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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which party leader will be the first to step aside?
Up to the end of July I thought that Ed Miliband was the leader most secure in his post with Cameron and Clegg fighting it out for second place. Now that has changed quite rapidly as we saw with the “Labour Insider’s” guest slot a couple of days ago on how EdM became much more vulnerable with the exit of Tom Watson.
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Neil said:
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@dugarbandier
Have you been following the latest on our friend Pat McQuaid? A day after he described reports of his Swiss nomination being withdrawn as bullsh*t he discovered that his Swiss nomination was withdrawn. Now Pat has learnt at the feet of some of the cutest hoors Ireland ever produced but even he must realise his number is up now?"
he won't go quietly tho will he? All the way to the end. Besides, he has some of the finest lawyers of his native morocco on his side...
this is quite interesting I thought
wikileaks party organisation seems to be almost as good as UKIPs
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/22/wikileaks-julian-assange
1. Alex Salmond
2. Johann Lamont
3. Ruth Davidson
4. Willie Rennie
If we're looking at what happens after the election you have to be careful about definition, but anyone who isn't in government is probably out. I think Cameron would be most likely to announce first, as you'd want to announce your resignation in your concession speech so you could forget about all this politics shit and concentrate on getting drunk.
2) Clegg is safe as well, but I'd say it's 75-25 him going after the 2015 election. The problem with going on manoeuvres to replace him is that many Lib Dem seats of potential replacements are potentially under threat in 2015.
3) Miliband is currently in the most peril, but Labour do not have a good track record of unseating poor leaders.
4) Farage *is* UKIP in many people's eyes; they have little visibility beyond him, and some of those (e.g. Bloom) are not necessarily positive or on-message. He's safe until after 2015.
All the above is barring unforeseen scandals.
Currently, Miliband is the one most likely to go, if the Labour Party develops a backbone. But that's not likely to happen, and there is not an obvious who replacement. Labour are still paying for Brown's tactics in the 2000s.
But all this will change in a month or two as the media circus moves its fire elsewhere. It still won't stop Miliband being a poor leader, though.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pey4edj4rw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-210813.pdf
That says, as EiT observes, it depends on the 2015 GE - which I expect all of them to fight.
@euanmccolm: @RossMcCaff "independent" expert writes newspaper article. yes scotland privately pays him.
@TelePolitics
Independence campaign 'fatally undermined' by admission it paid an academic to write newspaper article http://tgr.ph/16NsyT5 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3849606.ece
@jimmurphymp: Here's tweet from @YesScotland Chief Exec. Pays the pundit then punts his hired hands view as independent. #Trouble http://t.co/JDKVuedu3f
@TomHarrisMP: Ah, I see @YesScotland are trying to make this a story about them being hacking victims, not a "get paid to write helpful articles" story.
UKIP really need to lock him in a cupboard for a bit even if he's saying things many actually see as stereotypes.
"Writing on politics.co.uk, the politician also called 20th Century feminists "shrill, bored, middle class women of a certain physical genre". And he said men who had supported them were "slightly effete, politically correct chaps who get sand kicked in their face in the beach".
Mr Bloom, the MEP for Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire, described himself as an "alpha male" who "would not be caught dead at a birth of a baby". He argued it was important to recognise that the sexes were different, claiming only women cared about the toilet seat being left up or making the bed.
"Men and women are different yet there is no golden rule," he wrote. "Most women can find the mustard in the pantry quicker than a man and most men can reverse a car better than a woman. My female French colleague is a phenomenal car parker in tiny spaces in French cities but it is not the norm." He added: "Most wives do not regard putting petrol in the car as any part of their responsibility. Men cannot see the point in making the bed if you are going to get back in it tonight."
As the poll swings towards the Cons, so do the internals.
Thinking about the way the government is
cutting spending to reduce the government's
deficit, do you think this is...
Good or bad for the economy?
Good:40(0)
Bad: 42(-6)
Being done fairly or unfairly?
