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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In October last year LAB had an average poll lead of 2.4% – th

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In October last year LAB had an average poll lead of 2.4% – this October Corbyn’s party is 3% behind

 

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  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    First, just like the Tories.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Second like Labour
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Lost, like the UK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    As I said, it was rather unfortunate for Corbyn that just at the start of the silly season when everyone was sick of the B-word that the main story was he supported racists.

    It's not so much that it would dent his popularity in his target groups - although contrary to my expectations it appears to have done so - but that it would give the waverers he needs to win over another reason to ignore him.

    What I wasn't expecting was for it to turn off his younger voting demographic to quite such an extent. They appear to have been much more aware of, and much more annoyed by, these issues than I thought they would be.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    I fear that while Mr Corbyn may enthuse those his core support, there are enough questions around his actions to make those of us who don’t fall into that category to look at him doubtfully!

    I’d also like to know what percentage of the electorate are ‘doubtful’ about both main parties. In other words, what are these 80-odd % of. I realise that statistically one can project from samples, but I very much doubt that many people are that enthusiastic about either party, or party leader at the moment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Falling fast, like Boris.

    I must say the the pre-Budget build-up and speculation is a little dull this year?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Falling fast, like Boris.

    I must say the the pre-Budget build-up and speculation is a little dull this year?

    With this Chancellor? Shurely you jest!
  • As regards to younger voters, I thought the consensus was that his ambiguity over brexit was regarded as the main factor in the drop in support.
  • IanB2 said:

    Falling fast, like Boris.

    I must say the the pre-Budget build-up and speculation is a little dull this year?

    Dull budgets were everybody goes “was that it?” afterwards are much better than showy ones which fall to pieces within 24 hours.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    So, games players, can I recommend Return of The Obra Dinn. It genuinely is like no game you have ever played.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILolesm8kFY
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    As regards to younger voters, I thought the consensus was that his ambiguity over brexit was regarded as the main factor in the drop in support.

    It may be any number of things. This cannot have helped.

    Good luck for the next half term, hope it goes well.
  • ydoethur said:

    As regards to younger voters, I thought the consensus was that his ambiguity over brexit was regarded as the main factor in the drop in support.

    It may be any number of things. This cannot have helped.

    Good luck for the next half term, hope it goes well.
    Enjoy your break.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    ydoethur said:

    As I said, it was rather unfortunate for Corbyn that just at the start of the silly season when everyone was sick of the B-word that the main story was he supported racists.

    It's not so much that it would dent his popularity in his target groups - although contrary to my expectations it appears to have done so - but that it would give the waverers he needs to win over another reason to ignore him.

    What I wasn't expecting was for it to turn off his younger voting demographic to quite such an extent. They appear to have been much more aware of, and much more annoyed by, these issues than I thought they would be.

    I have the joys of a 21 year old and a 15 year old at the moment. It's a pretty small sample even taking into account their peer groups but I would say as a generality they have very little interest in party politics at all.

    It is a mistake, however, to think that does not mean that they don't have strong views about a range of issues, some of which Corbyn resonated with in the past. My kids and their friends find the idea of racism abhorrent. They are not so interested in feminism because they take equality as a given. They find any form of discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation distasteful and slightly weird. Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    They are of course connected to each other like no generation in history and have access to unlimited information (much of it lacking context) on their phones at all times. Whether there is a correlation between this connectedness and the lack of interest in traditional political groups is hard to say but I don't get the impression there is the same willingness to bend their own ideas to those of a group or conform. It will be interesting to see what they do with the world.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Corbyn was the future, once.....

    I wonder if McDonnell will have another outing for his Little Red Book today? Or has he realised that with the air leaking out of Corbyn's balloon, perhaps it is unwise to make twattish gestures when his own time might soon come?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    rcs1000 said:

    So, games players, can I recommend Return of The Obra Dinn. It genuinely is like no game you have ever played.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILolesm8kFY

    In what way? (Genuine interest)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    As I said, it was rather unfortunate for Corbyn that just at the start of the silly season when everyone was sick of the B-word that the main story was he supported racists.

    It's not so much that it would dent his popularity in his target groups - although contrary to my expectations it appears to have done so - but that it would give the waverers he needs to win over another reason to ignore him.

    What I wasn't expecting was for it to turn off his younger voting demographic to quite such an extent. They appear to have been much more aware of, and much more annoyed by, these issues than I thought they would be.

    I have the joys of a 21 year old and a 15 year old at the moment. It's a pretty small sample even taking into account their peer groups but I would say as a generality they have very little interest in party politics at all.

    It is a mistake, however, to think that does not mean that they don't have strong views about a range of issues, some of which Corbyn resonated with in the past. My kids and their friends find the idea of racism abhorrent. They are not so interested in feminism because they take equality as a given. They find any form of discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation distasteful and slightly weird. Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    They are of course connected to each other like no generation in history and have access to unlimited information (much of it lacking context) on their phones at all times. Whether there is a correlation between this connectedness and the lack of interest in traditional political groups is hard to say but I don't get the impression there is the same willingness to bend their own ideas to those of a group or conform. It will be interesting to see what they do with the world.
    Of course before the internet you could connect up instantly with anyone in the entire world as long as they had a phone, even if they lived in the middle of the Australian outback. The only difference was that because it was expensive you only did it when you really needed to, which is perhaps not such a bad thing. There were also services like Ceefax and Prestel which contained a surprisingly large amount of information. People tend to forget about those technologies today, and how extensive they were. They didn't feature videos of cats playing the piano though, that's true.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Corbyn was the future, once.....

