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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2017
    First, like Theresa May's Conservatives.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Second, like Corbo!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Spreadex mid-point this morning is 388 seats for the Tories, that's a majority over 120.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    What were the spreads on May 8th 2015? Can anyone remember?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Polls and door-knocking results are out of sync.....

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2017
    Mortimer said:

    What were the spreads on May 8th 2015? Can anyone remember?

    They started off at 375, went quickly up to about 398 where they stayed within a couple of points for a while, and now back down to 388 over the past three days.

    Just after the local elections they would have been at the peak, around 397-398.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    FPT:

    YouGov - regional swings


    Con lead (diff 18/19 vs 16/17 May)

    Lon: -10 (-13)
    Sou: +22 (+1)
    Mid: +11 (+1)
    Nth: -14 (-11)
    Sc: +6 (-)

    Colour me sceptical - but there are some huge internal swings, while other regions haven't budged.....
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Why, when this one is clearly working?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    YouGov:

    Preventing a referendum on Scottish independence until after the Brexit process has been completed England (Scotland)
    Good idea : 55 (47)
    Wrong priority : 23 (37)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    FPT:

    YouGov - regional swings


    Con lead (diff 18/19 vs 16/17 May)

    Lon: -10 (-13)
    Sou: +22 (+1)
    Mid: +11 (+1)
    Nth: -14 (-11)
    Sc: +6 (-)

    Colour me sceptical - but there are some huge internal swings, while other regions haven't budged.....

    Excellent. London going Labour as I suspected.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    As Cameron might have said: Calm down, dear.

    FPT:

    There is a significant UKIP to Con swing in Labour-held constituencies in England and Wales north of the Wash-Severn line. This is likely to lead to massive Labour seat losses without necessarily any loss in GB % vote share, or even a net gain in Labour vote share if there is a swing to Labour in safe Labour seats in cosmopolitan metropolitan areas or safe Tory seats.

    There will still be a significant Tory majority. Don't forget 10-15 potential Tory gains from LD and SNP as well.

    Unless the Tory lead over Labour drops below 6% (that achieved in 2015), a Tory victory is nailed on.


  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Polls and door-knocking results are out of sync.....

    Just like in 2015....

    Can't wait for that exit poll on the bong of 10pm!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091

    FPT:

    YouGov - regional swings


    Con lead (diff 18/19 vs 16/17 May)

    Lon: -10 (-13)
    Sou: +22 (+1)
    Mid: +11 (+1)
    Nth: -14 (-11)
    Sc: +6 (-)

    Colour me sceptical - but there are some huge internal swings, while other regions haven't budged.....

    That just shows how statistically worthless these relatively small sub-samples are.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Conservative Landslide Klaxon :

    10 reasons :

    1. National Polls - Two party system returns. Look at the gap not the headline numbers.
    2. Regional polling awful in Labour marginals in the midlands and north.
    3. Differential turnout
    4. Leadership ratings.

    5. Jezza
    6. Jezza
    7. Jezza
    8. Jezza
    9. Jezza
    10 Jezza

    Rinse And Repeat
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    RobD said:

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Why, when this one is clearly working?
    Because Calum and others don't like it when their Indy hobby horse doesn't have a hope?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    What were the spreads on May 8th 2015? Can anyone remember?

    They started off at 375, went quickly up to about 398 where they stayed within a couple of points for a while, and now back down to 388 over the past three days.

    Just after the local elections they would have been at the peak, around 397-398.
    Wait for a few more polls and then probably cash out some time next week the sell positions taken out at peak Tory?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    JackW said:

    Conservative Landslide Klaxon :

    10 reasons :

    1. National Polls - Two party system returns. Look at the gap not the headline numbers.
    2. Regional polling awful in Labour marginals in the midlands and north.
    3. Differential turnout
    4. Leadership ratings.

    5. Jezza
    6. Jezza
    7. Jezza
    8. Jezza
    9. Jezza
    10 Jezza

    Rinse And Repeat

    Must say, you and your ARSE are a great comfort.... :smiley:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    YouGov - regional swings


    Con lead (diff 18/19 vs 16/17 May)

    Lon: -10 (-13)
    Sou: +22 (+1)
    Mid: +11 (+1)
    Nth: -14 (-11)
    Sc: +6 (-)

    Colour me sceptical - but there are some huge internal swings, while other regions haven't budged.....

