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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015

A couple of weeks ago, Mike wrote about the potential number of Lib Dem lost deposits in 2015 and how the total of lost LD deposits which, if local trends continue, could run into the hundreds.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • No worries,

    Marque Senile will fund the party from all those investments in Greek growth. We all know when your at the bottom of a pit a shovel is the best tool to climb out of it, innit...?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    This might be helpful:

    50th worst performance last time: Glasgow South 11.8%
    75th worst performance last time: Croydon Central 13.2%
    100th worst performance last time: Croydon North 14.0%
    125th worst performance last time: Ashton under Lyne 14.8%
    150th worst performance last time: South Holland 15.5%

    If they start to lose deposits, then they start to topple like ninepins. On this logic either or both extremes are likely to provide the value.
  • Andy_JS said:
    Thanks Andy, I've added that link to the main thread.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited August 2013
    When PP first put up this market, 50 or fewer was 4/1. Fantastic value (thanks, Neil!). The 9/4 is probably still quite a good bet.

    Tissue Price is also I think right to point to the 150+ band. That's 9/2 on a catastrophic performance in seats where the LibDems will be making no effort. Can't be a bad bet.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Literally Mike Hancock and the by-election? See Guido.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Electoral Calculus's Strong Transition Model would probably be a reasonable way to look at this mathematically: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html

    What do we reckon the LD's national vote share is going to be? 13%?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    When PP first put up this market, 50 or fewer was 4/1. Fantastic value (thanks, Neil!). The 9/4 is probably still quite a good bet.

    Tissue Price is also I think right to point to the 150+ band. That's 9/2 on a catastrophic performance in seats where the LibDems will be making no effort. Can't be a bad bet.

    Will they put up candidates in no-hoper seats?

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    Will they put up candidates in no-hoper seats?

    Yes, I'm sure they will.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    @TelePolitics: David Cameron goes topless on Polzeath beach in Cornwall http://t.co/IcJw22WyaP

    I'm getting worried about you lad ;-)



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    O/T:

    England are currently 20 with Betfair to win the Oval Test Match. I think that's value because all they have to do is draw level with Australia and they're instantly favourites.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I am firmly of the view that the value is at the low end here. Tissue Price's logic is flawless, however, for those who are less sanguine than me about the Lib Dems' chances.

    Off topic, Ladbrokes have finally settled the bet on Jeremy Paxman's beard.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Tykejohnno

    It's all a bit Selfies In Underpants.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Tykejohno..tims obsession is a little worrying.. for tim .. he somehow sems to think it is an astute political observation ... getting quite excited now tho .. he has been posting those pics all day .
    Heaven forbid that some of a half naked Gordon Brown turn up .. calamity in Cheshire if a swimsuit clad Osborne comes on the scene.
    Nice to see someone come out of the closet so late in life, must be some sort of relief.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T:

    England are currently 20 with Betfair to win the Oval Test Match. I think that's value because all they have to do is draw level with Australia and they're instantly favourites.

    Except at their current rate of scoring they will not draw level until tea on the 4th day. Assuming they are still batting (fantasy land here) how long do they need to bat to get a lead? Say lunch on day 5. So 2 sessions to bowl Australia out. Not impossible but a very long bet. Even 20/1 is not good value IMO.

    Conversely they need to still be batting tonight to avoid the follow on. On this wicket they really should but if they lose wickets the scoring rate will fall even further.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    tim said:

    What's the overround on this market?
    In percentage terms

    Just the 139.6%. I'm not of the view that PP should be expected to price this as competitively as the 4.25 from Fontwell, but...

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T:

    England are currently 20 with Betfair to win the Oval Test Match. I think that's value because all they have to do is draw level with Australia and they're instantly favourites.

    Yes, but have you seen tomorrow's monsoon forecast?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    ‘Lost Deposits’ – “I’ve had a couple nibbles on the over 126 plus ranges.”

    Is it somewhat brave to assume the LibDems will have enough money to stump up those deposits in the first place?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    edited August 2013
    antifrank said:

    I am firmly of the view that the value is at the low end here. Tissue Price's logic is flawless, however, for those who are less sanguine than me about the Lib Dems' chances.