    I wonder if McDonnell will have another outing for his Little Red Book today? Or has he realised that with the air leaking out of Corbyn's balloon, perhaps it is unwise to make twattish gestures when his own time might soon come?

    I would be extremely surprised if Macdonnell has any ambition to lead Labour.

    Admittedly, that only faintly compares to the astonishment I would feel if he stood and won.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    The other thing to note is that the 2 main parties are still getting 79% of the vote between them. For whatever reason we are not yet getting the sort of fragmentation that we saw again in Germany yesterday. Not only do we not have any new third parties of note but some of the older ones such as the Greens who are doing so well on the continent are going nowhere. The Lib Dems, with their unambiguous views on the EU, are also making no progress. This continues to surprise me, especially when you consider the quality of leadership of the established parties.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: a weird weekend. Lots of luck, good and bad. Some good judgement and bad judgement. Normally I either get a fluke or (this year) suffer unremitting pain at the hands of fate.

    Finished ahead overall, so pleased about that. Wrote a bit of the post-race tosh last night but will finish it off this morning.

    On-topic: small margins and the turbulence of modern politics could easily turn things this way or that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    ydoethur said:

    Corbyn was the future, once.....

    I wonder if McDonnell will have another outing for his Little Red Book today? Or has he realised that with the air leaking out of Corbyn's balloon, perhaps it is unwise to make twattish gestures when his own time might soon come?

    I would be extremely surprised if Macdonnell has any ambition to lead Labour.

    Admittedly, that only faintly compares to the astonishment I would feel if he stood and won.
    If Corbyn were to disappear off the stage for whatever reason, who else would be passed the baton of his personal politics, if not McDonnell?

    McDonnell has the air of a man pacing around muttering "Oh, ffs...." all summer over the anti-semitism row - when he should have been making the case for slicing and dicing this Government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    AndyJS said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    As I said, it was rather unfortunate for Corbyn that just at the start of the silly season when everyone was sick of the B-word that the main story was he supported racists.

    It's not so much that it would dent his popularity in his target groups - although contrary to my expectations it appears to have done so - but that it would give the waverers he needs to win over another reason to ignore him.

    What I wasn't expecting was for it to turn off his younger voting demographic to quite such an extent. They appear to have been much more aware of, and much more annoyed by, these issues than I thought they would be.

    I have the joys of a 21 year old and a 15 year old at the moment. It's a pretty small sample even taking into account their peer groups but I would say as a generality they have very little interest in party politics at all.

    It is a mistake, however, to think that does not mean that they don't have strong views about a range of issues, some of which Corbyn resonated with in the past. My kids and their friends find the idea of racism abhorrent. They are not so interested in feminism because they take equality as a given. They find any form of discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation distasteful and slightly weird. Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    They are of course connected to each other like no generation in history and have access to unlimited information (much of it lacking context) on their phones at all times. Whether there is a correlation between this connectedness and the lack of interest in traditional political groups is hard to say but I don't get the impression there is the same willingness to bend their own ideas to those of a group or conform. It will be interesting to see what they do with the world.
    Of course before the internet you could connect up instantly with anyone in the entire world as long as they had a phone, even if they lived in the middle of the Australian outback. The only difference was that because it was expensive you only did it when you really needed to, which is perhaps not such a bad thing. There were also services like Ceefax and Prestel which contained a surprisingly large amount of information. People tend to forget about those technologies today, and how extensive they were.
    Its completely different. Not only is it free but group chat is the norm, something the old tech couldn't do. I remember Ceefax but it was not interactive or responsive. It had lots of boring news which generally doesn't interest the younger generation either unless it is about one of their hot topics.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Ace, either that or kids are more susceptible to ideology. It was only a couple of weeks ago the BBC were pushing a report's line that eating less meat would help save the planet.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    My grandson and his wife find themselves with an infestation of mice, probably coming from next door (they have a semi). While otherwise reasonably typical they have invested in conventional traps!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018
    FPT: on current figures, the Greens have taken second place from the Social Democrats in Hesse by just 94 votes out of millions cast.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    The fox hunting was a huge mistake but it goes beyond that. I can see a world where animal welfare and environmental concerns makes vegetarianism the norm coming down the track quite quickly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    DavidL said:

    The other thing to note is that the 2 main parties are still getting 79% of the vote between them. For whatever reason we are not yet getting the sort of fragmentation that we saw again in Germany yesterday. Not only do we not have any new third parties of note but some of the older ones such as the Greens who are doing so well on the continent are going nowhere. The Lib Dems, with their unambiguous views on the EU, are also making no progress. This continues to surprise me, especially when you consider the quality of leadership of the established parties.

    When the two party's supporters are voting against something rather than for something, it is not altogether surprising under FPTP that this consolidates negative votes behind the big two. The only way to block a Labour government is to vote Conservative. Conversely, the only reliable way to get the Tories out is to vote Labour.

    If we had AV, PR or STV I think the polls would look very different - probably closer to Germany with massive fragmentation on both left and right.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    I fear that while Mr Corbyn may enthuse those his core support, there are enough questions around his actions to make those of us who don’t fall into that category to look at him doubtfully!

