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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov polling round up

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov polling round up

As ever, this is one poll, we need to see more polling to see if this is an outlier or the start of a new trend, it was only a month a go, we saw a Populus poll in the aftermath of the vans campaign, that saw the Tories drop 5 and saw UKIP up by 4, that turned out to be an outlier.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ICM please.
  • JackW said:

    ICM please.

    We won't be getting an ICM for at least a fortnight.

    I'm hoping we get the ComRes phone poll tomorrow night
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    ICM please.

    We won't be getting an ICM for at least a fortnight.

    I'm hoping we get the ComRes phone poll tomorrow night
    No ICM or ARSE for at least two weeks - Not good enough.

    Signed :

    Disgusted of Auchentennach

    And

    Even More Disgusted of Harpenden.

  • It's difficult to see how a nine point rise on EdM's rating can be spun as a negative. I suspect that almost all of that has come from Labour supporters. A few of us thought that might be the only meaningful polling result of last week's events. I'd be surprised if the Labour jump were not an outlier. The other ratings are within the normal range.
  • It's difficult to see how a nine point rise on EdM's rating can be spun as a negative. I suspect that almost all of that has come from Labour supporters. A few of us thought that might be the only meaningful polling result of last week's events. I'd be surprised if the Labour jump were not an outlier. The other ratings are within the normal range.

    I wasn't spinning the 9 point improvement as a negative.

    It was on the specific Leadership over Syria that isn't good for him. IMHO

  • This is pretty much what you'd expect from the combination of "shambles" headlines and the opposition scoring a hit. I doubt it's particularly an outlier, although the effect may not last long. These things can take a bit of time to filter through so I wouldn't be surprised to see more movement in the next day or two. If the Tories keep their heads it should then subside, but if Cameron gets unlucky with the MoE he could end up in a negative-narrative -> negative-polling spiral.

    I don't think anyone here agrees with me on this but I think Cameron's position could be in danger in the next week or two. That's not to say that losing the vote is the end of the world or that he's doing disastrously badly or anything, but the party rules just make it really easy for a small number of people to spark a vote of confidence without even having anything like a functioning plot, and if they did that right now, I don't think he'd win it.
  • It's difficult to see how a nine point rise on EdM's rating can be spun as a negative. I suspect that almost all of that has come from Labour supporters. A few of us thought that might be the only meaningful polling result of last week's events. I'd be surprised if the Labour jump were not an outlier. The other ratings are within the normal range.

    I wasn't spinning the 9 point improvement as a negative.

    It was on the specific Leadership over Syria that isn't good for him. IMHO

    The overall rise in his leadership rating contextualises the specifics of the Syria question. A sitting PM will always have an advantage when global events strike.

  • @Edmund.

    I do agree with you re Dave being at risk.

    I'd say about a month because of the timing of the Tory conference.

    I was hoping to do that piece today but it will have to wait until tomorrow as I'm off to see Liverpool between Manchester United (i hope) this afternoon
  • Just as predicted by yours truly.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    You can read this

    The Sunday Times @thesundaytimes
    A poll of more than 20,000, commissioned by Lord Ashcroft, has found that voters feel immigration hurts the UK thetim.es/15pLxUa (Free)

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/public/article1308078.ece
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited September 2013
    I dont want to lose my reputation for being the worst tipster on here but the enormous +6 in Labour's fortunes was predicted by me after lunch and before the evening vote.

    I said it would make as big a difference to the polling as Osborne's budget. I simply had lunch with four non political friends from advertising who were more aghast at the Governments proposed action than at anything since before the election.

    The point to learn is that Mike has gathererd in this community of political anoraks a very skewed sample. Tories were being booed on 'Any Questions'. Incoherent Dianne Abbott was being cheered. People were talking about it in cafe's and bars. People were angry. Yet none of the blue notes on here saw it.

    Cameron and co live in a bubble. They just didn't see anything. My big fear was that Miliband might live in it too. If he can do what the Lib Dems did and build on it he should sail through the next election because whoever Cameron hires wont stop him from being completely out of touch



  • It's difficult to see how a nine point rise on EdM's rating can be spun as a negative. I suspect that almost all of that has come from Labour supporters. A few of us thought that might be the only meaningful polling result of last week's events. I'd be surprised if the Labour jump were not an outlier. The other ratings are within the normal range.

    I wasn't spinning the 9 point improvement as a negative.

    It was on the specific Leadership over Syria that isn't good for him. IMHO

    The overall rise in his leadership rating contextualises the specifics of the Syria question. A sitting PM will always have an advantage when global events strike.

    Also a neutral person is going to tend to score "showing leadership on X" to the person who is advocating doing X, not the person advocating not doing X or advocating being more cautious about doing X. This is true even if they agree with the latter person about X.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This is rather fun

    "The world of journalism was rocked to its foundations last night as a top newsman claimed to have discovered the secret of "journalese".

    Amid chaotic scenes, a press bigwig launched a foul-mouthed tirade at this effort to expose the secret language used by highly trained professionals to make their stories sound more exciting. A raft of top-level crisis talks were set to take place today behind closed doors in an 11th-hour bid to defuse this calculated snub.

