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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : September 17th 2013
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : September 17th 2013
Maybury and Sheerwater on Woking (Lib Dem Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Con 21, Lib Dem 15 (Con overall majority of 6)
Results of previous electoral cycle:
2010: Con 2,034 (43%), Lib Dem 1,871 (39%), Lab 525 (11%), UKIP 305 (6%)
2011: Con 1,061 (31%), Lab 1,016 (30%), Lib Dem 899 (26%), UKIP 434 (13%)
2012:
0
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Re. Woking, it's not really a Conservative bastion at present: their majority over the LDs is only 12.9%:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/f23.stm
A bit harsh.
The result will tell us something about Asian politics in Woking but nothing much about the parties standings in the borough as a whole . .
Q: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
Yes 32%
No 52%
When they were asked to imagine a Conservative victory in 2015, support for independence rose by 4 points to 36 per cent but support for the Union fell by only one point to 51 per cent.
While the poll indicated that some of those who were undecided would vote “Yes” if a Conservative victory was on the cards at Westminster in 2015, there was still a 15-point referendum lead for the “No” campaign.
.....
Female split, Yes 25, No 56
Male split, Yes 40, No 48
......There also appears to be a deep hostility towards independence among Scots aged between 18 and 24. Only one in four (25 per cent) says they favour independence, with 55 per cent saying they will vote against.
Among older Scots the gap is wider, with 28 per cent of the over-60s saying they will vote “Yes” while 61 per cent in this age group say they will vote “No”.
.....ABC1 yes 31%, no 54%
C2DE yes 33%, no 51%
1,139 Scottish adults took part in the poll, September 13-16, 2013. Full results at http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/ archive/ — from 7am today.
Your complacency and that of the PB tories is irrelevant but happily it is being matched by SLAB on the ground where it does matter. Just like at the scottish elections in 2011.
Historical Pictures @HistoricalPics
Voting ballot from 1938 about the reunification (Anschluss) of Austria with the German Reich. The large circle is Yes pic.twitter.com/d1WZIrGTDa
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10016432/National-Trust-SNP-will-not-hijack-Bannockburn-anniversary.html
Devolution helped the SNP deliver this Indy Referendum, but it also makes their argument that the Scots are often governed by Governments that they didn't vote for at Westminster so much weaker as a result. The Scots do now in effect, get two bites at the cherry when it comes to who will Govern them thanks to devolution. That this generation of young Scots have been brought up with both Parliaments dominating the political landscape in Scotland might go a long way to understanding why they are far more relaxed about staying within the UK.
And now after the Banking crisis and deep recession we have just experienced, it makes it so much harder for the SNP to convince voters about taking a risk which could cause yet further economic uncertainty in the longer term. Brown told us that he had ended boom and bust, now the SNP are trying to spin that Independence is going to make us richer and they can underwrite all our fiscal responsibilities without any need to tighten our belts. The prolonged economic uncertainty and lack of optimism which we have just experienced, is also I suspect the reason the BOO crew would lose an In/Out EU referendum any time in the near future. Like devolution in the Independence debate, the fact that the UK retained its own currency will help those campaigning for us to stay in the EU.
After the Independence Referendum kicks Independence into the long grass for another generation, our politicians would do well to give constitutional/vote system issues a very long rest while they concentrate on delivering the public services they do have overall control of up here.
The PB scottish tories are always amusing but certainly not the target audience for large numbers of don't knows or indeed large numbers at all. Cameron's incompetent coalition has saw SCON numbers tumble even further in scotland yet his obsequious SCON cheerleaders fear to say a bad word against him. With all too predictable results at last years scottish local elections. No scottish tory surge there I'm afraid. Quite the reverse.
The scottish conservatives lost 20 per cent of their councillors, saw their vote fall to 13.31 per cent and local representation cut dramatically or even wiped out in some areas.
Nor are any predictions and observations from a scottish tory surger and PB's leading anti-tipster anything other than irrelevant, though admittedly always very funny.
The scottish tories opposed devolution and we all know how well that turned out for them.
"Spare us a 'national debate' on veils
Home Office minister Jeremy Browne wants the nation to discuss how Muslim women dress, but it is hardly a menace to society":
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/16/spare-us-national-debate-veils
Then you had best get to work delivering that message because the EU elections are coming months sooner than the independence referendum. UKIP can and will campaign on immigration (no doubt Crosby will be stupid enough to dog whistle on it again and do them the favour) but Cammie won't dare raise the EU too much as an issue after his John Major like blundering on it not that long ago. That means the media won't care about the EU unless Farage can somehow make them care and he's been all but invisible lately.