Fairly: 29(0)
Unfairly: 56(-3)
Necessary or unnecessary?
Necessary:56(0)
Unnecessary:29(-2)
Too deep, too shallow or at about the right
level?
Too deep: 28(-3)
Too shallow: 13(0)
Right:29(0)
Being done too quickly, too slowly, or at about
the right pace?
Too quick:43(-2)
Too slow:13(0)
Right:29(0)
Having an impact on your own life, or not having
an impact on your own life?
Having: 57(-4)
Not having:30(+1)
And who do you think is most to blame for the
current spending cuts?
The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition:25(0)
Last Labour Gov.: 36(+1)
Both: 26(-3)
I was thinking about that earlier re the % gap and the Approval rating - I assume that the tighter it is, generally App goes less negative.
That the information was remarkably in the hands of someone ex News of the World is of course entirely coincidental, after all they all have a track record with honesty and integrity.
That a piece was written by somebody who got paid for it in a news paper is hardly newsworthy. We see people claiming to be neutral quoted in op-eds the whole time and nobody queries whether they got paid for it. The number of times someone is advised as an independent on TV and it turns out they have party affiliations would be too many to count; as an example how a Tory thought as an ex Tory candidate she could claim to be neutral defied logic recently.
But if this is the best SOMEONE could attack the Yes campaign with, having hacked their account, then it shows it is squeaky clean in comparison to others.
Cynically, perhaps they do have information and are keeping their powder dry until 2 weeks before the vote. What was attacked needs to be verified and the source named.
Stupidly, by admitting they knew something they blew their guard on secrecy looking for a big item. Multiple attacks have been confirmed now.
Imagine if Tory head Office had been hacked; they would be up in arms and chasing everyone on what would be no doubt deemed a threat to national security!
Glad we can now talk about such stories on PB since it is intergral to the one you so freely quoted from, and SO many others.
ON TOPIC.
If Dave gets through a potentially difficult September/October his next point of vulnerability
Actually his next point of vulnerability is November/December/January/February.. etcetera. Get the picture?
Nicola Sturgeon could take over, the NO campaign would have to aggressively attack a woman which female voters would hate, and it would mean the female vote numbers for YES would inevitably rise.
LOL
Men and women to a greater or lesser degree have different instincts, logic and priorities. But that makes things more interesting - says he putting on his bra, thong and hold-ups- c'est la vie!
@jimmurphymp: Here's tweet from @YesScotland Chief Exec. Pays the pundit then punts his hired hands view as independent. #Trouble http://t.co/JDKVuedu3f
@TomHarrisMP: Ah, I see @YesScotland are trying to make this a story about them being hacking victims, not a "get paid to write helpful articles" story.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BSOPD5nIMAA_B_U.jpg:large
In general you are correct, today it is -25. However the voting of UKIP and often LDs on that point are more unpredictable than Cons and Labour. However it is now generally more under -30 than above, but I have not done a correlation - but have smudged the blusher.
I disagree (ish). – If the opinion of an esteemed individual is passed off as ‘impartial’ but in fact is bought and paid for, then it is ‘news worthy. – Coupled with the recent exposure of SNP councillors/members masquerading as Average Joe Blogs and Labour supporters, a narrative of ‘untrustworthiness’ begins to form - and that certainly is news worthy.
MODERATED.
That being the case the catastrophic drop in voters and MSPs and lib dem MPs that is coming means he must be the happiest leader in the world.
ROFL
Calamity Clegg is only still lib dem leader because nobody else wants to become the lib dem coalition sh*t magnet in chief this far out from an election. He's as toxic as ever and is a popular with the voting public a colossal steaming t*rd on their dinner plates.
The lib dem 'triumph' of only hanging on to Eastleigh by the skin of their teeth certainly wasn't helped by Clegg's all too predictable public relations car-crash over Rennard at the time.
Clegg's now at it again.
