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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay U-turns on her controversial manifesto social care policy
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay U-turns on her controversial manifesto social care policy
Theresa May’s 9 U-turns https://t.co/5rfqideq4d
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Mr Corbyn
Mr Farron
... errr....
At least she didn't carve her original proposals in stone.
Tomorrow's headline, today.
Are you still a Tory Mr Eagles?
A full u turn would be swiftly forgotten... But if it's partial I think Labour can still make some political capital out of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8g_GeQR8fJo
I feel sorry for all those Tory candidates who have been selling this policy on the doorstep for the past few days and now look like chumps at best.
Nick Timothy's reputation is now lower than crocodile piss, which means Mrs May's government won't function well post election. She might have to sack him.
(You do have to wonder if there wasn't a fiver bet in CCHQ on "I reckon I can get a poll with the Tories in the 30's....")
If the pattern is rushed decisions made by a kitchen cabinet followed by panicked climb-downs, the Brexit negotiations will be a shambles.
Clever of Labour to capitalise on the Tory care policy fiasco seeing as it hits the better off the hardest... no wait....
The Tories won't be able to say - we have dropped that policy completely.
Instead they will have to explain whatever the amended policy is - and clearly they haven't figured out all of the details yet since they only just u turned.
Can't think of anyone, tbh. That's troubling.
As an aside, though, is anyone else feeling nostalgic for The Thick of It right now? One can just imagine Malcolm Tucker on current events...
On top of all the other fantastic promises, why oh why oh why hasn't their manifesto been dismantled piece by piece? I believe it has not come under anything like the scrutiny it would have if people genuinely believed they could be the next government. This has to change, because even if there is a million to one chance of Corbyn becoming PM, the consequences must be explained in great detail.
By the way, I thought May actually did pretty well in that speech. She had to do something, I suppose, and I guess even a U turn, embarrassing as it is, will be worth the short term damage in the end.
This last few days has rocked the Tories to the core, there's no point denying that now, but Corbyn & co offer them all the ammunition they could ever wish for in an opposition party, and they have to - must do - and I believe will do - expalin to the public what the catastrophc consequences of a Corbyn government would do to this country.
There are numerous, albeit less publicised, cases where the children of people who have died of dementia have fought social services through the courts ....... although usually to the steps of the court ....... and recovered part at least of he value of their inheritance. It’s nasty, one is vilified, but it can be done.
Her saving grace might be that the same result would prevent Labour from getting its act together as Corbynistas would insist all that's needed is one more heave from their man.
Still much more of this and it will be irrelevant two weeks Friday.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/866634586444492806
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/16/theresa-may-doesnt-have-a-willie-and-it-shows-she-urgently-and-desperately-needs-a-willie-in-her-government/
Because of leaks and Osborne's devastating attacks, Brown and Mandelson managed to do their U-turn on the Death Tax before putting it into the manifesto - which is less damaging.
As it has turned out, TM has managed to make a reasonable policy on a difficult issue into a massive own-goal, damaging her USP in the process.
Going forward, I agree that the U-turn will mitigate some of the damage even if a cap is not terribly defensible as a policy and will be difficult to administer. Politicians and political pundits like to think that politics is a bit like the BBC's Just a Minute!, whereby you score points if you can shout "U-Turn!" at your opponents. Voters, however, don't really play by those rules; John Major, after all, famously won the 1992 election on the mother of all U-turns.
Problem with Corbyn and his apologists now attempting to airbrush his past associations, and everything he is recorded to have said and done.
He WANTED the IRA to WIN.
That said, I'd been very happy with the policy; so the u-turn irks somewhat....
However, it is not a good use of public resources for these legal fights to be conducted. Public money is consumed in defending them by both theLocal Authorities and the NHS.
Public money that could be used for ... err ... social care.
Something that rarely gets mentioned is that there is a large Irish population in Archway, which is part of his constituency, Islington North.
It is possible to provide an argument in favour of the original proposals, there is some merit to them.
However the U-turn has destroyed the Strong and Stable branding, it was not possible for Corbyn to do this. This has enable a crack to form against the whole Conservative message (we know what we are doing, you can not trust Corbyn) which can now be pushed against and expanded.
This should be the focus for the other parties now, to undermine this Conservative message.
