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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ashcroft mega-marginals poll has LAB doing better in the key battlegrounds than in country as a whole
@LordAshcroft poll finds
LAB doing better in key CON-LAB battlegrounds than country as whole. 8.5% swing as opposed to 6.5% one
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I may be wrong, it is possible (!) but this is only going one way from here. 20 months is a hell of a long time to be riding a resurgent economic wave ...
One new data point is that we might have expected the "thinking about your constituency" question to help Con recover some votes from UKIP. But in fact there's not much movement, and what there is helps Lab and Lib (?!?) in Lab/Con marginals. In Con/Lib marginals the Con share actually drops.
I still think UKIP will fall back to the benefit of Con, but it doesn't look like Con can hope for a lot of tactical support in the marginals from their UKIP defectors. Maybe right-wingers just don't do tactical voting.
Average YouGov Lab:
July: 38.9
August: 38.6
I'd call that "flat".......
Fieldwork was August 1 - September 5.
If there is a gap between M&F voting intention among the Tories, "Cameron has a woman problem "
If its in Labour it's "look at the lead!"
If there was a general election tomorrow which party would you vote for? Base: All respondents expressing an intention to vote (Turnout Weighted)
Con:
OA:.29
M: 30
F: 28
Lab
OA: 42
M: 40
F: 46
Where have the Labour men gone?
Which other party has a significant male skew?
UKIP:
OA: 14
M: 17
F: 11
"Meanwhile, for the No side the good news is that the suggestion made by another poll, commissioned by the SNP, that the Yes side might actually be narrowly ahead now very much looks like pie in the sky – neatly baked by posing some potentially leading questions before asking people how they proposed to vote."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/analysis-poll-leaves-independence-vote-in-balance-1-3094149
The Tories need to focus on shoring up the Lib Dem vote.
Issues facing Country (Con lead vs Lab or Lib Dem, depending on marginal)
Economy & Jobs : 64 (-11, +25)
NHS: 55 (-32, +9)
Controlling Immigration:, 44 (+20, +36)
Education: 33 (-14, +10)
For perspective - generally second or third last:
Standing up for Britain's interest in Europe: 14 (+13, +31)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/LORD-ASHCROFT-Forty-marginals-poll-summary.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5gddupegm8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-130913.pdf
How likely or unlikely do you think it is that Ed Miliband will ever become Prime Minister? Net likely, (vs May): -54 (-33)
That's quite a hole!
Most Statesmanlike:
Cameron: 37(82)
Miliband: 6(20)
Clegg: 3 (21)
Farage: 5 (28)
Most suited to job of PM:
Cameron: 33(87)
Miliband: 12 (39)
Clegg: 4 (30)
Farage: 6 (41)
Most trustworthy:
Cameron: 18 (59)
Miliband: 17 (51)
Clegg: 6 (51)
Farage: 7 (43)
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
The nearest would be:
- Argyll & Bute (LD), but that is a 4-way marginal
- Aberdeen South (Lab), but it is hard to imagine the Tories ever breaking the 25% barrier in that seat, thus ruling it out under the FPTP system
- Dumfries & Galloway (Lab), but with huge SNP/LD tactical voting in Labour's favour it would require the Tories to get close to 40% in that seat in order to gain it, and they are miles away from that at the moment
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con), but it would require a comprehensive collapse of the Lib Dem vote and nearly all former LD voters switching directly to Labour. Feasible, but profoundly unlikely, because in practice at least 50% of the former Lib Dems would instead vote SNP.
- Edinburgh South (Lab) (see Aberdeen South)
- Edinburgh West (LD) (see Argyll & Bute)
- Gordon (LD), both Lab and Con had respectable votes in 2010, but they are both going to get squeezed into oblivion by the main LD/SNP battle
Got any other great exclusives for us today Carlotta?
Cows Eat Grass! Shocker!
Queen Speeks Posh! Stunner!
Pope is a Catholic! Revealed!
The Ashcroft marginals:
LABOUR TARGETS
Sherwood, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Lincoln, Northampton North
North Warwickshire, Wolverhampton South West, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Nuneaton
Hendon, Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield North
Dewsbury, Pudsey, Bury North, Stockton South, Carlisle
Lancaster & Fleetwood, Waveney, Morecambe & Lunesdale, Hastings & Rye
Weaver Vale, Warrington South, Bedford
Stroud, Thurrock, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Brighton Kemptown, Hove, Ipswich, Gloucester, Cardiff North
LIBERAL DEMOCRAT TARGETS
Watford, St Albans, Oxford West & Abingdon, Harrogate & Knaresborough, Camborne & Redruth, Truro & Falmouth, Newton Abbot, Montgomeryshire
It's crap EdM v the toxic Tories and it looks like it will come down to who is hated more. That's no way to run a country. Good old FPTP.
