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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs might have left Glasgow in a buoyant mood but their
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs might have left Glasgow in a buoyant mood but their GE2015 prospects are intrinsically linked to UKIP continuing to prosper
Most delegates at this week’s Liberal Democrat conference left Glasgow in a confident mood helped by the polling of marginal constituencies funded by ex-Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft and published on Sunday.
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Will UKIP supporters be enthusiastic gamblers, making the value bet to wager against them?
Will UKIP surprise the mainstream opinion that dismisses their chances in a hostile FPTP environment?
They're one of the most interesting potential factors at the next election. Much though I disagree with their politics, it would almost be a bit disappointing if they were to subside to have little impact...
Or am I just guilty of ridiculous scaremongering?
BTW - I'm assuming that Scottish bred tax evaders will be returning to the country to make their contribution, right?
It's not like it's two-way communication - "So, what's 25 times by 300?" - so all they would get is some blathering, repeated stuff that would surely be far more a distraction than a help to the average student.
(And by that I mean to include both UKIP and Liberal Democrat supporters.)
If you gave me the choice of having some facts repeated to me ad nauseum or silence, I know which I'd choose. And, I suspect, if you did a test with one half of the class getting iPod encouragement, then I'm pretty sure I know which group would perform better.
You could stick a camera under there as well, then have an outsourced team of exam takers relaying the correct answers through the earpiece.
Now there's a conspiracy theory for you ... :-)
'Today ‘Better Together’ disclosed £1.1 million of donations to its campaign. Almost half of that sum came from one man: Ian Taylor, a long-term Conservative Party donor and Chief Executive of oil-traders Vitol plc'
http://tinyurl.com/cajckmo
Playing devil's advocate - and offering no view on the veracity or otherwise of the original claim - then how about an hours silence, followed by 5 minutes of distilled facts and point-worthy tidbits, and then more silence?
In most exams I've taken, that would almost certainly have improved my score.
Even if they win back the UKIP switchers they are dependent on 2010 LDs not voting LAB.
Well, I've learned something today from PB. It's "shoo-in" not "shoe-in" - thank you, EiT.
So in return, here's some advice for the Labour party. Shoot the Rabbit, bring back the Badger.
But it's probably too late now.
"...invigilator had caught four students for hiding a cellphone in their turban during examination [sic]"
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-05-05/chandigarh/29512489_1_cheating-cases-students-cellphone
[and no, I have no statistics on the number of students wearing turbans in India]
Taking it further: a little camera in your glasses broadcasting images of the question papers, and the answers received back from someone outside with access to a computer.
A setup a bit like this, perhaps:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAQ-lp0jrHo
I guess all other things being equal, it will depend on the size of the margin.
Reckon this would be a pretty expensive service - cheaper to pay for private tuition.
Surely any headgear could hide a small ear-phone? The problem must be bigger than Islam and more correlated with our failed Education-System...?
:sits-back-smuggly:
Somehow I don’t think you would find his £0.5 million donation quite so repellent if it was going into the YES team;s coffers.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/revealed-better-togethers-2m-war-chest-and-who-donated-to-it.20727542
"27. iPod-Professor: listen to recorded lecture during the test; possible to hide earphone wires behind long hair"
http://www.fctl.ucf.edu/events/gtaprograms/workbook/files/detectingandpreventingcheatingduringexams.html
[I have no statistics on the number of long-haired students in Florida]
Hypothesis: No wins referendum handsomely, triumphant Westminster parties either do nothing about further devolution or kick it into very long grass, in 2016 SNP run a manifesto with a commitment to a further referendum and win even bigger Holyrood majority.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India
Two-way communication would be quite hard, I would have thought given the person at the other end would have to keep saying "What! I can't hear you, please speak up." Also, when the call got inevitably dropped by Three mid way through, there would presumably have been the tell-tale Apple ring-tone, followed by mush scrabbling below the burqa, and a hushed conversation...
I have a Google Glass. Now that would be useful in exams :-)
I think Tim's wrong about this below: it may be a small problem at the moment, but the tech is expanding so rapidly that it will be hard for teachers to keep up with all possible attack vectors.
The tories certainly have a problem with UKIP but is it really a bigger problem than the Lib Dems have with left leaning voters? I doubt it is now and it is even less likely to be by the election.
One thing that has become clear this year is that UKIP support is much more NOTA than anti-EU. Nevertheless, given a forced choice between an ever more eurosceptic tory party and the Lib Dems are they really going to help Lib Dems by hanging on to seats they might lose? Some clearly will, more than in 2010, but the bigger risk is for the Lib Dems.
Foreigners = UK government description of someone from UK who does not live in Scotland
It's the people running the vote that need to kept in the dark.
You could argue this makes exams pointless, just at the moment when Gove is re-emphasising them.
The LD Lab 2010 switchers appear to be a form of plankton. The 6% who sulked with Labour and voted LD gave Cameron the keys to No 10, if they'd stuck with Labour then we'd have PM Brown as Labour on 36% would have won most seats. I just hope they repeat the trick.
At the present time - postal votes excepted - it is very easy for a voter to lie to anyone pressurising them to vote a certain way, and to vote otherwise.
I mean if Mr Taylor rented a cheap flat and called it his address for electoral purposes then you'd be good with it ?
Donation to the YES team. - Ian Taylor is a fine self-made Scot who puts his money where his mouth is – He is proud of his roots, proud to supports traditional Scottish industry and proudly backs Scottish Independence, gawd bless you Sir…!
Donation to the No team. - This sorry excuse for a haggis is in league with those southern puffters – burn him…!
Does that mean you will decline any donations from ‘foreigners? – No, Didn’t think so.
He also has quite an interesting past as you know.
