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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where will the next Thatcher come from?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where will the next Thatcher come from?
One of the measures of the significance of Margaret Thatcher’s premiership is that despite being Britain’s first – and so far only – female prime minister, that fact is largely incidental compared to the achievements and actions of her government. Women heads of government were rare at the time. She was only the fourth elected female PM (and two of the earlier three followed either their husband o…
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I'm continually impressed by Stella Creasy
Isn't the indictment that all the current testicled contenders are seen as jokes, retreads, boring or toxic? Should be an opportunity for any half talented woman.
Betting PostGood afternoon, everyone.
Really hard to call the race due to the tyres. In the end, after much thinking, I backed Vettel for the win at 7 with a hedge set up at 2.5. I think there's a reasonable chance he could win, and also a decent chance he could be leading for a period which will hopefully see the hedge matched.
More detail and rambling here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/china-pre-race.html
Incidentally, the tennis tip of yesterday failed, I'm afraid.
A Hillary Presidency might be interesting but for all her considerable gifts I do not see her as a radical.
Nicola Sturgeon continually impresses and Ms Lamont has moved ahead of Alex Salmond in the leadership ratings.
Two pieces have stuck with me from this week's Maggiethon:
Rafael Behr in the New Statesman:
"The renewable portion of Thatcherism is not its prescriptions for the economy but its spirit of political insurgency – the will to impose change; the capacity to turn a partisan agenda into an election-winning movement for national renewal. That element does not belong to any one party or wing of politics.....
....The problem that poses for the Conservatives is made all the greater by the confluence at the very top of party – incarnate in David Cameron - of the post-Thatcher economic consensus and a pre-Thatcher cultural and social class hierarchy. Cameron, a second-generation Thatcherite with patrician Shire Tory sensibilities and royal relations is about the least plausible candidate you might find to lead a transformative economic, social or political revolution."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/thatchers-victories-are-too-old-and-complete-help-cameron
I think much the same could be said of Ed Miliband too, in terms of his emergence from a consensus that increasingly looks bankrupt.
The second set of thoughts which resonated were Frank Field's comments in the HoC - on the three challenges facing Britain today (deprivation, inequality and governance in an age of globalisation - all interlinked) - and the complete lack of plans to tackle them from either front bench.
The person - male/female, Labour or Tory, who can answer that with conviction is our 'Next Maggie'.
Baldwin, Harriett
Blackwood, Nicola
Bradley, Karen
Bray, Angie
Bruce, Fiona
Coffey, Therese
Crouch, Tracey
Dinenage, Caroline
Dorries, Nadine
Doyle-Price, Jackie
Ellison, Jane
Fullbrook, Lorraine
Gillan, Cheryl
Grant, Helen
Greening, Justine
Harris, Rebecca
James, Margot
Laing, Eleanor
Latham, Pauline
Leadsom, Andrea
Lee, Jessica
Leslie, Charlotte
Lumley, Karen
Macleod, Mary
Main, Anne
May, Theresa
McIntosh, Anne
McVey, Esther
Miller, Maria
Milton, Anne
Mordaunt, Penny
Morgan, Nicky
Morris, Anne-Marie
Murray, Sheryll
Newton, Sarah
Nokes, Caroline
Patel, Priti
Perry, Claire
Rudd, Amber
Sandys, Laura
Smith, Chloe
Soubry, Anna
Spelman, Caroline
Truss, Elizabeth
Villiers, Theresa
Watkinson, Angela
Wheeler, Heather
Wollaston, Sarah
What about those that can't remember - i.e. those born after 1980?
Also the agree/disagree question format is one that wouldn't be accepted by Electoral Commission.
Obviously, the dynastic element is present for many male leaders - Ghandi own son followed her, for example, and it's highly unlikely that GW Bush would have become president were he not his father's son - but the trend does seem particularly pronounced with female leaders. Which makes Thatcher's achievement all the more impressive.
The main known unknown is what happens to the SNP voteshare if Scotland votes comprehensively to remain in the Union.
Bugger all I suspect. But you never know. Defeat does to weird things to political parties.