    The Independent on Sunday has learnt that Bloomberg political reporter Robert Hutton's book, Romps, Tots and Boffins, is published this month by Elliott & Thompson. This newspaper understands from senior sources close to the publisher's publicity department that the book contains a guide to those words never used in normal life, such as "floral tributes" and "TV funnyman"... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/boffin-lifts-the-lid-on-journalese-a-new-book-puts-spotlight-on-newspaper-tricks-and-a-raft-of-redfaced-clichs-8793022.html
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    This is pretty much what you'd expect from the combination of "shambles" headlines and the opposition scoring a hit. I doubt it's particularly an outlier, although the effect may not last long. These things can take a bit of time to filter through so I wouldn't be surprised to see more movement in the next day or two. If the Tories keep their heads it should then subside, but if Cameron gets unlucky with the MoE he could end up in a negative-narrative -> negative-polling spiral.

    I don't think anyone here agrees with me on this but I think Cameron's position could be in danger in the next week or two. That's not to say that losing the vote is the end of the world or that he's doing disastrously badly or anything, but the party rules just make it really easy for a small number of people to spark a vote of confidence without even having anything like a functioning plot, and if they did that right now, I don't think he'd win it.

    Do the party rebels have someone in mind ? Oh yes, that Adam Afriyie chappie.

    Tory rules then allow th eserious candidates to come in at the second round. May has kept her profile low.

    My take is that this will not damage Cameron too much in the short term. The rebels will be gloating amongst themselves for a while but a drip-drip long term view of his lack of organisational ability alongwith an already existing narrative that he does not understand most of the Tory MP's, let alone the rank and file.

    Miliband's Syria handling and personal ratings see to contradict each other considering both are coming from the same sample.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Roger wrote :

    "I dont want to lose my reputation for being the worst tipster on here ...."

    Fear not Roger some of the finer PB traditions are inviolate.
  • "Miliband's Syria handling and personal ratings see to contradict each other considering both are coming from the same sample."

    Related to two days of furious counter-spin from No.10 and the tory papers. Still has had little effect on the overall direction of travel hough.
  • Plato said:

    You can read this

    The Sunday Times @thesundaytimes
    A poll of more than 20,000, commissioned by Lord Ashcroft, has found that voters feel immigration hurts the UK thetim.es/15pLxUa (Free)

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/public/article1308078.ece

    These are stunning findings that show just how little attention is paid to immigration policy.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2013
    I think the details will show it more clearly but I think Edmund has a point. The divergence between Miliband's improvement in his own personal ratings and Syria handling could be down to Labour voters re: his personal ratings. His ratings in the eyes of Labour voters must have gone up, not surprisingly.. He was, after all, lagging behind the party.

    I do not think this is necessarily an outlier. But may only have a short term effect until Syria goes off the radar for most people.
  • It's not surprising to see Labour get an immediate boost from being the peace party. Will it last? Not without something else to sustain it. However, it has given the public another chance to look at Ed Miliband. Will they change their view of him? He needs to do something quickly to capitalise on the opportunity.

    Is David Cameron at risk? He might stand down. One thing the vote showed is how many Conservatives simply don't care very much about loyalty to their leader. I doubt they have a replacement in mind, but they just aren't very interested in backing their man. Personally I think that's a good thing.
  • surbiton said:


    Do the party rebels have someone in mind ? Oh yes, that Adam Afriyie chappie.

    The beauty of the system is that the 46 people who have to send in letters can all have different people in mind. So you start with 15 people with grudges who would take anybody, then have a dozen for May, half a dozen each for Hammond, Gove and Davis and fill out with a couple of people who think Dave's about to fire them in the reshuffle and Bob's your uncle.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-no-vote-hardens-up-to-59-1-3070088

    Fitalass was linking this last night. May have been a different newspaper. My 2-1 rule for referendums is slowly establishing itself.
  • surbiton said:

    This is pretty much what you'd expect from the combination of "shambles" headlines and the opposition scoring a hit. I doubt it's particularly an outlier, although the effect may not last long. These things can take a bit of time to filter through so I wouldn't be surprised to see more movement in the next day or two. If the Tories keep their heads it should then subside, but if Cameron gets unlucky with the MoE he could end up in a negative-narrative -> negative-polling spiral.

    I don't think anyone here agrees with me on this but I think Cameron's position could be in danger in the next week or two. That's not to say that losing the vote is the end of the world or that he's doing disastrously badly or anything, but the party rules just make it really easy for a small number of people to spark a vote of confidence without even having anything like a functioning plot, and if they did that right now, I don't think he'd win it.

    Do the party rebels have someone in mind ? Oh yes, that Adam Afriyie chappie.

    Tory rules then allow th eserious candidates to come in at the second round. May has kept her profile low.

    My take is that this will not damage Cameron too much in the short term. The rebels will be gloating amongst themselves for a while but a drip-drip long term view of his lack of organisational ability alongwith an already existing narrative that he does not understand most of the Tory MP's, let alone the rank and file.

    Miliband's Syria handling and personal ratings see to contradict each other considering both are coming from the same sample.

    That wouldn't be the profoundly unambitious Adam Afriyie who with a "heavy-heart" could not support the government motion last week, would it?

