Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 8-1 William Hill hung parliament but no coalition
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 8-1 William Hill hung parliament but no coalition bet
At 8/1 the current best value GE2015 bet is the “other” option in the William Hill list above. That there’ll be no overall majority but there’ll be no coalition formed.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/08/21/guardian_smashed_computers_questioned/
But 8/1 is decent, ta.
This only really works on a long term basis if the Conservatives are the largest party but a majority of Conservative backbenchers in 2015 are irrational. While I freely acknowledges that a sizeable minority of the current intake fall into that category, I'm very doubtful that they yet command a majority.
BUT. The bet is on the next Government. We might well have a minority Government before we have a formal coalition. 8/1 is fair value for this possibility.
http://www.conservatives.com/Achievements.aspx
I think they've also changed the font on their headings tags
Edit: In addition, don't forget that the LibDems, or many or them, will be very concerned at the prospect of another coalition with the Conservatives because they'll think there's a risk of losing their identity as a separate party. It's a fair enough point, even if it does clash with their raison d'etre of being the party of coalitions.
When I say office, I don’t mean some vast, modern, open-plan expanse; I mean office as in “deputy headmaster’s office”. For a speech by a former Cabinet minister, it was a remarkably small venue. Perhaps all the local phone boxes had already been booked up. We waited. Apparently the room belonged to a children’s mentoring charity. In the corner was a shelving unit stacked with Monopoly, Pictionary, Scrabble and other board games. “At least those’ll give us something to do once the speech starts,” said a journalist. Although what with the shortage of space the board would probably have to sit out in the corridor.
Twenty minutes late, Mr Byrne squeezed through his audience to the front. “I hope you’re comfortable,” he said, brightly. “I’ll rattle through this.” His subject was welfare, or, as Labour prefer to call it, social security. Senior party figures are worried that, in the public’s mind, the word “welfare” has become too closely linked with idleness, fecklessness, scrounging, and, worst of all, Labour. Hence during his speech Mr Byrne said “social security” 12 times, and “welfare” only once (“This Government’s promised welfare revolution has collapsed”). >> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10257309/Sketch-Labour-run-out-of-room-on-welfare.html
" Afterwards he took questions from the press. (“We’ve got 10 minutes for questions – or less if they get difficult!”) A journalist asked what he’d meant when he said, “Something seems to be very wrong in [Mr Duncan Smith’s] mind”. Was this really an ideal way to propose cross-party talks?
“I don’t have any doubts about Mr Duncan Smith’s sanity,” replied Mr Byrne, without explaining what “something very wrong in his mind” could mean other than “he’s bonkers”. He tried a different line of attack. “The Conservative party,” he said, “has become the ‘Failure to Reform Welfare’ party.”
Nice try, but two points off for saying welfare."
I end up thinking: "I want the twenty seconds it took to parse the blooming splash screen back!"
However: the Conservatives need to fight back against Labour's upcoming attack line. Such a splash screen might be a place to put 'real' stories about 'real' people who are doing well, and have done well under the coalition. There's bound to be one or two somewhere. ;-)
“Politically, it’s a masterstroke,” Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank in London, said of Help to Buy. “Economically, given the choice between that and stagnation, some growth is better than none.”
http://www.libdems.org.uk/
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2013/08/police-body-cams-make-criminals-90-per-cent-more-likely-to-confess-quickly/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23776839
On the face of it, it seems a good move for both police and suspects.
Want to stop wrinkles but don't like Botox? Just stick your head into a working particle accelerator ...
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2013/08/what-happens-when-you-stick-your-head-into-a-particle-accelerator/
A lucky man to live through that.
Does "amateurism" of #ukip matter as much as some claim? Since 2010 they've delivered striking results with no more than 10 full time staff
http://eorailway.co.uk/news/three-national-awards-unveiled-at-epping-ongar-railway
My years working at a preserved railway gave me an idea how hard it was to organise mass volunteer labour. As they don't get paid, they don't need to turn up. And most have firm (and often incompatible with each other, yet alone reality) ideas of the way forward for the organisation. You have to persuade them to turn out in all weathers, and to work safely and efficiently. For some jobs, you needed twenty or thirty people out regardless of the weather. Yet we mostly managed it.
