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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation phone poll has CON lead down 10 points in a week to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation phone poll has CON lead down 10 points in a week to 9% now
Since TMay launched her CON manifesto last Thursday we have had just three published polls where all or part of the fieldwork took place afterwards – the Sunday Times YouGov, the Mail on Sunday Survation online poll and now, this morning, a Survation phone poll for Good Morning Britain.
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I doubt this morning's front pages are causing undue distress in Downing St.....
From Survation - while Lab leads on the NHS & education, in some other areas they're well behind:
Which party has better policies for...
...managing the economy:
Con: 48
Lab: 19
....making you better off personally:
Con: 35
Lab: 26
....best vision for Britain:
Con: 39
Lab: 26
.....securing the best Brexit deal:
Con: 50
Lab: 13
And finally, if you had to choose, of the following leaders who would you rather go on a dinner date with?
May: 31
Corbyn: 19
Is this a fresh panel or d they survey the same voters again?
It'd be interesting to see if we're seeing direct Con > Lab switchers or Don't Know > Labour
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/nhs-nurse-confronted-nicola-sturgeon-tv-debate-smeared-snp/
The spin room segment is coming to an end, and it is worth noting that even a cursory glance through Twitter shows that SNP apparatchiks and politicians are ramping up the anti-BBC rhetoric, a decent sign they don't think the debate went their way tonight.
There's already a burgeoning conspiracy theory about our star of the show, the struggling nurse, who according to some online was featured in a previous Question Time show in Edinburgh.
The SNP seem decidedly unhappy about the nature of the debate and its apparent focus on devolved issues.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/live-blog-scottish-leaders-tv-debate-1-4452534
There is also now a Northern Ireland Labour Party branch but Labour's HQ won't let them stand in elections.
Baxterisation with Scotland 43/29/19
Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6, SNP 49 , PC 3, NI 18.
Another 1% swing to Labour, both Con and Lab will add 5 seats to GE2015 seats.
"The Tories will no doubt win.
But many of us would never conceive of voting Tory. Not ever.
A sensible alternative would be to vote Green or LibDem, and some no doubt will.
But our politics is essentially polarised.
So Labour may not do as badly as might be necessary to shed its dingleberry."
Of GE2015 voters. Con 86.7%, Lab 83.6%.
Another one: apparently over 88% of 55+ age voters certain to vote. Really ?
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015
The regional subsets are settling down to their expected norms. It will be interesting what a proper Welsh poll coming out today with fieldwork after the Con manifesto launch has to reveal.
Survation puts Wales: Con 31, Lab 50. London: Con 39, Lab 46. North: Con 38, Lab 47.
General question: Are Nurses all over the UK going to food banks ? Even 5% of them.
That would be awful. I know our nurses are not well paid. But going to Food Banks ?
But regardless, if the gap is 9% and the GE2015 gap was 7%, this is to be expected. Due to the Tories doubling their votes in Scotland, Labour are now probably doing as well as GE2015 in England.
All two of us ....
Now who's on this mornings Conservative bedwetters shift today?
Sell their house to pay nurse to change the sheets. That will sort them...
So I would guess Cons 30-35 and Lab 40-45 - I also expect UKIP & LDs have cratered which just leaves a big question mark over Plaid.....?
Labour Uncut got the result of the last election pretty close. I would like to see more on their methodology and sources but there is no reason to think they are making this analysis up.
This may of course be subject to change if the polls really are altering, but it is worth pointing out even the best polls for Labour have them nine points behind ambling along in the low thirties.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/866405314756849665
I would love to imagine what he could do sober but he hasn't been for years so there seems little point.
In my opinion, it would have been an unnecessary GE.
However, here in Canada all I am reading is about Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbotts IRA links and this is coming from all the media including the broadcast and not CCHQ. It does look very bad and I think this could become the next story.
I understand TM is in Wales today and is going to go big time on Brexit, with only 11 days after the election to the start of negotiations and she is due to announce her rejection of the 100 billion EU ransom demand. She will no doubt bring in immigration and taking back our laws.
Acting hard on the EU will firm up her UKIP support.
Jezza GAIN Maidenhead
A single person can't claim income support if they earn more than around £15,000 and the starting salary for a nurse in Scotland, the very minimum is £16,132 (RCN)
After a years service and more qualifications their salary would start to increase.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
Elsewhere, the effect of a large net gain of Ukip voters holds, so I have nothing new to report.
And I still don't believe the gap between the parties is as close as is, all of a sudden, being indicated. Certainly if it's that easy to turn the heads of the public with a manifesto that basically promises a free pony for every reader then the template is established for next time.
Simply pledge to print £200 trillion and give it away. Job done.
Today's expected Wales only poll will be interesting. Last one exactly 2 weeks ago had: Con 41, Lab 35.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/22/jeremy-corbyn-labour-anti-austerity-manifesto
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
1. They are wrong, like they were last time
2. A much greater proportion of the electorate than I previously thought are infantilised idiots, i.e. I haven't a bloody clue what's going on in this country anymore
Under those circumstances, which way would you jump?
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper
Now, I think that view's dead wrong. But I cannot really blame some people for feeling it, and wouldn't call them 'infantilised idiots'.
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/11/23/brexit-immigration-cut-will-cost-uk-billions-every-year
And TM is due to say so today
I think one lesson we do need to learn from 2015 (and should have learned after 1992 and 1970) is that polls are noise. It's ever so exciting when they seem to tell us what we want to hear, but they are vague guidelines only. The key message we can take from them right now is that Labour are a long way behind on every key measure including voting intention. A lot of their supporters also seem to be habitual non-voters which may well be artificially inflating their figure.
What we do know is that Corbyn, as a rather dim and unpleasant member of the metropolitan elite, is fundamentally toxic in large swathes of the country, and while Theresa May not be loved, she is generally respected (except of course by Labour fanatics who are fuming at the shellacking she is about to give them). That's why there seems a real risk she will hammer them to pieces in a perfect storm election (and is of course whatever her public pronouncements the reason she is holding one).
The resulting panic at the possible scale of Labour's defeat is I think a large part of the reason why they've suddenly turned as a group into such utterly loathsome bullies (and I have a very particular reason for being angry about this which I unfortunately can't share in public because it may end up as a professional misconduct charge for the person in question). The more they protest they can still win and snarl at others, the more it proves their terror. For those Labour posters like SO and Rochdale Pioneers who are still behaving like fine human beings - you have my sympathy.
What effect that wil have if Labour are slaughtered and he had genuinely thought he might win, a la Hilary, I don't know and don't like to think of.
Constant questions on the IRA, his Marxist beliefs, his anti UK attitude and sending subs out with no weapons, in front of a mainly unfriendly TV audience will see him spark - he will not be able to help himself