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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » JoJo’s resignation pushes the odds on a 2019 referendum to 29%

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » JoJo’s resignation pushes the odds on a 2019 referendum to 29%

When transport minister and brother of BoJo, Jo Johnson, quit as transport minister on Friday calling for a second referendum there was an uptick on the Betfair betting market that one would take place before the end of 2019.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    First.. The odds can be anything punters want. there will NOT be a second referendum. It would cause an even greater schism than there already is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Add Ojeda to the list of long odds Democratic nomination candidates;
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/12/richard-ojeda-2020-president-983682
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    Still too long. The logistics are formidable, the question imponderable, the timings incredible and the outcome indecipherable. It would probably require another general election first in any case, and that doesn't seem likely to push us towards anything approaching a new direction anyway. On top of that, we're all sick of referendums.

    I think one chance in 50 would be more like it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    USA turnoit estimated at 49.2%, OGH gets richer every hour.

    Georgia continuing to banana that Republic, big thread

    https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1061843483554660352?s=19

    My highlight is absentee ballot be marked. Invalid 2 months after the election in 2014. Early voting is popular in America but it seems there is a good job your vote won't be counted.

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    It's not a 1 in 3 shot for sure.

    It'd require a change of government, the tories are divided and in no mood to face the country. A manifesto pledge is sine qua non for a referendum. Whatever their differences, they'll hang together in the face of a Corbyn administration.

    What would even be the question ?

    It's too decisive, for the country and for the major parties who would fracture.

    Could you imagine going through all that bitterness again; it's entirely possible that people would be killed. Another Jo Cox perhaps.

    I'd want double figures to even consider the bet. Just, no.
  • First.. The odds can be anything punters want. there will NOT be a second referendum. It would cause an even greater schism than there already is.

    Nothing compared to the schism created by us crashing out and grotesque chaos sweeping the country. Some politicians seem to be off their tits on LSD - what they say is so disconnected with reality fact and logic that its going to be a shattering experience when reality hits them.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    First.. The odds can be anything punters want. there will NOT be a second referendum. It would cause an even greater schism than there already is.

    I hope you are right on the first point. And if you are wrong on that, I hope you are wrong on the second point too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    First.. The odds can be anything punters want. there will NOT be a second referendum. It would cause an even greater schism than there already is.

    Nothing compared to the schism created by us crashing out and grotesque chaos sweeping the country. Some politicians seem to be off their tits on LSD - what they say is so disconnected with reality fact and logic that its going to be a shattering experience when reality hits them.
    Reality, hit a politician? It hasn't hit Jeremy in 55 years.

    I think I deserve great credit for not mentioning the good Kate Osamor here, incidentally...
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Root, schisms can deepen. Just look what happened to the Church, split between Rome and Constantinople.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    A second referendum is fraught with problems.

    The question(s) to ask.
    Can a referendum be anything other than a binary option?
    Who will be the 'lead organisations' for the campaigns?
    How will EU support for it be interpreted? (as in all probability they would have to grant an extension for it)
    The last few weeks have consisted of high octane disaster warnings of No Deal. Nobody is seriously putting forward a counter argument. If they do so, will that boost No Deal support?
    Can we have a referendum if the details of the deal are not known, or do we have to conclude negotiations first? If so, shouldn't it include details for a future trading relationship?

    Could take years! That would please some elements of the country
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Root, schisms can deepen. Just look what happened to the Church, split between Rome and Constantinople.

    Wasn't there a minor split between Rome and Canterbury in the sixteenth century as well? It probably wasn't anything important but I seem to remember hearing something about it.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Root, schisms can deepen. Just look what happened to the Church, split between Rome and Constantinople.

    What caused that schism?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    philiph said:

    A second referendum is fraught with problems.

    The question(s) to ask.
    Can a referendum be anything other than a binary option?
    Who will be the 'lead organisations' for the campaigns?
    How will EU support for it be interpreted? (as in all probability they would have to grant an extension for it)
    The last few weeks have consisted of high octane disaster warnings of No Deal. Nobody is seriously putting forward a counter argument. If they do so, will that boost No Deal support?
    Can we have a referendum if the details of the deal are not known, or do we have to conclude negotiations first? If so, shouldn't it include details for a future trading relationship?

    Could take years! That would please some elements of the country

    The reason a number of highly vocal people want another referendum is they don't like the result of the first one and want to reverse it.

    Newsflash - speaking as somebody who's less than thrilled himself, we lost. Running it again demanding a different answer because you didn't like the first answer is a quick and very expensive and disruptive way of making matters worse. For a start, it would confirm the charges that the EU is anti-democratic.

    The problem is that neither side has since made an effort to reach out to the other. The Brexit supporters were clearly shocked by their own success, while the Remain backers including the EU itself are still in denial and anger and refusing to even consider the real reasons why they got kicked in the belly.

    As a result, we remain split, and we will continue to be I think unless we suffer far less than expected while leaving.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, does Keir want a second referendum or to stop Brexit. They aren't the same.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758
    As I have mentioned before it would be open to the government to seek leave of the Supreme Court to appeal the decision of the Court of Session in respect of the Art 50 remit. I suspect they will make the application but there will be little sympathy when they waited until the penultimate day to seek leave to appeal from the Court of Session itself by which time the remit had been sent to the CJEU.

    What the CJEU will do with it remains another uncertainty. The normal requirement is that the domestic Court does its best to give an answer applying such EU precedent as there is. In this case there was no attempt to do that and we still have the responding government saying that the question is completely academic because they have no intention of seeking to withdraw the notice in any event.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, does Keir want a second referendum or to stop Brexit. They aren't the same.
    I suspect they are in his head.

    I think an election is an even more stupid idea to resolve Brexit. In an election you are voting on a manifesto of measures covering a wide selection of areas of government. It will add zero clarity to the will of the people over Brexit, it may change the party MP numbers a bit.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Scott_P said:
    Somebody in the Labour party is on board with a second referendum - but not involved?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    First.. The odds can be anything punters want. there will NOT be a second referendum. It would cause an even greater schism than there already is.

