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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori Issued Index out

SystemSystem Posts: 11,017
edited August 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori Issued Index out

The Augusut Ipsos-Mori issues index is out

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    First?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This is bad news for the Tories.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Plato said:

    This is bad news for the Tories.

    Plato, in your case, should that now read 'for us Tories?'
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    philiph said:

    Plato said:

    This is bad news for the Tories.

    Plato, in your case, should that now read 'for us Tories?'
    Quite - Call me Phil Roberts from now on :^ )

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Just 7% of those questioned by Ipsos-MORI for the August Issues Index mentioned the EU

    Oh and here we are again with that old dead horse that gets rubbished everytime its dragged off the knackers wagon.

    Let's see how long it takes for EdM to offer an EU vote in or out. Even the LDs offered one before GE2010 and changed their mind.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    People aren't worried about the economy but are (more) worried about immigration, housing, health.

    Good. They know the economy is on the mend so they have the luxury of worrying about other things.

    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TOPPING said:


    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?

    It's not so long ago that people were arguing that the rating for the economy had to be higher to avoid a 1997 style situation where the Tories led on the economy but lost the election.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,377
    Just embedded a couple of tweets from OGH
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TOPPING said:

    People aren't worried about the economy but are (more) worried about immigration, housing, health.

    Good. They know the economy is on the mend so they have the luxury of worrying about other things.

    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?

    just because the patient didn't die hardly means he's getting better. Anyone saying the economy is on the mend forgets we're still on substantial life support.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    Alanbrooke said:

    TOPPING said:

    People aren't worried about the economy but are (more) worried about immigration, housing, health.

    Good. They know the economy is on the mend so they have the luxury of worrying about other things.

    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?

    just because the patient didn't die hardly means he's getting better. Anyone saying the economy is on the mend forgets we're still on substantial life support.
    Couldn't agree more - the point being that no one would have it in their mind that they needn't worry about the economy _as much_ and then go right ahead and vote back in the party that (according to the polls) they blame for the state it was in at its sickest.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    TOPPING said:

    People aren't worried about the economy but are (more) worried about immigration, housing, health.

    Good. They know the economy is on the mend so they have the luxury of worrying about other things.

    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?

    QTWTAIY

    However the assumption in the question is wrong!
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited August 2013
    MODERATED







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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    OldKingCole said:

    TOPPING said:

    People aren't worried about the economy but are (more) worried about immigration, housing, health.

    Good. They know the economy is on the mend so they have the luxury of worrying about other things.

    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?

    QTWTAIY

    However the assumption in the question is wrong!
    Picture yourself, in the ballot box. You not so much hate the tories as have long understood them to be nasty, little-englanders. Or so much of the media you read has said. You voted LD last time as you were sick of Labour.

    Your pen boldly moves towards the Lab candidate. Enough of this, you say, actually I do hate the Tories. All right-thinking people hate the Tories.

    But then the flashbacks begin. Random ideas come into your head. Didn't fix the roof when the sun was shining...worst financial crisis in memory on Labour's watch...Images of queues outside Northern Rock....didn't I read that the economy is turning round...employment up....interest rates low...

    Your hand hovers. Dare I risk the my economic well-being with Labour again? Dare I?

    QTWTAIN.
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    The most controversial part of the EU project at the moment is the free movement of people - but unless you said just that, it would no doubt go down as concerns about immigration. Nothing wrong about that classification, only it makes the issues appear more separate than they are.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    We could have now seen the best first order differentials in the economy - growth per quarter and so on - in 2014, 2-3% would be be considered strong. I believe business confidence is most closely related to changes in growth, rather than growth. However, thing like unemployment trade off the absolutes quite a lot.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited August 2013
    TOPPING said:

    OldKingCole said:

    TOPPING said:

    People aren't worried about the economy but are (more) worried about immigration, housing, health.

    Good. They know the economy is on the mend so they have the luxury of worrying about other things.

    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?

    QTWTAIY

    However the assumption in the question is wrong!
    Picture yourself, in the ballot box.
    What the hell are you doing in the ballot box? Surely that is a breach of electoral law, not to say a bit snug. You'll knacker your back.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    Jonathan said:

    TOPPING said:

    OldKingCole said:

    TOPPING said:

    People aren't worried about the economy but are (more) worried about immigration, housing, health.