    Off topic, Ladbrokes have finally settled the bet on Jeremy Paxman's beard.

    I agree. My only reservation is Scotland. Lib Dem polling is terrible here and they could lose a large number of deposits in the seats they are not competing for. I would not be surprised if more than half their lost deposits are north of the border. Still think 50 gives some comfort though.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited August 2013
    The Lib Dems will stand everywhere, doing otherwise is not an option.

    An interesting stat is Lib Dem lost deposits in Scotland in 2011 (ok, different / smaller constituencies but still) was 25.

    I make it 16 lost deposits in Wales in the same year (from a quick scan of wiki so may have that slightly wrong).

    Sorry Richard - I dont think <50 is the value bet here!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Is it somewhat brave to assume the LibDems will have enough money to stump up those deposits in the first place?

    That pesky Daily Mail doing the LDs out of their rightful inheritance...

    [actually, I am of the view that that was very shoddy journalism that didn't do politics in general any favours]
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    DavidL said:

    My only reservation is Scotland.

    LDs are defending sub 15% in 35 Scottish seats, with a further 8 between 15-20%. (Then a big jump to 28.4%+)

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited August 2013
    ps Combined then I think the Lib Dems lost the equivalent of, what, 35 or so lost deposits in 2011 in Scotland and Wales alone. I dont see a huge improvement since then. Ok so in England there are fewer 4 party contests to eat into their share and Westminster contests are different but I think it would be brave to expect fewer lost deposits in England than Wales alone. If England is anything like Wales proportionately (taking into account fewer 4 way battles) then the value is at the higher end surely.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    When PP first put up this market, 50 or fewer was 4/1. Fantastic value (thanks, Neil!). The 9/4 is probably still quite a good bet.

    Tissue Price is also I think right to point to the 150+ band. That's 9/2 on a catastrophic performance in seats where the LibDems will be making no effort. Can't be a bad bet.

    <50 has no chance of winning, they'll lose 30 in Scotland</p>
    If they only lost 25 in Scotland in 2011 I doubt they'll lose as many as 30 in fewer contests there in 2015.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "Private Eye have self-confessed teen fondler’s Mike Hancock’s defence for his ongoing sexual harassment investigation. Apparently he considers the alleged victim allowing him into her home to amount to consent:

    “In order for Hancock to have access to [her] home she would have had to have let him in. In other words, she clearly consented to any actions about which she now makes complaint.”

    Good luck with that one. The full allegation is pretty dark:

    “It is not a trivial complaint that Hancock attempted to force his tongue into her mouth, that he tried to part her legs with his foot or that he exposed his penis and invited her to masturbate him. Nor is it a trivial complaint that Mr Hancock used his position and status as both an MP and councillor to target, groom and exploit for his own purposes a vulnerable woman.”" (Guido).

    Who could forget Scrutton LJ: “When you invite a person into your house to use the staircase you do not invite him to slide down the banisters”

    Bit more than sliding down the banisters..,

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Grandiose

    "sliding down the banisters..."

    A euphemism is born.
  • Root gone: Another England match in which the Yorkshire-collective fail to impress....
  • Does anyone have the General election turnout figures for Scotland in the GEs held in 1970 and 1974 (February & October)?

    If so, could your provide the figures/links.

    Ta.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Plato said:

    @Grandiose

    "sliding down the banisters..."

    A euphemism is born.

    As in 'Hiking The Appalachian Trail'.
  • Root gone: Another England match in which the Yorkshire-collective fail to impress....

    Top scorer in the innings, and he's the only Yorkshireman in the team, that's why England are struggling.

    Also, I owe Jade Dernbach and Samit Patel apologies, they're not the worst players to play for England.

    Step forward Chris Woakes and Simon Kerrigan.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited August 2013
    On topic, what really focussed my mind, was the loss of deposits in half of the GB wide by-elections in this parliament.

    They went from respectable third place finishes with 16% in Rotherham to 2.1% and finishing eighth behind the likes of the Judean People's Front and People's Front for Judea.

    http://tinyurl.com/mkyg4mj
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "Oh, it's you Plato. Do come in."
    ...
    "What on Earth do you think you're doing, Plato?"
    "Only sliding down the banisters."


