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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take Care. The implications of the Conservative policy on soci
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take Care. The implications of the Conservative policy on social care
General elections aren’t usually about big ideas. They’re usually occasions for the parties to try to come up with visual representations of their opponents that sting, for frenetic arguments about trivial events and for their leaders to pose in unlikely photo-opportunities. Voters are expected to react, not to think.
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- The Labour manifesto promises to raise Inheritance Tax
- The Labour manifesto promises to raise Capital Gains Tax
- Many will fear that Labour would launch an attack on ISAs
The Conservative policy makes no difference as far as residential care costs are concerned - in fact it eases the burden by raising the savings threshold to £100k.
Where the Conservative policy does hit people is with in-home care costs.
But what proportion of wealthy pensioners are relying on care supplied by their local council in the first place - which normally consists of 15 or 30 minute visits at best?
If you are a wealthy pensioner I would have thought you would be far, far more likely to be using a private care agency - and thus incurring the cost already. And if you don't have enough income to pay for it, you'll do an equity release to raise the necessary funds to pay for it.
Are people in the South who own homes likely to be worth £300k+ (and usually much more) really settling for a very poor service from their local council rather than paying about £10 per hour for a good quality tailored service from a private care agency? Whilst sitting on a £300k+ asset which would fund it?
Cheers Mr Meeks, it’s not often we get a sensible thread on party manifesto proposals, especially on a subject that is of such growing concern for the UK. On a political point, there are something like four polls out today I believe, that will hopefully show how the main party manifestos have been received by the wider public, should be interesting.
As Alastair says, the WFA will probably generate more focus because it's an identifiable current payment whose loss would be noticed straight away.
The background message is that pensioners are no longer a protected group under the Tories, and will have to take some share of the pain. Everyone is a prospective pensioner, so this may well lose a few votes, but on the other hand there will be young people pleased to see some element of fairness breaking into Tory inter-generational policy - even if Labour's bag of goodies looks more attractive provided you don't think too much about where the money is coming from. If Labour does manage to get elected, trying to honour their manifesto will make Cameron's mistakes in 2015 look amateur by comparison.
Once yer kids are adults, downsize and enjoy life ffs.
British psychology is bonkers sometimes.
The Guardian puts it thus (although personally I'd take the wine anyway on a 'never know' basis): Consider the advice that a glass of red wine a day is good for you. If a doctor says it, you’ll accept it. But if the same advice comes from an alcoholic, you’ll hesitate. Labour aspires to be entrusted with the nation’s health and wealth. But the country first needs to be sure that its hands are not trembling.
Vote Labour, we will not get elected
(While I am loathe to complicate the tax system further, one of the key purposes must surely be to encourage the efficient use of resources. People in houses far too big for them is not efficient. Could we perhaps exempt people from stamp duty on purchases when they are trading down post the age of 50?)
Since it isn't obvious why turnout should be particularly high this time (save for a few anecdotes of first-time referendum voters converted into always-voters), this probably gives the Tories a further edge.
Sir Lynton Crosby (pbuh) spent two years working/focus grouping/polling the 2015 Tory manifesto and general campaign strategy, this time he's been only working for a few weeks on this snap election.
So don't be surprised if this campaign isn't as brilliant as the 2015 one.
Gas hydrates are the most abundant fossil fuels on earth, and the total amount available might exceed all other fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) combined. They are methane that is trapped in an ice-like structure at the bottom of the ocean. If the Chinese have successfully worked out a way to (economically) harvest them, it is potentially huge news.
(The problem with gas hydrates is that they only stay trapped while they are under immense pressure at the bottom of the sea.)
The other problem is that there are few smaller properties that appeal to the youngrr retired, in particular people like to have plenty of social space downstairs, while needing fewer bedrooms. There is also a desire to be able to put up grandchildren when they visit. Increasingly either grandparents help look after their grandchildren to help out working parents, or live at distance where they must stay overnight when they visit.
A further problem is that we have acquired a lot more junk than previous generations, and need storage space.
Stamp duty is a particularly poor tax though, as it is a tax on residential mobility, being a further bar on internal migration to where jobs are. Replacing it with an annual property/land tax would level the playing field.
I am sick of being taxed , I am sick of excuses by govt for their failings that things cost us more. I worked damed hard for 50 yrs, I have a lovey house and I am not moving. Its too big acc to your suggestion but its MY HOME. Taxing me our of it.. pffffff
As for the rented sector the annual property tax would have to be passed on to the renter, I reckon they would feel the same when you asked them to cough up.