    I’d also like to know what percentage of the electorate are ‘doubtful’ about both main parties. In other words, what are these 80-odd % of. I realise that statistically one can project from samples, but I very much doubt that many people are that enthusiastic about either party, or party leader at the moment.

    For sure it will be choice of the lesser of two evils only.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT

    MaxPB said:

    I think the main problem with liberals is that they are weak. Just weak on absolutely everything.

    We're weak on absolutely everything, and yet... we've achieved so much in the past 100 years. How strange!
    Only by subterfuge! Sneaky liberals.

    It's a common trope of the fascist to present the enemy as both overwhelming and all powerful but also weak an snivelling.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to note is that the 2 main parties are still getting 79% of the vote between them. For whatever reason we are not yet getting the sort of fragmentation that we saw again in Germany yesterday. Not only do we not have any new third parties of note but some of the older ones such as the Greens who are doing so well on the continent are going nowhere. The Lib Dems, with their unambiguous views on the EU, are also making no progress. This continues to surprise me, especially when you consider the quality of leadership of the established parties.

    When the two party's supporters are voting against something rather than for something, it is not altogether surprising under FPTP that this consolidates negative votes behind the big two. The only way to block a Labour government is to vote Conservative. Conversely, the only reliable way to get the Tories out is to vote Labour.

    If we had AV, PR or STV I think the polls would look very different - probably closer to Germany with massive fragmentation on both left and right.
    That's probably right, if somewhat depressing. Given the lack of inspiration on show though I really find the big 2 getting 80% at the next election again highly unlikely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Hammond is a much better Chancellor than either Osborne or Brown. One sticky moment over NI aside, he's provided exactly the boring competence and determination needed.

    Somebody upthread commented on the lack of leaks. That pattern was the ultimate indicator of both Brown's and Osborne's lack of political sense. They would leak all the good stuff in advance, and then be amazed when for the next several weeks or even months nobody mentioned the good stuff (as it wasn't 'news' any more) and instead focussed relentlessly on the bad stuff.

    Leaking the bad stuff and getting it out of the way would have been smarter, but not as smart as keeping schtum.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited October 2018
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to note is that the 2 main parties are still getting 79% of the vote between them. For whatever reason we are not yet getting the sort of fragmentation that we saw again in Germany yesterday. Not only do we not have any new third parties of note but some of the older ones such as the Greens who are doing so well on the continent are going nowhere. The Lib Dems, with their unambiguous views on the EU, are also making no progress. This continues to surprise me, especially when you consider the quality of leadership of the established parties.

    When the two party's supporters are voting against something rather than for something, it is not altogether surprising under FPTP that this consolidates negative votes behind the big two. The only way to block a Labour government is to vote Conservative. Conversely, the only reliable way to get the Tories out is to vote Labour.

    If we had AV, PR or STV I think the polls would look very different - probably closer to Germany with massive fragmentation on both left and right.
    That's probably right, if somewhat depressing. Given the lack of inspiration on show though I really find the big 2 getting 80% at the next election again highly unlikely.
    There we differ. I can easily see them getting 75% plus between them. For me, the thing to watch will be turnout as disillusioned voters stay at home. I could see that dipping below 65%.

    The next election could easily be won by the party that motivates its supporters best. This is where Corbyn's Marmite qualities remain a priceless asset to the Tories. He's not currently enthusing his base but he sure as hell enthuses theirs.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to note is that the 2 main parties are still getting 79% of the vote between them. For whatever reason we are not yet getting the sort of fragmentation that we saw again in Germany yesterday. Not only do we not have any new third parties of note but some of the older ones such as the Greens who are doing so well on the continent are going nowhere. The Lib Dems, with their unambiguous views on the EU, are also making no progress. This continues to surprise me, especially when you consider the quality of leadership of the established parties.

    When the two party's supporters are voting against something rather than for something, it is not altogether surprising under FPTP that this consolidates negative votes behind the big two. The only way to block a Labour government is to vote Conservative. Conversely, the only reliable way to get the Tories out is to vote Labour.

    If we had AV, PR or STV I think the polls would look very different - probably closer to Germany with massive fragmentation on both left and right.
    Exactly , given the majority of votes in UK are useless as most seats never change hands , it is just a lottery in a handful of seats that decides what useless bunch of creeps we are subjected to next, both cheeks of the same arse apart from being left or right side.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to note is that the 2 main parties are still getting 79% of the vote between them. For whatever reason we are not yet getting the sort of fragmentation that we saw again in Germany yesterday. Not only do we not have any new third parties of note but some of the older ones such as the Greens who are doing so well on the continent are going nowhere. The Lib Dems, with their unambiguous views on the EU, are also making no progress. This continues to surprise me, especially when you consider the quality of leadership of the established parties.

    When the two party's supporters are voting against something rather than for something, it is not altogether surprising under FPTP that this consolidates negative votes behind the big two. The only way to block a Labour government is to vote Conservative. Conversely, the only reliable way to get the Tories out is to vote Labour.

    If we had AV, PR or STV I think the polls would look very different - probably closer to Germany with massive fragmentation on both left and right.
    Exactly , given the majority of votes in UK are useless as most seats never change hands , it is just a lottery in a handful of seats that decides what useless bunch of creeps we are subjected to next, both cheeks of the same arse apart from being left or right side.
    I had thought the SNP surge in 2015 might be the start of proving that trope to be wrong.