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Plato said:
    I don't know every Tory points to the same article. Fitalass last night and now Plato doing the morning shift. It only names one MP. And some "Blairites".
  • "URL says it all http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10278338/Syrian-crisis-Ed-Miliband-faces-growing-criticism-from-Labour-ranks.html"

    Return of the Blairite summer briefers, whose August project is in ashes. Now they're on the wrong side of public opinion and international events.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/01/david-cameron-defeat-syria

    Tories occasionally link Andrew Rawnsley some time. I would like to return the compliment.
  • surbiton said:

    Plato said:
    I don't know every Tory points to the same article. Fitalass last night and now Plato doing the morning shift. It only names one MP. And some "Blairites".

    Funnily enough we did not get many links to the articles in yesterday's Times and Telegraph on the absolute shambles that Downing Street presided over last week. Once you read those the real reasons why the Tories are attacking Ed and Labour become apparent. "Is that, perchance, a squirrel over there?" said one "furious" No. 10 spokesman.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That's not to say that losing the vote is the end of the world or that he's doing disastrously badly or anything, but the party rules just make it really easy for a small number of people to spark a vote of confidence without even having anything like a functioning plot, and if they did that right now, I don't think he'd win it.

    I disagree - unless there was a well developed and credible alternative (i.e. not Adam Afriyie) then the party would rally behind him. May and the other serious contenders would row in behind him on this occasion: it would be seen as an entirely opportunistic attack by Cameron-haters.
  • @surbiton Andrew Rawnsley is correct that this is a Downing Street fiasco from start to finish. But by their nature, Downing Street fiascos relating to matters of international relations have much wider implications for the nation. It's not as though the rest of us can shrug our shoulders and say: "that Tony Blair, what a schmuck he was for taking us into the Iraq war" and pretend that the rest of the country is somehow immune from further commentary on the matter.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Jack


    "Fear not Roger some of the finer PB traditions are inviolate."

    Thanks Jack! You and I sit at opposite ends of the tipping scale
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:



    Cameron and co live in a bubble. They just didn't see anything. ... whoever Cameron hires wont stop him from being completely out of touch

    Was at home over the weekend & my Mum made an interesting comment. She sat next to Cameron at dinner a few weeks ago and her reaction afterwards was "this man doesn't know how to listen".

    NB: not that he *doesn't* listen, but that he doesn't know *how to* listen
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    There is a credible alternative in Theresa May,a politician of substance and the personification of competence,all that Cameron is not!
  • Charles said:

    That's not to say that losing the vote is the end of the world or that he's doing disastrously badly or anything, but the party rules just make it really easy for a small number of people to spark a vote of confidence without even having anything like a functioning plot, and if they did that right now, I don't think he'd win it.

    I disagree - unless there was a well developed and credible alternative (i.e. not Adam Afriyie) then the party would rally behind him. May and the other serious contenders would row in behind him on this occasion: it would be seen as an entirely opportunistic attack by Cameron-haters.
    There's a price to pay for disunity which would keep most MPs from supporting a challenge, but the problem is that once the 15% have forced one on the party, the price has already been paid. If you've got to pay the bill anyhow, you may as well eat the main course.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    surbiton said:


    Do the party rebels have someone in mind ? Oh yes, that Adam Afriyie chappie.

    The beauty of the system is that the 46 people who have to send in letters can all have different people in mind. So you start with 15 people with grudges who would take anybody, then have a dozen for May, half a dozen each for Hammond, Gove and Davis and fill out with a couple of people who think Dave's about to fire them in the reshuffle and Bob's your uncle.
    You're assuming that the people who support May et al would send in letter without checking first with their intended. Unlikely I suspect - and equially if the numbers go above, say, 30 I am sure the Chairman of the 22 (I think it is him who gets them?) would surely tip off no 10. I know Graham Brady is a self-important prat, but he has no interest in chaos. This would likely result in May et al putting pressure on their supporters to withdraw their letters... unless and until they are ready to move...
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349

    I'm not surprised that Labour have an uplift in the polling. The mood of the country on Syria is for a bit of "dithering", a wait-and-see policy (as is my view).

    Whether that feeling extends to a five-year PM who dithers may be another matter.
  • surbiton said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/01/david-cameron-defeat-syria

    Tories occasionally link Andrew Rawnsley some time. I would like to return the compliment.

    Mr Rawnsley has returned! I thought Guido had driven him out of the country.

  • "URL says it all http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10278338/Syrian-crisis-Ed-Miliband-faces-growing-criticism-from-Labour-ranks.html"

    Return of the Blairite summer briefers, whose August project is in ashes. Now they're on the wrong side of public opinion and international events.

    That Telegraph piece looks ridiculous in the light of this morning's YouGov poll.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SMukesh said:

    There is a credible alternative in Theresa May,a politician of substance and the personification of competence,all that Cameron is not!

    You missed the "well developed" element.

    She is credible, but I don't believe she would win if she challenged now. A good chance of winning the leadership next time round - either 2020 or 2015 depending on your views. Provided, of course, she continues to perform.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    @antifrank

    ` He needs to do something quickly to capitalise on the opportunity.`

    Luckily he needs to do nothing else this time but to have a good conference in September.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Golly - quite a story about Gordon Taylor and betting industry http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/dominiclawson/article1307543.ece

  • "URL says it all http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10278338/Syrian-crisis-Ed-Miliband-faces-growing-criticism-from-Labour-ranks.html"

    Return of the Blairite summer briefers, whose August project is in ashes. Now they're on the wrong side of public opinion and international events.