    Nothing compared to the schism created by us crashing out and grotesque chaos sweeping the country. Some politicians seem to be off their tits on LSD - what they say is so disconnected with reality fact and logic that its going to be a shattering experience when reality hits them.
    It's that saying goodbye to everyone, leaving the party, then not wanting to go back because you've forgotten your coat thing on steroids.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    Scott_P said:
    And this stance is backed by almost all Labour Party members. Corbyn is out of step on this one. Labour will, of course, continue to press for a general election but if it does not get one then it will support a second referendum.

    Starmer is one of very few politicians that will come out of this with his reputation enhanced.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Somebody in the Labour party is on board with a second referendum - but not involved?
    On board but couldn't find a seat?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Behind as in "the architect of" or behind as in "not yet caught up with"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, does Keir want a second referendum or to stop Brexit. They aren't the same.
    He wants to keep on the table for Labour every possible position imaginable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Starmer's tweet is a bit odd - a second ref is only happening if Labour wins a GE I think.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Scott_P said:
    And this stance is backed by almost all Labour Party members. Corbyn is out of step on this one. Labour will, of course, continue to press for a general election but if it does not get one then it will support a second referendum.

    Starmer is one of very few politicians that will come out of this with his reputation enhanced.
    What if it gets a general election? Will the Labour manifesto be for a “jobs-first Brexit”?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Scott_P said:
    I think Starmer actually said "Corbyn is an asses behind......"

    Both Labour and the Tories are tying themselves in knots, either by doing Brexit whilst not appearing to be doing it, or not doing Brexit whilst appearing to be doing it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, does Keir want a second referendum or to stop Brexit. They aren't the same.
    He wants to keep on the table for Labour every possible position imaginable.
    Labour's Karma Sutra of Brexit.

    Illustrated by Jeremy and Diane. Enjoy your breakfast......
  • Pulpstar said:

    Starmer's tweet is a bit odd - a second ref is only happening if Labour wins a GE I think.

    If Labour backs a referendum there may well be enough Tories willing to do the same to get it through Parliament. But it’s not going to happen. The last thing the Labour leadership wants is for Brexit to be delayed. They see huge opportunities in it happening.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    Scott_P said:
    And this stance is backed by almost all Labour Party members. Corbyn is out of step on this one. Labour will, of course, continue to press for a general election but if it does not get one then it will support a second referendum.

    Starmer is one of very few politicians that will come out of this with his reputation enhanced.
    What if it gets a general election? Will the Labour manifesto be for a “jobs-first Brexit”?
    It would promise a renegotiation followed by a second referendum to ratify the outcome. Which in reality would lead to remain.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    Roughly on topic, I think 29 per cent is too short - for the simple reason that time is running out and as long as the opposition refuses to get onboard it's a non-starter. One interesting effect though could be Jo Johnson's resignation eventually making Corbyn's previously unassailable position much weaker. Johnson's resignation, and the emboldening effect you'd expect it to have on the Tory remain rebels means we're not a million miles off a parliamentary majority for a people's vote were Labour to give it their full support and a three line whip (even with the inevitable Labour rebels). Hitherto, Corbyn's fans have largely swallowed the excuse that he's doing his best on Brexit, despite it being perfectly obvious that he isn't - one would have thought though that failing to back a people's vote Labour supporters desperately want when all he had to do was tell his MPs to do so would be an inflection point - firstly because it would force those employing spectacular cognitive dissonance on Corbyn to realise that, yes, he is a Brexiteer, and that his understanding of the issue makes David Davis look like Sabine Weyand. Secondly, for Labour's malcontents it's the point where there's no longer any reason to keep (relatively) quiet and carry on. If Brexit goes ahead in March - that's the point where Labour either splits (possibly forcing Corbyn out in favour of a leader who's Corbynite but can spike the rebels' guns by ameliorating their objections) or descends into open warfare again over both Brexit and the things that MPs have been bottling up (that many find Corbyn morally contemptible over various issues).

    A failure to secure a second referendum when one was genuinely on the table if Labour wanted it might make things very difficult for Corbyn - and when his support dissipates (other than the core hard left) it will do so pretty quickly when his fans come to realise he's a charlatan. It could be Clegg-like, and thoroughly well deserved too.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    A second referendum is fraught with problems.

    The question(s) to ask.
    Can a referendum be anything other than a binary option?
    Who will be the 'lead organisations' for the campaigns?
    How will EU support for it be interpreted? (as in all probability they would have to grant an extension for it)
    The last few weeks have consisted of high octane disaster warnings of No Deal. Nobody is seriously putting forward a counter argument. If they do so, will that boost No Deal support?
    Can we have a referendum if the details of the deal are not known, or do we have to conclude negotiations first? If so, shouldn't it include details for a future trading relationship?

    Could take years! That would please some elements of the country

    The reason a number of highly vocal people want another referendum is they don't like the result of the first one and want to reverse it.

    Newsflash - speaking as somebody who's less than thrilled himself, we lost. Running it again demanding a different answer because you didn't like the first answer is a quick and very expensive and disruptive way of making matters worse. For a start, it would confirm the charges that the EU is anti-democratic.

    The problem is that neither side has since made an effort to reach out to the other. The Brexit supporters were clearly shocked by their own success, while the Remain backers including the EU itself are still in denial and anger and refusing to even consider the real reasons why they got kicked in the belly.

    As a result, we remain split, and we will continue to be I think unless we suffer far less than expected while leaving.
    Asking whether we want to Brexit in the context of the stark reality and obvious economic damage is a very different question than was asked in June. Back then it was sunlit uplands and “exact same benefits”
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited November 2018
    philiph said:

    A second referendum is fraught with problems.

    The question(s) to ask.

    > Can a referendum be anything other than a binary option?

    Yes, but it adds complications. If there's a deal the government won't want to risk asking the voters if they want no deal, and if there's no deal it's not an option to leave wth one, so you probably just want to do a binary one anyhow.

    > Who will be the 'lead organisations' for the campaigns?