I always thought that if you could manage volunteers on a preserved railway well over a number of years, you could probably manage any SME excellently. Herding cats has nothing on it.
Few manage it well, so well done to the guys and gals at the EOR.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Heritage_railways_in_Scotland
Betfair odds, 5th Test Oval:
England: 8.4
Australia: 2.3
Draw: 2.22
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/market?id=1.109859153&origin=MRL#id=1.109859001
http://www.nymr.co.uk/
I worked on trackwork and civil engineering, which was great fun. I left the operations to other people. It was great fun as we were extending the line, clearing vegetation, having massive bonfires, and laying track. And who can forget the epic drinking sessions. If you work hard, you have to play hard. It's the law.
A great bunch of people. too many of whom are no longer with us. :-(
(*) Which I still have not travelled behind. I need to go to the Great Central sometime to rectify that, and to remember Vince, Reg and others. God bless 'em all.
I actually miss it, but walking's my life now. From one sad hobby to another ...
Nothing wrong with railways or walking, Mr. Jessop.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/market?id=1.109859001
Could a minority government manage that?
If it tried to amend the law could it get a majority? I get the impression people quite like the idea of Parliament being told to get on wioth that it's got, and not bother the electorate again for a while.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
Worth a visit en route to the distilleries...
Wake up Labour
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/08/working-class-voters-and-progressive-left-widening-chasm
Sounds like Cast Iron Cammie's EU referendum promises.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100232026/the-real-reason-australians-have-lost-their-edge-in-sport-theyre-finally-comfortable-with-their-sexuality/
Haha not really! I couldn't care less! Lighten up
I find it extremely curious that the government is letting this go on under the surface so to speak. Are they scared that if they made a big thing of it Balls would be claiming that they have copied his policy (of whatever date) or is it simply a timing distortion? It seems very large to be the latter.
Once again the difference in reality if not in rhetoric between our two main parties gets ever smaller. Is it any wonder that the man in the street tunes out of these two bald men (apologies OGH) fighting over the proverbial more and more?
You can replay the full debate here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-21/rudd-and-abbott-face-off-at-people27s-forum/4903760
And has Avery still not confirmed or denied whether he's that block who wrote that article in the Telegraph?
Finally re EdM's troubles - I've said before that Labour MP Graham Stringer impresses me, he was on radion 5live yesturday about 16:15 talking about Labour difficulties, lack of strategy etc. Definately worth listening to if you're looking for a intelligent outsider Labour view.
.. a docile acceptance of a stalled deficit reduction and an increase in govt spending you seem to have given up completely on the initial aims of the govt...
tim, your conclusions are totally at odds with the facts. Here are some figures from todays Public Sector Finances Bulletin which show the truth.
If you are confused by the above table, it can be simplied: The only exception to the downward trend under Osborne being PSND ex where the ratio to GDP has risen, but you should note this is a subset of PSND and aggregate debt ratio levels are falling under the Coalition.
It may have been my cousin Seth O. Logue, but I can't confirm this as he is currently enjoying an incommunicado family holiday in Cleethorpes.
Switching off one's mobile on holiday seems to be in vogue this year.
https://twitter.com/PurpleColumnist/status/370243333031206912
If I were to tell you that there was a company which had increased its revenues by 10.3% (year on year) in the first four months of the year; that its expenses had only increased by 4.3%; and that the difference between the two was £9.3 bn, you might be impressed.
If I was also to tell you the company had also increased its net cash balances by £4.9 bn, at the same time as increasing its net investments by 146.3%, you would probably be bribing me to identify the company so that you could buy in.
Yet those are the true figures released for UK plc this morning.
[P.S. Growth % in investments overstated due to Royal Mail impact on April 2012 figures but direction of movement if not quantum valid].
We now seem to be getting to a position where capital investment is improving in the context of increasing income and a better grip on public spending. The underlying accounts are therefore much better but of course this is on a relative rather than absolute scale. Debt, in reality, continues to climb.