    Good. They know the economy is on the mend so they have the luxury of worrying about other things.

    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?

    QTWTAIY

    However the assumption in the question is wrong!
    Picture yourself, in the ballot box.
    What the hell are you doing in the ballot box? Surely that is a breach of electoral law, not to say a bit snug.

    You must understand we cater to all tastes here on PB :)
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,563
    It's Thursday which means it must be time for

    THIS IS A LOCAL ELECTION FOR LOCAL PEOPLE!

    THERE'S NOTHING FOR YOU HERE!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    Andy_JS said:

    It's Thursday which means it must be time for

    THIS IS A LOCAL ELECTION FOR LOCAL PEOPLE!

    THERE'S NOTHING FOR YOU HERE!

    Hey! That's my line!

    :)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Quinnipiac Virginia 2016

    Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (45%)
    Chris Christie (R) 37% (40%)

    Chris Christie (R) 44% (46%)
    Joe Biden (D) 37% (38%)

    Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
    Ted Cruz (R) 34%

    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Ted Cruz (R) 37%

    PPP Louisiana 2016

    Paul Ryan (R) 46% (46%)
    Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (46%)

    Rand Paul (R) 45%
    Hillary Clinton (D) 44%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
    Jeb Bush (R) 44%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
    Chris Christie (R) 41%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (48%)
    Bobby Jindal (R) 40% (45%)

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Galaxy Polls from Oz of NSW and Victoria marginals. Overall, a clear Coalition lead in line with national polling, but with 7/10 with margins of 5% or less still could be tight if the ALP get the national margin from its present average of 53-47 to about 51-49 or 50-50

    In the Sydney seats:

    Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.

    Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.

    Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.

    Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.

    Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.

    Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.

    Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.

    In Victoria:

    La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.

    Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.

    Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    Jonathan said:

    TOPPING said:

    OldKingCole said:

    TOPPING said:

    People aren't worried about the economy but are (more) worried about immigration, housing, health.

    Good. They know the economy is on the mend so they have the luxury of worrying about other things.

    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?

    QTWTAIY

    However the assumption in the question is wrong!
    Picture yourself, in the ballot box.
    What the hell are you doing in the ballot box? Surely that is a breach of electoral law, not to say a bit snug. You'll knacker your back.

    ha! My poetic urges got the better of me....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,377
    Andy_JS said:

    It's Thursday which means it must be time for

    THIS IS A LOCAL ELECTION FOR LOCAL PEOPLE!

    THERE'S NOTHING FOR YOU HERE!

    Harry's piece will be going up at 9.30pm
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    TOPPING said:

    OldKingCole said:

    TOPPING said:

    People aren't worried about the economy but are (more) worried about immigration, housing, health.

    Good. They know the economy is on the mend so they have the luxury of worrying about other things.

    Does anyone really think that after he has saved the world economy, the electorate are going to vote out Boy George & team in 2015?

    QTWTAIY

    However the assumption in the question is wrong!
    Picture yourself, in the ballot box. You not so much hate the tories as have long understood them to be nasty, little-englanders. Or so much of the media you read has said. You voted LD last time as you were sick of Labour.

    Your pen boldly moves towards the Lab candidate. Enough of this, you say, actually I do hate the Tories. All right-thinking people hate the Tories.

    But then the flashbacks begin. Random ideas come into your head. Didn't fix the roof when the sun was shining...worst financial crisis in memory on Labour's watch...Images of queues outside Northern Rock....didn't I read that the economy is turning round...employment up....interest rates low...

    Your hand hovers. Dare I risk the my economic well-being with Labour again? Dare I?

    QTWTAIN.
    No. Stay with LibDems.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    ...Still less Hilary's NIMBYLabour vetos, eh?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    OGH Previous thread - You seem to have ignored the elephant in the room that the only 2 elections when governments increased their voteshare, 1966 and Oct 1974 came off the back of governments having either failed to win the previous election outright or won barely an majority at all, ie exactly the circumstances in 2015
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Just 7% of those questioned by Ipsos-MORI for the August Issues Index mentioned thecEU
    I wouldn't worry about it as comical tory incompetence will ensure it returns as an issue despite the obvious cowardice from those who want to pretend Cammie didn't make a Cast Iron Guarantee.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNoJr0rqq54

    Just a plain old liar then. ;^ )
    A pathetic habit but one we are all used to seeing by now.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    tim said:

    Hapless Jeremy Chum was supposed to keep a lid on health concerns,I guess his roll out of 111 put a stop to that.