Abbott, Diane
Abrahams, Debbie*
Alexander, Heidi*
Ali, Rushanara*
Beckett, Margaret
Begg, Anne
Berger, Luciana*
Blackman-Woods, Roberta
Blears, Hazel
Brown, Lyn
Buck, Karen
Champion, Sarah*
Chapman, Jenny*
Clark, Katy
Clwyd, Ann
Coffey, Ann
Cooper, Rosie
Cooper, Yvette
Creagh, Mary
Creasy, Stella*
Curran, Margaret*
de Piero, Gloria*
Doyle, Gemma*
Eagle, Angela
Eagle, Maria
Elliott, Julie*
Ellman, Louise
Engel, Natascha
Flint, Caroline
Fovargue, Yvonne*
Gilmore, Sheila*
Glass, Pat*
Glindon, Mary*
Goodman, Helen
Green, Kate*
Greenwood, Lilian*
Griffith, Nia
Harman, Harriet
Hillier, Meg
Hilling, Julie*
Hodge, Margaret
Hodgson, Sharon
Hoey, Kate
Jackson, Glenda
James, Sian
Jamieson, Cathy*
Johnson, Diana
Jones, Helen
Jones, Susan Elan*
Jowell, Tessa
Keeley, Barbara
Kendall, Elizabeth*
Mactaggart, Fiona
Mahmood, Shabana*
Malhotra, Seema*
McCarthy, Kerry
McDonagh, Siobhain
McGovern, Alison*
McGuire, Anne
McKechin, Ann
McKinnell, Catherine*
Moon, Madeleine
Morden, Jessica
Munn, Meg
Nandy, Lisa*
Nash, Pamela*
O'Donnell, Fiona*
Onwurah, Chi*
Osborne, Sandra
Pearce, Teresa*
Phillipson, Bridget*
Powell, Lucy*
Primarolo, Dawn
Qureshi, Yasmin*
Reeves, Rachel*
Reynolds, Emma*
Riordan, Linda
Ruddock, Joan
Seabeck, Alison
Smith, Angela
Stuart, Gisela
Thornberry, Emily
Vaz, Valerie*
Walley, Joan
Winterton, Rosie
The * are those from the new intake (2010 GE or recent by-elections).
Out of the newcomers, Abrahams, Curran, Elliott, Gilmore, Glass, Glindon. Green, Hilling, Jamieson. O'Donnell, Pearce, Qureshi and Vaz are already 50+ year old.
Re Com Res. I agree but also many/most of her supporters accept she was divisive - but appropriately so for the times. I noticed Lord Ashdown said as much in the H/L the other day.
That will get you all talking!
http://www.camvista.com/england/london/trafsq.php3
Forecast is heavy rain....
I remember during the 1980 riots Radio 4 breathlessly reporting 'we are getting reports of disturbances in Central Newcastle last night, on the line we have Superintendent Plod ' - 'How would you describe the situation?' 'Typical Friday night down the Bigg Market...then when, in Bristol things were looking bad, when plod was asked what he could do with (the army, rubber bullets??) he said 'rain'....
I'm not sure if the Salmond v women issue isn't being overstated; the gender imbalance is substantially greater in referendum v. Holyrood polling so I'd guess fear of the unknown is the greater issue. Sturgeon taking over after a losing referendum is certainly a strong possibilty - I'd give you much better odds if it was a straight Sturgeon v. Lamont showdown!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22115827
Can't wait for tomorrow
Mostly because she has higher don't knows than Salmond.
33% to 7% I think.
They are polling the same place where the SNP have a lead in the polls.
See the third graphic down here
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/13/the-latest-ipsos-mori-polling-on-scottish-independence/
The unsurprising news is that Sir Mark Thatcher lives there and the good news is he's back in good time to organize his Mother's funeral. Let's hope that the funeral goes without hitch as I understand the time he is allowed to spend in this country is limited.
When will we get another Prime Minister of the stature of Margaret Thatcher? I'll be lucky to see another in my lifetime.
Agree
Agree
Agree
Agree
Agree
Agree
Agree*
Disagree
But I'm sure someone will get a nice column out of reporting what we can already be pretty confident about (with the exception of the one marked with an asterisk).
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/miliband-blair-war-words-preview-bigger-battles-come
"Liberated from office, Blair enjoys the luxury of posing questions without answering them (although NS editor Jason Cowley has a go in today's Times) but Miliband does not. And once he begins to set out his stall, Labour unity could quickly begin to fray. Recall the tumult that followed Ed Balls's declaration of support for the public sector pay freeze and Labour's decision to abstain on the workfare bill (a move that prompted a rebellion by 44 backbenchers). As one Labour MP recently told me, a pledge to make further cuts to public spending (as the party will surely do) would make such rows "look like a tea party". For this reason, among others, David Cameron and George Osborne will continue to appear unreasonably cheerful. Most of their tough decisions are behind them; Labour’s are all still to come."