    Same as last time

    > How will EU support for it be interpreted? (as in all probability they would have to grant an extension for it)

    Dunno, whatever

    > The last few weeks have consisted of high octane disaster warnings of No Deal. Nobody is seriously putting forward a counter argument. If they do so, will that boost No Deal support?

    Possibly. Referendums do weird things, the voters might end up using it to give their opinion about the wombles. Obviously if it's an option the voters might pick it.

    > Can we have a referendum if the details of the deal are not known, or do we have to conclude negotiations first? If so, shouldn't it include details for a future trading relationship?

    The deal has to be known for parliament to vote on it. Obviously the parts that are decided after leaving can't be on a referendum about leaving, because they're not decided until you've left. If it was trivial to rejoin there might be a case for waiting, but it isn't.

    None of the above are blocking problems. The blocking problem is how you make the UK PM want to do this, and having done that how do you make the likely-Tory governing party let her remain PM for the time it takes her to do it.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Since we're talking Betfair I assume everyone commenting below is piling in on the other side of the bet?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Somebody in the Labour party is on board with a second referendum - but not involved?
    Jeremy very clearly backs a second referendum, per his interview in Der Spiegel. You just have to *want* to read between the lines.

    "We can't stop it. The referendum took place. Article 50 has been triggered. What we can do is recognize the reasons why people voted Leave."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Provided May gets a Deal and it gets through the Commons there will be no EUref2.

    If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    I agree (did someone say this?) that the more there is talk of No Deal the more it will be normalised for many people. Beware that effect if any referendum contains words to that effect.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, does Keir want a second referendum or to stop Brexit. They aren't the same.
    He wants both.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    HYUFD said:

    Provided May gets a Deal and it gets through the Commons there will be no EUref2.

    If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal

    That would be brave, foolhardy and suicidal.
    You're right, she will probably try to do it.
  • The only circumstance in which a second referendum becomes plausible is when it is seen as a better alternative to no deal without one. I could understand politicians wanting to avoid the blame for that.

    However, in those circumstances I would expect Leave supporters to fight tooth and nail to prevent such a referendum. The Labour leadership position in favour of an election rather than another referendum is important here. Not because it makes an election likely, but because it makes another referendum less likely.

    If we get to January and there's no deal and May decides she wants another referendum to bind the electorate to that outcome (or avoid it) I just don't think she has the support and time to pass it. With more support, less time would be required; with more time opposition on the backbenches can be overcome.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Not exactly helpful for the PM - seems whether they resigned or not, everyone except her thought that Chequers plan was a steaming pile of....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46175150
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Pulpstar said:

    Starmer's tweet is a bit odd - a second ref is only happening if Labour wins a GE I think.

    Nope. A second referendum happens if parliament votes for it. I've already explained the way that can happen.
  • TOPPING said:

    I agree (did someone say this?) that the more there is talk of No Deal the more it will be normalised for many people. Beware that effect if any referendum contains words to that effect.

    If we vote for a No Deal Brexit those who advocated it should be left to deliver it.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Provided May gets a Deal and it gets through the Commons there will be no EUref2.

    If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal

    That would be brave, foolhardy and suicidal.
    You're right, she will probably try to do it.
    It's such a stupid idea that I can see here going for it.

    While a second referendum isn't a great idea another general election is likely to be far worse for the Conservatives...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    The main story on the BBC is that several cabinet members had doubts about Mays plans from the beginning. That has to be a leak from Mays camp right? Because otherwise someone is so stupid as to think saying they thought it was terrible 4 months ago but stuck with it all makes them look good. That's weaker than Johnson excuse for signing up to it then changing his mind after the weekend.

    Just bloody quit the cabinet and bring down the government already, I am so sick of these Tory prevarications - May doesn't have the votes, we all know it, so just end it already.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Labour's Sir Keir Starmer insists 'Brexit can be stopped' to contradict Jeremy Corbyn"

    https://news.sky.com/story/labours-sir-keir-starmer-insists-brexit-can-be-stopped-to-contradict-jeremy-corbyn-11552239
  • Morning all,

    What time is the first resignation?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    A second referendum is for when people have changed their minds and are looking for an out. This doesn't look like the situation now. A think a full blown crisis is more likely, at which point things get very unpredictable.

    What if the government can't cobble together the votes for the NI backstop and indefinite customs union with adherence to EU Level Playing Field rules plus access to fishing waters and a bunch of other requirements TBD by the EU? Both sides might agree to stop the clock. The UK would still retain the policy of leaving the EU but would not be implementing yet. I would do this by withdrawing the Article 50 application but add a side agreement that sets out the expectations for both sides, which is likely to constrain UK behaviour somewhat. Would the EU and the UK agree to that? To get out the crisis, maybe. In any case I think Article 50 cancellation more likely than a second referendum, because it's got to happen first.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, does Keir want a second referendum or to stop Brexit. They aren't the same.
    The first is nessecary for the second to happen.

    What a shitshow the Tories have produced. I remember when an omnishambles was a sausage roll tax, but this...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited November 2018
    There are only two non disastrous outcomes at this point:
    - An EFTA Brexit
    - A referendum in which we decide to Remain

    May fucked up big time not pursuing the first from the outset, and may now be forced down the second path to secure Dominic Grieve’s, Jo Johnson’s, and Chuka’s vote on her “Deal”.

    I’m assuming she gives a tinkers about the country of course, which may be an assumption too far.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    I agree (did someone say this?) that the more there is talk of No Deal the more it will be normalised for many people. Beware that effect if any referendum contains words to that effect.

    If we vote for a No Deal Brexit those who advocated it should be left to deliver it.

    Whatever we vote for (if it comes to that - I don't think it will) I still want the least f£cking useless idiots to try to deliver it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2018
    There can be a second referendum if the Prime Minister so desires. Combined with suspension of Article 50, it would have the combined merits, from her point of view, of kicking the can down the road, extending her time in office, and perhaps even solving the Brexit conundrum.

    What Theresa May ought then to do is what Cameron should have done: announce herself above the fray, and set up a royal commission to examine the various options and frame the ballot question.