    That Telegraph piece looks ridiculous in the light of this morning's YouGov poll.

    If you read the story, it actually bears very little relation to the headline.

  • tim said:

    Rawnsley gets it.
    We are used to Cameron putting chum before country, on Thursday, following remarkable incompetence, he put his own pride before country.

    "Here we come to the strange twists in the tale and why I call it a needless debacle. To anyone watching, it was clear that the government was shedding support as the evening wore on. Tories point the finger at Nick Clegg. He certainly floundered in his closing speech, but it was evident even before he got to his feet that the government was in serious trouble. Some Tory whips claim they had warned Mr Cameron he was heading for disaster several hours before the vote. Could he have averted defeat? Yes. He could have accepted the Labour amendment, an option which was available right up to the moment when the vote was called. After all, several pro-government speakers had already contended that the motions were almost indistinguishable. Embracing the Labour words might have pierced the prime minister's pride, but it would have saved him from defeat and left the door ajar for joining military action once there had been activity at the UN and the weapons inspectors had reported.

    Mr Cameron did not take that escape route.

    Even when his defeat had been announced, to thunderstruck faces on the government frontbench, it need not have been all over. Ed Miliband got up to ask for a guarantee from the prime minister that he would not use the prerogative powers to join action regardless of the wishes of parliament. Mr Cameron could have simply given that reassurance. It was his choice to declare – snapping "We get that" – that there was now no prospect of Britain's involvement."

    That pretty much sums it up. And it explains all the squirrel stuff now being spouted by the Tories.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2013
    Charles said:

    Roger said:



    Cameron and co live in a bubble. They just didn't see anything. ... whoever Cameron hires wont stop him from being completely out of touch

    Was at home over the weekend & my Mum made an interesting comment. She sat next to Cameron at dinner a few weeks ago and her reaction afterwards was "this man doesn't know how to listen".

    NB: not that he *doesn't* listen, but that he doesn't know *how to* listen
    Charles, your mum just hit the nail. Listening , as distinct from hearing, is a politician's biggest asset. Blair was not much different from Cameron because both have this rather superior attitude that they know best.

    I once heard a story about Helmut Kohl [ the same possibly goes for Angela Merkel ]. Whenever, he met some lowly party official he had met before, he addressed him by his name. Such small things matter a lot to the foot soldiers.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    Nice to see Andrew Marr back and doing well.A tribute to the medical professionals who treated him
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited September 2013
    @SO

    "It's difficult to see how a nine point rise on EdM's rating can be spun as a negative.....A few of us thought that might be the only meaningful polling result of last week's events."

    I remember both you and NickP saying the same that this wouldn't affect polling either way which for non Tories surprised me.

    I can't remember being more certain of anything. Just everywhere I went people were exercised. I knew it had to have an effect. I can only think that like me most of your political talk is done on here. Just sometimes it's worth being reminded what a very skewed political sample post on here. They're basically fanatical loyalists. Just read some of the stuff from the normally excellent Nabavi over the last few days. They read like Fitilass.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited September 2013
    Don't know if this bit is behind the paywall or not

    "Not surprisingly, attitudes to immigration are far from uniform. My analysis reveals seven segments of opinion on the subject. At one end of the scale is the “universal hostility” group, 9 out of 10 of whom name controlling immigration as one of the most important issues facing Britain, with almost as many saying their area has changed for the worse because of it. At the other end are the “militantly multicultural”, dominated by graduates and professionals, and with a significant public-sector contingent, most of whom believe immigrants have enhanced the life, culture and economy of Britain — and who are twice as likely as the population as a whole to have employed immigrants to do cleaning or building jobs at home..." Ashcroft commentary to poll http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/public/article1307359.ece

    All the data is here http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/09/public-opinion-and-the-politics-of-immigration/#more-2428
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    edited September 2013
    Roger said:

    @SO

    "It's difficult to see how a nine point rise on EdM's rating can be spun as a negative.....A few of us thought that might be the only meaningful polling result of last week's events."

    I remember both you and NickP saying the same that this wouldn't affect polling either way which for non Tories surprised me.

    I can't remember being more certain of anything. Just everywhere I went people were exercised. I knew it had to have an effect. I can only think that like me most of your political talk is done on here. Just sometimes it's worth being reminded what a very skewed political sample post on here. They're basically fanatical loyalists. Just read some of the stuff from the normally excellent Nabavi over the last few days. They read like Fitilass.

    It will not have the effect it should have if the press were a little bit more honest and not spin everything to the benefit of Cameron though I understand that the Sunday Times editorials are surprisingly devastating!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''so he carries on in the same gilded circle he has existed in his whole life.''

    Agreed. David Cameron is such an out of touch brideshead toff that he put going to war to to a parliamentary vote, something right on man of the people tony blair never did.

