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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With postal voting just starting CON maintains emphatic lead

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With postal voting just starting CON maintains emphatic lead

The ORB Poll for S Telegraph which was carried out BEFORE CON manifesto launch Con 46Lab 34LD 7UKIP 7

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited May 2017
    Thirst.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Second like the Tories
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Better than thought in reduction, if still 'low' compared to some others, but still convincing lead. Honestly I haven't seen that much coverage of this issue on the main news (eg BBC), so it'll need more pressing from Labour to see if they can force a bigger drop - this issue is their best chance to get Tories sub-10.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The LD share is shocking.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    I've just voted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Honestly I'd feel more comfortable with a bit large Tory lead, one so that Corbyn will get a result that he cannot defend and so will be forced out, and two, because I have high hopes of winning hundreds if the Hull seats go Blue, and I need a really big Tory majority for that.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    As I replied to Sunil, I would really like to see Theresa May's approval ratings end of next week. As the Prime Minister, she will still be leading and that too because she is faced by Corbyn.

    Ironically, they are both lucky to have each other as opponents.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kle4 said:

    Better than thought in reduction, if still 'low' compared to some others, but still convincing lead. Honestly I haven't seen that much coverage of this issue on the main news (eg BBC), so it'll need more pressing from Labour to see if they can force a bigger drop - this issue is their best chance to get Tories sub-10.

    You do realise these are both pre-manifesto fieldwork?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    Better than thought in reduction, if still 'low' compared to some others, but still convincing lead. Honestly I haven't seen that much coverage of this issue on the main news (eg BBC), so it'll need more pressing from Labour to see if they can force a bigger drop - this issue is their best chance to get Tories sub-10.

    You do realise these are both pre-manifesto fieldwork?
    I did not - saw one said before, silly eyes filled in the other as after.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Hope OGH isn't trolling ahead of the next 2 polls ready to put "but ones taken after the manifesto show etc....... such fun.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2017
    Woo, the Saturday night polling thread!

    First up, ORB: Oh no, only the same lead Blair got in 1997.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Eight minutes to go (if the 9:30 prediction was accurate)!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Hope OGH isn't trolling ahead of the next 2 polls ready to put "but ones taken after the manifesto show etc....... such fun.

    That's why you love my threads with their sober analysis, free of trolling, and replete with awesome betting tips.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    RobD said:

    Eight minutes to go (if the 9:30 prediction was accurate)!

    My source tells me 9.30pm or shortly thereafter.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    There's going to an awful lot of disappointed Tories here if the polls haven't narrowed. No, that's not a deliberate mistake - I actually believe it.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Hope OGH isn't trolling ahead of the next 2 polls ready to put "but ones taken after the manifesto show etc....... such fun.

    That's why you love my threads with their sober analysis, free of trolling, and replete with awesome betting tips.
    He's set it up too obviously ....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Hope OGH isn't trolling ahead of the next 2 polls ready to put "but ones taken after the manifesto show etc....... such fun.

    That's why you love my threads with their sober analysis, free of trolling, and replete with awesome betting tips.
    He's set it up too obviously ....
    Yes, no regular PB thread writer has mastered my ability to be subtle.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    :lol:

    The suspense in here over the incoming polls.

    It's going to be a damb squib
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Barnesian said:

    I've just voted.

    Is that the first one here?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    kle4 said:

    Honestly I'd feel more comfortable with a bit large Tory lead, one so that Corbyn will get a result that he cannot defend and so will be forced out, and two, because I have high hopes of winning hundreds if the Hull seats go Blue, and I need a really big Tory majority for that.


    The Labour voters who vote Labour despite their hatred of Corbyn will be like the Labour MPs who put him on the ballot in the 1st place...

    Regretting their decision when Corbyn remains and annihilates what's left of the party.

    Sane Labour members ironically need Labour to be monstered in this election. They need a Tory landslide. But can sit on their hands and accept it?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Jason said:

    There's going to an awful lot of disappointed Tories here if the polls haven't narrowed. No, that's not a deliberate mistake - I actually believe it.

    I think you're right - we were briefed before the budget many on the right would not like it, and I think some will be annoyed if the lead did not take a small hit as a result. That the social care stuff has stirred up the opposition as well, for all they have only a vague aim to counter it with, makes that even more likely, helpfully.

    If it should gods forbid show an increase in the lead - despite angry pensioners, disappointed right wingers, and wavering new Tories leaving in disgust - then add it to the list of things about the electorate and polling i know longer understand.
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 101
    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Sandpit said:

    Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.