    How to buy off the headbanger Brexiteers? That too may not be as hard as it looks. Call their bluff. Give them seats on the commission. Some Brexiteers predicted Britain will be economically better off out. Jacob Rees-Mogg put it at a trillion pounds. Write into the commission's terms of reference that these options will be examined.

    So, will there be a second referendum in 2019? I would not bet against it. In fact, I've just had a token score at 5/2 in Betfair's illiquid market (warning: do not get confused by the "before 2019" market) mainly for bragging rights if it comes off.
  • On topic I'd rather lay than back. It's possible but not 29% possible.

    Off topic I seem to have stumbled into a niche advocacy group for approval voting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, does Keir want a second referendum or to stop Brexit. They aren't the same.
    They are to most, but not all, second referendum backers. Polling may give it more of a chance now but some will be stunned if a referendum does not stop it.

    Starmer obviously wants to stop it, and labour is getting there- Corbyns more leavers talk us a good smokescreen to preserve leave votes.

    But the direction of travel is very cleAR. Labour won't back a gov deal no matter what, even the rebels seem to agree that. They probsbly wont get a GE. If there were a ref they wouldn't back the gov deal and don't support no deal .

    Therefore labour will move to a position of remain by default, but say they would have backed leave if the Tories had been less deal .

    Cynical but effective.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    There are only two non disastrous outcomes at this point:
    - An EFTA Brexit
    - A referendum in which we decide to Remain

    May fucked up big time not pursuing the first from the outset, and may now be forced down the second path to secure Dominic Grieve’s, Jo Johnson’s, and Chuka’s vote on her “Deal”.

    I’m assuming she gives a tinkers about the country of course, which may be an assumption too far.

    NI requires the Customs Union though according to Barnier, EFTA alone is not enough as no EFTA May in is in the Customs Union.

    May is now proposing the UK stays in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border, Corbyn permanently
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    FF43 said:

    A second referendum is for when people have changed their minds and are looking for an out. This doesn't look like the situation now. A think a full blown crisis is more likely, at which point things get very unpredictable.

    What if the government can't cobble together the votes for the NI backstop and indefinite customs union with adherence to EU Level Playing Field rules plus access to fishing waters and a bunch of other requirements TBD by the EU? Both sides might agree to stop the clock. The UK would still retain the policy of leaving the EU but would not be implementing yet. I would do this by withdrawing the Article 50 application but add a side agreement that sets out the expectations for both sides, which is likely to constrain UK behaviour somewhat. Would the EU and the UK agree to that? To get out the crisis, maybe. In any case I think Article 50 cancellation more likely than a second referendum, because it's got to happen first.

    That Best for Britain poll on the previous thread shows that only 9% of Conservative voters think thebdeal will be better than being in the EU. The only thing left is to convince them that this is true of all possible options.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, does Keir want a second referendum or to stop Brexit. They aren't the same.
    They are to most, but not all, second referendum backers. Polling may give it more of a chance now but some will be stunned if a referendum does not stop it.

    Starmer obviously wants to stop it, and labour is getting there- Corbyns more leavers talk us a good smokescreen to preserve leave votes.

    But the direction of travel is very cleAR. Labour won't back a gov deal no matter what, even the rebels seem to agree that. They probsbly wont get a GE. If there were a ref they wouldn't back the gov deal and don't support no deal .

    Therefore labour will move to a position of remain by default, but say they would have backed leave if the Tories had been less deal .

    Cynical but effective.
    Yes that sums up Labour's position very well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    AndyJS said:

    "Labour's Sir Keir Starmer insists 'Brexit can be stopped' to contradict Jeremy Corbyn"

    https://news.sky.com/story/labours-sir-keir-starmer-insists-brexit-can-be-stopped-to-contradict-jeremy-corbyn-11552239

    Deliberate strategy by both of them. Remainers aren't going to shift from Labour in disappointment as Starmer and co are obviously working toward it. Labour leavers aren't going to shift as the leader occasionally makes noises that we are leaving.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Provided May gets a Deal and it gets through the Commons there will be no EUref2.

    If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal

    That would be brave, foolhardy and suicidal.
    You're right, she will probably try to do it.
    If she wins it she wins it, if not she can stay she tried her best and leave Corbyn with trying to get a Deal and let Boris take over as Tory leader of the Opposition
  • kle4 said:

    The main story on the BBC is that several cabinet members had doubts about Mays plans from the beginning. That has to be a leak from Mays camp right? Because otherwise someone is so stupid as to think saying they thought it was terrible 4 months ago but stuck with it all makes them look good. That's weaker than Johnson excuse for signing up to it then changing his mind after the weekend.

    Just bloody quit the cabinet and bring down the government already, I am so sick of these Tory prevarications - May doesn't have the votes, we all know it, so just end it already.

    Elsewhere, Universal Credit is making people destitute, and the government is telling fibs about badger culls, oh and some old geezer turned up at the cenotaph with the wrong sort of poppy.

    UC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-45893616
    Badgers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46150548

    Is it too cynical to suggest Number 10 is leaking against the government to bury bad news?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Provided May gets a Deal and it gets through the Commons there will be no EUref2.

    If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal

    That would be brave, foolhardy and suicidal.
    You're right, she will probably try to do it.
    If she wins it she wins it, if not she can stay she tried her best and leave Corbyn with trying to get a Deal and let Boris take over as Tory leader of the Opposition
    Wouldn’t May be deposed if she went anywhere near the election lever?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    There can be a second referendum if the Prime Minister so desires. Combined with suspension of Article 50, it would have the combined merits, from her point of view, of kicking the can down the road, extending her time in office, and perhaps even solving the Brexit conundrum.

    What Theresa May ought then to do is what Cameron should have done: announce herself above the fray, and set up a royal commission to examine the various options and frame the ballot question.

    How to buy off the headbanger Brexiteers? That too may not be as hard as it looks. Call their bluff. Give them seats on the commission. Some Brexiteers predicted Britain will be economically better off out. Jacob Rees-Mogg put it at a trillion pounds. Write into the commission's terms of reference that these options will be examined.