He'd never make a rookie mistake like she has done and led to today's Telegraph front page. Giving the Scots benefits that English can't have, especially those English who are paying for it and/or living in the desolate North.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/865671981307441152
In general, I consider this proposal to be a marked improvement on where we are at the moment.
How did that work out?
I support the principles behind the policy but it has been poorly explained and has a few flaws in it.
As for efficient allocation of resources, Tell that to voters as the reasoning. , Good luck with that.
On topic. Thank you very much Mr Meeks, a very informative piece. What this has shown, in my opinion, is just how f****** stupid the left are. They literally don't realise that they are lining up to the right of the Tories. And Tim Farron's contribution to the debate just showed him to be totally out of touch with reality.
My one concern about the Tories policy is that this is another policy that puts it in the government's interest for property prices to keep on rising. You can guarantee that £100,000 won't be going up over the next five years.
I don't know how many people will have noticed the difference in Tory policy on winter fuel payments in Scotland. But again, even if you're an angry Englishman, who else are you going to vote for?
The only thing it might do is leave Tory majorities in the south both smaller and softer, so if Labour ever come to their senses and revisit Planet Earth they might not be quite as far out of their reach as I had thought.
Incidentally don't forget that while the Telegraph is headlining winter fuel they have also gone with this story on Corbyn:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/exclusive-mi5-opened-file-jeremy-corbyn-amid-concerns-ira-links/amp/
The predicted dead cat?
I'm sure totally unconnected to how the social care reforms are going on the door step.
But I reckon property prices will ease a little bit once the baby boomers start to snuff it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/05/18/lettersthe-tories-care-reforms-price-worth-paying-fairer-society/
What a difference 24 hours makes.
Plaid slight favourites at 5/6 over Labour at 10/11
Chris Bryant might need new underpants....but no more photos please..
Fox's dictum applies "the only fair tax is one on other people".
The bottom line is that if the equity in property flows down the generations in full, then the next generation, as a whole, doesn't need to purchase the country's housing stock afresh - it's simply a question of how it is distributed (which is of course a massive issue in itself). If however the equity is spent - either to support living costs in the absence of adequate pension provision, or on health or care - then the next generation does have to buy its homes from scratch, which must drag the cost of housing back down to what people can realistically afford in relation to average earnings.
Where we agree is that longer lifespans, inadequate pension provision and rising care costs all point towards a significant part of property equity being spent during old age rather than left intact for the heirs.
Probably neither. It reads more like an ex-spook has phoned the Telegraph which has padded it out from the files.
Why do you think the Tories have dropped Cameron's cast iron tax promise?
I'm a six percenter. I believe that the state should be limited to 6% of GDP. But I also think that taxes should encourage work and discourage misallocation of capital. I would prefer to largely eliminate income taxes, and replace them with something like a gross assets levy.
To answer @MikeL's question, I know someone who works in adult social care in Surrey (and has done so for many years). I'll see what she thinks when I next see her but I suspect your right. If you could afford it you pay for it yourself.
My mother spent the last years of her life in a care home and we sold her house to fund it. It cost about £700 a week. My brother, sister and myself were very pleased that she could afford private care and we didn't once discuss its impact on our inheritance, and I personally didn't give it a thought.
Having recently been on a cruise on the Queen Elizabeth, I compared costs and it is very similar to a care home. For that you get top quality hotel accommodation, excellent food and entertainment, new places to see and good company. Two doctors on board and a mortuary with two places. So that's my plan.
The problem is that the population pyramid changes to a column over the next 3 decades. Those elderly people are going to be supported by those lower down the pyramid one way or another.
http://www.kulzick.com/stu/ukpop.htm
That is how the UK (and much of the rest of the worlds population) changes over the next few years.
We should be banning contraception & encouraging teenage pregnancy.
Attacking ISA's.. well good luck with that. Noone is getting any interest.
Thoughts on a land value tax?
And 6% seems crazily small to me. Is there any country in the world that's even close to that?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2015-10-29
The population changes due to migration merely maintain the working age population, the real population increase is in the over 65's in general, and the over 85's in particular.
This is the bald truth, we can either plan for it, or stick our heads in the sand.
And I should have said 8%.
ISA limit per person should be capped. If you've got 200k squirrelled away... Surely we don't need to encourage you to save any more - you have plenty and you obviously don't need the encouragement!
I was abused a week ago for pointing out that Brexit Britain looks substantially like Wales.