    What about all those like them who will have since been told how horrible and meany it is?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    To add that the current threshold is £23k, and most councils will have you sell your home while you're alive to pay the care bills.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    Don''t remind me.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Sandpit said:

    Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.

    I am a big fan of Erdington conservatism so far.

    Not only is it grown up, sensible and about self sufficiency, it's strategically brilliant as it allows for a decent majority to be secured.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    Don''t remind me.
    You support the dippers, kle?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    They don't realise yet that Twitter isn't a ground game.

    Remember that poor student and his his ten bags of sand on JC the Messiah from earlier in the week?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    Don''t remind me.
    You support the dippers, kle?
    Alas, yes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.

    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Sandpit said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    To add that the current threshold is £23k, and most councils will have you sell your home while you're alive to pay the care bills.
    Yep - although the council in our case gave us time to sort out power of attorney so we could actually do that.

    In a strange twist of fate she died the day before the power of attorney actually arrived in post.

    Then straight on to probate.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    Unless they happen to be unlucky enough to live in the south.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    tick tock....
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    edited May 2017
    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2017

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.
    Unfortunately whenever I heard a statement like that now I just think of Cat Smith and the 'achievement' of losing Copeland.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    Labour Liverpool.....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.

    I am a big fan of Erdington conservatism so far.

    Not only is it grown up, sensible and about self sufficiency, it's strategically brilliant as it allows for a decent majority to be secured.
    Yep. There are some things May is proposing that I am not happy with at all. But this is one policy I think is very sensible indeed even though personally I am one of those who will probably lose out from it.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.

    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
    If you can't beat Boro at home, you don't deserve the top four. You'll beat them, TSE.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.
    Unfortunately whenever I heard a statement like that now I just think of Cat Smith and the 'achievement' of losing Copeland.
    We've got a top 4, nay a title winning first XI, but we've not got the squad depth.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

  • First ..... again!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
    PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics. :D

    I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    nunu said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    Unless they happen to be unlucky enough to live in the south.
    Should the rich be pleased Jeremy cares about passing on their wealth?

    Strange because Jezza and his trots want to soak the rich
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    same bloody effect.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.
    Unfortunately whenever I heard a statement like that now I just think of Cat Smith and the 'achievement' of losing Copeland.
    We've got a top 4, nay a title winning first XI, but we've not got the squad depth.
    Steady on. You've had a decent season finishing in the top four - but a title winning first XI? No, I don't think so.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    Ironically, the Tories will be against the perception thing.

    I remember in 1983 Labour in their manifesto had higher rates for high earners. It was not £80k but around the level where HRT started, when one woman said this worried her. Another woman told her that her husband did not earn anywhere near that figure, so why was she worried.

    She replied, "but, he could".

    The same woman today probably would say we worked for it all our lives and now they are going to take it away. Right or wrong, it is highly emotive.

    If I were a Labour canvasser, I would gently drop in the word "theft" and move to the next door.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/865996363414339584

    Interesting, and consistent with the Lib Dems' crap position in the polls. And Bath a key LD target, too.

    It would be wrong to change ones' view of the situation based on one person's opinion, but this guy seems to talk sense. Perhaps I am wrong and the Yellow team really are doing as badly in the country as the polls suggest?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    First ..... again!

    Ah the Diane Abbott school of mathematics I see :-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Sandpit said:



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
    PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics. :D

    I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!
    We Liverpool fans seem as over-represented here as LDs.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    nunu said:

    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    same bloody effect.
    its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......

    So, no
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Sandpit said:



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
    PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics. :D

    I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!
    I think you guys will get Top 4, I can't see you not beating Middlesborough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2017
    alex. said:

    What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?

    To be confirmed.

    In its first years, our service will require an additional £3 billion of public funds every year, enough to place a maximum limit on lifetime personal contributions to care costs, raise the asset threshold below which people are entitled to state support, and provide free end of life care. There are different ways the necessary monies can be raised. We will seek consensus on a cross-party basis about how it should be funded, with options including wealth taxes, an employer care contribution or a new social care levy
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764
    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    You are pleased that you have a £450,000 to support you in your old age, and that you'll have plenty to pass on to your children.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    What would you prefer to call it? A death duty? A charge on any poor sod unlucky enough to lose their marbles? A mugging of grannies who've worked hard and saved all their lives? An assault on the small c conservative lower middle classes?