    It proved so unpopular than the world's most powerful democracy decided to do it as well.
  • There's a voting intention question in the Ashcroft poll. (excluding don't knows)

    Con: 27%, Lab: 38%, LD: 9%, UKIP: 18%.

    Full tables, p.23

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Immigration-Poll-Full-tables.pdf

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/09/public-opinion-and-the-politics-of-immigration/

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    And Sunny adds his 2p http://www.britishfuture.org/articles/news/immigration-debate-changing/

    "Ashcroft’s polling for the report captures how most people recognise both pressures and benefits from immigration. Six out of ten see the disadvantages currently outweighing the benefits, but people’s most common personal experience of migrants is in being treated by doctors and nurses in the NHS (83%), while 36% perceive a negative impact on job prospects for them or their family, and 24% say the same about access to housing or public services. 36% say the scale of immigration has changed their local area for the worse, while 37% disagree.

    The poll shows that migrants are seen as hard-working, and as the opposite too. The most commonly cited benefit (49%) is that migrants do jobs that need doing but which British people don’t want to do; yet the biggest concern about immigrants, cited by 62%, is that migrants claim benefits and use services without contributing.
  • Does anyone have the Syrian body count for this week..thats really what this is all about isn't it?
  • Let's be honest, its not been a good week for Cameron, Milliband and Clegg, but it has been a good week for the British public, and armed forces, even if the result was achieved more by luck (or incompetence) than judgement.
    Reading the Sunday papers, Tony Blair really has some neck on him, he must buy Brasso by the tanker full.
  • Ashcroft poll. p.15

    The 'don't knows' are: 2010 Con: 13%, 2010 Lab: 9%, 2010 LD: 21%
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:



    Cameron and co live in a bubble. They just didn't see anything. ... whoever Cameron hires wont stop him from being completely out of touch

    Was at home over the weekend & my Mum made an interesting comment. She sat next to Cameron at dinner a few weeks ago and her reaction afterwards was "this man doesn't know how to listen".

    NB: not that he *doesn't* listen, but that he doesn't know *how to* listen
    That's why he surrounds himself with people of the same social class as himself, it's not important that he hears other views, so he carries on in the same gilded circle he has existed in his whole life.
    It's not a question of social class. It's a question of attitude. I have a very very similar trajectory to Cameron (except that I have chosen not to go into public service and am a bit younger). But I'm not as blinkered as he is.
  • Does anyone have the Syrian body count for this week..thats really what this is all about isn't it?

    And lobbing a few missiles, prematurely, would decrease the suffering of the Syrian people how, exactly?

  • SO - that's how the media narrative works and how it can take time to change.

    The danger for Dave now is that the media narrative could move against him.

    As I've said I think all three parties would do better with different leaders.


    "URL says it all http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10278338/Syrian-crisis-Ed-Miliband-faces-growing-criticism-from-Labour-ranks.html"

    Return of the Blairite summer briefers, whose August project is in ashes. Now they're on the wrong side of public opinion and international events.

    That Telegraph piece looks ridiculous in the light of this morning's YouGov poll.

    If you read the story, it actually bears very little relation to the headline.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    but it has been a good week for the British public, and armed forces, even if the result was achieved more by luck (or incompetence) than judgement.

    Agreed. I see France's standing has been boosted in the world. Obama was so impressed by the offers of support from the mighty gauls he decided.....er........to put the whole thing on ice.

    In fact, the British parliament has effectively determined the whole western policy approach.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    A Labour boost was inevitable in that the government was promoting an extremely unpopular policy on a war weary public. I would agree with Roger that in my experience this was exercising a lot of people who normally get fairly glassy eyed at the first mention of politics.

    So Cameron has dumped the policy in circumstances that did not do much for the government's credibility or reputation for competence.

    Now what?

    My guess would be that Miliband's Vicky Pollard positioning will come under strain as events unfold. But maybe I am being optimistic. What I think is clear is that if the government stays away from involvement in Syria they should not continue to take a hit on this.

    In short I am not sure that this is an outlier but I do think the effect will be fairly short term.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The danger for Dave now is that the media narrative could move against him.

    Read the papers today and the media narrative is moving against Ed, not Dave. The Mail, Telly and Sun are all making trouble for Ed today.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If Cameron has any sense he will see the opening that recent events have createed on defence.

    Syria has shown us we need to spending more, much more on our boys, ships and flying stuff. No more post Afghanistan P45s.


  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    taffys said:

    The danger for Dave now is that the media narrative could move against him.

    Read the papers today and the media narrative is moving against Ed, not Dave. The Mail, Telly and Sun are all making trouble for Ed today.

    The right-wing papers write headlines against the leftie leader.Duh.Apparently the Mail editor is a personal friend of Cameron(source:Andrew Marr)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Smukesh,

    Agreed. Thing about those papers though, is they have a CIRCULATION.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited September 2013
    Thoughtful piece from Lord Dannat

    " When a previous prime minister passed the baton of decision-making on war and military intervention from 10 Downing Street to Parliament, he committed his successors to a tortuous path over which he or she might have limited control.

    Last week, David Cameron trod that path with commendable conviction but unwise haste. Parliament, with an ear to the high street, stopped him in his tracks.