Regular as clockwork just before another conference this supremely clueless lib dem leader has completely failed to understand the first thing about what the Liberal Democrats as a party care about. The lib dem blogosphere and grass-roots have had their jaw dropped yet again by Clegg as he meekly approves NannyCam's authoritarian crackdown on freedom of the press and civil liberties.
Who would have thought that the lib dems as a party might actually give a sh*t about Civil Liberties Clegg? Must have come as something of a shock to you. Almost as much as when you blithely went along with NannyCam's snoopers charter until your party had to step in back then and remind you that you supposed to be a lib dem. What next? Maybe the lib dems will start caring about issues like the environment, Trident, europe or the creeping privatisation of the NHS? Nah, it could never happen. Just send out some orange booker spinners to say it's nothing to do with you and start chuntering away about "Alarm Clock Britain" or something equally witless. That should do the trick.
LOL
"If Dave gets through a potentially difficult September/October"
Why September/October Mr Smithson?
The loser between Cameron and Miliband will go too. The winner will be PM. That is the finishing post whether it is a minority, coalition or majority. That is why it is nonsense to say that Cameron did not win in 2010.
I honestly expect the media to get bored of bashing EdM in few weeks and will decide that whatever he says at conference its a masterful blah blah just to change the narrative. They are notoriously fickle as we've seen many times before.
I still expect Clegg to become an EU Commissioner next year and for a new leader to be run-in. If that doesn't happen, well no one is trying to kill him off right now after a bit of pressure from Friends of Vince Cable.
Cameron is safe as houses assuming he's not found in bed with someone other than Sam.
PBers hang on every word of rent-a-gobs like Tom Watson but most voters have never heard of him and even fewer are remotely interested in the fact he is the wee fat bloke who did Gordon Brown's dirty work for him.
Barring some major scandal, the Euro elections will come and go. The London chatterati will get terribly excited, the Tories will probably still top the poll. UKIP will probably return a collection of fruitbats to take £millions in salary and expenses from an organisation they want to abolish and Labour will huff and puff as Ed fails to quite match the hype and expectations of its supporters. Unless the YES vote wins in Scotland, everyone will go back to worrying about the normal things in life until Easter 2015 when their letterboxes and phones will suddenly be overwhelmed by people looking for votes.
Only after the GE are we likely to see anyone leave office as party leader and while many will not say it, Bland the Younger must be the favourite to go, especially if as many of us expect, he proves to be Michael Foot Mark II rather than Neil Kinnock Mark II.
As for the hoo-ha over the YES campaign apparently paying some academic to write a paper on independence or something, most Scots wont pay any attention or give a damn. I certainly don't. More interested in what is happening in Syria and the potential implications for us all.
Labour still in the 36-40% bracket......yawn.
PS Did I mention Ed is still crap ;-)
"Benedict Cumberbatch Attacks U.K. Government On “Sherlock” Set"
So not all Etonians and Harovians take the predictable reactionary establishment route.
Good.
At the Lib Dem conference these unhappy grassroots will be getting addressed by Cabinet ministers explaining how Lib Dem policies are actually being implemented. Ok it may not have the ideological purity of the position papers that no one actually read but they are achieving something real for the first time in generations. I think the majority will live with that.
There's no point replacing the Tory or Lib Dem leader when the parliamentary arithmetic won't change and they'll still be tied to their coalition partner, unless their performance given that constraint is still markedly below par - which isn't obviously the case by a long chalk.
By contrast, it'd be difficult to replace Miliband while Labour are still ahead in the polls and while he has the desire to carry on. Given that they didn't replace Brown when Labour was 20 points behind in the polls, it's not likely that they'll break the habit of their lifetime and start going in for ditching the leader.
There's also the question of replacements. There's no clear alternative Tory leader who'd do better. There are people who might do better but it'd be a big leap in the dark. It's one thing performing well as a cabinet minister, even a high-ranking one; it's a different matter being Number One. Within the Lib Dems, the only people who might perform more effectively (e.g. Tim Farron) are those who'd do so as attack dogs to the Tories, meaning they'd have to be in opposition. If they've already lost the election, that's one thing; it'd be quite different to lead their party out of government and would seriously affect their credibility as a party.