    Good to see housing rising fast, maybe the British people won't fall for Osbornes bubble policy without question.
    All the crap about rising house prices being a good thing shouldn't be a given.

    tim I know you have legitimate concerns about the govt's housing schemes but it's a bit like worrying that your shoelaces are undone when you're running away from a tiger. Yes, not ideal; yes, at a stretch could be dangerous; but quite frankly, you have other things on your mind.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @tim - you're becoming so stunningly desperate these days that it's almost cruel to engage with you. But I do worry about your temper: are you already on the bottle so early in the evening?
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited August 2013
    Porky.. Much flailing in the heather..Lol..Chortling.. ROTFLMAO.. are your eyes ok..
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - you're becoming so stunningly desperate these days that it's almost cruel to engage with you. But I do worry about your temper: are you already on the bottle so early in the evening?

    Concern about immigration

    Con voters 52%
    Labour 32%
    Lib Dem 28%
    UKIP 79%

    Can you see why the Tories getting their supporters riled about immigrants may not be too clever?

    Omg ukip voters are more concerned about immigration! Stop the presses!
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    JohnO said:

    @tim - you're becoming so stunningly desperate these days that it's almost cruel to engage with you. But I do worry about your temper: are you already on the bottle so early in the evening?

    Is it not the done thing to drink wine at 8pm?

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - you're becoming so stunningly desperate these days that it's almost cruel to engage with you. But I do worry about your temper: are you already on the bottle so early in the evening?

    Concern about immigration

    Con voters 52%
    Labour 32%
    Lib Dem 28%
    UKIP 79%

    Can you see why the Tories getting their supporters riled about immigrants may not be too clever?

    and labour was banging on about immigration last week,what was that all about,tactical ? if so,labour are the nasty party.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Hardly Identical. Both of those elections were a few months after the first. If there had been a GE in Nov 2010 with all the parties having kept their leaders from May 2010 then there might have been a parallel.

    Witless and talentless as they are, I expect a small Labour majority. Shortly followed by party infighting as the party finds itself sticking to much the same austerity policies, and is unable to control inflation. It will be a Labour govt similar to the 75-79 one, and not one people will remember fondly. Kippers will put Ed Miliband in Downing st then have apoplexy afterwards.
    HYUFD said:

    OGH Previous thread - You seem to have ignored the elephant in the room that the only 2 elections when governments increased their voteshare, 1966 and Oct 1974 came off the back of governments having either failed to win the previous election outright or won barely an majority at all, ie exactly the circumstances in 2015

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    FoxinSox - 1966 was 2 years after 1964, so you are looking at 2012 as a parallel, and the Tories were polling worse then than now. Whatever Cameron is, he is also no Heath (and even he won the popular vote in Feb 1974) and I remain convinced a narrow Tory majority, although I myself would have wanted the deficit cut by 2015 and with equal cuts across the board and no ringfence
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Bloody right wing press...

    @GdnPolitics
    Ed Miliband needs to be sharper on economy, say Labour duo http://bit.ly/14I0VoI

    Good job Ed swiftly and decisively shut down his critics.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    By abandoning or emulating the discussion between Kippers and Tories over Europe and immigration, Labour have allowed a consensus on these issues to dominate the political discourse. Labour will not go into the election promising to restore immigration to the levels of a decade ago or to increase the powers of the EU.

    No, expect them to be Anti both in word if not in deed. Whether they will follow through with it or whether it is just lip service, well we shall see.
    tim said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - you're becoming so stunningly desperate these days that it's almost cruel to engage with you. But I do worry about your temper: are you already on the bottle so early in the evening?

    Concern about immigration

    Con voters 52%
    Labour 32%
    Lib Dem 28%
    UKIP 79%

    Can you see why the Tories getting their supporters riled about immigrants may not be too clever?

    and labour was banging on about immigration last week,what was that all about,tactical ? if so,labour are the nasty party.