    So, will there be a second referendum in 2019? I would not bet against it. In fact, I've just had a token score at 5/2 in Betfair's illiquid market (warning: do not get confused by the "before 2019" market) mainly for bragging rights if it comes off.

    Interesting analysis - it fits with TM's modus operandi, to delay making a final decision and find ways to keep everyone reluctantly acquiescent while she kicks the can down the road.

    I think there are two plausible sequences of events:

    1. May agrees something with the EU, MPs wriggle and shout but in the end the internal opposition fades and it squeaks through.

    2. May agrees something, MPs reject it, Labour proposes a VONC for an election, MPs reject that too, than May says OK, let's have a referendum on my deal vs No Deal. MPs argue about the terms of the referendum and may add a Remain option (it would need an Act of Parliament so would be subject to amendment) but it happens one way or another. The EU agrees to delay A50 for the time needed to see the result.

    The theoretical possibility that May doesn't agree anything with the EU is very unlikely - not in either side's interest not to come up with something.
  • "The results from the 129 councils that responded showed the average amount owed by tenants claiming universal credit across the UK is £662.56. For those still on housing benefit it is £262.50"

    A strange comparison given that those on UC have different demographics (by design) to those on HB
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Provided May gets a Deal and it gets through the Commons there will be no EUref2.

    If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal

    That would be brave, foolhardy and suicidal.
    You're right, she will probably try to do it.
    If she wins it she wins it, if not she can stay she tried her best and leave Corbyn with trying to get a Deal and let Boris take over as Tory leader of the Opposition
    Wouldn’t May be deposed if she went anywhere near the election lever?
    The only thing the Conservative MPs are united around is that May does not fight another election as leader. So yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    eek said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Provided May gets a Deal and it gets through the Commons there will be no EUref2.

    If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal

    That would be brave, foolhardy and suicidal.
    You're right, she will probably try to do it.
    It's such a stupid idea that I can see here going for it.

    While a second referendum isn't a great idea another general election is likely to be far worse for the Conservatives...
    Yes.which is why If May is not to be removed by her cowardly party then she needs to seize the initiative and say she wants a ref on the deal. What harm? She hasn't the votes for the deal anyway so might as well try it and see if the letters come in then. No dealers and remainers claim the public back them, if they won't act in the commons time to see if they are talking crap.

    Edit - fun fact, my autocorrect tried changing 'crap' to 'deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    kle4 said:

    The main story on the BBC is that several cabinet members had doubts about Mays plans from the beginning. That has to be a leak from Mays camp right? Because otherwise someone is so stupid as to think saying they thought it was terrible 4 months ago but stuck with it all makes them look good. That's weaker than Johnson excuse for signing up to it then changing his mind after the weekend.

    Just bloody quit the cabinet and bring down the government already, I am so sick of these Tory prevarications - May doesn't have the votes, we all know it, so just end it already.

    Elsewhere, Universal Credit is making people destitute, and the government is telling fibs about badger culls, oh and some old geezer turned up at the cenotaph with the wrong sort of poppy.

    UC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-45893616
    Badgers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46150548

    Is it too cynical to suggest Number 10 is leaking against the government to bury bad news?
    All other news is flea-bites as against having your head in the Brexit lion's mouth....
  • kle4 said:

    The main story on the BBC is that several cabinet members had doubts about Mays plans from the beginning. That has to be a leak from Mays camp right? Because otherwise someone is so stupid as to think saying they thought it was terrible 4 months ago but stuck with it all makes them look good. That's weaker than Johnson excuse for signing up to it then changing his mind after the weekend.

    Just bloody quit the cabinet and bring down the government already, I am so sick of these Tory prevarications - May doesn't have the votes, we all know it, so just end it already.

    Elsewhere, Universal Credit is making people destitute, and the government is telling fibs about badger culls, oh and some old geezer turned up at the cenotaph with the wrong sort of poppy.

    UC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-45893616
    Badgers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46150548

    Is it too cynical to suggest Number 10 is leaking against the government to bury bad news?
    If so, they are wasting their time. Vast swathes of population have zoned out. As an example, 40% of woman had no idea there had been a Budget a couple of weeks ago, according to one of the polling organizations. They have stopped following news because it is all Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Provided May gets a Deal and it gets through the Commons there will be no EUref2.

    If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal

    That would be brave, foolhardy and suicidal.
    You're right, she will probably try to do it.
    If she wins it she wins it, if not she can stay she tried her best and leave Corbyn with trying to get a Deal and let Boris take over as Tory leader of the Opposition
    Wouldn’t May be deposed if she went anywhere near the election lever?
    So what? She doesn't have enough votes for her main policy anyway so it's pathetic the party haven't deposed her already. Sure other options aren't great but if they don't back her in sufficient numbers - and they don't, even the cabinet are still leaking they've been against the plans from the beginning - then it is pointless to keep her going.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    There can be a second referendum if the Prime Minister so desires. Combined with suspension of Article 50, it would have the combined merits, from her point of view, of kicking the can down the road, extending her time in office, and perhaps even solving the Brexit conundrum.

    What Theresa May ought then to do is what Cameron should have done: announce herself above the fray, and set up a royal commission to examine the various options and frame the ballot question.

    How to buy off the headbanger Brexiteers? That too may not be as hard as it looks. Call their bluff. Give them seats on the commission. Some Brexiteers predicted Britain will be economically better off out. Jacob Rees-Mogg put it at a trillion pounds. Write into the commission's terms of reference that these options will be examined.

    So, will there be a second referendum in 2019? I would not bet against it. In fact, I've just had a token score at 5/2 in Betfair's illiquid market (warning: do not get confused by the "before 2019" market) mainly for bragging rights if it comes off.

    Interesting analysis - it fits with TM's modus operandi, to delay making a final decision and find ways to keep everyone reluctantly acquiescent while she kicks the can down the road.

    I think there are two plausible sequences of events:

    1. May agrees something with the EU, MPs wriggle and shout but in the end the internal opposition fades and it squeaks through.