    Excellent. London going Labour as I suspected.
    Which will help keep Corbyn in place......
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Damien Green Having A Mare On Marr.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.

    Exactly. And 9 points well distributed could still be enough for a hefty win.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.

    I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Andrew Marr doing well against Damian Green.
  • peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109
    I think we should be very careful in assuming the winter fuel and social care proposals were signed off by Lynton Crosby. There is a lot of chatter around that this was Nick Timothys idea and fiercely resisted with Mrs May overriding the deep concerns there were about it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    RobD said:

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Why, when this one is clearly working?
    10 point lead in Scotland for 'no referendum until Brexit completed......'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    Conservative Landslide Klaxon :

    10 reasons :

    1. National Polls - Two party system returns. Look at the gap not the headline numbers.
    2. Regional polling awful in Labour marginals in the midlands and north.
    3. Differential turnout
    4. Leadership ratings.

    5. Jezza
    6. Jezza
    7. Jezza
    8. Jezza
    9. Jezza
    10 Jezza

    Rinse And Repeat

    Must say, you and your ARSE are a great comfort.... :smiley:
    Jack's ARSE has been a great comfort to a great many.....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    @YBarddCwsc Yes, last night a lot of those themes were discussed re the unpopularity of any social care policy. I think the trouble is, as noted by another PBer that the solution May had chosen isn't great - I've already said what I think would be a better path to go down so I won't go into that again. I also think that it's not just that she's tackling social care now, but all the other things she's pursuing related to the Baby Boomers. On top of that, as a young person I don't see what she is doing to help my generation/the working population, which is apparently what the shift away from the baby boomers in terms of state benefits is supposed to be about.

    I quoted some rough figures to show the cost of what you suggested (National Care Service).

    The money required is daunting.

    I like the idea of a National Care Service, but it is clear that it will require something like a minimum of 3p on income tax.

    I am not a tribal voter, I am interested in policy that is properly costed. I think it is up to May’s critics to provide a better & costed policy.
    There is also the question of how providing the care is best organised and managed. Whatever your view of local authorities, there is no doubt that carrying the burden of spiralling care costs whilst their funding is being cut has had a very serious impact on local councils, which has knocked on to cuts in many other completely unrelated service areas. Local authorities don't have any meaningful way of raising money to meet these rising costs and, without significant change to local government funding arrangements, there are arguments for at least exploring alternative structures.
    Ian, that is another good point that has not been discussed.

    Changes have to come to social care funding, as it is consuming ever greater fractions of local authority budgets.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    Must say, you and your ARSE are a great comfort.... :smiley:

    Tis not the ARSE but plain common sense for anyone with more than two brain cells or 750bn if you are Diane Abbott.
  • OpenSeasOpenSeas Posts: 7
    edited May 2017
    Keep an eye on the tables, Mike. Tories still as far ahead as ever with older voters. What you've witnessed is a 5% boost for Labour among youngers off back of Labour manifesto. Not enough to win it for Labour, but that's what's closed the gap. Presumably Tories still have option of selling their social care policy as not dumping on youngers or people in north whose house equity is much lower (ie can keep last £100K instead £23K).

    Then again, Tories may be best off just changing the subject on to something else!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited May 2017
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Must say, you and your ARSE are a great comfort.... :smiley:

    Tis not the ARSE but plain common sense for anyone with more than two brain cells or 750bn if you are Diane Abbott.
    Just wanted to sneak in a little compliment about your ARSE. For old times' sake. :p
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Polls and door-knocking results are out of sync.....

    In what way?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.

    Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    How many people with Alzheimer's are being cared for by the state in their own home?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    What were the spreads on May 8th 2015? Can anyone remember?

    They started off at 375, went quickly up to about 398 where they stayed within a couple of points for a while, and now back down to 388 over the past three days.

    Just after the local elections they would have been at the peak, around 397-398.
    Wait for a few more polls and then probably cash out some time next week the sell positions taken out at peak Tory?
    @TSE bought at 378 and just cashed out at 393 - at £40 a seat :o

    I didn't get on at the start, am waiting for the price to drop a little more before buying - for somewhat more modest stakes!