Likewise for Labour. Miliband might be a bit useless but would Balls be better or is he too Brown II? Is Cooper too hectoring and ineffective? Indeed, considering the opportunities the opposition has for attacking the government, what spokesman has been able to land hits with anything close to the effectiveness of, say, Robin Cook to the Major government, or David Davis to the late Blair and early Brown ones?
No, when the first party leader stands down, it will be because their party has seriously under-performed in the eyes of their party at the polls when it matters.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/bonnie-greer/ed-miliband-polls_b_3790605.html?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics?ncid=GEP
That they clearly didn't understand the dynamics of Falkirk, and the Brown Blair turf war still going on behind it, was only to be expected. And Egypt. The seemingly contradictory attitudes to military coups, civil wars and dictatorships makes it a racing certainty that both are only going to get far worse.
However much attention they are getting here it is as nothing compared to the 24/7 blasting of both stories across the entire middle east with all that will engender and possibly provoke.
There's also the rather more partisan reasoning for Cameron that it'll be a damn sight easier for him to fight the 2015 election with Clegg as Lib Dem leader than with a new face above the yellow rosette, especially if that new face wasn't part of the government.
There are good managers and astute people near the top of UKIP ---the party director Lisa Duffy and deputy leader Paul Nuttall are the best examples. But neither the press, nor and more especially the BBC, has any interest in linking 'sensible' and 'UKIP' in the same sentence.
Loads of commercial organisations can cope with an effective and dominant Sales Director who becomes MD. The truth is that if there is enough sales volume/votes, there will always be someone who will sweep up afterwards. It is sensible and normal to gain volume first, and put management systems in later.
As it is results day, here is your GCSE Maths Test.
You may need a calculator with trig functions for one question. For those without, 6/7 is allowable. Below that it is a visit to the HM's study.
Thought the worked answers are often over-complicated. Aren't teachers taught KISS?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23779549
Think that promoting or demoting Clegg to EU Commissioner before 2015 GE would be dangerous, as giving a fan of the EU and ECHR that post would only serve to disaffect the Tory-Kippers and risk more defections to UKIP which is the opposite of what DC wants to achieve.
Lib Dems and civil liberties are like the tory party and Euroscepticism. It's not some optional extra but a policy that strikes to the core of what most of them want to believe they stand for.
It matters.
It certainly doesn't mean they will dump him this conference. As has been said, no lib dem challenger in their right mind wants to become as toxic as Clegg this far out and take the blame for the coalition. Yet every single lib dem MP who is in a potential marginal seat will be keeping one eye on the Clegg's polling and one eye on 2015 as the instinct for self-preservation may be far too strong to resist.
We PB Tories , especially the Wine Salesman's favourites, the North British triumvirate are only too well aware of the significance of Falkirk. However it is an internal Labour issue and why get involved when your opponent is kicking himself to death!
To Scots voters Falkirk means a town near Stirling. For some it might mean the former soldier, what's his name (since few will know the name Eric Joyce) who keeps drinking too much and hitting people and shouldn't still be an MP. Almost no-one will realise that Gordon Brown is using it as his latest attempt to manipulate the Scottish party, something he has done for 30 years. Had Robin Cook and Donald Dewar not died, things might have been so different. Neither had much time for Brown and Cook of course loathed him.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23780581
UKIP will not be taken seriously with people like Bloom spouting his usual bs. It will be actively harmful to the party's chances of making any further breakthrough.
All parties have people like Bloom: people whose views the majority of the public are actively turned off by; dinosaurs who do not realise battles have been lost. Moat parties manage to mostly either shut them up or drown them out with other voices.
UKIP need to get sane people on the air, fast.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
The 'swivel-eyed loons' aren't going to rock the boat when it seems like he is closing the gap. Nor do they have anyone obvious to replace him.