    I can only assume that's only part of the defence, but I shan't speculate.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Love this stuff - macaws are jolly clever and tend to be very grumpy - I'd love one but a blue/yellow is about £2000!

    "A ‘hungry and dehydrated’ parrot that was picked up by two farmers in Suffolk shocked its rescuers when it took hold of the steering wheel of their combine harvester and drove home unaided for 20 minutes. The confident bird was found by Mark Wells and Andrew Barber, both 40, who work at the George E Gittus & Sons farm in Bury St Edmunds.

    Wells and Barber stopped harvesting wheat as soon as they spotted a spark of colour in the field, and jumped from their machine to pick the macaw from the stalks below. Believing the exotic bird to be a lost pet, the farmers decided to take it back with them in the hope they could trace its owner.

    What they didn’t expect, however, was to see the colourful macaw grasp the wheel with its beak before steering the Claas Lexion 600 combine across the field for 20 minutes before reaching the farmers’ truck. ‘It’s odd enough to find a bird like that just hopping around a field in England – but to stumble across a bird that can steer a combine harvester is crazy,’ said Georgie Wells, Mark’s wife. ‘It was amazing.’ The workers nicknamed the parrot Rio, describing him as a ‘natural operator’. http://metro.co.uk/2013/08/23/anything-but-beak-n-mild-macaw-takes-wheel-of-combine-harvester-and-drives-home-3935433/
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:

    @Neil

    They'll get slapped in Scotland in seats where they aren't contending

    Yes, but my point is that it's hard to get slapped much more than they did in Scotland in 2011. You're assuming the equivalent of up to 50% more lost deposits than in 2011 which I find difficult to justify.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    On topic, what really focussed my mind, was the loss of deposits in half of the GB wide by-elections in this parliament.

    By-elections are different though. There'll be fewer parties squeezing them in safe seats in 2015 in various places because nobody will be contesting the very safe seats.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    TSE - check message.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Grandiose said:

    "Oh, it's you Plato. Do come in."
    ...
    "What on Earth do you think you're doing, Plato?"
    "Only sliding down the banisters."


    I can only assume that's only part of the defence, but I shan't speculate.

    I'd post a cat video here but they've been banned.
  • Top scorer in the innings, and he's the only Yorkshireman in the team, that's why England are struggling.

    Also, I owe Jade Dernbach and Samit Patel apologies, they're not the worst players to play for England.

    Step forward Chris Woakes and Simon Kerrigan.

    Please remind everyone what you said about Ian Bell on day one of the first test; before he came out to bat! Then resume the position in the corner and suck your thumb....
  • Top scorer in the innings, and he's the only Yorkshireman in the team, that's why England are struggling.

    Also, I owe Jade Dernbach and Samit Patel apologies, they're not the worst players to play for England.

    Step forward Chris Woakes and Simon Kerrigan.

    Please remind everyone what you said about Ian Bell on day one of the first test; before he came out to bat! Then resume the position in the corner and suck your thumb....
    That was Southam, I'm a fan of Bell.
  • dr_spyn said:

    TSE - check message.

    Thank you

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Top scorer in the innings, and he's the only Yorkshireman in the team, that's why England are struggling.

    Also, I owe Jade Dernbach and Samit Patel apologies, they're not the worst players to play for England.

    Step forward Chris Woakes and Simon Kerrigan.

    Please remind everyone what you said about Ian Bell on day one of the first test; before he came out to bat! Then resume the position in the corner and suck your thumb....
    That was Southam, I'm a fan of Bell.
    A few posters were forecasting Bell's end.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I strongly disapprove of this "sliding down the banisters" analogy/metaphor. You really wouldn't want to slide down a banister.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    antifrank said:

    You really wouldn't want to slide down a banister.

    Mr Antifrank. - I think you are confusing Banisters with Barristers.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited August 2013
    antifrank said:

    I strongly disapprove of this "sliding down the banisters" analogy/metaphor. You really wouldn't want to slide down a banister.

    Or a barrister.

    NB I assume you are referring to the difference between a handrail and a banister - perhaps this is one of those cases where the wrong word is now in such wide use that it's literally becoming the right word?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim @SimonStCLare @Tissue_Price

    Off to CIF / ConHome with you all!
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited August 2013
    Off-topic:

    [Well apart from the fact that cricket is always on-topic....]