So, not a single Scottish or Northern Irish seat was included in the Ashcroft poll. Were there any Welsh ones?
So, only one non-English seat (Cardiff North) is key to deciding the outcome of the next UK general election.
A very neat illustration of why Scots are not relevant to the UK, and the UK is not relevant to Scots.
And is it so surprising that the UK GE be decided in the country that makes up 84% of the UK?
With its membership plummeting, the Conservative Party is going to be spread too thinly on the ground. And the next UK GE is going to be a ground war. All the Air War crud so adored here at PB is going to add up to diddly squat.
Ed M as Prime Minister, Ed Balls Chancellor - a triumph for blank paper!
Rejoice ....
He who laughs last laughs longest.
Beware fools' gold.
0900hrs 18th September 2013 - First McARSE Scottish Independence Referendum Projection.
One year prior to Polling Day, what did you predict the result would be in the Norwegian independence referendum? What about the Icelandic independence referendum?
I've counted them and we're one short as we've wrung the neck of the fowl Scottish Independence chicken !!
Cluck cluck ....
Do you not feel a sense of history course through your veins as the mighty ARSE branches out to provide PBers and the wider world with the very finest of political projections ??
Jack W's ARSE - Never Knowingly Undersold !!
Just a round up of the plethora of non Ashcroft polling released overnight
YouGov (JohnO wins a free trip to Bournemouth for accurately predicting the YouGov lead last night)
Con 33%, Lab 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%;
YouGov Leader ratings (changes from last week)
Cameron - 12 (+3)
Miliband -46 (nc)
Clegg -50 (+3)
You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh if 16-18 yr old votes stopped separation.
Yes - 32%
No - 49%
Don't Know 19%
Result would be 60% No, 40 Yes if ref held this week
ICM poll shows result would be 55% no 45% yes if a no vote resulted in no extra powers for the Scottish Parliament
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-danger-for-no-camp-1-3094155
The latest Panelbase survey of 1,002 adults for The Sunday Times and Real Radio Scotland puts support for independence at 37%, unchanged since July, while backing for the union is up one point on 47% and 16% are undecided (-1).
However, when the 16% of Scots still undecided are asked how they would vote if the referendum was today the No lead falls to just four points with the gap narrowing to 52:48.
Fieldwork 30th Aug - Sep 5.
Panelbase changes from their poll for the SNP
Yes minus 7
No plus 4
DK plus 3
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/the-conversation-uk/scottish-independence-england_b_3905037.html
But it's only John Curtice and what does he know?
ED MILIBAND is bracing himself for damaging revelations about “dirty tricks” and “bungling” when he was a key member of Gordon Brown’s government.
A long-awaited book by Brown’s former communications chief Damian McBride — called “McPoison” by his enemies — is expected to embarrass Miliband and his frontbench team.
It will lift the lid on their role in disasters of the Labour era such as the “election that never was” in 2007 and the feuding between Brown and Tony Blair, his predecessor.
The publication of Power Trip: A Decade of Policy, Plots and Spin on September 24 threatens to overshadow next week’s Labour conference.
I was talking to an elderly friend of my mother. Originally from the Western Isles but resident in Glasgow during her adult life, she is a lifelong Tory voter. However, I was asking her about her attitude towards Scottish independence, and she said that she found the concept, the idea of national independence, very attractive. She thinks of herself primarily as a Scot, and is very proud of that fact. She is swithering over how to vote next September, and it may be that folk like her, who have voted Con/Lab/LD their entire lives, will take a very close look at that ballot paper question, think deep and dig deep, and find that the correct answer is not the one that the Con/Lab/LD parties have been fighting for.
"His voice and tone reminded me eerily of Hal the computer in the film 2001"
Coleshill is the Viagra capital of England......
....A Sunday Times investigation of the prescribing statistics for NHS GP surgeries has found that the council district of North Warwickshire has the highest rate of prescription of Viagra and other anti-impotence drugs of any region in England.
And Coleshill boasts the surgery that dispenses the highest number of prescriptions of any GP in North Warwickshire and the most prescriptions per registered male patient.
The odds on yes seem rather good, at william hill 4/1, and I can see that this is good value. I expect the national polls and Ed is crap meme to bring the poll much closer.
Can you tell I've had three hours of sleep?
Most in touch with ordinary people:,OA (supporters)
Cameron: 8 (25)
Miliband: 18 (52)
Clegg: 7 (47)
Farage: 19 (72)
Most like to invite to your home for dinner?