    @TSE did mention one more possible black swan which is a charge in the Thanet expenses case next week - I'm not convinced it will be too much of a story but it's another possibility for a spike down in the spread.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    Should they make it as broad as this??

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.

    Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.

    The people who should be most worried about where this election is going are the moderates in the Labour Party.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I've have taken the view that a dementia tax should be immediately applied to PB Tory bedwetters as they clearly qualify ....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Marr: vast secret inheritance tax.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,752
    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Does mocking up headlines in Word count as fake news?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited May 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:
    » show previous quotes
    The reason for c) is that people have the expectation that the NHS should cover mental health issues like dementia and that they have already been paying for it all their lives.

    For chronic illnesses of frailty (whether mental or physical) there has been a shift to care outside the hospital, but no recognition that this really means paying for it yourself.


    That's right.

    If we accept the principle of the NHS that the cost of ill health (which is mainly a lottery) is shared (with the option going private for higher quality), then we should also accept the principle that that the cost of frailty including dementia should be shared in the same way.

    It is a form of insurance. The most effective insurer is the government (the US system is twice as expensive) with the premiums paid out of general taxation.

    Since 1979, there has been a race to the bottom in rates of personal taxation. First it was funded out of North Sea oil, then privatisations. These were oneoffs - the family silver. We are rapidly running out of family silver.

    The options are (a) an increase in personal taxation (b) an influx of hundreds of thousands of well educated young healthy immigrants who pay tax and consume less services, or (c) a growing number of very unhappy pensioners and their families.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I see that Damian Green's Marr interview is proceeding in a manner not entirely to his advantage
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RobD said:

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Why, when this one is clearly working?
    SNP support firming up at c.45% - amazingly SLAB showing resilience - SCON could still come 3rd in vote % !
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Does mocking up headlines in Word count as fake news?
    Well, they repeat one of them 3 times and another one at least twice.

    Maybe Sturgeon hasn't been talking about independence enough?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    tlg86 said:

    Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.

    I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.
    Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.

    While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    calum said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Why, when this one is clearly working?
    SNP support firming up at c.45% - amazingly SLAB showing resilience - SCON could still come 3rd in vote % !
    Firming up based on what?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited May 2017
    The discrepancy between two bookies' Over/Under Labour Total Seats currently provides an attractive betting opportunity:

    Stake 6 units with Hills on Labour winning > 162.5 seats
    Stake 6 units with Betfair Sportsbook on Labour winning < 176.5 seats

    Maximum loss is therefore 1 unit (i.e 6 units lost - 5 units won). BUT should Labour win between 163 seats and 176 seats, a highly promising prospect covering a range of 13 seats, then both bets pay out, providing a combined profit of 10 units against a maximum combined loss, as above, of 1 unit i.e. effective odds therefore of 10/1 ..... hurry though this can't last!
    DYOR.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2017
    Green promising a green paper on health and social care in the summer.

    McIRA up next.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    The Labour 2015 retention numbers continue to firm up while the Tories' one is down thanks to Tory pensioners saying "undecided".

    It's like a mini-version of the 2012 budget where the pensioners' tax allowance was withdrawn. They drifted away but came back for the 2015 vote. Three years condensed into three weeks with these policies, the reaction and the imminent vote.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sandpit said:

    Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.

    I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all

    GE2017 has certainly become a little less dull, but the basics are little changed, the Tories are on course to increase their majority and Labour look set to save a few more of their MPs.

    Betting on constituency outcomes just got very complicated, I think I'll stick to lost deposits.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Marr: you gonna rethink?
    Green: nope.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2017
    tlg86 said:

    On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.

    Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.

    The people who should be most worried about where this election is going are the moderates in the Labour Party.
    Again, as I literally said in the post the idea it will be easy to shift Corbyn in the event of a massive loss in regard to vote share is a fallacy argument.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091
    Sandpit said:

    Green promising a green paper on health and social care in the summer.

    McIRA up next.

    Some general hints he may be picking up the organisational issue I flagged at the end of the last thread
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, indeed, damned foolish to throw in an unexamined policy in a highly emotive area just a few weeks before polling day.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    JackW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.

    I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.
    He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.

    McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.

    I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.
    Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.

    While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.
    I don't know about the workings of the Labour Party, but I wouldn't underestimate Corbyn and his mob's ability to hang on.