    Were this not such a serious matter, it could have been passed off as another quiet August news story, but the consequences are profound not just for the Prime Minister but for the United Kingdom and our standing in the world; not forgetting the people of Syria, who are in the eye of this particular storm. The tragedy is that it should not have been like this. No decent person could disagree with the view that the use of chemical weapons, either on or off the battlefield, is a morally repugnant act and contrary to international law.

    Although media focused on the votes in the House of Commons, Thursday’s debate in the House of Lords was no less intense, with a heavy majority of speakers arguing against military action in Syria now, even in the light of the chemical attack in East Damascus. I was one of those speakers... > http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10278389/Syria-crisis-Theres-no-military-solution-yet-says-former-head-of-Army.html
  • Ashcroft poll. p.24

    2010 vote split.

    2010 Con
    Con: 68%, Lab 5%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 24%

    2010 Lab
    Con: 3%, Lab: 88%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 6%

    2010 LD
    Con: 9%, Lab: 32%, LD: 35%, UKIP: 15%

    2010 UKIP
    Con: 3%, Lab: 3%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 91%

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    taffys said:

    but it has been a good week for the British public, and armed forces, even if the result was achieved more by luck (or incompetence) than judgement.

    Agreed. I see France's standing has been boosted in the world. Obama was so impressed by the offers of support from the mighty gauls he decided.....er........to put the whole thing on ice.

    In fact, the British parliament has effectively determined the whole western policy approach.

    That's overstating things - the British parliament was just the first to say what lots of people were thinking. (IMO, even the supporters of action were 'reluctant' and 'heavy-hearted' rather than enthusiastic)
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    taffys said:

    Smukesh,

    Agreed. Thing about those papers though, is they have a CIRCULATION.

    Which is going down by the day.And if I am right,the Sun has lost the biggest percentage of it`s readers amongst the papers.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    Ashcroft poll. p.24

    2010 vote split.

    2010 Con
    Con: 68%, Lab 5%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 24%

    2010 Lab
    Con: 3%, Lab: 88%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 6%

    2010 LD
    Con: 9%, Lab: 32%, LD: 35%, UKIP: 15%

    2010 UKIP
    Con: 3%, Lab: 3%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 91%

    But the fieldwork for this poll was May!! Quite a lot has happened since then.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Doddy

    Have you got Tourettes? You keep repeating the same post every ten minutes or so....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SMukesh said:

    taffys said:

    The danger for Dave now is that the media narrative could move against him.

    Read the papers today and the media narrative is moving against Ed, not Dave. The Mail, Telly and Sun are all making trouble for Ed today.

    The right-wing papers write headlines against the leftie leader.Duh.Apparently the Mail editor is a personal friend of Cameron(source:Andrew Marr)
    Dacre was also a personal friend of Brown's.

    He writes what sells, doesn't care about what people think. The guy is a commercial genius. A sh1t of the highest order, but a commercial genius.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Charles

    "my Mum made an interesting comment. She sat next to Cameron at dinner a few weeks ago and her reaction afterwards was "this man doesn't know how to listen"."

    Maybe she was boring him
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    Paul Dacre who edits the Daily Mal cannot stand Cameron.

    More likely Geordie Greig (an Old Etonian as it happens) who edits the Mail on Sunday.
  • wodger .. I have not asked about the body count before .. it will become more relevant in the next few weeks.. what is your problem, dont you like to be reminded your lot voted NOT to stop Assad.
    Are you still stuck in that burst sofa in Grouchos, nice and comfy? goood..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    @Charles

    "my Mum made an interesting comment. She sat next to Cameron at dinner a few weeks ago and her reaction afterwards was "this man doesn't know how to listen"."

    Maybe she was boring him

    I doubt it, Roger. She's very practiced at that sort of event.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    taffys said:

    The danger for Dave now is that the media narrative could move against him.

    Read the papers today and the media narrative is moving against Ed, not Dave. The Mail, Telly and Sun are all making trouble for Ed today.

    They are all serious strong Labour supporting newspapers , of course. What did you think they would write ?

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited September 2013
    The Sun's website has gone behind a paywall so its influence online will be lower as well.
    SMukesh said:

    taffys said:

    Smukesh,

    Agreed. Thing about those papers though, is they have a CIRCULATION.

    Which is going down by the day.And if I am right,the Sun has lost the biggest percentage of it`s readers amongst the papers.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    wodger .. I have not asked about the body count before .. it will become more relevant in the next few weeks.. what is your problem, dont you like to be reminded your lot voted NOT to stop Assad.
    Are you still stuck in that burst sofa in Grouchos, nice and comfy? goood..

    Judging from his recent comments I imagine that the very modest, charming, self-effacing, agreeable President Assad will be Roger's guest at the next luncheon.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Is this a policy?

    Sunny Hundal @sunny_hundal
    Ed Miliband *will* repeal the Bedroom Tax, reports the Sunday People. A matter of when not if bit.ly/15ulAMt
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Charles

    Cameron's problem is that not only that he doesn't listen, but it's also that he's insecure and needs to be liked, hence he surrounds himself with people from the same class.
    He'd love to be liked by the more hip circles Samantha has moved in (which includes some black people in the hip hop world. Dave salivates at the mere prospect - see your other classic anecdote for further reading) but that never happened.