    Immigration salience and Tories going to UKIP are clearly linked, thats why Cameron should be trying to calm the issue down rather than employing a far right anti immigration dog whistler.
    But that's his choice.
    Labour should leave the two sides of the grubby page to scrap over that vote.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - you're becoming so stunningly desperate these days that it's almost cruel to engage with you. But I do worry about your temper: are you already on the bottle so early in the evening?

    Concern about immigration

    Con voters 52%
    Labour 32%
    Lib Dem 28%
    UKIP 79%

    Can you see why the Tories getting their supporters riled about immigrants may not be too clever?

    and labour was banging on about immigration last week,what was that all about,tactical ? if so,labour are the nasty party.


    Immigration salience and Tories going to UKIP are clearly linked, thats why Cameron should be trying to calm the issue down rather than employing a far right anti immigration dog whistler.
    But that's his choice.
    Labour should leave the two sides of the grubby page to scrap over that vote.
    The only thing that was grubby from last week was chris Bryant and his immigration speech.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    Immigration salience and Tories going to UKIP are clearly linked, thats why Cameron should be trying to calm the issue down rather than employing a far right anti immigration dog whistler.

    Almost. We can take it as read that anyone with an I.Q. greater than a potato knows full well that banging on about kipper core issues only hurts the tories. So the only way to calm down the issue is to shut up about it and change the subject to one NF and the kippers are weakest on. It's obvious stuff but Crosby and Osbrowne just can't help themselves from counterproductive master strategising stupidity.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:

    Slackbladder said:

    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - you're becoming so stunningly desperate these days that it's almost cruel to engage with you. But I do worry about your temper: are you already on the bottle so early in the evening?

    Concern about immigration

    Con voters 52%
    Labour 32%
    Lib Dem 28%
    UKIP 79%

    Can you see why the Tories getting their supporters riled about immigrants may not be too clever?

    Omg ukip voters are more concerned about immigration! Stop the presses!
    I wasn't expecting you or the other PB Tory stats geniuses to grasp anything.
    Underestimating us PB Tories might be part of the reason you have lost so many bets to us!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    My point is that the Tories do not need to win the election if Labour are planning to implement the same policies the Tories espouse. They have won the argument instead.
    tim said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    By abandoning or emulating the discussion between Kippers and Tories over Europe and immigration, Labour have allowed a consensus on these issues to dominate the political discourse. Labour will not go into the election promising to restore immigration to the levels of a decade ago or to increase the powers of the EU.

    No, expect them to be Anti both in word if not in deed. Whether they will follow through with it or whether it is just lip service, well we shall see.

    tim said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - you're becoming so stunningly desperate these days that it's almost cruel to engage with you. But I do worry about your temper: are you already on the bottle so early in the evening?

    Concern about immigration

    Con voters 52%
    Labour 32%
    Lib Dem 28%
    UKIP 79%

    Can you see why the Tories getting their supporters riled about immigrants may not be too clever?

    and labour was banging on about immigration last week,what was that all about,tactical ? if so,labour are the nasty party.


    Immigration salience and Tories going to UKIP are clearly linked, thats why Cameron should be trying to calm the issue down rather than employing a far right anti immigration dog whistler.
    But that's his choice.
    Labour should leave the two sides of the grubby page to scrap over that vote.
    Europe doesn't move votes.
    Immigration moves votes from the Tories to UKIP when salience is high, who move back when salience falls.

    I'm very happy for Cameron to bang on about immigrants and Europe.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Good to see Plato actually join the Tories. She will do far more for her views, society and herself that way than just posting on here all the time.

    More people actually being members of the party should hopefully raise the quality of discussions on here.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    Europe doesn't move votes.

    It can when the tory swivel-eyed loons start running around like headless chickens over it like they did before the May local elections. Cammie was looking distinctly John Majoresque back then. He's appeased the gullible tory eurosceptics yet again though and they should keep fairly quiet about it even through the EU elections. Unless of course something causes them to lose their minds on the issue again or if they start to feel Cammie is a lost cause.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    So where is Labour fighting? Where are there key battlegrounds?

    NHS & being nice.

    They are admitting they aren't up to it on the economy (thanks Pete & John) plus he can't be any sharper now on it than he was under Gordo unless he accepts the Cons arguments; Bryant has tried a reverse triple dog-whistle on immigration; Europe, they will follow on the referendum; housing, we're not sure let's say a massive programme of house-building but you know how we Brits are about housing - it's a Tory win.