    But it hasn't.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Labour haven’t been trying to appeal to voters much, preferring to concentrate on internal party matters. We’ll have to wait and see what happens when they change tack, as they can be expected to do at some point.
  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to note is that the 2 main parties are still getting 79% of the vote between them. For whatever reason we are not yet getting the sort of fragmentation that we saw again in Germany yesterday. Not only do we not have any new third parties of note but some of the older ones such as the Greens who are doing so well on the continent are going nowhere. The Lib Dems, with their unambiguous views on the EU, are also making no progress. This continues to surprise me, especially when you consider the quality of leadership of the established parties.

    When the two party's supporters are voting against something rather than for something, it is not altogether surprising under FPTP that this consolidates negative votes behind the big two. The only way to block a Labour government is to vote Conservative. Conversely, the only reliable way to get the Tories out is to vote Labour.

    If we had AV, PR or STV I think the polls would look very different - probably closer to Germany with massive fragmentation on both left and right.

    I think we'd look a lot like Spain, because unlike Germany there'd be a strong nationalist vote in some parts of the country to throw int the mix.

    The bottom line, though, is that Corbyn cements the Tories into power, which means that the Tories have no real incentive to face up to their many damaging deficiencies. Instead they get the consequence-free luxury of fighting each other in the knowledge that whatever happens they will win most seats at the next election. For the country as a whole it is nothing short of disastrous.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    I think the polls are irrelevant at this stage. May lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election and she is still there because Tory MPs are all mouth and no trousers. She is leading Britain to a national humiliation with her Brexit plans, has no domestic policy agenda, and in Hammond has yet another tax and spend Chancellor who is presiding over a real standard of living crisis and ignoring productivity and investment needs.

    Against any other political party, Labour’s problems with anti-semitism, misogyny and support for terrorist organisation isations would see it dead and buried in electoral terms. Against the clueless muppets that constitute the current Tory Party, it is still very much a political force to be reckoned with.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    And that's got to be enough excitement for one year, surely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Labour haven’t been trying to appeal to voters much, preferring to concentrate on internal party matters. We’ll have to wait and see what happens when they change tack, as they can be expected to do at some point.

    I am not wholly sure Labour see the difference. What are nationalisation, tuition fee pledges, unfunded borrowing and Brexit dithering if not self-indulgence pandering to different wings of the party? Yet they firmly - and on the evidence of last year, with some justice - believe these also appeal to voters.

    It's the racism row that we can't say that of.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    DavidL said:

    And that's got to be enough excitement for one year, surely.
    One each will be given to nurses and teachers as their pay rise for 2019.
  • AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
    On average, people do value dogs' lives more highly that criminals' lives:

    image
  • I think the polls are irrelevant at this stage. May lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election and she is still there because Tory MPs are all mouth and no trousers. She is leading Britain to a national humiliation with her Brexit plans, has no domestic policy agenda, and in Hammond has yet another tax and spend Chancellor who is presiding over a real standard of living crisis and ignoring productivity and investment needs.

    Against any other political party, Labour’s problems with anti-semitism, misogyny and support for terrorist organisation isations would see it dead and buried in electoral terms. Against the clueless muppets that constitute the current Tory Party, it is still very much a political force to be reckoned with.

    Yep, that’s the way I see it. How bad are the Tories to be only a few points ahead of a party led by Jeremy Corbyn?

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
    On average, people do value dogs' lives more highly that criminals' lives:

    image
    Thanks for that, I hadn't seen it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
    I’m highly unlikely to vote Green because quite a few of the leaflets etc that I see talk about ending vivisection. I know that I owe my life, in part anyway, to experiments carried out on animals. I don’t think that, yet anyway, we can rely on computer simulation to forecast drug effects so voting Green, to me, would be condemning others to the miserable time I had as a teenager.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    I think the polls are irrelevant at this stage. May lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election and she is still there because Tory MPs are all mouth and no trousers. She is leading Britain to a national humiliation with her Brexit plans, has no domestic policy agenda, and in Hammond has yet another tax and spend Chancellor who is presiding over a real standard of living crisis and ignoring productivity and investment needs.

    Against any other political party, Labour’s problems with anti-semitism, misogyny and support for terrorist organisation isations would see it dead and buried in electoral terms. Against the clueless muppets that constitute the current Tory Party, it is still very much a political force to be reckoned with.

    Yep, that’s the way I see it. How bad are the Tories to be only a few points ahead of a party led by Jeremy Corbyn?

    Not as bad as Corbyn, and that's what MATTERS
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    ydoethur said:

    Labour haven’t been trying to appeal to voters much, preferring to concentrate on internal party matters. We’ll have to wait and see what happens when they change tack, as they can be expected to do at some point.

    I am not wholly sure Labour see the difference. What are nationalisation, tuition fee pledges, unfunded borrowing and Brexit dithering if not self-indulgence pandering to different wings of the party? Yet they firmly - and on the evidence of last year, with some justice - believe these also appeal to voters.

    It's the racism row that we can't say that of.
    You need more than just a retail offer, it needs to hang together.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    DavidL said:

    And that's got to be enough excitement for one year, surely.
    DONT YOU MEAN EXCREMENT...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Mr. Ace, either that or kids are more susceptible to ideology. It was only a couple of weeks ago the BBC were pushing a report's line that eating less meat would help save the planet.