    I wonder if there is a clever bookie that is willing to tempt a bored puntah with an offering that England will fail to match the follow-on before the end of this test? * As Welshowl has pointed out the weather for tomorrow is poor: Sunday is just as bad according to the weather channel....

    * OK, no more Yorkshiremen to bat, but that is a doubled-edge sword. We all knew Bresnan could bat....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    Root gone: Another England match in which the Yorkshire-collective fail to impress....

    Top scorer in the innings, and he's the only Yorkshireman in the team, that's why England are struggling.

    Also, I owe Jade Dernbach and Samit Patel apologies, they're not the worst players to play for England.

    Step forward Chris Woakes and Simon Kerrigan.
    Having given the matter a great deal of thought I have concluded that the selectors wanted to see how few players England actually need to not get beat by Australia. Just in case there are enormous injury problems and all planes to the UK are cancelled. Or something.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Losing Deposits Losing Deposits
    Who'll come a-losing Deposits with me ?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    dont worry tim .. just because you have blown your cover there is no need to backtrack ... relax .. as they say..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Is a lost deposit based on a very low percentage of the vote or a very low number of votes?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Didn't watch P2 but the Red Bull times were some way ahead of the rest. Hope that won't prove the case tomorrow.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Neil said:

    @tim @SimonStCLare @Tissue_Price

    Off to CIF / ConHome with you all!

    Quite right. All these implied criticisms of barristers, not to mention porpoises, are very hurtful.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Eric uses Twitter Part 94

    Eric Pickles @EricPickles
    Come on #keighleytowncouncil ,and the rest, don't be so soft let the cameras in
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm surprised that three of our regular posters are not au fait with the more recent legal dramas, many of which feature copious amounts of sliding down barristers.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Scrutton LJ writing in 1928, getting his banisters and balustrades confused.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    antifrank said:

    I'm surprised that three of our regular posters are not au fait with the more recent legal dramas, many of which feature copious amounts of sliding down barristers.

    My wife always says that they are a bit odd down London way.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Median hourly income in London is now below 2002 levels, real wages in Britain have not risen since 2005, and the median income has been static or in decline since 2004. "

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/08/for-the-middle-classes-things-can-only-get-worse/
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Ed Balls not complacent...Labour support needs to be up in 40s...not one of his better live interviews. Must be hoping for some bad news to be buried today.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    I've been pondering.

    If Cameron resembles Steven Seagal, which actor does Ed Miliband resemble?

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Good afternoon, everyone.
    Is a lost deposit based on a very low percentage of the vote or a very low number of votes?

    Good afternoon, Mr Dancer. It's 5% of the valid votes.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    The Bill does make sense from a Tory point of view as officially independent but in reality Labour-aligned organisations has always been a way for Labour to get round the electoral rules and even up the funding. However I think the basic dishonesty of it is one of the things that rotted Labour.

    Having lots of rules especially for 12 months before any election seems a bit over-complicated though - better to have no rules and just ban it completely for six weeks before an election instead imo. Keep it simple.

    (Unless of course it's another thing claiming to be about whatever but really aimed at blogs and the internet.)

    Obviously leaving out the other bit of lobbying where lobbyists buy politicians to be paid PR reps for various corporatist or subsidy farming scams is a lot worse in most ways but if Labour get squeered on this (yes it's a made-up word and i don't care) then they might be forced into coming up with a more honest (and probably Scandinavian) form of political funding across the board.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Will they put up candidates in no-hoper seats?

    Much as I'm sure the two main parties will draft the rules in whichever way makes it possible to exclude UKIP from the debates (if held), I would imagine the LDs wouldn't want to have fewer candidates up than Nigel's party for fear of that argument being waved around.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. M, cheers for that. So, in a seat with 21 contenders it's theoretically possible for 20 of them to lose their deposits.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Gin 1138..Lassie..
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited August 2013

    Mr. M, cheers for that. So, in a seat with 21 contenders it's theoretically possible for 20 of them to lose their deposits.