    So it's the NHS. And not being toxic.

    Again, when it comes to the ballot box and people being in the, ahem, voting booth, that's just not enough.

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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    On topic. I don't know how much it needs to be said but all Lynton does is boost UKIP. Now I would hope the long term consequences of Tory members going to UKIP are becoming more apparent to people.

    If Lynton is allowed to stay on UKIP will overtake them by 2016/17
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,825
    I think the effect of the immigration issue is to keep floating voters in the right-wing camp. The right wing vote has gone up from 40% to 45% since 2010. I imagine that Cameron and Crosby are then counting on getting UKIP supporters to vote tactically for the Conservatives in 2015.

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited August 2013


    Underestimating us PB Tories might be part of the reason you have lost so many bets to us!

    @Neil - Think of the cocktails, think of the cocktails. Oooh yes....and so many more in 2015 (shame we have to wait that long though)
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,825
    HYUFD, it certainly looks like the Coalition will win, if not a landslide, certainly a fair majority.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Tim

    It would be the equivalent of Ed Miliband spending all his time banging on that the only way to solve inequality was to nationalise the 300 largest companies, but then privatise the post office when in power.

    If you say one thing is the answer and then you can't deliver it. People will go to the party that can actually deliver on it. Dave and the Tories should not mention UKIP again.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @JohnO

    I think I only have two pbc bets on the next GE. Caroline Lucas to hold on in Brighton (with Mark Senior at an eye-popping 8/1) and UKIP to get less than 10% (with Sam at 4/6 I think).
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    Neil said:

    @JohnO

    I think I only have two pbc bets on the next GE. Caroline Lucas to hold on in Brighton (with Mark Senior at an eye-popping 8/1) and UKIP to get less than 10% (with Sam at 4/6 I think).

    Yes, I'm also on the one with Sam...but HurstLlama (I know you're out there) really should now pay up his £50 on the Scottish referendum date (just as I forked out the same amount to James Kelly on the franchise).

    But I remain hopeful of collecting from JK and Malcolm G on the referendum itself and the icing on the cake will be the three (I think) with tim-the-most-gorgeous on May 2015.

    All winnings to be shared with the pbTory heavy-mob (assuming reciprocity from your good self and The Very Reverend Professor Dr Nabavi.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    TOPPING said:

    So where is Labour fighting? Where are there key battlegrounds?

    NHS & being nice.

    They are admitting they aren't up to it on the economy (thanks Pete & John) plus he can't be any sharper now on it than he was under Gordo unless he accepts the Cons arguments; Bryant has tried a reverse triple dog-whistle on immigration; Europe, they will follow on the referendum; housing, we're not sure let's say a massive programme of house-building but you know how we Brits are about housing - it's a Tory win.

    So it's the NHS. And not being toxic.

    Again, when it comes to the ballot box and people being in the, ahem, voting booth, that's just not enough.

    housing health and living standards.


    The only way you tackle benefit spending is by tackling housing and living standards, that's what Tories don't understand, that's why they are so confused that benefit spending has risen while they were falling for bedroom taxes and benefit caps as a way of reducing them
    I think we'll be hearing a lot about the cost of living in the run up to 2015. We'll be sick to death of it by May.

    Thing is, if you are GO you have a _lot_ of tools at your disposal to resort to good old-fashioned bribery. You suffered for so long, you saw austerity through with us so here, here's a tax break/handout/exemption. There will be a credibility then. Just like you stop being angry after you have been holding on the phone for ages when someone nice and scottish from the building society or insurance company picks up the phone, so will people respond to an immediate financial incentive.

    EdM doesn't have the tools apart from ever greater criticism but at the debates it will be difficult to argue that the cost of living has gone down when the CoE can say "exactly and that is why we are going to xxxx"

    Health yes; housing/benefits I wouldn't worry too much about it in terms of electoral benefit. Between the scroungers on the one hand and disabled people being forced out onto the streets on the other, the man on the Clapham Omnibus is too confused to determine what's really happening.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    God even the BBC's news item on exams is full of nubile female examinees.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    I imagine that Cameron and Crosby are then counting on getting UKIP supporters to vote tactically for the Conservatives in 2015.