    As for why the election was called, actually I think one of the bigger reasons was so that we now don't have to have an election for five more years which will help with Brexit. Furthermore, if things go well in Scotland, it will put the SNP back in their box.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    timmo said:

    Polls and door-knocking results are out of sync.....

    In what way?
    Door some door knocking of your own and you'll find out!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091

    tlg86 said:

    Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.

    I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.
    Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.

    While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.
    And to buy two extra years for the economy and/or Brexit to go bad.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676
    RobD said:

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Why, when this one is clearly working?
    One useless MP and a handful of list place MSP's losers slots. You have high standards Rob.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Yougov's internal numbers are still very strong for the Conservatives, and consistent with a big lead on the day.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Why, when this one is clearly working?
    One useless MP and a handful of list place MSP's losers slots. You have high standards Rob.
    For now. :p
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    If the polls get tighter expect all out war on Corbyn in the way Miliband was targeted. Nothing at all for May to worry about, her attack dogs will see to that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Does mocking up headlines in Word count as fake news?
    They are faker than 3 bob bits
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091
    edited May 2017

    Mr. Sandpit, indeed, damned foolish to throw in an unexamined policy in a highly emotive area just a few weeks before polling day.

    They can now ignore the House of Pensioners and push it through.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2017

    The discrepancy between two bookies' Over/Under Labour Total Seats currently provides an attractive betting opportunity:

    Stake 6 units with Hills on Labour winning > 162.5 seats
    Stake 6 units with Betfair Sportsbook on Labour winning < 176.5 seats

    Maximum loss is therefore 1 unit (i.e 6 units lost - 5 units won). BUT should Labour win between 163 seats and 176 seats, a highly promising prospect covering a range of 13 seats, then both bets pay out, providing a combined profit of 10 units against a maximum combined loss, as above, of 1 unit i.e. effective odds therefore of 10/1 ..... hurry though this can't last!
    DYOR.

    That under 176.5 looks nice doesn't it?

    Could be worth looking on oddschecker where the Tories have been pushed out and backing them

    The exchange has EVS under 177.5
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Well quite:

    Some Labour activists are concerned that the suspensions in Aberdeen will have repercussions in next month’s general election. Labour’s last surviving Scottish MP in the 2015 SNP landslide was the member for Edinburgh South, Ian Murray. Even he would concede that among those who returned him to Westminster two years ago were a number of those who might traditionally have voted Tory. Will those same voters feel so happy supporting a Labour candidate now they know that party views them with such contempt?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-dugdale-blunders-with-suspension-of-disbelief-1-4452123
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    I doubt Crosby's plan was to go to "landslide" via "twitchy underwear" any more than Dunkirk was part of the plan for Normandy.

    Curbing pensioner benefits after all the shelter they've had is morally right "all in it together" etc. The long term care situation also needs looking at for all our sakes so we will benefit from it being now firmly on the agenda. The essentials of the route they have chosen is that hateful word "progressive" in that rich southerners are going to be the supply of money for poor northerners at its most blunt. Ok they have chosen to individualise the risk which is a further choice but someone in a two up two down in Salford benefits over a £5m pad owner in Chelsea.

    But thrice but, as an act of salesmanship, it's dire. These are a "masterclass" in creating doubt and fear. Marr is roasting Damian Green right now as to what level the WFA cuts will kick in. Nail on head - is it pensioners on 30k, 20k, 10k? So McDonnell can't miss can he as 12m are now in doubt and he can say he's protecting poor old ladies on 6k from freezing to death rather than having to defend (say) handing out cash to folk on 30k who spend it on a winter break in Marbella.

    Ditto long term care. As I said at it's heart "progressive" (though risk is not pooled which is v odd) but it's way way too complex to explain on the doorstep two and a half weeks before an election. All folk hear is "they're taking my house if I'm ill, sort of, aren't they?". People are very very very emotive about their homes. You can use all the logic you like they won't listen, they'll just go into defence mode.

    Facts are largely irrelevant "it's perception stupid ". If you are explaining you're losing. The Tories are explaining a lot on this, even as Labour's own policies are collectively "moon on a stick".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091
    Labour is sensibly trying to send either McDonnell or Gardiner to every interview.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676
    Scott_P said:

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    Should they make it as broad as this??