If Cammie loses then it will herald a tory leadership battle focused like a laser on one subject. Staying IN or OUT of Europe. That will be Cammie's toxic legacy to his party and they will tear themselves to pieces over it.
For a political site to avoid the biggest POLITICAL story of the year so far which will be all over every other news outlet is frankly bizarre!!
I was debating the Bloom strategy, if that's what it is, with (Labour) friends last night - opinion was divided on whether he's a rogue elephant who embarrases the party or their licenced ambassador to the swivel-eyed while the mainstream party says "tut tut". I think it's the latter myself, but they need to pace it a bit - if someone says something un-PC once a month which the leadership mildly dismisses, that'll do them no harm with their voters and keeps them in the news, but if he's up all the time it starts to look chaotic, which even swivel-eyed voters don't really like.
It is never reported.
If Ukip were all Bloomers, they'd have a problem but as there's clearly no mainstream party that will even go near the sort of things he's saying, and as there is a strand of opinion that his sort of comments appeal to (and will notice them), then if it's manageable - a big if - then as Nick says, it won't harm their chances and may well help them.
"CONFIRMED: Ex Wife of an MP 'Chris Huhne' Vicky Pryce will be entering the Celebrity @bbuk house. #CBB pic.twitter.com/XdFZt5F4jY"
I'm beginning to wonder whether under every demure seemingly sane exterior there's a lunatic trying to get out?
The danger with Bloom is that his message is so off-key that it is a turn-off. It is why the abortion debate is rarely entered into in a meaningful way in modern politics; it is more likely to lose votes than win them, and opens up Pandora's Box. It is a debate that generates more heat than light.
The same is true for women's role in society. There are problems that need sane debate - for instance the lack of male role-models in primary schools, or father's rights. But Bloom is not carefully addressing these: he is going straight for the old, tired clichés.
Bloom is not in any way being managed by UKIP. He is a loose cannon and one, I assume, who suffers from something to many politicians do - a desire for the limelight.
What has UKIP's official reaction been to Bloom's latest outburst and his 'Bongo Bongo Land' comments?
The problem is that it is easy to have strong opinions on certain issues, with very little knowledge. In a discussion on whether park-and-ride schemes work, you would not be taken seriously if you haven't used one personally. But it seems to be perfectly acceptable to have strong views on how worthwhile Industrial Tribunals are, without ever having sat in on one. ('Bicycle shed management'.)
Bloom, deliberately provactively, tries to paint in bold colours, using shorthand that he hopes resonates. As you astutely notice, he is not that far from getting it right. FWIW, I think just too far. And he hasn't quite the charm he thinks he has in order to be able to get away with it. But again, he's not that far short.
Miliband - there aren't really any alternatives.
Clegg - methinks he'd prefer an alternative career and is waiting for someone to put him out of his misery.
Farage - wait until any dust has settled I guess.
Earlier this week, the Telegraph reported that David Cameron is preparing for a second coalition with the Lib Dems by discussing new rules to allow Tory MPs to vote on a new power-sharing agreement. Impressed by the discipline of Nick Clegg’s backbenchers compared with that of his truculent troops, Cameron wants his party’s hands "dipped in blood".
But what of Labour? In my politics column in this week's NS, I reveal that the party is making its own preparations for another hung parliament. One shadow minister recently told me that he had been encouraged to look for "points of agreement" with the Lib Dems and to consider constitutional reforms that would appeal to the party, citing the example of proportional representation for local elections. One of the concessions made by Labour when it entered coalition with the Lib Dems in Scotland in 1999 was the introduction of the Single Transferable Vote for local council elections and many Lib Dem activists now believe the party should have pushed for similar reform for England during the coalition negotiations in 2010...
Anyone who paints the Blair Brown feud as the fault of just one side is simply delusional.