    It's theoretically possible for all 21 of them to lose their deposits.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Neil, that'd be an interesting turn of events if the winner lost their deposit. I can't believe that's ever happened, though.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    GIN1138 said:

    I've been pondering.

    If Cameron resembles Steven Seagal, which actor does Ed Miliband resemble?

    Who was it played Screech in Saved by the Bell?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Neil said:

    It's theoretically possible for all 21 of them to lose their deposits.

    There'd be drama at the recount(s)!

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Morris_Dancer

    Yes, that's probably why it's only theoretically possible.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    MrJones said:

    FPT
    The Bill does make sense from a Tory point of view as officially independent but in reality Labour-aligned organisations has always been a way for Labour to get round the electoral rules and even up the funding. However I think the basic dishonesty of it is one of the things that rotted Labour.

    Having lots of rules especially for 12 months before any election seems a bit over-complicated though - better to have no rules and just ban it completely for six weeks before an election instead imo. Keep it simple.

    (Unless of course it's another thing claiming to be about whatever but really aimed at blogs and the internet.)

    Obviously leaving out the other bit of lobbying where lobbyists buy politicians to be paid PR reps for various corporatist or subsidy farming scams is a lot worse in most ways but if Labour get squeered on this (yes it's a made-up word and i don't care) then they might be forced into coming up with a more honest (and probably Scandinavian) form of political funding across the board.

    Ah, also FPT

    "Now here's a suggestion: why don't we all agree to forget about the whole nonsense and let people spend money and time on whatever campaigns they like?"

    Should have guessed it was going to be for a ****** political class reason like that.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited August 2013
    Neil said:


    Who was it played Screech in Saved by the Bell?

    Dustin Diamond

    Edit: linky - wikipedia.org/wiki/Dustin_Diamond
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MrJones said:

    Ah, also FPT

    "Now here's a suggestion: why don't we all agree to forget about the whole nonsense and let people spend money and time on whatever campaigns they like?"

    Should have guessed it was going to be for a ****** political class reason like that.

    That would have been my response if I'd been on the thread for more than 5 mins this morning. Or it'd definitely have had me wanting the Like button back. Will read the thread later and see if anything interesting was said, although I suspect you've found the highlight there.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: Suzuka extends its contract to 2018: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/23815025
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited August 2013
    Two new Bundestag polls:

    Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

    CDU/CSU: 41%
    FDP: 6%
    [47%]

    SPD: 25%
    Green: 13%
    Left: 8%
    [46%]

    Others: 7%

    Infratest dimap:

    CDU/CSU: 42%
    FDP: 5%
    [47%]

    SPD: 24%
    Green: 12%
    Left: 9%
    [45%]

    AfD: 3%
    Pirates: 2%
    Others: 3%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    @Tim
    "In those days they didn't believe the crime figures and claimed immigrants were taking all the jobs."

    Which crime figures?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/boys-quizzed-over-500-rapes-a-year-by-gangs-8335165.html

    Youth gangs are a natural thing and if the police harass the **** out of them then they can be kept down to say 4-6 individuals per estate. If for some reason the police are prevented from doing anything about a particular gang culture when it's small then it will grow. If it grows to the point where it's no longer 4-6 individuals per estate but say 18-24 of them then if say 6 of them do something, say gang-rape a girl who won't sleep with one of them voluntarily, then the family of the victim has to balance reporting it with the protection currently available from the law (minimal) and the threat of retaliation from the other 18 (very high).

    So what the BBC and political class have created on the inner-city hell estates through covering this up as it grew is effectively an organized crime problem where the threat of retaliation outweighs the protection of the law. It's a very disorganized and chaotic version of organized crime obviously but it's the same in that critical factor - the threat of retaliation outweighs the protection of the law. That's why these gangs can do what they like.

    The police can't do anything about it - apart from trawl for knives to keep the body-count down - because the public don't know it's happening and the public don't know it's happening because the BBC and the political class are covering it up like they covered up the grooming gangs.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited August 2013
    @Morris_Dancer @Neil

    I don't know what the deposit criterion was in Papua New Guinea under FPTP:

    2002 Papua New Guinea Election – Ijivitari

    Candidate Votes Pct
    John David Boino 2,042 6.6
    Cecilking DORUBA 2,397 7.7
    Douglas Garawa 1,633 5.3
    Benson Garui 2,092 6.7
    Russel Ikosi 1,819 5.9
    Simon Banamba Kaumi 2,241 7.2
    Solomon Kimai 1,638 5.3
    Jackson Marauri 1,606 5.2
    31 other candidates 15,600 50.2

    Doruba was elected with 7.7% of the vote, defeating the sitting MP Kaumi, who was defeated after polling just 7.2%.