    2. May agrees something, MPs reject it, Labour proposes a VONC for an election, MPs reject that too, than May says OK, let's have a referendum on my deal vs No Deal. MPs argue about the terms of the referendum and may add a Remain option (it would need an Act of Parliament so would be subject to amendment) but it happens one way or another. The EU agrees to delay A50 for the time needed to see the result.

    The theoretical possibility that May doesn't agree anything with the EU is very unlikely - not in either side's interest not to come up with something.
    This is also my analysis.
    Of course any referendum is unpredictable, despite the lazy assumptions of Remain High Command.

    I still think the most likely outcome this time year is that we will have Brexited. But I’d put Remaining as high as 40%.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited November 2018

    There can be a second referendum if the Prime Minister so desires. Combined with suspension of Article 50, it would have the combined merits, from her point of view, of kicking the can down the road, extending her time in office, and perhaps even solving the Brexit conundrum.

    What Theresa May ought then to do is what Cameron should have done: announce herself above the fray, and set up a royal commission to examine the various options and frame the ballot question.

    How to buy off the headbanger Brexiteers? That too may not be as hard as it looks. Call their bluff. Give them seats on the commission. Some Brexiteers predicted Britain will be economically better off out. Jacob Rees-Mogg put it at a trillion pounds. Write into the commission's terms of reference that these options will be examined.

    So, will there be a second referendum in 2019? I would not bet against it. In fact, I've just had a token score at 5/2 in Betfair's illiquid market (warning: do not get confused by the "before 2019" market) mainly for bragging rights if it comes off.

    Interesting analysis - it fits with TM's modus operandi, to delay making a final decision and find ways to keep everyone reluctantly acquiescent while she kicks the can down the road.

    I think there are two plausible sequences of events:

    1. May agrees something with the EU, MPs wriggle and shout but in the end the internal opposition fades and it squeaks through.

    2. May agrees something, MPs reject it, Labour proposes a VONC for an election, MPs reject that too, than May says OK, let's have a referendum on my deal vs No Deal. MPs argue about the terms of the referendum and may add a Remain option (it would need an Act of Parliament so would be subject to amendment) but it happens one way or another. The EU agrees to delay A50 for the time needed to see the result.

    The theoretical possibility that May doesn't agree anything with the EU is very unlikely - not in either side's interest not to come up with something.
    Sorry PB to repeat my question of last week but in the case of your option 2, what is the constitutional position?

    Parliament rejects the deal. What power does the PM have to do what?

    Edit: or, constitutionally, does she have to keep going until parliament agrees an option?
  • There can be a second referendum if the Prime Minister so desires. Combined with suspension of Article 50, it would have the combined merits, from her point of view, of kicking the can down the road, extending her time in office, and perhaps even solving the Brexit conundrum.

    What Theresa May ought then to do is what Cameron should have done: announce herself above the fray, and set up a royal commission to examine the various options and frame the ballot question.

    How to buy off the headbanger Brexiteers? That too may not be as hard as it looks. Call their bluff. Give them seats on the commission. Some Brexiteers predicted Britain will be economically better off out. Jacob Rees-Mogg put it at a trillion pounds. Write into the commission's terms of reference that these options will be examined.

    So, will there be a second referendum in 2019? I would not bet against it. In fact, I've just had a token score at 5/2 in Betfair's illiquid market (warning: do not get confused by the "before 2019" market) mainly for bragging rights if it comes off.

    Interesting analysis - it fits with TM's modus operandi, to delay making a final decision and find ways to keep everyone reluctantly acquiescent while she kicks the can down the road.

    I think there are two plausible sequences of events:

    1. May agrees something with the EU, MPs wriggle and shout but in the end the internal opposition fades and it squeaks through.

    2. May agrees something, MPs reject it, Labour proposes a VONC for an election, MPs reject that too, than May says OK, let's have a referendum on my deal vs No Deal. MPs argue about the terms of the referendum and may add a Remain option (it would need an Act of Parliament so would be subject to amendment) but it happens one way or another. The EU agrees to delay A50 for the time needed to see the result.

    The theoretical possibility that May doesn't agree anything with the EU is very unlikely - not in either side's interest not to come up with something.
    The other option is the one May has actually said she would do. If no deal with EU, or her deal falls in Commons, then it would be up to Parliament to decide what next.

    I'm not expert on proposing Bills etc. But, maybe we might see a series of votes on various alternatives put by backbenchers or amendments to something else. Or even a Bill launched in the Lords by Adonis.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    There can be a second referendum if the Prime Minister so desires. Combined with suspension of Article 50, it would have the combined merits, from her point of view, of kicking the can down the road, extending her time in office, and perhaps even solving the Brexit conundrum.

    What Theresa May ought then to do is what Cameron should have done: announce herself above the fray, and set up a royal commission to examine the various options and frame the ballot question.

    How to buy off the headbanger Brexiteers? That too may not be as hard as it looks. Call their bluff. Give them seats on the commission. Some Brexiteers predicted Britain will be economically better off out. Jacob Rees-Mogg put it at a trillion pounds. Write into the commission's terms of reference that these options will be examined.

    So, will there be a second referendum in 2019? I would not bet against it. In fact, I've just had a token score at 5/2 in Betfair's illiquid market (warning: do not get confused by the "before 2019" market) mainly for bragging rights if it comes off.

    Interesting analysis - it fits with TM's modus operandi, to delay making a final decision and find ways to keep everyone reluctantly acquiescent while she kicks the can down the road.

    I think there are two plausible sequences of events:

    1. May agrees something with the EU, MPs wriggle and shout but in the end the internal opposition fades and it squeaks through.

    2. May agrees something, MPs reject it, Labour proposes a VONC for an election, MPs reject that too, than May says OK, let's have a referendum on my deal vs No Deal. MPs argue about the terms of the referendum and may add a Remain option (it would need an Act of Parliament so would be subject to amendment) but it happens one way or another. The EU agrees to delay A50 for the time needed to see the result.