    At least they are not susceptible the ideology of never using blockquotes.

    The BBC's "line" is basically true. The industry of rearing animals to be killed for human food consumes huge amounts of water and energy to produce a vast amount of C02 and a relatively small amount of protein.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
    On average, people do value dogs' lives more highly that criminals' lives:

    image
    Thanks for that, I hadn't seen it.
    Blimey my daughters cat was reading PB whilst sitting beside me this morning. Just as well I’d moved away.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Ace, true. We could really fight global warming by mass termination of cows. I look forward to seeing bovine genocide in the Green manifesto.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
    On average, people do value dogs' lives more highly that criminals' lives:

    image
    Thanks for that, I hadn't seen it.
    And the cat points out that journalist, politician and lawyer are noteable absences from that list.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    DavidL said:

    And that's got to be enough excitement for one year, surely.
    yuk
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Interesting that much of the decline of the Labour voteshare seem to have gone to the LDs rather than just the Tories and while the Tories now lead in most polls they are also down on GE17 and UKIP are up
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, either that or kids are more susceptible to ideology. It was only a couple of weeks ago the BBC were pushing a report's line that eating less meat would help save the planet.

    At least they are not susceptible the ideology of never using blockquotes.

    The BBC's "line" is basically true. The industry of rearing animals to be killed for human food consumes huge amounts of water and energy to produce a vast amount of C02 and a relatively small amount of protein.
    But a nice steak now and again , with a bottle of red is very good. They could just ration it. Also how could you live without an odd burger here and there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Justine Greening has said she would consider a leadership bid on GMB
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited October 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    So, games players, can I recommend Return of The Obra Dinn. It genuinely is like no game you have ever played.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILolesm8kFY

    I like the sound track and the animation reminds me of the brilliant 'Old Man And the Sea by Petrov.

    https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=old+man+and+the+sea+animation#id=5&vid=4d52ae42bdc3adcda9f81913096f118c&action=view
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    I think the polls are irrelevant at this stage. May lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election and she is still there because Tory MPs are all mouth and no trousers. She is leading Britain to a national humiliation with her Brexit plans, has no domestic policy agenda, and in Hammond has yet another tax and spend Chancellor who is presiding over a real standard of living crisis and ignoring productivity and investment needs.

    Against any other political party, Labour’s problems with anti-semitism, misogyny and support for terrorist organisation isations would see it dead and buried in electoral terms. Against the clueless muppets that constitute the current Tory Party, it is still very much a political force to be reckoned with.

    Yep, that’s the way I see it. How bad are the Tories to be only a few points ahead of a party led by Jeremy Corbyn?

    The Tories are now into a third term in government, only once in the last century have they won a 4th term from 1992 to 1997 and if they win that it will be largely due to Corbyn
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    Yes, but what about 2016? Polls will never scare corbynites again, and the rest are converted or have given up.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, either that or kids are more susceptible to ideology. It was only a couple of weeks ago the BBC were pushing a report's line that eating less meat would help save the planet.

    At least they are not susceptible the ideology of never using blockquotes.

    The BBC's "line" is basically true. The industry of rearing animals to be killed for human food consumes huge amounts of water and energy to produce a vast amount of C02 and a relatively small amount of protein.
    But a nice steak now and again , with a bottle of red is very good. They could just ration it. Also how could you live without an odd burger here and there.
    What about some haggis and whisky?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    DavidL said:

    The other thing to note is that the 2 main parties are still getting 79% of the vote between them. For whatever reason we are not yet getting the sort of fragmentation that we saw again in Germany yesterday. Not only do we not have any new third parties of note but some of the older ones such as the Greens who are doing so well on the continent are going nowhere. The Lib Dems, with their unambiguous views on the EU, are also making no progress. This continues to surprise me, especially when you consider the quality of leadership of the established parties.

    The LDs got 7% in 2017, on the chart above they are up to 10% in some polls so that is progress if only small progress
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. G, nonsense. You can't eat what you want. Think about the planet. Do you want us all to die?

    Letting the puritans dictate what you can eat is necessary to prevent the slaughter of the firstborn. Or don't you care about the greater good?

    :p
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
    On average, people do value dogs' lives more highly that criminals' lives:

    image
    Thanks for that, I hadn't seen it.
    And the cat points out that journalist, politician and lawyer are noteable absences from that list.....
    Just as well they didn't ask Jeremy Clarkson.

    Otherwise 'the person who invented driverless cars' and 'foxes' would have been on there too!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2018
    kle4 said:

    Yes, but what about 2016? Polls will never scare corbynites again, and the rest are converted or have given up.

    The Tories still got 42% in 2017, all that happened was minor party voters switched to Labour, the Tory voteshare was little changed from just before May called the general election though the Tories lost gains made at the start of the campaign
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    Pathological attachment to cruelty? Really? That's supposed to be serious?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting that much of the decline of the Labour voteshare seem to have gone to the LDs rather than just the Tories and while the Tories now lead in most polls they are also down on GE17 and UKIP are up

    As I have said before, the next election hangs on which of the larger parties loses most support to the minor parties. Labour is skewered between the Greens and LibDems just as the Tories are between LibDem and UKIP.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Mr. G, nonsense. You can't eat what you want. Think about the planet. Do you want us all to die?

