them incredibly hard.

General Election 2010: cuts will doom election winner

The economy didn't turn south on their watch, though, did it?

No, but the author of the piece thought at the time it was going to, didn't he? So your point isn't actually in your own favour.

kle4

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Sunil_Prasannan

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says .

How many in England and Wales?

IanB2

Ishmael_Z said:

IanB2 said:

MarkHopkins said:

IanB2 said:

Second. Like Corbyn will be very lucky to be.

FPT: The next recession will be on the Tories' watch and is going to hit them incredibly hard.

General Election 2010: cuts will doom election winner

The economy didn't turn south on their watch, though, did it?

No, but the author of the piece thought at the time it was going to, didn't he? So your point isn't actually in your own favour.

It is, if the economy heads south before 2022.

Sandpit

Awesome resource, thanks to the professors for making their work available to us all

SimonStClare

Very generous of Rallings and Thrasher. – Do the wonderfully accurate polls get a mention?

surbiton

https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/info/20167/dementia_awareness_week

May 14th to the 20th is the Dementia Awareness Week.

Theresa May [ she leads the Conservative Party ], chose to foist the Dementia Tax appropriately in this week.

kle4

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says .

How many in England and Wales?

As a percentage of the total? Fewer.

Sunil_Prasannan

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says .

How many in England and Wales?

As a percentage of the total? Fewer.

I meant the absolute number. 200+?

kle4

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says .

How many in England and Wales?

As a percentage of the total? Fewer.

I meant the absolute number. 200+?

263

Sandpit

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says .

How many in England and Wales?

According to my favourite Twitter feed of election night 2015, they lost 340 in total.

https://mobile.twitter.com/libdemdeposits

kle4

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says .

How many in England and Wales?

According to,my favourite Twitter feed of election night 2015, they lost 340 in total.

https://mobile.twitter.com/libdemdeposits

This book says 341

Toms

The Tories will no doubt win.
But many of us would never conceive of voting Tory. Not ever.
A sensible alternative would be to vote Green or LibDem, and some no doubt will.
But our politics is essentially polarised.
So Labour may not do as badly as might be necessary to shed its dingleberry.

Alistair

IanB2 said:

MarkHopkins said:

IanB2 said:

Second. Like Corbyn will be very lucky to be.

FPT: The next recession will be on the Tories' watch and is going to hit them incredibly hard.

General Election 2010: cuts will doom election winner

The economy didn't turn south on their watch, though, did it?

Key thing was they didn't implement the cuts they said they would do.

Alistair

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?

Sandpit

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says .

How many in England and Wales?

According to,my favourite Twitter feed of election night 2015, they lost 340 in total.

https://mobile.twitter.com/libdemdeposits

This book says 341

I'd go with the book as the definitive number.

Ah, wasn't there one constituency election postponed, due to the death of a candidate? That might explain the difference.

kle4

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?

Brent Central, over 35%.

Biggest Tory drop was Clacton, then the Bradfords.

Biggest Lab drops were all in Scotland, some only just less than the LD Brent Central drop.

AlastairMeeks

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?

Edinburgh South!

TOPPING

surbiton said:

https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/info/20167/dementia_awareness_week

May 14th to the 20th is the Dementia Awareness Week.

Theresa May [ she leads the Conservative Party ], chose to foist the Dementia Tax appropriately in this week.

What a bitch, eh?

isam

Regarding the So Solid comments on the last thread ( v funny @not_on_fire ), can you imagine Diane Abbott trying to do the rap at the end of his solo single?!

"Two multiplied by ten, plus one... erm hang on"

kle4

Looks like UKIP only went backwards, and even then marginally, in two seats. Very impressive result. Greens the same thing, in fairness.

Moray second lowest SNP surge last time, Angus fourth lowest (presumably they were relatively high already, since it was enough to win).

rcs1000

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.

Alistair

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?

Edinburgh South!

-30.3! Impressive

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?

Brent Central, over 35%.

Biggest Tory drop was Clacton, then the Bradfords.

Biggest Lab drops were all in Scotland, some only just less than the LD Brent Central drop.