    Answers on the back of a postcard, please.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    You're very happy that if the worst happens, your kids will still inherit £100k rather than £23k, and over the moon that you no longer have to inflict on your descendants the shit of disposing of your home and possessions while you're still alive.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,720
    Sandpit said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    To add that the current threshold is £23k, and most councils will have you sell your home while you're alive to pay the care bills.
    There is no threshold currently for Social Care at home which is what 80% of Social Care claimants receive.

    The house doesnt count as an Asset
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.

    Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.
    One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of em
    Mrs May is a bit Spursy?
    It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?
    To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.
    Unfortunately whenever I heard a statement like that now I just think of Cat Smith and the 'achievement' of losing Copeland.
    We've got a top 4, nay a title winning first XI, but we've not got the squad depth.
    Steady on. You've had a decent season finishing in the top four - but a title winning first XI? No, I don't think so.
    I thought Liverpool had a chance earlier in the season. Their squad is a bit thin, but I tend to agree that they're not quite as good as everyone thought. Next season will be a big test for Klopp, finishing in the Top Four should not be considered success for a club like Liverpool.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited May 2017
    nunu said:

    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    same bloody effect.
    I bought a bar of chocolate this morning and had to pay every bloody penny of the price out of my own pocket. Bloody Chocolate Tax.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Labour voters who hate Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting Labour because he can't win will just be increasing the likelihood that they will be giving themselves a future choice in an election between Corbyn and the Conservatives (only then in a position where he might actually win).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    SeanT said:

    As an aside, I did theorize a few days ago that what the Tories need is a faintly terrifying poll, showing Labour within striking distance, so everyone gets the collywobbles, and decides to
    opt for Theresa, Despite Everything, for Fear of Jeremy.

    People like my lefty journalist friend, who has gone back to Labour coz he thinks Jez can't possibly win. And wants to halt a Tory landslide.

    If he thought Jez *could* win, he would abstain, or even vote Tory.

    Oh absolutely. Anything that gets the idea that the race is narrowing into the news is to the advantage of the Conservatives.
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 101
    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Chances are it doesn't play out for me at all because there is a 5 in 6 chance that I won't need long term care (according to Mr. Meeks' figures in this morning's thread).
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    Emily Thornberry at Gower today. Labour throwing the kitchen sink at it. I did say a few days ago to watch that one for a shock. I got on at 6/1 Labour.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.

    I am a big fan of Erdington conservatism so far.

    Not only is it grown up, sensible and about self sufficiency, it's strategically brilliant as it allows for a decent majority to be secured.
    Yep. There are some things May is proposing that I am not happy with at all. But this is one policy I think is very sensible indeed even though personally I am one of those who will probably lose out from it.
    Ditto. In fact I'd possibly lose out twice - but my parents (neither of which went to uni and one of which grew up on one of the poorest council estates in Wales) have been lucky enough to experience massive house price inflation and I've been lucky enough to start and grow a successful business. I don't expect to get an easy ride; rainy days are what rainy day money is for.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
    PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics. :D

    I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!
    We Liverpool fans seem as over-represented here as LDs.
    I have some experience of Liverpool fans, as my old neighbour was one of them. He was more delusional than any politico I have ever met in my life. I often wondered what happened to him. He's probably in a straight jacket in a lunatic asylum, gibbering 'it...could...be...our...year...'
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Sandpit said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    To add that the current threshold is £23k, and most councils will have you sell your home while you're alive to pay the care bills.
    There is no threshold currently for Social Care at home which is what 80% of Social Care claimants receive.

    The house doesnt count as an Asset
    Out of interest, how much does social care at home cost on an annual basis?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
    We are guaranteed an Europa Cup spot unless we win the .... Europa Cup.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
    PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics. :D

    I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!
    We Liverpool fans seem as over-represented here as LDs.
    Um, I like Merseyrail and its Southern Railway-style 3rd rail electrification (and not too dissimilar to the Tube's 4th rail).
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    alex. said:

    What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?

    It is to create a National Care Service, for which 3 billion pounds is allocated from sources to be identified.

    There are 300,000 elderly in care homes at the moment. Average care homes fees per year are 30k. Paying just for those in care homes (and so not home care) will cost 9 billion pounds.

    (I am quite interested in a National Care Service, but Labour don't seem to have put much thought into how much it would cost, and where the money would come from).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    alex. said:

    Labour voters who hate Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting Labour because he can't win will just be increasing the likelihood that they will be giving themselves a future choice in an election between Corbyn and the Conservatives (only then in a position where he might actually win).