    In a 2006 article, Electoral calculus says: Labour supporters, voting tactically affects 10 seats. LD supporters, voting tactically affects 16 seats.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlabgap.html#tactical

    Those Labour supporters seem unlikely to vote LD in 2015.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @JohnO

    I couldnt think of a better way of investing any PB bet winnings than in a cocktail party. And a train ticket back from Plymouth ;)
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited August 2013
    @Neil - We must be far more ambitious. Aberdeen! But I don't think SW Trains runs that far. And I'm not sure staggering off inadvertently at West Byfleet will help.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I haven't seen any policy differences of consequence between Labour and the coalition on health. Burnham has promised to work with the structures of the Lansley bill. I cannot see Chris Bryant carrying the "nice" tag very long.

    I do not fear a Labour govt. It will be ineffectual, as the front bench are ineffectual, but the govt after it does frighten me.
    TOPPING said:

    So where is Labour fighting? Where are there key battlegrounds?

    NHS & being nice.

    They are admitting they aren't up to it on the economy (thanks Pete & John) plus he can't be any sharper now on it than he was under Gordo unless he accepts the Cons arguments; Bryant has tried a reverse triple dog-whistle on immigration; Europe, they will follow on the referendum; housing, we're not sure let's say a massive programme of house-building but you know how we Brits are about housing - it's a Tory win.

    So it's the NHS. And not being toxic.

    Again, when it comes to the ballot box and people being in the, ahem, voting booth, that's just not enough.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @JohnO

    I was in Aberdeen for work lately. I dont think our winnings would stretch to a hotel room there!
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Another Dave

    To be fair I am not sure. I wanted the Lib Dems wiped of the planet after the coalition was formed. Now I would consider voting for them to screw a tory. Active Lib Dem MPs will be able to convert this attitude amongst Labour voters.

    Providing the Lib Dems don't spend the whole campaign attacking Labour.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    Neil said:

    @JohnO

    I was in Aberdeen for work lately. I dont think our winnings would stretch to a hotel room there!

    I'm sure Fitalass would put us up if we asked nicely.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    SeanF - Indeed, if they cut UKIP down to 5%. Although I am not sure about fair, I think it will be a Tory majority of less than 10, which would be the smallest since the war for the Tory Party
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The libdems cannot campaign on a platform that repudiates their role in the coalition, at least in 2015. If they campaign on a platform of continuing their work, then they will get my vote. Apart from Vince they are enjoying the few levers of power, and like sensible Tories should not rule out a continuity coalition.

    The Ministers will want a role in govt again, whatever their activists and voters think.
    IOS said:

    Another Dave

    To be fair I am not sure. I wanted the Lib Dems wiped of the planet after the coalition was formed. Now I would consider voting for them to screw a tory. Active Lib Dem MPs will be able to convert this attitude amongst Labour voters.

    Providing the Lib Dems don't spend the whole campaign attacking Labour.

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @tim - Fret not - Hershamites are VERY broad-minded and entirely non-judgemental in every way. That reminds me, the next edition of the Bugle is due soon...in return for an article on "tinctures to titillate" we will send you some produce from the food-bank.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    IOS said:

    Another Dave

    To be fair I am not sure. I wanted the Lib Dems wiped of the planet after the coalition was formed. Now I would consider voting for them to screw a tory. Active Lib Dem MPs will be able to convert this attitude amongst Labour voters.

    Providing the Lib Dems don't spend the whole campaign attacking Labour.

    Dr tyke here,come on Ios,tell me your troubles,like,why do you hate the tories so much,come on,let it out.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Fox the best chance they will have is with us. And it is better for them strategically to have been in coalition with both Labour and the Tories.

    But it's their choice. They cannot live without Labour tactical voters in my opinion. So they best start sucking up.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited August 2013
    Ah, IOS, now you're here, do you share tim's view that Chris Bryant is an utter 'Kent' (sic).
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,262
    JohnO said:

    @tim - Fret not - Hershamites are VERY broad-minded and entirely non-judgemental in every way. That reminds me, the next edition of the Bugle is due soon...in return for an article on "tinctures to titillate" we will send you some produce from the food-bank.

    Is that the Hershamite Kingdom of Jordan?