Cameron: 15 (44)
Miliband: 11 (35)
Clegg: 8 (48)
Farage: 11 (52)
I don't think anyone in the Yes camp had or has any illusions about how much of a struggle there is in front of us, ergo over the next three months over a 100 Yes events, BT less than 10. Complacency or they just can't get the staff?
Question 10 is also interesting; it looks to me as if all parties are fairly equally toxic. A beauty contest between Cindarellas sisters!
Having given these figures I don't know quite what they tell us except that the LD's are still in serious contention in their target seats .
Weel.....ye ken noo.......
http://www.panelbase.com/news/PanelbaseCommentsOnScottishPolls.pdf
The current position arises out of disillusion by left-wing LibDems (which clearly isn't affected by whether people like their Tory MP) and Tory voters going to UKIP (which might be affected, but is possibly trumped by the stronger pull of the anti-establishment option).
My only reservation, like the last megapoll, is that the data is so old, nearly 5 weeks old in this case. I am not really sure I understand why Ashcroft allows the moss to grow on his results before publication.
In the last 5 weeks we have had a fairly thorough and consistent character assassination of Ed Miliband, almost exclusively by what is supposed to be his own side. Would that have made a difference? Who knows. It has not moved the main polls enormously but these super marginals are more politicised, constantly getting more attention from the parties than the rest of us and they may well be more susceptible to this kind of mood music.
Still, once again, it shows there is absolutely no room for complacancy on the tory side. Any assumptions of a gentle swing back to victory with Ed deflating are misplaced. At this stage that is a good thing. The tories have become increasingly focussed in their messaging this year and need to keep that up.
As has been said elsewhere, the poll already appears out of date.
Mr. Senior, that's really weird. A rising Lib Dem vote on Con-Lab marginals is rather counterintuitive.
It's odd really. The is an opening for a new rhetoric that could appeal to left and right alike.
"And McBride on Ed Miliband
"His voice and tone reminded me eerily of Hal the computer in the film 2001"
These political 'kiss and tells' just before Party conferences are becoming quite a feature. Always at the expense of Labour because I suspect Labour supporters wouldn't appreciate the underhandedness of it and of course there are no Labour papers as horrendous as The Mail to serialize them.
This isn't to minimize the odiousness of the poisonous Mcbride but there will always be 'Mcbrides'......
Well nearly always.....I remember when Prince Andrew had just found himself a new model girlfriend and all the photographers were alerted to an offer of several thousand pounds for a topless photo of her. I had some of her myself but I'm pleased to say no one took the thirty pieces of silver
It is also curious to look at Con held seats to look for LD gains. While there may be the odd one, most observers are anticipating LD losses in 2015. The LD held LD/Con marginals may be interesting.
Mark is right though. Tactical voting is difficult to accurately describe. A voter who voted Labour in 2005, then LD in 2010 now expresses an intention to vote Labour in 2015. Is this a Labour voter who tactically voted LD in 2010 now unwinding tactical voting? Or a LD tactically voting Labour in 2015. Does it matter if they are in Cambourne or Broxtowe?
There's an Ipsos-Mori/Mumsnet poll in the Sunday Times
The study by an organisation seen as a touchstone for women’s political views shows Cameron’s five-point lead over Labour among women voters at the last election has turned into a 13-point deficit.
However this did make me chuckle
Focus groups were also asked how they thought party leaders would cope on their household budgets. Many thought Cameron would be appalled at having so little money. One said the prime minister, who recently returned from his fourth break of the year, “might have to give up all his holidays to Ibiza and go on £9.50 trips to Skegness like we’ve had to”.
Miliband was thought by some to be likely to spend all the household budget and then take out a payday loan.
edit, and of course actually voting tory would be a step too far for any self respecting Lib Dem.
2010 Eastleigh: LD 47%
2013 Eastleigh: LD 32%
Personally, I won't believe anything McBride says until it is corroborated by a credible source. And even then...
@robindbrant: McBride building up for an interesting contribution to lab's gathering in Brighton this year. http://t.co/CJLONZ90Gc
Oh I don’t know, I got the impression that the daily goings on within No10 at the time, require no ‘spicing up’ per se, - quite the opposite in fact, as a true account would probably lead to jail time.
The article forecasts that inflation may well fall to the 2% target within 6 months. If true, this will reduce the downward pressure on real wages and bring forward the day that they start to rise again.
Personally, I don't believe it. My guess is that once again inflation will "surprise" on the high side, not necessarily this week but certainly over the coming year. So many businesses with their best order books for years will be tempted to put some meat on those margins.