What a piece of work...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Thatcher
Of course I'm sure the 'enemy within' brigade were and are happy to make the idiotic comparison between lefties, unions, Northerners, Jocks etc, and Hitler.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/238328/Mark-Thatcher-The-lad-s-not-for-returning
http://www.livestream.com/occupylsx
She is the new Thatcher.
I think you're a little out of date (or at least the Express is).
Straight from the horses bottom.....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2306214/Margaret-Thatcher-dead-Carol-Mark-return-UK-today-ask-privacy.html
I do hope the contribution of the Thatcher estate to the cost of the ceremonial funeral is appropriately limited.
Otherwise I fear a "Master Shallow I owe thee a thousand pound" moment.
Far better that than confront a Millwall fan in Trafalgar Square.
Huge police presence on North Street Bristol.
Great to meet Ed Miliband this morning in Bristol, talking lots of sense.
Yes I've got 'friends' like that. One of the hazards of going to schools where often stupid pupils had ridiculously rich parents who left them fortunes and enormous villas in places like Marbella. A bit like Sir Mark actually.
http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2013/04/08/expat-mark-thatcher-announces-mothers-death/
And it looks like his 'interesting times' are not over:
"Regularly seen driving around the coast in his Porsche Turbo, he is said by local sources to have various business dealings in Spain.
He was recently said to have been one of the names handed over to the Spanish authorities after HSBC bank released details of off-shore accounts in Jersey.
Having rented a villa in the exclusive Madronal development for years Olive Press sources say he is now living in nearby Zagaleta, which counts the Mayor of Moscow and allegedly President Putin of Russia as owners."
Today they were advertising folk and as you'll know they never take anything that seriously.
Is this an option with Vanilla?
Shirley Williams was technically joint leader of the SDP in 1981-2. Margaret Beckett was technically leader of the Labour Party for a few weeks in 1994, as was Harriet Harman in 2010.
Part of the problem seems to be that capable women either don't run for the leadership at all (the Yvette Cooper syndrome), or they 'settle' for the deputy leadership instead (the Harriet Harman syndrome).
"He was recently said to have been one of the names handed over to the Spanish authorities after HSBC bank released details of off-shore accounts in Jersey."
The Great Lady's son could end up in prison? This has the potential to cause Paul Dacre to take his own life
What do you think, James?
"And, contrary to some received wisdom, women are not more opposed to independence, but rather women are more undecided. That doesn’t mean that the Yes campaign does not have work to do to make the case to women more effectively, but we should also be aware of two other points. First, if Yes has a ‘women problem’ then that means No has a ‘men problem’ (and they face that problem from what has been their high-water mark in the polls). And, second, with the No campaign’s appalling welfare changes about to come into effect on April 1st and with women set to feel 75% of the impact of those changes, what we can be sure of is that No are on the point of massively alienating this sector of their support.
Which brings me to the third and final lesson from our research – No support is built upon incredibly shaky foundations. We know that many people who currently say they will vote No do so because they have a ‘fact’ or belief that means they think we can’t be independent. This is usually around whether or not we can afford it. These anchors for No support are very fragile and can be removed by a series of simple arguments: essentially being able to persuade people that Scotland’s got what it takes to be an independent country and that, when we look at our many economic strengths, it all adds up to more prosperous Scotland if we are independent and able to determine our own economic future."
http://stephennoon.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/we-know-date-and-we-know-that-we-can-win.html
But what about the "Off Topic" button? Does that automatically hide something at any point?
Also, aren't "Agree" and "Disagree"AND "Like" excessive?
The Likes are good for rewarding funny posts but otherwise serve to polarize opinion IMO.
Oh no. The absence of likes was one of the best things about the new system.
I have just disagreed with your post and you (and I) can drill down in your profile to see whom it was that had the temerity and impudence not to accept your post as gospel.
Are you suggesting that Rhondda was an independent Labour-run republic, Cousin of Seth? I believe Thatcherism did actually apply there, in spite of the Labour MP.
I like the way that you can drill down the reactions to see who it is that you next need to insult.
I think the 'Agree' button could save us some redundant posts too.
Now if only we had a 'CammieOsbrownFop' button for Pork....save him a lot of time...