    To compound the matter he's always treated his own MPs with contempt and a fair few of them will return the favour whenever they can.

    I don't disagree with the overall diagnosis. But it's lazy thinking to blame it on "class". He surrounds himself with people who think in a certain way and have certain attitudes. Many, but not all, are drawn from a similar background to him - and they are absolutely a minority of people with that background.

    It's attitudes, not class that matter.
  • F/Stopper..And doing absolutely nothing is an option? nice one.
    When you turn up at a blazing building and apply the same logic then the building and all in it will burn out.. so why bother..Why have a fire service.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2013
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    "66% of people agree with the argument that chemical weapons are especially horrific and should be regarded as a crime against humanity, 26% think they are terrible… but no worse than the mass killing people using other methods. People are not, however, convinced that the Assad regime has used them – 43% think they have, 43% don’t know. Overall 68% think it is right that Britain does not take part in military action, 16% think Britain should have taken part.

    When people opposed to military action were asked why the effect of Iraq and Afghanistan becomes clear – 36% said it was because they wanted UN support for an attack, 38% that it would make things worse not better, but the biggest single factor (mentioned by 51%) was the fear that a limited missile strike would inevitably lead to more British involvement later, and ultimately Britain being dragged into another land war.

    Looking to the future, while people were opposed to British involvement in an attack on Syria, they are not opposed to us offering support to the USA doing it! By 48% to 31% people would support the USA being allowed to use British bases in Cyprus, 70% think we should share intelligence about Syria with the US, 64% that we should support any attack diplomatically at the UN. It looks as though it is British involvement people oppose, not an attack per se."

    As you would expect, the general public take a sensible view of the entire picture.

    Leaving aside everything that happened on Wednesday and Thursday, the one question that has not been answered properly still remain:

    What happens next [ after the bombing ] ?

    US Television networks are carrying this story that when Obama met the Generals and Admirals on Friday and asked would Syria still have a military capability after the attacks, "he almost fell of the chair" !

    In the US too, like in the UK, Kerry's gung ho speeches , similar to Hague, and the subsequent decisions, somehow don't gel ! It's the Lord Kitchener story !
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650

    The Sun's website has gone behind a paywall so its influence online will be lower as well.


    SMukesh said:

    taffys said:

    Smukesh,

    Agreed. Thing about those papers though, is they have a CIRCULATION.

    Which is going down by the day.And if I am right,the Sun has lost the biggest percentage of it`s readers amongst the papers.

    Yup.And if they keep calling Ed Miliband as `the real villain` for taking what was quite a popular action in the country,the circulation will go down even further.

    The Guardian paper copy is only bought by 250000 but it has 3 million online readership similiar to the Mail.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @SMukesh

    "The Sun has lost the biggest percentage of it`s readers amongst the papers."

    The Sun don't have readers. They just look at pictures.

    From their science correspondent.

    http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/01392/19perfectbreasts_1392319a.jpg
  • JohnO said:

    Ashcroft poll. p.24

    2010 vote split.

    2010 Con
    Con: 68%, Lab 5%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 24%

    2010 Lab
    Con: 3%, Lab: 88%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 6%

    2010 LD
    Con: 9%, Lab: 32%, LD: 35%, UKIP: 15%

    2010 UKIP
    Con: 3%, Lab: 3%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 91%

    But the fieldwork for this poll was May!! Quite a lot has happened since then.
    Fair point! I hadn't noticed that!

    Comparing it to the May local election result:
    Con: 25% (-2), Lab: 29% (-9), LD: 14%(+5), UKIP: 23% (+5)
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    Roger said:

    @SMukesh

    "The Sun has lost the biggest percentage of it`s readers amongst the papers."

    The Sun don't have readers. They just look at pictures.

    From their science correspondent.

    http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/01392/19perfectbreasts_1392319a.jpg

    lol...He should be forwarded for the Nobel prize.
  • F/Stopper..And doing absolutely nothing is an option? nice one.
    When you turn up at a blazing building and apply the same logic then the building and all in it will burn out.. so why bother..Why have a fire service.

    If trying to put out a burning building you do not own and have no stake in will kill more people than it saves, and will at the same time spread the fire even further, what is the sense in getting involved?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    The comments of Tony Abbott, the likely next Australian PM, on the Syrian crisis:

    We have a civil war going on in that country between two pretty unsavoury sides," he said.

    "It is not goodies versus baddies, it is baddies versus baddies and that is why it is very important that we don't make a very difficult situation worse."
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-01/abbott-vows-to-detail-full-spending-cuts-by-thursday/4927488
  • SMukesh said:

    The Sun's website has gone behind a paywall so its influence online will be lower as well.


    SMukesh said:

    taffys said:

    Smukesh,

    Agreed. Thing about those papers though, is they have a CIRCULATION.

    Which is going down by the day.And if I am right,the Sun has lost the biggest percentage of it`s readers amongst the papers.

    Yup.And if they keep calling Ed Miliband as `the real villain` for taking what was quite a popular action in the country,the circulation will go down even further.

    The Guardian paper copy is only bought by 250000 but it has 3 million online readership similiar to the Mail.

    The Mail online content is largely aggregated agency stuff that focuses on celebs and similar. The Guardian content is much more political. But the Mail is a business; the Guardian isn't.