    Oh absolutely. But your typical voter's level of political analysis is not that deep.

    It's like chess, I suppose. Almost anyone can understand the basics, but few players are much good at (or even bother) thinking more than one or two moves ahead.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,571
    Sandpit said:

    Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.

    There is a difference between liking something and caring enough about something that you change your vote on the back of a reaction one way or another to something.

    An example is rail nationalisation. A lot of people want it, but typically transport only scores 3% or so when people are asked to name their top three issues.

    It's pensioners who are the people who are really going to care enough to change their vote if the perception sticks that the Conservatives are really having a go at pensioners. Probably also those approaching the ever receding state pension age (eg. in the case of WASPI women)

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    Opinion polls.... must have opinion polls...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    valleyboy said:

    Emily Thornberry at Gower today. Labour throwing the kitchen sink at it. I did say a few days ago to watch that one for a shock. I got on at 6/1 Labour.

    Give 'em hell, Emily. Just like you bested that creep Fallon.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Currently 41% of people with dementia (or their families) pay their care home costs in full. That is around £30,000 a year on average. In almost all cases it is necessary to sell the person's home to pay for it.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?

    To be confirmed.

    In its first years, our service will require an additional £3 billion of public funds every year, enough to place a maximum limit on lifetime personal contributions to care costs, raise the asset threshold below which people are entitled to state support, and provide free end of life care. There are different ways the necessary monies can be raised. We will seek consensus on a cross-party basis about how it should be funded, with options including wealth taxes, an employer care contribution or a new social care levy
    As I put it on the last thread:

    But in their own manifesto, they said (to paraphrase):

    1. Let's kick the can a little more.
    2. Let's be adults about this difficult subject.

    Now what we see is:

    1. Let's just have the State pay for it.
    2. #DEMENTIATAX OMG EEVIL BABYEATERS!!!!!!

    The reality is that:

    1. This will cost roughly 5p on income tax across all rates - they're not saying anything about this, just trying to add it to the other £60 something billion in uncosted expentidure in the Labour manifesto.
    2. What happened to being adults about this difficult subject?

    The Tory proposal might not be perfect, but let's all engage with the discussion to look at how it might be improved, rather than the screaming hysteria we've seen from certain quarters so far.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    alex. said:

    What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?

    It is to create a National Care Service, for which 3 billion pounds is allocated from sources to be identified.

    There are 300,000 elderly in care homes at the moment. Average care homes fees per year are 30k. Paying just for those in care homes (and so not home care) will cost 9 billion pounds.

    (I am quite interested in a National Care Service, but Labour don't seem to have put much thought into how much it would cost, and where the money would come from).
    The Magic Money Tree. Where else does Labour's money come from?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    surbiton said:



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
    We are guaranteed an Europa Cup spot unless we win the .... Europa Cup.
    You're a United fan aren't you? I think you guys will beat Ajax as well.

    Sadly, I think Wenger is going to be leaving us on a low, which isn't what I wanted for him. Chelsea are definitely winning the FA Cup.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Single digit lead Klaxon! 44/35
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Uff, that is a big change in a week.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: YouGov poll for Sunday Times is significant because the fieldwork is all after the Tory manifesto came out. The care policy is unpopular
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Cue the hysteria.............
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    44% still higher than Thatcher ever got, just Labour up too
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Dirty, nasty, sleazy, panic-stricken Tories on the slide !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited May 2017
    YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

    Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Boom, called it 4 weeks ago.

    Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Ishmael_Z said:

    nunu said:

    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    same bloody effect.
    I bought a bar of chocolate this morning and had to pay every bloody penny of the price out of my own pocket. Bloody Chocolate Tax.
    How many people do you reckon go to the shops and buy dementia?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    OUTLIER KLAXON
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    SeanT said:
    LO fecking L!!!
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Like Oscar Wilde, I am often quote myself, it adds splice to my conversation

    From a few days ago

    "I predict that at some point during the campaign, there'll be a poll - even 2 polls in succession - that appears temporarily to turn the picture upside down. And there will be joy on the left and gloom on the right. Then normality will reassert itself. "
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    surbiton said:



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
    We are guaranteed an Europa Cup spot unless we win the .... Europa Cup.
    I must say, I am shocked to find out that someone from Surbiton turned out to be a Man U fan.
This discussion has been closed.