Even Neil Kinnock would have been ten points ahead by now. Mrs May has no instinctive feel for politics, or solidity of purpose. But it doesn't matter.
She's up against 'ol Bonehead who would turn us into Venezuela and be happy about it, and the anti-democratic Farron, who having put all his eggs in one basket, sees it lying smashed on the ground. And the chances of Ukip or the Greens winning anything are as likely as me giving birth.
But then he took a peerage - damn.
Phew! This was exactly what I'd been hoping May would do ever since the policy was announced. She's blown off a few toes, but saved the limb, not to mention her election campaign. The associated "embarrassment" is no big deal if it saves 25-50 seats - let every news outlet (especially the leftie ones) trumpet the new cap far and wide!
Can you tell I'm a little excited?
https://twitter.com/nick_clegg/status/866624835014754304
But the polling we will want to see is the next set of Sundays.
The ravening horde has largely kept its head down since the 2014 independence referendum, but we now see it hasn’t gone away - it is not enough for the SNP’s critics to be debated, they must be destroyed. This isn’t the behaviour of a normal political party: it’s the behaviour of a cult.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/nicola-sturgeons-snp-tony-blairs-new-labour-heading-crash-landing
I do hope when the dust settles and sanity has been restored to British politics that Umuna tries for the Labour leadership and he is utterly destroyed.
Curse Blair for his constitutional vandalism, it was worse than his Iraq mistake.
But his lack of knowledge of the law isn't surprising considering he did Jurisprudence at Oxford
Conservatives: 47% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 33% (up 5)
Lib Dems: 9% (down 1)
Ukip: 4% (down 2)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 14 points (down 6)
Martin Boon, ICM’s director, says these figures support claims Labour won the manifesto battle. Here is his take on the figures.
After the delivery of the party manifesto’s, polling over the weekend has indicated a resurgent, if still rather distant Labour party. ICM has been the stickiest pollster for the Tories, and while we probably still are, our poll today reinforces the impression that Labour have won the short term manifesto battle. They rise to 33%, up five-points on last week, while the Tories drop a point to stand on (a still heady) 47%.
The Tories have had a flat out bad weekend, and the wind does feel as if it’s suddenly blowing in a different direction, but we’ve seen short term effects like this before, and we’ve seen them dissipate. This is still a massive 14-point Tory lead, and still their election to throw away.
It is almost a whole year since ICM last saw Labour on 33% (June 2016), so it’s a surge that has been a long time coming. However, it does not arise in conjunction with a precipitous Tory collapse, and their 47% remains a number that the party will be wholly delighted with. Electoral Calculus predict an overall majority of 134, with the Tories only just shy of 400 seats. Labour do recover to 177, largely because their polling in their own marginal seats is much improved: a deficit of only 3-points compared to 17-20-points that we have seen in such places on ICM’s recent polls. It’s a step in the right direction.
Ukip drop to 4%, the lowest online share we have ever allocated to the party. This is partly the result of a methodology change. ICM is able to systematically allocate every respondent to their political constituency via their full postcode, so this week we built into the interview software constituency-level information that precluded Ukip as a party to vote for in those seats where they are not standing a candidate (thus forcing people living in such places to make an alternative choice). We believe this is a good addition to our polling methods; it will explain part of the further Ukip drop but perhaps not all of it
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/22/general-election-2017-theresa-may-social-care-fallout-politics-live?page=with:block-5922dcf1e4b03ddbc8d5be95#block-5922dcf1e4b03ddbc8d5be95
Labour up to 33% (+5)
Lib Dems down 1 to 9.
Still a huge majority if that is the case.
Welsh polls seem to get inordinate amounts of attention on PB. There is something about Celtic polls that seems to appeal to the PB psyche.
May's probably lost 25 potential gains, but saved a solid win.
"Wrong, yougov yesterday had Cooper and Umunna doing slightly worse than Corbyn against May and Khan only matched Corbyn."
Irrelevant. If they had been leaders, Corbyn would have been shuffled off by now, and his erstwhile motorcycle pillion kept way from the stats. No one can take over once the Titanic has hit the iceberg full on.
A more orderly retreat to the lifeboats perhaps?
Can you see Kinnock letting Jezza and his barmy pals loose?
Labour: 33% (up 5)
Lib Dems: 9% (down 1)
Ukip: 4% (down 2)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 14 points (down 6)
TMICIPM (BAL)