But Brent Central is a humdinger, especially as they were in first place.

felix

TOPPING said:

surbiton said:

https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/info/20167/dementia_awareness_week

May 14th to the 20th is the Dementia Awareness Week.

Theresa May [ she leads the Conservative Party ], chose to foist the Dementia Tax appropriately in this week.

What a bitch, eh?

Oh don't start him off with his mysogyny - then Justin 124 will pile in and want her euthanised - these left-wingers get pretty nasty.

Ishmael_Z

IanB2 said:

Ishmael_Z said:

IanB2 said:

MarkHopkins said:

IanB2 said:

Second. Like Corbyn will be very lucky to be.

FPT: The next recession will be on the Tories' watch and is going to hit them incredibly hard.

General Election 2010: cuts will doom election winner

The economy didn't turn south on their watch, though, did it?

No, but the author of the piece thought at the time it was going to, didn't he? So your point isn't actually in your own favour.

It is, if the economy heads south before 2022.

If.

As in, αἴκε.

Alistair

kle4 said:

Looks like UKIP only went backwards, and even then marginally, in two seats. Very impressive result. Greens the same thing, in fairness.

Moray second lowest SNP surge last time, Angus fourth lowest (presumably they were relatively high already, since it was enough to win).

My initial Scottish model in 2015 saw them losing votes in Moray, Angus and Banff & Buchan - they actually lost Banff despite taking 45 seats ish. Low Yes vote in Indy Ref.

AndyJS

The University of East Anglia believes there is a 74% chance of a Tory gain in Norwich South:

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/will-norfolk-turn-completely-blue-on-june-9-1-5021158

"The hugely-respected UEA model goes as far as to predict a Tory rout with gains in Labour’s Norwich South and the Liberal Democrats’ North Norfolk."

IanB2

Alistair said:

IanB2 said:

MarkHopkins said:

IanB2 said:

Second. Like Corbyn will be very lucky to be.

FPT: The next recession will be on the Tories' watch and is going to hit them incredibly hard.

General Election 2010: cuts will doom election winner

The economy didn't turn south on their watch, though, did it?

Key thing was they didn't implement the cuts they said they would do.

Indeed, they implemented Labour's cuts; despite all of Dancing Ed's gurning and gesticulating from the opposition front bench, the profile of spending cuts 2010-15 was pretty much what Mr Balls had himself proposed during the 2010 election campaign.

Nevertheless the fact remains that an economic downturn on top of Brexit during the next five years is going to hit the Tories so very hard.

Alice_Aforethought

Toms said:

A sensible alternative would be to vote Green

This is the kind of deadpan wit that draws me to this site.

felix

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.

I think that is a very brave forecast on current polling. My guess would be 2 max.

Roger

Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.

Eat your heart out Hartlepool!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIvqhhzTBmY&feature=youtu.be

rottenborough

AndyJS said:

The University of East Anglia believes there is a 74% chance of a Tory gain in Norwich South:

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/will-norfolk-turn-completely-blue-on-june-9-1-5021158

"The hugely-respected UEA model goes as far as to predict a Tory rout with gains in Labour’s Norwich South and the Liberal Democrats’ North Norfolk."

One less person to be LibDem leader then.

AndyJS

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.

They could also win Argyll & Bute if Tory supporters voted tactically for the LDs but I think they probably won't this time.

kle4

LD highest percentages

1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again
2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again
3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again
4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose
5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000
6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again.
7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding)
8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss.
9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means)
10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back
11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate
12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again.
13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals.
14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss.
15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.

kle4

Roger said:

Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.

Why would you expect that?

felix

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.

They could also win Argyll & Bute if Tory supporters voted tactically for the LDs but I think they probably won't this time.

Why on earth would they do that when the LDs won't return the favour?

kle4

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.

Well, you're not known for being over optimistic when it comes to LD seat chances, although that's still pretty bold

AlastairMeeks

For those playing around with predictors, here's Lord Ashcroft's:

https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=²·&RLId=²³&PId=±´ºµ´&UId=´¹¹¹¼&RpId=26

kle4

felix said:

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.

They could also win Argyll & Bute if Tory supporters voted tactically for the LDs but I think they probably won't this time.