The reason it's still going strong is that there are two sides deeply entrenched and both just as willing as the other to get their hands dirty. Little Ed and brother David were very much proxies to keep that going since the differences between both brothers were quite obviously not that great and merely played up to differentiate in the leadership contest.
The most ironic thing of all of course is that Brown and Blair weren't actually that far apart on new labour either. Their feud was about power, which was why it was so toxic. It was all the other labour MPs who projected what they wanted both leaders to stand for and then used them to advance whatever policy hobby horse they advocated at the time, and indeed still do. Neither Brown or Blair cared about deep philosophical roots or standing for anything in particular. They were managers and public relations men endlessly squabbling about the minutia of triangulation and positioning on the left or right as a cover for their desire to wield power unopposed and unimpeded by the other man.
The government already clothe, house and feed single mothers and their children, they should pay for maternity leave as well, especially as the lady has obviously been working. Double JSA for six months or something sounds ok.
I work in an industry that is open 7 days a week and my last boss used to say if you have a day off sick on Tuesday and you're meant to be off on Friday, just work Friday instead, we are not at school.
"THE Guardian has destroyed nauseatingly middle-class articles about garden furniture and teenagers failing to get a place at Oxford.
Ministers said it was in the national interest to destroy the articles as they make the UK a target for radical anti-narcissism groups. A government spokesman said: “The public do not need to know about teenagers called Ivan and Orla having to make do with Edinburgh University after being rejected by Oxford.
“Or why it is acceptable to send your kid to private school if the local comprehensive doesn’t cater to their uniqueness. “There are cases of people with genuine, real-life problems becoming physically ill after reading 1,200 word space-fillers about whether sausages are inherently misogynist..." http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/guardian-ordered-to-destroy-bourgeois-lifestyle-articles-2013082278865
There are lots of people who enjoy watching Jeremy Clarkson or Mark Steel* who wouldn't dream of voting for them or anyone espousing their views in a million years. Godfrey Bloom is entertaining some of those people, but I doubt he's changing voting preferences to UKIP's advantage.
*Personally in both cases, I'd rather be forced to watch youtube clips of botfly larvae being removed from human flesh.
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/370455737501114368/photo/1
NO COMMENTS MEANS PRECISELY THAT .NO COMMENTS>
If only Farage took to the airwaves telling him to "calm down dear" as we know how effective that is. ;^ )
If you can't see the damage Bloom's comments could do to UKIP, then you are a fool. Read his comments, and see the way he disparages both men and women.
And as I asked below: what have UKIP's official reactions to his comments been? Silence?
In 2015 it is quite likely that tripling the national vote to 9% would be seen as a failure if it did not also come with an MP. Expectations have been raised a lot higher.
I concur, but my O Levels were a long time ago and memory can be biased.
Then, I recalled that I have a mid-Victorian work book all done by the hand (beautiful copperplate) of a girl aged 8. The maths and general knowledge done by that 8-year-old, (with no calculator and no side working-out), and far harder problems than this GCSE, just show how the UK has declined wrt our global status. Our Victorian forebears led the world - we now follow it.
What % of the population does that cover?
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/payerti/employee/statutory-pay/smp-overview.htm
There once was a fellow who spied,
But not for the enemy side.
It all turned out badly
For young private Bradley,
Who got 35 years inside.
Ah, you are being unfairly deprived (get the human rights lawyers in)- but do you really want all your sins (I mean pleasures) to become public viewing?
Good luck in trying to attract anything other than nutjobs to UKIP!
#MRSA death rates have consistently fallen with a 79% decrease in males and 76% in females between 2008 & 2012 bit.ly/18JQww2 #ONS
There were 1,646 deaths involving C. difficile infection in England & Wales in 2012, 407 fewer than 2011 bit.ly/159mr9c #ONS
There were 1.09m 16-24 #NEETs in Q2 2013, almost unchanged on Q1 but down 104k on the year bit.ly/19IHowd
Maybe so but the fake 'libertarian floating voters' were right about his Bongo Bongo land comments. Weren't they? ;^ )