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/04/candidate-elected-with-just-72-of-the-vote-under-fptp.html

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:

    @georgeeaton: Ed Balls on HS2 on @BBCNews: "There's no blank cheque from a Labour Treasury for HS2." Sounds very sceptical.

    What has changed since he was part of a Government that approved it for "partly party political" reasons?!

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited August 2013
    @Tissue_Price

    We should have a good old debate about electoral reform in PNG! ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Key partnership for England now. If these 2 don't get within spitting distance of the follow on it's all over. They don't look like they are going to get there tonight either.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    tim said:

    @georgeeaton: Ed Balls on HS2 on @BBCNews: "There's no blank cheque from a Labour Treasury for HS2." Sounds very sceptical.

    There should be no blank cheques; no-one is saying that there should.

    What there should be is an honest analysis of cost and benefits using standard processes. Instead what we are having are groups inventing figures to meet their own worldview.

    Darling's assumption that if HS2 is cancelled, the money would be spent on the rest of the network is rather funny! But not as ludicrous as his claim that the WCML had been ignored for thirty years ...

    I'm half-expecting Labour to announce that if they win the election, HS2 will be cancelled with the money going into renationalisation of the network ...
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Hopi slideshare on Labour polling 2010-13:

    http://hopisen.com/?p=5807
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    There have been quite a few comments on here recently about increasing bond rates in the UK. Although I think this is being largely driven by interest rate expectations this article points to another factor: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10260693/Emerging-market-rout-threatens-wider-global-economy.html

    As the emerging economies run down their holdings to protect their currencies there will be a lot of selling pressure. This may be particularly acute in London which had one of the deepest and most liquid markets that attracted more than it's fair share of this money.

    In the long run this is a good thing. If more of our debt is owned domestically and less internationally the interest on it will be less of a drag on our growth. In the short run it will push up medium to longer term interest rates perhaps putting something of a dampener on the rapid growth of business investment reported this morning.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    GeoffM said:

    Will they put up candidates in no-hoper seats?

    Much as I'm sure the two main parties will draft the rules in whichever way makes it possible to exclude UKIP from the debates (if held), I would imagine the LDs wouldn't want to have fewer candidates up than Nigel's party for fear of that argument being waved around.

    Why would the Labour Party wish to exclude UKIP? If I were Ed Milliband (or Nick Clegg for that matter) I would be lobbying hard for UKIP's inclusion.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    DavidL said:

    There have been quite a few comments on here recently about increasing bond rates in the UK. Although I think this is being largely driven by interest rate expectations this article points to another factor: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10260693/Emerging-market-rout-threatens-wider-global-economy.html

    As the emerging economies run down their holdings to protect their currencies there will be a lot of selling pressure. This may be particularly acute in London which had one of the deepest and most liquid markets that attracted more than it's fair share of this money.

    In the long run this is a good thing. If more of our debt is owned domestically and less internationally the interest on it will be less of a drag on our growth. In the short run it will push up medium to longer term interest rates perhaps putting something of a dampener on the rapid growth of business investment reported this morning.

    I met today with the CEO of a company quoted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in this column (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10257988/Polands-shale-drive-will-transform-Europe-if-it-does-not-drop-the-ball.html) and he basically said that Pritchard invented a whole bunch of quotes and misrepresented him.

    Which rather puts me off taking him seriously on anything anymore.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Andy_JS said:

    Two new Bundestag polls:

    Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

    CDU/CSU: 41%
    FDP: 6%
    [47%]

    SPD: 25%
    Green: 13%
    Left: 8%
    [46%]

    Others: 7%

    Infratest dimap:

    CDU/CSU: 42%
    FDP: 5%
    [47%]

    SPD: 24%
    Green: 12%
    Left: 9%
    [45%]

    AfD: 3%
    Pirates: 2%
    Others: 3%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

    According to my friend in German politics, the SPD is not ready to get into bed with Linke, and that the Greens are also not very keen on a deal with the ex-Communists. He therefore reckons the chance of a 'Left' coalition are very slim.