This is clearly an improvement but 3 years to get to this point puts George in the B class rather than the A*, especially on Gove's new, more demanding scale.
Genuinely curious as we might see some movement soon so it might be worth a punt for some.
The pressure will ease on the Govt from now because Syria has taken the lead news, but both security forces and Govt must know that this kind of thing can never happen again in the UK.
•Rand Paul 18% (8%)
•Jeb Bush 17% (9%)
•Paul Ryan 11% (7%)
•Chris Christie 10% (11%)
•Bobby Jindal 10% (14%)
•Ted Cruz 8%
•Marco Rubio 8% (21%)
•Rick Santorum 5%
•Susana Martinez 0% (1%)
•Someone else/Not sure 13% (8%)
The reaction on the lib dem blogosphere has been absolutely excoriating with only a few of Clegg's spinners prepared to put their heads above the parapet and fully support him.
This is yet another repeat of his frankly bizarre misreading of his own party's mood on issues such as these and he is in line for another very bruising conference.
I'm aware there's a thriving heritage railway industry in Scotland; in fact they probably display a higher level of 'professionalism' than UKIP Scotland (or whatever wanky moniker they trade under - SNIP, Scottish Non Independence Party?).
Pension fripperies would have been more difficult as the falls in living standards and earnings from savings hits this group the most, especially in a period where cost inflation of essentials (food, energy) was runnning much higher than the headline indices. The logical solution would have been to cancel the fripperies in return for a one off higher than normal rise in the state pension, but I would be surprised if the savings from abolishing the fripoeries would have enabled much of real rise in the pension. The problem with the fripperies is that they have much greater perceived than real value to recipients. And perceived value is all for politicians and salesmen.
On capex, there really was no alternative but to cancel existing project commitments in 2010 as the government needed to send a clear signal to markets that it was serious about deficit reduction. The Eurozone crisis showed how exposed we would have been to market pressure and we only need to look back to April of this year when both Moody and Fitch removing the UK's AAA rating to see just how close we came to being in the firing line.
[to be continued ...]
The Eurozone crisis has also seen the more hawkish austerity pressures abate as they nearly pushed the whole continent into depression. Growth rather than fiscal consolidation has become the fashion as evidenced by the IMF running around Europe arguing for increased investment. So a number of EU countries as large as France, Spain and Italy have taken fiscal consolidation holidays in order to get themselves out of recession.
So government investment as a stimulus only became fashionable over the past year; Luckily the UK got started on fiscal consolidation at a gradual pace early in 2010 and the progress made, together with being semi-detached from the Eurozone, has meant that we are leading the continent in growth without having to abandon the government's core fiscal mandate. The UK will both grow and consolidate in the short term future and generate sufficient funds to expand public sector investment. The latter won't be a pre-crisis Brownian PFI levels but at least it will be sustainable and suitable to the current state of the economy.
Debt reduction has to be a long term goal. The UK has only completed 40% of the fiscal consolidation needed to be able to reduce debt to 60% of GDP by 2030. There is a long road ahead, although bank share sales and above trend growth may see us get there in time. The key will be the political will to keep public spending at around 35% of GDP for a decade and a half.
But does that will exist in the electorate? 2015 will only be the first of a number of occasions when this question will need to be asked.
Do try and get real
http://www.libdemvoice.org/conference-preview-the-training-programme-35821.html
I can't find any mention of it on the Conservatives' conference website.
http://www.conservativepartyconference.org.uk/What_and_where/Whats_on.aspx
I have been to that part of Sicily on a choir tour (including Spem in Alium for those interested in such matters).
Not sure that helps from a travel guide perspective.
Who could possibly have seen that coming?
LOL
Remortgages that were the basis of the Brown boom were only at 24% of the level at the end of 2012 than they were at start of 2008. Over the past 5 years with interest rates so low many people have in fact greatly reduced their mortgage. Maybe its these people who are spending a bit more money now as they have greater disposable income.
My company is busier than ever and we have increased our spark numbers by 50%. All of our work is on commercial properties with companies expanding as demand increases. It is happening all over Hampshire, its not housing market led expansion, its demand led expansion that is fueling these companies growth and hence willingness to invest in improving or expanding their premises.