    The theoretical possibility that May doesn't agree anything with the EU is very unlikely - not in either side's interest not to come up with something.
    That's pretty weak. It's not in either sides interest to push things this far either but they have. That sort of thinking is little different from the kind of 'it'll all be easy ' Brexiteer.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited November 2018
    On topic I think 29% is about right, maybe a touch on the low side. What I think people are missing is that a referendum could do a lot to protect the Prime Minister. Currently it looks like her party will only tolerate her until Brexit is done, so she needs to change the game, and a referendum changes the game one way or another:

    * If Remain wins then her short-term headache goes away and she puts her headbanger enemies on the wrong side of public opinion.

    * If she has a deal and the voters vote for it, that's an endorsement of her policy, victory!

    * If there's no deal then she has a nice opportunity to pivot from sunlit uplands and more money for the NHS to patriotic blood, sweat and tears standing strong against Johnny Foreigner.

    * If there's a deal but the voters reject it then that's bad for her, but she can avoid that by not making a "reject the deal" option, unless there's no deal to reject.

    Obviously getting such a thing through parliament without the Conservative Party stringing her up from a lamppost isn't a trivial problem, but a crisis can be an incumbent's friend, especially when the alternatives don't exactly project "safe pair of hands".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    There can be a second referendum if the Prime Minister so desires. Combined with suspension of Article 50, it would have the combined merits, from her point of view, of kicking the can down the road, extending her time in office, and perhaps even solving the Brexit conundrum.

    What Theresa May ought then to do is what Cameron should have done: announce herself above the fray, and set up a royal commission to examine the various options and frame the ballot question.

    How to buy off the headbanger Brexiteers? That too may not be as hard as it looks. Call their bluff. Give them seats on the commission. Some Brexiteers predicted Britain will be economically better off out. Jacob Rees-Mogg put it at a trillion pounds. Write into the commission's terms of reference that these options will be examined.

    So, will there be a second referendum in 2019? I would not bet against it. In fact, I've just had a token score at 5/2 in Betfair's illiquid market (warning: do not get confused by the "before 2019" market) mainly for bragging rights if it comes off.

    Interesting analysis - it fits with TM's modus operandi, to delay making a final decision and find ways to keep everyone reluctantly acquiescent while she kicks the can down the road.

    I think there are two plausible sequences of events:

    1. May agrees something with the EU, MPs wriggle and shout but in the end the internal opposition fades and it squeaks through.

    2. May agrees something, MPs reject it, Labour proposes a VONC for an election, MPs reject that too, than May says OK, let's have a referendum on my deal vs No Deal. MPs argue about the terms of the referendum and may add a Remain option (it would need an Act of Parliament so would be subject to amendment) but it happens one way or another. The EU agrees to delay A50 for the time needed to see the result.

    The theoretical possibility that May doesn't agree anything with the EU is very unlikely - not in either side's interest not to come up with something.
    The other option is the one May has actually said she would do. If no deal with EU, or her deal falls in Commons, then it would be up to Parliament to decide what next.

    I'm not expert on proposing Bills etc. But, maybe we might see a series of votes on various alternatives put by backbenchers or amendments to something else. Or even a Bill launched in the Lords by Adonis.
    All taking months. By which time we would be out of the EU.

    Or perhaps an emergency vote to ask for an A50 extension.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Voters across large swathes of northern England and parts of urban Scotland, who opted for Leave in the referendum, believed Brexit offered them a better future. When the outcome is agreed, they will have to come to terms with the realisation that no such future is on offer — whether it is Mrs May’s compromise agreement, which is likely to satisfy few but might be a workable deal, or whether it is the hard Brexit that her opponents have forced on us.

    At that stage disillusion will set in. We will not, I guess, see mass demonstrations in George Square, nor tanks on the streets. But the sense of betrayal will hang in the air and those charged with delivering a better deal for their country will not lightly be forgiven. Yesterday General Sir Nick Carter, chief of the general staff, spoke of the armistice as “shedding a light on the past and offering a beacon for the future”. We have seen the light. The beacon, however, looks very dim indeed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d83fcb2c-e5d9-11e8-a9c0-ffbf0f2a8629
  • Scott_P said:

    Voters across large swathes of northern England and parts of urban Scotland, who opted for Leave in the referendum, believed Brexit offered them a better future. When the outcome is agreed, they will have to come to terms with the realisation that no such future is on offer — whether it is Mrs May’s compromise agreement, which is likely to satisfy few but might be a workable deal, or whether it is the hard Brexit that her opponents have forced on us.

    At that stage disillusion will set in. We will not, I guess, see mass demonstrations in George Square, nor tanks on the streets. But the sense of betrayal will hang in the air and those charged with delivering a better deal for their country will not lightly be forgiven. Yesterday General Sir Nick Carter, chief of the general staff, spoke of the armistice as “shedding a light on the past and offering a beacon for the future”. We have seen the light. The beacon, however, looks very dim indeed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d83fcb2c-e5d9-11e8-a9c0-ffbf0f2a8629

    Blimey, that's stronging it a bit. Has Michael "who dares wins" Portillo got a new job writing Times leaders?
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Pulpstar said:

    Starmer's tweet is a bit odd - a second ref is only happening if Labour wins a GE I think.

    If Labour backs a referendum there may well be enough Tories willing to do the same to get it through Parliament. But it’s not going to happen. The last thing the Labour leadership wants is for Brexit to be delayed. They see huge opportunities in it happening.

    Apart from the greater opportunities for state intervention, nationalisation etc there is an electorally significant slice of floating leave voters backing the Tories and previously UKIP who could be enticed back to Labour once Brexit is achieved , electorally significant because this potential vote switch could break the current opinion poll deadlock going forward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Starmer's tweet is a bit odd - a second ref is only happening if Labour wins a GE I think.

    If Labour backs a referendum there may well be enough Tories willing to do the same to get it through Parliament. But it’s not going to happen. The last thing the Labour leadership wants is for Brexit to be delayed. They see huge opportunities in it happening.