    He reckons that a grand coalition is the most likely outcome - whatever the SPD is currently saying. This - according to him - means Germany will become considerably more willing to allow ECB money printing, a little bit of inflation, and the end of 'the austerity drive'.

    We shall see.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    There have been quite a few comments on here recently about increasing bond rates in the UK. Although I think this is being largely driven by interest rate expectations this article points to another factor: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10260693/Emerging-market-rout-threatens-wider-global-economy.html

    As the emerging economies run down their holdings to protect their currencies there will be a lot of selling pressure. This may be particularly acute in London which had one of the deepest and most liquid markets that attracted more than it's fair share of this money.

    In the long run this is a good thing. If more of our debt is owned domestically and less internationally the interest on it will be less of a drag on our growth. In the short run it will push up medium to longer term interest rates perhaps putting something of a dampener on the rapid growth of business investment reported this morning.

    I met today with the CEO of a company quoted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in this column (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10257988/Polands-shale-drive-will-transform-Europe-if-it-does-not-drop-the-ball.html) and he basically said that Pritchard invented a whole bunch of quotes and misrepresented him.

    Which rather puts me off taking him seriously on anything anymore.
    That was a curious article. It read like he had had it published when he was half finished it. OTOH I think it is clear that India and several other emerging economies (such as Brasil) are having to intervene in the market and the money to do that has to come from somewhere.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    No-one other than me been posting for half an hour? Is everything very slow, or is there a glitch? If you've tried to comment and not been able to, then drop me an email using my username and gmail.com
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    rcs1000 said:

    No-one other than me been posting for half an hour? Is everything very slow, or is there a glitch? If you've tried to comment and not been able to, then drop me an email using my username and gmail.com

    Too many watching England bat. Soporific would be generous.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited August 2013
    According to R5L a councillor has resigned in Rotherham about a story in today's Times. Apparently some victims of abuse there are suing the council, but why has this particular councillor resigned; MODERATED

    I hate paywalls. I wish the newspapers could get together and give you a pay-per-story approach.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013

    According to R5L a councillor has resigned in Rotherham about a story in today's Times. Apparently some victims of abuse there are suing the council, but why has this particular councillor resigned;MODERATED
    I hate paywalls. I wish the newspapers could get together and give you a pay-per-story approach.

    The Times doesn't name any councillors but four girls are taking the council to court. The article will I assume be reproduced in part in the DT or Mail shortly. It's appalling.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    rcs1000 said:

    No-one other than me been posting for half an hour? Is everything very slow, or is there a glitch? If you've tried to comment and not been able to, then drop me an email using my username and gmail.com

    Dan Hodges hasn't posted about Ed Miliband on the Telegraph site today, which always slows the PB Tories rate down.

    We have all gone pictorial, tim.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,262
    edited August 2013
    rcs1000 said:



    According to my friend in German politics, the SPD is not ready to get into bed with Linke, and that the Greens are also not very keen on a deal with the ex-Communists. He therefore reckons the chance of a 'Left' coalition are very slim.

    He reckons that a grand coalition is the most likely outcome - whatever the SPD is currently saying. This - according to him - means Germany will become considerably more willing to allow ECB money printing, a little bit of inflation, and the end of 'the austerity drive'.

    We shall see.

    Yes, there is zero chance of a coalition with the Linke - they are seen as viable partners at state level where they have a number of competent and pragmatic state leaders who primarily want to get the best results, but there are too many fundamental disagreements at national level - the whole free enterprise model, NATO, etc. - where they are seen as reckless populists. They are in reality an uneasy coalition between former GDR Communist manager types - who sometimes are sensible enough to deal with and represent 25% or so of the former GDR voters - and hard left westerners, who are reminiscent of Respect in Britain and see their eastern partners as far too willing to work with other parties.