    Letting the puritans dictate what you can eat is necessary to prevent the slaughter of the firstborn. Or don't you care about the greater good?

    :p

    Surely the answer to the planet's woes is to have an All-you-can-eat baby buffet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    The fox hunting was a huge mistake but it goes beyond that. I can see a world where animal welfare and environmental concerns makes vegetarianism the norm coming down the track quite quickly.
    Pretty standard sci fi trope.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited October 2018
    HYUFD said:

    I think the polls are irrelevant at this stage. May lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election and she is still there because Tory MPs are all mouth and no trousers. She is leading Britain to a national humiliation with her Brexit plans, has no domestic policy agenda, and in Hammond has yet another tax and spend Chancellor who is presiding over a real standard of living crisis and ignoring productivity and investment needs.

    Against any other political party, Labour’s problems with anti-semitism, misogyny and support for terrorist organisation isations would see it dead and buried in electoral terms. Against the clueless muppets that constitute the current Tory Party, it is still very much a political force to be reckoned with.

    Yep, that’s the way I see it. How bad are the Tories to be only a few points ahead of a party led by Jeremy Corbyn?

    The Tories are now into a third term in government, only once in the last century have they won a 4th term from 1992 to 1997 and if they win that it will be largely due to Corbyn
    I think I'm right in saying only once since 1832 has a party won four consecutive terms in government?

    That's not as easy to pin down as it sounds because there is some dispute about who won the elections between 1846 and 1865. There is a case to be made that it was the Conservatives, but that they were seldom able to hold power (two spells of minority government) as the other four blocks that eventually coalesced into the Liberal party outvoted them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, either that or kids are more susceptible to ideology. It was only a couple of weeks ago the BBC were pushing a report's line that eating less meat would help save the planet.

    At least they are not susceptible the ideology of never using blockquotes.

    The BBC's "line" is basically true. The industry of rearing animals to be killed for human food consumes huge amounts of water and energy to produce a vast amount of C02 and a relatively small amount of protein.
    Indeed. But animals are so darned tasty. ;)

    I think there's a healthy middle ground: as a species we have evolved to eat both meat and veg. But that doesn't mean we should eat only meat, and our meat consumption is far too great - perhaps partly because historically eating meat has been seen as a 'rich' thing or a treat.

    Personally, I've eaten much less meat since I started going out with a vegetarian.

    But another point should be made: Mrs J had been a vegetarian since her early teens, but started having a significant health issue that lasted quite a while. She is very careful with her diet, counts calories, vitamins etc to ensure she was getting everything her body requires. Someone recommended she tried eating fish. She did, and the problem went away. A year later she tried cutting out fish and replacing it with food supplements, but the problem recurred.

    She is now a somewhat reluctant pescetarian: a small amount of fish once or twice a week (e.g. sardines) seems to keep the problem at bay. I've heard similar anecdotes from others.

    Perhaps some people just cannot cope with long-term vegetarianism ...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I actually think there is a good case for moderating your meat consumption on environmental and health grounds. However, the right to eat meat is one thing I think I might actually be prepared to fight for.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    ydoethur said:


    There we differ. I can easily see them getting 75% plus between them. For me, the thing to watch will be turnout as disillusioned voters stay at home. I could see that dipping below 65%.

    The next election could easily be won by the party that motivates its supporters best. This is where Corbyn's Marmite qualities remain a priceless asset to the Tories. He's not currently enthusing his base but he sure as hell enthuses theirs.

    That's not quite right. He continues to enthuse his base - which is maybe 25% of the electorate. At my non-political poker evening in deepest Surrey last night, we had a rare excursion into politics - half the table (in the 30-60 age range) were huge Corbyn enthusiasts: "he's the best thing that's happened to British politics in my lifetime", "such a refreshing change", etc. (The other half looked distinctly sceptical.) The local membership remain big fans too. What he doesn't do at the moment is make the non-base feel he's saying anything relevant to them - ambiguous on Brexit, preoccupied with things like the IHLR examples.

    That needs to change. But I don't think May has anything like the depth of support. What she has is the opposite - little passionate support among the membership, but broad sympathy in the wider public for her impossible position and a degree of respect (which I share) for gamely plugging on. Floating voters will IMO be quite annoyed if the Tories do dump her after a halfway respectable Brexit deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting that much of the decline of the Labour voteshare seem to have gone to the LDs rather than just the Tories and while the Tories now lead in most polls they are also down on GE17 and UKIP are up

    Given that since GE17 UKIP have gone bat-shit out-and-out racist, and are likely to have fewer candidates than GE17, the Tory position is perhaps a couple of points better over Labour than polling suggests, if an election were held now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
    On average, people do value dogs' lives more highly that criminals' lives:

    image
    Thanks for that, I hadn't seen it.
    At least the cat came bottom.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    edited October 2018
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    MaxPB said:

    I think the main problem with liberals is that they are weak. Just weak on absolutely everything.

    We're weak on absolutely everything, and yet... we've achieved so much in the past 100 years. How strange!
    Only by subterfuge! Sneaky liberals.

    It's a common trope of the fascist to present the enemy as both overwhelming and all powerful but also weak an snivelling.
    It is rather a curious combination.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    tlg86 said:

    I actually think there is a good case for moderating your meat consumption on environmental and health grounds. However, the right to eat meat is one thing I think I might actually be prepared to fight for.