And you haven't answered my point, if Taylor has an address in Scotland does that make it all ok, since these are the rules.
The nice thing about this is that you only have to give them their secret once, after which they can vote as many times as they like, even in an uncontrolled, potentially hostile environment like their home.
If Mr Taylor indulged in some face-saving jiggery pokery to get a vote in the referendum, it wouldn't change my opinion of him or BT in the slightest.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-24162324
'Course, given the state of the polls, he could promise to give everyone north of the border a solid gold, full-size statue of William Wallace without any danger of having to deliver it.
Fun and games over - Pax.
"Following the donation, SNP leader Alex Salmond was criticised for "pandering to homophobia" by accepting Souter's donation[24] - particularly as the party had just opposed the right for gay couples to be given equal treatment by Catholic adoption agencies, and had also snubbed a gay rights debate in January 2007.[24] However, Salmond merely thanked Souter for his support, calling him "one of the outstanding entrepreneurs of his generation".[24] One month later, in April 2007, the SNP's commitment (made at the party's 2006 conference) to re-regulate the bus network was dropped from the 2007 manifesto, although the SNP denied any direct link"
Nationalist Insurance!
Yougov
Johann Lamont amongst current Labour supporters
TOTAL TRUST 33%
TOTAL DO NOT TRUST 44%
Don’t Know 23%
-11%
Ed Miliband amongst current Labour supporters
TOTAL TRUST 55%
TOTAL DO NOT TRUST 38%
Don’t Know 7%
+17%
Once in a previous life I taught in the Middle East. During external exams all students had to pass through an airport style metal detector. This is to check for phones etc but it also solves this problem.
http://www.thegwpf.org/mps-attack-impact-climate-change-act-families-industry/
What's interesting is that its the frothing swivel eyed.....er......soft left that wants to ban these garments, not the tories.
Have you kept up with the sewing skills Sean or has it gone the same way as the law studies?
The Lord Ashcroft poll has 97 Con to UKIP switchers and 35 LD to UKIP switchers , 99 of each Con and LD 2010 voters now saying Don't Know , 82 LD to Lab switchers but 39 Lab to LD , 53 LD to Con switchers and 78 Con to LD . Clearly there is currently movement in all directions and it is pretty certain that by GE 2015 there will be further probably major changes other than just in the Con to UKIP part .
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24159684
No wonder he left.
In other driver news, Massa reckons he won't settle for mid-grid:
http://www.espn.co.uk/ferrari/motorsport/story/125599.html
That backs up two potential stories, regarding Grosjean not being entirely safe at Lotus, and some suggestion that Button could end up leaving McLaren. I'd be a bit surprised if Button did go, but that's something I heard as a possibility.
Yes. We should have the right to refuse to deal with someone wearing this garment if we want to, without incurring the wrath of the equalities thought police.
Come back from the renegotiation next year with Barroso's head in a basket?
The Jeremiahs have said all along that Dave won't get anything meaningful from Europe. I think that belief's suddenly looking very incorrect.
Looking forward to welcoming Lord Digby Jones who is speaking to UKIP conference tomorrow #UKIPconf13
"We might as well knock down Birmingham and build it twenty minutes closer to London, and do it for less than £50bn.”
made me smile .
In the same way I see no reason to ban the burqa or even object to it except in circumstances where it disrupts normal life. So I agree with the idea that teachers should not wear them in school, in court or at security checks. But why should someone be stopped from wearing one walking down the street. Just because you find it rude is no reason to ban it. I find lefties rude but I don't think they should be banned. Hell I don't even think Tim should be banned and he is way beyond rude and into the realms of nauseating most of the time.
Banning stuff is not the way to go. Even being annoyed by what someone wears is pretty dumb so long as it is not actually causing you harm.
First they came for the burqas then they came for the Keffiyehs, then the headscarfs. By the time they came for my balaclava there was no one left to defend me.
Anyone know what the retails sales figure for the UK that were released to day. Usually they are splashed across here the minute they are announced.
Nothing sinister here, Red Rag. When I posted the Visa Consumer Expenditure Index for August earlier this month, I noted that July's Visa Index had shown a sharp fall in contrast with the ONS figures showing a sharp rise. The Visa August figures had reverted to a sharp rise, so it is not unexpected that the ONS figures for the same month show a balancing fall.
It looks very much to be a phasing issue with Visa and the ONS using different cut-off points in the month measured.
I will post the key tables in a follow up comment so you can see the effect. To get a true reading you have to look at the quarter on previous quarter figures to see whether any single month's data are indicative of a trend or a statistical blip.
If you make this comparison you will see there has been a very slight easing of the upward growth rate in August but nothing of any significance.
[Tables to follow]
ONS Retail Sales
Visa Europe Consumer Expenditure Index
It doesn't matter what he does it won't be enough.
If it isn't, Dave can kiss his premiership goodbye. He simply has to chop the UKIP vote down to size. My hunch is that the number of people who are genuine BOOs under any circumstances are actually quite few.
It won;t be enough for the hard core, I agree. but is every UKIP voter a BOO-er? Some will settle for a looser relationship with Europe. The question is how many and what they might settle for.
Would you support a person, say in a dole office or a bank, who said - I'm sorry I'm not dealing with you because I can't ascertain your identity and/or I find your unwillingness to interact extremely offensive.
If we support the right not to deal with burqa wearers, I reckon the burqa would probably disappear without us banning it.
Come the big day, one wonders just how many of them will get off their arses to actually bother to vote?
Differential turnout will be crucial if it is close.
But then, you just used an anecdote... so I'm sure tim will be along soon to mock you.
So the Conservatives will be offering a promise of a future referendum, and their UKIP opponents will, in most cases, be able to point out that the Conservative MP voted against a referendum in 2011.