Why on earth would they do that when the LDs won't return the favour?

The greater good.

Black_Rook

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

The latest YouGov Scotland-only poll had the 2015 Lib Dem to Tory defection rate running at about 40%, with virtually no flow in the opposite direction. The usual caveats about tiny subsamples apply, but even so it makes logical sense in light of the expected pattern, which you highlight: the step from Lib Dem to Con will not, for the average voter, be as great as that from Lab to Con (running at about a quarter of the 2015 Lab vote in the poll,) and in terms of seats where Unionist voters might be asking who the best-placed challenger to the SNP is, the Lib Dems are only the leading choice in nine Scottish constituencies, based on the 2015 results (the one they still retain, plus eight second places.)

There's no particular reason to anticipate anything other than a very expensive night of lost deposits practically everywhere else.

Toms

Alice_Aforethought said:

Toms said:

A sensible alternative would be to vote Green

This is the kind of deadpan wit that draws me to this site.

Be the humour in the editing?

IanB2

kle4 said:

LD highest percentages

1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again
2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again
3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again
4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose
5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000
6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again.
7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding)
8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss.
9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means)
10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back
11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate
12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again.
13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals.
14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss.
15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.

I'd say winning Eastbourne is more likely than not. The current policy controversy enhances the chances. W&L is nailed on. Norfolk Nth is too close to call, not dead cert to lose. Twickenham remains an outside chance. T&Y unlikely to win. Don't write off Cambridge, although Labour's cynical pitch to students makes this more of a challenge.

NickPalmer

Thoroughly off topic - I remember some on PB rather liked the election of Duterte in the Phillippines, because although he's a bit Trumpish in his outspokenness they felt he was a good no-nonsense fellow who would deal toughly with criminals.

Now he's decided to make ALL smoking in public illegal, indoors or outdoors, and to throw smokers in prison. Still on board, guys?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/19/philippines-president-bans-smoking-in-public-with-offenders-facing-jail

isam

NickPalmer said:

Thoroughly off topic - I remember some on PB rather liked the election of Duterte in the Phillippines, because although he's a bit Trumpish in his outspokenness they felt he was a good no-nonsense fellow who would deal toughly with criminals.

Now he's decided to make ALL smoking in public illegal, indoors or outdoors, and to throw smokers in prison. Still on board, guys?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/19/philippines-president-bans-smoking-in-public-with-offenders-facing-jail

Apart from the prison bit, I agree! I was just thinking the other day that smokers should at least have to stand in a separate space outdoors.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?

Edinburgh South!

-30.3! Impressive

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?

Brent Central, over 35%.

Biggest Tory drop was Clacton, then the Bradfords.

Biggest Lab drops were all in Scotland, some only just less than the LD Brent Central drop.

But Brent Central is a humdinger, especially as they were in first place.

I had some seats near Hereford with gargantuan losses

felix

kle4 said:

felix said:

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.

They could also win Argyll & Bute if Tory supporters voted tactically for the LDs but I think they probably won't this time.

Why on earth would they do that when the LDs won't return the favour?

The greater good.

you can't trust a LD further than you can throw them.

nunu

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?

Brent Central, over 35%.

Biggest Tory drop was Clacton, then the Bradfords.

Biggest Lab drops were all in Scotland, some only just less than the LD Brent Central drop.

I remember in 2005 a Labour activist came into the Mosque to try to promote Dawn Butler. One guy stood up and started shouting at him about Iraq, the labour activist had to stop. I kinda felt bad for him as he wasn't able to say his piece but most of all I was laughing my head off.

GeoffM

AndyJS said:

The University of East Anglia believes there is a 74% chance of a Tory gain in Norwich South:

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/will-norfolk-turn-completely-blue-on-june-9-1-5021158

"The hugely-respected UEA model goes as far as to predict a Tory rout with gains in Labour’s Norwich South and the Liberal Democrats’ North Norfolk."

That;'s the place which published falsified climate data.

Wouldn't trust them with numbers.