Female split, Yes 25, No 56
Male split, Yes 40, No 48
......There also appears to be a deep hostility towards independence among Scots aged between 18 and 24. Only one in four (25 per cent) says they favour independence, with 55 per cent saying they will vote against.
Would you like to know Cammie's stratospheric approval ratings in scotland?
LOL
Best not. It might upset the PB Hodges yet again. ;^ )
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2422328/The-80-year-olds-wearing-Doc-Martens-mini-skirts-Worlds-glamorous-pensioners-unveiled-new-documentary.html
If No is doing well its multi-party,if Yes is doing well its Saint Alex.
Pure comedy.
Do you really need everything explained to you like a child? How sad.
Try curing your manifest ignorance by finding out who is actually the chairman of the Yes Scotland Campaign, and the opposite number to Alistair Darling in 'better together', before you embarrass yourself any further.
PB Tories, always hilarious, always wrong.
Women change their minds - If the yes team can establish what exactly they find so unappealing about the campaign and correct it, they maybe in with a chance. – If not, they’re buggered.
Apologies,I had forgotten about the multi-party SNP masquerading as Labour supporters.
'SNP supporters caught posing for pictures as part of LABOUR yes to ...
www.dailyrecord.co.uk/.../snp-supporters-caught-posing-pictures-21114...
And more recently the SNP Panelbase malarkey,still desperate times but excellent comedy value.
The penny will drop sooner or later.
Or it might take a week or so.
There is barely a week that goes by when the Daily Mail doesn't carry a story about some school girl or boy who was sent home because their attire, hair, make up or piercings etc doesn't adhere to the schools dress code. I don't ever see the great or the good writing column inches about these children's 'rights or liberty' being some how curtailed as a result. At a time when we are asking our teachers to be ever vigilant, and especially when its already difficult to police the culture of under age arranged marriages or FGM. I find it really disturbing to see some people viewing any criticism of this form of female subservience via a particular dress code due to religion as an issue of us somehow encroaching on their liberty!
Easily debunked bullshit that was long ago exposed as pathetic lies for those who aren't dumb enough to fall for the incompetent spin and actually know something about scotland and the campaign. Unlke the comedy PB tories.
For me, the abiding memory of this year's LibDem conference is the undisguised hatred directed towards their Tory "colleagues" and indeed everything Conservative by the likes of Tim Farron and especially Vince Cable.
I feel sure that they and others on the left of the party simply long for the day when the coalition is formally broken up and they can actively campaign for replacing it with a far more comfortable accommodation, from their viewpoint, with Labour.
David Cameron, George Osborne and other senior ministers who seem unwilling or incapable of even mildly rebuking the vitrio directedl towards them passing from Cable's lips must also long for the day when they can wave two fingers at him.
All of which brings me to the betting point of this post. Those nice people at Paddy Power are offering a market on the "Year of the Coalition Break Up", where they currently quote the following odds:
2013 ...... 9/1
2014 ...... 7/2
2015 ...... 1/4
I think we can probably discount 2013, although the absence of a Cabinet reshuffle this summer does leave me with the slightest nagging doubt that Cameron might just be considering a snap election, especially with the improving economic indicators - on balance however this must be very unlikely.
It seem to me that it would suit both coalition parties to agree a clean break around 6 months prior to a May 2015 General Election to enable each to set out their respective stalls in differentiating their separate policies. In any event, it is unlikely that any major legislation will be scheduled for the final few months of the Parliament. Everything therefore points to a formal break up of the coalition by 31 December 2014 at the latest and possibly a little earlier than that.
On this basis, PP's odds of 7/2 for 2014 appear to be uncommonly generous (and their 1/4 odds on offer for 2015 seem to me therefore to be correspondingly way too short.
As ever, do your own research.
On the other hand, I couldn't think of a better scenario for the Tories than going into the GE as a minority Government trying to do the right thing for the economy while the Opposition benches played politics instead. And where would it leave the Libdems if they totally blew the main reason they went into Coalition with the Tories out of the water by walking away from the Coalition before the GE?
Twitter
James Kelly MSP @JamesKLabMSP 2h
Only a year to go! Pity we could not press the fast forward button to miss all the tedious bits in the next year.
The only reason they might want to stick with Con would be that the MPs whose jobs are threatened by a deal with Con will be out of parliament, leaving only the other half, whose jobs will be similarly threatened by a deal with Lab.
Maybury & Shearwater - Conservative gain from Lib Dem
Con 44.1% (+22.6)
Lab 34.8% (+1.1)
UKIP 10.6% (-0.2)
LD 10.5% (-23.6)
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/3086/elections-17th-19th-september-2013?page=3#ixzz2fDGt2Fi1
The Lib Dem vote change in this ward since 2008 is a whopping -38.6 points. That is the stuff of extinction events.