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
    They are as fake as that video for sure.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.

    I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.
    Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.

    While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.
    I wouldn't underestimate Corbyn and his mob's ability to hang on.
    We're counting on it.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Sandpit said:

    JackW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.

    I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.
    He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.

    McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.
    Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Sandpit said:

    Green promising a green paper on health and social care in the summer.

    McIRA up next.

    He is not likeable is he?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    McDonnell reckons his £25bn extra borrowing - for current spending - with be 'cost neutral' due to extra growth. This before he gets on to his 'investment' in nationalised industries.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I'm sure PBers have intuitively stocked up their pantries with popcorn and indeed will have been racing in that direction during the Marr/Green debacle.

    And oh what fun Andrew Neil will have in the leaders interviews.

    First up the PM. Tomorrow BBC1 7-7:30pm .... titter .... :smiley:

    POPCORN SHARES .... BUY BUY BUY
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120

    Why, when this one is clearly working?
    Because Calum and others don't like it when their Indy hobby horse doesn't have a hope?
    Village idiot out to play
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Sandpit said:

    JackW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.

    I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.
    He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.

    McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.
    Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?

    I thought the whole point was that there wasn't need for such schemes, and the cost would only be recouped from the estate?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091

    Well quite:

    Some Labour activists are concerned that the suspensions in Aberdeen will have repercussions in next month’s general election. Labour’s last surviving Scottish MP in the 2015 SNP landslide was the member for Edinburgh South, Ian Murray. Even he would concede that among those who returned him to Westminster two years ago were a number of those who might traditionally have voted Tory. Will those same voters feel so happy supporting a Labour candidate now they know that party views them with such contempt?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-dugdale-blunders-with-suspension-of-disbelief-1-4452123

    It amazes me that any sort of Labour-Tory or Tory-Labour tactical voting in the middle of a hard fought GE is particularly likely in the first place. But I am not Scottish so what do I know?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,583
    tlg86 said:

    On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.

    Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.

    The people who should be most worried about where this election is going are the moderates in the Labour Party.
    And anyone else who'd like to see an even marginally effective opposition.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:


    They are as fake as that video for sure.

    The video isn't fake Malky. That is actually what she said, in the order she said it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    JackW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.

    I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.
    He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.

    McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.
    Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?

    I thought the whole point was that there wasn't need for such schemes, and the cost would only be recouped from the estate?
    As local authorities do for residential care now.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    John McDonnell back on this morning reminding me why i could never vote labour with him and corbyn in charge
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.

    I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.
    Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.

    While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.
    I don't know about the workings of the Labour Party, but I wouldn't underestimate Corbyn and his mob's ability to hang on.

    As for why the election was called, actually I think one of the bigger reasons was so that we now don't have to have an election for five more years which will help with Brexit. Furthermore, if things go well in Scotland, it will put the SNP back in their box.
    I'm not underestimating it - I've said they'll be difficult to shift. But it's unclear as to what will happen post election, we will have to wait and see. YG has produced polling showing that in the case of defeat, the membership does believe Corbyn should resign, but his keyboard warriors want Labour to be a protest group forever. We all see which tendency Labour leans towards after the election.

    The Brexit factor may have been part of it, but that factor was there even when May was telling us she wasn't going to call an early election. I don't think May cares about the SNP, it fairly obvious as per the polling that Scottish independence is not popular right now. The SNP isn't likely to be put in their box for as long as they are Scotland's biggest party which they will be after this GE.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Sandpit said:

    McDonnell reckons his £25bn extra borrowing - for current spending - with be 'cost neutral' due to extra growth. This before he gets on to his 'investment' in nationalised industries.

    Ah trickle down, nice.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    In what fucked up world would you borrow a quarter of a trillion pounds to buy back privatised industries - rather than spend it on health, education, housing.....
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    "certainly more than 100"

    I was happy if there was a 50 majority when this was announced
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    JackW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.

    I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.
    He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.

    McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.
    Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?

    I thought the whole point was that there wasn't need for such schemes, and the cost would only be recouped from the estate?
    Hee Haw Hee Haw
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    McDonnell: "you borrow the money...."