Pulpstar

My transition model is particularly bad for the LDS but retention she be better in held seats I err think

kle4

Pulpstar said:

My transition model is particularly bad for the LDS but retention she be better in held seats I err think

Doesn't help of the Tories rise in some of them. Retention was great in Dunbarton East, it couldn't hold off the SNP surge.

GIN1138

News an absolute and utter cluster **** for May and the Tories tonight!

calum

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

Roger

kle4 said:

Roger said:

Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.

Why would you expect that?

Because it's a city I've never heard of and I misjudged how modern what I thought was an average city would be in China.

And we're arguing about high speed rail!

another_richard

AndyJS said:

The University of East Anglia believes there is a 74% chance of a Tory gain in Norwich South:

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/will-norfolk-turn-completely-blue-on-june-9-1-5021158

"The hugely-respected UEA model goes as far as to predict a Tory rout with gains in Labour’s Norwich South and the Liberal Democrats’ North Norfolk."

It also predicts a 100% chance of a Conservative gain in Norfolk North.

In other words its model has errors.

kle4

GIN1138 said:

News an absolute and utter cluster **** for May and the Tories tonight!

If there was a time for Lab to get within 10 points at some stage, it would be now.

chrisb

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

LD highest percentages

1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again
2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again
3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again
4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose
5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000
6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again.
7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding)
8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss.
9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means)
10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back
11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate
12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again.
13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals.
14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss.
15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.

I'd say winning Eastbourne is more likely than not. The current policy controversy enhances the chances. W&L is nailed on. Norfolk Nth is too close to call, not dead cert to lose. Twickenham remains an outside chance. T&Y unlikely to win. Don't write off Cambridge, although Labour's cynical pitch to students makes this more of a challenge.

7/4 from William Hill for the Cons in Twickenham must be a great bet if you think the LDs are only an outside chance there.

GeoffM

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.

For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.

Sandpit

Roger said:

kle4 said:

Roger said:

Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.

Why would you expect that?

Because it's a city I've never heard of and I misjudged how modern what I thought was an average city would be in China.

And we're arguing about high speed rail!

Agree, what's going on in the second tier cities in China is astonishing - yet almost completely under the radar to most of us.

http://online.wsj.com/ad/article/chinaenergy-cities

dr_spyn

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

The University of East Anglia believes there is a 74% chance of a Tory gain in Norwich South:

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/will-norfolk-turn-completely-blue-on-june-9-1-5021158

"The hugely-respected UEA model goes as far as to predict a Tory rout with gains in Labour’s Norwich South and the Liberal Democrats’ North Norfolk."

It also predicts a 100% chance of a Conservative gain in Norfolk North.

In other words its model has errors.

Have they borrowed the climate change department's computer programme?

GeoffM

nunu said:

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?

Brent Central, over 35%.

Biggest Tory drop was Clacton, then the Bradfords.

Biggest Lab drops were all in Scotland, some only just less than the LD Brent Central drop.

I remember in 2005 a Labour activist came into the Mosque to try to promote Dawn Butler. One guy stood up and started shouting at him about Iraq, the labour activist had to stop. I kinda felt bad for him as he wasn't able to say his piece but most of all I was laughing my head off.

He got away lightly with just being shouted at.

On a bad day you lot would have beheaded him or chained him to a radiator for a decade.

GeoffM

dr_spyn said:

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

The University of East Anglia believes there is a 74% chance of a Tory gain in Norwich South:

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/will-norfolk-turn-completely-blue-on-june-9-1-5021158

"The hugely-respected UEA model goes as far as to predict a Tory rout with gains in Labour’s Norwich South and the Liberal Democrats’ North Norfolk."

It also predicts a 100% chance of a Conservative gain in Norfolk North.

In other words its model has errors.

Have they borrowed the climate change department's computer programme?

Hide the decline!

MikeSmithson

kle4 said:

LD highest percentages

1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again
2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again
3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again
4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose
5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000
6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again.
7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding)
8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss.
9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means)
10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back
11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate
12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again.
13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals.
14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss.
15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.

Well get your money on with an LD sell bet on the spreads.

