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So not the best indicator.
Elections are decided in the places lower division clubs play:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables
Oh, that's right, they're all remain areas.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/39987278
Afternoon all.
I am just back from Turf Moor after a weekend up north. Watching this messageboard over the weekend was reminiscent of every major campaign I have witnessed on politicalbetting.com, there is a wobble for the leading side in the campaign and key supporters of that side go a little over the top.
Now I am not an expert on the social care policy or social care infrastructure more generally. I am pleased a major party is considering the topic and I can see some positives and negatives in the Conservative plan. I do accept it has not been a narrative success for the party; anything that can be labelled a 'dementia tax' and this label not be laughed out of court as ridiculous is clearly a challenge for the party in question. Speaking to some older voters myself over the weekend they were bemused and not comfortable with the social care policy. That said I don't think it would wobble their support for the Conservatives. The WFA changes and triple lock changes were less of a concern, there was an acceptance the existing systems cannot continue indefinitely.
More generally on the polls this weekend we must remember:
- Polls are snapshots not predictions.
- On leadership, economic competence and Brexit the Conservatives lead on polling.
- There are three weeks to go campaigning, I cannot see issues with social care dominating the media for that time period. I imagine the Conservatives will discuss consultation on the wider details of the social care plan and this will assist them in managing the narrative.
- We seem to be on the verge of a return to two party politics. As such the gap between Conservatives/Labour is more important than their baseline voting figure. This gap has narrowed, but seemingly it is less a loss of Conservative support and more Labour gaining.
- Next the Conservatives are being critiqued, yet still have a vote percentage higher than Blair/Thatcher achieved. Also I think the 20 point lead at the start of the campaign was never going to be maintained. People were not thinking politics then, moreover the chance of a Tory landslide will solidify tribal voters who don't like the Conservatives. Moreover, however bad Corbyn is (and he is) how often do you get a 20 point gap in UK politics? Especially for a governing party, 7 years in power? Blair didn't get that beating a tired government of 18 years.
Ultimately, regardless of the majority Mrs May gains (and I think it will be considerably higher than she has now) she gains two more years to manage Brexit, a likely larger majority, can jettison unrealistic tax promises, and begin to change the party's political position. Not bad.
In short. Conservative supporters should keep calm and carry on.
I expect the blues to go very dirty for 2 weeks.
He is a wise man and backs Lancashire's finest!
The Tories are on 46-48 with eight of the ten pollsters (Ipsos 49, Yougov 44).
Labour are 33-35 with six out of ten, but 28-30 with the other four.
House effects are definitely in play.
Listening to a few radio news reports today it sounded as if you will only be left with £100k if you need care - ie you would only be allowed to keep £100k irrespective of how much care you need.
It didn't actuially say that if you have a £300k house you would only keep £100k if your care bill is £200k.
The above may sound blindingly obvious to people on here but not necessarily to someone just hearing brief news headlines.
So I suspect the biggest problem for May is that people are now fearing a far, far worse financial outcome than is remotely likely given their own actual circumstances.
And the above is before even considering that the existing position for residential care is even worse - again something most people won't have had a clue about.
Well done to Bombay.... by only 1 run.
Amazing final over.
Perhaps they should have stipulated a maximum care charge of say £100k in addition to the £100k you are guaranteed to keep.
People will ALWAYS fear the worst with policies like this. Doesn't matter how much you reassure when it comes to taking things away from people (especially their homes) it's always going to be a nightmare to explain.
They should've just said something "wishy washy" about a royal commission and consultation on the social care crisis with implementation in 18 months and left it that...
I suspect arrogance and complanceny has caused most of this. They thought because their lead is so large and Jezza is LOTO the normal rules of politics don't apply.
Journalists' brains show a lower-than-average level of executive functioning, according to a new study, which means they have a below-average ability to regulate their emotions, suppress biases, solve complex problems, switch between tasks, and show creative and flexible thinking.
http://www.businessinsider.com/journalists-brains-function-at-a-lower-level-than-average-2017-5
May is going to win on the promise of statist social democratic economic policies. Your kids inheritance is going to be raided. And - other than Tax exile- you have nowhere to go.
Now you all know how it feels to be in an elite out of touch minority!
Suck it up!
Pathetic fans who love frightening women and children..
It's just like educational attainment and the Leave/Remain vote (also a decent correlation).
Leave voters = thick sh*ts!
Remain voters = clever folk.
9. General election 2017: Tories 'won't look again' at social care plans
Sophy Ridge of Sky News appears to be the heroine of the hour (asking the Jezziah SIX TIMES to renounce the IRA and all its works).
A funny take on the subject:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=DXWdJtInOj0
Almost switching off already.
In fairness, I've done a wee bit of that myself - before the logical brain gained the ascendancy over the lizard brain and common sense reasserted itself. Not because I thought it was too Left - I'm quite receptive to some Left ideas about housing, for example - but because I worried that it might do huge damage to the Tories, whom I'm keen on this time particularly because I want Corbyn and friends kept as far away from power as possible. Having considered, amongst other things, the basic point that you just made - i.e. that the wealthy really have nowhere else to go - I am now feeling a bit calmer again.
Nothing much down thread apart from more about social care, and football. Football. Yawn. Time for dinner methinks.
As Private Eye puts it, Tory policies as they are framed for many markets are essentially "Foreign relations: Jeremy Corbyn is Lab leader; Domestic policy: Jeremy Corbyn is Lab leader; Defence: Jeremy Corbyn is Lab leader; Economy: Jeremy Corbyn is Lab leader".
Has any party ever won a British general election because its leader achieved martyr status? I doubt that Tory strategists are scared even a little bit that Labour may be able to turn anti-Corbyn hate month to their advantage. It's bare the fangs and "Kill kill kill for the queen" time.
I thought that becoming an IMF puppet was likely if EdM had succeeded, but I don't think that there's even the slightest question about a possible Corbyn government - they may as well just call in the IMF from day one.
Actually not sure which are worse in the evolutionary tree. Some journos are scum.
Whilst lots of people on here seem to think it's all a great laugh I think it's at least possible that this could get very serious for the Conservatives indeed.
All the talk about Con getting a majority of 100 or 150 and winning seats like Bolsover - well a Con Majority of any kind is now available at 1.11 on Betfair.
We are now in a position where large numbers of people are thinking they may lose the majority of their inheritance and they are going to be scared stiff.
The fact they are completely mistaken - because there is literally almost zero chance of in-home care costs running into hundreds of thousands of pounds - is completely irrelevant.
People have now got it into their heads and once someone thinks something they keep thinking it.
I'd love the UK to push through massive cuts in public spending and tax, and regulation.
But, I accept the British people are entitled to opt for May's soft social democracy, if that's what they prefer.
Indeed there may not be an answer (as of now) - because the Con manifesto may not be clear on the issue.
If so, it would be further confirmation of how absurd a situation May has got herself into.