    Apart from the greater opportunities for state intervention, nationalisation etc there is an electorally significant slice of floating leave voters backing the Tories and previously UKIP who could be enticed back to Labour once Brexit is achieved , electorally significant because this potential vote switch could break the current opinion poll deadlock going forward.
    But if Corbyn backs Brexit they will be matched by Labour Remainers moving to the LDs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Provided May gets a Deal and it gets through the Commons there will be no EUref2.

    If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal

    That would be brave, foolhardy and suicidal.
    You're right, she will probably try to do it.
    If she wins it she wins it, if not she can stay she tried her best and leave Corbyn with trying to get a Deal and let Boris take over as Tory leader of the Opposition
    Wouldn’t May be deposed if she went anywhere near the election lever?
    Not if she has won a no confidence vote beforehand then she cannot be replaced for a year
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Other than another referendum which would be completely undemocratic does any one here have any suggestions as to what May should do. Its easy to say that she should have negotiated better but it is apparaent that the EU will make only very limited concessions, which is why Boris's ramblings are plain stupid as the EU will simply not agree to them. Its like me saying I will only agree to marry Emma Watson, despite her having absolutely no interest in marrying me, and then writing a load of nonsense about how any other marriage i have in the future being a disaster, as Emma Watson won't marry me.
  • rkrkrk said:
    The really interesting part is the possible involvement of Number 10. Otherwise, it is just a web of right wing pressure groups which will not surprise the tin foil brigade.
  • F1: interesting little stat I noticed. Hulkenberg, likely to win best of the rest, has 6 DNFs to Sainz's 2. The Spaniard only has one more points finish, and trails his team mate by 45 points to 69.

    Hulkenberg will likely have stern competition from Ricciardo next year, but that's a very impressive performance against Sainz.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    HYUFD said:
    Spain giving advice to other EU countries on holding referendums shows some neck. Maybe in that second referendum we should have the police go into to Leave voting polling stations with truncheons drawn?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    currystar said:

    Other than another referendum which would be completely undemocratic

    Still not immediately obvious why more voting is undemocratic...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    TOPPING said:

    There can be a second referendum if the Prime Minister so desires. Combined with suspension of Article 50, it would have the combined merits, from her point of view, of kicking the can down the road, extending her time in office, and perhaps even solving the Brexit conundrum.

    What Theresa May ought then to do is what Cameron should have done: announce herself above the fray, and set up a royal commission to examine the various options and frame the ballot question.

    How to buy off the headbanger Brexiteers? That too may not be as hard as it looks. Call their bluff. Give them seats on the commission. Some Brexiteers predicted Britain will be economically better off out. Jacob Rees-Mogg put it at a trillion pounds. Write into the commission's terms of reference that these options will be examined.

    So, will there be a second referendum in 2019? I would not bet against it. In fact, I've just had a token score at 5/2 in Betfair's illiquid market (warning: do not get confused by the "before 2019" market) mainly for bragging rights if it comes off.

    Interesting analysis - it fits with TM's modus operandi, to delay making a final decision and find ways to keep everyone reluctantly acquiescent while she kicks the can down the road.

    I think there are two plausible sequences of events:

    1. May agrees something with the EU, MPs wriggle and shout but in the end the internal opposition fades and it squeaks through.

    2. May agrees something, MPs reject it, Labour proposes a VONC for an election, MPs reject that too, than May says OK, let's have a referendum on my deal vs No Deal. MPs argue about the terms of the referendum and may add a Remain option (it would need an Act of Parliament so would be subject to amendment) but it happens one way or another. The EU agrees to delay A50 for the time needed to see the result.

    The theoretical possibility that May doesn't agree anything with the EU is very unlikely - not in either side's interest not to come up with something.
    The other option is the one May has actually said she would do. If no deal with EU, or her deal falls in Commons, then it would be up to Parliament to decide what next.

    I'm not expert on proposing Bills etc. But, maybe we might see a series of votes on various alternatives put by backbenchers or amendments to something else. Or even a Bill launched in the Lords by Adonis.
    All taking months. By which time we would be out of the EU.

    Or perhaps an emergency vote to ask for an A50 extension.
    Again, why would the EU grant it? They seem relaxed with either option of us leaving with No Deal or capitulating to their terms - why delay that outcome?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    So what does this chap think should happen, we give into the EU completely, or we just ignore the referendum result. Its so easy to say the Brexit process is going badly , its much harder to give solutions.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    Other than another referendum which would be completely undemocratic

    Still not immediately obvious why more voting is undemocratic...
    Beacuse Remian lost, its undemocratic to keep voting until you get the result you want
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    rkrkrk said:
    The really interesting part is the possible involvement of Number 10. Otherwise, it is just a web of right wing pressure groups which will not surprise the tin foil brigade.
    I for one am shocked that the taxpayers alliance is involved in anything dodgy...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    currystar said:

    Beacuse Remian lost, its undemocratic to keep voting until you get the result you want

    Labour lost the last election.

    It's undemocratic to keep voting until they win...
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    Beacuse Remian lost, its undemocratic to keep voting until you get the result you want

    Labour lost the last election.

    It's undemocratic to keep voting until they win...
    How is a referendum the same as a General Election?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:

    currystar said:

    Other than another referendum which would be completely undemocratic

    Still not immediately obvious why more voting is undemocratic...
    Beacuse Remian lost, its undemocratic to keep voting until you get the result you want
    Yes, I forget that oppositions never call for a GE mid-term. Or that PM's call them mid-term.

    It's clear that the 2016 referendum has ended up in a situation that is unworkable, partly because the Brexiteers are such a bunch of clueless incompetent fuckwits. And that's me being polite about the hopeless shitting nationalistic amoeba-brains such as Farage, IDS and Davis.

    A second referendum seems, on the face of it, an easy way out. Unfortunately I see little chance of it giving a much clearer result either way than we had in 2016.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    currystar said:


    How is a referendum the same as a General Election?

    It's a vote.

    Voting is not undemocratic, no matter how many times you do it.
  • HYUFD said:
    Spain giving advice to other EU countries on holding referendums shows some neck. Maybe in that second referendum we should have the police go into to Leave voting polling stations with truncheons drawn?

    The thick as pigshit right is no longer in power in Spain.

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