@SportingIndex 15-18
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british?tpid=6441&btag=a_7b_95c_ … … … … … … …
Spreadex14-17
https://spreadex.com?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spr … … … … … …

If you sell at 15 and they get 5 you win ten times your stake

AndyJS

New forecast from Stephen Fisher:

Con 386
Lab 177
LD 13
Greens 1
SNP 46
PC 3

Con maj 123

https://electionsetc.com/

GIN1138

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?

Peter_the_Punter

GeoffM said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.

For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.

It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.

I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.

Cheers.

kle4

MikeSmithson said:

kle4 said:

LD highest percentages

1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again
2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again
3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again
4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose
5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000
6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again.
7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding)
8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss.
9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means)
10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back
11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate
12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again.
13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals.
14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss.
15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.

Well get your money on with a sell bet on the spreads.

@SportingIndex 15-18
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british?tpid=6441&btag=a_7b_95c_ … … … … … … …
Spreadex14-17
https://spreadex.com?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spr … … … … … …

I have some small amounts on the lowest LD performance I can find. I've always overestimated them and ignored what the evidence tells me, and I'm trying not to now.

LordWakefield

IanB2 said:

Second. Like Corbyn will be very lucky to be.

FPT: The next recession will be on the Tories' watch and is going to hit them incredibly hard.

1992?

OUT

Peter_the_Punter said:

GeoffM said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.

For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.

It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.

I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.

Cheers.

He knows, he's just trying too hard to be uber English.

AndyJS

Latest prediction from Chris Hanretty:

Con 405
Lab 166
LD 5
SNP 53
PC 2
Greens 0

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

bobajobPB

surbiton said:

https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/info/20167/dementia_awareness_week

May 14th to the 20th is the Dementia Awareness Week.

Theresa May [ she leads the Conservative Party ], chose to foist the Dementia Tax appropriately in this week.

!

TheScreamingEagles

From one of my Corbynite friends.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/865626240929091584

calum

GIN1138 said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?

Will be an interesting vote !

Alistair

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.

I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.

I think that is a very brave forecast on current polling. My guess would be 2 max.

At Holyrood LD Constituency vote went down (admittedly only 0.1%) but they picked up two extra constituency seats.

OUT

calum said:

GIN1138 said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?

Will be an interesting vote !

For the good of the Union an stuff like.

Ishmael_Z

Peter_the_Punter said:

GeoffM said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.

For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.

It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.

I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.

Cheers.

"Scotch" meaning whisky is an Americanism. In GB it is called "whisky". OTOH I think scotch eggs are scotch, not Scottish.

another_richard

AndyJS said:

Latest prediction from Chris Hanretty:

Con 405
Lab 166
LD 5
SNP 53
PC 2
Greens 0

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

There's some right bollox among those predictions.

Does Hanretty put his money where his model is ?

kle4

AndyJS said:

Latest prediction from Chris Hanretty:

Con 405
Lab 166
LD 5
SNP 53
PC 2
Greens 0

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Seat Loss LD 'very likely', SNP seat loss 'probable'. Greens only as seat loss 'possible', but I think that's a change - predicting a narrow Lab win.

Still putting Bristol West as a possible LD gain, which surprises me, as I rarely see it elsewhere on the list of potentials like Cambridge, Bemondsey or Bath for instance. I'm pessimistic about their changes of holding some seats, but I think they'll be closer in a few than this model suggests, which is not close at all.

I just don't see how the Tories lose Dumfriesshire. Surely not?

Alistair

AndyJS said:

Latest prediction from Chris Hanretty:

Con 405
Lab 166
LD 5
SNP 53
PC 2
Greens 0

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

If SNP are nailed on with 3 guaranteed loses. DCT, BRS, EdW

To hold everything else would be spectacular and not supported by current polling in my view.

Sandpit

GIN1138 said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?

They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.

No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.

Jason

Wow just WTF was that before C4 News???

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

From one of my Corbynite friends.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/865626240929091584

Why stop at A New Hope? The Empire of Tories is about to strike back!

GIN1138

Sandpit said:

GIN1138 said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?

They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.

No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.

Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...

RobD

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From one of my Corbynite friends.

twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/865626240929091584

Why stop at A New Hope? The Empire of Tories is about to strike back!