    Green: "exactly!"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    HaroldO said:

    Sandpit said:

    McDonnell reckons his £25bn extra borrowing - for current spending - with be 'cost neutral' due to extra growth. This before he gets on to his 'investment' in nationalised industries.

    Ah trickle down, nice.
    Surely nationalisation is trickle up?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Sandpit said:

    JackW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.

    I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.
    He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.

    McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.
    Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?

    No but there was talk of "consultation and Green Paper". If they still get in the turkey will be taken out and shot and will emerge as a fowl of a different feather.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Extra popcorn needed for these two arguing with each other! (Green and McDonnell).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676
    Scott_P said:
    Labour desperate to be seen as red Tories, you could not make it up.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.

    Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.

    The people who should be most worried about where this election is going are the moderates in the Labour Party.
    And anyone else who'd like to see an even marginally effective opposition.
    Well yes. The people who have spent time calling anyone who questions them on Brexit a quisling and a traitor want Britain to be one Party state forever.....

    A bad opposition leads to bad government, as is being proved now and in the past
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    welshowl said:


    I doubt Crosby's plan was to go to "landslide" via "twitchy underwear" any more than Dunkirk was part of the plan for Normandy.

    Curbing pensioner benefits after all the shelter they've had is morally right "all in it together" etc. The long term care situation also needs looking at for all our sakes so we will benefit from it being now firmly on the agenda. The essentials of the route they have chosen is that hateful word "progressive" in that rich southerners are going to be the supply of money for poor northerners at its most blunt. Ok they have chosen to individualise the risk which is a further choice but someone in a two up two down in Salford benefits over a £5m pad owner in Chelsea.

    But thrice but, as an act of salesmanship, it's dire. These are a "masterclass" in creating doubt and fear. Marr is roasting Damian Green right now as to what level the WFA cuts will kick in. Nail on head - is it pensioners on 30k, 20k, 10k? So McDonnell can't miss can he as 12m are now in doubt and he can say he's protecting poor old ladies on 6k from freezing to death rather than having to defend (say) handing out cash to folk on 30k who spend it on a winter break in Marbella.

    Ditto long term care. As I said at it's heart "progressive" (though risk is not pooled which is v odd) but it's way way too complex to explain on the doorstep two and a half weeks before an election. All folk hear is "they're taking my house if I'm ill, sort of, aren't they?". People are very very very emotive about their homes. You can use all the logic you like they won't listen, they'll just go into defence mode.

    Facts are largely irrelevant "it's perception stupid ". If you are explaining you're losing. The Tories are explaining a lot on this, even as Labour's own policies are collectively "moon on a stick".

    :+1:

    This policy stank of polling disaster from the moment Theresa May stood up to launch the manifesto.

    The perception is generally awful by sounds of it. Although bit of a mixed response in my own family. Several terrified by the sound of it all - "losing control of our homes", one or two saying "let's wait for the detail".

    I think the latter are being highly naive.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676
    IanB2 said:

    Well quite:

    Some Labour activists are concerned that the suspensions in Aberdeen will have repercussions in next month’s general election. Labour’s last surviving Scottish MP in the 2015 SNP landslide was the member for Edinburgh South, Ian Murray. Even he would concede that among those who returned him to Westminster two years ago were a number of those who might traditionally have voted Tory. Will those same voters feel so happy supporting a Labour candidate now they know that party views them with such contempt?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-dugdale-blunders-with-suspension-of-disbelief-1-4452123

    It amazes me that any sort of Labour-Tory or Tory-Labour tactical voting in the middle of a hard fought GE is particularly likely in the first place. But I am not Scottish so what do I know?
    It highlights the dearth of talent in Tories and Labour in Scotland, both so bereft they have to help each other manage their drubbings.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Blimey they are really going at each other.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    MaxPB said:

    HaroldO said:

    Sandpit said:

    McDonnell reckons his £25bn extra borrowing - for current spending - with be 'cost neutral' due to extra growth. This before he gets on to his 'investment' in nationalised industries.

    Ah trickle down, nice.
    Surely nationalisation is trickle up?
    Hehe, I was being facetious. It's more of a massive gamble.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    Labour desperate to be seen as red Tories, you could not make it up.
    Err, isn't it that Lab Donor is disappointed that SLAB are not red Tories?
This discussion has been closed.