    :)
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Tykejohnno said:

    IOS said:

    Another Dave

    To be fair I am not sure. I wanted the Lib Dems wiped of the planet after the coalition was formed. Now I would consider voting for them to screw a tory. Active Lib Dem MPs will be able to convert this attitude amongst Labour voters.

    Providing the Lib Dems don't spend the whole campaign attacking Labour.

    Dr tyke here,come on Ios,tell me your troubles,like,why do you hate the tories so much,come on,let it out.
    You really want to know ! They are ******** [ choose a 7 letter word which contains an a,b,d, r,s,t and as an eighth letter just add an "s"as a suffix.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @JohnO

    Seeing as you would be the political powerbase *and* the looks of the operation I doubt the local press would ever suspect anything anyway ;)
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited August 2013
    surbiton said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    IOS said:

    Another Dave

    To be fair I am not sure. I wanted the Lib Dems wiped of the planet after the coalition was formed. Now I would consider voting for them to screw a tory. Active Lib Dem MPs will be able to convert this attitude amongst Labour voters.

    Providing the Lib Dems don't spend the whole campaign attacking Labour.

    Dr tyke here,come on Ios,tell me your troubles,like,why do you hate the tories so much,come on,let it out.
    You really want to know ! They are ******** [ choose a 7 letter word which contains an a,b,d, r,s,t and as an eighth letter just add an "s"as a suffix.
    lol,I asked for it ;-)

    I'm glad Dr tyke could help you out ;-)

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    I imagine that Cameron and Crosby are then counting on getting UKIP supporters to vote tactically for the Conservatives in 2015.

    In a 2006 article, Electoral calculus says: Labour supporters, voting tactically affects 10 seats. LD supporters, voting tactically affects 16 seats.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlabgap.html#tactical

    Those Labour supporters seem unlikely to vote LD in 2015.
    Some are reconsidering as IoS wrote earlier.

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936
    Plato said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Just 7% of those questioned by Ipsos-MORI for the August Issues Index mentioned the EU

    Oh and here we are again with that old dead horse that gets rubbished everytime its dragged off the knackers wagon.

    Let's see how long it takes for EdM to offer an EU vote in or out. Even the LDs offered one before GE2010 and changed their mind.

    It is funny that Mike still sticks to his 'no one gives a Monkeys' line in spite of the fact he will then claim that other issues which register lower are perhaps important.

    Once again we have to follow his reasoning to its logical conclusion and accept that no one gives a Monkeys about

    Fuel Prices
    Public Services
    Taxation
    The Environment
    Over Population
    Transport
    Devolution

    All of which scored lower than the EU in this latest poll.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I agree that they do not want to be absorbed by the Tories as the National Liberals were in the fifties or the coupon liberals of the twenties, or the free traders of the nineteenth century, but history has a habit of repeating itself.

    They will either have to campaign as willing to be coalition partners of either, or none, or effectively run as Labour fellow travelers. I see the potential partner of either is the most viable. If the election leaves NOC with Tories largest party, then they will have to accept the voters verdict and at least attempt reaching a new coalition agreement with the Tories.
    IOS said:

    Fox the best chance they will have is with us. And it is better for them strategically to have been in coalition with both Labour and the Tories.

    But it's their choice. They cannot live without Labour tactical voters in my opinion. So they best start sucking up.

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    IOS said:

    Fox the best chance they will have is with us. And it is better for them strategically to have been in coalition with both Labour and the Tories.

    But it's their choice. They cannot live without Labour tactical voters in my opinion. So they best start sucking up.

    Ed Davey better say nice things to me !
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Maywatch:

    'Britain helped stamp out slavery once – now Theresa May is trying to do the same again'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10259927/William-Wilberforces-heirs-are-ready-to-tackle-the-great-evil-of-the-age.html
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Carola said:

    Maywatch:

    'Britain helped stamp out slavery once – now Theresa May is trying to do the same again'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10259927/William-Wilberforces-heirs-are-ready-to-tackle-the-great-evil-of-the-age.html

    Replying to myself to get beyond comment 666.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,377
    New Thread
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The great sporting news just keeps on coming ;-)

    Great Britain showjumpers win European Championship gold,first time in 24 years

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/equestrian/23804968

    and latest

    HOCKEY England women reach EuroHockey final with 3-2 penalty shootout victory over the Netherlands after their match finished 1-1

    England women in final for first time since early 1990's.
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