Interesting. I didn't see any proposals in the manifesto that said May will abolish the Lords and replace them with regional governors.

FF43

Peter_the_Punter said:

GeoffM said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.

For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.

It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.

I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.

Cheers.

I object more to an entire nation being dismissed as immature and not grown up.

And I am Scotch!

rcs1000

AndyJS said:

Latest prediction from Chris Hanretty:

Con 405
Lab 166
LD 5
SNP 53
PC 2
Greens 0

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

The SNP lost quite a few Holyrood seats last year, and has shed support since then.

I think Hanretty's SNP number is probably 10 too high, and it may be more like 13 or 14.

RobD

GIN1138 said:

Sandpit said:

GIN1138 said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?

They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.

No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.

Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...

I thought the vox pop of older folks was more along the lines of annoyed, but still voting for May.

GeoffM

Peter_the_Punter said:

GeoffM said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.

For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.

It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.

I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.

Cheers.

I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.

Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do

kle4

GIN1138 said:

Sandpit said:

GIN1138 said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?

They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.

No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.

Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...

Toxic because they are actually admitting to taking stuff away from people? I'll get the smelling salts.

I don't doubt they will take a small hit for some of their plans, but the only reason Labour's isn't 'toxic' is it is a spending splurge of unrealistic proportions, and the LD's isn't toxic because nobody but me has read the thing - the Tory one was always, in comparison, going to contain negatives.

fitalass

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

If I was May I would fast track implementation of this policy for Scotland from Westminster, and then leave it up to the SNP to explain why the hell they have needed to ask for such a cynically long delayed period for some of these newly devolved powers... Its not like they have been even getting on with the day job or passing any legislation in the last year. What have they been doing apart from playing constitutional grudge and grievance politics?

Peter_the_Punter

Ishmael_Z said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

GeoffM said:

calum said:

English votes for ....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865621552720736256
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/865620388918775808

The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.

For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.

It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.

I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.

Cheers.

"Scotch" meaning whisky is an Americanism. In GB it is called "whisky". OTOH I think scotch eggs are scotch, not Scottish.

Yes, I knew about scotch/whisky, but its an Americanism that is widely recognised here. Not sure about scotch eggs, or scotch mist for that matter, but no way I'm having Scotch for the people of Scotland!

Philip_Thompson

MikeSmithson said:

kle4 said:

LD highest percentages

1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again
2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again
3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again
4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose
5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000
6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again.
7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding)
8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss.
9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means)
10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back
11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate
12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again.
13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals.
14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss.
15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.

Well get your money on with an LD sell bet on the spreads.

@SportingIndex 15-18
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british?tpid=6441&btag=a_7b_95c_ … … … … … … …
Spreadex14-17
https://spreadex.com?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spr … … … … … …

If you sell at 15 and they get 5 you win ten times your stake

Selling Lib Dems on the spreads seems incredibly dangerous to me. There is a limited amount that can be won if you're right but if for some reason the Lib Dems suddenly surged there is a very long tail of what can be lost.

Selling Lib Dems is probably safer done on a straight over/under bar level I would have thought.

kle4

RobD said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From one of my Corbynite friends.

twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/865626240929091584

Why stop at A New Hope? The Empire of Tories is about to strike back!

Interesting. I didn't see any proposals in the manifesto that said May will abolish the Lords and replace them with regional governors.

More that they are about to hit the base of their enemy hard.

IanB2

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Latest prediction from Chris Hanretty:

Con 405
Lab 166
LD 5
SNP 53
PC 2
Greens 0

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Seat Loss LD 'very likely', SNP seat loss 'probable'. Greens only as seat loss 'possible', but I think that's a change - predicting a narrow Lab win.

Still putting Bristol West as a possible LD gain, which surprises me, as I rarely see it elsewhere on the list of potentials like Cambridge, Bemondsey or Bath for instance. I'm pessimistic about their changes of holding some seats, but I think they'll be closer in a few than this model suggests, which is not close at all.

I just don't see how the Tories lose Dumfriesshire. Surely not?

Would be surprised to see Lucas lose in Brighton.