    It'll be an interesting forerunner of British politics in one way - the FDP (free-market pro-business liberals, quite a bit to the right of the British)) are clearly going to get hammered, but not nearly as massively as once seemed likely. Merkel might well like carrying on with them - a weakened junior partner seems a restful option. But will they feel oh God, we nearly got wiped out, we need some time in opposition, or hey cool, we did much better than we feared, let's carry on?

  • Here is the judgment of the Divisional Court in an application for interim relief by the claimant in Regina (on the application of Miranda) v Secretary of State for the Home Department and the Commissioner of the Police of the Metropolis [2013] EWHC 2609 (Admin).
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2013

    According to R5L a councillor has resigned in Rotherham about a story in today's Times. Apparently some victims of abuse there are suing the council, but why has this particular councillor resigned; apparently he was named in the story?

    I hate paywalls. I wish the newspapers could get together and give you a pay-per-story approach.

    BBC Look North ‏@BBCLookNorth 4m

    Deputy leader of Rotherham Council Jahangir Akhtar has stood down. It's over allegations made in The Times today. More @BBCLookNorth 1830

    Save your money - just wait an hour then watch BBC.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There would be something very pleasing about Britain having a seminal human rights case called Miranda to match the US seminal human rights case called Miranda.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    According to R5L a councillor has resigned in Rotherham about a story in today's Times. Apparently some victims of abuse there are suing the council, but why has this particular councillor resigned; apparently he was named in the story?

    I hate paywalls. I wish the newspapers could get together and give you a pay-per-story approach.

    BBC Look North ‏@BBCLookNorth 4m

    Deputy leader of Rotherham Council Jahangir Akhtar has stood down. It's over allegations made in The Times today. More @BBCLookNorth 1830

    Save your money - just wait an hour then watch BBC.
    Thanks for that; and apologies to the moderator for my earlier post.

    It is sometimes quite hard to know how to word something on PB, especially when mentioning something you have heard on the radio.

    Apparently he has temporarily stepped down.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    rcs1000 said:



    According to my friend in German politics, the SPD is not ready to get into bed with Linke, and that the Greens are also not very keen on a deal with the ex-Communists. He therefore reckons the chance of a 'Left' coalition are very slim.

    He reckons that a grand coalition is the most likely outcome - whatever the SPD is currently saying. This - according to him - means Germany will become considerably more willing to allow ECB money printing, a little bit of inflation, and the end of 'the austerity drive'.

    We shall see.

    Yes, there is zero chance of a coalition with the Linke - they are seen as viable partners at state level where they have a number of competent and pragmatic state leaders who primarily want to get the best results, but there are too many fundamental disagreements at national level - the whole free enterprise model, NATO, etc. - where they are seen as reckless populists. They are in reality an uneasy coalition between former GDR Communist manager types - who sometimes are sensible enough to deal with and represent 25% or so of the former GDR voters - and hard left westerners, who are reminiscent of Respect in Britain and see their eastern partners as far too willing to work with other parties.

    It'll be an interesting forerunner of British politics in one way - the FDP (free-market pro-business liberals, quite a bit to the right of the British)) are clearly going to get hammered, but not nearly as massively as once seemed likely. Merkel might well like carrying on with them - a weakened junior partner seems a restful option. But will they feel oh God, we nearly got wiped out, we need some time in opposition, or hey cool, we did much better than we feared, let's carry on?

    I am doubtful that the FDP are going to get hammered as you put it . They are certainly going to be down on last time but that was an exceptionally good tesult for them and I have a suspicion that they will end up nearer 10% than 5% and a continuation of the current alliance is more likely than a grand alliance .
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @JosiasJessop

    The gist.

    " Four women are planning to sue Rotherham Council for “systemic failures to protect them from sexual abuse by predatory men when they were children”, according to their lawyers...

    A girl in the care of social services was allowed extensive daily contact with a violent adult offender who was suspected of grooming more than a dozen young teenagers to use and sell for sex. Police and social services held detailed intelligence about the activities of Arshid Hussain. He has not, however, yet been prosecuted for a child-sex offence." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/crime/article3851263.ece
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    There would be something very pleasing about Britain having a seminal human rights case called Miranda to match the US seminal human rights case called Miranda.

    Lol - like comparing Martin Luther King with Rodney King....

This discussion has been closed.