    That's something to chew over
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    ydoethur said:


    There we differ. I can easily see them getting 75% plus between them. For me, the thing to watch will be turnout as disillusioned voters stay at home. I could see that dipping below 65%.

    The next election could easily be won by the party that motivates its supporters best. This is where Corbyn's Marmite qualities remain a priceless asset to the Tories. He's not currently enthusing his base but he sure as hell enthuses theirs.

    That's not quite right. He continues to enthuse his base - which is maybe 25% of the electorate. At my non-political poker evening in deepest Surrey last night, we had a rare excursion into politics - half the table (in the 30-60 age range) were huge Corbyn enthusiasts: "he's the best thing that's happened to British politics in my lifetime", "such a refreshing change", etc. (The other half looked distinctly sceptical.) The local membership remain big fans too. What he doesn't do at the moment is make the non-base feel he's saying anything relevant to them - ambiguous on Brexit, preoccupied with things like the IHLR examples.

    That needs to change. But I don't think May has anything like the depth of support. What she has is the opposite - little passionate support among the membership, but broad sympathy in the wider public for her impossible position and a degree of respect (which I share) for gamely plugging on. Floating voters will IMO be quite annoyed if the Tories do dump her after a halfway respectable Brexit deal.
    or of course if it doesn't make it halfway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2018
    President Trump has called Brazilian President elect Bolsonaro to congratulate him on his win and ensure 'they work side by side for the people of Brazil and the United States.'

    Though Bolsonaro won the Presidency the Workers' Party still won most seats in the lower house of the Brazilian Congress though winning 56 seats to 52 seats for Mr Bolsonaro's party

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46013408
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    ydoethur said:


    There we differ. I can easily see them getting 75% plus between them. For me, the thing to watch will be turnout as disillusioned voters stay at home. I could see that dipping below 65%.

    The next election could easily be won by the party that motivates its supporters best. This is where Corbyn's Marmite qualities remain a priceless asset to the Tories. He's not currently enthusing his base but he sure as hell enthuses theirs.

    That's not quite right. He continues to enthuse his base - which is maybe 25% of the electorate. At my non-political poker evening in deepest Surrey last night, we had a rare excursion into politics - half the table (in the 30-60 age range) were huge Corbyn enthusiasts: "he's the best thing that's happened to British politics in my lifetime", "such a refreshing change", etc. (The other half looked distinctly sceptical.) The local membership remain big fans too. What he doesn't do at the moment is make the non-base feel he's saying anything relevant to them - ambiguous on Brexit, preoccupied with things like the IHLR examples.

    That needs to change. But I don't think May has anything like the depth of support. What she has is the opposite - little passionate support among the membership, but broad sympathy in the wider public for her impossible position and a degree of respect (which I share) for gamely plugging on. Floating voters will IMO be quite annoyed if the Tories do dump her after a halfway respectable Brexit deal.
    Fair comment, defining his base more narrowly than I was.

    How about, 'he's not enthusing his electoral coalition?'
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880


    Indeed. But animals are so darned tasty.

    I'm sure shooting up heroin feels fucking awesome but that doesn't mean doing it is a good idea.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    In my millennial social group I would say the majority are either vegetarian or at least trying to eat less meat. This is a recent phenomenon in the past 5 years. We were all telling jokes about stupid vegetarians eating rabbit food not so long ago. Its also driven in part by what is seen as healthy, not just wanting to help the environment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, either that or kids are more susceptible to ideology. It was only a couple of weeks ago the BBC were pushing a report's line that eating less meat would help save the planet.

    At least they are not susceptible the ideology of never using blockquotes.

    The BBC's "line" is basically true. The industry of rearing animals to be killed for human food consumes huge amounts of water and energy to produce a vast amount of C02 and a relatively small amount of protein.
    But a nice steak now and again , with a bottle of red is very good. They could just ration it. Also how could you live without an odd burger here and there.
    What about some haggis and whisky?
    Wonderful but does need tatties and neeps to go with it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think there is a good case for moderating your meat consumption on environmental and health grounds. However, the right to eat meat is one thing I think I might actually be prepared to fight for.

    That's something to chew over
    There's a lot at steak if meat eating gets the chop.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
    On average, people do value dogs' lives more highly that criminals' lives:

    image
    Thanks for that, I hadn't seen it.
    At least the cat came bottom.
    Cats are wonderful, they ought to have been top of the list.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Dura_Ace said:


    Indeed. But animals are so darned tasty.

    I'm sure shooting up heroin feels fucking awesome but that doesn't mean doing it is a good idea.
    sugar is the greater evil.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, for the fight ahead, should our loins be girded, or sautéd?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    The fox hunting was a huge mistake but it goes beyond that. I can see a world where animal welfare and environmental concerns makes vegetarianism the norm coming down the track quite quickly.
    There is a very strong correlation between per capita gdp and % of animal based protein in the diet. You are talking about a sub group of the first world not the “world”

    The novel protein source serious people are thinking about is insect. Cheap to raise and a phenomenal food conversion ratio.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting that much of the decline of the Labour voteshare seem to have gone to the LDs rather than just the Tories and while the Tories now lead in most polls they are also down on GE17 and UKIP are up

    As I have said before, the next election hangs on which of the larger parties loses most support to the minor parties. Labour is skewered between the Greens and LibDems just as the Tories are between LibDem and UKIP.
    UKIP are the biggest threat to the Tories, the Greens the biggest threat to Labour yes and the LDs will target Remainers from both
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    It's almost as if some people care more about animals than they do about other people. I'm sure that's an exaggeration, but you get that impression sometimes.
    Some people do. At university 25 years ago I knew a bloke who was an animal rights activist who said he's put one animal's life ahead of any number of human lives.

    Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
    On average, people do value dogs' lives more highly that criminals' lives:

    image
    Thanks for that, I hadn't seen it.
    At least the cat came bottom.
    Cats are wonderful, they ought to have been top of the list.
    they offer twice as many drumsticks as chicken, I guess?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Dura_Ace said:


    Indeed. But animals are so darned tasty.

    I'm sure shooting up heroin feels fucking awesome but that doesn't mean doing it is a good idea.
    Equating eating meat with shooting heroin just makes you sound an utter asshat.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    ydoethur said:


    There we differ. I can easily see them getting 75% plus between them. For me, the thing to watch will be turnout as disillusioned voters stay at home. I could see that dipping below 65%.

    The next election could easily be won by the party that motivates its supporters best. This is where Corbyn's Marmite qualities remain a priceless asset to the Tories. He's not currently enthusing his base but he sure as hell enthuses theirs.

    That's not quite right. He continues to enthuse his base - which is maybe 25% of the electorate. At my non-political poker evening in deepest Surrey last night, we had a rare excursion into politics - half the table (in the 30-60 age range) were huge Corbyn enthusiasts: "he's the best thing that's happened to British politics in my lifetime", "such a refreshing change", etc. (The other half looked distinctly sceptical.) The local membership remain big fans too. What he doesn't do at the moment is make the non-base feel he's saying anything relevant to them - ambiguous on Brexit, preoccupied with things like the IHLR examples.

    That needs to change. But I don't think May has anything like the depth of support. What she has is the opposite - little passionate support among the membership, but broad sympathy in the wider public for her impossible position and a degree of respect (which I share) for gamely plugging on. Floating voters will IMO be quite annoyed if the Tories do dump her after a halfway respectable Brexit deal.
    The Tories won't dump May unless there's a broadly acceptable alternative. DDavis, the man who made Wacko Jacko his Chief of Staff, surely does not fit that bill. Once Brexit has happened then Hammond's chances might edge up.
  • OneArmedBadgerOneArmedBadger Posts: 41
    edited October 2018
    And no grown-ups round the table wondered how that isolationist slogan ("entangling alliances with none") would go down with NATO.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think there is a good case for moderating your meat consumption on environmental and health grounds. However, the right to eat meat is one thing I think I might actually be prepared to fight for.

    That's something to chew over
    There's a lot at steak if meat eating gets the chop.
    Deer me at that is desperate
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the polls are irrelevant at this stage. May lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election and she is still there because Tory MPs are all mouth and no trousers. She is leading Britain to a national humiliation with her Brexit plans, has no domestic policy agenda, and in Hammond has yet another tax and spend Chancellor who is presiding over a real standard of living crisis and ignoring productivity and investment needs.

    Against any other political party, Labour’s problems with anti-semitism, misogyny and support for terrorist organisation isations would see it dead and buried in electoral terms. Against the clueless muppets that constitute the current Tory Party, it is still very much a political force to be reckoned with.

    Yep, that’s the way I see it. How bad are the Tories to be only a few points ahead of a party led by Jeremy Corbyn?

    The Tories are now into a third term in government, only once in the last century have they won a 4th term from 1992 to 1997 and if they win that it will be largely due to Corbyn
    I think I'm right in saying only once since 1832 has a party won four consecutive terms in government?

    That's not as easy to pin down as it sounds because there is some dispute about who won the elections between 1846 and 1865. There is a case to be made that it was the Conservatives, but that they were seldom able to hold power (two spells of minority government) as the other four blocks that eventually coalesced into the Liberal party outvoted them.
    After Tory Lord Liverpool it may have been the Liberals mainly under Palmerston during that period yes with the Tories divided over the Corn Laws repeal.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    tlg86 said:

    I actually think there is a good case for moderating your meat consumption on environmental and health grounds. However, the right to eat meat is one thing I think I might actually be prepared to fight for.

    I doubt meat eating will ever be banned. But I could easily imagine that if the externalities were properly costed and taxed, that meat eating would become much more expensive and thus less common.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    rkrkrk said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.

    I see this with my younger students. There is a huge generational schism forming on animal welfare issues and the tories, as usual and as a result of their pathological attraction to cruelty, find themselves on the wrong side of it.
    In my millennial social group I would say the majority are either vegetarian or at least trying to eat less meat. This is a recent phenomenon in the past 5 years. We were all telling jokes about stupid vegetarians eating rabbit food not so long ago. Its also driven in part by what is seen as healthy, not just wanting to help the environment.
    I'd back that up too. I love meat and even I eat less of it.

    Probably the influence of Lisa Simpson on the young.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting that much of the decline of the Labour voteshare seem to have gone to the LDs rather than just the Tories and while the Tories now lead in most polls they are also down on GE17 and UKIP are up

    Given that since GE17 UKIP have gone bat-shit out-and-out racist, and are likely to have fewer candidates than GE17, the Tory position is perhaps a couple of points better over Labour than polling suggests, if an election were held now.
    Provided UKIP again lack candidates in half the seats yes
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