  • The beauty of the system is that the 46 people who have to send in letters can all have different people in mind

    EiT,

    This is the fourth day you have posted this type of comment. Can I assure you that the underlying message has been read, comprehended and that there is no need for you to repeat it for the rest of the week.

    Yours &c.,
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited September 2013
    A bizarre person if even 10% of this is true - Fred Goodwin http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/newsreview/features/article1307334.ece

    “Even a very close friend was on the receiving end of a dressing-down. David Thorburn, a Clydesdale district manager, had been best man at Goodwin’s wedding. At a management “away day” Goodwin asked him, in front of fellow executives, why he had moved a statue in one of the Aberdeen branches — and was not satisfied with the explanation. Fred gave David a kicking. He went absolutely mental,” a friend says.

    For moving a statue? This was symptomatic. Clydesdale executives noticed that Goodwin’s extraordinary attention to detail manifested itself in unusual ways. The former accountant seemed to have very little interest in the traditional components of a bank chief’s activities. He was obsessed with profit and growth; but questions of credit and risk, the basics that govern how much is lent and to whom, seemed to hold little appeal. He was much more fixated on subjects such as the cleanliness of branches, ordering a mass tidy-up across the Clydesdale. He took to mounting patrols, springing surprise inspections on unsuspecting staff. The alleged scruffiness of the branches became a particularly vexed question.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    surbiton said:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-no-vote-hardens-up-to-59-1-3070088

    Fitalass was linking this last night. May have been a different newspaper. My 2-1 rule for referendums is slowly establishing itself.

    It is YouGov, they are always always a million miles out on Scotland. Last poll had 9% difference and given it is more likely to have shortened for anybody to put up crap like this is a joke.
    Would you care to lose some money on your 2-1 rule.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tim said:

    @nicholaswatt: How can @George_Osborne tell #Marr @David_Cameron 1st PM to consult parl on military action when defining moment of early career Iraq vote?


    Thatcher recalled Parliament for a debate on the Falklands too.
    Foots speech that day was one of the finest ever given in Parliament.

    He is obviously talking through his arse. So did Blair when the infamous "45 minutes" was mentioned.

    Cameron also lied when referring to this chemical attack as the first since almost hundred years ago.

    Have we forgotten Halabja where our politicians blamed Iran, at first, since Saddam was our friend.

    So was Assad, who so nicely entertained our rendered AQ suspects in his torture chamber.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @HYUFD

    "It is not goodies versus baddies, it is baddies versus baddies and that is why it is very important that we don't make a very difficult situation worse."

    Well as that seems to be what the people are thinking everywhere its smart politics for someone wanting to be elected
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Does anyone have the Syrian body count for this week..thats really what this is all about isn't it?

    Richard it will be little different from the last 100+ weeks
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    taffys said:

    If Cameron has any sense he will see the opening that recent events have createed on defence.

    Syria has shown us we need to spending more, much more on our boys, ships and flying stuff. No more post Afghanistan P45s.


    It has shown us that we should stop pretending to be what we are not and stop poking our beaks into other people's fights. If we were really trying to help anyone you could understand it but they are very very selective on which atrocities they get upset about, double standards win every time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Andrew Roberts in the Daily Mail 'Hideously amoral Little England has stepped through the looking glass'

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2408040/ANDREW-ROBERTS-Hideously-amoral-Little-England-stepped-looking-glass.html#ixzz2ddA2J8Z9
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    Elsewhere in the paper, Hitchens calls for Cameron to go as expected, but Sir Christopher Meyer and Brooks Newmark say Obama's decision to consult Congress is a boost for Cameron
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    taffys said:

    Smukesh,

    Agreed. Thing about those papers though, is they have a CIRCULATION.

    Yes a miniscule one
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Doddy

    "Are you still stuck in that burst sofa in Grouchos, nice and comfy? goood.."

    Last time I was there that comfy sofa was occupied by Vaughan and Atherton. Should I read anything into that?
  • MG.. Bit of a blip last week just over 1400..but hey why bother even trying to stop it..Carry on Assad..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    @Charles

    Cameron's problem is that not only that he doesn't listen, but it's also that he's insecure and needs to be liked, hence he surrounds himself with people from the same class.
    He'd love to be liked by the more hip circles Samantha has moved in (which includes some black people in the hip hop world. Dave salivates at the mere prospect - see your other classic anecdote for further reading) but that never happened.

    To compound the matter he's always treated his own MPs with contempt and a fair few of them will return the favour whenever they can.

    I don't disagree with the overall diagnosis. But it's lazy thinking to blame it on "class". He surrounds himself with people who think in a certain way and have certain attitudes. Many, but not all, are drawn from a similar background to him - and they are absolutely a minority of people with that background.

    It's attitudes, not class that matter.
    It's a reflex action for Cameron to seek refuge in his class.
    When Mitchell went as Chief Whip what on earth possessed him to think Old Etonian Sir George Young, who wanted to retire, was a good idea?
    Because no one objected - it was a quick fix that didn't require a major and complex reshuffle. Cameron doesn't like reshuffles - I think it is good that Ministers get a chance to get to grips with their brief.
This discussion has been closed.