Confidence is returning to the economy and that is something that should be celebrated.
Deficit reduction as a target, Osborne's "Fiscal Mandate" and the EU treaty obligation of all countries having a current budget deficit below 3% of GDP, is based on the Cyclically Adjusted Current Budget (CACB). This metric excludes government investment and interest payments. In other words it is recurring government current revenues less recurring government current expenses.
So to be pedantic, neither increasing capex nor reducing it would have a direct impact on deficit reduction.
Capex does however impact government borrowing (unless you are Norway and can fund it out of accumulated surpluses). And the cost of borrowing is critical to the sustainability of debt.
Osborne had to demonstrate that the UK was reducing its borrowing (or growth in borrowing) to keep market rates low. Once a downward trajectory has been established it becomes much easier to raise funds for investment without alarming markets. And getting borrowing down requires both expenditure cuts (80%) and tax rises (20%) and growth. Plans to reduce borrowing need to be more than announced: they need to be implemented and seen to be working.
It is only now that the UK government can safely and cautiously start to plan increased levels of public sector and government investment.
Growth in Europe from 2011 onwards was killed by the Eurozone crisis, which arose out of unsustainable debt, deficits and state spending levels. It should not have escaped your notice that the Eurozone has only just emerged from a continuous recession since 2011, a fate which Osborne, whether by luck or judgement, just avoided.
It is pure fantasy to argue that the UK could have ramped up borrowing levels to finance infrastructure investment during 2011-12, at a time when the markets were in full hue and cry.
Mr. Putney, the bounders!
Early post for Belgium is up, incidentally. For my title bets it'd be handy if Hamilton won, Webber came second, and Alonso scored no points.
Amusing, unless you are a Labour spinner.
"Far be it from me to leap to Miliband’s defence. He is indeed a hopeless excuse for a political leader, with no vision or charisma or connection to the public, as reflected in his dire poll ratings among Labour’s own voters."
I am somewhere in the middle. The last government was the most useless and positively dangerous I have had to endure in my life time. I hope we will never see the like. In 2010 we were in a very bad place and Tim's repeated moans about a Chancellor whistling in the dark hoping to keep spirits up and the markets willing to lend us the collossal sums we needed (before we started printing it all) is a pretty poor point.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and the risks were real and substantial but capital spending was cut well into the bone by Darling to try and make Gordon's insanity look something like the real world. He failed. Inevitably. But in accepting this the current government accepted spending with a low multiplier effect and abolished spending with a high multiplier effect. It is ridiculous to argue that this did not have an adverse effect on growth over the last 3 years.
Growth would not have been good while the EZ committed its complicated hari kari but it could and should have been better. If it had been we would be borrowing less now. But better late than never. Osborne could have done better but he could have done a lot worse.
As you say Avery we have a long, long way to go.
Now, Cameron and Osborne have tried to engineer an unsustainable debt-fuelled boom, it's good news?
The PB tories just saw the word "union" in the Falkirk story, foamed at the mouth about unions and Len for a while and were too dumb to realise it's actual implications.
Still, you never were very bright.
Employment law should be torn up to allow small firms to sack women workers who get pregnant, UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom has suggested.
The Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire MEP said that owners of smaller businesses were too scared to hire women of childbearing age because of maternity and anti-discrimination laws.
Mr Bloom called for the tearing up of 'draconian' employment legislation which burdened small employers by giving women the right to take maternity leave and expect their jobs back.
He said there should be 'liberty of contract' which would see a woman replaced for a job if she had children.
'Young women would much rather have a job under liberty of contract than not be given a job because of the fears some employers might have', he told London's LBC radio.
He had argued that feminism had 'done no favours' for the 'sisterhood' and that maternity rights in employment law had been bad for women.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2398985/Bongo-bongo-land-UKIP-politician-Godfrey-Bloom-says-companies-sack-pregnant-women.html#ixzz2cdcNznO8
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Has someone been googling "Ed" "crap" "poll" etc do you think? Or excitedly c&p ing from Guido or some other Tory cesspit?
do you really think that?