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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the party down 10 points in its latest poll
With just six days to go the news this morning has been dreadful for TMay and her CON party. First we had confirmation from the Crown Prosecution Service that three people are to face charges over party expenses at Thanet south at GE2015.
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Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Most of my Tory friends want May to go after the election.
So no, you can't.
It is very possible that there will be a huge swing back to Tories in last 48 hours as the reality of Jezza as PM sinks in, but I 'aint banking on that now.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/870591870136725504
Except there is no commitment or plan or vision so there can be no mandate. The fun starts on the ninth.
Where is Uttermost Peak Tory? Mid to high 40s, I would have thought? (Based on adding historical Tory vote shares to some "allocated" part of the UKIP, and to a lesser extent, Lib Dem vote.)
There's lots of tribal voters, public sector /creative workers and so on who would never go Tory. I think 45% would be an excellent result for them though the momentum should obviously be concerning. In dreamland they could be touching 50%, but can that seriously be a minimum expectation for an "acceptable" performance?
For me the more interesting thing is Lab reaching 40. They are either bringing new voters into play, or Jez is gobbling up votes from other parties. In what proportions and who is being eaten into?
Woods. Trees.
I doubt Brown would have allowed the social care policy to slip into his manifesto without having focus grouped it to death either.
Then we said Never mind the vote share, see the best PM rating
Now we say Never mind the the best PM rating share, look at the lead
We are running out of things to say.
To quote Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, destroying an empire to win a war is no victory.
I think the election now hangs on lefty tunrnout.
Colour me skeptical. Something very very strange is happening. Have the non voters woken up en masse? Could they.... will they turn Out?
Sounds like she just woke up one morning, and thought 'lets have an election' without anyone knowing. Which is crazy.
"I need you to do this one thing for me"
Sounds desperate, and a bit creepy!
I'd love to hear from the following:
1. Someone part of the Tory camapign. Is there panic or confidence?
2. Anyone knocking in a Midlands/Northern marginal. Have things really changed that much in 2/3 weeks?
You would think that they would have every known popular Tory on the media round the clock with some form of attack. Even the Tory friendly media haven't really been fed attack stories, mail yesterday was how biased the bbc is and today telegraph about to waiting times. The first won't shift a vote and the second is bad for the government.
75% in 1992, (labour 70%)
58% in 2015, (labour 53%)
There is a surge going on and this election will go to the wire.
TMay needs to actually start campaigning hard and offer up something to the public that makes them want to vote Tory. It can't be all fucking negative.
A little bit of showmanship. People like it.
They have completely ceded the ground and the spotlight to Labour from day one of this campaign. The Tories are nowhere to be seen. They've no-showed at their own party. It's a miracle the polls have them in the 40s.
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour could write off historic student debts| All those in early 20's with student debt #VoteLabour
I know May might be crap, but f*** me Labour are dangerous.
I'm predicting a comfortable majority and panic over.
I still won't vote for her, but I won't be endorsing labour and their absurd robin hood populism. The voter suppression worked!
Somebody is about to become a cropper either way.
I am voting Conservative myself but this is utterly fascinating now.
The key point, though, is that Corbyn is not the drag on Labour ratings that the Tories expected and based their strategy on. I think that a lot of people feel that politics under May is just a grim slog and voting Labour is voting for a bit of positivity and hope. The Tory message that it's a terrible risk is just not cutting through - it's actually reinforcing the sense that the Tories are all doom and gloom.
And Ipsos-Mori, like ICM, does weight by past voting, doesn't it?
Far better to have not geld the election but simply held the threat of her massive opinion poll leads over the EU.
Reading your posts, you seem to be very bullish about conservative prospects and very bearish towards labour. I haven't seen one negative post about conservative polling and you seem to be of the belief that the polls are wrong.
1) In Tory wards turnout was 85% in 2015. Labour ward turnout was 45-50%. Had Labour turnout been similar, the tories would have lost 28 seats in the midlands/northern england. Tory enthusiasm is down compared to 2015, labour enthusiasm is up.
2) 3/4 labour voters in the midlands/northern england are ex-labour voters. There is no evidence now that these same UKIP voters are voting heavily for conservative.
3) There are a lot of seats where the tory vote has a very low ceiling. Plymouth, Southampton, Walsall, Stoke, Weaver Vale, Carlisle and any increase in vote enthusiasm could easily see a labour gain. As mentioned on the conservative home website, the tories are campaigning in labour areas they haven't done so in decades and its ok getting 2-3k votes for council elections but to get to 20k to win a seat is very, very hard. The labour vote is not going to down. There aren't enough seats like Tamworth, Burton that are moving away from Labour.
Wow. He's gonna do this.
The reality is the collapse of the left into labour and if they vote then goodness knows what will happen
May has certainly made a mistake with the dementia tax but it asks the question: why do people say that they do not like dishonest politicians, yet when one has the temerity to say things cannot go on like this (i.e. the truth they don't like it?
I still think the Tories will romp it and I don't buy into the national debate changing much around the margins. Look at Gordon Brown in 2010, he was down to 22% after duffygate in the polls for Labour yet they polled 30%. The Lib Dems were the other way around polling 30% yet achieving only 24%.
However, if the 'surge' remains greater in the south, there must be a few seats there which will unexpectedly go or stay Labour:
Croydon Central ... plus any more in Plymouth, Swindon, Reading, Brighton, Southampton, Portsmouth, Luton, Bedford, Medway (now Rochester and Strood and was Labour up to 2010)?
Well, that is what the Corbyn supporters said as the reason for electing him: there's an army of non-voters out there. They said Corbyn was the man to get them off their arses. So far, it seems to be playing out well.
Let's see if they actually deliver though. And how much the prospect of Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn scares the shit out of everybody who doesn't buy in to that ideal.
Just to point out to anyone planing to high-tail it to Canada, that BC just elected an NDP (Labour) / Green coalition into power. Good luck!
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He made being PM look so easy and effortless.
Mrs May underestimated Cameron